Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, the prices of each monthly contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first oscillated upwards and then returned to oscillation. As of the close, except for EC2606, the prices of each monthly contract of EC have rebounded. Affected by commodity sentiment, the futures price rebounded from a short - term low. Considering the current spot cabin quotes on the European line and the situation of the futures underlying, it is more likely that EC will continue to oscillate with a downward bias or maintain an oscillating trend [1] - The rise of the main commodity contracts is positive for the short - term sentiment of container shipping [2] - ONE has lowered its September European line quotes [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - For cabin management, if one has already obtained cabins but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about a decline in freight rates, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's cabin situation to lock in profits. For the EC2510 contract, the recommended selling entry range is 1450 - 1550 [1] - For cost management, if the shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and one hopes to book cabins according to the order situation, to prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. For the EC2510 contract, the recommended buying entry range is 1200 - 1300 [1] EC Contract Data - As of the close, from the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, for the EC2510 contract, the long positions increased by 614 lots to 28,928 lots, the short positions increased by 1393 lots to 32,916 lots, and the trading volume increased by 16,486 lots to 47,955 lots (bilateral). Today, the EC2508 contract was delivered, and the delivery settlement price was 2135.3 points, basically consistent with the final closing price of 2136.0 points [1] - On August 26, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2136.0 points, with a daily increase of 0.39% and a weekly increase of 2.29%; the closing price of EC2510 was 1358.0 points, with a daily increase of 3.74% and a weekly decrease of 1.10%; and so on for other contracts. There are also detailed data on price differences between different contracts [4] - On August 26, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was - 145.80 points, with a daily decrease of 8.30 points and a weekly decrease of 237.77 points; the basis of EC2510 was 632.20 points, with a daily decrease of 49.00 points and a weekly decrease of 174.87 points; and so on for other contracts [3] Spot Cabin Quotes - According to Geek Rate, on September 4, for Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam sailings, the total quote for 20GP was $1310, an increase of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2200, an increase of $10 compared to the previous period. In early September, for ONE's Shanghai - Rotterdam sailings, the total quote for 20GP was $1654, a decrease of $460 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2343, a decrease of $700 compared to the previous period [6] Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 1990.2 points, a decrease of 189.97 points or 8.71% compared to the previous value; the latest value of SCFIS for the US - West route was 1041.38 points, a decrease of 64.91 points or 5.87% compared to the previous value; and so on for other freight rate indices [7] Global Major Port Waiting Time - On August 25, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.452 days, a decrease of 0.112 days compared to the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.800 days, a decrease of 0.120 days compared to the previous day; and so on for other ports [13] Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity at Suez Canal - On August 25, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.872 knots, an increase of 0.094 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of 3000 + container ships was 14.742 knots, a decrease of 0.09 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of 1000 + container ships was 13.385 knots, an increase of 0.143 knots compared to the previous day. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 18, a decrease of 3 compared to the previous day [23]

周一贵金属市场呈现下跌调整，美指强势反弹对贵金属形成一定压力，因特朗普政府正在考虑对负责执行 《数字服务法案》的欧盟或成员国官员实施制裁的消息拖累欧元下跌。另外周边美债收益率微涨，欧美股市 普遍回调，比特币下跌，原油上涨，南华有色金属指数上涨。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3410.7美元/盎 司，-0.23%；美白银2509合约收报于38.55美元/盎司，-1.29%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约收779.18元/克， +0.46%；SHFE白银2510合约收9394元/千克，+1.89%。周二亚洲早盘，贵金属快速拉涨，因特朗普签署文 件罢免美联储理事库克，且立刻生效。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 降息预期继续降温。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为17.2%，降息25个 基点的概率为82.8%；美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为10%，累计降息25个基点的概率为55.5%，累计降 息50个基点的概率34.5%；美联储12月维持利率不变的概率2.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为19.5%，累计 降息50个基点的概率为51.1%，累计降息75个基点的概率为27.3%。长线基金看，S ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rise in copper prices on Monday was unexpected. Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on Friday was considered dovish by the market, leading to a significant decline in the US dollar index and boosting the valuation of the non - ferrous metals sector. The strong performance of the domestic stock market on Monday also had a certain positive impact on the entire commodity sector. However, the downstream still needs time to accept high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,690 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **L利多 Factors**: The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; increased expectations of interest rate cuts led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; the lower support level has risen [4]. - **利空 Factors**: Tariff policies are inconsistent; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy has led to an extremely high COMEX inventory [5][6]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 79,690 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 1,040 yuan/ton, a 1.32% increase; the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract had no change; the LME Copper 3M contract rose 74.5 dollars/ton, a 0.77% increase; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.18, a 0.24% decrease [6]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 Copper, Shanghai Wumaoy, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - Ferrous were 79,395 yuan/ton, 79,360 yuan/ton, 79,300 yuan/ton, and 79,490 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.72%, 0.68%, 0.7%, and 0.68%. The spot premiums of these four decreased to varying degrees [11]. Copper Scrap Spread - The current含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,551.28 yuan/ton, a 43.1% increase; the reasonable含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,495.3 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase; the price advantage decreased by 113.84%. The current不含税 refined - scrap spread is 6,230 yuan/ton, an 8.35% increase; the reasonable不含税 refined - scrap spread is 6,219.38 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the price advantage decreased by 102.52% [15]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons to 23,747 tons, a 1.66% decrease; the total international copper warehouse receipts decreased by 227 tons to 5,898 tons, a 3.71% decrease [19]. - **Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory decreased by 375 tons to 155,975 tons, a 0.24% decrease; the total COMEX copper inventory increased by 3,430 tons to 272,500 tons, a 1.27% increase [21][22]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 49.05 yuan/ton, a 131.95% decrease; the copper concentrate TC is - 41.3 dollars/ton with no change [23].

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年8月26日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 269570 | 245000-263000 | 14.36% | 26.1% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2511C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锡主力期货合约 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai Nickel was oscillating strongly, mainly influenced by the broader market. The expectation of interest rate cuts in September has improved at the macro - level, and there is no obvious change in the fundamental logic. The second - phase benchmark price in Indonesia in August was slightly adjusted downwards. There was rainfall affecting shipments in some mining areas in the Philippines this week, and there is an expectation of rainfall in September. Nickel iron remained strong intraday, with supply price support continuing. The salt factories in the new energy chain have been relatively strong recently, and the MHP market is in short supply. Stainless steel also showed a strong trend intraday, with spot prices rising. Attention should be paid to the sentiment trend as it approaches the peak demand season in September and October [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the potential revision of the HPM formula by APNI in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota license period in Indonesia, the potential increase in stainless - steel demand from the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower station construction, and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September. Negative factors include stainless steel entering the traditional off - season with slow inventory reduction, high pure nickel inventory, seasonal increase in nickel ore inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and South Korea's potential anti - dumping duties on Chinese hot - rolled products [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel** - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product sales price decline and inventory impairment, strategies include selling Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and selling call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about raw material price increases for future production procurement, strategies include buying Shanghai Nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, selling put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buying out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product sales price decline and inventory impairment, strategies include selling stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and selling call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about raw material price increases for future production procurement, strategies include buying stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, selling put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buying out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3]. 3.3 Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data** - The latest price of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 120,310 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of Shanghai Nickel continuous contracts 1, 2, and 3 increased by 0.59%, 0.54%, and 0.54% respectively. The LME Nickel 3M price is 14,975 US dollars/ton, up 0.61%. The trading volume is 119,179 lots, and the open interest is 110,337 lots. The warehouse receipt volume decreased by 1.15% to 22,292 tons, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 34.8% to - 1,550 yuan/ton [6]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk Data** - The latest price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,880 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of stainless - steel continuous contracts 1, 2, and 3 increased by 1.02%, 0.90%, and 0.89% respectively. The trading volume is 156,339 lots, and the open interest is 141,999 lots. The warehouse receipt volume decreased by 0.23% to 101,687 tons, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 18.06% to 590 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory** - Domestic social inventory of nickel is 40,872 tons, a decrease of 1,019 tons. LME nickel inventory is 209,748 tons, an increase of 150 tons. Stainless - steel social inventory is 933.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons. Nickel pig iron inventory is 33,111 tons, a decrease of 304 tons [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - With the decrease in inventory fruits and the quality issues such as coloring of Gala apples recently, the futures price has shown an obvious upward trend. However, it's too early for late Fuji to color, and the current market may be overreacting. The short - term price trend is strong, but one should beware of price fluctuations caused by the inconsistency between expectations and reality [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Production Areas**: This week, early - maturing apple varieties are gradually increasing in quantity. In northern Shaanxi, new - season early - maturing Gala apples have uneven quality, with a limited proportion of good - quality and large fruits, and prices are polarized. In Shandong, the old - season Fuji apples at the terminal are being digested slowly, with low cost - effectiveness, and merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing large and good - quality fruits is low. In early - maturing varieties, apples in Qixia are trading steadily with low supply but high merchant enthusiasm [1] - **Sales Areas**: The number of trucks arriving at the three major markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased slightly compared to the previous week. Actual transactions are priced according to quality. The current arrival volume is still low, mainly Fuji apples, with an increase in early - maturing Gala apples. The terminal sales speed of apples is slow, with good - quality fruits being digested at a reasonable speed and poor - quality fruits slowly. There is a slight backlog in transit warehouses [1] Inventory - As of August 20, according to Steel Union data, the national cold - storage inventory is 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory removal speed has slowed down slightly. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 7.11%, a decrease of 0.89%, and in Shaanxi is 1.41%, a decrease of 0.43%. According to Zhuochuang data, the national cold - storage inventory is 404,200 tons, a decrease of 57,100 tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 5.26%, a decrease of 0.59%, and in Shaanxi is 2.65%, a decrease of 0.49% [2] Bagging Data - According to Steel Union data, based on bagging conditions, it is estimated that the national apple production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 2.35% to 3.73664 million tons. Among them, Shaanxi's production will increase by 7.57% to 878,840 tons, Shandong's will decrease by 9.89% to 782,370 tons, Gansu's will increase by 2.18% to 379,150 tons, and Henan's will increase by 21.09% to 274,280 tons [3] Market Analysis - The decrease in inventory and quality issues of early - maturing apples have led to an upward trend in the futures price. But the early - stage speculation may be premature, and price fluctuations due to the gap between expectations and reality should be guarded against [3] Futures Price Analysis - From the futures market, the recent trend is strong. If there is strong support at 8150, the pressure range around 8400 can be considered [4] Market Concerns - Cold - storage inventory removal, weather conditions in production areas, and the opening price and transaction volume of early - maturing apples [5] Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing prices of various apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) have declined to varying degrees, with AP10 having the largest decline of 1.65%. Among spot prices, the price of Qixia's first - and second - grade 80 apples has decreased by 1.32%, while the prices of other regions remain unchanged. The futures profit has decreased by 8.94%, and the main basis has increased by 26.55% [7]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 78,690 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 11.64%, with a historical percentile of 22.6% [2] Group 3: Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure): - Strategy 1: Short the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with a hedging ratio of 75% and a suggested entry range around 82,000 yuan/ton [2] - Strategy 2: Sell call options (CU2511C82000), with a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure): - Strategy: Long the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with a hedging ratio of 75% and a suggested entry range around 77,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are still in the process of consolidating the bottom. Macroscopically, the Fed meeting minutes had little impact on copper prices, but Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting pushed down the US dollar index and boosted the valuation of non - ferrous metals, leading to a significant rise in copper prices on Friday night. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the tender TC of many mining enterprises was lower than expected this week, and the export of copper ore from Indonesia met expectations. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of copper rod enterprises increased by 1.2% month - on - month, and the finished - product inventory decreased slightly to 66,100 tons. Terminal demand remained stable, and the willingness to actively replenish inventory was not strong when the price did not clearly fall to 78,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate around 79,000 yuan/ton, with some pressure above. According to the current downstream and terminal situation, prices above 79,000 yuan/ton are prone to negative feedback, and slight macro - positive factors are difficult to keep the price above this level. Copper prices are also difficult to fall significantly to around 78,000 yuan/ton, as approaching this price will stimulate downstream inventory replenishment. Investors need to pay attention to the US core PCE price in July and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August [3] Group 5: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies [4] - Increased expectations of interest rate cuts led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals [4] - The lower support level has been raised [4] Bearish Factors - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy led to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5] Uncertain Factors - Repeated tariff policies [7] - Global demand decreased due to tariff policies [7] Group 6: Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,690 | 0 | 0% | [6] | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,650 | 140 | 0.18% | [8] | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,610 | 0 | 0% | [8] | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,809 | 74.5 | 0.77% | [8] | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.2 | 0.01 | 0.12% | [8] Group 7: Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,830 | 30 | 0.04% | [13] | Shanghai Wumaotong | yuan/ton | 78,825 | 80 | 0.1% | [13] | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 78,750 | 70 | 0.09% | [13] | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,950 | 80 | 0.1% | [13] | Shanghai Non - ferrous Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 150 | - 10 | - 6.25% | [13] | Shanghai Wumaotong Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 135 | 20 | 17.39% | [13] | Guangdong Nanchu Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 165 | 35 | 26.92% | [13] | Yangtze Non - ferrous Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 160 | 5 | 3.23% | [13] Group 8: Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 1,084.04 | 50 | 4.84% | [15] | Reasonable Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 1,488.5 | 0.5 | 0.03% | [15] | Tax - included Price Advantage | yuan/ton | - 404.46 | 49.5 | - 10.9% | [17] | Current Tax - free Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 5,750 | 50 | 0.88% | [17] | Reasonable Tax - free Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 6,172.19 | 3.47 | 0.06% | [17] | Tax - free Price Advantage | yuan/ton | - 422.19 | 46.53 | - 9.93% | [17] Group 9: Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Receipt | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 24,148 | - 1,009 | - 4.01% | [19] | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 6,125 | 0 | 0% | [19] | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | tons | 2,405 | 0 | 0% | [19] | Total Bonded Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | [19] | Total Tax - paid Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 24,148 | - 1,009 | - 4.01% | [19] LME Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 155,975 | - 375 | - 0.24% | [21] | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | tons | 24,550 | - 150 | - 0.61% | [21] | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | tons | 131,425 | - 225 | - 0.17% | [21] | LME Copper Inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | [21] | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 143,450 | - 1,550 | - 1.07% | [21] | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 12,525 | 1,175 | 10.35% | [21] COMEX Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 271,482 | 2,416 | 0.9% | [22] | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 138,871 | 13,745 | 1.19% | [22] | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 132,611 | - 1,842 | - 1.37% | [22] Group 10: Copper Import Profit and Processing | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | 153.53 | - 81.28 | - 34.62% | [23] | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 41.3 | - 3.1 | 8.12% | [23]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term bottom of the bond market has initially emerged. The bond market has shown an independent trend, becoming desensitized to the stock market, indicating that the short - term adjustment may be over. The Shanghai property market new policy is expected to have limited impact on the overall real estate market and will not be a negative factor for the bond market. Currently, the bond market has the conditions to build a bottom. It is not advisable to chase high prices. Low - position holders can continue to hold, and those with empty positions can buy on dips [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1盘面点评 - On Monday, bond futures opened lower and closed higher, with all lines closing up. The yields of spot bonds declined across the board, with a larger decline in the long - end. The net investment of 7 - day reverse repurchase and MLF in the open market was 621.9 billion yuan. The money market became looser, and DR001 fell to around 1.35% [1]. 3.2日内消息 - At the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell was dovish, emphasizing employment risks and opening the door for interest rate cuts. He announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework, eliminating the policy of tolerating high inflation and promising to anchor long - term inflation expectations. - Shanghai issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting real estate policies, including no limit on the number of properties outside the outer ring for eligible buyers, single buyers being treated the same as families, increasing the personal housing provident fund loan limit, allowing the use of housing provident funds for down payments, no longer distinguishing between first - and second - home commercial loan interest rates, and exempting non - Shanghai residents from property tax for their first homes and providing a tax - free area of 60 square meters per person for their second homes [2]. 3.3行情研判 - Affected by Powell's dovish remarks at the global central bank annual meeting and the sharp rise in US stocks, A - shares opened higher and strengthened in the morning, retreated at noon, but recovered during the day, closing at a high point. However, treasury bonds showed an independent trend. After being affected by the stock market at the opening, they continued to rise in the morning and consolidated at a high level in the afternoon, ending the previous continuous decline. The bond market's desensitization to the stock market may mean that the short - term adjustment is in place and the bottom is becoming clear. The Shanghai property market new policy is expected to have limited impact on the overall real estate market and will not be a negative factor for the bond market [3]. 3.4国债期货日度数据 - The report provides data on the closing prices, changes, contract holdings, and trading volumes of TS2512, TF2512, T2512, and TL2512, as well as the basis and trading volume of the main contracts and the changes in the basis [4]. 3.5 Other Data Charts - The report also includes charts on the basis and IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL, the interest rate trends of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, the bond spreads, the financing interest rates of deposit - taking institutions and policy interest rates, the exchange financing interest rates, the money - layer data, the yield trends of US bonds, and the US - China interest rate spreads and RMB exchange rates [5][9][10][12][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Today, the stock market rose with increasing trading volume. Before the market opened, Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday released a dovish signal, making a September interest rate cut almost certain, which led to an increase in the expectation of loose liquidity, an upward movement in US stocks, and a rise in risk appetite. As a result, stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate all rose today. However, the market had already priced in the September interest rate cut, and the subsequent interest rate cut path remains uncertain, so the impact of this factor may be priced in the short term. [6] - In addition to the still strong technology concepts, the real estate industry led the gains today due to the adjustment of Shanghai's real - estate policies. Premier Li Qiang emphasized the stabilization of the real - estate market last week, and further policy adjustments are still worth looking forward to. [6] - In the context of the profit - making effect, the stock market continued to rise with increasing trading volume. In the absence of obvious negative news, the main risk is the cooling of sentiment and the withdrawal of funds. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to monitor changes in trading volume and sentiment indicators and adopt a trading strategy that combines holding positions and hedging. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index showed a significant upward trend with active trading. The turnover of the two markets increased by 594.28 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increasing trading volume, and the large - cap futures indices showed a relatively strong trend. [4] Important Information - The Shanghai headquarters of the central bank adjusted the pricing mechanism of commercial personal housing loan interest rates in Shanghai. [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets exceeded 3 trillion yuan for the first time since October 8 last year and the second time in A - share history, with an increase of more than 60 billion yuan compared to the same time the previous day. [5] - Shanghai adjusted real - estate policies, including no limit on the number of housing purchases outside the outer ring for eligible buyers, treating single home - buyers the same as families, optimizing housing provident funds, personal housing credit, and personal housing property tax. [5] Strategy Recommendation - Insurance strategy: Hold the underlying assets and buy put options. [7] Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday percentage change (%) | 2.29 | 2.14 | 1.80 | 1.27 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 18.0751 | 8.9047 | 14.8122 | 30.9362 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 4.0615 | 1.5585 | 1.9543 | 3.1645 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 28.9604 | 12.0186 | 24.4555 | 39.9769 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index percentage change (%) | 1.51 | | Shenzhen Component Index percentage change (%) | 2.26 | | Ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks | 1.83 | | Turnover of the two markets (billion yuan) | 3141.137 | | Turnover change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | 594.428 | [8]

Report Title - Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report - EG's explicit inventory continues to decline, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] Core View - Ethylene glycol's supply and demand have both increased recently, but it is mainly within expectations, and there is no obvious driving force in terms of fundamentals. The short - term sentiment of the chemical industry is expected to remain strong. Although the ethylene glycol market is in a cumulative inventory trend, the inventory increase expectation has been well - traded, and it is difficult to compress the valuation. With the combination of low inventory, neutral valuation, and inelastic supply, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. Operationally, it is advisable to go long on pullbacks within the range. In the medium - to - long - term, the performance of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Other Key Points Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol | 4300 - 4700 | 9.09% | 1.4% | | PX | 6500 - 7400 | 11.78% | 17.7% | | PTA | 4400 - 5300 | 9.30% | 4.6% | | Bottle Chip | 5800 - 6500 | 7.92% | 0.9% | [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | High finished - product inventory, worried about ethylene glycol price decline | Long | Short ethylene glycol futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs; buy put options to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | EG2601, EG2510P4400, EG2510C4600 | Sell, Buy, Sell | 25%, 50% | 4550 - 4700, 10 - 20, 30 - 70 | | Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy ethylene glycol futures to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops | EG2601, EG2510P4400 | Buy, Sell | 50%, 75% | 4350 - 4450, 30 - 50 | [2] 利多解读 1. South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will agree to cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity per year, which may impact ethylene glycol's raw material supply and ethylene - based production costs [4] 2. The planned arrival this week is 9.851 million tons, relatively low, and the port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons next Monday, which will further tighten spot liquidity [6] 3. The loom load has continued to increase slightly recently. As the terminal autumn and winter orders start in September and foreign trade orders have recovered, the demand and downstream sentiment have improved marginally, and the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to continue to increase [6] 利空解读 - The supply side of oil and coal has both increased, and the total load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%). Among them, the ethylene - based production load has increased, and the coal - based production load has risen to 81.25% (+0.78%). Next week, some plants have maintenance and restart plans, and the total load is expected to continue to increase [7] Price and Spread Data - The report provides price data for various products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including daily and weekly changes, as well as spread data between different contracts and processing fee data [10][11]