Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction lies in limited improvement in the spot market, with downstream replenishment falling short of expectations. Caustic soda production remains at a high level, leading to continuous supply pressure. In terms of valuation, the price of liquid chlorine is moderately strong, and the chlor - alkali profit stays at a medium - high level, weakening cost support, and alkali plants have no motivation for active production cuts [3]. - There is still an expectation for the alkali - stocking demand of downstream aluminum plants from November to December, which may support the spot market. However, the production of caustic soda remains high, resulting in significant supply pressure. The spot market improvement is limited, and the delivery volume of major aluminum plants remains high. Also, the caustic - chlorine profit is decent, so alkali plants have no incentive to cut production actively [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Content Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.50%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 5.9% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2400 - 2450) to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. They can also sell call options (SH601C2400, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 50) to collect premiums and lower costs. If the price rises, the selling price of the spot can be locked [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory for procurement and wishing to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2200 - 2250) to prevent cost increases due to price hikes and lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SH601P2200, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 50) to collect premiums and lower procurement costs. If the price drops, the purchase price of the spot can be locked [2]. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 17, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2438, down 44 (-1.77%) from November 14; the 09 contract was 2525, down 61 (-2.36%); the 01 contract was 2291, down 36 (-1.55%) [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 17, 2025, the 32 - alkali ex - factory price of Shandong Jinling was 2344, down 62.5 (-2.6%) from November 14. The 50 - alkali ex - factory price of Jinling was 2360, down 20 (-0.8%) [5][7]. Price Differences - **Brand/Regional Price Differences**: On November 17, 2025, the difference between Shandong 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali was 16, up 42.5 from November 14. Other differences such as Jiangsu 49 - alkali minus 32 - alkali remained unchanged [8]. - **Monthly Price Differences**: On November 17, 2025, the monthly difference (5 - 9) was - 87, up 17 from November 14; the monthly difference (9 - 1) was 234, down 25; the monthly difference (1 - 5) was - 147, up 8 [5].

国债期货日报 2025/11/17 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策操作 盘面点评： 周一期债开盘后冲高，此后窄幅震荡，品种全线收涨。资金面再度收紧，DR001在1.51%附近。公开市场逆 回购2830亿，6M买断式逆回购8000亿，超额续作5000亿，净投放9631亿。 重要资讯： 受中日关系恶化影响，A股今日走弱，对债市略有助益。若资本市场风险情绪持续走弱，债市或能继续受益， 但当前资金面再度转紧，一定程度上不利于市场拓展空间。短期债市仍然缺乏热点，预计维持震荡，中期在 基本面支持下仍有上涨空间。操作上，中期多单继续持有，短线低位多单可逢高了结。 国债期货日度数据 | | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-14 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-14 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.478 | 102.446 | 0.032 | TS合约持仓(手） | 82762 | 80625 ...

油脂产业风险管理日报 2025/11/17 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油脂价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆油：8000-8500 | 11.5% | 2.4% | | 菜油：9300-10300 | 10.4% | 0.1% | | 棕榈油：8400-9000 | 20.2% | 24.1% | source： 南华研究 油脂套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保 | 买卖 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 敞口 | | 工具 | 方向 | （%） | 间 | | 贸易商库存 | 油脂库存偏高，担心油脂价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆油期货来锁定利 | Y260 | 卖出 | 25% | 8400-850 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan, License No. Z0022723 [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - **Price Range Forecast (Monthly)** - Coking Coal: 1100 - 1350 [3] - Coke: 1550 - 1850 [3] - **Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling)** - Coking Coal: 36.02% [3] - Coke: 28.42% [3] - **Current Volatility Historical Percentile** - Coking Coal: 69.61% [3] - Coke: 60.19% [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Hedging** - Scenario: Steel mills' profit margins are shrinking, making it difficult for coke producers to raise prices. Coke producers are worried about future price drops and want to lock in sales prices in advance. - Strategy: Short the Coke 2601 contract. - Hedging Tool: J2601 (Sell) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1780, 1830); 50% at (1830 - 1880) [3] - **Procurement Management** - Scenario: Macroeconomic sentiment is fluctuating. Coking coal mine production rates are seasonally low. Factors such as over - production checks and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter are affecting coking coal supply. Coking plants are worried about future price increases and want to lock in procurement prices in advance. - Strategy: Long the Coking Coal 2605 contract. - Hedging Tool: JM2605 (Buy) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1150, 1180); 50% at (1120, 1150) [3] Group 4: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 11 - 17 | 2025 - 11 - 14 | 2025 - 11 - 10 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 108272 | 111927 | 128592 | - 3655 | - 20320 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tons | 150567 | 144083 | 127028 | 6484 | 23539 | | Iron Ore | Lots | 900 | 900 | 800 | 0 | 100 | | Coking Coal | Lots | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | | Coke | Lots | 2070 | 2070 | 2070 | 0 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Contracts | 8450 | 8450 | 5699 | 0 | 2751 | | Ferromanganese | Contracts | 19863 | 18663 | 14358 | 1200 | 5505 | [4] Group 5: Core Logic and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Logic** - Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized stable energy production and supply and peak - period energy security, but this is a routine policy and not the core reason for the downward trend in the futures market. - The key factors are the large increase in coking coal and thermal coal spot prices, low acceptance from downstream users, strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and miners' fear of high prices leading to faster sales. - Downstream steel mills' losses are increasing, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance, iron - water production is expected to decline, and coal - coke demand is seasonally weakening. It is difficult for the fourth round of coke price increases to be implemented. - In the short term, futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure. In the long term, over - production checks and safety production policies will limit coking coal supply elasticity. With the upcoming winter storage demand, the downward space for coking coal spot prices is limited. [4] - **Strategy Recommendations** - Coking Coal reference range: (1100, 1350); Coke reference range: (1600, 1850). If prices fall to the lower end of the range and show signs of stabilization and rebound, consider going long. [4] Group 6:利多 and利空解读 - **利多解读** - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of "anti - cut - throat competition" and "over - production checks" policies, domestic mine production rates face a theoretical upper limit, restricting coking coal supply elasticity. - As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market outlook has improved significantly, and this year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coal - coke prices. [6] - **利空解读** - Recently, steel mills' profits have been damaged, the number of maintenance steel mills has increased, iron - water production has decreased month - on - month, end - users generally believe that current coking coal spot prices are too high, and their willingness to purchase is low. Coal - coke demand has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustment. [7] Group 7: Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices** - Multiple indicators such as coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contracts, and related ratios (e.g., coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc.) are provided with specific values and their daily and weekly changes. [8] - **Spot Prices** - Spot prices of various coking coal and coke products, including domestic and imported ones, are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. Import and export profits for different types of coal and coke are also presented. [9][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the pulp and offset paper futures prices are consolidating with a slight downward trend, which is in line with previous expectations. Pulp spot prices are relatively stable after a general decline last Friday. Affected by negative macro - sentiment and a 10.2 - ton increase in port inventory, the futures prices are still slightly down, but supported by the shutdown of some pulp mills. Offset paper spot prices are also stable and in a range - bound state. In the short term, both pulp and offset paper are expected to maintain a volatile trend with a slightly lower price center [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4750 - 5600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.88% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.74%. For offset printing paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 9.10% and a historical percentile of 48.83% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory of finished products (softwood pulp/offset paper) worried about price drops, strategies include short - selling pulp/offset paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedge ratio in the ranges of 5500 - 5600 and 4350 - 4400 respectively, and selling call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4400) at 25% hedge ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For paper - making enterprises with low inventory, strategies include buying pulp/offset paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedge ratio in the ranges of 5150 - 5250 and 4100 - 4150 respectively, and selling put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) at 25% hedge ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. Strategy Recommendations - **Pulp**: In the futures market, short - sell on rallies in the short - term and continue to focus on the 12 - 01 reverse spread. In the options market, stay on the sidelines for now [5]. - **Offset Paper**: In the futures market, short - sell on rallies in the short - term. In the options market, stay on the sidelines for now [6]. Market Factors - **Positive Factors**: Some pulp mills have shut down, and tariffs on the US remain unchanged [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Macro - sentiment has weakened, port inventory is high and difficult to reduce, and pulp spot prices have generally declined [7][8]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 17, 2025, SP11 closed at 4890 with a daily decline of 0.79% and a weekly increase of 0.57%. OP01 closed at 4260 with a daily decline of 0.85% and a weekly decline of 1.25%. There are also various inter - contract spreads provided [13]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On November 17, 2025, the pulp spot price in Shandong was 5483, in South China was 5870, and in the Yangtze River Delta was 5621. On November 14, 2025, the double - offset paper spot price in Shandong was 4750, in Guangdong was 4850, and in Jiangsu was 4750. Regional price differences are also provided [14]. Basis Data - **Pulp Basis**: The daily changes in pulp basis for different regions and contracts are provided, such as the basis of Shandong Yinxing - SP11 was 660 on November 12, 2025, with a daily decline of 2 and a weekly increase of 46 [8]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily changes in offset paper basis for different regions and contracts are provided, such as the basis of Shandong Chenming - OP01 was 490 on November 17, 2025, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly increase of 54 [8].

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 Key Points 1. Price Range Forecast and Volatility - Urea price range forecast (monthly): 1650 - 1950, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.16%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 62.1% [2] - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2250 - 2500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [2] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [2] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [2] 2. Urea Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - Scenario: High finished - product inventory, worried about urea price decline. - Strategy: Short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, buy put options to prevent sharp price drops, and sell call options to reduce capital costs. - Hedging tools and directions: Sell UR2601, buy UR2601P1850, sell UR2601C1950. - Hedging ratios: 25% for futures, 50% for put options, and relevant for call options. - Suggested entry intervals: 1800 - 1950 for futures, 15 - 20 for put options, 45 - 60 for call options [2] Procurement Management - Scenario: Low procurement of regular inventory, hope to purchase according to order situation. - Strategy: Buy urea futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. - Hedging tools and directions: Buy UR2601, sell UR2601P1650. - Hedging ratios: 50% for futures, 75% for put options. - Suggested entry intervals: 1650 - 1750 for futures, 20 - 25 for put options [2] 3. Core Market Analysis - Core contradiction: In November, high urea daily production under policy support and profit repair pressures prices, but export policy adjustments relieve the pressure, and rising coal prices also support urea. The market is in a range between fundamentals and policy, with short - term prices expected to oscillate [3] - Bullish factors: Urea exports are confirmed. Futures are expected to show wide - range oscillations with stronger downside support due to speculative pricing [4] - Bearish factors: Domestic policy pressure requires factories to sell urea at low prices, negatively affecting spot sentiment [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Methanol continues its downward trend. The 01 contract may continue to decline as the fundamentals offer no support, and the pressure on ports is hard to relieve due to increased shipments from Iran. It is recommended to hold the previous short - call positions, and conduct 12 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [1]. - The short - term trend of methanol is range - bound, with the 2601 contract expected to trade between 1900 - 2200. It is suggested to reduce the short - put options of methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [12]. - The 1 - 5 spread has weakened this week mainly because of the increased shipments from Iran [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Methanol is in a downward trend. The 01 contract's fundamentals lack support. Although there was a rebound in the market due to industry protests against low prices, inland methanol enterprises still have profits. The increased shipments from Iran have made it difficult to relieve the pressure on ports. Despite the relatively strong thermal coal prices, they cannot provide cost support for Henan methanol. The higher - than - usual temperature in Iran may delay gas restrictions until mid - November. The November shipments have exceeded expectations, and port inventories are likely to remain high. Later, the port will flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market will decline [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2036, with the futures price dropping significantly and the 01 basis strengthening by 10 [11]. - **Calendar - spread Strategy**: This week, as the shipments from Iran continued to accelerate, the market no longer expects early gas restrictions this year, and the 1 - 5 spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation [11]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to trade in a range in the short term. The 2601 contract is expected to trade between 1900 - 2200. It is recommended to reduce the short - put options of methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [12]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - There are records of the implementation status of previous strategies, including the holding of short - put, short - call, 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage strategies, as well as the stop - profit of long positions [19]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - There are various charts showing the inventory situation of methanol ports, including the weekly inventory seasonality of Chinese methanol ports, the inventory seasonality of methanol ports in different regions, and the inventory situation of warehouses in Jiangsu Province [35]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [61]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management under different scenarios, including using futures and options for hedging [61]. - **Positive Information**: The second - phase 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong is expected to start production as early as the end of November [62]. - **Negative Information**: Iran's shipments were 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, and 0.69 million tons in November [63]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The fundamentals offer limited support. Although producers in the production areas have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics and transportation, they still intend to maintain low inventories and mainly sell at reduced prices in the first half of the week. Downstream demand has decreased, and some traders are short - selling, causing the market in the sales areas to decline synchronously [65]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Inland Market**: In the second half of the week, the external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in Inner Mongolia boosted market sentiment. As the methanol prices in the production areas have reached the bottom, traders are cautious about short - selling, and some buyers have entered the market for procurement, leading to a halt in the decline and a stabilization in the inland market [66]. - **Port Market**: Under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak downward trend next week [66]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 1 - 5 spread has weakened this week mainly because of the increased shipments from Iran [73]. Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking - There are various price charts showing the prices of coal, methanol in different markets, and related products over different time periods [77][78][82]. 4.2 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - There are charts showing the production costs and profits of methanol produced from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, coke oven gas) in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Shandong, etc.) [89][90][93]. 4.3 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Production and Operation Rate Tracking - There are charts showing the weekly operating rates of different methanol production methods (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal combined - alcohol, natural gas, etc.) and downstream products (MTO, MTBE, acetic acid, etc.) [96][99][100]. 4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - There are charts showing the import volumes of methanol from different countries (Malaysia, Venezuela, Iran), the external market structure of methanol, and the import profits of Iranian methanol [129][130]. 4.5 Overseas Operation Tracking - There are charts showing the weekly capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol, the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants, and the weekly production volumes of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol [133][134][136]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data of methanol from January to December 2025, including production, consumption, and inventory changes [140]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - This week, in domestic methanol plants, there were both maintenance and restarts in the Northwest. Some plants in Shandong and Inner Mongolia restarted, while some plants in East China were shut down for maintenance. Some plants in Central China restarted but have not yet produced products [141]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO plants such as Xingxing and Chengzhi have resumed or increased their loads. The second - phase MTO of Lianhong is planned to be completed earlier than expected and has started stockpiling. Iran maintains high shipments [145].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, China's corn production is expected to reach 300 million tons for the first time in history. With the harvest almost complete, the supply - demand structure is gradually moving towards balance. In the long - term, there is a tight supply expectation under mild production increase pressure, weakening import pressure, and stable demand [1]. - In the short - term, the corn market has shown a strong performance due to reduced supply and downstream price - raising purchases. However, the price may face intermittent pressure as the selling peak at the end of the year tests its resilience [1]. - The corn starch market has also run strongly this week, supported by rising raw material prices, good order shipments, and tight local supply [1]. - The CBOT corn futures rose more than 1% this week, but the bearish November supply - demand data led to a sharp decline on Friday, erasing most of the gains from Monday to Thursday [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: In the Northeast, state reserve purchases support the market, and in North China, the reluctance to sell has reduced short - term supply. The downstream's price - raising purchases have supported the weekly strength of the corn market. China's corn production increase is certain, and the market is still digesting the price pressure from the production increase. The corn price is mainly oscillating at the bottom [7]. - **Long - term trading expectations**: China's corn supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With a sharp reduction in corn and substitute grain imports and a possible decrease in high - quality corn production in North China, the medium - term supply - demand structure may tighten. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth - quarter supply peak, and buyers should pay attention to the participation opportunities at the price bottom [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The sign of the end of the pull - back is more obvious, and the probability of finding the bottom continues to increase. Technically, the 01 contract is supported at the 2100 - yuan mark and rebounds along the 5 - day moving average [8]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Mid - and downstream enterprises should be aware of the risk of rising long - term procurement costs. Grain - holding entities with low - cost inventory can consider partial inventory hedging at high prices to avoid pull - back risks [8]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: - **Basis strategy**: The spot and futures prices are moving in sync, with a weaker increase in the production area. The port basis fluctuates narrowly, and no strategy is recommended [8]. - **Monthly spread strategy**: The decrease in spot supply has led the near - month 01 contract to perform strongly, narrowing the spread between near - and far - month contracts. The "sell near, buy far" strategy is temporarily withdrawn for observation [8]. - **Hedging arbitrage strategy**: Due to the fundamentals of soybeans and corn, it is not suitable for inter - variety arbitrage. The wheat - corn spread has narrowed but is still outside the substitution range. The starch - corn spread has little change, and the "buy starch, sell corn" arbitrage is not recommended for now. The pig - grain ratio's rebound space is uncertain, and arbitrage is on hold [11][12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.25% and a volatility percentile of 38.4%. For starch, it is 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a volatility of 7.81% and a volatility percentile of 15.39% [18]. - **Risk strategies for the fourth quarter**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts, with corresponding scenarios, hedging tools, trading directions, and suggested entry intervals [18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: State reserve purchases continue to support the market, the early sales progress is fast, and farmers' reluctance to sell has reduced the effective circulating grain sources. Terminal enterprises have to raise prices to increase arrivals [19]. - **Negative information**: The increase in U.S. corn supply pressure due to the bearish USDA supply - demand report, and the possible increase in selling pressure after the price rises [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monitor whether the price increase stimulates an increase in selling pressure [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The corn futures market has continued to strengthen this week. The main 01 contract rose 1.68% to 2185 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest, a slight increase in trading volume, and an increase in registered positions. The starch market has also strengthened in sync with corn, with a similar increase rate [20][21]. - **International market**: The CBOT corn futures rose more than 1% this week but fell sharply on Friday due to bearish supply - demand data, and the rebound trend has weakened [53]. 3.3.2 Basis, Monthly Spread, and Starch - Corn Spread - **Basis structure**: After the new season started, the basis between the mainstream price at Jinzhou Port and the main contract is in a reasonable range, with little change. However, the basis in the production areas has weakened [25]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The spread between near - and far - month corn contracts has weakened this week, and the term structure has flattened. The starch basis in the main production areas has also weakened [35]. - **Starch - corn spread**: The spread has fluctuated slightly this week, and the "buy starch, sell corn" arbitrage is not recommended for now [49]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Planting profit**: It is better than last year, especially in the Northeast production area [57]. - **Trading profit**: The stable and strengthening corn price is conducive to trading enterprises' purchasing and sales activities, and the inventory profit is improving [57]. - **Deep - processing profit**: The profit from corn - to - starch has slightly declined due to the rebound in corn prices and limited follow - up of starch spot prices. The profit from the corn - to - ethanol industry has continued to decline [57]. - **Disk profit**: The basis at Jinzhou Port is neutral, and the disk profit is not obvious. There is hedging profit for far - month contracts, but considering the bottom of the spot price, it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [57]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn has increased as the domestic price has risen more strongly than the international price [59]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - **China's corn**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in planting area, production, import, consumption, and inventory in different years. The annual surplus is expected to be 3.55 million tons in 2025/26 [63]. - **Global corn**: The world's corn supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in beginning inventory, production, import, consumption, export, and ending inventory in different years. The stock - to - use ratio is expected to be 21.97% in 2025/26 [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - **Domestic supply**: In November, the corn supply is gradually decreasing from the peak. The selling pressure will be reduced as the temperature drops in the Northeast. The proportion of high - quality corn in North China has decreased due to rainfall. Although the overall supply is still high, there may be a shortage of high - quality corn [65]. - **Import**: From January to September 2025, China's cumulative import of corn and corn flour was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%. In September, the import was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%. It is expected that the import volume will remain low in the fourth quarter [65]. - **Inventory**: The port corn inventory has not increased significantly, and the overall inventory is still at a low level, providing space for future corn purchasing and sales [67]. - **Foreign corn**: The U.S. corn harvest is nearing completion, and the supply pressure is high. The bearish USDA supply - demand report on the 14th has increased the supply pressure [69]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - **Consumption**: The operating rates of major products have continued to rise. The feed demand is supported by the peak slaughter season and secondary fattening, and the overall demand in the fourth quarter remains good [71]. - **Feed demand**: It is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. The feed production is high, and the feed enterprise inventory has rebounded but is still at a low level. The pig - raising profit has changed little this week, and the reduction of pig production capacity may affect the corn feed demand in 2026 [71]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for corn deep - processing products. The low - price corn has attracted downstream enterprises to increase their operating rates, driving up corn consumption. However, the growth trend has slowed down due to rising raw material prices and insufficient price increases for terminal products [74].

Overall Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent commodity market shows that most varieties lack trend continuity, with major sectors like black, energy - chemical, and agricultural products in a volatile pattern. It's advisable to use options or futures arbitrage strategies instead of unilateral trend strategies due to low winning rates. Consider selling near - month deep out - of - the - money options to earn time value. Focus on varieties with continuous divergence structures and those that increase positions, volume during decline and are resistant to drops. Be cautious with the inter - month reverse arbitrage strategy during the upcoming position transfer period [2][5]. - The commodity market is in a volatile state this week, with a balance between bulls and bears. Valuations are low and the real - world situation is weak. Different sectors have different performances: non - ferrous metals are oscillating at high levels under the influence of precious metals; agricultural products like domestic corn and soybeans are rising, but the US soybean market is facing an oversupply issue; the energy - chemical sector has some varieties with loose supply - demand conditions; and in the black sector, except for coking coal protected by policies, steel demand remains weak and iron ore may experience a supplementary decline due to potential steel mill production cuts [4]. Summary by Catalog Market Overview - The overall commodity market is in a volatile pattern this week, with K - lines showing alternating yin and yang, indicating a balance between bulls and bears. Valuations are low and the real - world situation is weak [4]. Sector Analysis - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Under the influence of precious metals, non - ferrous metals are oscillating at high levels. Aluminum continues to strengthen due to capacity bottlenecks, and the tight supply of electrolytic aluminum in Europe and the US has not been alleviated [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Domestic corn and soybeans are rising, but the US USDA report has lowered US soybean export volume, leading to a plunge in US soybean prices on Friday night. It's not recommended to chase high prices of US soybeans or domestic soybean meal [4]. - **Energy - Chemical Sector**: Some varieties in the energy - chemical sector have loose supply - demand conditions. Methanol's production profit was previously high, and the market has reduced it first due to weak demand. Currently, the valuations of energy - chemical varieties are low [4]. - **Black Sector**: Except for coking coal protected by policies, steel demand remains weak, and iron ore may experience a supplementary decline due to potential steel mill production cuts [4]. Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital flow is 8.746 billion. Precious metals have a capital inflow of 4.291 billion (53.2%), non - ferrous metals 4.153 billion (70.2%), black metals 349 million (7.8%), energy - 51 million (- 3.4%), chemical - 143 million (- 4.4%), feed breeding 1.04 billion (50.0%), oilseeds 1.884 billion (41.8%), and soft commodities 254 million (15.3%) [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: It includes price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and copper [9]. - **Energy - Chemical Weekly Data**: It provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for energy - chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt [11]. - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It contains price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12].

南华期货原油产业周报 —— 供应宽松压制油价，地缘与避险风险成关键 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月17日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周原油呈N型波动且重心下移，当前在63-65美元震荡。上周五因俄罗斯新罗西斯克港遭袭（中断220万桶/ 日出口）油价大涨，但港口已恢复作业，需警惕盘面回落及63美元支撑位。汽柴油支撑弱化或继续回落，炼 厂开工提升的支撑有限，叠加全球原油供应高位，市场宽松格局压制油价。地缘风险短期解除，宏观面中性 但需关注资金避险情绪。中短期原油维持60-65美元低位震荡，重点留意地缘与避险风险。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 WTI油价与波动率 source： 彭博,南华研究,同花顺 美元/桶 美国原油ETF隐含波动率(右轴) WTI原油主 ...