供应较稳，企业库存上升 摘 要： 供需关系：当前浮法玻璃企业利润较稳，日熔量较稳，本周暂 时未有浮法产线放水、点火预期，产量或持稳运行。浮法玻璃终端需 求仍偏弱，华北地区呈现下行趋势，沙河地区在市场情绪降温下，低 价货源流通，加之中下游业者主要消化自身库存，抑制厂家出货，工 厂库存增长明显，后期重点关注浮法玻璃开工变化。预计玻璃价格近 期震荡运行，01合约上方压力1270一线。建议短线高抛低吸，注意止 损。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：蒯三可 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货从业资格号：F03040522 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 风险提示：下游深加工企业订单回升超预期缓慢 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 | 第1章 行情回顾 | | 4 | | --- | --- ...

Report Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term bullish [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply - side pressure of the pig industry may continue to increase, with scale enterprises accelerating sales and reducing weight to increase volume, high feed - to - meat ratio and cost due to continuous high temperature, retail farmers selling large - weight pigs, and the recurrence of African swine fever in some areas. The demand side remains sluggish due to the high - temperature off - season, general transactions, continuous losses of slaughtering enterprises, reduced purchases, few second - fattening entrants, and inactive frozen product storage. It is recommended to operate the LH2509 contract in the short - term range or long - term layout long positions in the LH2511 contract, and farmers should choose the opportunity to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [2][20] Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis - The report may analyze the supply situation through the monthly trend chart of the number of breeding sows in sample enterprises and the weekly trend chart of the average slaughter weight of national sample commercial pigs [5][7] 2. Demand Situation Analysis - The report may analyze the demand situation through the key slaughtering enterprise's开工率, commercial pig inventory structure by weight, and key slaughtering enterprise's frozen product storage rate [11][13][14] 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - The report may analyze the cost - profit situation through the self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding [16][18] 4. Market Outlook - The supply - side pressure may continue to increase, and the demand side remains sluggish. It is recommended to operate the LH2509 contract in the short - term range or long - term layout long positions in the LH2511 contract, and farmers should choose the opportunity to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [2][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal price in the domestic market continued to fluctuate this week. On the 8th, mainstream coke enterprises proposed a sixth round of price increases for coke, with a 50 yuan/ton increase for tamping wet quenched coke and a 55 yuan/ton increase for tamping dry quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on August 11th [2][4]. - Overall supply has decreased due to the continuous advancement of coal mine over - production inspections and the implementation of the "276 - working - day" production plan by some coal mines in Shanxi. The daily average clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high. Coke production has increased slightly, and the downstream procurement rhythm has slowed down after restocking, but coal mine inventories continue to decline. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not obvious, and the futures market is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal price in the domestic market continued to fluctuate. Mainstream coke enterprises proposed a sixth - round price increase for coke, with different increases for tamping wet quenched and dry quenched coke [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, lower the deposit - reserve ratio, and increase financing support for key areas [6]. - Relevant departments have issued plans for the digital transformation of the machinery industry, rural road improvement, etc. [6]. - In July, the CPI increased month - on - month, and the PPI decline narrowed. The year - on - year growth rate of the top 100 real - estate enterprises' land acquisition amount increased significantly. The retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased year - on - year. The monthly operation rate of construction machinery decreased, and the export of household appliances increased year - on - year [6][7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Affected by various factors such as coal mine inspections, production tasks, and underground conditions, the daily output of raw coal has shrunk, and short - term recovery is slow. The overall supply has decreased due to inspections and production plans, while the import at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high [2][29]. - Demand: Some coke enterprises have initiated a sixth - round price increase. Steel mills have good profits and high operating rates, with strong rigid demand for coke. Coke production has increased slightly, and the downstream procurement rhythm has slowed down [2][29]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Market Outlook: Domestic supply is constantly disturbed, and it will take time for the increase in Mongolian coal imports to be reflected. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not obvious, and the futures market is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [29]. - Investment Strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for coking profits, stay on the sidelines [2][29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, steel prices may fluctuate and adjust, with the situation of repeated rises and falls still existing. Cost still supports steel prices, but the supply - demand pressure in the steel market has increased recently, and inventory continues to accumulate. [2][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Driven by the continuous promotion of strict investigations on coal over - production, coking coal prices rebounded again, boosting the overall sentiment of the black series. The rebar futures market rose in the short - term, but due to weak terminal demand and increased inventory accumulation, the price rebound was limited. The supply side continued to resume and increase production due to high profits, while the demand side became calmer, with expectations cooling and actual terminal demand weakening. [2][3] 3.2 Macro and Industrial News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, lower the deposit - reserve ratio, and increase financing support for key areas. - Eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation plan for the digital transformation of the machinery industry, with clear goals for 2027 and 2030. - Three departments issued a plan for the rural road improvement action, aiming to complete 300,000 kilometers of new and reconstructed rural roads by 2027. - In July, the CPI turned from a 0.1% decline to a 0.4% increase month - on - month and was flat year - on - year; the PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. - The land acquisition amount of the top 100 real - estate developers increased significantly year - on - year from January to July 2025, with a growth rate of 34.3%. - In July, the retail sales of the national passenger - car market reached 1.826 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; the retail sales of the new - energy passenger - car market reached 987,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.0%. - In July, the monthly operating rate of major construction machinery products in China was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.72 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points. - In July, China exported 37,610,000 household appliances; from January to July, the cumulative exports were 258,961,700 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. [5][6][7] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - The average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 103,400 tons, higher than last week's 94,100 tons. Affected by seasonal factors such as heavy rainfall in South and Central China, the overall market demand continued to be weak. [10] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the short - term, steel prices may fluctuate and adjust. The cost still supports steel prices, but the supply - demand pressure in the steel market has increased, and inventory continues to accumulate. - From the futures market, most of the black series closed down, with only coking coal closing up slightly. The rebar main contract 10 closed at 3213, down 23 points on the day, up 10 points from last week's closing price, and the weekly settlement price was 3215, down 69 points from last week. The latest position was 1.612 million lots, a reduction of 149,000 lots from last Friday. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, stay on the sidelines; for steel profits, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy. [30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has significantly increased, and the number of rate cuts within the year may be large, with the total rate cut amplitude potentially exceeding market expectations [2][28] - Gold and silver may show a divergent trend. Gold may experience a sideways or slightly bearish sideways trend as the need for hedging weakens, while silver may strengthen further in the short - term, and a catch - up rally may occur [2][28] - Tracking US economic data to monitor when the precious metals market will start the interest - rate - cut expectation rally will be the focus in the future [3] - The impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold is limited and is not a key consideration [3][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The US dollar index has limited downward momentum. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut, funds may flow back to the US, supporting the US dollar. Gold's sideways nature may intensify, while silver is expected to show a sideways - bullish trend due to increased industrial demand [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Trump administration will issue a new policy clarifying that imported gold bars should not be subject to tariffs [12] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly higher than expected. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, hitting a new high since November 2021 [12] - Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [15] - The US Treasury Secretary has started the interview process for the new Fed Chairman, and Fed Governor Waller is considered a top candidate [15] - Fed's Daly said that policy may need adjustment in the coming months, and tariffs are unlikely to continuously push up inflation [15] - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped from 50.8 to 50.1, lower than expected, while the S&P Global Services PMI final value in July reached a new high since December 2024 [15][16][19] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US economic data shows that the economy remains resilient but with increasing downward pressure, and the market is trading around the September interest - rate - cut expectation [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Trump imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods and plans to impose high tariffs on chips and semiconductors. European leaders issued a statement on the Ukraine peace issue [18] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - With the increasing expectation of a September rate cut, high - risk - appetite assets such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may strengthen further. Crude oil prices are affected by production cuts, and the price of copper shows a divergence between domestic and international markets [19] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. Although the depreciation pressure has increased, it has good resilience, and its impact on gold is limited [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The expectation of a September rate cut has increased significantly, and gold and silver may show a divergent trend in the short - term, with silver potentially strengthening [28]

棕榈油高位震荡偏强运行 摘 要： 行情展望： 马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）数据显示：马来西亚7月 毛棕榈油产量为181.24万吨，环比增加7.09%；棕榈油进 口为6.10万吨，环比减少12.82%；棕榈油出口为130.91 万吨，环比增加3.82%；棕榈油期末库存量为211.33万吨， 环比增加4.02%。 即将进入消费旺季，叠加生柴需求预期的兑现，国内 美豆缺席抬升豆系价格重心等一系列因素下，市场对于四 季度的价格预期较高。因此强预期和弱现实的局面下 01 合约相对 09 合约走强。只是由于产地近月挺价意愿强 烈，且 8 月 1-5 日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比大幅下降， 一定程度上对 09 合约有支撑，因此 9-1 价差仍然维持 窄幅震荡。短期内预计棕榈油高位震荡运行为主。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【201 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have no obvious contradictions, and the futures price is expected to rise easily and fall hard in the short term [1] - Gold is expected to experience a short - term further correction and show an oscillating and bearish trend [2] - The fundamentals of rebar are marginally weakening, but the futures price still has strong support before the parade [4] - The fundamentals of iron ore have limited bearish drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [5] - The bond market still has upward momentum in the short term, and a strategy of short - selling at important resistance levels is recommended [5] - For live pigs, short - term interval trading for the LH2509 contract or long - term layout of long positions for the LH2511 contract is recommended [6] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] - Gold and silver may show a divergent trend, with silver in an upward trend [7] - The spot price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [7] - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term [8] - The L2601 contract of LLDPE is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9] - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10] Group 3: Summaries According to Short - Comments Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate is 74.03%, an increase of 0.34%; daily coke output is 65.10, an increase of 0.29; coke inventory is 69.73, a decrease of 3.89; total coking coal inventory is 987.92, a decrease of 4.81; coking coal available days are 11.4 days, a decrease of 0.11 days [1] - Supply is reduced due to over - production verification and the "276 - working - day" plan; the Ganqimaodu Port's daily average customs clearance is 1166 vehicles, remaining at a high level; downstream procurement has slowed down, but coal mine inventories continue to decline [1] Gold - The Trump administration will clarify the "misinformation" about gold tariffs; the short - term callback is expected, and it is oscillating and bearish in the long - term due to factors like the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2] Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 percentage points; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points; steel mill profitability rate is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points; daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.62 tons [4] - Steel mill production restrictions are expected due to the approaching parade; typhoon impact has weakened, demand has recovered, production has increased, and inventory has accumulated [4] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13712.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.37 tons; daily average port clearance volume is 321.85 tons, an increase of 19.14 tons; the number of ships at ports is 105, an increase of 15 [5] - Overseas mine shipments have decreased, but port arrivals have increased; steel enterprise profitability is at a high level, and short - term production reduction is less likely [5] Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - A number of major foreign - funded projects are progressing steadily, and policies to attract foreign investment are being strengthened; exports are resilient, and counter - cyclical adjustment may be intensified in the second half of the year; liquidity is relatively loose, supporting the bond market [5] Live Pigs - As of August 8, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.32 kg, a decrease of 0.22 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.29%, an increase of 0.11%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 31.43 yuan per head, a decrease of 12.74 yuan per head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 186.91 yuan per head, a decrease of 15.56 yuan per head; the price of piglets is 413.81 yuan per head, a decrease of 9.05 yuan per head [6] - Farmers' price - holding sentiment has emerged after price drops, but terminal demand is weak, and there is no continuous upward momentum [6] Palm Oil - From August 1 to 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the previous month [6] - As the main contract is approaching replacement, the spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has widened slightly, and consumption is mainly for rigid demand [6] Silver - On August 11, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September is 88.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11.6% [7] - The US dollar index has a short - term rebound demand, but the downward trend remains, which is beneficial to precious metals; silver is in an upward trend [7] Soybean Meal - Last week's average daily trading volume of soybean meal is 29.664 tons, with spot trading volume of 10.684 tons; this week's average daily trading volume is 51.198 tons, with spot trading volume of 7.092 tons [7] - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of lower near - term prices and higher long - term prices, and the spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [7] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2380 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan per ton; China's methanol port sample inventory is 92.55 tons, a weekly increase of 11.71 tons; sample production enterprise inventory is 29.37 tons, a weekly decrease of 3.08 tons; sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 24.08 tons, a weekly increase of 1.01 tons; methanol capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a weekly decrease of 3.55%; downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.61%, a weekly increase of 0.85% [8] - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has accumulated significantly, and the market is expected to oscillate [8] Plastic (LLDPE) - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7321 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton; LLDPE weekly output is 30.04 tons, a weekly increase of 9.76%; production enterprise inventory is 18.06 tons, a weekly increase of 26.74%; oil - based daily production profit is - 178 yuan per ton; the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products has increased by 0.5% week - on - week [9] - LLDPE supply is expected to remain at a high level, downstream factory restocking is phased, and the market price is weak [9] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1347 yuan per ton, oscillating weakly recently; weekly soda ash output is 74.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%; soda ash manufacturer total inventory is 186.51 tons, a weekly increase of 3.86%; float glass operating rate is 75.19%, a weekly increase of 0.19%; the national average price of float glass is 1199 yuan per ton, a day - on - day decrease of 1 yuan per ton; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 6184.7 ten - thousand weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 3.95% [10] - Float glass production is stable, inventory has increased, and the domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The change of Fed officials will strengthen the future loose - policy orientation, which is positive for gold, but the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is negative for safe - haven assets. The rise of gold price may be supported by central bank gold purchases, and its future trend needs further observation [1]. - The soda ash market is generally weak, with glass demand support being inadequate. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short - sell on a short - term basis [2]. - Iron ore supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is expected to remain range - bound. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on pullbacks [4]. - Coking coal fundamentals have no prominent short - term contradictions and can support the price, with the price expected to fluctuate narrowly [4]. - Rebar prices are supported by cost but restricted by weak demand. The market is in a fierce long - short game, and the price may fluctuate and adjust [5]. - The pig market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to trade the LH2509 contract in a range or go long on the LH2511 contract in the long - term, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. - Domestic soybeans have a firm spot price. Short - term long trading is recommended [8]. - Silver is expected to fluctuate upward due to the increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut [8]. - The bond market has short - term upward momentum, and a strategy of short - selling at important resistance levels is recommended [8]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: The change of Fed officials and central bank gold purchases are positive factors, while the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is negative. The future trend needs further observation [1]. - **Silver**: The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut make silver fluctuate upward [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The market is weak, with glass demand support being insufficient. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, and short - selling on a short - term basis is an option [2]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol starts at a high level, with port inventory increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended [9]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply is abundant, and the market faces shipment pressure. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, and short - selling on rebounds is an option [10]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are stable, and the price is expected to range - bound. Going long on pullbacks is recommended [4]. - **Coking Coal**: Fundamentals have no prominent short - term contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [4]. - **Rebar**: Cost supports the price, but demand is weak. The price may fluctuate and adjust [5]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Different trading and hedging strategies are recommended [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and waiting and seeing is advisable [7]. - **Soybean**: Domestic soybeans have a firm spot price, and short - term long trading is recommended [8]. Others - **Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds**: The bond market has short - term upward momentum, and short - selling at important resistance levels is recommended [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal support its price in the short - term, with prices expected to fluctuate [1]. - Gold is in a high - level oscillation, with a low probability of exceeding the previous high and a slightly bearish mid - term outlook [1]. - Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but there is a risk of correction if demand is insufficient [3]. - The supply - demand gap of ferrosilicon is expected to be filled, and prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - The pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short - term [4]. - Rapeseed meal prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [4]. - The palm oil market in Malaysia has a bearish fundamental outlook, and investors are advised to wait and see [5]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Soda ash prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term, and short - selling on rebounds is an option [7]. - Silver shows a slightly bullish oscillating trend [7]. - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Bond markets have upward momentum in the short - term, and observation is advised [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants is 36.2%, a 1.19% week - on - week increase; the daily output of clean coal is 260,000 tons, a 6,000 - ton increase; and the clean coal inventory is 2.881 million tons, a 21,000 - ton increase [1]. - After the fifth round of coke price hikes, coke enterprises' profits are further repaired, and the demand for coking coal remains [1]. Gold - Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [1]. - The expectation of a September interest rate cut increases, the US dollar falls, and gold oscillates at a high level but lacks upward momentum [1]. Rebar - On August 6, the domestic steel market fluctuated strongly, with the price of Tangshan Qian'an billets rising by 10 yuan to 3,090 yuan/ton, and 4 steel mills raising the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - The rise in coking coal futures stimulates the black futures and drives the steel price to stop falling and rebound [3]. Ferrosilicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 33.76%, a 0.43% week - on - week increase; the daily output is 14,925 tons, a 2.12% (310 - ton) increase [3]. - Steel output is high, but the ferrosilicon supply - demand gap is expected to be filled due to increased production [3]. Pig - On August 6, the national average wholesale price of pork increased by 1.7% to 20.67 yuan/kg, and the egg price decreased by 0.8% to 7.54 yuan/kg [4]. - The pig market has a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short - term [4]. Rapeseed Meal - On August 6, the total transaction volume of rapeseed meal in major domestic oil mills was 2,000 tons, with different average prices in different regions [4]. - Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is declining, imports are low, and prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term [4]. Palm Oil - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month, with a 19.32% decrease in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.39% increase in oil extraction rate [5]. - In July 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 9.01% to 1.84 million tons [5]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China's drawn - grade polypropylene is 7,069 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate is 78.22%, a 0.56% increase; the downstream average operating rate is 48.4%, a 0.03 - percentage - point decrease [6]. - Polypropylene supply is abundant, and commercial inventory is expected to remain high in the short - term [6]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,347 yuan/ton, showing a weakening trend; the weekly output is 699,800 tons, a 3.32% decrease; the total inventory of manufacturers is 1.7958 million tons, a 3.69% decrease [7]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly adjusted, with high - price resistance and tepid demand [7]. Silver - Fed official Daly signaled a possible interest rate cut, increasing the market's expectation of a September rate cut [7]. - The US dollar index falls, and silver shows a slightly bullish oscillating trend [7]. Methanol - The port inventory of Chinese methanol is 925,500 tons, a 117,100 - ton increase; the production enterprise inventory is 293,700 tons, a 30,800 - ton decrease; the order backlog is 240,800 tons, a 10,100 - ton increase [8]. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - On August 7, the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined at the beginning of the session [9]. - Bond markets have upward momentum in the short - term [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities, including predictions on price trends and trading suggestions [1][3][4]. Summaries by Commodity 1. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national heavy - quality soda ash mainstream price is 1353 yuan/ton, with recent weak oscillations. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 1370 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [1]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol starts at a high level and continues to rise. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 2485 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **PX**: PX supply and demand turns marginally weaker. It is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by increased domestic supply and decreased demand [12]. 2. Metals - **Gold**: The US economic downward pressure increases, but the global economy recovers. The dollar index has weak rebound momentum, which is bullish for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will remain in a high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish mid - term trend [1]. - **Silver**: Trump criticizes the Fed again, increasing market risk appetite. The dollar index has weak rebound momentum, and silver oscillates bullishly [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume rebounds. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is fair, but the supply - demand relationship may become looser in the long - term. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4]. - **Rebar**: High cost and low demand compete, and the steel price may oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [4]. 3. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on OPEC+ production cuts and US sanctions on Russia. The international crude oil price is under pressure and is expected to be weak in the short - term [11]. 4. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: The short - term market maintains a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term or long - term layout of LH2511 long positions [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic spot fundamentals are weak, but there is limited downward space in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see if it can break through the previous high of 9106 yuan/ton [8]. 5. Others - **Plastic**: LLDPE production enterprises' inventory decreases, and the price decline slows down. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 7390 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic downward pressure increases, and liquidity eases, which is bullish for the short - end bond market. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic [9]. - **Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The policy is positive, but the stock market recovers, and the bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw [10]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply - demand of rubber is expected to be tight throughout the year. The rubber price is expected to continue to rebound in the short - term [13].