廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 股指期货日报 2025年11月24日 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 降息预期升温带动股指高开，中小盘超调有所修复 市场回顾 今日股指涨跌不一，大盘股指收跌，中小盘股指收涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落2378.87亿元。期指方 面，IF、IH缩量下跌，IC、IM放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 美联储"三把手"放鸽，称"近期"仍存在降息空间，市场预期12月降息概率盘中突破70%。威廉姆斯在 演讲中表示，随着劳动力市场降温，就业面临的下行风险已经增加，而通胀面临的上行风险有所减轻。他认 为货币政策目前处于温和紧缩状态，但限制性程度低于近期行动之前的水平。 2.日媒称中方拒绝明年1月中日韩首脑会谈，外交部回应表示中日韩三方并没有就第十次中日韩领导人会议的 会期达成共识。 核心观点 周末美联储三把手放鸽，强调就业下行风险，提振市场降息预期，今日股指集体高开。不过由于当前中日紧 张关系尚未缓和，叠加资金止盈意愿增强，股指高开后随即回落转跌。午后开盘集体拉升，中小盘股指翻 红，表现较强，中日风波影响下军工板块领涨，两市成交额再度缩量至1.7万亿元左右。我们认为今日 ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided Core View of the Report - There is a possibility that PPI will start to rise in 2026, driven by multiple factors including supply - demand conditions and macro - policies, and the capital market needs to assess its impact [1][3][5] Summary by Related Content PPI Cycle and Driving Factors - The PPI has a cycle of about 5 years in the past 20 years and is highly positively correlated with industrial product prices. The current cycle started in 2020, reached a peak in Q4 2021, and has been in deflation since Q4 2022. 2026 may be a turning point [1] - Past PPI upward cycles were driven by supply - demand factors, macro - policies, or both. In 2016, supply - side reform and monetized shantytown renovation led to price increases. In 2020 - 2021, "double - loose" policies and supply interruptions had the same effect [3] - In 2026, both supply - demand and macro - policies support rising industrial product prices. Domestically, new projects are expected to start as it's the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", and the "anti - involution" policy will control supply. Overseas, the US is in the process of re - industrialization, and private investment in equipment and intellectual property is growing. The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates [4][5] Impact on the Bond Market - In Q3, supply - side reform news briefly affected the bond market, but the price increase was not sustained. In 2026, if PPI turns positive, it may change market expectations of monetary policy and have a negative impact on the bond market [7] Impact on the Stock Market - The cycle sector's performance is usually in line with PPI recovery, but there have been deviations. Currently, the sector has risen significantly before PPI improvement, and the short - term rally may be over - hyped. Future performance depends on whether commodity prices can be maintained or rise. Once PPI recovers, it will be positive for the cycle sector and the overall A - share market [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market continued to be strong this week, with the upward trend slowing down. Supply convergence was the main driving factor, and the downstream's price - raising purchases promoted the price increase. The market has deviated from the state of strong supply and weak demand during the supply season. The price may be stable with intermittent pressure at the end of the year [1][2]. - The corn starch market was also strong this week. The increase in raw material prices provided support, and the supply was tight in some areas, leading to a slight increase in starch prices. However, the recovery of corn prices led to a contraction in industry profits [2]. - CBOT corn futures closed higher this week, with an increase of 1.74% in the active contract, supported by good domestic demand and the expected reduction in yield per unit [2][63]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Corn supply was in the stage of inventory consumption, and the peak of concentrated selling pressure had passed. The supply - structure problem in North China caused by precipitation was prominent, and downstream demand was strong. The supply - demand structure was moving towards balance, and prices continued to rise [1]. - The price performance of different regions was differentiated. The Northeast region was stable with a weakening upward trend, the South Port was stable, and North China showed differentiation, with Shandong having the strongest upward trend [1]. - The main contract of Dalian corn futures closed up for three consecutive weeks, standing above the 2200 - yuan mark [1]. - In the short - term, factors such as state - reserve purchases, low channel inventory, and reduced imports supported price increases. In the long - term, there was a tight supply - demand expectation, but in 2026, the regulation of pig production capacity might have a negative impact on corn feed demand [7]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The end of the retracement was more obvious, and the probability of finding the bottom continued to increase. The 01 contract continued to rise after consolidation, and attention should be paid to whether it could break through the annual - line pressure [8]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Mid - and downstream enterprises should pay attention to the risk of rising long - term procurement costs. Grain - holding entities with low - cost inventory could consider hedging part of their inventory at high prices [8]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: There were no recommended basis and spread strategies for now. For cross - variety arbitrage, it was not suitable for operation for the time being, and for the pig - grain ratio, arbitrage should be on the sidelines [8][12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Corn hedging short positions were recommended to be reduced, and virtual inventory could be established at low prices (waiting to enter the market below 2100 yuan) [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: State - reserve purchases continued, the selling progress was fast, and farmers were reluctant to sell. Cold weather was conducive to grain storage, and the US government might introduce a subsidy plan [23]. - **Negative Information**: The IGC raised the global corn production forecast for 2025/26, and there were news of the release of old wheat and continuous auctions of imported corn [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Pay attention to the price changes and transaction results of CNGC's procurement and auctions, the price - supporting strength of state - reserve purchases in the Northeast, and whether price increases would stimulate selling pressure [23]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The main contract of Dalian corn futures closed up for three consecutive weeks, and the starch market strengthened after adjustment. The trading volume of starch increased while the position decreased [24]. - **Fund Flow**: The total position and trading volume of the 01 contract of corn changed little, and the total position of the 01 contract of starch decreased slightly while the trading volume increased [25]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The basis of Jinzhou Port was in a reasonable range and weakened slightly. The spread between near - and far - month contracts of corn continued to narrow, and the starch - corn spread widened [34][43][59]. - **External Market**: CBOT corn futures closed higher, with an increase of 1.74% in the active contract [63]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spread Tracking**: The spread between Dalian corn and US corn weakened this week [65]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking - Planting profit was better than last year, especially in the Northeast. Trade profit was improving, while deep - processing profit showed a slight decline [67]. - The basis of Jinzhou Port was neutral to weak, and the spot - futures price resonance increased. There was hedging profit for far - month contracts, but it was not recommended to enter the market for hedging [67]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The increase in domestic prices was smaller than that in foreign prices, and the import profit changed little [69]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China**: The supply - demand balance sheet showed that production was increasing, and the annual surplus in 2025/26 was expected to be 3.55 million tons [73]. - **Global**: The global supply - demand balance sheet showed that production was increasing, but the inventory - consumption ratio was decreasing [74]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Supply was gradually decreasing, and the selling pressure in the Northeast would be smaller. The proportion of high - quality corn in North China decreased, and there might be a shortage of high - quality corn [75]. - Procurement enthusiasm remained high, and state - reserve purchases were firm. Import volume decreased significantly, and the negative impact was not obvious [75]. - Port inventory increased slightly in the North and decreased in the South, and overall inventory was still at a low level [77]. - In the US, corn harvest was almost over, and there was a possibility of reducing yield per unit [79]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Consumption demand was good, and feed demand was supported by the peak slaughter season and secondary fattening. However, in 2026, the regulation of pig production capacity might affect corn feed demand [81]. - Deep - processing demand was in a good state, but the growth trend was slowing down. Corn starch market was strong, alcohol demand remained high, and sugar - deep - processing products showed a slight recovery [84].

——盘面价格波动明显 现货价格僵持 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/11/24 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 国产大豆市场周度保持平稳运行，价格略显僵持，整体变化有限，成交节奏进一步放缓。 东北地区在国储托 底之下，价格底部支撑明确，终端企经过补库，库存水平高于往年，高位采购积极性下降，导致价格上下驱 动有限。南方产区优质豆源流通偏紧与农户惜售情绪共同支撑价格，尽管下游接受度不高，但贸易环节挺价 意愿较强，购销进度在供需博弈下推进缓慢。需求端表现平稳，旺季特征有所体现，但终端补库动作完成， 进入常规采购为主，刚性需求仍有支撑，但贸易商过度挺价压制采购意愿； 整体来看， 国产大豆增产下结构分化带来的价格变化表现明显，区分蛋白标准下的定价分化明显，未来优质 优价现象将延续，对中低蛋白大豆带来侧面支撑，大豆市场继续消化反季节性上涨带来压力，价格呈现高位 僵持，回落十分有限，现货价格底部或已在逆势上涨中探明； 期货市场，豆一周度调整下行，主力2601合约周度下跌2.51%，期价短期在4100元关口形成反复，周度成交 有所放大，持仓量 ...

南华期货原油产业周报 —— 短期宏观与地缘利空共振 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月24日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前原油行情的核心矛盾是短期宏观与地缘利空共振，与逐步弱化的支撑逻辑形成博弈，叠加情绪定价与基 本面定价的错位修正。宏观层面，恐慌指数抬升、美股创阶段新低，美联储 12 月降息预期降温，避险情绪升 温，原油随美股同步走弱，前期未充分计价的宏观利空正逐步补价。地缘端，俄乌局势出现缓和信号，泽连 斯基同意参与美俄起草的和平计划并拟与特朗普会谈，2022 年以来最大地缘风险有望解除，地缘情绪溢价消 退，且俄油制裁松绑可能暴露基本面过剩风险，前期核心支撑逻辑持续失效。基本面无新利多支撑，过剩问 题此前被地缘因素掩盖，当前随利空发酵逐步显现。同时，布油加权已轻破 63 附近支撑，核心分歧聚焦于该 支撑位能否守住，若失效将触发二次下破，而宏观避险情绪发酵程度、地缘局势落地节奏及基本面过剩风险 释放速度，将决定是否打破 60-65 区间震荡平衡。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特 ...

Report Summary Core View - The implied volatility has increased, and the financial and commodity markets have generally declined. In the financial options market, the trading volume of put options is higher than that of call options, and the put - call trading ratio and put - call holding ratio are higher than historical average levels. In the commodity options market, the implied volatility of different varieties shows different trends [1][2]. Option Market Data Financial Options - 50ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 806,300 contracts this week, a 0.00% decrease from the previous week. The put - call trading ratio was 1.04, which decreased compared to the previous week but remained higher than the historical average. The put - call holding ratio last week was 0.98, a decrease from the previous week and higher than the historical average [1][4]. - Huatai - Ba瑞 300ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 989,500 contracts and an average daily holding volume of 1,469,300 contracts. Southern China Securities 500ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 1,455,500 contracts and an average daily holding volume of 1,453,600 contracts. Huaxia Shanghai - Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 1,184,400 contracts and an average daily holding volume of 2,476,900 contracts. Shenzhen 100ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 87,000 contracts and an average daily holding volume of 139,800 contracts. ChiNext ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 1,846,500 contracts and an average daily holding volume of 1,983,300 contracts. CSI 300 index options had an average daily trading volume of 118,800 lots and an average daily holding volume of 210,900 lots. CSI 1000 index options had an average daily trading volume of 269,300 lots and an average daily holding volume of 323,100 lots [1][4]. Volatility - As of the close on Friday, the implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 18.48%, a 2.49% increase from a week ago. The implied volatility of 50ETF options was 15.69%, a 1.42% increase from a week ago. The implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 22.97%, a 3.11% increase from a week ago [2][4]. Commodity Options Implied Volatility - As of the close on Friday, the implied volatility of crude oil options was 17.94%, a - 0.26% decrease from a week ago. The implied volatility of lithium carbonate options was 43.94%, a 9.42% increase from a week ago. The implied volatility of rebar options was 22.61%, a 0.37% increase from a week ago. The implied volatility of soda ash options was 23.03%, a - 0.44% decrease from a week ago. The implied volatility of gold options was 22.61%, with a 0.37% increase and a - 0.26% decrease from a week ago. The implied volatility of silver options was 31.28%, a 0.45% increase from a week ago. The implied volatility of palm oil options was 17.35%, a 0.89% increase from a week ago. The implied volatility of soybean oil options was 12.60%, a 0.66% increase from a week ago. The implied volatility of rapeseed oil options was 13.46%, a 0.56% increase from a week ago. The implied volatility of rubber options was 17.63%, a 0.34% increase from a week ago [2][5].

Overall Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Recently, the commodity market has witnessed a resonance decline. The coal price has dropped due to supply guarantees, and the expectation of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has driven down the prices of precious metals and crude oil. Under this background, the energy and chemical sectors, as well as precious metals, have led the decline [2][5]. - Coking coal remains within the anti - involution framework, and shorting it too aggressively is not advisable. Crude oil prices are at a relatively low level, so shorting should be done with caution. The oilseeds and oils sector is expected to fluctuate and does not have the ability to rise continuously [2][5]. - After the current adjustment, some varieties with good fundamentals, such as the oil and polyester sectors, can be considered for rebound trading. Alternatively, selling deep - out - of - the - money put options can be considered [2][5]. Market Conditions Summary General Market Conditions - This week, the commodity market as a whole has shown a continuous weakening trend, with a resonance decline across various sectors, including agricultural products [4]. Sector - specific Conditions - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Non - ferrous metals have fallen from high levels, with aluminum and nickel leading the decline, which is a manifestation of their financial attributes against the backdrop of the continuous weakening of precious metals. However, due to capacity issues in copper mines and electrolytic aluminum, the market is expected to fluctuate after the adjustment [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans this year cannot solve the problem of oversupply of US soybeans. The global soybean price does not have an environment for continuous increase. It is not recommended to chase high prices of US soybeans or domestic soybean meal. Instead, investors should view the market from a fluctuating perspective and wait for the adjustment to end before considering buying at low prices [4]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Under the expectation of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil prices have continued to weaken. Coupled with the decline in domestic coal prices, the energy and chemical sector as a whole is under pressure. However, the valuations of varieties such as methanol and PVC are significantly low, and the value of shorting is limited [4]. - **Black Sector**: Against the background of the National Development and Reform Commission's coal supply guarantee, coking coal has shown weakness, but its downward space is limited and remains within the anti - involution framework. The overall valuation of rebar is also low [4]. Data Tables Capital Flow in Sectors - The total capital flow is - 10.83 billion yuan, with - 4.139 billion yuan in precious metals, - 5.096 billion yuan in non - ferrous metals, 0.049 billion yuan in the black sector, 0.13 billion yuan in the energy sector, - 0.298 billion yuan in the chemical sector, - 0.44 billion yuan in the feed and breeding sector, - 0.812 billion yuan in the oilseeds and oils sector, and 0.204 billion yuan in the soft commodity sector. The corresponding percentage changes are - 29.5%, - 51.3%, - 86.2%, 1.1%, 8.7%, - 9.3%, - 21.1%, - 18.0%, and 12.3% respectively [9]. Weekly Data of Black and Non - ferrous Metals - Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coking coal, etc. [9] Weekly Data of Energy and Chemical Products - Similar data is provided for energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. [11] Weekly Data of Agricultural Products - Data for agricultural products, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc., are presented [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US employment data shows significant divergence, and the performance of NVIDIA's AI business has restored market risk appetite. The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed serious differences, and the change of the October non - farm report schedule has led to a lack of key data for the December interest - rate decision. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, but the policy remains firm, and the market's expectation of policy intensification is rising [2]. - The spot pressure of the container shipping European line continues, and the futures price fluctuates lower. The market is currently mixed with long and short factors, and the short - term volatility may intensify. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term [8][9][10]. - For precious metals, the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term trend is unclear [14][15][17]. - For copper, the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the driving force for copper price increase weakens. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [86000, 87000] [18][20][21]. - For the aluminum industry chain, aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina is expected to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level [22]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate narrowly, and the nickel - stainless steel market should be wary of callbacks in the unilateral downward range and pay attention to option opportunities [22][24][25]. - Tin is expected to oscillate narrowly, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25][26]. - The risk of a decline in lithium carbonate prices still exists, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. It is expected to show a "wide - range shock and weak" operating characteristic in the range of 83000 - 93000 yuan/ton in the next two weeks [27]. - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are weak, and they are expected to oscillate widely. The industrial silicon futures price is likely to maintain an oscillating and weak pattern in the short term [27][28][29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate, and there is support below [30]. - For steel products, the overall finished products are supported by raw material costs below, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range, with rebar in the range of 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil in the range of 3100 - 3400 [31][32]. - Iron ore prices continue to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and the market sentiment to improve before considering shorting at high prices [33][34]. - For coking coal and coke, the support for coking coal is loosening, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing. The coking coal 01 contract is under pressure in the short term, while the 05 contract has medium - and long - term long - allocation potential [34][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. - The crude oil market is affected by macro and geopolitical negatives, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 in the short and medium term [38][39][40]. - The valuation of LPG is being repaired, and attention should be paid to the profit of PDH and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue [41][42]. - For PTA - PX, the speculation on blending for oil is weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual dynamics of blending for oil. Consider short - term callbacks and long - term positions [42][43][45]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is too early to bottom - fish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling call options on rebounds [46][47][48]. - The upward height of methanol 01 is limited. It is recommended to hold the previous short - call positions and consider 12 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse spreads [48][49]. - The downward space of PP is limited, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern [50][52][53]. - PE is expected to continue the low - level shock pattern, and a selling option strategy can be considered [54][55][56]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the market sentiment is significantly boosted in the short term, but the domestic pure benzene fundamentals are still weak. Do not chase high prices in the medium and long term [56][57][58]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking has rebounded after a sharp decline, but it is still bearish in the future; the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59]. - The bottom space of asphalt is not large, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [60][61]. - Rubber and 20 - rubber fell after reaching the upper limit of the range, and attention should be paid to the revision of the 20 - rubber futures contract and delivery rules [61]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestic policies remain firm. Overseas, the US employment data is divided, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is inconsistent. The market is concerned about the November employment data and the appointment of the Fed chairman. The RMB exchange rate is expected to "oscillate and build a bottom, with the center slowly declining" [1][2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The dovish remarks of Fed officials have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may support the stock index in the short term. However, due to the tense Sino - Japanese relations and the lack of policy news, the stock index is expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The mid - term long positions should be held. Although there are some negative factors, the impact on the bond market is mainly short - term sentiment, and the substantial negative impact is limited [6]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The spot index has weakened again, and the shipping companies' price - holding efforts have not been effective. The market is mixed with long and short factors, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term [8][9][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the precious metals are expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. The long - term price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average [14][15][17]. - **Copper**: The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the driving force for copper price increase weakens. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and it is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [18][20][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina is expected to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and the fundamentals of each link [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The reduction of TC in November has increased the willingness of smelters to cut production, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to exports and the macro situation [22][23][24]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: They are in a unilateral downward range, and attention should be paid to callbacks and option opportunities. The cost of nickel - iron has collapsed, and the downstream demand for stainless steel is weak [24][25]. - **Tin**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The supply of concentrates is tight, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25][26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk of a decline still exists, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. The supply of lithium ore is expected to increase, and the downstream demand may decline seasonally [27]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The fundamentals are weak, and they are expected to oscillate widely. The industrial silicon futures price is likely to follow the price fluctuations of related varieties and maintain an oscillating and weak pattern [27][28][29]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and there is support below. The raw materials for smelting are tight, and the cost of recycled lead provides support [30]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate in the range, with the lower limit supported by raw material costs and the upper limit suppressed by inventory. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The price continues to oscillate widely. The decline of coking coal price may support the iron ore price. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before shorting at high prices [33][34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The support for coking coal is loosening, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing. The coking coal 01 contract is under pressure in the short term, while the 05 contract has medium - and long - term long - allocation potential [34][35]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand. The production is expected to decline, and de - stocking may depend on production cuts [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is affected by macro and geopolitical negatives, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 in the short and medium term. Attention should be paid to the changes in macro and geopolitical factors [38][39][40]. - **LPG**: The valuation is being repaired. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand for PDH is in a loss state. Attention should be paid to the profit and the Russia - Ukraine issue [41][42]. - **PTA - PX**: The speculation on blending for oil is weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual dynamics of blending for oil. Consider short - term callbacks and long - term positions [42][43][45]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is too early to bottom - fish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling call options on rebounds. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable in the short term [46][47][48]. - **Methanol**: The upward height of 01 is limited. The port pressure is increasing, and the inland is de - stocking. It is recommended to hold short - call positions and consider reverse spreads [48][49]. - **PP**: The downward space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand growth is slowing down [50][52][53]. - **PE**: It is expected to continue the low - level shock pattern. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, especially with the end of the agricultural film peak season. A selling option strategy can be considered [54][55][56]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The market sentiment is significantly boosted in the short term, but the domestic pure benzene fundamentals are still weak. Do not chase high prices in the medium and long term [56][57][58]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking has rebounded after a sharp decline, but it is still bearish in the future; the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom space is not large, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply has decreased, and the demand is gradually weakening [60][61]. - **Rubber & 20 - Rubber**: They fell after reaching the upper limit of the range. Attention should be paid to the revision of the 20 - rubber futures contract and delivery rules [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests patience with the Iron Ore 05 contract, waiting for basis repair and market sentiment to improve. Consider shorting at a high price after the contract rebounds above 770 yuan to enhance safety margins. Shorting at current price and basis levels may lead to double losses [2][3][5]. - The short - term price of iron ore is strong, mainly driven by the strong coking coal price. However, the policy is now focused on "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", and coking coal prices are expected to fall, which will support iron ore prices [3]. - The current fundamentals of iron ore are in short - term supply - demand balance. Although the overall port inventory is high, the shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, a strong spot market, and a widened basis [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Leveraging Factors**: Decreasing port inventory of deliverable mainstream medium - high grade powder ores supports near - month contracts and basis; the sharp decline in coking coal prices creates room for iron ore prices; steel demand has improved and inventory has decreased [3]. - **Negative Factors**: China is in a macro - vacuum period with weak high - frequency economic data; the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has dropped significantly, reducing market risk appetite [3]. - **Market Situation**: Iron ore prices are in a wide - range shock, with short - term strength driven by coking coal. The coking coal price is expected to fall due to policy changes. Iron ore fundamentals are in short - term balance, with high basis and a positive spread pattern [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait for basis repair before considering shorting the far - month contract of iron ore [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - The Iron Ore 2601 contract should be traded within the range of [760, 810] [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about price drops, short the iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at 820 - 830; sell call options (I2512 - C - 830) with a 30% ratio at high prices [7]. - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, go long on iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 30% hedging ratio at 780 - 790; sell out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 780) with a 40% ratio at high prices [7]. 1.4 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: Iron water cost increased by 45.18 yuan/ton week - on - week and 105.16 yuan/ton month - on - month; blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton week - on - week; blast furnace rebar profit remained unchanged week - on - week [7]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Data**: Global shipments increased by 447.4 tons week - on - week; Australian and Brazilian shipments increased by 390.3 tons week - on - week; 45 - port arrivals decreased by 472.3 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Iron Ore Demand Data**: Daily average steel mill shipments increased by 2.97 tons week - on - week; daily average iron water production decreased by 0.6 tons week - on - week; blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [10]. - **Iron Ore Inventory Data**: 45 - port imported ore inventory decreased by 75.06 tons week - on - week; steel mill imported ore inventory decreased by 74.78 tons week - on - week [11]. 2. Supply 2.1 Global Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of global iron ore shipments, year - to - date cumulative global shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative global shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [12]. 2.2 Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis - Studied the seasonality of shipments from the four major mines, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [16][17]. 2.3 Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of non - mainstream mine shipments, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between the Platts iron ore index and non - mainstream mine shipments. Also examined the proportion of non - mainstream mines and four major mines in global shipments [22][26]. 2.4 Arrival and Berthing Analysis - Studied the seasonality of arrivals at 47 ports, year - to - date cumulative arrival volume differences, the number of ships at berth, berthing days, and actual arrival volume [28][30][32]. 2.5 Capsize Shipping Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of freight prices for capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of iron ore freight in different products, and the seasonality of capsize ship speeds [36][39][41]. 2.6 Domestic Ore Supply Analysis - Examined the seasonality of daily average iron concentrate production of 186 mining enterprises and monthly iron concentrate production of 433 mining enterprises, as well as the year - to - date cumulative daily average production seasonality and monthly production year - on - year changes [44][46]. 3. Demand Analysis 3.1 Iron Water Analysis - Studied the seasonality of daily average iron water production of 247 steel enterprises, the relationship between iron water production and blast furnace maintenance, and the relationship between iron water production and iron ore prices [48][50][52]. 3.2 Steel Mill Profit Analysis - Analyzed the production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the relationship between profits and future production of different steel products [54][57][60]. 3.3 Downstream Steel Analysis: Rebar - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and price - cost relationship of rebar, as well as the production proportion of short - process steel mills and the relationship between rebar prices and cement shipments [66][71][72]. 3.4 Downstream Steel Analysis: Hot - rolled Coil - Analyzed the production, consumption, inventory, and price differences of hot - rolled coils [74][75][77]. 3.6 Downstream Steel Analysis: Medium - thick Plate - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [79][80]. 3.5 Export Analysis - Analyzed China's steel export volume, port outbound volume, export orders, and export profits of hot - rolled coils [99][100][101]. 4. Inventory Analysis 4.1 Port Inventory Analysis - Studied the seasonality of 45 - port iron ore imports, the structure of port inventory, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore prices [103][105][107]. 4.2 Other Inventory Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of iron ore imports in 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills and in - transit iron ore, and the estimated turnover days of iron ore inventory [122][123]. 5. Valuation Analysis 5.1 Basis and Term Structure - Provided the basis and delivery profit data of different iron ore varieties, and analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different iron ore contracts and the term structure of iron ore futures [124][125]. 5.2 Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio - Studied the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio for different contracts [127]. 5.3 Coking Coal Ratio Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore spread for different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore prices [129][130]. 5.4 Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis - Studied the iron - scrap steel price difference, the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and scrap steel consumption ratio, and the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and iron water - scrap steel daily consumption [132][133][135].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Short - term, after a rapid price drop, the spot and futures are stabilizing near integer levels. The overall supply of asphalt has increased due to the resumption of production at some refineries this week. Demand has improved as prices declined, mainly consuming social inventory, with no significant end - of - peak - season performance. The inventory structure has improved, with a slight increase in refinery inventory and a decline in social inventory. The cost of crude oil has been fluctuating weakly recently, and the spot basis has been weakening. In the long - term, demand in the north will end as the temperature drops, while in the south, post - rainfall catch - up demand may boost consumption. The peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Short - term, attention should be paid to winter storage, and the adjustment of refinery prices may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Due to geopolitical disturbances in crude oil, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Asphalt Price and Risk Management Price Information - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.33% [2]. - On November 21, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3240 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3020 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [2][6][9]. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, for a long spot position: - Short 25% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - Sell 20% of call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position: - Buy 50% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. - Sell 20% of put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Group 5: Other Information - There are various seasonal charts including asphalt 12 - contract basis seasonality in different regions (Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta, Northeast), asphalt futures month - spread seasonality (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12), domestic asphalt refinery inventory rate seasonality, domestic asphalt social inventory rate seasonality, and asphalt warehouse and refinery warehouse receipt quantity seasonality [10][11][13][15][17][18][20][22][23].