1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to the subsequent support from the new energy sector [1] - The intraday trend of nickel and stainless steel was oscillating, with limited improvement in fundamentals and a warming expectation of interest rate cuts in September at the macro - level. There were no obvious logical changes in fundamentals [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [3] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, short Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, short stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4] Market Situation Analysis Core Contradictions - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was oscillating, with limited fundamental improvement and a warming expectation of interest rate cuts in September at the macro - level. Indonesia is expected to slightly lower the first - phase benchmark price in September, with a firm premium. There was rainfall in some mining areas in the Philippines during the week, and there is an overall rainfall expectation in September, with limited overall impact. The price of nickel iron remained firm, and the new tender price of a large southern factory was 940 yuan/ton. The salt plants in the new energy chain were relatively strong, the MHP market was in short supply, and some traders raised the coefficient due to shortages. New energy vehicle sales remained strong, and subsequent support still existed. The intraday trend of stainless steel was also oscillating, some spot prices rose slightly, and attention should be paid to the sentiment trend approaching the peak demand season in September and October [5] Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and include elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota permit period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel - The expectation of interest rate cuts in September has increased [7] Negative Factors - Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow - The inventory of pure nickel is high - The seasonal inventory of nickel ore has increased, and the bottom support has loosened - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist - South Korea plans to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [7] Market Data Nickel - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,760 yuan/ton, up 1390 yuan or 1% from the previous day; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 1 was 120,370 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.05%; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 2 was 120,480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.02%; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 3 was 120,700 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.02%; the LME nickel 3M price was 15,280 US dollars/ton, down 305 US dollars or 0.07% [7] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 196,852 lots, up 108,077 lots or 121.74% from the previous day; the open interest was 98,903 lots, down 10,364 lots or 9.49% [7] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 22,025 tons, down 61 tons or 0.28% [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was - 1040 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan or - 32.9% [7] Stainless Steel - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,850 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0% from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 1 was 12,840 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.31%; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 2 was 12,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 0.23%; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 3 was 12,975 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08% [8] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 128,526 lots, up 25,799 lots or 25.11% from the previous day; the open interest was 128,304 lots, down 5355 lots or - 4.01% [8] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 100,851 tons, down 175 tons or 0.17% [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was 630 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 6.78% [8] Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel was 40,872 tons, down 1019 tons from the previous period - The LME nickel inventory was 209,220 tons, up 72 tons from the previous period - The stainless steel social inventory was 933.4 tons, down 0.2 tons from the previous period - The nickel pig iron inventory was 33,111 tons, down 304 tons from the previous period [9]

Report Information - Report Title: Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 27, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The market has basically digested the production restriction expectations for the military parade in North China. The pressure of steel over-seasonal inventory accumulation suppresses steel mill profits and the rebound space of steel prices, which in turn restricts the further upward movement of the cost side. The market shows a certain "desensitization" to positive factors and is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Price Forecast - Rebar 01 contract monthly price range: 3000 - 3300, current volatility: 15.97%, volatility percentile: 41.1% - Hot rolled coil 01 contract monthly price range: 3200 - 3500, current volatility: 15.81%, volatility percentile: 35.28% [2] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished product inventory and concerns about steel price decline, short rebar or hot rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Sell call options to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if steel prices rise - RB2501: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3200 - 3250 - HC2501: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3350 - 3400 - RB2510C3300: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 20 - 30 [2] Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and hopes to purchase according to orders, buy rebar or hot rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs in advance. Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if steel prices fall - RB2601: buy, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3100 - 3150 - HC2601: buy, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3250 - 3300 - RB2510P3000: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 20 - 30 [2] Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Export orders have slightly improved, military parade production restrictions, and coal mine supply events [5] Negative Factors - Steel shows over-seasonal inventory accumulation, raw material fundamentals weaken, and there is a large amount of warehouse receipts on the rebar 10 contract [5] Price Data Futures Closing Prices - Rebar 01 contract: 3172 on August 27, down 13 from the previous day and 35 from the previous week - Rebar 05 contract: 3214 on August 27, down 9 from the previous day and 31 from the previous week - Rebar 10 contract: 3111 on August 27, down 2 from the previous day and 21 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil 01 contract: 3341 on August 27, down 16 from the previous day and 44 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil 05 contract: 3348 on August 27, down 13 from the previous day and 34 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil 10 contract: 3349 on August 27, down 18 from the previous day and 53 from the previous week [6] Spot Prices - Rebar aggregate price in China: 3337 on August 27, down 8 from the previous day and 1 from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Shanghai: 3290 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Beijing: 3230 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Hangzhou: 3310 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Tianjin: 3260 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil aggregate price in Shanghai: 3380 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil aggregate price in Lecong: 3380 on August 27, down 20 from the previous day and 40 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil aggregate price in Shenyang: 3340 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [6] Other Data - Hot rolled coil overseas FOB and CFR prices, showing changes from August 20 to August 27 [7] - Rebar and hot rolled coil basis, monthly spread, volume-to-rebar spread, rebar-iron ore ratio, and rebar-coke ratio data, showing daily and weekly changes [8][9][12] - Seasonal data on basis, monthly spread, and profit for various steel products and raw materials, as well as cost and inventory data [13][20][32]

Report Date and Title - The report is titled "Stock Index Daily Report" and "Stock Index Futures Daily Report" dated August 27, 2025 [1][2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The stock index opened and fluctuated strongly, then dived in the afternoon with heavy - volume decline. Due to previous large gains in some stocks, there is an increased willingness of profit - taking funds, and the index needs adjustment. In the short - term, the adjustment is likely to continue, but the market sentiment is not significantly pessimistic as the volume - weighted average basis of each futures index variety rebounded. With expected domestic favorable policies and loose liquidity, the adjustment amplitude and duration are to be observed. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider appropriate profit - taking and position reduction if the decline continues with heavy volume [6] Market Review - The stock index closed down collectively, for example, the CSI 300 index closed down 1.49%. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded significantly by 48.6545 billion yuan, and the futures index declined with heavy volume [4] Futures Market Observation - The intraday decline rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts were - 1.71%, - 1.84%, - 1.51%, and - 2.08% respectively. The trading volumes were 1.7686 million lots, 0.77499 million lots, 1.76441 million lots, and 3.33544 million lots respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 0.43644 million lots, 0.16891 million lots, 0.57059 million lots, and 0.92377 million lots respectively. The open interests were 2.86101 million lots, 1.12063 million lots, 2.53897 million lots, and 3.97971 million lots respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13045 million lots, 0.03677 million lots, 0.24398 million lots, and 0.17455 million lots respectively [7] Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index declined by 1.76%, and the Shenzhen Component Index declined by 1.43%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 1.20. The trading volume of the two markets was 3165.565 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 48.6545 billion yuan [8] Important Information - Trump claimed to "fire" the current Federal Reserve governor, taking another step in his "control the Fed" plan. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption in September. - Trump said the US is being "exploited" and will no longer directly fund Ukraine [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market has support from over - production inspection expectations at the bottom and is restricted by the demand for finished products at the top. In the short term, the futures market may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. Before the terminal demand in the peak season is verified, it is not recommended to short coking coal for unilateral speculation, and the market should be treated with an oscillation mindset. Coke may face downward price pressure later, and the industry can consider participating in selling hedging according to the situation [4]. - The market has gradually shifted the focus of the game to the demand performance of downstream finished products. The poor demand for finished products in the past two weeks and the decline in high - frequency data have raised concerns about peak - season demand, which will also limit the upside potential of coking coal and coke [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price forecast for coking coal is in the range of 1060 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the price range is 1600 - 1800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: For inventory hedging, when seven rounds of coke price increases have been fully implemented and the possibility of further increases is low, coke producers worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract of coke at an entry range of (1750, 1800) [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Positive Factors**: There are still expectations of "anti - involution" in coal mines, and the production increase space for mines in the second half of the year may be limited. Safety accidents in some mines may trigger concerns about strict safety supervision. There is room for policy expectation games before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The apparent demand for rebar is poor, and there is pressure on the actual end of finished products. After seven rounds of coke price increases, steel mills' profits have shrunk, and they are resistant to the eighth round of price increases [4][7]. 3.3 Market Data - **Black Warehouse Receipt Data**: On August 27, 2025, compared with the previous day, the warehouse receipts of rebar increased by 23021 tons, hot - rolled coils decreased by 1499 tons, coking coal decreased by 800 hands, etc. [3]. - **Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices**: The report provides detailed data on the futures and spot prices of coking coal and coke on August 27, 2025, including basis, cost, and price changes compared with previous days and weeks [7][8]. - **Import and Export Profits**: It shows the import and export profits of coking coal and coke, such as the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term contract) being 333 yuan/ton, and the export profit of coke being 351 yuan/ton [9].

观点：反弹持续 国债期货日报 2025年8月27日 反弹或可看高一线 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 周三期债早盘下探，午后回升，全线收涨。现券收益率短端下行，长端在期货盘后略微上行。公开市场净回 笼2361亿。资金面宽松，DR001保持在1.31%附近。 日内消息： 1.1-7月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额40203.5亿元，同比下降1.7%，降幅略收窄。 2..特朗普称已完成同欧盟、日本、韩国贸易协议。特朗普将印度关税加倍至50%的行政令生效。 行情研判： 今日A股午盘再次尝试放量上冲，全A指数再创新高，但此后遭遇了明显的回吐压力，可见大盘在3800-3900 压力较大，短期有震荡加剧的可能。目前债市尚不能完全摆脱股债跷跷板的影响，盘中走势依然受股市影 响，但连续几日股市创出新高之时，期债日内低点却逐渐上升，午后股市调整，债市借机反弹。短期股市若 调整加剧，债市可继续拓展反弹空间，10年国债或可向上回补18日的缺口。操作上，低位多单可继续持有， 空仓者逢低介入。 国债期货日度数据 | | 2025-08-27 | 2025-08- ...

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年08月27日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 强压力位：90000 | 42.2% | 73.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存 | 为防止库存减值，可以根据库存情况，做空碳酸锂 期货来锁定成品利润 | LC2511 | 卖出 | 60% | | 管理 | 有减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 40% | | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购 ...

南华金属日报:金涨银震 美联储独立性面临挑战 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月27日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场金涨银震，美指略微回调，美债收益率回落，欧股下跌美股上涨，比特币回升，原油明显下 跌，南华有色金属指数震荡。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3443.2美元/盎司，+0.75%；美白银2509合约 收报于38.69美元/盎司，-0.02%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约收781.12元/克，+0.28%；SHFE白银2510合约 收9354元/千克，+0.11%。周二亚洲早盘，贵金属快速拉涨，因特朗普签署文件罢免美联储理事库克，且立 刻生效，升温美联储降息预期。据外媒报道，特朗普政府正在权衡影响地区联邦储备银行的方案，并加强对 地方联储主席选拔方式的审查，如果特朗普罢免美联储理事库克的决定在法庭上得到支持，那么美联储独立 性将面临进一步挑战，对贵金属特别是货币属性显著的黄金而言有望形成新利多，因货币宽松预期、通胀预 期及美元信誉下降预期等。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 年内降息预期略有升温。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, fiscal spending is still strong, especially government - funded expenditures in June and July. Despite the marginal decline in economic growth, there is no need for excessive pessimism as existing policies are supporting the economy, and the economic cycle has shown marginal improvement. The possibility of large - scale economic stimulus measures has decreased, and real - estate demand continues to weaken with limited effects from demand - side policies [2]. - Overseas, Powell's policy stance is seen as dovish, and the August non - farm payrolls report and price index will be key indicators for policy - shift timing. Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor challenges the Fed's independence but has not caused a major impact so far [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the market has cooled down. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1621 on the previous trading day, down 104 basis points, and the central parity rate was 7.1188, down 27 basis points [2]. - In the stock market, the index is expected to continue adjustment but with limited amplitude, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US and external trade relations [4]. - For treasury bonds, the rebound should be viewed with caution. The bond market may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw, and the short - term may provide conditions for the bond market to stabilize and rebound, but the rebound space is limited [5]. - In the shipping market, MSK's new weekly opening quotes for European routes are lower than the previous values, and the EC is likely to continue to fluctuate or decline [7]. - For precious metals, gold and silver may be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. London gold and silver may remain strong this week, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8][11]. - In the copper market, the copper price declined slightly due to the rebound of the US dollar index. The negative correlation between copper price and the US dollar index is obvious [12][13]. - For aluminum and related products, aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina is expected to be volatile and bearish, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [14][16]. - In the zinc market, the zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, and a sell - overseas - buy - domestic strategy can be considered [17]. - For nickel and stainless steel, they are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery in September and October [18]. - In the tin market, the tin price is expected to be mainly volatile, and the decline in social inventory may provide upward momentum [19]. - For lithium carbonate, the market sentiment has subsided, but expectations still exist. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream production schedules in September [20]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see or adopt a volatile trading strategy. Industrial silicon's short - term trading range is 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and polysilicon's is 50000 - 53000 yuan/ton [22][23]. - In the steel market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be volatile and bearish, and the market has become "desensitized" to positive news [24]. - For iron ore, the market sentiment has declined, and the price may fall back. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate decision in September [25]. - For coking coal and coke, they are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term, and it is not recommended to short them before the peak - season demand is verified [27]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, it is recommended to try to go long at the 60 - day moving average [28]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to be neutral and bearish in the future, and attention should be paid to downward risks [31]. - For LPG, the domestic market is volatile, and the overseas propane market is affected by multiple factors [33]. - For PTA - PX, it is recommended to short the processing margin when it is high and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage when the price is high [36]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is recommended to go long on dips and use options for hedging in the medium - to - long - term [37]. - For methanol, it is recommended to sell put options and hold a small number of long positions, and observe port提货情况 [39]. - For PP, it is expected to be in a short - term volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to demand and cost changes [41]. - For PE, it is expected to be bullish in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the actual progress of downstream demand recovery [44]. - For PVC, it is recommended to short it, as the supply - side clearance is difficult to achieve [45]. - For pure benzene and styrene, short - term unilateral shorting of styrene should be cautious, and attention should be paid to the peak - season destocking [47][48]. - For fuel oil, the price is under downward pressure due to sufficient supply [49]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is recommended to go long as the valuation is low and the upward drive exists [50]. - For asphalt, it is in a weak - volatile state and mainly follows cost fluctuations in the short - term [51]. - For rubber and 20 - number rubber, the price has risen and then fallen with an upward - moving center of gravity, and attention should be paid to supply, inventory, and macro - data [52][54]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - The Fed's independence is challenged as Trump tries to fire a governor, and the governor will sue. Global trade tensions are increasing, with Trump threatening tariffs on multiple countries [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1621 on the previous trading day, down 104 basis points, and the central parity rate was 7.1188, down 27 basis points. The market has cooled down [2]. Stock Index - The stock index adjusted with reduced trading volume. The Fed's positive impact has been priced in, and the adjustment is expected to continue but with limited amplitude [4]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds rebounded, but the rebound space is limited. The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw [5]. Shipping - MSK's new weekly opening quotes for European routes are lower than the previous values, and the EC is likely to continue to fluctuate or decline [7]. Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - Gold rose and silver was volatile. The Fed's independence is challenged, which may be beneficial to precious metals. The recommended trading strategy is to buy on dips [8][11]. Copper - The copper price declined slightly due to the rebound of the US dollar index. The negative correlation between copper price and the US dollar index is obvious [12][13]. Aluminum and Related Products - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina is expected to be volatile and bearish, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [14][16]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, and a sell - overseas - buy - domestic strategy can be considered [17]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - They are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery in September and October [18]. Tin - The tin price is expected to be mainly volatile, and the decline in social inventory may provide upward momentum [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment has subsided, but expectations still exist. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream production schedules in September [20]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a volatile trading strategy. Industrial silicon's short - term trading range is 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and polysilicon's is 50000 - 53000 yuan/ton [22][23]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The market is "desensitized" to positive news and is expected to be volatile and bearish [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has declined, and the price may fall back. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate decision in September [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term, and it is not recommended to short them before the peak - season demand is verified [27]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to try to go long at the 60 - day moving average [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price has fallen, and it is expected to be neutral and bearish in the future, with attention to downward risks [31]. - **LPG**: The domestic market is volatile, and the overseas propane market is affected by multiple factors [33]. - **PTA - PX**: It is recommended to short the processing margin when it is high and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage when the price is high [36]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is recommended to go long on dips and use options for hedging in the medium - to - long - term [37]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to sell put options and hold a small number of long positions, and observe port提货情况 [39]. - **PP**: It is expected to be in a short - term volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to demand and cost changes [41]. - **PE**: It is expected to be bullish in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the actual progress of downstream demand recovery [44]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to short it, as the supply - side clearance is difficult to achieve [45]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Short - term unilateral shorting of styrene should be cautious, and attention should be paid to the peak - season destocking [47][48]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price is under downward pressure due to sufficient supply [49]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is recommended to go long as the valuation is low and the upward drive exists [50]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a weak - volatile state and mainly follows cost fluctuations in the short - term [51]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The price has risen and then fallen with an upward - moving center of gravity, and attention should be paid to supply, inventory, and macro - data [52][54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today's stock market saw a correction with shrinking trading volume. The short - term bullish impact from the Fed was priced in quickly. Overnight, the decline of US stocks, the rebound of the US dollar index, and the pull - back of the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index reflected a drop in risk appetite, affecting the opening sentiment of A - shares. Key sentiment indicators and trading volume declined. Although the stock index adjustment was limited and the number of rising stocks was still dominant, indicating continued market optimism, the market may enter a short - term multi - empty game phase, mainly in a volatile state. Pay attention to information about Sino - US and external trade relations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Today, the stock index fluctuated and corrected. The trading volume of the two markets decreased significantly by 462.117 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IC rose with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with shrinking volume [2]. Important Information - Wall Street is discussing "Trump firing Cook", which is seen as a threat to the Fed's independence, negative for the US dollar and positive for gold and Bitcoin. Fed Governor Cook said Trump has no right to fire her and will continue her duties. - Trump plans to impose export restrictions and tariffs on foreign digital taxes. - On August 26, the new generation of China's operating system, Galaxy Kylin OS V11, was officially launched at the 2025 China Operating System Industry Conference [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Insurance strategy: Hold spot and buy put options [3]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | - 0.21 | - 0.43 | 0.18 | - 0.10 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.3216 | 6.0608 | 11.9382 | 24.1167 | | Trading volume change compared to previous day (10,000 lots) | - 4.7535 | - 2.8439 | - 2.874 | - 6.8195 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.3056 | 10.8386 | 22.9499 | 38.0516 | | Open interest change compared to previous day (10,000 lots) | - 1.6548 | - 1.18 | - 1.5056 | - 1.9253 | [3] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | - 0.39 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.26 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.20 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 26790.20 | | Trading volume change compared to previous day (billion yuan) | - 4621.17 | [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market continues to show the pattern of "the strong getting stronger." The BPI freight index and the (large) handy - sized ship transportation market's growth rates continue to expand. However, the week - on - week decline of the BCI freight index has widened, dragging down the week - on - week decline of the BDI composite freight index. Industrial product shipping demand remains strong, and the shipping demand for soymeal and sugar in agricultural products has increased significantly, supporting the shipping demand for (large) handy - sized ships [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - On August 22, the week - on - week decline of the BDI composite freight index and the BCI freight index widened. The BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices continued to rise, and their growth rates continued to expand. Specifically, the BDI composite freight index closed at 1944 points, down 4.89% week - on - week; the BCI freight index closed at 2793 points, down 15.24% week - on - week; the BPI freight index closed at 1770 points, up 9.12% week - on - week; the BSI freight index closed at 1424 points, up 5.25% week - on - week; the BHSI freight index closed at 725 points, up 3.87% week - on - week [4]. 2.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On August 25, the FDI composite index and the rent and freight rates of each ship type increased across the board. The rent index of FDI capesize ships increased by more than 10% on some routes. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1316.81 points, up 4.66% month - on - month; the FDI rent index closed at 1609.83 points, up 6.57% month - on - month. Among them, the capesize ship rent index closed at 1605.38 points, up 16.66% month - on - month; the panamax ship rent index closed at 1593.35 points, up 0.66% month - on - month; the large handy - sized ship rent index closed at 1632.26 points, up 0.9% month - on - month; the FDI freight index closed at 1121.46 points, up 2.91% month - on - month [8]. 3.1 Daily Shipping Country's Shipping Ship Quantity - On August 26, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 47 ships for shipping, Russia used 7 ships, Argentina used 19 ships, and Australia used 3 ships. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 58 ships, Guinea used 32 ships, Indonesia used 40 ships, Russia used 24 ships, South Africa used 14 ships, Brazil used 11 ships, and the United States used 16 ships [16]. 3.2 Daily Shipping Volume and Ship - Use Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipping, 20 ships were used for corn shipping, 15 for wheat, 13 for soybeans, 14 for soymeal, and 15 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 119 ships were used for coal, 71 for iron ore, and 16 for other dry goods. By ship type, the agricultural product shipping required the most post - panamax ships (39), followed by 16 handymax ships and 15 handy - sized ships. Industrial product shipping required the most capesize ships (82), followed by 68 post - panamax ships and 58 handymax ships [18]. 4. Main Port Ship Quantity Tracking - During the week, the number of ships in Chinese and Indonesian ports continued to increase month - on - month, while the number of ships docked in Australian ports continued to decrease significantly month - on - month. Adjusted data shows that from August 1st to August 25th, "one port decreased, and four ports increased." Except for a decrease of 5 dry - bulk ships docked in Chinese ports month - on - month, the number of ships in other ports is expected to increase. The number of ships in the six Australian ports increased by 2 month - on - month; the number of ships in the six Indonesian ports increased by 3 month - on - month; the number of ships in the five Brazilian ports increased by 7 month - on - month; the number of ships in the South African port increased by 1 month - on - month [19]. 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On August 25, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $38 per ton. On August 26, the near - month shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 4014 yuan per ton. On August 22, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $22168 per day. On August 25, the latest quote for the iron ore arrival price was $120.5 per thousand tons. On August 22, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14120 per day. On August 25, the latest quote for the steam - coal arrival price was 553.37 yuan per ton. On August 22, the handy - sized ship freight index was quoted at 713.6 points, and the ACFR quote for 4 - meter radiata pine was $116 per cubic meter [23].