Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is in a game stage between warm macro - expectations, regional supply tightening, and concerns about inventory accumulation. In the short term, lead prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a volatile and bullish trend [2]. - The core trading point in the short - term is the divergence between extremely low social inventory and "accumulating factory inventory". Be vigilant against the risk of a decline after a surge [6]. - In the long run, the seasonal decline in the scrap battery scrap volume and the reluctance of recyclers to sell provide rigid cost support for recycled lead, restricting the release of recycled lead production and limiting the downside space of lead prices [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Macro - level**: As the US December interest rate decision approaches, the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is rising. The weak US data has put pressure on the US dollar index, providing valuation support for the non - ferrous sector [2]. - **Supply - side**: In primary lead, smelters in Yunnan, Anhui, and Jiangxi are under centralized maintenance, tightening the regional spot circulation. In recycled lead, due to environmental permit renewal in Anhui and raw material shortages in Inner Mongolia, the operating rate has dropped to 48.4%, and the supply of scattered orders is extremely scarce [2]. - **Demand - side**: In winter, the automotive starting battery is in the traditional peak season. With the year - end sales push, the operating rate of large battery factories has risen to 74.46%, providing rigid demand support for lead prices [2]. - **Inventory - side**: Social inventory has dropped to a 15 - month low of 23,600 tons, giving strong motivation for long - position holders to force short - position holders [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures unilateral**: Go long on dips. The lead price has strong support at the 17,000 yuan/ton level. Buy contracts based on the moving - average support level, with a target price of around 17,500 yuan/ton. Pay close attention to the capital flow before the delivery of the 2512 contract [9]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Carry out calendar spread arbitrage (buy near - term contracts and sell far - term contracts). The current low inventory situation benefits near - term contracts, and the spot premium is firm. The Back structure is expected to be maintained [9]. - **Option strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options. Considering the strong cost support and low inventory, the possibility of a sharp decline in lead prices is very small. Sell put options with a strike price below 16,800 yuan/ton to collect premiums [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, short 75% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 17,400 yuan/ton [10]. - **Raw material management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, long 50% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 16,500 yuan/ton [10]. 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive drivers**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, weakening the US dollar index and boosting LME lead above $2,000/ton; the market is bullish on upcoming US and Chinese economic data; the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces has dropped to 65.92% due to smelter maintenance, tightening the market supply [11]. - **Negative drivers**: The operating rate of recycled lead has dropped to 48.4%, and the finished - product inventory has reached a new low since 2021; the SMM five - region lead ingot social inventory has dropped to a 15 - month low; the automotive battery sector is in the peak season, driving up the comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid batteries [12]. - **Neutral drivers**: High lead prices have suppressed downstream consumption; the factory inventory of primary lead delivery brands has increased, with a risk of inventory transfer for delivery; the profit of recycled lead enterprises has been repaired, which may stimulate the resumption of idle capacity [12][13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Domestic**: China's November CPI annual rate on December 9; the approaching delivery date of the SHFE lead 2512 contract on December 12 [14]. - **International**: US October JOLTs job openings on December 10; the Fed FOMC interest rate decision on December 11 [14]. 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price has been fluctuating strongly this week. Currently, profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The domestic basis structure is stable, and the SHFE lead monthly spread structure is slightly deviated but generally maintains a C structure [15][17]. - **International market**: As of 15:00 this Friday, the LME lead price was $2,016/ton, and the LME lead maintains a C structure [20][33]. 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Analyze the processing fees of primary lead and the relationship between the monthly output of lead concentrates and processing fees [39]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyze the import profit and loss of lead concentrates and their relationship with import volume, as well as the seasonal import and export volume of refined lead, lead concentrates, and lead - acid batteries [41][42][44]. 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Analyze the seasonal supply and actual consumption of domestic lead ingots [48]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Analyze the monthly output of lead concentrates, global lead ore production, electrolytic lead production, and recycled refined lead production, as well as their seasonal patterns and capacity utilization rates [50][51][56][58]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Analyze the seasonal operating rate of lead - acid batteries, including monthly and weekly rates, by type and region. Also, analyze the seasonal export and import volume of Chinese lead - acid batteries and the seasonal inventory days of finished products for enterprises and dealers [65][66][67][68][69].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market showed a weakening trend this week. In the short - term, there is no driving force, presenting a weakening and oscillating pattern, but winter environmental protection speculation should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside space of industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to arrange long - term contracts during the peak season at low prices [1][2]. - The core driving factors for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures include the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, the reduction of production on the supply side due to environmental protection constraints or rising costs, and the expected reduction of production on the demand side due to weak terminal shipments [1]. - The price of industrial silicon is closely related to the price fluctuations of related varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving logic for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures focuses on the progress of eliminating backward production capacity, supply - side production cuts, and demand - side production reduction expectations [1]. - The optimization of production capacity in the industrial silicon industry faces resistance because it is mainly composed of private enterprises with a large number of scattered enterprises, leading to low confidence in effective production capacity clearance through industry self - discipline [1]. - Power cost accounts for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect power cost and then the price of industrial silicon. In December, there are expectations of a decline in the operating rate of industrial silicon production enterprises on the supply side, and the polysilicon industry is likely to cut production, while downstream organic silicon monomer plants have maintenance plans, with only the aluminum alloy industry maintaining a stable operating rate [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Wide - range oscillation and bottom - building [4]. - Price range: Oscillation range is 8400 - 9500; low - level range is 7000 - 8400 [5]. - Basis strategy: Wait and see [5]. 1.3 Industrial Operation Recommendations - For sales management, enterprises with plans to produce industrial silicon in the future can sell corresponding futures contracts or use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) with a recommended hedging ratio of 20% to prevent price drops and profit reduction [5]. - For procurement management, enterprises with plans to produce polysilicon/organic silicon/aluminum alloy can buy corresponding futures contracts or use combination option strategies according to different situations, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% to 30% to prevent cost increases [5]. - For inventory management, enterprises with high industrial silicon inventories can short the main futures contract or use a combination option strategy (sell call options + buy put options) with recommended hedging ratios of 20% and 10% respectively to prevent inventory depreciation [5]. Chapter 2: Important Information and Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On December 2nd, Hesheng Silicon Industry announced the partial share pledge of its controlling shareholder [6]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - No relevant content provided Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the Friday closing price of the industrial silicon futures weighted index contract was 8823 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.29%; the trading volume was 290,100 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9.38%; the open interest was 441,100 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 59,600 lots. The month - spread of SI2601 - SI2605 was in a contango structure, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts was 7288 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 692 lots [12]. - The industrial silicon weighted futures price gradually fell below the 60 - day moving average this week. Combining the MACD indicator signals and open interest data changes, the disk showed the characteristic of "short - position increasing and price falling" [12]. - The current industrial silicon futures price has gradually moved from the middle track to the lower track of the Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Bandwidth has shown a certain expansion. The first support level of 8700 yuan/ton and the second support level of 8400 yuan/ton should be focused on [12]. 3.2 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been slowly weakening in the past week, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually narrowing [14]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options of industrial silicon has been oscillating and weakening in the past week [14]. - The PCR of industrial silicon option open interest has been decreasing recently, indicating that the proportion of put option open interest relative to call option open interest has decreased, and the market's bullish sentiment is gradually rising [14]. 3.3 Silicon Industry Chain Spot Data - The prices of different grades and regions of industrial silicon and its downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit 4.1 Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industry Chain - Since reaching the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous repair channel. The profit in the southwest region has declined rapidly due to the dry season [25]. - The polysilicon industry, the core downstream demand area of industrial silicon, has stable profits, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, and the profit level of the organic silicon industry is declining [25]. Chapter 5: Fundamentals 5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - The weekly production and operating rate data of industrial silicon from different sources (Baichuan, Steel Union, SMM) are provided, showing different trends of production and operating rate changes [32]. - The inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions and forms are presented, including national, regional, and port inventories [47][48][49]. 5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production data of domestic polysilicon from different sources (SMM, Baichuan) are provided, with different trends of production changes. The weekly inventory data of domestic polysilicon in different parts (total inventory, production enterprise inventory, silicon wafer enterprise inventory, etc.) are also given [51][52][54]. 5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The weekly operating rate and inventory data of primary and secondary aluminum alloys are provided, showing different trends of operating rate and inventory changes [58][59]. 5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production data of organic silicon DMC are provided, showing a slight decrease in weekly production but an increase in monthly production [63]. 5.5 Terminal - The data of terminal products such as Chinese commercial housing sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity are presented [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the resumption of production at Ningde and the expected Q1 off - season, the supply - demand marginal game in the lithium carbonate market will intensify, and the price fluctuation range is expected to expand. However, in the long - term, the long - term value supported by the industry fundamentals remains unchanged, and there are opportunities to go long on dips. It is recommended that investors focus on the structural long - making opportunities after the correction and make batch layouts based on the reasonable valuation range [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The driving logic of lithium carbonate futures prices in the next month will focus on factors such as the tightness of domestic lithium ore inventory, the resumption progress of Jiaxiaowo, the downstream restocking rhythm, and Q1 downstream production scheduling. The supply of lithium ore is affected by the "resumption progress of Jiaxiaowo", and the demand side is strong with continuous inventory depletion. The downstream restocking rhythm and technical factors also affect the price [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Near - term trading logic (before the end of the year): lithium ore inventory tightness, Jiaxiaowo lithium ore resumption progress, and downstream restocking rhythm. Distant - term trading logic (after the end of the year): not elaborated in detail [5][6] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Strategy Recommendations - For procurement management, different strategies are recommended according to whether the product price is correlated. For sales management, strategies are provided to prevent price decline risks. For inventory management, short - selling futures contracts is recommended to lock in the value of inventory [5] 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - It includes the resumption progress of Ningde Jiaxiaowo lithium ore, downstream Q1 production scheduling, and a series of industry news such as corporate cooperation agreements and project financing [8][10] 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information - None 3.3 Futures and Price Data 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, lithium carbonate futures prices showed a weakening trend. The MACD and moving averages, and the Bollinger Bands indicated potential further decline risks. The first support level is 90,000 yuan/ton, and the second is 88,000 yuan/ton. The 20 - day historical volatility of futures decreased, the implied volatility of at - the - money options weakened, and the PCR of option positions declined. The long - position scale increased this week [14][15][17] 3.3.2 Month - Spread Structure - The current term structure of lithium carbonate futures shows a contango structure. Near - term contracts are affected by the resumption of production news and the Q1 off - season, while long - term contracts are supported by factors such as the development of the domestic energy storage industry and the growth of new energy vehicle demand [22] 3.3.3 CME and LME Lithium Hydroxide Futures - CME lithium hydroxide futures prices showed different changes in different months, and information on LME lithium hydroxide futures was briefly mentioned without detailed data analysis [28][29][32] 3.3.4 Basis Structure - This week, the basis of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated widely, and the current basis level is within a reasonable range [34] 3.3.5 Spot Price Data - The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salts, and battery materials showed different changes this week, including price increases and decreases [36] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Profit Tracking of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industrial Chain - The demand for lithium - ion batteries has driven the improvement of the profitability of the entire lithium - battery industry chain. The profit of the lithium carbonate production line of upstream lithium salt plants is rising, while the profit of the lithium hydroxide production line is weakening. The profit of cathode materials and lithium - ion battery electrolyte also shows different trends [38] 3.4.2 Import and Export Profits - This week, the import profit of lithium carbonate showed a marginal upward trend, while the export profit of lithium hydroxide showed a marginal weakening trend [43] 3.5 Fundamental Situation 3.5.1 Lithium Ore Supply - Domestic lithium ore production, overseas imports, and inventory data are provided. The total available inventory of domestic lithium ore decreased this week, and the port inventory also decreased [46][49][50] 3.5.2 Upstream Lithium Salt Supply - For lithium carbonate supply, the overall start - up rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and the total output increased slightly. The start - up rates and outputs of different production lines showed different changes. The net export and inventory of lithium carbonate also changed. For lithium hydroxide supply, monthly production and start - up rate data are provided [56][70][80] 3.5.3 Mid - Stream Material Factory Supply - The output and start - up rates of battery material factories such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed different trends this week. The inventory of material factories also has corresponding changes [86][99][101] 3.5.4 Downstream Cell Supply - The weekly output of power cells in China increased slightly, and the monthly output of power, energy storage, and consumer - type cells shows seasonal characteristics. The lithium - battery installation volume also has corresponding data [107][109][110] 3.5.5 New Energy Vehicles - The production and sales of new energy vehicles, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, showed different trends. The inventory of the automotive industry also has corresponding data [113][120][123] 3.5.6 Energy Storage - The total winning bid power scale and winning bid capacity scale of energy storage show corresponding trends [126]

南华期货光伏产业周报 ——交割品牌增加，下行风险增大 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周多晶硅期货价格整体呈震荡偏弱态势。当前主导多晶硅期货价格走势的核心逻辑，聚焦于以下因素：供 给端检修停产情况、下游需求端排产情况、光伏反内卷政策、新注册交割品牌的仓单注册情况。 从基本面角度看，行业基本面当前呈现"供需双弱"的特征：供给端，多晶硅环节产量已出现下滑趋势，行 业供给扩张节奏显著放缓；需求端，下游硅片、电池片及组件环节产量同步承压，产业链整体呈现收缩态 势。库存端，多晶硅库存仍处于近期高位，未见明显拐点。从终端需求来看，组件招标市场表现持续疲软， 招标数量与成交均价均处于历史相对低位，预计后续基本面弱平衡状态仍在延续。 从时间维度来看，当前光伏收储平台落地进程未出现实质性进展。同时，由于近两周市场炒作可交割品不足 的问题，广期所已于周五新增两个厂家的交割品，预计后续将对多晶硅期货产生较大影响。 从 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The mid - term weakness of crude oil may not support large - scale winter storage of asphalt. Refinery profits offer limited room for price cuts, suppressing the enthusiasm for winter storage, which may face a "lack of volume" problem. The winter storage policy in Shandong is expected to be announced next week, with prices likely around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton [2]. - This week, the overall asphalt supply slightly decreased due to adjustments in North China refineries. The demand improved as prices dropped, mainly consuming social inventories. The peak season in the south did not exceed expectations. Factory inventories slightly increased, while social inventories decreased. Crude oil prices were weakly volatile, and the spot basis continued to weaken. In the long - term, northern demand will end with falling temperatures, while southern demand may increase after rainfall decreases [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to winter storage and whether refineries will adjust prices to stimulate purchases. The long - term market will be affected by macro factors, policies, winter storage, and geopolitical situations [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The mid - term weakness of crude oil and limited refinery profit margins may lead to insufficient winter storage volume. The winter storage price in Shandong is expected to be around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton. After the policy is announced, it may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Options sellers can be used for two - way strategies, or opportunities for long - position in BU03 basis can be considered [2]. - Other factors remain unchanged. Supply decreased slightly this week, demand improved as prices dropped, and the market is in a weakly volatile state. Attention should be paid to winter storage and price adjustments by refineries [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The market is expected to be weakly volatile. Technical analysis suggests paying attention to the pressure level of 3050 and support level of 2950 for BU2601. The basis is expected to be bearish, the monthly spread may weaken seasonally, and there is no obvious driver for the crack spread between asphalt and crude oil, so it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when product inventories are high, short - selling asphalt futures or selling call options can be used to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when inventory is low, buying asphalt futures or selling put options can be used to lock in purchase costs and reduce expenses [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Domestic Asphalt Market Review**: Prices in South China, Shandong, Northwest, Northeast, and North China decreased by 25 - 350 yuan/ton this week. Northern demand decreased, and some refineries in the Northwest offered low - price winter storage. In South China, supply increased, and prices decreased. The East China market had sufficient supply [18]. - **Spot Market Outlook**: Asphalt consumption is entering the off - season, demand is under pressure, Shandong refineries have复产 plans, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil may decline [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Geopolitical situation changes, including the shipping and arrival of Venezuelan crude oil, Russian crude oil exports, the possibility of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and changes in floating storage inventories at sea. Also, pay attention to the asphalt winter storage policy [20]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Fund Movement**: This week, the asphalt price fluctuated, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short - position of key profitable seats decreased, indicating that some institutions are more optimistic about the future, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The asphalt basis structure weakened significantly this week, with the spot price close to the futures price. This is because spot trading was dull, and low - price contract resources supported market activity [26]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The monthly spread structure of asphalt continued to weaken, which is in line with the characteristics of the off - season [37]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - In the coking material market, the price of Shandong coking material increased by 75 to 3500 yuan/ton as of December 4. The profit of coking units improved, but high - price resource transactions were limited. The mainstream transaction price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt decreased by 25 to 2960 - 3450 yuan/ton. The demand decreased, supply increased, and the price may continue to fall. The price difference between asphalt and coking material widened, but most asphalt plants have no plans to switch to producing coking materials in the short term [41]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - **South Korea Market**: The CIF price of South Korean asphalt in East China is 400 - 410 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3300 - 3380 yuan/ton. Some high - speed projects in East China are driving the consumption of imported asphalt, while demand in the North has decreased significantly [51]. - **New - Malaysia - Thailand Market**: The CIF price of Singaporean asphalt in South China is 500 - 520 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 4030 - 4190 yuan/ton. The CIF price of Thai asphalt in South China is 515 - 525 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 4150 - 4230 yuan/ton. The overall demand is stable, but the consumption of imported asphalt is limited due to competition from domestic resources [51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - From January to October 2025, China's asphalt production was 2361 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 267 million tons or 13%. From January to November, the expected production is about 2585 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260 million tons or 11% [54]. 5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - Most modified asphalt plants in the North have stopped production, while demand in the South has increased due to construction rush, leading to an increase in the local modified asphalt operating rate [74]. 5.3 Inventory Side and Deduction - Some social warehouses in the Northeast and Northwest will gradually receive refinery resources, and inventory levels will slowly rise. In the South, stable project construction has led to a continuous decline in social inventory levels [88]. 5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes from January to October 2025 [111]. 5.5 Weather Outlook - In the next 10 days (December 6 - 15), many regions in China will have precipitation, with some areas having higher precipitation than the same period of the year, while some areas will have less precipitation [112].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Cotton Prices Fluctuate, Pay Attention to Upper Pressure [1] - Date: December 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Core Contradictions - As of December 4, 2025, the cumulative national new - season cotton notarized inspection volume was 4.6436 million tons, with the average daily notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton around 80,000 tons. There is still hedging pressure on the futures market. Spot basis quotes have slightly decreased, while fixed - price quotes remain firm [2]. - Downstream overall load is stable, spinners' profits are acceptable, and finished - product inventory pressure is not large. Yarn sales are better than grey fabric sales, and spinners have a rigid demand for replenishing cotton inventory. Follow - up orders need attention [2]. 2.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Near - term Trading Logic**: New cotton is accelerating onto the market, but the downstream has resilience. Despite being in the traditional off - season, some sectors have good orders and spinners maintain certain profits. As long as the final cotton output does not increase unexpectedly, the downside space for cotton prices is limited. Pay attention to whether the hedging pressure around 13,800 can be broken [4]. - **Long - term Trading Logic**: In recent years, domestic downstream textile production capacity has expanded significantly. Xinjiang spinning mills maintain high - load operation, increasing the rigid consumption of cotton raw materials. Sino - US trade expectations are gradually improving. Although domestic cotton production has increased significantly, imports are still needed to fill the gap. The total 1% import tariff quota for cotton in 2026 remains at 894,000 tons, and with the additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale quota, the total new - season import quota is still relatively low. The probability of further increasing the cotton import quota is low, so the domestic cotton supply - demand may remain tight in the new season. Pay attention to the demand side under the influence of new - season policy changes [15][16]. 2.3 Strategy Recommendations for Industrial Customers - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be between 13,500 and 14,000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0542, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 0.0365 [18]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,900 - 14,000. They can also sell call options (CF605C14000) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 200 - 250 [18]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,400 - 13,500. They can also sell put options (CF601P13400) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 250 - 300 [18]. 2.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Data**: Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,750, up 25 (0.18%); Zhengzhou cotton 05 closed at 13,720, up 35 (0.26%); Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13,855, up 65 (0.47%) [19]. - **Spot Data**: CC Index 3128B was at 15,022, up 126 (0.85%); CC Index 2227B was at 13,165, up 148 (1.14%); CC Index 2129B was at 15,290, up 148 (0.98%) [19]. - **Spread Data**: CF1 - 5 spread was 30, down 10; CF5 - 9 spread was - 135, down 30; CF9 - 1 spread was 105, up 40 [20]. - **Import Price**: FC Index M was at 12,853, down 82 (- 0.63%); FCY Index C32s was at 21,116, up 19 (0.09%) [20]. - **Cotton Yarn Data**: The futures price was 20,005, down 85 (- 0.42%); the现货 price was 20,770, up 30 (0.14%) [20]. Group 3: Weekly Information and Upcoming Events 3.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - As of November 27, the national new - cotton picking progress was 99.6%, the same as last year and 0.1 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national delivery rate was 98.5%, 1.0 percentage points higher than last year and 2.2 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national processing rate was 72.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than last year and 9.8 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national sales rate was 33.2%, 18.9 percentage points higher than last year and 22.1 percentage points higher than the four - year average [20]. - In October, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China were 147.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.54% and a year - on - year increase of 9.21% [21]. - As of October 23, 2025, the cumulative net signed export volume of US cotton for the 2025/26 season was 1.137 million tons, accounting for 42.81% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipped volume was 398,000 tons, with a shipping rate of 34.98% [21]. - As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative new - season seed cotton listing volume in Pakistan, converted to lint cotton, was about 796,000 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons from the previous two weeks and a 1.1% decrease compared to the same period last year [21]. - **Negative Information**: - In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. Textile exports were 11.258 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.05% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.92%; clothing exports were 11.004 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 15.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.64% [22]. - As of November 15, the total national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 4.5711 million tons, an increase of 752,300 tons from the end of October. Commercial inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from the end of October, and industrial inventory was 931,400 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from the end of October [22]. - In October 2025, the export volume of cotton products was 608,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.36% and a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. The export value was 4.678 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 17.09% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.12%. The export unit price was 7.69 US dollars per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 15.96% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.13% [22]. 3.2 Next Week's Important Events - The cotton harvest in Xinjiang is basically completed. Pay attention to the processing and final output of Xinjiang cotton [23]. - Follow up on US cotton export data and the adjustment of the December USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Report [23]. Group 4: Disk Interpretation 4.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated around 13,700 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The downward movement was mainly driven by long - position exits rather than short - position increases. Market trading was cautious, and the hedging pressure around 13,800 was obvious [31]. - **Month - spread Structure**: The cotton 1 - 5 spread still shows a slight back structure, but after the 05 contract, it maintains a contango structure, indicating an expectation of tight supply - demand at the end of the year [34]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the cotton basis slightly decreased. The fixed - price quotes for hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang (3130/30B/impurity within 2) and machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang (3130/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) are around 14,800 - 14,950 (on a legal weight basis). The spot sales basis for the same - quality cotton is mostly in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250, and the basis in the 1000 - 1100 range slightly increased this week [36]. Group 5: Valuation and Profit Analysis 5.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technological innovation, Xinjiang spinning mills have a significant cost advantage over those in the inland. Xinjiang spinning has always maintained certain profits, while inland mills were basically slightly loss - making in the third quarter. Since September, due to the hedging pressure from ginning mills and the supply pressure of new cotton, domestic cotton prices have declined, while yarn spot prices have been relatively stable, significantly repairing domestic spinners' profits. This week, cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly, while yarn prices were relatively stable, and spinners' profits narrowed compared to last week [38]. 5.2 Import Profit Tracking - China is a large cotton - importing country. Affected by the Xinjiang cotton ban and tariff policies, domestic and foreign cotton prices move relatively independently. This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is currently low, and the domestic cotton import volume remains at a low level. In October 2025, China's cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The cumulative cotton import volume in the 2025/26 season was 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.4%. This week, foreign cotton prices trended weakly, and China's cotton import profit slightly increased [40]. Group 6: Supply and Inventory Projection 6.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The new - season cotton harvest in Xinjiang is basically completed. With the progress of new - cotton procurement, the expected output of Xinjiang cotton has been slightly revised upwards again, indicating a bumper harvest. In terms of imports, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued an additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale quota, and together with the 894,000 - ton 1% tariff quota issued in 2026, the new - season cotton import volume is tentatively estimated at 1.1 million tons. Given the domestic bumper harvest and the unchanged Sino - US situation, the probability of further increasing the sliding - scale quota is currently low. On the downstream side, domestic demand may maintain a moderate recovery. Although it is currently the traditional off - season, some textile and clothing sectors have good orders. On the export side, although there are no "rush - to - export" orders, with the further relaxation of Sino - US trade, domestic cotton consumption expectations are still supported [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, but the profit of terminal steel mills is under pressure, and the hot metal production continues to decrease, leading to an increase in the surplus of coking coal. The inventory pressure of upstream mines is gradually emerging, and the short - term coal price will still be under pressure. The supply of coke is expected to increase, and the coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. The spot price of coke may face more than 2 rounds of price reduction pressure [2]. - The JiaoMei 01 contract has a clear short - term bearish trend, and the short positions at the previous high can be held. The far - month 05 contract has medium - to - long - term long - allocation value. For coke, the current main contract price has factored in 4 - 5 rounds of price cuts, and it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal supply: Domestic mine production decreased slightly this week. The impact of over - production inspection and environmental protection inspection continues. In December, the domestic mine operation is expected to be generally stable, and the possibility of a significant increase in coking coal production is low. The Mongolian coal at the port actively cleared customs this week. The import profit of coking coal has narrowed, and the subsequent arrival of overseas coal is expected to decline [2]. - Coking coal demand: Terminal steel mills' profit is under pressure, hot metal production continues to decrease, and coking enterprises actively control the raw material procurement rhythm, resulting in increased inventory pressure on upstream mines [2]. - Coke supply: Due to the decline in the cost of coking coal, the immediate coking profit has recovered, and the subsequent coke supply is expected to increase [2]. - Coke demand: With the gradual recovery of coking enterprise operation, coke may face inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of mainstream steel mills [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a downward relay [8]. - **Price Range**: JM2601 operates in the range of 1000 - 1100, 2605 in the range of 1100 - 1350; J2601 operates in the range of 1500 - 1700, 2605 in the range of 1650 - 1900 [8]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis of coking coal has slightly narrowed, and the basis of coke is currently at a moderately high valuation. It is recommended that industrial customers with coke inventory speed up sales [9]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal fluctuated little this week, and the 1 - 5 positive spread of coke strengthened. The 1 - 5 positive spread of coke is expected to continue to strengthen [9]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: None [10]. - **Option Strategy**: None [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Coking Coal Purchase Management**: It is recommended that industrial customers with purchase plans maintain normal raw material inventory and wait for the spot valuation to fall before purchasing [12]. - **Coke Sales Management**: It is recommended that industrial customers with coke inventory speed up sales [12]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The output of some coking coal mines and coal washing plants has changed slightly. The total inventory of coking coal samples has increased by 42.97 tons compared with last week [13]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants has increased slightly. The total inventory of coke samples has decreased by 1.69 tons compared with last week [13]. - **Coal - Coke Futures Price and Spread**: The price and spread of coking coal and coke futures contracts have changed to varying degrees [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The social inventory of steel products has continued to decline, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased. The profitability of steel mills has improved [20][21]. - **Negative Information**: The enthusiasm of coking plants for restocking is poor, and the inventory pressure of mine coking coal has increased. The coking enterprise operation rate has increased, and the number of downstream steel - mill overhauls has increased, deteriorating the supply - demand structure of coke [21]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Next Monday, pay attention to China's November trade balance in US dollars. - Next Wednesday, pay attention to China's November M2 money supply annual rate and November CPI annual rate. - Next Thursday, pay attention to the upper limit of the Fed's interest rate decision as of December 10 and the number of initial jobless claims in the US as of December 6 [22][25]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The JiaoMei 2601 contract is oscillating at the bottom this week, with a clear short - term bearish trend. The coke 2601 contract has a driving force to rebound and repair the basis [23]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal fluctuated little this week, and the 1 - 5 positive spread of coke strengthened [32]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of coking coal has slightly narrowed, and the current basis of coke is at a moderately high valuation. It is recommended that industrial customers with coke inventory speed up sales [41]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The profit of coking coal mines has declined from a high level, the immediate coking profit is expected to shrink marginally, and the loss situation of steel mills has eased [49]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The clearance enthusiasm at the 288 port has significantly increased, but the long - term trade profit of Mongolian coal has shrunk significantly. The import profit of overseas coal has narrowed, and the subsequent arrival of overseas coal is expected to decline [51][56]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - In the fourth quarter, the production increase space of coking coal mines is limited. It is expected that the average weekly output of coking coal in December will be about 9.67 million tons, and the net import volume will be 10 - 10.2 million tons [78]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - Recently, the profit of steel mills has shrunk, and the number of steel mills planning overhauls has increased. It is estimated that the daily average hot metal output in December will be 2.29 million tons [81]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply and demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke from Week 40 to Week 51 in 2025 are estimated, and the changes in supply, demand, and inventory are predicted [85].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 24.64 points, or 0.97%. The most influential varieties were copper and silver, with the copper variety index rising 6.2% and contributing 0.47%, and the silver variety index rising 7.54% and contributing 0.46%. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose 12.72 points, or 0.36%. The most influential varieties were copper and aluminum, with the copper variety index contributing 0.53% and the aluminum variety index contributing 0.18%. The Nanhua Metal Index rose 112.05 points, or 1.72%. The most influential variety was copper, contributing 1.05%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index fell 16.75 points, or -1.08%. The most influential variety was glass, contributing -0.21%. The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fell 3.35 points, or -0.32%. The most influential variety was live pigs, contributing -0.23% [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Data Overview - **Index Performance**: The Nanhua Composite Index closed at 2577.08 this week, up 24.64 points from last week, with a gain of 0.97%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index closed at 1664.41, up 55.14 points, or 3.43%. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index closed at 3511.97, up 12.72 points, or 0.36%. The Nanhua Metal Index closed at 6612.13, up 112.05 points, or 1.72%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index closed at 1537.11, down 16.75 points, or -1.08%. The Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index closed at 1808.01, up 41.86 points, or 2.37%. The Nanhua Black Index closed at 2512.02, up 19.53 points, or 0.78%. The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index closed at 1053.88, down 3.35 points, or -0.32% [3]. - **Arbitrage Data**: In the comparison of Nanhua commodity index ratios, the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index increased from 0.630 to 0.646, with a change of 0.015367754 and a ranking of 0.999. The ratio of the industrial products index to the composite index decreased from 1.371 to 1.363, with a change of -0.008172839 and a ranking of 0.084. The ratio of the metal index to the industrial products index increased from 1.858 to 1.883, with a change of 0.025179206 and a ranking of 0.972 [9]. 2. Weekly Data of Nanhua Sector Indexes - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: The most influential varieties were copper, aluminum, and pulp. Copper contributed 0.53%, aluminum contributed 0.18%, and pulp contributed 0.12% [14]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: The most influential varieties were copper, aluminum, and rebar. Copper contributed 1.05%, aluminum contributed 0.35%, and rebar contributed 0.23% [14]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: The most influential varieties were glass, natural rubber, and liquefied petroleum gas. Glass contributed -0.21%, natural rubber contributed -0.17%, and liquefied petroleum gas contributed a certain negative value [14]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: The most influential varieties were live pigs, sugar, and soybean meal. Live pigs contributed -0.23%, sugar contributed -0.10%, and soybean meal contributed -0.09% [14]. - **Nanhua Black Index**: The most influential varieties were rebar, manganese silicon, and stainless steel. Rebar contributed 0.45%, manganese silicon contributed 0.10%, and stainless steel contributed 0.09% [15]. - **Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index**: The most influential varieties were copper, aluminum, and zinc. Copper contributed 1.87%, aluminum contributed 0.64%, and zinc contributed 0.36% [17]. 3. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Fluctuation to Index Fluctuation - The weekly average position of copper increased by 15.06%, with a position - holding ratio of 1.48%. The weekly average position of soybean meal was 3789097 hands, with a position - holding ratio of 9.15% and a year - on - year increase of - 0.11%. The weekly average position of sugar was 2293526 hands, with a position - holding ratio of 5.54% and a year - on - year increase of 6.74% [19].

南华纸浆产业周报 —— 期价波动明显 俞俊臣（投资咨询证号：Z0021065 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月5日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 关注现货价格变动、港口去库存情况，以及浆厂与纸厂停工复产情况。可据此进行行情的即时研判，如现价 延续跌势，港口去库进程良好，则期价可能正式开启下跌行情。 * 远端交易预期 远端上，布针仓单的影响已基本计价，影响偏弱，相反远期仓单的供应存疑，带来一定利好。美联储持续降 息进程可能暂止，宏观情绪相对转弱。国内反内卷的大战略方针之下，政策端随时可以出现利多因素。 1.2 交易型策略建议 【行情定位】 本周的核心因素在于国外浆企关停带来的供应端变动。国外一家大型浆厂宣布关停，另一家浆厂宣布暂时停 产，产能短期会出现相对明显的下滑，从供应角度利好期价走势。使得期价接连两日大涨， 从基本面来看，中国港口库存回落7.1万吨，去库相对明显，仍处于相对高位，给期价的压力持续。 在终端需求方面，下游各类纸种开工负荷率有所回升，需求有所回暖，但基于当前行业整体情况来看，需求 仍处于地位。 纸浆期价在周五有所回落，针叶浆现货市场行情反转 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - Short - term, industrial enterprise profit growth faces pressure, but may improve in 2025 with policy implementation. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10, with a mild appreciation rhythm. The stock index is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the bond market may be affected by policy expectations [2][4]. Commodities Metals - Platinum and palladium are likely to be weak in the short term, with investment attributes as the main driver. Gold and silver are expected to rise in the long - term, but silver may face short - term profit - taking pressure. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina may be weak. Zinc is expected to be strong, and nickel and stainless steel will continue to oscillate. Tin prices are strongly driven by funds, and short - term shorting is not recommended. Lithium carbonate prices may experience a short - term correction [12][16][18][20]. Black Metals - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500. Iron ore prices have limited downside in the short term. Coking coal and coke prices may face short - term pressure, and ferroalloys are expected to be weakly oscillatory [30][31][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate downward in the long - term, with short - term multi - empty factors in balance. LPG is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern. PX - PTA has a relatively good supply - demand structure, but PTA processing fee recovery space is limited. MEG is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the valuation is under pressure in the long - term. Methanol 01 maintains a weak expectation. PP and PE are expected to be oscillatory, with PE showing a weakening trend. EB is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. Fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [40][41][43][46][50]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be affected by policy in the long - term, but in the short - term, the near - month delivery pressure persists. Oilseeds and oils are expected to oscillate, waiting for market guidance. Cotton prices have limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level. Sugar prices remain weak, eggs are expected to be bearish in the long - term, apples maintain a strong pattern, and jujubes may have limited downside in the short - term [79][80][81][83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Pay attention to US PCE inflation data. China - France high - level meetings are held, and the US employment market shows a "no - firing, no - hiring" pattern. There are rumors that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December, and the EU plans to build a unified capital market [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.069 on the previous trading day, down 29 basis points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was raised by 21 basis points. Short - term, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated strongly on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising 0.34%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1,210.02 billion yuan. Short - term, the stock index is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the release of PCE data [4][5][7]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds closed down on Thursday, with the 30 - year yield reaching a high point. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase was 180.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. Short - term, the market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting [7]. Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping market fluctuated slightly on December 4. The 02 contract has limited upward space, and the far - month contracts are under pressure from the expected resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The market is affected by multiple factors, with long - short factors competing [8][9][10]. Commodities Metals Platinum and Palladium - NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts closed down at night. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is about 89%. Short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and prices mainly follow gold and silver [12]. Gold and Silver - London gold and silver prices showed a pattern of gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is high. Long - term, precious metal prices are expected to rise, but short - term, silver may face profit - taking pressure [13][14][16]. Copper - Overnight, Comex copper, LME copper, etc. had different trends. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors [17][18]. Aluminum and Related Products - Shanghai aluminum closed up, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly oscillatory [20][21]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc closed up. The ADP data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, supply may contract, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strongly oscillatory [21][22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel and stainless steel oscillated. Nickel ore is expected to be stable and strong, and the new - energy sector has limited support. Stainless steel fundamentals have limited improvement, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and the December interest - rate cut expectation [22][23][24]. Tin - Shanghai tin was strongly driven by funds. The ADP data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, and the supply side has problems. Short - term, shorting is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the 315,000 yuan level [25]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures contract closed up slightly. The spot market sentiment improved, but the price may experience a short - term correction [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to environmental protection. Polysilicon's short - term trading focuses on the "warehouse receipt inventory and open interest" game [27][28]. Lead - Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly and rose slightly at night. The smelting side has production cuts, and the inventory has decreased. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,400 [29]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices oscillated strongly. The supply - demand balance is improving marginally, but the profit of steel enterprises is declining. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500 [30][31]. Iron Ore - Iron ore oscillated, and the industrial contradictions were alleviated. The steel demand is in the off - season, and the steel mill's production cut and profit recovery provide support. The short - term price has limited downside [32][34]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke contracts completed the main contract change. Coking coal supply is in a slight surplus, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Coking coal 01 is in a short - term bearish trend, while the 05 contract has long - term multi - allocation value [35][36]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded. The steel mill's profitability is declining, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded. The market is affected by the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and the US - Russia negotiation. Long - term, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [40][41]. LPG - LPG prices maintained an oscillatory pattern. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. The price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [42][43]. PTA - PX - PX supply decreased slightly, and PTA supply increased. The demand for polyester is high, and PTA processing fees have been repaired. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans and the dynamics of blending oil [44][46]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG supply increased, and the demand for polyester is high. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the long - term valuation is under pressure [47][50]. Methanol - Methanol 01 maintained a weak expectation. The price rebounded due to the shutdown in Iran. The subsequent game focuses on unloading speed, inland demand, and Iranian shipping volume [51][52]. PP - PP prices were weak in the spot market. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand is weak. The current valuation is low, and shorting is not recommended [53][55]. PE - PE prices returned to a weak oscillatory pattern. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to be weakly oscillatory [56][57]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene is in a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the export demand of styrene and the terminal demand [58][59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply and demand of fuel oil are affected by multiple factors [60][61][62]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices declined slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The winter - storage policy is about to be introduced, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [62][64]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog futures prices declined. The northern and southern pig markets showed different trends. Policy may affect long - term supply, but near - month delivery pressure persists [79][80]. Oilseeds - The external market of oilseeds oscillated weakly, and the domestic market followed. The supply of imported soybeans and the demand for domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by multiple factors. Attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement [81][82]. Oils - The domestic oils market oscillated. The supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by different factors. The price is expected to continue to oscillate, waiting for data guidance [83]. Cotton - ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton prices declined. The new cotton is accelerating to the market, and the downstream has resilience. The cotton price has limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level [84]. Sugar - International and domestic sugar prices were weak. The global sugar supply is in excess, and the price is expected to remain weak [85][86]. Eggs - Egg futures prices remained unchanged. The market demand has recovered, and the inventory has been cleared. The long - term egg production capacity is still in excess, and the price is expected to be bearish [87]. Apples - Apple futures prices declined, but the strong pattern remains. The inventory of late - Fuji apples decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [88][89]. Jujubes - Jujube prices oscillated at a low level. The new jujubes are being harvested, and the price may have limited downside in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the final production [90].