Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View - The stock market declined today, with almost all industries falling, led by the national defense and military industry, which dropped 5.83%. This was mainly due to the landing of the military parade ceremony, leading to a correction of the previous optimistic pricing. The previous day's large divergence between bulls and bears and the change in sentiment were further verified today. The trading activity of funds decreased significantly, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to around 2.36 trillion yuan, and the basis of stock index futures declined. Overseas, concerns about the UK's fiscal issues intensified, indirectly affecting the sentiment of the US bond market, leading to an increase in US bond yields, a rise in the US dollar index, a depreciation of the RMB, and an increase in market risk aversion. In the short term, the stock market is under pressure due to both sentiment correction and external information [4]. 3) Summary by Related Sections Market Review - The stock index shrank and declined today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 0.68%. The turnover of the two markets decreased by 51.0905 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties shrank and declined [2]. Important Information - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury rose to 5% for the first time since July. - The ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War was held in Beijing [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Reduce long positions or adopt a covered call strategy [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.96 | 19.6242 | 0.0876 | 28.6469 | -1.1866 | | IH | -1.29 | 8.6105 | 0.5491 | 10.2538 | -0.7211 | | IC | -1.30 | 16.6146 | -0.669 | 24.487 | -0.9914 | | IM | -1.22 | 33.8297 | 0.0551 | 39.925 | -0.2021 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | -1.16 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | -0.65 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.18 | | Turnover of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 23640.86 | | Turnover MoM (100 million yuan) | -5109.05 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestic policies for boosting service consumption and real - estate are being advanced, but their effects remain to be seen; the US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, and attention should be paid to US employment and inflation data, as well as the global credit "crisis" hype [2] - The core contradiction of the RMB exchange rate lies in the rhythm control; short - term return to the "6 era" is less likely, and it is more likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium [4] - Global debt risks weaken market risk appetite, and the stock index may enter a short - term shock adjustment phase [5] - The bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended for bonds [6] - The shipping index may fluctuate or decline slightly, considering the downward trend of Maersk's new - week opening quotes [8] - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and remain strong in the short - term; a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11] - Copper may continue to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended for the medium - term [13][14] - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom and fluctuate in the short - term [16] - Nickel and stainless - steel markets' sentiment has cooled; stainless - steel has upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals [17] - Tin may remain strong despite a slight decline, supported by tight supply [18][19] - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment phase; its future trend depends on downstream actual demand [20] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a high - level shock state; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to the dry - season impact, and polysilicon's shock pattern may continue [22] - Lead is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range with limited upside and downside [24] - Steel products' fundamentals are weak; the downward space of iron ore is limited; coal - coke may fluctuate widely at a high level; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [25][27][29][30] - Crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors; it is in a weak shock state, and attention should be paid to the September events and the Russia - Ukraine situation [33] - LPG is expected to fluctuate, affected by multiple factors such as the OPEC+ meeting [36] - PX - TA is expected to fluctuate with the cost; a strategy of narrowing the PTA01 processing fee is recommended [39] - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate within a range; a strategy of buying on dips or selling put options is recommended [42] - Methanol's port inventory is increasing; a small - amount long - position and selling put - option strategy is recommended [44][45] - PP's future trend depends on downstream demand growth; currently, its upward and downward drivers are limited [48] - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand; it is expected to fluctuate at present [50] - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate weakly; short - term short - selling of styrene is not recommended [51][52] - Fuel oil is pushed by cost; its downward pressure remains; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for long - position allocation; asphalt mainly follows cost fluctuations; rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [53][54][56] - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state; caustic soda's downstream demand is increasing and its inventory is decreasing [59][61][62] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Global long - term bonds had a "black September"; the US manufacturing PMI showed marginal improvement, with new orders improving and the price index falling again [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated; the pound fell sharply; the US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected [3] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated with volume; global debt risks weakened market risk appetite; the index may enter a shock - adjustment phase [5] Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds weakened; the bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended [6] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures prices rose; MSC planned to cancel some voyages; the index may fluctuate or decline [7][8] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose; long - term funds increased their holdings; key data and events this week are worthy of attention; a long - position strategy is recommended [9][10][11] Copper - Copper prices were slightly stronger; the price may oscillate before the Fed's interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended [12][13][14] Zinc - Zinc prices were strong at the bottom; the supply was in surplus, and the demand might improve; a short - term shock - at - bottom view is held [16] Nickel and Stainless - Steel - Nickel prices fell slightly, and stainless - steel prices were strong; the market sentiment cooled; stainless - steel had upward momentum [17] Tin - Tin prices fell slightly; the supply was tight, and the price may remain strong [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fell; the market entered a shock - adjustment phase; the future trend depends on downstream demand [19][20] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices were in a high - level shock; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term, and polysilicon may continue to shock [21][22] Lead - Lead prices fluctuated within a narrow range; the supply was weak, and the demand was in a "not - booming in peak - season" state [24] Black Building Materials Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel products' prices were in short - term equilibrium; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; the market may be in a negative - feedback stage [25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded; the steel industry was in a weak - stable state; the iron ore's downward space may be limited [27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices oscillated; the supply was relatively loose; the future trend depends on downstream demand [29] Silicon - Iron and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were at the bottom; the supply was loose, and the demand was weak; a long - spread strategy is recommended [30][31] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose; geopolitical factors affected the price; the oil market was in a weak shock state [32][33] LPG - LPG prices fluctuated; the supply was loose, and the demand was stable; the future trend depends on the OPEC+ meeting [35][36] PTA - PX - PX and PTA prices fluctuated with the cost; the supply of PX may increase, and the PTA processing fee is recommended to be narrowed [37][39] MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol prices fell; the supply may decrease slightly, and the demand was seasonal; a range - trading strategy is recommended [41][42] Methanol - Methanol prices were stable; the port inventory increased; a long - position strategy is recommended [43][44][45] PP - PP prices fell slightly; the supply increased, and the demand was uncertain; the future trend depends on downstream demand [47][48] PE - PE prices fell slightly; the supply decreased, and the demand increased; the market may oscillate [49][50] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices fell; the supply and demand of pure benzene were balanced, and styrene's supply may increase in the future; a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [51][52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose; the supply increased, and the demand was stable; the price may be suppressed by the spot market [53][54] Asphalt - Asphalt prices rose and then fell; the supply was stable, and the demand was affected by rain; the price mainly followed the cost [55][56] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Rubber prices were strong; the supply may increase, and the demand may turn warm; the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [57][58] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices fell slightly; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; glass prices fell slightly; the supply may increase, and the demand was weak; caustic soda prices fell; the supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased [59][61][62]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on the metal industry [1] Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continues to rise, with external gold reaching new highs. The market focus is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, personnel adjustments, and bond market risks. The medium - to long - term trend is bullish, and the short - term pattern is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. COMEX gold 2512 closed at $3599.5 per ounce, up 1.51%, hitting a record high; SHFE gold 2510 closed at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 1.21%. The US August ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs were lower than expected, which was positive for precious metal prices [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has slightly increased. According to CME data, the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in September is 9.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 90.5%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 12.88 tons to 990.56 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 56.48 tons to 15366.48 tons [3] This Week's Focus - This week, there are many important data releases, including the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday, the "small non - farm" ADP employment data on Thursday, the JOLTS job openings on Wednesday, and the services PMI on Thursday. There are also several Fed officials' speeches and the release of the Fed's Beige Book [4] Nanhua's View - The medium - to long - term trend is bullish, and the short - term London gold and silver are in a strong pattern. London gold can be expected to reach $3700, and London silver's next target is the 44 - 45 area. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [5] Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - Presents the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver futures, as well as related spreads and ratios [6] Inventory and Position Table - Shows the latest data, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as the holdings of gold and silver ETFs [16][17] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Lists the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, stock indices, crude oil, copper, and US bond yields [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The old - season market is ending, and the new - season soybeans are gradually coming onto the market. There is a strong wait - and - see attitude, resulting in light spot trading. The double - festival stocking - driven consumption recovery will face pressure from the new - season supply, and prices are mainly under pressure. The short - term trend in the futures market remains unchanged [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positively, the bottoming - out of grass - roots grain reserves, the expected recovery of edible consumption demand, and the reduction of short - side positions drive the futures price rebound. Negatively, the expected increase in the quality and yield of new - season soybeans, the decline in the auction transaction rate, and the continuous double - auctions per week will put pressure on prices [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean One Risk Strategy - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long spot positions, such as planting entities with high demand for selling new beans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 bean one futures contract at an entry range of 4000 - 4050 with a hedging ratio of 30% to lock in planting profits. Also, when the seller's bargaining power weakens during the centralized listing period, selling the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at an entry range of 50 - 60 with a hedging ratio of 30% can increase the grain - selling price [2]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those with short spot positions worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on forward procurement management. Wait for the autumn price guidance to go long on A2603 and A2605 [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Interpretations - **Core Contradictions**: The old - season market is closing, the new - season is starting, and there is a wait - and - see attitude. The auction maintains a double - auction rhythm per week, and the transaction rate has declined. The consumption recovery for double - festival stocking will face new - season supply pressure, and the futures market shows a short - term trend [3]. - **Positive Factors**: The bottoming - out of grass - roots grain reserves restricts price drops. The expected recovery of edible consumption demand in September and the reduction of short - side positions drive the futures price rebound [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The expected increase in the quality and yield of new - season soybeans will lead to a concentrated supply, putting continuous pressure on prices. The decline in the auction transaction rate and the continued double - auctions per week will impact the old - season price system, and the technical short - term trend of the 11 - contract remains unchanged [4]. 3.3 Bean One Futures Price | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 01 | 2025 - 09 - 02 | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean One 11 Closing Price | 3965 | 3970 | 5 | 0.13% | | Bean One 01 Closing Price | 3964 | 3963 | - 1 | - 0.03% | | Bean One 03 Closing Price | 3963 | 3966 | 3 | 0.08% | | Bean One 05 Closing Price | 4008 | 4012 | 4 | 0.10% | | Bean One 07 Closing Price | 4010 | 4013 | 3 | 0.07% | | Bean One 09 Closing Price | 4111 | 4109 | - 2 | - 0.05% | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oilseeds: The global soybean market shows complex trends. The US soybean was initially boosted by the EPA's SRE policy but then corrected due to lack of continuous positive policies. The market is optimistic about US soybean purchases during the China - US talks, keeping the outer - market firm. In the US, the late - stage growth of soybeans faces uncertainties due to weather. In South America, Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans, and low soil moisture may affect production [1][2]. - International oils: For palm oil, Malaysia's supply pressure is limited due to increased exports, while Indonesia's supply and transportation are a concern. The increase in export reference prices may affect demand, but global demand is still supported. US soybean oil remains neutral with low inventory and uncertain policies. Canadian canola oil is affected by weather and China - Canada trade policies [3][7]. - Domestic oilseeds: The domestic oilseed market shows a narrow - range oscillation. The outer - market is strong due to China - US talks, while the inner - market lacks stimulus. The purchase of imported soybeans is affected by various factors, and there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. Domestic soybean meal shows seasonal accumulation, and rapeseed meal may see accelerated inventory reduction [8]. - Domestic oils: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Oilseeds Global Soybean - After the EPA announced the SRE policy, US soybean oil soared, driving up US soybeans. Then, due to lack of continuous positive policies, the market sentiment declined, but the China - US talks kept the outer - market firm, and the Brazilian premium weakened [1]. US Soybean - New - crop planting is in the late sowing stage. In August, the Midwest experienced low - temperature and dry weather, which may affect crop growth, increase the risk of frost damage, and make the growth uncertainty similar to last year [2]. South American Soybean - Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans. Due to low soil moisture in some major producing areas, the average yield and output of soybeans in some areas are expected to decline. If the soil moisture cannot be improved by rainfall, it may have a great impact on the new - crop soybean production [2]. International Oils Palm Oil - Malaysia has increased exports with limited supply pressure due to more rainfall. In Indonesia, domestic unrest and rainfall have raised concerns about supply and transportation. The B40 plan supports local demand, and inventory growth is limited. Although the increase in export reference prices may suppress demand, global demand is still supported by India's purchases [3]. Soybean Oil - US biodiesel policies lack further guidance, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. US soybean oil inventory is low, and there is no obvious negative driver. The impact of weather on production cannot be ignored [7]. Canola Oil - The weather in Canada, the main producing area, is normal. Its demand may be affected by China - Canada trade policies. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Canadian weather [7]. Domestic Oilseeds Disk Review - The outer - market oscillates strongly due to China - US talks, while the inner - market shows a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to lack of news [8]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Imported soybeans: The Brazilian premium has declined, and the profit of domestic purchases has slightly decreased. The pace of purchasing has slowed down. The soybean arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million tons, 9 million tons, and 8 million tons respectively. Without purchasing US soybeans, there may be a supply gap after the first quarter of next year [8]. - Domestic soybean meal: The trading logic has shifted to the far - month contract. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased. The inventory shows a seasonal accumulation. The downstream demand is stable [8]. - Rapeseed meal: Due to the expectation of China - Canada talks, the short - term sentiment suppresses the disk. The inventory may be reduced seasonally, and the opportunity to go long depends on the change of warehouse receipts [8]. Future Outlook - The weather in the late - stage growth of US soybeans has been improved to some extent, and future attention should be paid to US soybean exports. The domestic soybean market may be weak in the short term and may stabilize in the far - month contract. The domestic rapeseed market may be weak due to the expectation of China - Canada talks [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - Wait for the opportunity to go long at low prices [8]. Domestic Oils Disk Review - There is limited news from the producing areas, but the medium - and long - term trend of oils is upward [9]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Palm oil: The price of the producing area lacks a clear driver, but the increase in production may end early. The domestic inventory pressure is moderate, and the demand is poor. The import profit is still in an inverted state [9]. - Soybean oil: The current inventory pressure is large, and the inventory accumulation continues. However, there is an expectation of a raw - material gap in the fourth quarter, and exports to India may accelerate inventory reduction [9]. - Canola oil: The inventory is still at a high level. Although the new supply is limited, the domestic supply is sufficient. The consumption is poor, and the inventory reduction is slow. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Australian rapeseed imports [9]. Future Outlook - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. The decline recently is due to capital withdrawal and sentiment slowdown. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter [9]. Nanhua's Viewpoint - Oils are expected to oscillate in the short term and rise in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily - New Capacity Rumor of Early Launch, Sharp Decline under Concentrated Short Allocation [1] - Date: September 2, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Price range forecast for ethylene glycol (monthly): 4200 - 4600, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 11.30%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 7.9% [2] - Price range forecast for PX (monthly): 6500 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.41%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 24.8% [2] - Price range forecast for PTA (monthly): 4400 - 5300, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.21%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 17.0% [2] - Price range forecast for bottle chips (monthly): 5800 - 6500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 9.55%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 7.4% [2] Group 3: Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about ethylene glycol price decline, with long spot exposure, short EG2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range: 4450 - 4550), buy EG2510P4300 put options and sell EG2510C4400 call options (50% hedging ratio for put options, entry range: 10 - 20; 25 - 40 for call options) [2] Procurement Management - For low procurement standing inventory and intention to purchase based on orders, with short spot exposure, buy EG2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range: 4250 - 4350), sell EG2510P4300 put options (75% hedging ratio, entry range: 30 - 50) [2] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Recently, ethylene glycol has limited fundamental drivers. Affected by the rumor of new device early launch, it became a concentrated short allocation and weakened. Although the pattern remains in a stocking trend, it is expected to have large upward elasticity when bullish drivers appear. Currently, it oscillates in the range of 4250 - 4500, and it is recommended to go long on dips or sell the 10 - contract 4250 put [3] Group 5: Bullish Factors - This week's planned arrival is 11.01 tons, relatively small. Next Monday, port inventory is expected to decrease by about 1.5 tons, and spot liquidity is expected to tighten further [5] - Due to the Houthi armed attack on a cruise ship in the northern Red Sea, oil prices rose in the afternoon, but the cost - end support was limited, and EG rebounded slightly and then fell again [5] Group 6: Bearish Factors - There is a market rumor that the new 800,000 - ton ethylene glycol capacity of Yulong will be launched in September. If true, it will run at a low load in September and add an additional 50,000 - 60,000 tons in October [6] - The terminal demand of weaving has declined recently, with limited new orders. Coupled with the continuous high temperature in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the loom operation rate has decreased slightly [6] - Due to poor production efficiency and order - receiving situation, bottle chip factories have cancelled their production increase plans, and the polyester operation rate in September is highly restricted [6] Group 7: Price and Spread Data - Various prices and spreads of polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including daily and weekly changes, are presented in the polyester daily report tables [9][10] Group 8: Processing Fee and Profit Data - Processing fees and profits of products such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, POY, DTY, etc., including daily and weekly changes, are presented in the polyester daily report tables [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production - restriction news of steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3rd military parade, which leads to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. Also, the previous position - limit on coking coal contracts by the exchange reduces its liquidity, and the hype sentiment of anti - involution fades, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys follow the price of coking coal and decline. However, the ferroalloy price has dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution proposal, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still bottom support, but under the current situation of high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside [4]. - Ferroalloy profits have been continuously declining. The current production is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, with weak driving force for further production increase. There is a possibility of production reduction driven by profit decline. With the production restriction of steel mills in some areas before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and there is still pressure on the upside [4]. - The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (semi - coke and manganese ore) is gradually expanding. It is more cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons, but the price of coal - based products fluctuates greatly. It is advisable to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.97% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 53.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 15.39% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.8% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price decline, they can sell SF2511 and SM2601 futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The demand for silicon iron in five major steel products is 20,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. The silicon iron warehouse receipts are 99,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 162,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [6]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products is 126,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The enterprise inventory is 149,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, the warehouse receipts are 332,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 481,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [7]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The ferroalloy supply is at a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. Without improvement in downstream demand, its growth space is limited. The enterprise inventory is 62,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector declines, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. The silicon - manganese demand is relatively weak. The production is 213,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the enterprise operating rate in China is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [7]. Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided, showing the price changes from September 2, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar data including basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided, along with the price changes of related raw materials [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened with a significant upward movement, then fluctuated, and declined near the close. All contracts' prices ended the day higher. The significant increase in today's futures prices was due to the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal, bringing positive macro - sentiment, and the upward trend of US - line freight rates also had a spill - over effect on the market. Additionally, MSC announced a blank - sailing plan for the Asia - Europe route, which was favorable for the futures price from a supply perspective. Looking ahead, Maersk's new weekly opening quotes continued to decline, and the likelihood of EC futures prices oscillating or oscillating downward was relatively high [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained shipping positions but face full capacity or poor booking volumes during the off - peak peak season and are worried about falling freight rates, with a long spot exposure, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended selling entry range of 1350 - 1450 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank - sailing efforts or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they want to book cabins according to orders, with a short spot exposure, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at present to determine the booking cost in advance, with a recommended buying entry range of 1150 - 1250 [1]. 3.2 Market Sentiment Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - On August 29th local time, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. These measures could remain in effect until October 14th to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. This ruling did not affect tariffs imposed under other regulations [2]. - On September 1st local time, due to expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week holiday, MSC planned to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from Week 39 to Week 41, canceling a total of four voyages [2]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Maersk's new weekly opening quotes continued to decline, and the decline remained basically the same [3]. - The SCFIS European Line index accelerated its decline [3]. 3.3 EC Data 3.3.1 EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 3, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 432.90 points, with a daily decrease of 49.30 points and a weekly decrease of 238.40 points. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [4]. 3.3.2 EC Prices and Spreads - On September 3, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1340.7 points, with a daily increase of 3.82% and a weekly increase of 1.65%. Different contracts had different price changes and spreads [4]. 3.3.3 EC Main Contract Speculation and Closing Price - Relevant data and trends are presented graphically, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [5]. 3.3.4 EC Main Contract Basis - Relevant data and trends are presented graphically, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [5]. 3.4 Container Shipping Spot Quotes - On September 11, Maersk's 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1175, up $10 from the previous period, and the 40GP total quote was $1970, up $20. On September 18, the 20GP opening quote was $1020, up $120 from the previous week, and the 40GP opening quote was $1700, up $200 [6]. - In the second week of September, Evergreen's 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1455, down $150 from the previous period, and the 40GP total quote was $2210, down $200 [6]. 3.5 Global Freight Rate Indexes - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 1773.6 points, down 216.6 points (-10.88%) from the previous value. Different global freight rate indexes showed different changes [7]. - The FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1997 per FEU, down $11 (-0.55%) from the previous value [7]. 3.6 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 2, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.760 days, an increase of 0.321 days from the previous day. Different ports had different waiting time changes [14]. 3.7 Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On September 2, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.804 knots, a decrease of 0.022 knots from the previous day. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages remained at 17 [22].

摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数上涨0.35%。板块指数中，只有南华有色金属指数，下 跌-0.21%，其余板块均是上涨，涨幅最大的板块是南华贵金属指数，涨幅为0.49%，涨幅最小的板块是南华金属指 数，涨幅为0.02%。 主题指数中，涨幅最大的主题指数是能源指数，上涨1.17%，涨幅最小的主题指数是经济作物 指数，涨幅为0.07%，跌幅最大的主题指数是煤制化工指数，跌幅为-0.59%，跌幅最小的主题指数是油脂油料指 数，跌幅为-0.02%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是低硫燃料油，上涨 南华综合指数和板块指数历史走势图（归一化） 返還 參考資 參考 alfar frame as and and the see and the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems and the series and the seems and th 1.00 0,50 17/5/26 21/5/26 23/5/2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Adopt a trading strategy of bottom - fishing on a trading range basis, take profits when favorable, and hold a small position of long positions at low levels to wait for a continued rebound [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation - On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated weakly, with all varieties closing down. Spot bond yields fluctuated within a narrow range. There was a net withdrawal of 150.1 billion yuan in the open market. The money market was loose, and DR001 fell to 1.31% [1] - A - shares adjusted at a high level today, with previously popular sectors falling sharply, but the bond market did not benefit from this, and the intraday correlation between stocks and bonds was low [3] 3.2 News - Wang Yi introduced the eight achievements of the SCO Tianjin Summit, including expressing support for the fair stance of the multilateral trading system, deciding to establish the SCO Development Bank, and formulating six high - quality development action plans such as artificial intelligence cooperation [2] - The Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans was officially implemented on September 1st, and pilot banks and other institutions officially accepted applications for the interest subsidy plan [2] 3.3 Market Outlook - Recently, the trading activity of spot bonds has significantly declined, indicating that institutional sentiment is relatively cautious. As September 3rd approaches, the market may first observe the situation before making further plans. In the short term, the bond market lacks its own catalytic factors and still mainly observes stock market fluctuations [3] 3.4 Data Comparison | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 02 Price | 2025 - 09 - 01 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 02 Position (hands) | 2025 - 09 - 01 Position (hands) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.41 | 102.428 | - 0.018 | 74372 | 76122 | - 1750 | | TF2512 | 105.55 | 105.59 | - 0.04 | 138200 | 136916 | 1284 | | T2512 | 107.93 | 107.985 | - 0.055 | 205357 | 206714 | - 1357 | | TL2512 | 116.61 | 116.89 | - 0.28 | 140312 | 145522 | - 5210 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.04 | - 0.0411 | 0.0011 | 21492 | 25178 | - 3686 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0256 | 0.0528 | - 0.0272 | 52692 | 60563 | - 7871 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.3548 | 0.4394 | - 0.0846 | 60757 | 84189 | - 23432 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.5696 | 0.7136 | - 0.144 | 116176 | 121725 | - 5549 | [4]