铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/11/10 周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石12合约月度价格预测（11月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 770-826 | 20.05% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（11月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2512 | 空 | 25% | 820-830 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2512-C-830 | | 30% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2512 | 多 | 30% | 780-790 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 10, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Xu Chenxi (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0001908) [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis Market Performance - On Monday, bond futures opened lower and then quickly rebounded. T and TL contracts rose during the mid - day session but then declined. Except for TS which slightly fell, other varieties closed higher [1]. - The funding market tightened, with DR001 rising to 1.48%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 11.99 billion yuan, with a net injection of 4.16 billion yuan [1]. Important Information - The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown [2]. Market Outlook - The A - share market rose slightly today with increased trading volume, but the bond market was not significantly affected [3]. - The inflation data for October released over the weekend showed some improvement, which might be the reason for the lower opening of bond futures. However, the sustainability of inflation improvement is questionable, and it does not currently pose a major negative impact. The bond market is generally strong [3]. - This week, attention should be paid to the upcoming release of data such as October social financing, investment, and consumption. The market's overall expectations for these data are not high [3]. - Maintain a mid - term optimistic view on the bond market. Hold mid - term long positions and consider taking profits on short - term long positions as appropriate [3]. Group 3: Data Summary Contract Price and Position Changes | Contract | Price on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Price on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Price Change | Position on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Position on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Position Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | TS2512 | 102.466 | 102.472 | - 0.006 | 85,232 | 83,418 | 1,814 | | TF2512 | 105.93 | 105.92 | 0.01 | 172,702 | 175,280 | - 2,578 | | T2512 | 108.485 | 108.475 | 0.01 | 291,294 | 289,749 | 1,545 | | TL2512 | 116.3 | 116.03 | 0.27 | 184,847 | 180,551 | 4,296 | [6] Basis and Transaction Volume Changes | Contract | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Basis Change | Transaction Volume on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Transaction Volume on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Volume Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | TS | - 0.0267 | - 0.0403 | 0.0136 | 24,929 | 26,289 | - 1,360 | | TF | - 0.025 | - 0.0264 | 0.0014 | 49,109 | 44,485 | 4,624 | | T | 0.0205 | 0.0795 | - 0.059 | 58,830 | 54,915 | 3,915 | | TL | 0.1987 | 0.0885 | 0.1102 | 96,097 | 99,783 | - 3,686 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel mills' profitability has continued to decline, falling below 40% this week. Pig iron production has slightly decreased due to the decline in steel mills' profitability and is expected to continue this downward trend. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline, and the inventory of the five major steel products has increased more than seasonally. Ferroalloys also have high inventory levels, facing significant pressure to reduce inventory. After the macro - sentiment settles, ferroalloys will return to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand, but the price will be supported by the cost side. It is expected that ferroalloys will fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon iron**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.8% [3]. - **Silicon manganese**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.62% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 4.4% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is concern about a decline in ferroalloy prices, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to sell SF2601 and SM2601 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 15%. The suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 and SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and there is a need to purchase according to orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy SF2601 and SM2601 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 25%. The suggested entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300 and SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - **Contradiction between high inventory and weak demand**: Ferroalloy production profits are gradually declining, and the market has low expectations for further production increases. Downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and ferroalloy inventory is at a high level. Both silicon iron and silicon manganese enterprise inventories are at their highest levels in the past 5 years. Silicon manganese enterprise inventory has increased by 1.5% month - on - month, and silicon iron enterprise inventory has increased by 9.3% month - on - month, facing significant inventory pressure [4]. - **Challenge of cost support**: Recently, the correlation between coking coal prices and ferroalloy prices has been gradually weakening. The increase in coking coal prices has not driven up ferroalloy prices [4]. - **Contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality**: The anti - involution tone remains, and the market still has some enthusiasm. There are still certain expectations for supply - side contraction, but the high inventory of ferroalloys and weak downstream demand remain unchanged. The market's long - and short - term logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality, and there is a high risk of a price increase followed by a decline due to the lack of substantial action [4]. 3.4利多 and 利空解读 - **Positive factors**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", which mentions that the capacity replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking in each province (autonomous region, municipality) should be no less than 1.5:1. The fourth round of price increases for coke has started. In October, China exported 828,000 vehicles, and from January to October, the cumulative export was 6.513 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.3%. In October, China exported 443 ships, and from January to October, the cumulative export was 5660 ships, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In the first 10 months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 13.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% [6]. - **Negative factors**: The steel market is in the peak season but with weak performance. The profitability of steel mills has declined significantly, and the negative feedback pressure is gradually increasing. Pig iron production has continued to decline. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production has decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. The consumption side lacks driving force, and the inventory has increased more than seasonally, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Recently, Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates [6]. 3.5 Daily Data - **Silicon iron**: On November 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 26, with a daily increase of 60 and a weekly decrease of 56. The warehouse receipts were 7197, with a daily increase of 1498 and a weekly increase of 2688 [6]. - **Silicon manganese**: On November 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 210, with a daily increase of 38 and a weekly decrease of 28. The warehouse receipts were 16357, with a daily increase of 1999 and a weekly increase of 6337 [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 99 - 101, and the US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate is expected to operate between 7.09 - 7.14. Towards the end of the year, the US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate may show a "shifting bottom in fluctuations" trend [3]. - The stock index is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, focusing on the repair of the domestic fundamentals and overseas liquidity [4]. - For treasury bonds, it is recommended to buy on dips, with mid - term long positions held and empty positions bought in batches on dips [5]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and it is advisable to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips [9]. - Copper prices will continue to seek a balance point, with different fluctuation ranges depending on downstream procurement volume [12]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, alumina to operate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy to fluctuate at a high level [13][14][16]. - Zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly, tin to fluctuate narrowly, and lithium carbonate futures to fluctuate strongly between 77,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [16][17]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely, and lead to fluctuate mainly [19][20]. - Steel products are expected to fluctuate within a range, and iron ore prices are expected to continue a weak trend [23][26]. - Coking coal and coke prices may face short - term adjustments, and ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - Crude oil is in a narrow - range fluctuation, LPG is expected to fluctuate strongly, PX - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, and MEG - bottle chips are difficult to break downward in the short term but are under long - term pressure [30][34][35]. - Methanol 01 is looking for support, PP is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, PE is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate at a low level without upward momentum [38][40][43][44]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is bearish, low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to consolidate at a low level, and urea prices are expected to be stable and strong in the short term [45][46][47]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, the reality is weak but the cost is strong. Paper pulp may fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate [48][53]. - For live pigs, it is waiting for the bottom - building, and for oilseeds, attention should be paid to the release of this week's USDA report [55]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's price index has marginally rebounded. The export growth rate has significantly declined due to base disturbances, and boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: In the previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower. In October, China's foreign trade maintained growth, and the foreign exchange reserve and gold reserve increased [2]. - **Core Viewpoints on Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 99 - 101, and the US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate is expected to operate between 7.09 - 7.14 [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed slightly lower in the previous trading day. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, focusing on the domestic fundamentals and overseas liquidity [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell back after high - level fluctuations last week. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The precious metals market fluctuated narrowly last week. It is in a short - term adjustment phase, and mid - term buying opportunities on dips should be noted [7][9]. - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated last week. Macro factors are bearish, and the price will continue to seek a balance point [9][12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is affected by funds, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy follows aluminum prices [13][14][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fluctuated strongly last week, with a certain upward drive [16]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly, with a stable 290,000 yuan pressure level and high - level consolidation expected [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price strengthened last week. It is expected to fluctuate strongly between 77,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are expected to fluctuate widely, with a weak fundamental situation [18][19]. - **Lead**: Lead prices fluctuated narrowly, and are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term [20]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They fell weakly last week. Steel products are expected to fluctuate within a range, with high de - stocking pressure on coils [21][23]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are under pressure from both macro and fundamental aspects and are expected to continue a weak trend [23][26]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices may face short - term adjustments, and coking coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black metal sector in the medium - to - long term [26]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are expected to fluctuate, with high inventory and weak demand [27]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is in a narrow - range fluctuation, with weak short - term momentum and long - term pressure [30]. - **LPG**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but lacks further upward drive [30]. - **PX - PTA**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, but the PTA oversupply situation is difficult to change [31][34]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are difficult to break downward in the short term but are under long - term pressure [35]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 is looking for support, with port pressure difficult to relieve [38]. - **PP**: It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with high supply and weak demand [39][40]. - **PE**: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a difficult - to - change supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level without upward momentum [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to consolidate at a low level [45][46]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are expected to be stable and strong in the short term, with high supply but supported by export policies [47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The reality is weak but the cost is strong, with different trends for each [48][50]. - **Paper Pulp & Offset Paper**: Paper pulp may fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate [53]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to maintain a weak pattern, with a loose supply situation [54]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: They are waiting for the bottom - building, and the long - term can be bullish, but the medium - and short - term are based on fundamentals [55]. - **Oilseeds**: Attention should be paid to the release of this week's USDA report, with the import of soybeans and the supply and demand of domestic soybean meal having their own characteristics [55].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Newly - harvested soybeans show a collision between a bumper harvest in the Northeast and disasters in the South, with a decline in the proportion of high - protein soybeans. After a price increase in October, the price is stagnant, but the state reserve purchase limits the downside. In the long run, the price center of domestic soybeans may shift upward [1][5] - Near - term trading logic involves price stagnation, reduced enthusiasm for mid - and downstream purchases, and sentiment suppression from potential US soybean imports. Long - term, high - protein soybean prices are expected to remain firm, and the price of domestic soybeans may break out of the bottom - range oscillation [1][3] - The seasonal reversal in October laid the foundation for the new - season listing cycle of domestic soybeans, and in the long term, the price may break through the bottom - range oscillation and the price center may rise significantly [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The co - existence of a bumper harvest in the Northeast and disasters in the South has led to a decrease in the proportion of high - protein soybeans. After the price increase in October, it is currently stagnant. The state reserve purchase limits the price decline, and there is a lack of factors to drive further price increases [1] - The new changes in the domestic soybean market may change the bottom - range oscillation trend. High - protein soybean prices are expected to remain firm, and the consumption progress of medium - and low - protein soybeans will affect the price rhythm [1] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - For the 01 contract, short - term hedging above 4100 should be held, and long - term procurement can wait for a price decline to enter the market [6] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, planting entities can short the A2601 contract above 4100 to lock in profits with a 30% hedging ratio - For procurement management, those worried about price increases can mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [6] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some branches of Sinograin started purchasing new - season domestic soybeans this week, and there was no auction arrangement [7] - **Negative Information**: On November 10, 30,969 tons of domestic soybeans were auctioned, suppressing price increase sentiment. The resumption of US soybean imports is becoming clearer, which will compete with medium - and low - protein domestic soybeans [3][8] 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Whether the rhythm of US soybean imports can be further clarified - Whether selling pressure will emerge after the price stagnation - The release of the latest US Department of Agriculture production and supply - demand report on November 14 - The trading results of the domestic soybean auction on November 10 [10][11] Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - The weekly price of soybeans first fell and then rose, with a slight increase in the weekly line. The trading volume continued to expand, the open interest decreased slightly, and the registered warehouse receipts increased to 10,556 lots [11] - The basis weakened slightly as the spot price stagnated and the futures price rose slightly - The 03 and 05 contracts were weak, the 01 contract was strong, and the overall monthly spread change was not significant [16][19] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the Heilongjiang soybean - producing area, the profit of 39 - protein clean grain has increased significantly compared to last year. Mid - stream trading enterprises have a stronger willingness to stockpile, but the profit of building storage is uncertain. Down - stream demand is more active, and high - protein soybeans are in short supply. The crushing profit has only small changes, resulting in a neutral purchasing attitude of oil mills [27] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - The supply of high - protein soybeans has decreased, and it will gradually tighten in the next 10 months. The supply of medium - and low - protein soybeans has increased. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans at the end of the fourth quarter and the changes in the purchasing intensity of oil mills [31] 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - In November, the edible consumption of domestic soybeans is picking up, mainly for high - protein soybeans. Down - stream enterprises' stocking efforts are expected to continue, supporting the price of high - quality soybeans [32] - The demand for oil - soybeans depends on the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil. Attention should be paid to the arrival quantity in December and the soybean meal price to see if the crushing demand can increase as it did last year [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The market pattern shows signs of being at the end of its strength. Whether it's non-ferrous metals, weak industrial products, or some agricultural and sideline products (such as US soybeans, eggs, and pigs), their fundamental data has been fully traded and priced. Futures prices are based on future dynamic fundamentals rather than long - standing static fundamentals. Two types of varieties can be focused on: those with a continuous divergence structure and those that increase in position, volume during a decline and are resistant to falling [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Condition - After the supplementary decline in the market, some industrial products are at the end of their decline. For example, alumina has low trading volume, small market divergence, and reduced price volatility; glass has large intraday position - increase and decrease amplitudes but limited price fluctuations, indicating strong resistance to decline and tenacious resistance from long - positions. Static fundamental data of these varieties has been poor for a long time and has been fully digested by prices. Using static fundamentals for strategy deduction may yield mediocre results [4]. - Recently, polyolefin varieties have experienced supplementary declines. In the context of weak macro - demand, methanol suppliers will increase production until profits are low or even in the red. Regarding US soybeans, although China's expected purchase of 12 million tons at the end of the year may drive a price rebound, the reality of oversupply remains, limiting the rebound space. A significant and continuous increase in US soybeans requires a reduction in supply, and there is a high risk of chasing up soybean meal prices [4]. Product Recommendation - Abandon market prediction and rely on strategies. The "Zhui Feng 1" and "Zhui Feng 2" consulting products push daily reports, recommend trading varieties, and provide exit rules. They can be subscribed to via the path [Nanhua Futures app - Research Report Selection - Strategy Research Selection], and both products offer free trials [5]. Data Tables - **Hot - variety price change ranking**: A table shows the ranking of price changes of popular varieties, but specific data is not presented [7]. - **Sector fund flow**: The total amount of funds has a net outflow of 2.26 billion. Among sectors, precious metals have an outflow of 396 million, non - ferrous metals 394 million, while black metals have an inflow of 804 million, energy 234 million, chemicals 1.571 billion, feed and breeding 1.052 billion, oils and fats 524 million, and soft commodities 526 million. The corresponding percentage changes are - 6.2%, - 4.9%, - 6.7%, 17.9%, 15.7%, 48.6%, 50.5%, 11.6%, and 31.6% respectively [9]. - **Black and non - ferrous weekly data**: The table provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position - change, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous varieties, such as iron ore, steel rebar, and copper, with data presented in percentile form [9]. - **Energy and chemical weekly data**: Similar to the above, it shows relevant data for energy and chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt [11]. - **Agricultural product weekly data**: It presents data for agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12]. Charts - There are multiple charts showing the capital flow of different varieties and sectors, such as black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, and others, but specific chart content is not described in detail [13][15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall rating of "Weakly Bearish" for the crude oil market [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction in the crude oil market lies in the game between short - term geopolitical risk support and medium - to long - term supply - demand and macro - level bearish factors. The short - term geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Nigeria has not been resolved, but the market has become fatigued with relevant news, and the support is weakening. In the medium - to long - term, the double - bearish pattern of supply and demand remains unchanged, and the market shows a characteristic of "falling with the trend but not rising", with the macro and fundamental factors jointly suppressing the market [1] - The near - term trading logic is dominated by the decline in geopolitical sentiment, the approaching spring maintenance of refineries, and the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. The short - term trend is weakly bearish. The long - term trend is a downward oscillation due to the rigid supply pressure and limited demand growth [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - The short - term geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Nigeria has not been resolved, but the market's reaction to relevant news is weakening. In the medium - to long - term, the double - bearish pattern of supply and demand remains unchanged, and combined with economic concerns caused by the US government shutdown, the market shows a "falling with the trend but not rising" characteristic [1] 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestion - The market is in a weakly bearish oscillation. The strategy suggests to short the market when Brent rebounds to $66 - 68 per barrel, with a stop - loss at $70. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [7] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Bullish Information**: Two US B - 52 bombers approached the Venezuelan coast, and the US and Venezuela have tense relations recently [8] - **Bearish Information**: Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices for Asian markets in December. The production of Kazakhstan's Karachaganak oilfield has increased by about 15% [9][10] 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - On November 10, 2025, at 24:00, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open. As of the ninth working day on November 7, this may provide short - term support for crude oil futures prices [12] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Interpretation - This week, international crude oil prices oscillated slightly downward, falling below the short - term moving average. The previous week, the settlement price of the WTI main contract decreased by 2.02%, and that of the Brent main contract decreased by 2.21%. The INE crude oil futures position increased by 1,689 lots week - on - week, while the Brent crude oil futures position decreased by 65,844 lots week - on - week [14][17] 3.3.2 Internal - External Spread Tracking - As of November 7, the SC - Brent spread was $0.49 per barrel, and the SC - WTI spread was $4.37 per barrel. The SC - Brent spread was weakening, and the internal - market crude oil was relatively weaker under the background of OPEC+ production increase [22][23] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of November 7, the monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and SC all weakened. The recent spreads have given back most of the risk premiums due to fundamental suppression [25] 3.4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of November 7, the SC - Brent spread was $0.49 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was $3.88 per barrel. The spread between SC and Brent has weakened again because the external - market crude oil is more strongly supported by geopolitical risk premiums [30] 3.4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of November 7, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market strengthened comprehensively, while in North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel crack spreads were stronger than gasoline. In the Chinese market, the crack spreads weakened, and refinery profits continued to decline [42] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From October 25 - 31, US crude oil production was 13.651 million barrels per day, up 0.7 million barrels per day week - on - week. From November 1 - 7, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 414, unchanged week - on - week [64] 3.5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From October 25 - 31, US refinery crude oil input was 15.256 million barrels per day, up 3.7 million barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery capacity utilization rate was 86.0%, down 0.6 percentage points week - on - week. From October 31 - November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese independent refineries was 62.49%, up 0.11 percentage points week - on - week, and that of Chinese major refineries was 78.64%, down 1.86 percentage points week - on - week [66] 3.5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 31, US commercial crude oil inventories totaled 421,168 thousand barrels, up 5,202 thousand barrels week - on - week. As of November 5, the Chinese port commercial crude oil inventory index was 106.77, down 1.52% week - on - week [68] 3.5.4 Import - Export Tracking - From October 25 - 31, US crude oil exports were 4.367 million barrels per day, up 0.6 million barrels per day week - on - week. The Middle - East seaborne crude oil exports from October 21 - 27 were 16.7283 million barrels per day, up 1.90% week - on - week, while Russian seaborne crude oil exports this week were 3.3723 million barrels per day, down 12.98% week - on - week [70] 3.5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - The EIA has continued to raise its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC has maintained its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. The IEA has slightly lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026 [74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, zinc prices were driven by LME at the beginning of the week, with SHFE zinc breaking through upwards and then maintaining high - level oscillations. The macro - sentiment is neutral this week. The US government shutdown makes it difficult to predict subsequent interest rate cuts due to data shortages, and Powell's hawkish speech reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. Although some US economic data shows weakness, the ADP data slightly eases labor concerns. The US dollar index breaks through 100 due to liquidity tightness, suppressing the upside of non - ferrous metals [2]. - Fundamentally, on the supply side, domestic smelters' winter storage is not over, and raw materials are tight in the short term. TC is under pressure, slightly suppressing the willingness to start production, but refined zinc production is still at a historical high, with a projected slight decline in November. Overseas, refined zinc remains in a tight supply pattern, and LME inventories continue to decline. On the demand side, there is no suitable driving force in the short term, and it remains stable. Looking ahead, although the supply is still stronger than demand, there is expected to be some improvement in November due to the opening of the export window and the compression of smelting profits. It is expected to be mainly in a relatively strong oscillatory pattern, so attention should be paid to macro data and the supply - demand game [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Macro - level**: The US government shutdown affects interest rate cut predictions. Powell's hawkish speech reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. US economic data shows mixed signals, and the high - level oscillation of the US dollar index suppresses non - ferrous metals [2]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Domestic smelters' winter storage leads to short - term raw material tightness. TC decline may slightly suppress production start - up in November, but production is still at a high level. Overseas, supply is tight, and LME inventories are decreasing. - **Demand**: There is no short - term driving force, remaining stable. In the near - term, the zinc market's fundamentals are mixed. In the long - term, macro factors are generally optimistic, but the demand side needs support from infrastructure and real estate [2][5][7]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The current SHFE zinc main contract is in a relatively strong oscillatory pattern, with potential upward drivers influenced by exports and macro factors. The pressure level is around 23,000 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 22,200 yuan/ton. The trading volume and open interest are neutral [10][11]. - **Short - term Futures Strategy**: High - sell and low - buy within the range. Lightly go long around 22,200 - 22,300 yuan/ton with a stop - loss around 22,100 yuan/ton; go short around 22,900 - 23,000 yuan/ton with a stop - loss around 23,100 yuan/ton. Due to the strong prediction of zinc prices in November, short - selling is not recommended for now [11]. - **Short - term Options Strategy**: Mainly adopt the option double - selling strategy [11]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Basis Strategy**: Although the current basis is at a historical low, due to weak fundamentals, going long on the basis is not recommended. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: There is currently no recommendation. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: With the strong overseas and weak domestic market, the internal - external price difference is expanding. Consider cross - market arbitrage, specifically selling overseas and buying domestically, and it is advisable to enter the market now [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Short - term Futures Strategy**: It has been continuously profitable, and the point prediction has been accurate in the past two weeks. - **Options Strategy**: Adopt the wide - straddle options strategy. - **Internal - External Arbitrage Strategy**: It is advisable to enter the market. - **Zinc Risk Management Recommendations**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory, worry about price drops. Sell 75% of the SHFE zinc main contract at 22,700 yuan/ton. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory, worry about price increases. Buy 50% of the SHFE zinc main contract at 21,700 yuan/ton [17][18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: SHFE zinc inventories are decreasing; domestic processing fees TC are accelerating their decline; the export window for domestic zinc ingots is open, and SMM predicts an export volume of about 10,000 tons in October; LME inventories are continuously decreasing; LME spot premiums remain at a high level [19][20]. - **Negative Information**: The downstream开工率 in the domestic market is declining, and the domestic spot premium is weak, reflecting weak actual demand [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Chinese Data and Events**: China's October M2/social financing data (expected to be announced between the 10th and 13th); SMM/Mysteel domestic social inventory update on the 10th; SHFE/SMM weekly inventory data on the 14th. - **International Data and Events**: US October PPI and retail sales data; speeches by multiple Fed officials on inflation and employment; actual changes in China's export volume and LME inventories (especially Asian warehouses) [23]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Internal Market**: Zinc prices oscillated at a high level this week, closing at 22,720 yuan/ton. Profitable positions are mainly long in net positions. The domestic basis - calendar spread structure is stable, and the SHFE zinc term structure maintains a C structure [24][26]. - **External Market**: LME zinc was relatively strong this week, closing at 3,057.5 US dollars/ton. Investment companies and credit institutions hold a large proportion of positions, and the LME zinc term structure maintains a B structure due to inventory tightness [28][34]. - **Internal - External Price Difference Tracking**: The internal - external price difference continues to expand, mainly due to the difference in fundamentals between the two markets [36]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain Zinc concentrate processing fees continue to decline in November, and the smelting start - up rate is expected to decline slightly [38]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking In September, zinc ore imports reached 505,400 tons, a slight increase. Currently, due to the influence of domestic smelting start - up rates, zinc ore imports are at a five - year high. However, due to the weakening internal - external price ratio, the profit of imported ores is poor, and importers are more inclined to wait and see [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **Zinc Concentrate Monthly Balance**: The actual consumption exceeds production and imports in most months, showing a supply - demand gap [43][44]. - **Refined Zinc Monthly Balance**: The production, net imports, and consumption data show different supply - demand balances in different months, with some months having a surplus and others a deficit [44]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Deduction In November, domestic supply enters the winter storage period. Imported ores are in a state of continuous loss, and raw materials are expected to be tight, with a slight decline in the start - up rate [46]. 3.5.3 Demand - side and Deduction The开工率 this week was stable [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the short term, due to weak terminal acceptance and seasonal decline in demand, coal and coke prices may face adjustments. However, in the medium to long term, policies restricting over - production and safety inspections will limit the supply elasticity of coking coal. Coupled with winter storage, the downward adjustment space of coking coal spot may be limited. Coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black commodity sector [2]. - The recommended trading ranges are 1100 - 1350 for coking coal and 1600 - 1850 for coke. Consider taking partial profits when the prices rebound to the upper end of the ranges [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Short - term situation**: Recent downstream restocking and reduced mine production have improved coking coal inventory. However, steel mills are in deeper losses, with more planned maintenance, leading to a decline in hot metal production and seasonal weakening of coal and coke demand. Spot valuations are considered too high, and restocking demand has peaked [2]. - **Long - term outlook**: Policies on over - production inspection and safety will limit coking coal supply elasticity. Winter storage is expected to support prices, and coal and coke can be long - positions in the black commodity sector [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread strategy**: Coking coal basis is high, and end - users with procurement plans can consider buying hedging on the futures market. Coke basis has strengthened, and no cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy is recommended [8]. - **Calendar - spread strategy**: The 1 - 5 reverse spread for coking coal is suspended. It is recommended to wait and see due to unclear reverse - spread logic [8]. - **Hedging and arbitrage strategy**: Short the coking profit on the futures market, with an entry range of 1.5 - 1.55 for the 01 coke/coking coal ratio [8]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory hedging**: Coke producers worried about price drops can short the J2601 contract, with different hedging ratios and entry ranges [11]. - **Procurement management**: Coking plants concerned about rising raw material prices can long the JM2605 contract, with different hedging ratios and entry ranges [11]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking coal supply**: Some mining indicators such as 523 mine coking coal production and 314 coal washery production have changed. Inventory has also changed, with an overall increase in total coking coal inventory [12]. - **Coke supply**: Coke production and inventory have changed, with a decrease in total coke inventory [12]. - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke, as well as related profit indicators, have shown different trends [13][14][15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive news**: CPI increased in October, coke prices were raised, and coking coal prices in some areas rose [17]. - **Negative news**: Scrap steel prices dropped, steel mill profitability declined, and steel consumption decreased [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor China's October M2 money supply growth rate, US October CPI, initial jobless claims, China's October retail sales, and industrial added - value [19]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend**: The coking coal futures main contract failed to break through the resistance level and may enter a wide - range oscillation [19]. - **Capital flow**: Coking coal long - position holders took profits, and short - positions in coke increased, indicating a cautious market sentiment [21]. - **Calendar - spread structure**: The 1 - 5 positive spread for coking coal has strengthened, and it is recommended to wait and see for the reverse spread [26]. - **Base - spread structure**: Coking coal basis is high, suitable for buying hedging. Coke basis has strengthened, with neutral valuation [32]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Since July, upstream coking coal mines' profits have improved, while downstream coking and steel - making profits have deteriorated. Coke price increases have not significantly improved coking profits, and steel mills are reluctant to accept further price hikes [44]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Mongolian coal long - term contract trade profits have recovered, and customs clearance has increased. Seaborne coal import profits have improved, and coal shipments are expected to remain high [46][49]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply Side and Projections - Coking coal production growth in the fourth quarter is limited, with an estimated weekly production of 960 - 965 tons in November. Import supply is expected to remain high, with an estimated net import of 980 - 1000 tons in November [63]. - Coke production is expected to be 763 - 767 tons per week in November, and exports are linearly extrapolated [65]. 5.2 Demand Side and Projections - Due to shrinking steel mill profits, the estimated daily hot metal production in November is 230 - 232 tons [68]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show changes in production, imports, supply, and inventory over different weeks [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market presents a situation of "weak reality vs strong cost." Both glass and soda ash are in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but cost and policy expectations still support far - month prices [1][6]. - For glass, the 01 contract is considered to be in an oversupply situation. The mid - stream has high inventory and slow destocking. Cold - repair expectations may affect soda ash demand. For soda ash, it is mainly priced by cost, and there is a downward expectation for rigid demand due to potential glass cold - repairs [1]. - The market is affected by structural contradictions, real - world conditions, and supply disturbances. Near - end trading focuses on weak reality and strong cost, while far - end trading anticipates cost increases and supply contractions [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Structural contradictions exist. In the glass market, the coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe has led to the shutdown of 4 production lines with a total daily melting volume of 2400 tons, and the daily melting volume has dropped to 159,100 tons. The market is still considered oversupplied. For soda ash, it is cost - priced, and without production cuts, its valuation lacks upward flexibility. The rigid demand for soda ash may decline due to potential glass cold - repairs [1]. - In reality, the sales of glass manufacturers have weakened after price increases, and the inventory of traders and in Shahe and Hubei remains high, which may cause a negative feedback. Soda ash maintains a high - production and high - inventory pattern, with obvious oversupply, but there is cost support in the long - term [1]. - Supply disturbances exist. In November, besides the coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, unexpected cold - repair plans and supply disruptions in the glass industry need to be monitored [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The overall fundamental situation is weak, but cost and policy expectations support far - month prices [6]. - Price range prediction: The price range for the glass 2601 contract is (900, 1300), and for the soda ash 2601 contract is (1100, 1500). It is recommended to avoid unilateral strategies and conduct band operations within these ranges [9]. - Month - spread strategy: Without unexpected production cuts, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [9]. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Temporarily wait and see [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Glass and soda ash price range prediction: Glass 2601 contract (900, 1300), soda ash 2601 contract (1100, 1500). - Strategy suggestions: Avoid unilateral strategies and conduct band operations within the above - mentioned ranges. For the month - spread strategy, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread without unexpected production cuts. Temporarily wait and see for the hedging and arbitrage strategy [9]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management of glass and soda ash, including futures trading and option trading [10]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: The average price of glass in Shahe on November 9, 2025, was 1117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - Glass futures prices and spreads: On November 7, 2025, the glass 01 contract was 1091 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [13]. - Soda ash spot prices and spreads: On November 7, 2025, the soda ash 01 contract was 1210 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 1 - 5 month - spread was - 84 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [16]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: None provided. - Negative information: The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe has led to the shutdown of 4 production lines, and the daily melting volume may further decline. Although the glass sales rate has exceeded 100%, the sustainability needs to be observed [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow No specific information provided. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The position of the glass main contract is relatively high this week, and the long - short game may continue until near the delivery. Due to fundamental limitations, the price movement range of glass and soda ash is limited [21]. 3.3.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - Glass: It maintains a C - structure. The near - end is weak, and the far - end may have cost increases and cold - repair expectations. The 1 - 5 reverse spread idea is maintained in logic, but attention should be paid to supply disturbances [26]. - Soda ash: It also maintains a C - structure. The industry's oversupply expectation remains unchanged. The near - end is suppressed by high production and high inventory, and the far - end may have cost increase expectations. There are few short - term month - spread opportunities [26]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Glass: The coal price has risen, and the theoretical cost has increased. Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines still have profits. At current prices, glass factories have limited willingness to actively cold - repair [38]. - Soda ash: The price of thermal coal has risen, and the cost has increased. The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1260 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 1210 yuan/ton [38]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [47]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 170,000 tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the proportion has increased significantly compared to last year. The export in September was over 180,000 tons, maintaining high expectations [48]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 159,000 tons. With the continuous weakness of glass prices and environmental protection policy expectations, there may be an increase in cold - repairs in Hubei and East China [58]. - Soda ash supply: The supply has not shown unexpected fluctuations, and the current daily production of soda ash is maintained at around 105,000 tons, with high - level supply continuing [61]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: After the spot price increase, the sales of manufacturers have weakened. The mid - stream has high inventory and slow destocking, which may cause a negative feedback. The glass demand is currently weak, with high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and large spot pressure [64][65]. - Soda ash demand: The rigid demand for soda ash has slightly weakened. The combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 247,200 tons, corresponding to a daily rigid demand for soda ash of about 49,000 tons. However, due to cold - repairs in float and photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand has declined month - on - month [70]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: According to Longzhong data, the manufacturer's inventory is 63.136 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.654 million heavy boxes, or 4.03%. The inventory days have decreased by 0.9 days to 27.1 days. The mid - stream inventory in Shahe and Hubei remains high [75]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.7142 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons. The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 665,600 tons (a decrease of 11,300 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.3798 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 900 tons. The upstream inventory is relatively stable, and the oversupply is less than expected [75][77].