玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1200 | 21.36% | 46.3% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1300 | 17.89% | 11.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | 库 | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 | FG2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 1250 | | | 存 | 产成品库存偏 高，担心玻 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The stock index continued to adjust today, with relatively large declines in small and medium - cap stock indices. The market is currently dominated by the game between policy - driven positive expectations and the increasing willingness of funds to take profits. In the short - term, the news is relatively flat, and the signal of favorable policies is weakening, increasing the pressure for index correction. The decline in the Asia - Pacific market today has further increased the downward pressure on A - shares. The previously strong chemical and battery sectors have corrected, while the AI sector has strengthened, showing a high - to - low rotation. The basis of stock index futures shows differentiation. For IF, except for the next - quarter contract whose basis declined, the basis of other contracts converged. The basis of IH contracts declined, while the basis of IC and IM contracts rebounded significantly, breaking away from the historical percentile below 10%. The basis of stock index futures of stock indices with large declines for two consecutive days has strengthened significantly. Coupled with the slight rebound of the index in the late trading today, it indicates that there is support below, and the market sentiment is not completely pessimistic. In general, it is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term, but the expectation of favorable policies provides support at the bottom, and the downward space of the stock index is limited [5]. Market Review - The stock indices closed down collectively today, with the large - cap stock indices relatively more resilient. For example, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.65%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1.5277 billion yuan. In the stock index futures market, IH declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [3]. Important Information - The China - Germany High - Level Financial Dialogue was held in Beijing, reaching a number of achievements and consensuses, ending the trade tension. The favorite candidate for the Fed Chairman, Fed Governor Waller, supports a rate cut in December, while Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson emphasizes a cautious and slow - paced policy [4]. Strategy Recommendation Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.41 | -0.23 | -0.85 | -0.69 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1863 | 5.4759 | 13.444 | 21.7767 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 0.7571 | -0.2437 | 1.7523 | 2.044 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.8688 | 9.7691 | 25.4019 | 36.202 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 0.5967 | -0.3423 | 0.8185 | 0.6867 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.81 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.92 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.31 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 1926.068 | | Trading volume change (100 million yuan) | 1.5277 | [7]

周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石12合约月度价格预测（11月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 770-826 | 18.07% | 11.3% | 铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/11/18 source： 南华研究 1.可交割的主流中高品粉矿港口库存持续走低，支撑近月合约和基差 2. 美国政府重新开门，财政力量回归 3.钢厂边际减产，黑色产业链矛盾边际有所缓解 4.在钢厂利润低迷时，主要原料焦煤价格大跌，为铁矿石价格腾出了空间，形成了短期支撑 【利空因素】 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（11月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | | 买卖方向 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2512 | 空 | 25% | 820-830 | | | | | ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint - Last week, methanol prices continued to decline as the fundamental situation of the 01 contract couldn't provide support. Although there was a rebound due to factors like plant shutdowns and gas restrictions, the increasing shipments from Iran made it difficult to relieve the pressure on ports. Even with the strong upward trend of thermal coal prices, it was still hard to support the cost of methanol in Henan. Considering the higher - than - average temperature in Iran, gas restrictions might be delayed until mid - November. The 11 - month shipments exceeded expectations, and port inventories were likely to remain high. The regional price difference indicated that the port would continue to flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market would decline. Therefore, the 01 contract of methanol might continue to decline to find support. It was recommended to hold the previously sold call options and conduct a 12 - 1 reverse spread [6]. Section Summaries Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When there is a risk of price decline and high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short methanol futures (MA2601, sell, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 2250 - 2350). They can also buy put options (MA2601P2250, buy, 50% hedging ratio) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (MA2601C2350, sell, 45 - 60) to reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising procurement costs, enterprises can buy methanol futures (MA2601, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2450 - 2550). They can also sell put options (MA2601P2300, sell, 75% hedging ratio, 20 - 25) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the methanol price drops [3]. Market Analysis - **Supply and Demand**: The increase in Iranian shipments has put pressure on the 01 port contract. Although the increase in port inventory is limited recently, most of it is in floating storage, and the inventory is likely to remain high. The regional price difference shows that the port will flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market will decline [6]. - **Cost**: Even if the thermal coal price in the northern port rises to 900, it is still difficult to support the cost of methanol in Henan [6]. - **Inventory Forecast**: This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to increase [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market, and the market is running weakly. It is necessary to wait for the US energy policy and further news about Indonesia's B50 to boost the market. The strategy is mainly to stay on the sidelines. For the far - month P05 contract, there may be an opportunity to go long as palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia is earlier next year. It is also advisable to be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils and the P1 - 5 reverse spread [2]. - The current core contradictions in the oil market include the digestion of palm oil inventory pressure in producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the game between the weak domestic reality and international expectations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm oil**: In the October MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by over 11%, inventory by over 4%, and exports by over 18%. With the entry into the production - reduction season, the cost - performance of palm oil is expected to increase. The B50 plan in Indonesia has uncertainties, and there are also limitations on production due to the transfer of plantation ownership [1]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oils**: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. The resumption of US soybean purchases may increase domestic supply pressure. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to be tight due to the less - optimistic China - Canada talks [2]. - **Domestic situation**: The overall supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient in the short term, but there will be a slow destocking at the end of the year, and there are short - term strength - weakness relationships within the sector [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Short - term shock adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term. The price ranges are P2601 [8400 - 9000], Y2601 [8000 - 8500], and OI [9300 - 10000]. Pay attention to the far - month rebound opportunity of palm oil [15]. - **Technical analysis**: Go long on the P05 contract on dips, and be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [15]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Consider a reverse spread for P1 - 5. Be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [16][17]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The price range for soybean oil is 8000 - 8500, and for rapeseed oil is 9300 - 10300 [18]. - **Hedging strategies**: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills can short soybean oil futures to prevent losses from high - inventory imports [20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: In October, the US soybean crushing volume far exceeded market expectations, reaching a record high [24]. - **Negative information**: The November USDA report was slightly negative for the US soybean market. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 15 decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Spot trading information**: The trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil decreased, while that of rapeseed oil increased [26]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, MPOB data, the progress of the US small refinery exemption re - allocation decision, and the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations [35] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Domestic Market - **Unilateral trend**: The oil market was mainly in shock this week. Although the market sentiment is bearish, the downward space is limited due to uncertain factors such as the US energy policy and the approaching production - reduction season in producing areas [31]. - **Fund movement**: Positions in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. Palm oil had a slight increase in short positions from foreign investors and retail investors, and weak long - position confidence. Soybean oil's positions changed little, and foreign short - positions in rapeseed oil decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil's long - positions decreased due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [32]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The soybean and rapeseed oil markets showed a Back structure, which became shallower this week. The palm oil market had a complex structure, with 05 being the strongest and 09 relatively weak [33][36]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to be weak due to high domestic inventory and general downstream demand [33]. - **Spread structure**: The spreads between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils strengthened, and the rapeseed - soybean spread rebounded slightly. Rapeseed oil remained strong in the sector, while palm oil was the weakest [53]. 3.3.2 Overseas Market - The overseas market was mainly in shock. The negative factors in palm - oil producing areas were temporarily exhausted. The US soybean market was affected by the slightly negative November USDA report. The cost of US soybeans supported the soybean oil market, and the supply gap of rapeseed oil made it stronger than palm oil [56]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads continued to decline. The price of palm oil in producing areas was weakly volatile, and the production cost of bio - fuel decreased slightly. The cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained at a multi - year low [64]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - As China is a net importer of palm oil, the import profit changed slightly with the low - level consolidation of the origin price, and there were few new purchases under the negative basis [67]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Deduction - **Palm oil**: With the negative basis, traders' purchasing willingness is low. During the production - reduction season at the end of the year, the supply pressure is not expected to increase, and the driving force from the producing areas may be reflected in the 05 contract [72]. - **Soybean oil**: The arrival of raw materials will decline in December, the crushing volume may decrease, and the supply pressure will gradually ease [72]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current domestic inventory is high, but it will gradually destock in the fourth quarter. If the China - Canada relationship does not ease, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [72]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side Deduction - The inventory pressure of the three major oils is high in the short term, and the demand is weak. Although the fourth quarter is a traditional consumption peak season, the boost to the market after the festival stocking is limited, and the overall terminal demand is expected to remain weak [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current demand on the demand side is strong, with prices of core battery materials like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate rising. However, there may be a seasonal decline in downstream power cell production near December, and whether energy - storage cell production can offset this decline is a key factor. Overall, the subsequent price volatility of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the lithium carbonate futures price this week is predicted to show a "widely fluctuating and weakly downward" trend in the range of 82,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, with short - term correction risks [3][5]. - On the supply side, the arrival of more lithium concentrate at ports this month can ease the tight supply of lithium ore, and the release of salt - lake production capacity will continuously supplement the lithium salt market. The resumption speed of "Jianxiaowo" is a crucial variable. If its resumption exceeds market expectations, it will expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices [3]. - The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November needs attention. A significant reduction in warehouse receipts may lead to speculation in the market, directly affecting lithium carbonate prices [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Forecast and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 100,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 45.5% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 78.9%. It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price this week will be in the range of 82,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, showing a "widely fluctuating and weakly downward" trend [2][5]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 93,520 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,680 yuan (-1.76%) and a weekly increase of 6,980 yuan (8.07%). The trading volume is 1,487,724 lots (an 8.84% daily increase and a 64.85% weekly increase), and the open interest is 484,357 lots (a 13.96% daily decrease and an 8.00% weekly decrease). Other contract spreads and warehouse receipt data also show corresponding changes [8]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Prices**: Prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium phosphate aluminum stone have increased to varying degrees, with daily increases ranging from 0.60% to 6.13%. Lithium salt prices, including industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, have also risen, with daily increases between 1.04% and 1.49% [23]. - **Cell Material Prices**: Prices of core cell materials like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate have increased, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rising by 2.48% daily [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract shows certain fluctuations. The average basis quotes of different brands for the LC2601 contract range from -1,600 to 0 yuan [33][34]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,953 lots, a decrease of 217 lots from the previous day. Warehouse receipts at different warehouses also show corresponding changes [36]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profit**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate shows a certain trend, and the import profit of lithium carbonate also has corresponding changes over time [38]. - **Theoretical Delivery Profit**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate fluctuates within a certain range over time [40]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies for Lithium - Battery Enterprises - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, when worried about rising procurement costs, they can buy 10% of far - month futures contracts, sell 10% of LC2601 - P - 80,000, and use an option combination strategy (sell put options + buy call options) at a 20% ratio. For enterprises with correlated product prices, they can sell 60% of the main futures contracts according to the procurement progress and use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) at a 30% ratio [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises worried about falling sales profits can sell 60% of corresponding futures contracts and use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) at a 30% ratio [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can sell 60% of the main futures contracts and 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 to lock in inventory value [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to gradually peak, and the risk of further inventory accumulation will ease, with supply - side pressure gradually decreasing marginally. The industry is in a wide - range weak - oscillation stage with no significant driving force currently [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited downward space for costs. Negative factors are the decline in production of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, weakening demand [4][5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of "November concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation". The market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand", and the overall risk is relatively high [7]. - Positive factors include the potential for an industry capacity integration and clearance plan to improve the industrial pattern. Negative factors are the possible continuous inventory accumulation if the plan fails to materialize [8]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8980 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-1.10%) daily and 200 yuan (-2.18%) weekly. The trading volume is 304,628 lots, up 32,817 lots (12.07%) daily but down 22,146 lots (-6.78%) weekly. The open interest is 248,019 lots, down 3,530 lots (-1.40%) daily and 22,940 lots (-8.47%) weekly [9]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 44,022 lots, down 1,323 lots (-2.92%) daily and 2,233 lots (-4.83%) weekly [9]. 2. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions show different trends. For example, the price of 99 and 553 in Xinjiang remains unchanged, while the price of 553 in Tianjin drops by 50 yuan (-0.53%) daily and weekly [16]. - The price of organic silicon DMC rises by 1,600 yuan (14.35%) weekly, while the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 drops by 100 yuan (-0.46%) daily and 50 yuan (-0.23%) weekly [16]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 44,022 lots, down 1,323 lots from the previous period, with a decline rate of 7.32%. The warehouse receipt quantities in different delivery warehouses show different changes [27]. Polysilicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52,210 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan (-0.85%) daily but up 280 yuan (0.54%) weekly. The trading volume is 173,704 lots, down 76,062 lots (-30.45%) daily and 150,894 lots (-46.49%) weekly. The open interest is 137,091 lots, up 848 lots (0.62%) daily but down 1,377 lots (-0.99%) weekly [28]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 8,190 lots, up 70 lots (0.9%) daily but down 1,660 lots (-16.85%) weekly [28]. 2. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon shows little change. For example, the price of N - type re - feeding material is 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan (0.19%) [41]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers drops. The silicon wafer price index is 1.27 yuan/piece, down 0.03 yuan (-3.00%) daily and 0.02 yuan (-2.00%) weekly [43]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 655 yuan/ton, up 1,390 yuan (-67.97%) daily and 1,065 yuan (-61.92%) weekly [53]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 8,190 lots, up 70 lots from the previous day [53].

夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月18日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属价格延续调整回落，美联储官员内部分歧加剧，12降息概率预期已低于5成。"新美联储通讯 社"表示，不管降息与否，美联储12月会议都可能有至少3张反对票，其中明确支持降息的为特朗普任命的三 位理事，反对降息的为四位地方联储官员，而作为美联储副主席的杰斐逊，通常会支持主席鲍威尔的立场。 最终COMEX黄金2512合约收4045.1美元/盎司，-1.2%；美白银2512合约收报于50.05美元/盎 司，-1.25%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约收929.46元/克，-3.09%；SHFE白银2512合约收11933元/千 克，-4.08%。 南华贵金属日报：黄金&白银：12月降息预期分歧大 贵金属延续调整回 落 【降息预期与基金持仓】 12月降息预期摇摆不定。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储12月11日维持利率不变概率57.1%，降 息25个基点的概率为42.9%；美联储1月29日维持利率不变概率35.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为48.2%， 累计降息50个基点的概率1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - Overseas, focus on US economic data and the impact of the government shutdown; in China, pay attention to policy support due to a marginal slowdown in the economy [1]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen with the weakening of the US dollar index and seasonal effects, but caution is needed before new data is released [2]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate, with a focus on overseas variables such as US economic data, NVIDIA's Q3 earnings, and Sino - Japanese relations [5]. - Hold medium - term long positions in Treasury bonds, as they may benefit from weakening risk sentiment in the capital market, but short - term fluctuations are expected [5]. Commodities - Precious metals are expected to continue to adjust in the short term due to divergent expectations of a December interest rate cut, but may rise in the long term [13]. - Copper prices lack drivers and are expected to have a technical adjustment; aluminum may experience high - level oscillations; zinc, lead, and tin are expected to oscillate; nickel and stainless steel are at the bottom with limited further decline space; lithium carbonate may be over - inflated and risky for chasing highs; industrial silicon may have wide - range oscillations, and polysilicon may be weaker [17][18][24]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range, with support from raw material costs and suppression from inventory [29]. - Iron ore has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and opportunities for shorting at high levels can be considered after the basis is repaired [31]. - Coking coal and coke may face short - term adjustment pressure but have limited downside space in the long term, and can be considered for long positions when the price approaches the lower end of the range [34]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [36]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is in an oscillating and pressured state, with short - term attention on the support at $63 and long - term focus on geopolitical risks and macro - funds' hedging trends [38]. - LPG is expected to oscillate strongly; PX - PTA is expected to oscillate strongly with cost; MEG can be considered for selling call options to express a bearish view; methanol 01 may continue to decline; PP's short - term supply - demand situation has improved, and a 1 - 5 positive spread is supported; PE's short - term supply - demand has slightly improved, but the medium - long - term pattern is weak; pure benzene and styrene may have limited rebound height; fuel oil's high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking has upward momentum; asphalt's short - term bottom space is limited, and winter - storage willingness should be noted; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda have their own characteristics in terms of supply, demand, and price trends [39][41][49]. Pulp, Wood, and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper are expected to oscillate with a slightly downward - shifted price center; logs can be considered for a 01 - 03 reverse spread strategy; propylene is expected to oscillate [70][72][75]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Overseas: The US government shutdown has ended, and attention should be paid to economic data and the impact on the economy. Fed personnel changes have attracted market attention, and if Hassett is elected as the Fed chair, it may further open up the space for interest rate cuts. - Domestic: The economy shows a marginal slowdown, and the intensity and effectiveness of policy support are the focus [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the guidance of the central parity rate, and market settlement support. Attention should be paid to US employment data and domestic corporate settlement willingness [2]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated, with a decline in trading volume. The overall market sentiment was relatively stable, and short - term oscillations are expected, with a focus on overseas variables [5]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds rose slightly, and in the short term, they may continue to oscillate, while in the medium term, they may rise with fundamental support [5]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to adjust due to divergent expectations of a December interest rate cut. Long - term funds' gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings remained stable. Attention should be paid to US economic data and Fed officials' speeches [13]. Copper - Copper prices declined slightly, with an increase in warehouse receipts and a decrease in basis. The supply was relatively stable, and the demand showed some improvement, but the price lacked a clear driver [17]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices declined due to profit - taking by some funds. The supply was expected to be tight overseas, but domestic demand was weak. Alumina was in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy had certain support [18]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated narrowly. The smelting end had a strong demand for ore, and the TC decreased in November. The inventory situation needed to be observed, and the market had large differences between bulls and bears [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices were weak, with cost support weakening. The 12 - month interest rate cut expectation was uncertain, and the demand for nickel and stainless steel was weak [22]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated narrowly. The supply was weaker than the demand due to limited resumption of production in Wabang. It was recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly, but the downstream had no intention to replenish inventory. There was an over - inflation risk, and caution was needed when chasing highs [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon had a weak supply - demand pattern and was expected to oscillate widely. Polysilicon had a weak fundamental situation and was expected to oscillate weakly [25]. Lead - Lead prices were under pressure due to inventory accumulation. The supply was gradually returning to balance, and it was expected to oscillate [27]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded slightly, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of rebar and high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. The cost of iron ore was under pressure, and the profit of steel enterprises was declining [29]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded significantly, with an increase in shipping volume and a decrease in arrival volume. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. It was recommended to short at high levels after the basis was repaired [31]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices fell below the key support level. The supply of coking coal was marginally relaxed, and the demand was seasonally weak. However, the price had limited downside space in the long term [34]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded slightly due to environmental inspections, but the high - inventory situation remained unchanged. The demand was expected to decline, and they were expected to oscillate weakly [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices declined slightly, with a supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical risks. The price was expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at $63 [38]. LPG - LPG prices rose, with a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. The inventory was decreasing, and it was expected to oscillate strongly [40]. PX - PTA - PX - PTA prices rose, with a strengthening of the aromatics blending logic and an improvement in the supply - demand of PTA. The processing fee was repaired, but the oversupply expectation remained [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG prices rebounded due to supply - side accidents. The demand was relatively stable, and it was recommended to sell call options to express a bearish view [49]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to decline, with pressure on the 01 contract due to high supply and limited cost support. It was recommended to hold short positions and consider reverse spreads [51]. PP - PP prices oscillated at the bottom, with an increase in supply and a slight increase in demand. The cost support was strengthening, and a 1 - 5 positive spread was supported [54]. PE - PE prices rebounded slightly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth. The short - term supply - demand improved slightly, but the medium - long - term pattern was weak [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices rebounded at a low level, but the fundamentals did not change significantly, and the rebound height was limited [59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking was bearish due to weak demand, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking had upward momentum due to supply reduction expectations [60][63]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices fell, with an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The inventory structure improved, and the short - term bottom space was limited. Attention should be paid to winter - storage willingness [64]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices were limited by high supply and cost support; glass prices were under pressure due to high inventory and weak production and sales; caustic soda prices were affected by high supply and weak downstream replenishment [66][68][69]. Pulp, Wood, and Related Products Pulp and Offset Paper - Pulp prices were slightly affected by macro - sentiment and inventory, with some support from supply - side factors. Offset paper prices continued to decline due to lack of fundamental support [70]. Logs - Log prices were low - volatility, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity [72]. Propylene - Propylene prices oscillated, with a supply - demand balance of supply reduction and demand increase. The demand side was affected by PP and other downstream industries, and it was expected to oscillate [75].

股指期货日报 2025年11月17日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 股指缩量调整，中日关系恶化军工领涨 市场回顾 今日股指震荡为主，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.65%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落472.88亿元。期 指方面，IM缩量下跌，其余品种均放量下跌。 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.89 | -1.12 | -0.50 | -0.26 | | 成交量（万手） | 11.4292 | 5.7196 | 11.6917 | 19.7327 | | 成交量环比（万手） | 0.4303 | 0.8963 | 0.0305 | 0.4748 | | 持仓量（万手） | 27.2721 | 10.1114 | 24.5834 | 35.5153 | | 持仓量环比（万手） | 0.7845 | 0.3993 | 0.0816 | -0.2069 | 重要资讯 1. 文化和旅游部郑重提醒中国游客近期避免前往日本旅游，已在日中国游客 ...