Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data release and its impact on the economy. In the US, the potential replacement of the Atlanta Fed President by a dovish candidate and the uncertainty of the next Fed Chair's identity could affect the interest - rate cut outlook. Domestically, the economic data shows a marginal slowdown, and the strength and effectiveness of policy support are key concerns [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, it broke through the 7.10 mark due to the weak US dollar index, and is expected to get some support from seasonal effects. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.12, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at 7.07 [6]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate due to the weak recovery of the domestic fundamentals and the influence of external factors such as US officials' hawkish remarks and the release of key US economic data [7]. - For treasury bonds, mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term investors can buy on dips [8]. - In the container shipping market, the EC2602 contract's last trading day is confirmed. The market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with multiple long and short factors in play. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrageurs can focus on specific spreads [9][10][11]. - For precious metals, in the short - term, the adjustment may continue. Long - term factors still support the upward movement of precious metal prices. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for gold and silver [17]. - For copper, the macro - environment is mixed, and the fundamental de - stocking limits the price increase. The copper price is expected to find a balance based on downstream procurement, with different price ranges predicted [20][21]. - For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][24]. - For zinc, it is expected to show a relatively strong and fluctuating trend, with support at the bottom in November [24]. - For tin, it is recommended to enter the market on dips as the supply is weak compared to demand in the short - term [25]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and they are expected to show wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [28]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and opportunities at the lower level can be noted [29]. - For steel products (rebar and hot - rolled coil), they are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, with the lower limit supported by raw material costs and the upper limit restricted by inventory [32]. - For iron ore, the short - term supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating, but there is a structural shortage. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low prices for better risk - return [34][36]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term prices may adjust, but in the long - term, they may strengthen with the implementation of policies and winter storage demand. Specific price ranges are provided for investment [37][38]. - For ferroalloys (silicon iron and silicon manganese), they are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [39]. - For crude oil, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level between 60 - 65 dollars, with key attention on geopolitical and risk - aversion factors [44]. - For LPG, it is expected to show a relatively strong and fluctuating trend, with a high valuation [46]. - For PTA - PX, they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, but the PTA surplus expectation restricts the processing fee recovery [50]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the long - term supply - demand surplus remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Specific price levels are provided for operation [53]. - For urea, it is expected to continue to fluctuate, with the downward space supported and the upward space pressured [55]. - For PP, the short - term supply - demand situation improves, and the PP1 - 5 positive spread is supported [58]. - For PE, it shows a bottom - up trend, but the upward space is limited due to the long - term weak supply - demand pattern [61]. - For pure benzene and styrene, they rebounded at a low level, but the fundamental surplus situation remains, and the rebound height is limited [62][63]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be at a low - level consolidation with upward drivers [65][66]. - For asphalt, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the winter storage situation [69]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the supply and demand are affected by multiple factors, and the price may face pressure during the upward process [70]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, the fundamentals are weak. Soda ash is cost - priced, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda has a weak supply - demand pattern in the long - term [71][72][73]. - For pulp and offset paper, they are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations with a slightly downward - shifted center [75]. - For logs, long - term strategies such as 01 - 03 reverse spreads can be considered [76]. - For propylene, it is expected to fluctuate, with the supply side being the main source of price fluctuations [78]. - For hogs, the near - term pressure is large. It is recommended to wait and see and participate in reverse spreads appropriately [83]. - For oilseeds, the USDA report's bullish effect was less than expected. The domestic soybean meal shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [84][85][86]. - For oils, they are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the upward opportunities of the far - month 05 contract [88]. - For soybeans, the bullish trend continues with strong capital buying willingness [90]. - For corn and starch, they are expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom, with limited one - way upward movement [92]. - For cotton, the domestic supply pressure is increasing, and the price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, but there is still some support from the demand side [94]. - For sugar, attention should be paid to the performance around 5500 [96]. - For eggs, the long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and it is recommended to participate in long positions lightly if betting on a rebound [97]. - For apples, the recent trend remains strong [99]. - For jujubes, the new - season production is still uncertain. The price may have limited downward space during the purchase season, and attention should be paid to the commodity rate and purchase situation [101]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Key events include the publication of important articles on new - quality productivity, government meetings on promoting consumption, and the release of China's October economic data. The US has a schedule for releasing important economic data, and there are developments in trade agreements and Fed interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The previous trading day's exchange rate data is provided. It is affected by the US dollar index and domestic policies. The key is to follow economic data and domestic enterprise settlement intentions [3][4][6]. - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's stock index was weak, and the trading volume decreased. The release of October financial and economic data shows that the domestic fundamentals are in a weak - recovery state, and the index is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous week's treasury bonds fluctuated, and the market lacked trading hotspots. The 10 - month economic and financial data were mostly disappointing, but the market reaction was limited. It is recommended to hold mid - term long positions [7][8]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The last trading day of the EC2602 contract is confirmed. The market is affected by both macro and industry fundamentals, with multiple long and short factors [9][10]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Last week, the prices of precious metals rose and then fell. The long - term factors support the upward movement, but the short - term adjustment may continue [15][17]. - **Copper**: The domestic and international copper prices had different performances last week. The macro - environment is mixed, and the fundamental de - stocking limits the price increase [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The price and position of Shanghai aluminum reached a high this week, and then some long positions left. The overseas supply is expected to tighten, but the downstream demand is weak. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of aluminum [21][22][23]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price adjusted at a high level. The smelting end may reduce production in November, and the inventory has the possibility of de - stocking. It is expected to show a relatively strong and fluctuating trend [24]. - **Tin**: The tin price adjusted intraday. The supply is weak compared to demand in the short - term, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the polysilicon industry is in a state of production reduction and inventory accumulation. They are expected to show wide - range fluctuations [25][28]. - **Lead**: The lead price adjusted slightly. The supply was tight in October, and it is gradually returning to balance. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the steel products fluctuated, and the bottom support was strong. The supply and demand of rebar are improving marginally, while the hot - rolled coil has high inventory pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [30][31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand are both weak in the short - term, and the inventory is accumulating, but there is a structural shortage. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low prices [34][36]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The recent price increase of coking coal and thermal coal has led to a wait - and - see attitude in the market. The demand for coking coal is seasonally weak, but the long - term supply may be restricted, and it is recommended to consider long positions at appropriate price ranges [37][38]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The steel mill profitability is declining, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease. The inventory is at a high level, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [39]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous week's oil price showed an N - shaped fluctuation and moved down. The current supply is loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with key attention on geopolitical and risk - aversion factors [41][43][44]. - **LPG**: It is expected to show a relatively strong and fluctuating trend, with a high valuation and a neutral - to - positive fundamental situation [45][46]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the PTA has many maintenance plans in November. The PX - TA is expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, but the PTA surplus restricts the processing fee [47][50]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply side has many unexpected events, and the demand side is relatively stable. The long - term supply - demand surplus remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices [52][53]. - **Urea**: The daily production is expected to remain high in November, but the export policy alleviates the pressure. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [54][55]. - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand situation improves, but the long - term demand growth is limited. The PP1 - 5 positive spread is supported [57][58]. - **PE**: It shows a bottom - up trend, but the long - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the upward space is limited [59][61]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: They rebounded at a low level, but the fundamental surplus situation remains, and the rebound height is limited [62][63]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be at a low - level consolidation with upward drivers [65][66]. - **Asphalt**: The price fell last week, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the winter storage situation [67][69]. - **Rubber & 20 - Grade Rubber**: The supply and demand are affected by weather, downstream demand, and inventory. The price may face pressure during the upward process [69][70]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, & Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are weak. Soda ash is cost - priced, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda has a weak supply - demand pattern in the long - term [71][72][73]. - **Pulp & Offset Paper**: They are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations with a slightly downward - shifted center, affected by factors such as spot prices, port inventory, and macro - environment [74][75]. - **Logs**: The price and inventory data are provided. It is recommended to consider long - term strategies such as 01 - 03 reverse spreads [76]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to fluctuate, with the supply side being the main source of price fluctuations [78]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The near - term pressure is large, and the far - term supply may be affected by policies. It is recommended to wait and see and participate in reverse spreads appropriately [81][83]. - **Oilseeds**: The USDA report's bullish effect was less than expected. The domestic soybean meal shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [84][85][86]. - **Oils**: The USDA report was disappointing, and the oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the upward opportunities of the far - month 05 contract [87][88]. - **Soybeans**: The bullish trend continues with strong capital buying willingness, and the supply structure has changed [89][90]. - **Corn & Starch**: The prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom, with limited one - way upward movement. The corn supply has converged, and the starch is supported by the raw material price [91][92]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton production is expected to increase, and the domestic supply pressure is increasing. The price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, but the downstream demand has some resilience [93][94]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar market information is provided. Attention should be paid to the performance around 5500 [95][96]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and it is recommended to participate in long positions lightly if betting on a rebound [97]. - **Apples**: The recent trend remains strong [98][99]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season production is still uncertain. The price may have limited downward space during the purchase season, and attention should be paid to the commodity rate and purchase situation [100][101].

Bigger mind, Bigger fortune 智慧创造财富 2025 年 11 月 15 号 型花園借期货 周度观点:维持年内对债市的积极判断,配置盘来说建议直接忽略短期波动持 仓观望。 本周央行发布三季度货币政策执行报告,数据上有10月金融信贷和经济数据落 地,二者理论上对债券市场都偏利好（具体内容见云文档）。而A股市场"红利 &科技"高低切延续,海外方面Al泡沫讨论引发的对风险资产的担忧仍在持 续,而本周多位美联储票委先后表达出12月FOMC利率按兵不动的倾向也导致 市场对于降息的预期再生反复,而以上都是典型的"risk off"叙事。唯一让市 场感到乐观的可能是联邦政府终于结束停摆,财政资金回流市场将很好的改善 美元流动性。综上来看,债市短期内并没有转空的理由 -- 尽管后半周多头持 仓体感可能偏弱,但更多可能是因为市场对于基本面数据的忽视并没有满足投 资者对"多头环境"的预期。但从实际层面来说,不论从市场逻辑还是盘面的 张跌幅度都不算空。 策略关注:我们维持年内对债市的积极判断。但需要具体说明的是,年内双降 落地属于超预期利好,更现实的预期是流动性投放的加码以及更加积极的政策 指引。对于配置 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic oil inventory is at a high level, the downstream market is relatively dull, and the short - term strategy is to treat it as a weak oscillation, waiting for further news guidance. The spreads between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils may continue to converge [4] Summary by Related Content Price Range Forecast - The price range of soybean oil in the next month is predicted to be between 8,000 and 8,500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.4% [2] - The price range of rapeseed oil in the next month is predicted to be between 9,300 and 10,300 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1% [2] - The price range of palm oil in the next month is predicted to be between 8,400 and 9,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 24.1% [2] Hedging Strategies - For traders with high oil inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 8,400 - 8,500 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - For refineries with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 8,000 - 8,100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean oil sales prices, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 8,300 - 8,400 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] Core Contradictions - The fundamental situation of palm oil producing areas is weak. In Malaysia, the export speed has slowed down, the production in October reached the highest level in the same period over the years, and the inventory pressure has further increased. In Indonesia, the B50 plan has strong uncertainties, and there is an overall increasing production trend this year. After the Indian Diwali, the global demand for palm oil has weakened, and the origin quotations are mainly in a weak oscillation [3] - The US energy policy lacks clear guidance, and the uncertainty of the final time delay has increased. Attention should be paid to whether Trump will reduce support for the energy policy after China resumes purchasing US soybeans. Sino - US relations are currently improving, diluting the supply gap of oilseeds, but the improved demand and rising prices of US soybeans support the cost of soybean oil [3] - Sino - Canadian relations have not eased. Although Australian rapeseeds will arrive at ports in November, the quantity is not large, and the near - month supply is still supported by tight sentiment [3] Bullish Factors - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 will be 19.5 million tons, down from 19.86 million tons in 2025, but the export volume is expected to rise [5] - An Indonesian agricultural official said that due to the implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy, Indonesia's palm oil exports in 2026 may decline by 11% - 12%. The policy is planned to be launched in the second half of next year [5] - According to SPPOMA data, from November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 2.16% month - on - month [5] Bearish Factors - Trade agency data shows that India's palm oil imports in October were 602,381 tons, down from 833,017 tons in September. The palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season were 7.58 million tons, lower than 9.01 million tons in the same period last year [7] - Malaysian trade and industry officials said that Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 3.4% year - on - year, reaching a record 20 million tons [8] Price Quotes - Palm oil futures: Palm oil 01 is at 8,644 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.23%; Palm oil 05 is at 8,760 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.06%; Palm oil 09 is at 8,624 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76%; BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,103 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.53% [8] - Soybean oil futures: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,256 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.68%; Soybean oil 05 is at 8,028 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%; Soybean oil 09 is at 7,942 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.17%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 50.21 cents/pound with a decline of 0.71% [13] - Rapeseed oil futures: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9,975 yuan/ton with an increase of 135; Rapeseed oil 05 is at 9,484 yuan/ton with an increase of 94; Rapeseed oil 09 is at 9,396 yuan/ton with an increase of 84; ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 649.8 Canadian dollars/ton with a decline of 1.1 [17]

南华人民币汇率热点 —— 美国政府结束停摆，后续"戏码"如何上演？ 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 联系邮件：zhouji@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月14日 主要观点 2025年11月12日，美国国会众议院表决通过参议院此前已通过的联邦政府临时拨款法案，美国总统特朗普签 署了该法案，标志着持续43天、创下美国历史纪录的政府停摆正式落幕。然而，这份仅覆盖3项年度拨款、支 撑政府运转至2026年1月30日的临时法案，并非危机的终点——9项未敲定的年度预算、悬而未决的政策分 歧，仍将美国政府推向"未完待续"的财政博弈中，其对经济、市场与政策的影响也将持续发酵。 本次美国政府停摆始于2025年10月1日，其根本原因在于国会两党在财政支出上的巨大分歧——在年度 预算拨款问题上陷入了严重的政治僵局。根据美国政治惯例，国会每年需通过12项独立的拨款法案，为联邦 政府下一财年的各项开支提供法律依据。然而，在本次事件中，民主党和共和党在关键政策议题上，特别是 与《平价医疗法案》（Affordable Care Act, ACA）（奥巴马医改）相关的税收抵免政 ...

股指期货日报 2025年11月14日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 重要资讯 1. 央行最新金融统计数据显示，前十个月我国社会融资规模增量累计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多增3.83万 亿元。10月末，社融存量同比增8.5%，M2同比增8.2%，环比均下降0.2个百分点。 2. 美联储官员在公布重磅经济数据前放鹰：今年 FOMC 会议票委、圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆表示，鉴于通 胀率高于目标水平，联储官员应谨慎行事。 3. 国家统计局：2025年10月份规模以上工业增加值增长4.9% 4. 国家统计局：2025年10月份社会消费品零售总额增长2.9% 5. 国家统计局：1—10月份全国固定资产投资（不含农户）408914亿元，同比下降1.7% 国内基本面偏弱，亚太市场普跌，股指承压下行 6. 国家统计局：2025年1-10月份，全国房地产开发投资73563亿元，同比下降14.7% 市场回顾 核心观点 今日股指偏弱运行，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌1.57%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落838.83亿元。期 指均放量下跌。 source： wind, ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations. In the short - term, the bond market is likely to remain in a volatile pattern. Given the weakening fundamentals, short - term investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks, and medium - term long positions should be held [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Market Conditions - On Friday, Treasury bond futures opened higher but then declined in the morning, fluctuated narrowly in the afternoon, and rebounded at the end of the session. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.37%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 21.28 billion yuan, with a net injection of 7.11 billion yuan [1]. 2. Important Information - From January to October 2025, China's urban fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year [2]. - Central Bank Deputy Governor Tao Ling stated that the "involution - style competition" in the financial industry should be restricted to maintain a reasonable profit margin [2]. 3. Market Analysis - The decline of the A - share market in the afternoon may have contributed to the rebound of Treasury bond futures at the end of the session. Most of the economic data released on the day for October were below expectations, with the decline in investment growth deepening and the slowdown of industrial production growth. Only consumption was slightly better than expected [3]. - The social financing data released the previous day showed insufficient financing demand from residents and enterprises. Coupled with the peak of government bond issuance having passed, the year - on - year social financing decreased significantly [3]. 4. Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 14 Price | 2025 - 11 - 13 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 11 - 14 Position | 2025 - 11 - 13 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.446 | 102.462 | - 0.016 | 80,625 | 84,143 | - 3,518 | | TF2512 | 105.85 | 105.88 | - 0.03 | 159,434 | 163,467 | - 4,033 | | T2512 | 108.39 | 108.415 | - 0.025 | 281,658 | 283,711 | - 2,053 | | TL2512 | 116.07 | 116.13 | - 0.06 | 179,301 | 178,373 | 928 | | TS (CTD) Basis | - 0.0135 | - 0.0174 | 0.0039 | 35,578 | 19,118 | 16,460 | | TF (CTD) Basis | 0.0144 | - 0.0357 | 0.0501 | 52,534 | 58,282 | - 5,748 | | T (CTD) Basis | 0.1071 | 0.0891 | 0.018 | 63,609 | 70,905 | - 7,296 | | TL (CTD) Basis | 0.1865 | 0.1992 | - 0.0127 | 80,779 | 81,516 | - 737 | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Paper pulp and offset paper futures prices are expected to maintain a slightly oscillating trend in the short term, with the price center slightly shifting downward [3]. - For paper pulp, the futures strategy is to short at high levels in the short term and continue to focus on the 12 - 01 reverse spread, while the options strategy is to wait and see [10]. - For offset paper, the futures strategy is to short at high levels in the short term, and the options strategy is to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for paper pulp is 4750 - 5600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.62%. For offset printing paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 9.72% and a historical percentile of 50.00% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When the inventory of finished products (softwood pulp/offset paper) is high and there are concerns about price drops, recommend shorting paper pulp/offset paper futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. Also, sell call options to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises unexpectedly [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the inventory of paper - making enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, recommend buying paper pulp/offset paper futures to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price first dropped significantly and then rebounded. The spot price fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, the US government shutdown had a negative macro - impact, and port inventory increased by 10.2 tons. However, the shutdown of some pulp mills provided some support [3]. - **Offset Paper**: The offset paper futures price declined due to the price reaching a high and then correcting, and the lack of fundamental support for the previous price increase, along with insufficient market confidence [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some pulp mills have shut down, and tariffs on the US remain unchanged [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Macro - sentiment has weakened, port inventory is high and difficult to reduce, and paper pulp spot prices have generally fallen [11]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Price and Spread**: On November 14, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of paper pulp (SP) and offset printing paper (OP) futures and their spreads are provided, showing daily and weekly fluctuations [14]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: The spot prices and regional spreads of paper pulp and double - offset paper on November 13 and 14, 2025, respectively, are presented, with some prices remaining unchanged and showing certain regional differences [15]. Basis Data - **Paper Pulp Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of paper pulp on November 12, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, are shown for different varieties and contracts [7]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of offset paper on November 14, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, are provided for different contracts [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Futures** - The RMB strengthened significantly against the US dollar due to multiple internal and external factors, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to "oscillate and build a bottom with a slowly declining bottom" [2] - Short - term stock indices may be under pressure, but with policy support, they are expected to oscillate [3][5] - Treasury bond mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term positions can be bought on dips [6] - **Commodities** - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to - long term, the price of precious metals will continue to rise, and short - term corrections are opportunities to add long positions [8][10] - **Copper**: The external copper price pulled back after rising, and the Shanghai copper is likely to follow. The price will oscillate between expectations and reality in the short term [10][12] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is in high - level oscillation; alumina is weakly running; cast aluminum alloy is in high - level oscillation [13][14] - **Zinc**: It is in high - level oscillation with strong support below [14] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They continue to oscillate, waiting for clear signals, and the downside space is greater than the upside space [15][16] - **Tin**: It is running strongly, and short - term chasing is not recommended [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is prone to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a view of oscillating strongly, but callback risks should be watched out for [18] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to oscillate widely due to weak fundamentals [19][20] - **Lead**: It is in strong - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to lower entry opportunities [21] - **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate within a range, with rebar in the 2900 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil in the 3100 - 3400 range [22][23] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is in oscillatory operation with no significant driving force [24] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure, but the medium - to - long - term coal coke is suitable for long - allocation [25][26] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and cost support [26] - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: It will oscillate in the 60 - 65 range in the short - to - medium term, with room for further decline [28][30] - **LPG**: It is in strong - level oscillation, with a neutral - to - good fundamental situation but high valuation [30][31] - **PTA - PX**: They are expected to oscillate strongly following the cost side in the short term, but the PTA over - supply expectation is difficult to change [32][35] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The short - term EG rebounds at a low level, but the long - term valuation is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [36][38] - **PP**: It will oscillate at the bottom with limited downward space [39][41] - **PE**: It will rebound at the bottom, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change, and the upward driving force is insufficient [42][44] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term disk follows pure benzene to strengthen, but the benzene - ethylene destocking pressure is large [44][45] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur cracking has an upward driving force [45][48] - **Asphalt**: It is weakly viewed in the short term, but pay attention to the trading rhythm [49][50] - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: They are expected to slowly rise in oscillation, with the expected strength pattern of RU>NR>BR [51][52] - **Urea**: The short - term market is stable and strong, but the high - supply pressure exists [52][53] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash**: The price is restricted by high inventory, but there is cost support below [53][54] - **Glass**: The 01 contract may decline towards the end, but there is cost support in the long term [55] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot is weak, and the long - term production pressure continues [56] - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp is expected to oscillate in the short term, and offset paper is expected to stabilize weakly [57][58] - **Log**: The grid strategy and option double - selling can continue to be configured [58] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: In China, the consumer price index has rebounded marginally, and boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction. In the US, the government shutdown has ended, and attention should be paid to the release of economic data and the Fed's decision - making [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB strengthened against the US dollar due to multiple factors. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [2] - **Stock Index**: The short - term stock index may be under pressure due to weak credit and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts, but it is expected to oscillate with policy support [3][5] - **Treasury Bond**: The short - term bond market is in narrow - range oscillation. In the context of weak economic fundamentals, long positions can be held [5][6] Commodities - **Precious Metals** - **Gold and Silver**: The price pulled back after rising. The 12 - month rate - cut expectation is uncertain. In the medium - to - long term, the price will continue to rise [8][9][10] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The external copper price pulled back after rising. The Shanghai copper is likely to follow, and the price will oscillate between expectations and reality in the short term [10][11][12] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is affected by funds and industry fundamentals; alumina is in an oversupply situation; cast aluminum alloy follows aluminum [13][14] - **Zinc**: It is in high - level oscillation, with the smelting end having a willingness to cut production in November, and the bottom support is strong [14] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They continue to oscillate, with cost support weakening and limited upward momentum [15][16] - **Tin**: It is running strongly, and short - term chasing is not recommended due to supply shortages [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is in a situation of increased production and inventory reduction, with good demand, and is expected to oscillate strongly [17][18] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They have weak demand, and the market is expected to oscillate widely [19][20] - **Lead**: It is in strong - level oscillation. After the supply problem is gradually solved, it will slowly return to balance [21] - **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a macro vacuum period, and the core contradiction returns to the fundamentals. Rebar's supply - demand balance improves marginally, while hot - rolled coil has high inventory [22][23] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is in oscillatory operation, and the port inventory is in a cumulative trend [23][24] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term price may face adjustment pressure, but the medium - to - long - term coal coke is suitable for long - allocation [24][25][26] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are in a situation of high inventory and weak demand, and are expected to oscillate [26] - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory has increased more than expected, and it will oscillate in the 60 - 65 range in the short - to - medium term [28][29][30] - **LPG**: It is in strong - level oscillation, with a neutral - to - good fundamental situation but high valuation [30][31] - **PTA - PX**: The short - term supply - demand is strong, but the PTA over - supply expectation is difficult to change [32][35] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The short - term EG rebounds at a low level, but the long - term valuation is under pressure [36][38] - **PP**: It will oscillate at the bottom, with supply pressure and improved demand during the "Double Eleven" [39][40][41] - **PE**: It will rebound at the bottom, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change [42][44] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term disk follows pure benzene to strengthen, but the benzene - ethylene destocking pressure is large [44][45] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur cracking has an upward driving force [45][48] - **Asphalt**: It is weakly viewed in the short term, with a loose supply - demand pattern and cost - side influence [49][50] - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: They are expected to slowly rise in oscillation, with the expected strength pattern of RU>NR>BR [51][52] - **Urea**: The short - term market is stable and strong due to export quota increase, but high - supply pressure exists [52][53] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash**: The price is restricted by high inventory, but there is cost support below [53][54] - **Glass**: The 01 contract may decline towards the end, but there is cost support in the long term [55] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot is weak, and the long - term production pressure continues [56] - **Pulp and Offset Paper** - **Pulp**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with multiple long and short factors intertwined [57] - **Offset Paper**: The futures price is expected to weaken and stabilize [58] - **Log**: The grid strategy and option double - selling can continue to be configured [58]

南华贵金属日报： 黄金&白银：降息预期摇摆不定 贵金属冲高回落 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月14日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属价格冲高后回落调整。美政府停摆暂时缓解后，贵金属进入阶段性获利了结阶段，同时美联储官 员释放对12月FOMC鹰派言论，加剧贵金属与金融市场调整。消息面，美国众议院通过临时拨款法案，联邦 政府关门结束，特朗普首席经济顾问哈塞特表示，10月将获得一半的就业报告，没有失业率数据，估计政府 关门造成6万人失业。美联储官员密集发声，整体传递出对降息路径的谨慎甚至偏鹰派立场，12月降息预期已 下降至5成：今年票委穆萨莱姆强调，面对不确定性，政策制定需保持谨慎，避免激进调整；明年票委哈玛克 主张，当前利率水平已具限制性，建议"按兵不动"，观察经济反应；明年票委卡什卡利明确表态，不支持 上月末的降息决定，认为12月是否行动应完全取决于即将公布的数据；后年票委戴利指出，现在就判断12月 是否降息"为时过早"，需等待更多证据验证经济走势。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报4174.5美元/盎 司，-0.93%；美白银2512合约 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to gradually peak, and the pressure on the supply side will gradually ease marginally. The industry is still in a stage of wide - range weak oscillation, and there is no significant driving force at present [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term trading main line of the polysilicon market revolves around whether the November storage platform will be established, and then will gradually shift to the expectation game of "November concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation". The overall risk level is relatively high [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, the low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China during the wet season is about to end, and the furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of inventory accumulation will be alleviated. On the demand side, the demand from the organic silicon industry is limited, the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy field is stable, and the demand from polysilicon enterprises is expected to decrease [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: The "anti - involution" policy releases a positive signal, and the short - term downward space of the cost side is limited, with a relatively low profit valuation [4][5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The output of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises has declined, weakening the demand side [5]. - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 9145 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.54% and a weekly increase of 0.88%. The trading volume and open interest have increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have shown little daily change, with some slight weekly increases. The prices of downstream products such as trichlorosilane and polysilicon N - type price index have also shown little change [16]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 45387 lots, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous day. The warehouse receipt inventories in various delivery warehouses have also changed to varying degrees [27]. Polysilicon - **Core Logic**: The core factors affecting the polysilicon futures price are whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation in November, whether the winning bid price of demand - side components can rise stably, and whether the photovoltaic competitive - bidding on - grid electricity price can increase. The current market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand" [7]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: The industry may introduce a production capacity integration and clearance plan, which is expected to improve the industrial pattern if implemented [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: If the production capacity integration and clearance plan fails to be implemented, inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [8]. - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 54195 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.37% and a weekly increase of 1.50%. The trading volume of the main contract has decreased, while the open interest has increased [28]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of different types of polysilicon and related products in the photovoltaic industry chain have shown little daily change, with some slight weekly decreases [41][43]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data**: The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 2235 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 49.00% and a weekly increase of 60.22%. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9130 lots, a decrease of 720 lots from the previous day [53]. Silicon Industry Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - **Selling Industrial Silicon**: To prevent price decline and profit reduction, enterprises can sell corresponding futures contracts according to the production plan (hedging ratio: 40%) or buy put options and sell call options (hedging ratio: 20%) [2]. - **Purchasing Industrial Silicon**: When the finished product price has no correlation, to prevent cost increase, enterprises can buy corresponding futures contracts (hedging ratio: 20%) or sell put options (hedging ratio: 10%); when the finished product price is correlated, to prevent inventory impairment, enterprises can sell the main futures contract according to the procurement progress (hedging ratio: 40%) or buy put options and sell call options (hedging ratio: 40%) [2]. - **Inventory Management**: To prevent inventory depreciation, enterprises can sell the main futures contract (hedging ratio: 40%) or sell call options (hedging ratio: 10%) [2].