苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5600-6200 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7400 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/9/1 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2510 | 卖出 | 25% | 7150-720 0 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View The subsequent stock index trend is expected to remain generally strong but with increased volatility. On one hand, under the optimistic sentiment, the current upward trend of the stock index is mainly driven by loose domestic and foreign liquidity. After the Fed's interest rate cut is implemented, the expectation of the interest rate cut path may cause short - term marginal fluctuations in liquidity. If the Fed slows down the interest rate cut rhythm due to strong US inflation and employment, overseas liquidity will tighten marginally, and the stock index may face a phased adjustment. If US inflation and employment are weak, the expectation of interest rate cuts will heat up, overseas liquidity will loosen marginally, further boosting the stock index. If one is strong and the other is weak, the stock index trend may be volatile under the repeated influence of interest rate cut expectations. On the other hand, the intensification of domestic service consumption policies and the existence of valuation repair space will provide strong support for the market, forming a bottom - support for A - shares, and the downside space is small. Therefore, if there is an adjustment, the amplitude will not be large [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Multiple Benefits and the Market Rally In August, the CSI 300 index increased by 3.54%. In August, the A - share market showed a certain upward trend. The closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index on August 30 was 5427, with a slight increase of 0.02% compared to the previous trading day, and a cumulative increase of 2.45% in August [11]. 3.2 September: Stability at Home, Changes Abroad - **3.2.1 September Fed Interest Rate Cut Almost Certain, Focus on Marginal Changes in Liquidity** The CME data shows that as of August, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September is 87.5%. The PCE in July 2024 was 2.9%. The Fed's interest rate cut situation will have an impact on the A - share market through liquidity [12]. - **3.2.2 Domestic Policy Expectations Continue to Provide Bottom - Support** In August, the cumulative increase of the CSI 300 index was 20% lower than that of the Consumption 100 index. From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic catering revenue was 4.9%, and in June it was 3.8%. Domestic policies are expected to continue to support the A - share market [14]. - **3.2.3 There is Still a Large Space for Valuation Repair** The valuation of the CSI 300 index has a large repair space, with a historical percentile of 60 - 66%. From August 1 to 29, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 index increased from 13.11 to 14.12, an increase of 7.7%. Compared with historical high - points such as 45.2 in 2007, 19 in 2015, and 16.5 in 2021, there is still room for improvement. In August, the TTM of the A - share market also showed certain changes, with the TTM of the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 18.95%, the TTM of the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 4.41%, and the TTM of the ChiNext Index increasing by 15.25%. The DR007 central value continued to decline in August, which is conducive to market liquidity [18][21]. 3.3 Market Outlook In August, the trading sentiment was hot. The PCR (Put - Call Ratio) of some index futures was at a relatively high level, such as the PCR of IM and IH reaching 95%, and the MO PCR reaching 90% in August [24].

摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数下跌-0.03%。板块指数中，涨幅最大的板块是南华贵金属 指数，上涨2.77%，涨幅最小的板块是南华农产品指数，涨幅为0.08%，跌幅最大的板块是南华黑色指数，跌幅 为-1.9%，跌幅最小的板块是南华有色金属指数，跌幅为-0.06%。 主题指数中，只有油脂油料指数，上涨0.17%， 其余主题指数均是下跌，跌幅最大的主题指数是黑色原材料指数，跌幅为-2.53%，跌幅最小的主题指数是煤制化工 指数，跌幅为-0.07%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是白银，上涨 股票代码 603093 > 南华期货 南华商品指数日报 2025年9月1日 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【 2011 】1290号 南华商品指数市场数据 T 年代 8月24日 点數 Points 日輕 年化收益率 ABB 指数名称 综合指数 NHCl 资金属指数 NHPMI 工业品指数 NHII 252131 12731 1273 01 3614 48 - 0.778 35.30 -23.17 -0.03% 4.17% 33.89% 0.31 2.08 2.08 -0.22 2.77% -0.6 ...

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic supply-demand situation of urea remains weak. Towards the weekend, due to the positive expectations of demand after the military parade and the Indian tender, the low-price transactions in some regions improved significantly, and upstream quotes were tentatively raised. The new round of Indian urea tender on September 2nd is generally considered bullish, and attention should be paid to the 15 reverse spread opportunity. In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side to some extent. Although factory inventory and pending orders pressure increase, with the opening of the export channel, there may be a phased rebound. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [4]. - Urea exports have been confirmed. In a market with strong speculative sentiment, urea futures are mainly priced speculatively, so they are expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with stronger downside support [4]. - Domestic policies suppress the market. The association requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on spot sentiment [4]. 2. Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Urea | 1650 - 1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | Methanol | 2250 - 2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3. Urea Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - **Scenario**: High finished - product inventory, worried about urea price decline. - **Strategy 1**: Short urea futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to inventory. Sell UR2601 and buy UR2601P1850, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 1800 - 1950. - **Strategy 2**: Buy put options to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs. Sell UR2601C1950, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 45 - 60 [3]. Procurement Management - **Scenario**: Low procurement of regular inventory, hope to purchase according to orders. - **Strategy 1**: Buy urea futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. Buy UR2601, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 1650 - 1750. - **Strategy 2**: Sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the urea price drops, the purchase price of spot urea can be locked. Sell UR2601P1650, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [3].

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年09月01日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 强压力位：90000 | 42.2% | 73.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存 | 为防止库存减值，可以根据库存情况，做空碳酸锂 期货来锁定成品利润 | LC2511 | 卖出 | 60% | | 管理 | 有减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 40% | | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened higher, moved up, and then fluctuated. By the close, the prices of all EC contracts had rebounded. The ruling by the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal brought positive macro - sentiment, leading to a recovery in futures prices. However, the current container shipping market is in the off - season, with relatively insufficient demand support, and the spot cabin quotes on the European line are still on a downward trend. For the future, it is more likely that EC will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the risk of some contracts falling from high levels [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents EC Risk Management Strategy Advice - For those with existing cabin positions but full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to lock in profits [1]. - For those who want to book cabins according to order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or the approaching peak season, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1150 - 1250 to determine booking costs in advance [1]. Market Data - **EC Contract Positions and Trading Volume**: In the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 433 to 27,805, short positions increased by 583 to 30,516, and trading volume increased by 4,936 to 32,358 (bilateral) [1]. - **EC Basis Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 482.20, down 30.40 from the previous day and 150.00 from the previous week; other contracts also showed different degrees of decline [4]. - **EC Prices and Spreads**: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1291.4, up 2.41% from the previous day and down 4.90% from the previous week; different contract spreads also changed [4]. - **Global Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route decreased by 10.88% to 1773.6; the SCFIS US - West route decreased by 5.87% to 1041.38; the SCFI European route decreased by 11.21% to 1481; the SCFI US - West route increased by 16.97% to 1923; other indices also had corresponding changes [8]. Shipping Company Quotes - **Maersk**: On September 11, the total quote for 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $1165, up $5 from the previous period; the total quote for 40GP was $1950, up $10 from the previous period [6]. - **MSC**: In early September, the total quote for 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $1280, down $126 from the previous period; the total quote for 40GP was $2140, down $212 from the previous period [6]. - **Herbert**: In early September, the average total quote for 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $1185, down $75 from the previous period; the average total quote for 40GP was $1935, down $150 from the previous period [7]. - **ONE**: In early September, the total quote for 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $2004, up $330 from the previous week; the total quote for 40GP was $2643, up $500 from the previous week [7]. Port and Ship - related Data - **Global Major Port Waiting Times**: On August 31, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.439 days, down 0.012 from the previous day; Shanghai Port was 1.340 days, down 0.341; other ports also had corresponding changes [15]. - **Ship Speeds and Waiting Ships in Suez Canal**: On August 31, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.826 knots, down 0.044 from the previous day; the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor was 17, down 2 from the previous day [23]. Market News - **Positive News**: The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal, which brought positive macro - sentiment [1][2]. - **Negative News**: Some shipping schedules of Mediterranean Shipping and Herbert on the European line in early September continued to lower their quotes, and the SCFIS European route accelerated its decline [3].

镍&不锈钢：受印尼暴乱罢工情绪影响上行 9月1日风险管理日报 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 不锈钢区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.25-1.31 | 9.27% | 1.8% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 沪镍风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下 跌，库存有减值 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现 货下跌风险 | NI主 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 1, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2200 - 2500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [3] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [3] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] Group 3: Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about methanol price decline. Strategy: Short methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in profits, with a 25% hedging ratio and recommended entry interval of 2250 - 2350; buy put options (MA2601P2250) to prevent price drops, with a 50% hedging ratio; sell call options (MA2601C2350) to reduce capital costs, with a 45 - 60% hedging ratio [3] Procurement Management - Situation: Low procurement standing inventory, want to purchase according to order situation. Strategy: Buy methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in procurement costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and recommended entry interval of 2450 - 2550; sell put options (MA2601P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a 75% hedging ratio [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Methanol 9 - 1, 1 - 5 continuous reverse - spread logic, main contradiction lies in port pressure and high shipments from Iran. As of now, Iran's August shipments are around 1.04 million tons, breaking historical highs, causing methanol 1 - 5 to decline. The 01 contract will face port pressure, while the 05 contract may be more affected by Iran's shutdown. Suggest to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options, and follow up on Iran's shipments and port pick - ups [4] Group 5: Negative Factors - This week, it is expected that the arrival of foreign vessels at ports will be scattered and the arrival volume will be sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol's recent fundamental drivers are limited. It was relatively resistant to price drops due to low inventory, but with the cooling of the chemical sector sentiment and lack of policy support, it has seen a compensatory decline. However, considering its low inventory, low valuation, and inelastic supply, it is expected to remain in an upward - biased trend. In the short - term, it oscillates in the 4350 - 4550 range, mainly following the cost side and commodity sentiment. It is recommended to buy on dips within the range. In the long - term, the performance of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be combined with selling out - of - the - money near - month call options for covered operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Price Range Forecast - Ethylene glycol price range (monthly) is 4300 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4%. - PX price range (monthly) is 6500 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.78% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.7%. - PTA price range (monthly) is 4400 - 5300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 4.6%. - Bottle chip price range (monthly) is 5800 - 6500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.92% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.9% [2]. 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategy **Inventory Management**: - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about ethylene glycol price drops, sell EG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 4500 - 4600 range to lock in profits. - Buy EG2510P4400 put options and sell EG2510C4500 call options with a 50% hedging ratio in the 20 - 30 range to prevent large price drops and reduce capital costs [2]. **Procurement Management**: - For low procurement inventory and the need to lock in procurement costs, buy EG2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio in the 4350 - 4400 range. - Sell EG2510P4350 put options with a 75% hedging ratio in the 18 - 30 range to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3.3利多解读 - This week's planned arrivals are 11.01 tons, relatively low. Next Monday, port inventory is expected to decrease by about 1.5 tons, tightening spot liquidity. - Houthi attacks on Red Sea cruise ships led to an afternoon increase in oil prices, but the cost - side support was limited, and EG rebounded slightly before falling again [5]. 3.4利空解读 - Weaving terminal demand has shown a phased decline, with limited new orders. High temperatures in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have led to a slight decrease in loom operation rates. - Due to poor production efficiency and order intake, bottle chip factories have cancelled production increase plans, limiting polyester's production increase in September [6]. 3.5 Polyester Daily Data - Includes price data (such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, etc.), price differences (such as TA1 - 5 month spread, EG1 - 5 month spread), and processing fees (such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread) for different time points (2025 - 09 - 01, 2025 - 08 - 29, 2025 - 08 - 25) and their daily and weekly changes [8][9].

股指日报 重要资讯 1、因美国劳动节假期 9月1日美股休市一日。 股指期货日报 2025年9月1日 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 多头仍占据上风 2、9月1日起，《人工智能生成合成内容标识办法》正式施行，所有AI生成的文字、图片、视频等内容都 要"亮明身份"。8月31日，"微信珊瑚安全"发布《关于进一步规范人工智能生成合成内容标识的公告》 称，为避免发布的内容在传播过程中引起混淆或误认，用户发布的内容为AI生成合成的，发布时需主动进行 声明。 市场回顾 今日股指缩量上涨，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.60%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落483.37亿元。期 指方面，各品种均缩量上涨。 source： wind,南华研究 核心观点 今日股市先经历小幅回调，之后震荡上行，多头仍占据上风。受阿里巴巴业绩大增影响，相关概念以通信为 代表领涨A股，除此之外，受美联储独立性、地缘局势等多重因素影响，贵金属板块走势强势，医药延续上周 强势，领涨行业均存在相关利好拉动，近期相对持续时间较长的交易龙头主要聚焦在科技相关概念。短期市 场风险偏好仍较为激进，红利指数自上周二起出现明 ...