| 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.9-12.9 | 13.71% | 0.4% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担心原料价格上 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面提前采购锁定生产 | 远月沪镍合约 买入 场内/场外期 | | 依据采购计 依据采购计 | 3 | | | | 成本 | | | 划 | | | 理 | 涨 | 卖出看跌期权 | 权 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年5月21日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 顺周期行业领涨，但多头乏力 市场回顾 今日股指涨跌不一，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.47%。从资金面来看，两市成交额小幅上涨37.64亿 元。期指方面，IF放量上涨，IH、IC缩量上涨、IM缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1.商务部谈"美国企图全球禁用中国先进计算芯片"：执行美方措施将涉嫌违法。 2、外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有外媒记者提问，欧委会昨天表示，将计划对进入欧盟的小包裹 征收2欧元的税，这些包裹大多来自中国。欧委会认为这些包裹对欧盟的管控和安全构成了新的挑战。中 方对此有何评论？毛宁对此回应，我们希望欧方能够恪守开放的承诺，为中国企业提供公平、透明、非歧 视的营商环境，为中欧经贸合作创造有利条件。 3、欧盟和英国20日分别宣布对俄罗斯实施新一轮制裁，重点针对俄罗斯能源建设和金融等领域，这次中 国和阿联酋公司也被列入制裁名单，请问外交部对此有何评论？欧盟的做法是否能帮助促进俄乌和谈？毛 宁表示，当前包括欧美在内的大多数国家都在同俄罗斯开展贸易， ...

贵金属日报：持续震荡 中长期维持看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月21日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属价格明显上涨，周边美指回落，10Y美债收益率走高，美股微跌欧股上涨。据媒体报道，美 国情报部门发现，以色列正准备袭击伊朗，推升周三亚盘早盘时段伦敦金一度升破3300关口，原油亦大 涨。最终黄金2506合约收报3292.6美元/盎司，+1.83%；美白银2507合约收报于33.26美元/盎司， +2.32%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报754.38元/克，+0.48%；SHFE白银2506合约收8074元/千 克，-0.21%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.3%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为70.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为28.4%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.4%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率31.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.6%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为16.3%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.8%。长线基 ...

镍&不锈钢：预计短期偏震荡运行 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.9-12.9 | 13.64% | 0.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担心原料价格上 | 根据生产计划买 ...

原木产业风险管理日报 2025年5月20日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 750-820 | 17.24% | 76.9% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 现货敞口 | | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场 区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 原木进口量 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空原木期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | lg2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 850-790 | | 库存管理 | 偏高库存高 位，担心价 格下跌 | 多 | 买入看跌期权防止价格大跌，同时卖出看涨期权 | lg2507P80 0 | 买入 | | 9.5-14 | | | | | 降低资金 ...

贵金属日报：持续震荡 中长期维持看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月20日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属价格窄幅震荡，周边美指回落，10Y美债收益率冲高回落，欧美股整体微涨，穆迪下调美主 权评级影响有限。国内黄金ETF昨日仍现流出，其中华安黄金ETF份额日减414万份至81.5亿份，回升至 80.07亿份，反应国内获利盘仍在回吐，到降幅有所放缓。最终黄金2506合约收报3232.2美元/盎司， +1.41%；美白银2507合约收报于32.495美元/盎司，+0.44%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报755.86元/ 克，+0.53%；SHFE白银2506合约收8133元/千克，+0.35% 【降息预期与基金持仓】 3150，3100，强支撑与2950-3000区域；伦敦银支撑31.6-32区域，阻力33.3，33.7，如突破可看高至 34，34.5。我们仍将短线回调视为中长期做多机会，但近期或维震荡为主。 贵金属期现价格表 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.4%，降息25个基点的概率为 8.6%；美联 ...

贵金属日报：剧震波动 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月19日 【行情回顾】 上周COMEX贵金属整体金跌银震，其中伦敦金周内最低下探至3120附近，为4月10日来新低。利空 面，5月12日，中美两国在日内瓦经贸高层会谈后发布联合公报，宣布达成重要共识，推升市场风险偏 好，黄金明显承压回落。 从投资需求维度看，自4月下旬以来，全球黄金ETF呈现一定获利回吐下的流出 迹象，受贸易冲突、地缘冲突以及美联储降息预期降温等因素影响。鲍威尔周四表示将重新评估2020版 货币政策框架的"关键部分"，长期利率可能走高，"供应冲击"或成新常态；"新美联储通讯社"随后 表示，美联储将对利率制定框架调整，承认长期低利率可能已结束。 利多面，周二晚间公布的美国CPI略 低于预期，缓和通胀担忧并略微改善降息前景。消息面，周五穆迪宣布下调美国主权信用评级从Aaa至 Aa1，原因为美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加，穆迪是三家评级巨头中最后一家剥夺美Aaa 的机构，该 消息或加剧周一美国股债汇波动并利多黄金，建议关注。另外，中国3月减持美债189亦美元至7654亿美 元 ...

苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 source： 【核心矛盾】 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 7400-8000 | 35.25% | 94.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 7600-770 0 | | 理 | 下跌 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The current market has entered the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season, and there is a competition in the market regarding the current and future Brazilian sugar production. The reduction in India's production and the increase in Thailand's production are already facts. After the restriction of domestic syrup and premixed powder and the completion of domestic sugar crushing, the overall situation has little change. Recently, the market has mainly been trading on the expectation of Brazilian sugar production increase [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5800 - 6100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 48.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price decline, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6000 - 6030, and sell call options (SR507C6000) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 60 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5850 - 5870, and sell put options (SR507P5800) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction The main contradiction in the current sugar market is the uncertainty of Brazilian sugar production during the new crushing season, while the situations in India and Thailand are relatively stable, and the domestic situation has little change after relevant restrictions and the end of domestic sugar crushing [4]. 3.3 Bullish Factors - As of the end of March, the national sugar sales volume was 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.261 million tons (26.64%), and the cumulative sales rate was 55.79%, 6.33 percentage points faster year - on - year [5]. - As of April 30, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season in India, there were 19 sugar mills still in production, 4 less than the same period last year. The cane crushed was 275.857 million tons, a decrease of 35.655 million tons (11.44%) compared to the same period last year, and the sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a decrease of 5.77 million tons (18.33%) compared to the same period last year. The final output may be less than 26 million tons [5]. - China has suspended the import of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - As of May 6, 37 sugar mills in Yunnan have completed the crushing process, 8 less than the same period last year. The crushing capacity of the completed mills is 134,400 tons per day, a decrease of 24,600 tons per day compared to the same period last year. 15 sugar mills have not completed the crushing, and the planned crushing time has been postponed due to rainfall [5]. - In the second half of April in the central - southern region of Brazil, 17.725 million tons of sugarcane were crushed, a year - on - year decrease of 49.35%. The sugar production was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.79%, and the ethanol production decreased by 35.37% to 985 million liters. The sugar - to - cane ratio was 45.82%, compared with 44.22% in the previous season. The crushing volume was lower than expected due to rainfall in late April [5]. 3.4 Bearish Factors - Starting from May 9, there has been a lot of rainfall in Guangxi, alleviating the previous drought situation [12]. - Analysis agency JOB predicts that Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/2026 crushing season will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [12]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 2024/2025 crushing season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [12]. 3.5 Sugar Price Data - **Spot Price**: On May 16, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6120, down 20 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; in Liuzhou, it was 6160, down 10 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; in Kunming, it was 5910, down 10 from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week; in Rizhao, it was 6260, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week [10]. - **Futures Price**: On May 16, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5723, with a daily decline of 0.47% and a weekly increase of 0.19%; SR03 was 5693, with a daily decline of 0.52% and a weekly increase of 0.25%; SR05 was 6000, with a daily decline of 1.15% and a weekly decline of 0.78%; SR07 was 5936, with a daily decline of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.2%; SR09 was 5855, with a daily decline of 0.53% and a weekly increase of 0.27%; SR11 was 5774, with a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly increase of 0.23% [9]. - **Import Price**: On May 16, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4919, up 65 from the previous day and up 33 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 6264, up 85 from the previous day and up 44 from the previous week. The in - quota import price of Thai sugar was 4884, up 65 from the previous day and up 40 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 6218, up 85 from the previous day and up 52 from the previous week [11].

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/5/16 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5700-6000 | 10.69% | 6.9% | | 硅锰 | 5500-6000 | 12.73% | 27.9% | source： 南华研究 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | | | 6 ...