南华期货白糖产业周报 ——还有新低吗？ 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 我们认为市场交易的重点来自于海内外的供求差异问题 ，这也是当前内强外弱格局存在的原因所在。当 前影响白糖价走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、国内01合约最终如何定价？上周01合约重新下挫，盘面一度逼近5300，南方蔗区的集中开榨还是对于盘 面造成不小的压力，现货价格近期也出现明显的降价，目前现货仍对盘面有所升水的情况下，最终可能还会 出现一波共振下跌，可能会达到我们在季度报告给出的区间下沿。 2、国际市场是否仍会创新低？上周国际原糖价格从15.2美分之上开始回落，可以看到盘面打到巴西出口成本 线再度沦陷，彰显出全球过剩的压力，下周原糖重新下跌的可能性变大。 中国巴西糖进口量 source： 海关总署,南华研究,同花顺 吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 250,000 500,000 750,000 巴西中南部累计糖产量季节性 s ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash are the potential cold repairs of some glass production lines from December to before the Spring Festival, the near - month contract following the delivery logic with ongoing disputes, and the cost - based pricing and supply - demand situation of soda ash. The short - term trend is unclear, and observation is recommended. [1] - For glass, near - end cold repairs are mostly realized, with daily melting dropping to around 155,000 tons, and there is an expected further decline in December. The 01 contract focuses on warehouse receipt games, and the spot price is restricted by high intermediate inventories and the off - season. For soda ash, it fluctuates with cost, with new capacity pending and high inventories and high production expectations suppressing the absolute price. [2] - The trading strategy suggests observing the 01 contract's warehouse receipt game and focusing on expectations for the 05 contract. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. The glass 1 - 5 reverse spread should be put on hold, and on the 05 contract, consider going long on glass and short on soda ash. [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production line cold repairs are yet to be realized, which may impact far - month pricing and market expectations. [1] - The near - month 01 contract follows the delivery logic, mainly involving warehouse receipt games, which may become clear in mid - to late December. Soda ash is priced based on cost, with new capacity pending and production at a medium - to high level. Without a trend of production reduction, the valuation of soda ash has limited upward potential, and the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline due to the renewed expectation of glass cold repairs. [1] - In reality, after partial glass cold repairs, the spot price is temporarily stable, but there may be a price cut in mid - to late December. The inventory of futures - cash traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high, and the spot pressure persists during the off - season. Soda ash is still in an oversupply expectation, with strong upward suppression, but there is cost support in the long run, and the price may fluctuate. [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The near - end spot situation is still controversial. The cold repair expectation and high intermediate inventories require observation of sustainability, including unexpected cold repairs and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. [6] - **Strategy Suggestions**: The 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, while the 05 contract is more about expectations. The short - term driving force is unclear, so it is recommended to observe. [6] - **Basis, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: For the month - spread strategy, the warehouse receipts are still uncertain, so the glass 1 - 5 reverse spread should be temporarily put on hold. For the hedging arbitrage strategy, consider going long on glass and short on soda ash on the 05 contract. [7] 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass Spot Price**: On December 7, 2025, the prices of major glass products in Shahe remained unchanged compared to the previous day. The average price was 1,049 yuan/ton. Among different regions, the prices in most areas were stable, with some areas such as South China, Southwest China, and Zhejiang having price increases, and Shahe (large - plate) having a price decrease. [9][10] - **Glass Futures Price/Month - Spread**: On December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased, with daily declines of 1.41%, 1.01%, and 1.58% respectively. The month - spreads and basis also showed corresponding changes. [11] - **Glass Daily Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the recent period. [12] - **Soda Ash Spot Price/Spread**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions were stable on December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day. The spread between heavy and light soda ash was mostly 50 yuan/ton, except for 100 yuan/ton in Central China. [12] - **Soda Ash Futures Price/Month - Spread**: On December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased, with daily declines of 1.54%, 1.47%, and 2.15% respectively. The month - spreads and basis also changed accordingly. [13] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some glass production line cold repair expectations are yet to be realized in December, and the supply is expected to shrink further. If the futures price continues to fall, unexpected cold repairs may increase. [14] - **Negative Information**: The high intermediate inventory of glass persists, and the spot pressure remains. There is still room for price cuts, which affects the delivery price of the 01 contract. New soda ash production capacity (such as 2.8 million tons in Alxa Phase II and 700,000 tons in Yingcheng Xindu) may be launched in mid - to late December, increasing the supply pressure. The renewed expectation of glass cold repairs affects the rigid demand for soda ash. [15] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions in industrial policies. [18] - The glass sales - to - production ratio, spot price, and soda ash spot transaction situation. [18] 3.3 Disk Interpretation - The long - short game of the glass main 01 contract this week may continue until near the delivery. The increase in near - end glass cold repairs, combined with high intermediate inventories, leads to a controversial spot situation with limited elasticity. The far - month has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, which may affect market pricing and expectations. [17] - The basis and month - spread structure of glass and soda ash remain in a C - structure. For glass, as cold repairs increase, the 1 - 5 spread narrows, and the far - month has expectations of cost increase and cold repairs. For soda ash, without a trend of production reduction, the industry's oversupply expectation remains, new capacity is pending, and the far - month has cost increase expectations. [24][25] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum - coke and coal - gas production lines have a small profit. [44] - **Soda Ash**: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process (in Shandong) is around 1,265 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1,180 yuan/ton. [45] 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The monthly average net export of float glass is 60,000 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact. [50] - **Soda Ash**: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 180,000 - 210,000 tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in October exceeded 210,000 tons, maintaining high expectations. [50] 3.5 Supply and Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - **Glass Supply**: The daily melting of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting. [55] - **Soda Ash Supply**: This week, the soda ash supply increased due to the resumption of some devices and decreased due to the reduction of others. Shandong Haihua is expected to reduce production in the middle and late period. Currently, the daily production of soda ash has slightly rebounded to around 103,000 - 105,000 tons. It is rumored that new production capacity in Alxa Phase II (2.8 million tons) and Yingcheng Xindu (700,000 tons) may be put into production in mid - to late December. [59][60] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - **Glass Demand**: The spot price may be cut, and attention should be paid to the spot feedback in mid - to late December. The high intermediate inventory continues, and the spot elasticity is expected to be limited. As of the end of November, the glass deep - processing orders were 10.1 days, with a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.9%. The deep - processing raw - glass inventory was 9.4 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The cumulative apparent demand of glass from January to December (excluding imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 7%. [62] - **Soda Ash Demand**: Currently, the total daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,900 tons, with a month - on - month decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 48,800 tons. With the cold repairs of float and photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The cumulative apparent demand of soda ash from January to October (considering imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 1%. [77] 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the manufacturer's inventory is 59.442 million weight - boxes, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.92 million weight - boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.68%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.25%. The inventory days are 26.8 days, 0.7 days less than the previous period. The intermediate inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation. [86] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash inventory is 1.5386 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 48,800 tons. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 727,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 810,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 36,000 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 556,700 tons (a decrease of 27,100 tons). The total inventory of the factory warehouse and delivery warehouse is 2.0953 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 75,900 tons. The upstream inventory is being de - stocked, and the replenishment of light and heavy soda ash is good. [86]

. ∗ 近端交易逻辑 南华期货锌产业周报 ——宏观基本面共振，矿端紧缺现实 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锌偏强震荡，当前锌市正处于宏观预期偏暖加上矿端供应收缩与消费淡季现实的博弈中。宏观层 面，美国11月"小非农"ADP数据不及预期，市场对美联储12月降息的押注显著提升，美元指数走弱为有色 板块提供了估值修复的窗口；国内方面，12月政治局会议召开在即，市场对于政策端"小作文"的博弈情绪 再度升温，整体氛围偏多。产业基本面最为核心的驱动依然在于供给端的剧烈收缩。11月国内矿端紧张局势 未缓解反而加剧，国产TC均价进一步下探至1850元/金属吨，进口TC跌至57.75美元/干吨，冶炼厂在利润倒 挂与原料短缺的双重挤压下，减产规模超预期，预计12月精炼锌产量将进一步滑落至57万吨左右。需求端虽 步入传统淡季，北方施工受阻，地产相关圆管订单下滑，但在供给端强力减量的对冲下，国内七地社会库存 录得去库，降至14.03万吨。综上，在供应瓶颈难以短期证伪的背景下，锌价下方支撑极强，整体维 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is within the range of fundamentals and policies. In the short term, its downside is strongly supported, but there is also pressure on the upside. The 01 contract is expected to continue its oscillating trend [3]. - The short - term spot price of urea is significantly supported, and the sentiment in the industry has improved. The short - term domestic urea market is stable with a slight upward trend [3]. - The medium - term trend of urea is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [21]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - In the context of the fourth batch of export quotas driving speculation, trading was strong in the first half of the week and weakened in the second half. It is expected that upstream enterprises will still be in a stage of slight destocking next week [3]. - Supported by policy supply guarantees and the repair of production profits, the daily output of urea is expected to remain high, and high supply exerts significant pressure on prices. However, timely and continuous adjustments to export policies relieve pressure on the fundamentals, weakening the downward driving force of prices [3]. - Due to the continuous restocking in Northeast China for two weeks, the willingness of compound fertilizer factories and traders to chase high prices is gradually weakening. But the continuous destocking of explicit urea inventories provides support for prices [3]. - Although new delivery warehouses have been added for urea, the locations of the cheapest deliverable goods are still Henan and Shandong. Considering the disappearance of export expectations for the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 month spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation. Since the 01 contract still has expectations for autumn fertilizers, there is still a premium for the urea 01 contract [6]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Urea is oscillating weakly. The price range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to lay out short positions at prices above 1750 yuan/ton and lay out reverse arbitrage when the 1 - 5 month spread is above - 10 [13]. - **Base - difference, Month - spread and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Base - difference Strategy**: The 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend. The 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong contracts with expectations of peak - season demand [14]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: The upper pressure on the 01 contract is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the static support below is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, with dynamic fluctuations. From the perspective of the terminal value of the 01 contract, it is recommended to lay out short positions at high prices; conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread at high prices [14]. - **Hedge Arbitrage Strategy**: None [15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - On November 6, India announced a new round of urea import tenders for 250 tons, with 125 tons each for the east and west coasts, and the shipping date is January 15, 2026 [16]. - The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry. The national off - season reserve is concentrated from December to March, and the relatively low price level may also attract spontaneous reserves [16]. - **Negative Information**: As of this week, the daily output of domestic urea is 20.81 tons. Next week, the maintenance devices of Shandong Union and Jiangsu Linggu will gradually resume, and some gas - based urea plants in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other places have concentrated maintenance expectations. After a narrow upward fluctuation, the domestic daily output of urea is expected to decline significantly. If the maintenance expectations are fulfilled, the domestic daily output of urea is likely to drop to around 20 tons [17]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - The output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 131.53 tons, an increase of 3.74 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.93%. It is expected that the weekly output of Chinese urea next week will be around 134 tons, continuing to increase from this period [19]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Over the weekend, the domestic urea market continued to rise firmly, with an increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The prices of small and medium - sized particles in the mainstream regions are in the range of 1510 - 1630 yuan/ton. Driven by the fourth batch of urea export quotas and the news of a new round of Indian tenders, the sentiment in the market is obviously bullish, and upstream urea factories continue to raise prices, while downstream resistance is emerging. The short - term market will continue to be stable with a slight upward trend [20]. - The weak domestic demand is the current main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening of domestic demand. The demand for compound fertilizers and industrial use is relatively weak, and the driving force for prices is also limited. Therefore, the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [21]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Urea Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is predicted to be 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years [27]. - **Urea Hedging Strategy Table**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about falling urea prices, it is recommended to short urea futures to lock in profits, buy put options to prevent sharp price drops, and sell call options to reduce capital costs [27]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories, it is recommended to buy urea futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and buy put options to lock in the purchase price if the urea price falls [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The report provides seasonal data on the weekly fixed - bed production cost, natural - gas - based production cost, and water - coal - slurry gasification production profit of urea [29][31][33]. 4.2 Upstream Operating Rate Tracking - The report presents seasonal data on the daily output, weekly capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and natural - gas - based capacity utilization rate of urea [37][39]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on China's weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and total inventory (port + inland) of urea [41][43][45]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report provides seasonal data on the weekly capacity utilization rate, inventory, production cost, production profit, and market price of compound fertilizers, as well as the weekly output, capacity utilization rate, market price, and production profit of melamine, and the daily market price of synthetic ammonia in the Henan market [47][50][54][66]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on the average production and sales of urea and the production and sales of urea in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [69][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. Supported by the rigid gap in the ore end and positive macro factors, the downside space for tin prices is limited. However, due to negative demand feedback and signs of inventory accumulation in China, upward breakthroughs are also difficult [2]. - In the long - term, the tin market faces a structural contradiction between the supply rigidity caused by the decline in global tin ore grade and rising mining costs, and the demand elasticity due to the increasing tin consumption intensity from AI computing servers and photovoltaic solder strips [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Macro Level**: The market has priced in an 84.9% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, putting pressure on the US dollar index and providing valuation support for the non - ferrous sector [2]. - **Supply Side**: The narrative of ore shortage remains strong. Although Myanmar's Wa State has approved mining licenses, actual exports are recovering slowly due to the rainy season and logistics issues. Domestic smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are restricted by raw material bottlenecks, with TC at a low level of 12,000 yuan/ton. Additionally, a subsidiary of Malaysia's MSC has suspended production for three weeks [2]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are in the off - season, with a significant reduction in orders. Although the photovoltaic and AI computing concepts offer long - term incremental demand, their current share in consumption is small and cannot offset the decline in traditional sectors. Downstream enterprises show a "fear of high prices" and only make rigid - demand purchases with extremely low inventories [2]. - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories are diverging. LME inventories have continuously decreased to a low of 3085 tons, with a risk of a short squeeze. In contrast, domestic SHFE and social inventories have slightly increased to 8012 tons, with a bearish inventory accumulation trend [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures Unilateral**: Adopt a range - trading strategy (buy low and sell high). Given the ore shortage, there is strong support below 290,000 yuan/ton, but due to negative demand feedback and domestic inventory accumulation, there is significant pressure above 320,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Implement a cross - market reverse arbitrage (long LME and short SHFE). LME inventories (~3000 tons) are much lower than SHFE inventories (~6800 tons), and the overseas supply in the LME market is more directly affected by disruptions, so the Shanghai - London ratio has downward potential [12]. - **Option Strategy**: Sell a wide - strangle option. It is expected that the price will not break through the 290,000 - 320,000 yuan oscillation range in the short term, and volatility is expected to decline, allowing for the earning of time value [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai tin futures contract with a 75% hedging ratio at around 288,000 yuan, and sell call options with a 25% hedging ratio when volatility is appropriate [13]. - **Raw Material Management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventories worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai tin futures contract with a 50% hedging ratio at around 277,000 yuan, and sell put options with a 25% hedging ratio when volatility is appropriate [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Drivers**: Strengthened Fed rate - cut expectations, concerns about US debt, low ore processing fees, overseas supply disruptions, and continuous inventory reduction in the LME [14][15]. - **Negative Information**: Eased geopolitical tensions, signs of inventory accumulation in China, a freezing point in spot transactions, and weak demand despite import losses [15]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots increased by 4.93% week - on - week, and the prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates also rose [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - **Domestic**: China's November CPI/PPI data on December 9, and SMM's weekly social inventory changes on December 12 [16]. - **International**: US November CPI data on December 10, and the Fed FOMC interest rate decision on December 11 [16]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Price and Inventory Data**: This week, tin prices showed a strong performance. The price of Shanghai tin futures, LME tin futures, and the prices of various tin products all changed to different degrees. Inventory data also showed corresponding fluctuations [18][19]. - **Domestic Market**: Tin prices were strong this week, and profitable positions were mainly long in net positions. The domestic term structure was complex, and the market was uncertain about supply recovery. The LME term structure maintained a B structure, and the internal - external price difference was relatively stable [20][22][26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industrial Chain**: Processing fees have long hovered at historical lows, putting pressure on smelter profits and suppressing production willingness [30]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The supply side is affected by factors such as ore shortages, slow recovery of overseas exports, and raw - material bottlenecks for domestic smelters [2]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - Traditional demand is in the off - season, while emerging demand from photovoltaic and AI has not yet fully offset the decline in traditional sectors [2].

*近端交易逻辑 1.生猪存栏较高，猪企出栏压力较大 南华期货生猪产业周报 ——远月的梦想近月的重拳 戴鸿绪 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021819 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 本周生猪期价震荡磨底，当前猪价整体估值偏低，本周持仓量大幅下降，预计博弈逐步降低。近月博弈依旧 关注二育，今年过年时节较晚，二育尚存短补窗口。 1.1 核心矛盾 政策端扰动频出，生猪远月供给或受到影响。长周期战略性可以看多，但中短期依旧以基本面为主。部分省 市开启收储政策，虽然收储量有限，但体现了当下上层对物价调控的决心，可以说政策底已经显现，但市场 底可能还需要一轮生产周期去磨底。 能繁母猪存栏数（双口径） source： 南华研究,wind 万头 能繁殖母猪存栏数（钢联）(右轴) 能繁母猪存栏（农业农村部） 万头 22/12 23/06 23/12 24/06 24/12 25/06 475 500 525 550 575 3800 4000 4200 4400 猪粮比. source： 南华研究,同花顺 - 猪粮比：中国（周） 22/12 23/06 23/12 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The price of PG mostly follows the fluctuations of external propane and crude oil. In the short term, the external market is tight, but there is still supply pressure in the medium to long term. The domestic market is relatively stronger than the external market and crude oil, which is related to the low domestic arrivals and strong chemical demand. The near - term trading logic is supported by supply contraction and stable chemical demand, but the overall valuation is high. The long - term trading outlook is affected by supply and demand factors in different regions [2][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil is affected by supply surplus pressure and geopolitical issues, showing an overall oscillatory upward trend this week [2]. - The CP prices in December are in line with expectations, with propane at $495/ton (+20) and butane at $485/ton (+25) [2]. - US propane demand has improved significantly in the past two weeks, better than the same period last year, but the inventory reduction is not large [2]. - The domestic fundamentals are relatively stable, with low arrivals this week, matching the shipments from the Middle East and the US to China. Chemical demand remains strong in the short term, and the PDH operating rate is expected to be maintained at 70% - 75% [2]. - There are many purchase requests in the external market recently, with the FEI premium strengthening to $30 and the CP premium slightly dropping to $25 [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to oscillate, with the PG01 price range at 4000 - 4500 [11]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to oscillate. This week, the futures price declined with the overall chemical market, while the spot price rose slightly, leading to a stronger basis [11]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Sell the spread when the spread is high [11]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Narrow the internal - external price spread, and wait and see on widening the PP/PG price ratio [11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **LPG Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of LPG is predicted to be 4000 - 4500, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 19.57% and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years at 24.83% [13]. - **LPG Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the inventory is high, short PG futures and sell call options. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buy PG futures and sell put options [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The fundamentals remain relatively strong, with continuous low arrivals and inventory reduction at ports. The external market is tight, and the FEI premium has risen to $30 [18]. - **Negative Information**: From the perspectives of internal - external price spread and PG/PP price ratio, the overall valuation is still not cheap [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Monitor - The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held [16]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: The PG01 contract oscillated upward this week. The net positions of major profitable seats increased slightly, and there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the order book. The net short positions of a certain seat decreased slightly, while the net long positions of foreign capital increased slightly and those of retail investors decreased slightly. Technically, the PG01 is in an oscillatory state, with resistance at 4400 - 4500 and support at around 4250 on the daily - line middle track [19]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: The LPG term structure remains in a BACK structure, with the 1 - 2 calendar spread at 79 yuan/ton (+3) [22]. - **External Market** - **Unilateral Trend**: FEI M1 closed at $524/ton (-13), with a premium of +30 dollars/ton; CP M1 closed at $504/ton (+3), with a premium of +25 dollars/ton; MB M1 closed at $375/ton (+19). The FEI swap declined slightly this week, but the premium strengthened, and the spot price remained stable. The MB price rose after the demand increased [26]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The FEI M1 - M2 spread was 13 dollars/ton (-6.75); the CP M1 - M2 spread was 0.5 dollars/ton (-0.5); the MB M1 - M2 spread was 6.19 dollars/ton (+2.93) [32]. - **Regional Spread Tracking**: This week, FEI was in an oscillatory state, while MB and CP were relatively strong. The FEI - MB and FEI - CP spreads narrowed slightly. In addition, the spread between FEI and MOPJ decreased, improving the economic efficiency of FEI [35]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 593 yuan/ton (-28), and that of Shandong local refineries was 232 yuan/ton (+29). The profit fluctuations were not large [38]. - **Downstream Profit**: The PDH profit calculated by FEI was - 350 yuan/ton (+80); the PDH profit calculated by CP was - 505 yuan/ton (+47), and the PDH profit continued to be in a loss state. The MTBE gas - fractionation profit was - 62.50 yuan/ton (-5), and the isomerization profit was - 51 (+25). The alkylation oil profit was - 412 yuan/ton (+12), and the recent profit fluctuations were not large [41]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking This week, the external market price strengthened, while the domestic imported gas price oscillated relatively, leading to a weaker import profit [44]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - **US Supply and Demand** - **EIA Weekly Supply and Demand**: As the weather gets colder, the weekly demand has improved significantly in the past two weeks, but the production is generally high, and the inventory has decreased slightly [49]. - **KPLER Export Situation**: From January to November, the US exported a total of 62,703 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 3.09%. Among them, the exports to China were 9,693 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 40% [56]. - **Middle East Supply**: From January to November, the Middle East exported a total of 44,850 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.88%. Among them, the exports to India were 19,238 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%, and the exports to China were 16,833 kt, a year - on - year increase of 27%. In November, the domestic demand in the Middle East was strong, and the shipments were generally low [60]. - **India Supply and Demand**: From January to October, India's LPG demand totaled 30,101 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.26%, and the LPG imports were 21,048 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak season in India, and the demand and imports remain high [63]. - **South Korea Supply and Demand**: The seasonality of South Korea's LPG demand is not obvious. Most of it is used for the chemical industry. From May to September, South Korea's LPG imports remained high. There was some re - export demand in May and June, and the propane cracking profit was better than that of naphtha from July to September, providing support for the cracking end. Currently, the propane cracking profit is still better than that of naphtha, and the imports are expected to remain relatively high. Some cracking maintenance has been extended to December, and the cracking cost - effectiveness of LPG has decreased. In November, South Korea's LPG imports increased slightly compared with October but remained at a relatively low level [70]. - **Japan Supply and Demand**: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and the proportion of combustion demand is large, so the seasonality of demand and imports is obvious. As the weather gets colder, the imports are expected to increase. After restocking in August, the imports decreased in September, and the imports in August and September were neutral overall. The imports increased again in October. Normally, from November to February of the next year, the average monthly import volume is about 1,000 kt [78]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In the case of high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain high, but the overall external supply volume is not high. The import volume is not high according to the shipping data. Based on profit and seasonality, chemical demand decreases, and combustion demand increases. The overall chemical demand in the fourth quarter is better than expected. The overall inventory has decreased slightly, mainly at the port [82]. - **Domestic Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 74.66% (-0.88%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 56.11% (+1.12%), and the utilization rate excluding large - scale refineries is 52.20% (+1.25%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 51.72 tons (+0.18). The port arrivals this week are 55.8 (-10.2), the factory inventory is 15.74 tons (-0.12), and the port inventory is 274.59 tons (-20.79) [85]. - **Domestic Demand** - **PDH Demand**: Juzhengyuan is restarting. This week, Hebei Xinxinyuan, Ningbo Haode, and Bengu New Materials are still under maintenance. The internal - external price spread has narrowed [95][97]. - **MTBE Demand**: No specific new demand information is provided, but relevant seasonal data on the operating rate and price spread are presented [98]. - **Alkylation Oil Demand**: Puyang Shengyuan has resumed production, and Shandong Linfeng is still under maintenance [103]. - **Combustion Demand**: Seasonal data on the production - sales ratio in different regions are presented [108].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene market maintains a loose pattern, with the 03 contract expected to oscillate between 5,700 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The market is affected by a generally loose fundamental situation and the weak trend of PP. Although the supply - demand gap has improved compared to October, enterprise inventories remain high. The continuous decline of PP prices and the significant compression of its price difference with propylene also suppress the propylene market [2][3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The "anti - involution" issue may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations, but there is no actual progress. The overall chemical sentiment was weak this week, with prices falling again after a slight rebound last week [2]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. Although the supply - demand difference changed little this week, spot prices remained stable due to the postponed restart of some devices. In the Shandong region, Hengtong restarted this week, and Binhua is expected to restart in mid - December, increasing the overall supply expectation [2]. - The main downstream product, PP, has sufficient supply. The price difference between PP and propylene has significantly shrunk recently, with some PP devices entering maintenance, but overall PP operation remains at a high level, providing demand support while also suppressing the propylene market [2]. - The price of external propane at a low level rebounded with crude oil, and the premium has strengthened significantly recently. The calculated cost is around 6,250 - 6,500 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit continues to show losses. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the profit, but there are currently no more maintenance plans [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to be weakly oscillating, with the PL03 price range between 5,700 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The overall trend remains weakly oscillating. In the short term, it gets some support from the significant increase in costs, but the upward potential is limited. The negative feedback from the PDH end should be monitored, and the market is regarded as weak until more negative feedback emerges [16]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to oscillate. This week, due to the postponed restart of production, spot prices remained stable, while the futures market was affected by the overall chemical sentiment and the weak PP price, causing the basis to strengthen [17]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Consider reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 3 spread when the price is high [17]. - **Hedge Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider widening the PP - PL spread when the price is low and wait and see; consider widening the PL/PG ratio and wait and see. The price difference between PP pellets and propylene is around 100 yuan/ton, and that between PP powder and propylene is around 600 yuan/ton in the spot market, and it has also compressed to around 440 yuan/ton in the futures market. One can enter the market when the price is low and pay attention to the maintenance situation of the PP end [17]. - **Recent Strategy Review** - The strategy of narrowing the PP01 - PL03 spread (take profit) was proposed on November 7 and took profit on November 20. Currently, wait and see for opportunities to enter the market to widen the spread. - Hold the reverse arbitrage of PL01 - 03, which was entered on December 5. Conduct range - bound operations on PL01 - 03, mainly focusing on reverse arbitrage [17]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished product inventories worried about propylene price drops, they can short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to their inventory to lock in profits. Sell PL2603 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 50% when the price is between 6,100 - 6,200 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options on PL2603C6200 to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 80 - 100 [18]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories that hope to purchase according to orders, they can buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs. Buy PL2603 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 25% when the price is between 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options on PL2603P5700 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 100 - 120 [18]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information** - The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have no results, and there is still some distance from reaching an agreement, causing a slight increase in the crude oil market [23]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in December is 93% according to Polymarket [23]. - Spot prices are relatively stable [23]. - **Negative Information** Some of the currently shut - down PDH devices will gradually restart. If there is no more negative feedback, the supply side will remain loose [20]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held [24]. - The US October PCE price index will be released [24]. - The US FOMC interest rate decision will be announced [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow**: This week, the PL03 contract oscillated downward. The net positions of major profitable seats increased, the net positions of the top five long - position holders in the dragon - tiger list remained unchanged, the top five short - position holders significantly increased their positions, the net long positions of profitable seats slightly increased, the net long positions of foreign capital slightly decreased, and the net short positions of retail investors slightly increased [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The PL03 contract was generally weakly oscillating this week. The daily - line middle track still exerted pressure, and currently, there seems to be support around 5,800 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure** - This week, the basis of propylene 03 was 172 yuan/ton, an increase of 112 yuan/ton compared to last week. Spot prices remained stable while futures prices declined. The 01 - 03 calendar spread of propylene was + 126 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton compared to last week [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Up - Mid - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 593 yuan/ton (- 29 yuan/ton), and that of Shandong local refineries was 232 yuan/ton (+ 59 yuan/ton). The cracking end has been relatively stable recently due to the resumption of production at Zhenhai [29]. - **Mid - stream Profit**: The propane cracking profit has significantly declined, reducing the economic viability of LPG cracking. The PDH profit based on FEI as the cost was - 350 yuan/ton (+ 80 yuan/ton), and that based on CP as the cost was - 505 yuan/ton (+ 47 yuan/ton). The PDH profit remains in a loss state [31]. - **Down - stream Profit** - The price difference between PP拉丝 and propylene is 100 yuan/ton (- 75 yuan/ton), and that between PP powder and propylene is 60 yuan/ton (- 75 yuan/ton), with the spread compressed to a low level [35]. - The profit of epoxy propane PO/SM is 1,365 yuan/ton (+ 126 yuan/ton), the HPPO profit is - 834 yuan/ton (+ 61 yuan/ton), and the chlorohydrin method profit is 178 yuan/ton (- 106 yuan/ton) [35]. - The acrylonitrile profit is - 1,189 yuan/ton (+ 58 yuan/ton), oscillating this week but with large overall losses [35]. - The acrylic acid profit is - 78 yuan/ton (- 18 yuan/ton), with the profit weakening, and attention should be paid to the subsequent operation situation [35]. - The butanol profit is + 182 yuan/ton (+ 657 yuan/ton), with a significant improvement in profit [35]. - The octanol profit is + 702 yuan/ton (+ 607 yuan/ton), with the profit recovering from a low level as the supply decreases [35]. - The phenol - acetone profit is - 990 yuan/ton (- 367 yuan/ton), with the profit weakening. Currently, PO, butanol, and octanol have some profits, while others are mostly in a loss state [35][36]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The price difference between Chinese and South Korean propylene has recently increased slightly, with CFR China at 745 US dollars (+ 10 US dollars) [45]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction in the Shandong Market This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market increased, and spot prices slightly rose. The increase in supply mainly came from the resumption of production at Hengtong, and the increase in demand came from the resumption of production and increased operation of devices such as PO and acrylic acid. In the future, supply will slightly increase with the resumption of production at Binhua [47]. 5.2 Market Supply Side and Deduction This week, there were both start - ups and shut - downs. The overall propylene operation rate was 74.06% (- 0.06%), still at a high level [50]. 5.3 Demand Side and Deduction - **PP**: This week, the price difference between PP pellets and powder and propylene continued to shrink, and the overall operation rate declined, but there were not many maintenance plans. The price difference between PP powder and propylene has compressed to a low level, and maintenance has increased [62][70]. - **Epoxy Propane**: This week, the price of epoxy propane declined, the profit of the chlorohydrin method decreased, but the inventory was still in a destocking state. This week, Shandong Xinyue and Qixiang Tengda increased their operation rates, while Shandong Binhua, Zhonghai Jingxi, and Shandong Minxiang slightly decreased their operation rates, and the overall operation rate slightly increased [71]. - **Acrylonitrile**: There was little change [73]. - **Butanol and Octanol** - Ningxia Jiuhong restarted and increased its operation rate. The 450,000 - ton device of Tianjin Bohua is expected to start operation at the end of December, and the 140,000 - ton device of Jiangsu Huachang is expected to start operation in mid - to - late December [78][80]. - **Acrylic Acid**: Shanghai Huayi slightly decreased its operation rate, Wanhua slightly increased its operation rate, Binhai Chemical stopped for maintenance, and Qixiang Tengda recently restarted [84]. - **Phenol - Acetone**: Taihua Xingye is expected to conduct maintenance for about one and a half months [86]. - **Shandong Regional Demand**: Demand in the Shandong region increased this week. The increase mainly came from the resumption of production and increased operation of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, and octanol [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting apple prices are the uncertainty of the final price of the 01 contract and the ambiguity of the Spring Festival consumption season. The 01 contract will follow the delivery logic due to reduced supply and limited deliverable fruits, while future price factors will shift from supply to consumption, with potential "off - peak during peak season" scenarios [1]. - The short - term trading logic is that it's the off - season for late Fuji apples, with limited orders from merchants and market impact from citrus fruits, but the price of high - quality apples remains firm. In the long - term, the scarcity of high - quality apples provides opportunities for price rebounds after declines [2][3]. - The upward momentum of apple prices may strengthen. The basis strategy is difficult to formulate, and the monthly spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing. For industrial clients, different hedging strategies are recommended based on inventory and procurement management needs [6][7][8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - The 01 contract price is expected to keep rising due to reduced apple production, poor quality, and limited deliverable fruits. Future price determinants will shift to consumption, and there are concerns about "off - peak during peak season" and "bad money driving out good" [1]. - **Speculative Strategy Recommendations** - The upward momentum of apple prices may strengthen. The net long position decreased to 3029 lots. The basis strategy is hard to formulate, and the monthly spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6][7][8]. - **Industry Client Operation Recommendations** - The predicted price range for apples is 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 18.5% (3 - year). Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory and procurement management [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **This Week's Important Information** - As of December 3rd, national apple cold - storage inventories decreased. Cold - storage shipments slowed down, and trading in production areas was sluggish. The number of vehicles in Guangdong's three major wholesale markets increased, but the sales slowed down [12]. - **Next Week's Important Information** - Monitor the weekly Thursday inventory data from Zhuochuang and Ganglian [15]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation - **Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation** - Last week, apple futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend. Total positions decreased significantly, and profitable seats continued to reduce positions. Technically, the main contract did not break through the previous high and maintained an upward structure [15]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread Structure** - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality and changing futures delivery rules. The monthly spread structure shows significant fluctuations in the near - month approaching the delivery month, and the possibility of a stronger long - term market is increasing [17]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream** - Apple profits mainly include planting and storage profits. Currently, the market focuses on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. With more low - quality apples this year, storage faces challenges, and the storage profit for the 25/26 season is undetermined [19]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction** - Affected by weather, this year's apple production and quality declined. The estimated total production in 2025 is about 34 million tons, an 8% decrease from last year. Cold - storage inventories decreased by 10% compared to the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be lower [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg - laying hen inventory remains at an absolute high. In November, the market demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. Although the inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased, the supply is still high, and the market maintains a situation of loose supply and demand. The long - term egg - laying hen production capacity is still in surplus, with significant price pressure. The overall long - term trend is bearish, but it is approaching an inflection point. If speculating on a rebound, it is recommended to focus on the far - month contracts [1]. - The current egg - laying hen inventory is high, and egg production is large. The trend of the number of culled chickens sold for slaughter is rising to the highest level in the same period, and the age of culled chickens continues to decline. The breeding profit is poor, and the probability of farmers delaying culling and molting increases [5]. - For the far - end, the production capacity is still at an absolute high, and the number of large - scale farms is increasing. Large manufacturers mainly maintain their original production plans, so the clearance of production capacity may be relatively slow. The enthusiasm of farmers for replenishing chicks is relatively low [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The inventory of laying hens is high. In November, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while that of reserve and to - be - slaughtered hens decreased. The proportion of hens over 450 days old decreased to 8.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%, and the proportion of main - laying hens aged 120 - 450 days increased to 78.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [1][18]. - The production rate is expected to increase as the temperature drops. However, due to low breeding profits, the number of old hens culled remains high, and the enthusiasm for culling is fair. In November, the chick sales volume increased slightly, but the overall replenishment sentiment remains cautious. The inventory structure shows that the proportion of large and medium - sized eggs increased month - on - month, while that of small - sized eggs decreased [1]. - The long - term production capacity of laying hens is in surplus, with high price pressure. The short - term price game lies in whether the actual number of culled chickens will create a shortage in the peak season for near - month contracts and the impact of low chick sales on far - month expectations [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: After the festival, the price reached a phased bottom. The recent rebound declined due to poor demand. The previous low of the main contract may be a phased low. There may be a second bottom - testing when the contract approaches delivery, and the bottom - rebounding and bottom - grinding range may be between 2800 - 3400 [6]. - **Single - side Strategy**: Close out the previous short positions, and either wait and see or lightly speculate on the peak - season rebound [6]. - **Basis Strategy**: Wait and see. As the number of culled chickens sold for slaughter increases, the spot price shows weak stability, and the rebound is less than that of the futures [6]. - **Spread Strategy**: Wait and see [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - **Egg Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 15.35% and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past three years at 37.63% [7]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory management, to prevent inventory devaluation, short egg futures to lock in finished - product profits (10% recommended for JD2601 and JD2601 - C - 340). If worried about inventory devaluation but there is no suitable price on the futures market, sell call options (10% recommended). If worried about inventory devaluation but don't want to miss the opportunity of a sharp egg - price increase, buy out - of - the - money put options. For procurement management, to prevent future egg - price increases, buy far - month egg contracts according to the procurement plan. If worried about price increases but there is no suitable price on the futures market, sell put options. If worried about procurement price increases but don't want to lock in the purchase - and - sales profit in advance, buy out - of - the - money call options [7]. Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: After the egg price hit the bottom, the willingness of traders to stock up increased, and the market sales speed accelerated. Coupled with the slowdown of the egg - laying cycle of hens due to low temperatures in the north, the supply - side pressure was slightly relieved. It is expected that the egg price will mainly rise slowly and fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 6.09 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.63 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.73 yuan/kg, unchanged; and in Beijing, it is 6.16 yuan/kg, unchanged [8]. - **Negative Information**: In the third week of November (collection date: November 20), mutton prices increased month - on - month, while the prices of pork products, eggs, chicken, commercial - generation chicks, live cattle, and laying - hen compound feed decreased month - on - month. The prices of beef, fresh milk, corn, soybean meal, fattening - pig compound feed, and broiler compound feed remained unchanged month - on - month [8][9]. 2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg price quotes in the production areas [8]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - The main contract of eggs has switched to the 01 contract. The opening price at the beginning of the week was 3294 yuan/ton, and the closing price at the end of the week was 3117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.34%. The open interest was 161,000 contracts, a decrease of 10,024 contracts from last week [9]. 3.2 Basis and Spread Structure Analysis - **Spread Structure**: The overall egg spread shows a contango structure. Although the 1 - 2 spread shows a back structure, it is actually a normal seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, and the overall structure is contango [11]. - **Basis Structure**: As the number of culled chickens sold for slaughter increases, the spot price shows weak stability. The basis of the 01 contract fluctuates insignificantly, and the far - month basis is weak [13]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The current egg - laying hen breeding profit is still poor, at the lowest level in the past five years seasonally. Farmers have the incentive to cull chickens. This week, the breeding profit remained in the red, with little change. Feed prices have rebounded, and the corn price has strengthened in the short term, leading to an increase in breeding costs. If the current low breeding profit persists, farmers' motivation to recover losses will gradually weaken, accelerating the culling of chickens [15]. Chapter 5: This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Egg - Laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while that of reserve and to - be - slaughtered hens decreased [18]. - **Chick Situation**: In November, chick sales increased slightly. The total sales volume of commercial - generation chicks of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information was about 39.55 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.02%. Egg - laying hen breeding is still in a loss stage, and the prices of eggs and old hens remain low. Farmers are cautious about the future market, and the order placement of breeding enterprises has not improved significantly. Only in some areas with a slightly higher empty - pen rate is there phased replenishment [20]. - **Culled Chicken Situation**: There is a disagreement between Zhuochuang and Ganglian data. Zhuochuang shows a month - on - month decrease in culled chickens, while Ganglian shows a continuous increase in the number of culled chickens this month, and the market's divergence over the data is increasing [23]. 5.2 Consumption Situation - The egg sales volume in the main sales areas remains weak, and the arrival volume in Dongguan is relatively high [26]. 5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the inventory in the production and circulation links is neutral, with 1 day in the production link and 1.24 days in the circulation link [28].