1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high self - inventory and weak demand. The cost center may shift downward due to the impact of coal supply guarantee on coking coal prices. However, due to the supply - side's trend of maintaining production cuts and the low valuation of ferroalloys, the downward space for ferroalloys is limited. It is expected that ferroalloys will fluctuate weakly. Although the market may be pre - trading the policy expectations for December recently and the steel prices have been fluctuating strongly, which may slightly drive up the ferroalloy prices, the weakly - fluctuating trend of ferroalloys is difficult to change [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Market Review**: Last week, ferroalloys rose slightly due to the electricity price increase in some regions and then fell due to the decline in coking coal. The silicon - iron main contract increased by 1.56% month - on - month, and the total silicon - iron positions decreased by 6.75% month - on - month; the silicon - manganese main contract increased by 2.53% month - on - month, and the total silicon - manganese positions decreased by 14.6% month - on - month [2]. - **Core Logic**: Pig iron production continued to decline last week due to the decrease in steel mill profitability and seasonal patterns, and is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The inventory of the five major steel products still needs to be reduced through production cuts, so the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The high self - inventory of ferroalloys further suppresses the demand. Ferroalloys are currently facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually declining, and the downstream demand is entering the off - season. The possibility of a significant increase in ferroalloy production is not high. The inventory of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past five years, and the inventory of ferroalloy enterprises continued to accumulate last week, with a month - on - month increase of 2%. Affected by the month - on - month increase in silicon - iron production, the silicon - iron enterprise inventory increased by 1.12% month - on - month, and the inventory pressure still exists. The downstream demand is gradually weakening, and inventory reduction may still need to be achieved through production cuts. The relatively large decline in coking coal prices on Friday will also affect the rebound of ferroalloys [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Short - Term Trading Logic**: The inventory of downstream finished products is accumulating beyond the seasonal norm, with obvious characteristics of a non - prosperous peak season, which may further weaken the demand for ferroalloys. Pig iron production is expected to continue the production - cut trend, reducing the demand for ferroalloys. The profitability of steel enterprises has fallen below 40%, and although it rebounded slightly last week, mainly due to the concessions on the raw material side, the profitability of steel enterprises has declined rapidly recently, and the risk of negative feedback is gradually increasing. The continued decline in coking coal prices may affect the price of ferroalloys [7]. - **Long - Term Trading Expectations**: Expectations of anti - involution, the upcoming central work conference, and the downstream production - cut logic [12]. - **Market Positioning**: From a technical perspective, the 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages of ferroalloys are currently downward, and the MACD green bars are gradually increasing. The price range of the silicon - iron main contract 2601 is 5200 - 6400 yuan/ton, and the price range of the silicon - manganese main contract 2601 is 5500 - 6500 yuan/ton. - **Basis, Spread, and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Although the 1 - 5 spread of ferroalloys is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years, it is still not recommended to buy at the bottom immediately. Under the current situation of high inventory and weak demand, the near - month contracts are still weak. With the resurgence of anti - involution, the expectations for the far - month 05 contract will gradually strengthen, and the 1 - 5 spread of ferroalloys may further weaken. However, the 1 - 5 spread of ferroalloys is already low, and the risk of reverse arbitrage is also relatively high [13]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon - iron is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.09% and a historical percentile of 43.2% in three - year data. The monthly price range forecast for silicon - manganese is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.18% and a historical percentile of 18.1% in three - year data [14]. - **Hedging Recommendations**: For enterprises with high inventory of finished products worried about the decline in ferroalloy prices, they can short ferroalloy futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range for silicon - iron is 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton and for silicon - manganese is 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton. For enterprises with low inventory of regular purchases and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures at present to lock in purchase costs in advance. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range for silicon - iron is 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton and for silicon - manganese is 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Ferroalloys have recently maintained a production - cut trend [15]. - **Negative Information**: The steel peak season is not prosperous, the profitability of steel mills has fallen below 40%, and the pressure of negative feedback is gradually increasing. The coil and plate sector is still in a situation of high inventory and high production, with production at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and there is no driving force on the consumption side, and the inventory is accumulating beyond the seasonal norm, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years. Pig iron production is maintaining a production - cut trend due to seasonal patterns and the decline in steel enterprise profitability, reducing the demand for ferroalloys. The silicon - manganese enterprise inventory continued to accumulate last week, and the inventory pressure still exists [16][18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Monday, the final November 2025 ISM manufacturing PMI and November S&P Global manufacturing PMI of the United States will be announced. - Next Wednesday, the November 2025 ADP employment data of the United States will be announced [25]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements**: Not specifically described in text, but there are relevant charts for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese closing prices and positions [22]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The term structure of ferroalloys generally shows a contango structure, but the term structure of silicon - iron's phased contracts is gradually improving to become at a discount. Recently, the basis of ferroalloys has fluctuated in a narrow range. Under the current situation of high inventory and weak demand, the near - month contracts are still weak, and the 1 - 5 spread of ferroalloys may further weaken [23]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually declining, and the market has little expectation of a continued increase in ferroalloy production, maintaining a production - cut trend [39]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The export profit of silicon - iron has improved, and it is expected that the export volume of silicon - iron will rebound [58]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **Supply Side**: The downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the previous production profit of ferroalloys has continued to decline, which does not support a continued increase in ferroalloy production. Instead, the possibility of manufacturers' production - cut drive is increasing. With the arrival of the flat - water season, the production in the southern silicon - manganese production area may also decline, so the ferroalloy production is expected to decrease [62]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season. Currently, the profits of downstream rebar and hot - rolled coils are showing a downward trend, mainly because the inventory of the five major steel products is currently accumulating. In previous years, the inventory should have shown a de - stocking trend when the peak - season demand arrived, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of the five major steel products has also increased beyond the seasonal norm, suppressing the incremental demand for upstream ferroalloys. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline slightly [62]. 5.2 Supply Side and Deduction - The previous production profit of alloys has continued to decline, which does not support a continued increase in ferroalloy production, and the possibility of manufacturers' production - cut drive is increasing. With the arrival of the flat - water season, the production in the southern silicon - manganese production area may also decline. Especially, the production profit of silicon - iron has declined significantly, with a strong production - cut drive, and the production is expected to decline slightly [64]. 5.3 Demand Side and Deduction - Pig iron production is expected to maintain a production - cut trend according to seasonal patterns and the decline in steel enterprise profitability, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline [68]. 5.4 Inventory Side and Deduction - Given the current high operating rate of ferroalloys and weak downstream demand, it is highly possible that the inventory of ferroalloy enterprises will continue to accumulate. However, after the forced cancellation, the warehouse receipts have started to be re - registered, and the total inventory is expected to gradually increase [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Data Statistics - The Friday settlement prices and weekly price changes of 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented. For example, the T2512.CFE of 10 - year treasury bond futures had a Friday settlement price of 108.085 with a - 0.04% weekly price change, and the TL2512.CFE of 30 - year treasury bond futures had a Friday settlement price of 112.730 with a - 1.71% weekly price change [8]. - The spreads and weekly spread changes of inter - term and inter - variety spreads are provided. For instance, the inter - term spread of T2512 - T2603 was 0.195 with a 0.054 weekly spread change, and the inter - variety spread of 2TS - T was 301.758 with a 0.161 weekly spread change [8]. - The Friday closing yields and weekly yield changes of treasury bonds and national development bonds with different maturities are given. For example, the 1Y treasury bond had a Friday closing yield of 1.40% with a - 0.09 BP weekly yield change, and the 30Y national development bond had a Friday closing yield of 2.40% with a 7.25 BP weekly yield change [8]. - The latest rates and weekly rate changes of capital interest rates such as bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates and SHIBOR rates are shown. For example, DR001 had a latest rate of 1.30% with a - 0.30 BP weekly rate change, and SHIBOR1M had a latest rate of 1.52% with a 0.00 BP weekly rate change [8]. Other Information - Some information about the situation in November and December 2025 is mentioned, including the comparison of yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y bonds at different times, and the changes are presented in Δbp [10][12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs and policy expectations. With raw material price concessions, profits are gradually improving, and the market may pre - trade market expectations. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The operating range for rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and for hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3500. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed of steel, downstream consumption, and whether there are any super - expected policies regarding steel in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference [2]. - The supply - demand balance of steel products is marginally improving, but there are still negative factors such as weakening basis, poor peak - season performance of steel, high inventory of coil and plate products, and re - accumulation of port iron ore inventory [14][16]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Last week, steel prices fluctuated strongly. The macro - sentiment in the market was positive due to the upcoming Fed interest - rate decision meeting and domestic macro - meetings. However, the continuous inventory accumulation at iron ore ports, high iron ore valuation, increased supply surplus of coking coal under the production - cut logic, and the expected price cut of coke limited the upward space of finished steel [1]. - Last week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory continued to be slowly de - stocked. The supply - demand balance is marginally improving. The profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are gradually improving, mainly due to the concessions from the furnace - charge end. The production - cut intensity of steel may gradually weaken [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Range - bound oscillation. The operating range for rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and for hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3500. - Month - spread strategy: With the marginal improvement of the supply - demand balance of finished steel, the profit - loss ratio of positive spreads is relatively high. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Narrow the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Rebar and hot - rolled coil price range forecasts: The 01 - contract monthly range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300 with a current volatility of 9.26% and a volatility percentile of 7.0%; for hot - rolled coils, it is 3100 - 3500 with a current volatility of 7.39% and a volatility percentile of 0.10% [10]. - Rebar risk - management strategy recommendations: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about steel price declines, enterprises can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 30%. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs. For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low, enterprises can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 30%, and sell put options to collect premiums [10]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 3.2.1 Important Information - **Positive information**: Market expectations for policies, marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of finished steel, decline in coking coal prices benefiting finished steel, and gradual improvement in blast - furnace and electric - furnace profits [15]. - **Negative information**: Weakening basis, poor peak - season performance of steel, significant decline in steel - mill profit margins, re - accumulation of port iron ore inventory, and high inventory of coil and plate products [14][16]. - **Spot - trading information**: Market policy expectations, marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of finished steel, coking coal price decline benefiting finished steel, and gradual improvement in blast - furnace and electric - furnace profits [15]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Important Events to Watch - The Central Economic Work Conference will be held on December 11 - 12. - The Fed interest - rate decision meeting will be held next Thursday [24]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation - **Basis**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows certain seasonal characteristics. - **Coil - rebar spread**: The spot coil - rebar spread continues to narrow, and the futures coil - rebar spread may also continue to narrow. - **Term structure**: The term structure of rebar changes little and remains in a deep Contango (C) structure. The term structure of hot - rolled coils may change back to the previous B structure from the newly - formed C structure. - **Month - spread structure**: The month - spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils also shows seasonal characteristics [23][30]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Up - and Down - Stream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped significantly, falling below 40%. However, the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are marginally improving, and the motivation for the five major steel products to cut production may gradually weaken [43]. - Various steel products' profits, such as the immediate profits of long - process large - scale rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the profits with raw - material lags, show different trends over time [44]. 3.4.2 Export Profit Tracking - The export profit of hot - rolled coils leads the export volume by 2 months. There are also relationships between the export profit of hot - rolled coils and other factors such as the difference between overseas and Chinese hot - rolled coil prices and steel export orders [62]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In the week of December 5, 2025, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased compared to the previous week. The inventory of long - process steel mills' rebar decreased, while that of short - process steel mills increased slightly. The daily average molten - iron output of 247 steel mills and the daily consumption of scrap steel by 255 steel mills also decreased [86][87]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The estimated amount of molten iron plus scrap steel shows a downward trend. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils is affected by factors such as maintenance of blast furnaces and the profit of long - process large - scale rebar [93][96]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The consumption of steel products shows certain seasonal characteristics. The consumption forecasts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and other steel products are provided, and the inventory of various steel products and their inventory - to - sales ratios also show different trends [116][131].

南华期货集运产业周报 ——挺价预期主导市场波动，期价阶段性修复 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 联系邮箱：songjipeng@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心因素及策略建议 1.1 核心因素 上周scfi综合指数小幅回落，最新录得1397.63点（-0.39%）。其中，欧洲航线录得1400（-0.28%），美西航 线录得1550（-5.02%），美东航线2315（-4.65%）。 即期运价方面，上周四马士基发布涨价函，12.29日起至鹿特丹宣涨到3500USD/FEU。从Week52的线上报价 来看，Gemini联盟均价为3700USD/FEU，MSC为2665USD/FEU，Premier联盟2835.00USD/FEU，海洋联 盟3182.22USD/FEU。统计样本内的均值为3100.52USD/FEU。马士基宣涨的最终落地情况如何，目前也是 市场关注的焦点。运力规模上看，12月周均运力在29~30wTEU之间，并不算低。 交易上，上周02合约周度反弹9.4%。主要受到前一周现货降价以及红海复航预期等因素而导致的超跌 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - PE is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, lacking upward drivers. The supply is expected to remain loose due to limited future device maintenance and the restart of previously shut - down devices, while the demand is approaching the end of the peak season with limited future growth potential. The LLDPE social inventory has a high absolute level, and the de - stocking expectation is weak, resulting in large supply - demand pressure [1]. - In the short term, PE is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The recent sharp decline in the PE disk is due to the weak performance of LLDPE spot, the lack of follow - up in the spot market during the previous disk rise, and the shift of the PE fundamentals to a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand [5]. - In the long - term, the supply pressure of LLDPE may ease next year, but the sharp increase in the supply of non - standard products may be transmitted to LLDPE and suppress its price [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply: Future PE device maintenance is expected to be limited, and the restart of previously shut - down devices will increase the supply, keeping it loose. - Demand: The peak season of downstream demand is ending, and the agricultural film operating rate is declining, with limited future demand growth [1]. - Inventory: The LLDPE social inventory is de - stocking, but the absolute level is still high, and the de - stocking expectation is weak under the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. - Price range: L2601 is between 6600 - 6900. - Strategy suggestion: Consider selling call options [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Basis strategy: None for now. - Spread strategy: 1 - 5 reverse spread. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Short - term focus on the narrowing of the L - P spread [11]. - Hedging strategy for inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs. - Hedging strategy for procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Negative information: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton LDPE/EVA device is planned to start production soon [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - This week's spot market transactions were generally weak, but there was speculative replenishment by downstream enterprises when the disk dropped sharply on Thursday. - Attention should be paid to the Central Economic Work Conference on December 8th and the National Fiscal Work Conference [14][17]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: After a rebound last week, the PE disk has entered a downward oscillating trend again. - Capital movement: The position of the 01 contract has decreased as it approaches delivery. There was no significant change in the top - five long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list. The net short position of the top - five profitable seats increased slightly, and the long positions of the main profitable seats decreased this week, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market [19]. - Basis structure: Due to the continuous pessimistic industrial sentiment, the spot price was suppressed, causing a sharp decline in the disk on Thursday and Friday, and the basis strengthened passively. As of Friday, the North China basis was 26 yuan/ton (up 85 from last week), the East China basis was 186 yuan/ton (up 95), and the South China basis was 176 yuan/ton (up 35) [23]. - Spread structure: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure because of the relatively optimistic market expectation for the future macro - situation and the limited production capacity expansion of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year, which may ease the supply - demand pressure of standard products [25]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - With the continuous weakening of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines have been compressed [29]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Supply: Although device maintenance has increased recently, the high existing production capacity and the commissioning of multiple devices in the fourth quarter have made it difficult to relieve the supply pressure. Overseas supply - demand is also weak, and imports are expected to increase, further increasing the total supply. - Demand: At the end of the year, the agricultural film operating rate is expected to decline, weakening the rigid support on the demand side and intensifying the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [37]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 84.05% (- 0.46%). Some devices such as Dushanzi Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical entered maintenance this week, causing a slight decline in the operating rate. The operating rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level due to limited planned maintenance at the end of the year. Zhejiang Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA device is expected to start production soon, and Yulong Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA device is expected to start production early next year, indicating large supply pressure [43]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: The PE price in the US market has stabilized and rebounded, and the offers from the US have decreased recently. Although imports are expected to increase slightly from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, in the long - run, PE imports are expected to be gradually replaced by domestic supply. - Export: Enterprises have a high enthusiasm for expanding export channels this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the overall volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [52]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The current average operating rate of PE downstream industries is 44.3% (- 0.54%). Among them, the agricultural film operating rate is 48.02% (- 0.92%), the packaging film operating rate is 50.22% (- 0.48%), the pipe operating rate is 31.83% (0%), the injection molding operating rate is 49.55% (- 0.5%), the hollow operating rate is 38.38% (- 0.74%), and the drawing operating rate is 33.02% (- 1.1%). The comprehensive operating rate of PE has declined this week, especially the agricultural film production has entered the off - season with an obvious decline in the operating rate. The future growth space of PE demand is limited, intensifying the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [60].

南华期货甲醇产业周报 甲醇区域现货流通概括 资料来源：南华研究 周度产业链价格总览 | | N 211 | - 63 p 4124 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | + + A 11 | | | | | | | | | | | | 44 4 | 周涨跌 | | | | | | | | 4121 A | 月涨跌 | | | | | | | | ------------ | IA == 川左 | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | | | | | | - 63 n | | | | | 合约 | | | | 周涨跌 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 月涨跌 | ——01交割博弈 2025/12/7 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周甲醇上涨后下跌，上涨主要逻辑在于市场认为01没有合适仓单交割，流动性收紧带来的挤仓上涨， 同时内地上半周的贸易商补空 ...

南华期货聚丙烯产业周报 ∗ 远端交易预期 ——现货端悲观情绪形成拖累 戴一帆 投资咨询资格证号 Z0015428 研究助理 顾恒烨 期货从业资格证号 F0343348 联系邮箱：guhy@nawaa，com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前PP估值已经被压制较极端水平，PDH装置生产利润已经压至-800元/吨以下的年内低位，同时PP-丙烯价 差也降至200元/吨以下。但是在当前的低利润情况下并未看到下游有太多的负反馈出现，先前停车的巨正源 四条线也相继重启。因此，从当前PP的基本面情况来看，供应端，虽然检修量仍维持在偏高位，但暂未能看 到新的增量出现，后续供应预计基本持平或有小幅回升；需求端，本周现货成交情况缩量比较明显，下游补 库意愿偏低，且在前期PP盘面回升时，现货并未能出现回升，基差明显走弱。当前市场情绪仍然较为悲观， 导致盘面回升幅度受限。 PP-PDH现货利润-FEI季节性 source： 同花顺,wind,南华研究 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 ...

原木数据纵览 | 类别 | 指标 | 更新日期 | 数值 | 环差 | 同比 | 频率 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 辐射松进口量 | 2025-10-31 | 148 | 3 | 15.6% | 月 | 万m³ | | 库存 | 港口库存（中国） | 2025-11-28 | 297 | -6 | 10.0% | 周 | 万m³ | | | 港口库存（山东） | 2025-11-28 | 1986000 | -79000 | 29.8% | 周 | m³ | | | 港口库存（江苏） | 2025-11-28 | 850900 | 19123 | 0.4% | 周 | m³ | | 需求 | 原木港口日均出库量 | 2025-11-28 | 6.13 | -0.31 | 16.3% | 周 | 万m³ | | | 日均出库量（山东） | 2025-11-28 | 3.04 | -0.55 | 29.4% | 周 | 万m³ | | | 日均出库量（江苏） | 2025-11-28 | 2.62 | 0.26 | ...

南华期货白糖产业周报 ——还有新低吗？ 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 我们认为市场交易的重点来自于海内外的供求差异问题 ，这也是当前内强外弱格局存在的原因所在。当 前影响白糖价走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、国内01合约最终如何定价？上周01合约重新下挫，盘面一度逼近5300，南方蔗区的集中开榨还是对于盘 面造成不小的压力，现货价格近期也出现明显的降价，目前现货仍对盘面有所升水的情况下，最终可能还会 出现一波共振下跌，可能会达到我们在季度报告给出的区间下沿。 2、国际市场是否仍会创新低？上周国际原糖价格从15.2美分之上开始回落，可以看到盘面打到巴西出口成本 线再度沦陷，彰显出全球过剩的压力，下周原糖重新下跌的可能性变大。 中国巴西糖进口量 source： 海关总署,南华研究,同花顺 吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 250,000 500,000 750,000 巴西中南部累计糖产量季节性 s ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash are the potential cold repairs of some glass production lines from December to before the Spring Festival, the near - month contract following the delivery logic with ongoing disputes, and the cost - based pricing and supply - demand situation of soda ash. The short - term trend is unclear, and observation is recommended. [1] - For glass, near - end cold repairs are mostly realized, with daily melting dropping to around 155,000 tons, and there is an expected further decline in December. The 01 contract focuses on warehouse receipt games, and the spot price is restricted by high intermediate inventories and the off - season. For soda ash, it fluctuates with cost, with new capacity pending and high inventories and high production expectations suppressing the absolute price. [2] - The trading strategy suggests observing the 01 contract's warehouse receipt game and focusing on expectations for the 05 contract. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. The glass 1 - 5 reverse spread should be put on hold, and on the 05 contract, consider going long on glass and short on soda ash. [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production line cold repairs are yet to be realized, which may impact far - month pricing and market expectations. [1] - The near - month 01 contract follows the delivery logic, mainly involving warehouse receipt games, which may become clear in mid - to late December. Soda ash is priced based on cost, with new capacity pending and production at a medium - to high level. Without a trend of production reduction, the valuation of soda ash has limited upward potential, and the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline due to the renewed expectation of glass cold repairs. [1] - In reality, after partial glass cold repairs, the spot price is temporarily stable, but there may be a price cut in mid - to late December. The inventory of futures - cash traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high, and the spot pressure persists during the off - season. Soda ash is still in an oversupply expectation, with strong upward suppression, but there is cost support in the long run, and the price may fluctuate. [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The near - end spot situation is still controversial. The cold repair expectation and high intermediate inventories require observation of sustainability, including unexpected cold repairs and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. [6] - **Strategy Suggestions**: The 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, while the 05 contract is more about expectations. The short - term driving force is unclear, so it is recommended to observe. [6] - **Basis, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: For the month - spread strategy, the warehouse receipts are still uncertain, so the glass 1 - 5 reverse spread should be temporarily put on hold. For the hedging arbitrage strategy, consider going long on glass and short on soda ash on the 05 contract. [7] 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass Spot Price**: On December 7, 2025, the prices of major glass products in Shahe remained unchanged compared to the previous day. The average price was 1,049 yuan/ton. Among different regions, the prices in most areas were stable, with some areas such as South China, Southwest China, and Zhejiang having price increases, and Shahe (large - plate) having a price decrease. [9][10] - **Glass Futures Price/Month - Spread**: On December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased, with daily declines of 1.41%, 1.01%, and 1.58% respectively. The month - spreads and basis also showed corresponding changes. [11] - **Glass Daily Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the recent period. [12] - **Soda Ash Spot Price/Spread**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions were stable on December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day. The spread between heavy and light soda ash was mostly 50 yuan/ton, except for 100 yuan/ton in Central China. [12] - **Soda Ash Futures Price/Month - Spread**: On December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased, with daily declines of 1.54%, 1.47%, and 2.15% respectively. The month - spreads and basis also changed accordingly. [13] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some glass production line cold repair expectations are yet to be realized in December, and the supply is expected to shrink further. If the futures price continues to fall, unexpected cold repairs may increase. [14] - **Negative Information**: The high intermediate inventory of glass persists, and the spot pressure remains. There is still room for price cuts, which affects the delivery price of the 01 contract. New soda ash production capacity (such as 2.8 million tons in Alxa Phase II and 700,000 tons in Yingcheng Xindu) may be launched in mid - to late December, increasing the supply pressure. The renewed expectation of glass cold repairs affects the rigid demand for soda ash. [15] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions in industrial policies. [18] - The glass sales - to - production ratio, spot price, and soda ash spot transaction situation. [18] 3.3 Disk Interpretation - The long - short game of the glass main 01 contract this week may continue until near the delivery. The increase in near - end glass cold repairs, combined with high intermediate inventories, leads to a controversial spot situation with limited elasticity. The far - month has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, which may affect market pricing and expectations. [17] - The basis and month - spread structure of glass and soda ash remain in a C - structure. For glass, as cold repairs increase, the 1 - 5 spread narrows, and the far - month has expectations of cost increase and cold repairs. For soda ash, without a trend of production reduction, the industry's oversupply expectation remains, new capacity is pending, and the far - month has cost increase expectations. [24][25] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum - coke and coal - gas production lines have a small profit. [44] - **Soda Ash**: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process (in Shandong) is around 1,265 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1,180 yuan/ton. [45] 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The monthly average net export of float glass is 60,000 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact. [50] - **Soda Ash**: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 180,000 - 210,000 tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in October exceeded 210,000 tons, maintaining high expectations. [50] 3.5 Supply and Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - **Glass Supply**: The daily melting of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting. [55] - **Soda Ash Supply**: This week, the soda ash supply increased due to the resumption of some devices and decreased due to the reduction of others. Shandong Haihua is expected to reduce production in the middle and late period. Currently, the daily production of soda ash has slightly rebounded to around 103,000 - 105,000 tons. It is rumored that new production capacity in Alxa Phase II (2.8 million tons) and Yingcheng Xindu (700,000 tons) may be put into production in mid - to late December. [59][60] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - **Glass Demand**: The spot price may be cut, and attention should be paid to the spot feedback in mid - to late December. The high intermediate inventory continues, and the spot elasticity is expected to be limited. As of the end of November, the glass deep - processing orders were 10.1 days, with a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.9%. The deep - processing raw - glass inventory was 9.4 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The cumulative apparent demand of glass from January to December (excluding imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 7%. [62] - **Soda Ash Demand**: Currently, the total daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,900 tons, with a month - on - month decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 48,800 tons. With the cold repairs of float and photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The cumulative apparent demand of soda ash from January to October (considering imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 1%. [77] 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the manufacturer's inventory is 59.442 million weight - boxes, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.92 million weight - boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.68%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.25%. The inventory days are 26.8 days, 0.7 days less than the previous period. The intermediate inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation. [86] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash inventory is 1.5386 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 48,800 tons. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 727,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 810,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 36,000 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 556,700 tons (a decrease of 27,100 tons). The total inventory of the factory warehouse and delivery warehouse is 2.0953 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 75,900 tons. The upstream inventory is being de - stocked, and the replenishment of light and heavy soda ash is good. [86]