Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not improved significantly, and the upside of the futures market is limited [1]. - Gold may experience a short - term correction, with a mid - term high - level oscillation pattern, and the divergence between gold and silver may occur [1]. - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 2250 level [3]. - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 1190 level [4]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term under the current tight - balance supply - demand situation [5]. - The short - term supply - demand pattern of live pigs is supply - strong and demand - weak, and 09 - 01 contract reverse spread and hedging sales are recommended [6]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [6]. - Domestic soybeans are expected to maintain a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [7]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate widely with a slightly bullish trend in the medium term [7]. - Silver may face short - term correction pressure and then oscillate with a slightly bullish trend [8]. - PVC is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 4750 level for the 09 contract [8]. - Crude oil prices are supported in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - Rubber is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level in the short term [10]. - PTA supply - demand is turning weaker, and it is recommended to wait and see for the right time when crude oil weakens [11]. 3. Summaries by Product Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 75.36% (- 0.30%), coke daily output is 66.52 (- 0.27), coke inventory is 127.01 (+ 15.63), coking coal inventory is 818.92 (- 27.41), and coking coal available days are 9.3 (- 0.27 days) [1]. - Coking enterprises are in a state of small profit or slight loss, and the market has started the third round of price cuts [1]. Gold - Fed official's remarks reduce the expectation of Fed rate cuts, the US dollar index rebounds, and gold experiences a short - term correction [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2315 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), port inventory is 58.1 tons (+ 5.8 tons), production enterprise inventory is 37.05 tons (+ 1.55 tons), and orders to be delivered are 26.22 tons (+ 1.23 tons) [3]. - Methanol operating rate is 88.14% (+ 0.88%), and downstream capacity utilization is 72.96% (+ 1.83%) [3]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1375 yuan/ton (+ 3 yuan/ton), weekly output is 70.41 tons (+ 2.77%), and manufacturer inventory is 162.7 tons (+ 0.17%) [4]. - Float glass operating rate is 75.68% (- 0.34%), average price is 1206 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton), and inventory is 6975.4 million heavy - boxes (+ 3.09%) [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14400.31 tons (- 69.27 tons), and daily port clearance volume is 329.06 tons (- 9.72 tons) [5]. - Overseas supply growth is lower than expected, and some mines may increase shipments at the end of the fiscal or quarterly period [5]. Live Pigs - As of June 6, the average slaughter weight is 124.12 kg (- 0.01 kg), and the weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.01% (- 0.76%) [6]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is 39.5 yuan/head (+ 3.39 yuan/head), and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 94.98 yuan/head (+ 3.21 yuan/head) [6]. Palm Oil - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.09% [6]. - The domestic price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is more inverted, and the spot basis is stable with a downward trend [6]. Soybeans - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales volume has reached 64% of the expected output, and for the next year, producers have pre - sold 10.8% of the expected output [7]. - Domestic soybeans are affected by tight supply and weak demand, with a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend [7]. Treasury Bonds - From January to April, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the operating income reached 25.8 trillion yuan [7]. - The bond market may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Silver - In May, the non - farm payrolls increased by 13.9 million, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [8]. - The short - term bullish sentiment for silver has weakened [8]. PVC - The capacity utilization rate is 80.72% (+ 2.53%), and social inventory is 58.88 tons (- 1.48%) [8]. - The average gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC producers is - 426 yuan/ton (+ 121 yuan/ton), and that of ethylene - based producers is - 520 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [8]. Crude Oil - As of June 6, the number of US oil drilling platforms decreased by 19 to 442 [9]. - Geopolitical factors and low inventory support oil prices in the short term [9]. Rubber - Supply is expected to increase, and demand shows no signs of improvement [10]. - Rubber has experienced three consecutive rounds of inventory reduction [10]. PTA - PX CFR is reported at 825 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N spread is 262 US dollars/ton [11]. - The PTA industry load is rising, and polyester inventory remains high [11].

邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦炭】河北天津等地钢厂针对焦炭价格下调进行了 提降，幅度湿熄焦炭下调70元/吨、干熄焦炭下调75元/吨。此 次幅度是基于湿熄50元/吨，干熄55元/吨的基础上，增加了先 前预计下调的20元基价得来。评：预计6日将顺利落地，焦企利 润受损，预计多数将达盈亏平衡线。原料煤保持小幅下降，相 较之前降幅缩小，下游钢厂采购情绪偏差。预计短期有望止 跌，中期弱势尚未逆转，关注反弹做空机会，获利可适时止 盈，注意仓位管理。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1372元/吨，环比上 日-6元/吨；纯碱周产量70.41万吨，环比+2.77%；纯碱厂家总 库存162.7万吨，环比上升0.17%；浮法玻璃开工率75.68%，周 度-0.34%；全国浮法玻璃均价1209元/吨，环比上日-2元/吨； 全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6975.4万重箱， ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍 生制品的关税从25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时间 2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美国从英国进口的钢铝关 税仍将维持在25%。评：避险情绪再度增加，利多黄金，但是美 元指数大幅反弹，有所抵消。地缘政治和关税博弈变数增加， 避险需求增加，黄金短期偏多。黄金中期依然高位震荡对待， 关注关税矛盾是否进一步激化。 【短评-橡胶】泰国胶水大跌，下跌4.75泰铢/公斤至56.5 泰铢/公斤；版纳原料下跌，制干胶胶水下跌0.1-0.2元/公斤至 12.5-12.6元/公斤，制浓乳胶水下跌0.1元/公斤至12.8-12.9元 /公斤；海南原料持稳。割胶工作还未完全恢复，原料产出偏 紧，国营胶水收购价为13900元/吨，民营胶水收购价为14900- 15300元/吨；截至2025年5月29日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利 用率为72.51%，环比-1.23个百分点，同比-7.58个百分点；中 国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为60.80%，环比-1.29个百分点， 同比-4.40个百分点。评：国内现货价格持续走低，带动原料价 格整体下滑 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the upper pressure of the 09 contract is around 1000. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [2][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of domestic float glass is on a downward trend, with weak overall demand. Due to the rainy season in the South, the market trading is poor. Some enterprises offer discounts to promote sales, and the market price continues to decline. In the Shahe area, factory shipments are average, and dealers mainly sell inventory. The Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan market performs okay, but there are differences in the shipment of different manufacturers. The focus of the East China market has declined slightly, with weak demand and the impact of low - priced glass from the periphery. Most enterprises in the South are mainly focused on shipping due to high inventory [8] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply - side Analysis - Expected Supply Decline**: As of May 29, the national float glass output was 1.1041 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. The average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.68%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.34 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.42 percentage points. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 167.97 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was 100.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15.67 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke was - 107.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton [12] - **Demand - side Analysis - Weak Orders from Deep - processing Enterprises**: As of May 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to April 2025, the cumulative real - estate completion area was 156.4785 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. In April 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points. The manufacturing PMI in April was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [14][15] - **Inventory Analysis - Slight Inventory Reduction of Float Glass Enterprises**: As of May 29, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 107,000 weight boxes and a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%, a year - on - year increase of 14.06%. The inventory days were 30.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period. The overall shipment in North China was average, and the inventory in East China increased slightly [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of May 30, the total long - position volume of the top 20 members in glass futures was 910,353, a decrease of 57,489; the total short - position volume was 1,122,204, a decrease of 69,731. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the upper pressure of the 09 contract is around 1000. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [23]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand relationship of soda ash is expected to be loose. The price of soda ash is predicted to be weak with fluctuations in the near term. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is 1235. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3) Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market weakened steadily, with prices declining slightly. There was a lack of positive support in the market, and the futures price adjusted at a low level. At the beginning of the week, some enterprises lowered prices due to increased supply. Towards the weekend, the news of Alxa's maintenance eased the industry sentiment, and the market was in a cautious wait - and - see mode [8]. - The weekly domestic soda ash production was 685,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,200 tons or 3.19%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises were less than 9 days, showing a downward trend [8]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply Side Analysis - Supply Expected to Increase Slightly**: As of May 29, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The expected capacity utilization rate this week is over 79%. The theoretical profit of the soda ash by the dual - ton soda ash method was 215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was 67.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.75% [11]. - **Demand Side Analysis - Downstream Demand of Soda Ash Expected to be Weakly Stable**: As of May 29, there were 102 in - production kilns for photovoltaic glass, with a daily melting volume of 98,780 tons. The industry inventory days increased by 0.58 days. There were no new kiln investment or cold - repair plans this week, and the supply is expected to remain stable. The production of float glass was 1.1041 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. Due to the expected water storage of production lines, the weekly output is expected to decline [15]. - **Inventory Analysis - Inventory of Soda Ash Enterprises Expected to Remain High**: As of May 29, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons or 3.13%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 818,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 806,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons [18]. 2.2 Position Analysis As of May 30, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 994,153, a decrease of 29,228, and the short positions were 1,238,089, a decrease of 35,074. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current production of soda ash is stable at a high level with average profit, and the production is expected to increase slightly this week. The downstream demand of soda ash is expected to be weakly stable. The production of float glass is expected to decline, while the supply of photovoltaic glass remains stable, and the inventory continues to rise. Under the expected loose supply - demand situation, it is difficult for the high - level inventory of soda ash enterprises to continue to decline [22]. - The price of soda ash is expected to be weak with fluctuations in the near term. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is 1235. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply side is facing a double - negative situation of "theoretical supply pressure increase" and "high live - animal inventory". The demand side is expected to weaken seasonally with only limited increase around the Dragon Boat Festival. Overall, the spot price is likely to adjust weakly. For trading, a short - selling strategy is recommended for near - term contracts, while long - buying opportunities on dips can be considered for far - term contracts. The reverse spread strategy of LH2509 - LH2601 contracts should be continuously monitored [2][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis - The live - animal inventory is shifting from "accumulation" to "reduction", but the overall average weight of slaughtered pigs remains high, and there is no significant increase in slaughter volume, indicating slow inventory reduction. From October 2024 to March 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased by 7% year - on - year, suggesting a significant increase in pig slaughter from April to September [21]. 2. Demand Situation Analysis - As the weather gets hotter, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. Although there may be some increase in demand around the Dragon Boat Festival, the increase is limited based on the current market situation [2][21]. 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - The report mentions figures related to self - breeding and self - raising profit per head and profit per head from purchasing piglets, but no specific analysis of cost - profit is provided in the given text. 4. Market Outlook - The analysis of supply and demand is consistent with the previous parts. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach for near - term contracts and look for long - buying opportunities on dips for far - term contracts. Continue to focus on the reverse spread strategy of LH2509 - LH2601 contracts, and investors should pay close attention to factors such as the slaughter rhythm of the breeding side, demand changes, policy orientation, and epidemics [2][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated downward, with the average national rebar price dropping by 58 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by weak macro real - estate data, market sentiment was pessimistic. The seasonal inflection point of construction steel demand has emerged, demand has entered a downward channel, supply - side production remains high, inventory depletion has slowed down, and prices have generally declined. The overall operating logic of the steel market is still the continuous price decline caused by cost collapse, and the current price still faces significant downward pressure [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated downward this week, with the average national rebar price dropping by 58 yuan/ton week - on - week. Due to weak macro real - estate data, market sentiment was pessimistic. The seasonal inflection point of construction steel demand has occurred, demand has entered a downward channel, supply - side production remains high, inventory depletion has slowed down, and prices have generally declined [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industry News - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's overall economic output continued to expand [6]. - US President Trump announced on May 30 (local time) that the tariff on imported steel would be raised from 25% to 50%, effective June 4 [7]. - The Office of the US Trade Representative extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China's technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation - related behaviors, policies, and practices from May 31, 2025, to August 31, 2025 [7]. - From January to April, driven by the automobile replacement subsidy policy, automobile production reached 10.12 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; the automobile industry's revenue was 3.2552 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%; costs were 2.8636 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%; and profits were 132.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [7]. - In June, the production plan for household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year; the production plan for refrigerators was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year; and the production plan for washing machines was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual production in the same period last year [7]. - As of May 30, 5.3 million tons of coking plant production capacity had been shut down in Shandong Province. By the end of June 2025, the province's coking plant production capacity is expected to be reduced to about 33 million tons, a total reduction of about 10 million tons [7]. - From May 19 to May 25, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 14.174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 411,000 tons, showing a slight inventory build - up, and the current inventory has reached the highest level since the beginning of the year [8]. - In May, major Chinese cities continued the trend of a structural increase in new - home prices and a decline in second - hand home prices. The average price of new residential buildings in 100 Chinese cities was 16,815 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 2.56% [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to a survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 101,700 tons, higher than last week's 95,300 tons. The trading of low - priced resources improved, pre - holiday stockpiling increased, and market pessimism eased [11]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The US tariff policy is still volatile, but the overall macro environment is bearish. In June, the weak demand for steel is expected to continue due to hot and rainy weather and the approaching high - school and college entrance exams. Under the situation of low demand and low efficiency, steel mills are increasing production control, which will also suppress raw material prices. The steel market's operating logic is still price decline due to cost collapse, and although the short - term valuation is low, the downward pressure on prices remains high [33]. - The black - series futures continued to decline. The main coking coal contract fell more than 10% this week, coke fell more than 6%, rebar and hot - rolled coil fell between 3% - 4%, and iron ore fell 2.84%. The main rebar contract closed at 2,961, down 10 points for the day, 85 points lower than last week's closing price, and the weekly settlement price was 2,982, down 81 points. The latest position was 2.296 million lots, an increase of 138,000 lots from last Friday, showing a pattern of increasing positions and falling prices. After breaking below the 3,000 - point mark on the weekly chart, it is difficult to return to this level, and the weekly moving averages are diverging downward. The reference operating range is 2,860 - 3,050 [33]. - Investment strategies: For single - sided trading, combine shorting at high levels with range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ production increases strengthen the expectation of a rise in global crude oil supply. If OPEC+ continues to increase production, the global crude oil market may be in a long - term supply surplus, intensifying the current imbalance between supply and demand and putting long - term downward pressure on oil prices. Long - term attention should be paid to the implementation of OPEC+ production increases. Short - term factors such as Ukraine's attacks on Russian air bases, Canadian wildfires, and low inventory levels support oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [2][6][33] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil oscillated. SC2507 opened at 451 for the week, reached a high of 468, a low of 461, and closed at 447, down 4.9 or 1.08% for the week. The 07 contract also oscillated [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC - In April, OPEC's total crude oil production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 26.71 million barrels per day, and the total production of "OPEC+" countries decreased by 106,000 barrels per day to 40.92 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan's oil production in April decreased by 41,000 barrels per day to 1.82 million barrels per day. The IEA raised its 2025 total oil supply forecast from 104.2 million barrels per day to 104.6 million barrels per day, and adjusted the 2026 global oil supply growth forecast from 960,000 barrels per day to 970,000 barrels per day, and the 2026 total oil supply forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 105.6 million barrels per day. On May 31, 2025, eight OPEC+ member countries decided to increase daily oil production by 411,000 barrels starting from July, which is the third consecutive month of supply expansion of the same scale since May. The alliance said the increase is based on a stable global economy and a healthy market, and it will adjust the supply rhythm dynamically according to the seasonal peak demand in the third quarter and reserve the right to "suspend or reverse the production increase" [5] 2.2 Russia - Russia, the second - largest oil producer in OPEC+, relies on a wartime economy for economic growth. President Putin estimated that Russia's GDP grew by 3.9% in 2024. Russia's crude oil production in 2024 was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In March 2025, its crude oil production dropped from 9.08 million barrels per day in February to 9.07 million barrels per day, still higher than the OPEC+ quota of 8.98 million barrels per day. However, OPEC data showed that in March, Russia's crude oil production further decreased to 8.963 million barrels per day. According to Russia's new energy strategy, its crude oil production is expected to stabilize at 540 million metric tons per year (10.8 million barrels per day) by 2050. The second - round Russia - Ukraine negotiation was held in Istanbul, Turkey on June 2, 2025. Ukraine claimed to have caused $7 billion in losses to Russia through the "Spider Web" operation. The Russian delegation brought a memorandum draft and other cease - fire proposals to the negotiation. Ukraine stated it would not compromise on territorial issues [7][8] 2.3 United States - As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.401 million barrels per day, an increase of 9,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 4 to 461, the fifth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level in three and a half years. The EIA predicted that US crude oil production in 2025 would be 13.51 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 13.61 million barrels per day, and the 2026 production would be 13.56 million barrels per day, previously estimated at 13.76 million barrels per day [9] 2.4 Americas' Production Increase - OPEC said that in 2025, the supply from non - OPEC+ countries would increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day. The IEA maintained its 2025 non - OPEC+ supply growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and lowered the 2026 non - OPEC+ supply growth forecast from 920,000 barrels per day to 820,000 barrels per day [16] 2.5 Inventory - OPEC reported that in March 2025, the total OECD oil and crude oil product inventory was 3.996 billion barrels, a decrease of 13.41 million barrels from the previous quarter and an increase of 130,000 barrels from the same period last year. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US total crude oil inventory was 842 million barrels, a decrease of 1.975 million barrels (- 0.23%) from the previous week; strategic crude oil inventory was 401 million barrels, an increase of 820,000 barrels (+ 0.20%); commercial crude oil inventory was 440 million barrels, a decrease of 2.795 million barrels (- 0.63%); and Cushing crude oil inventory was 23.51 million barrels, an increase of 75,000 barrels (+ 0.32%) [17] 2.6 Consumption - OPEC predicted that global oil demand would increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, higher than the IEA's estimate of 741,000 barrels per day. The IEA raised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 726,000 barrels per day to 741,000 barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 692,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day, and predicted that the average global oil demand in 2026 would reach 104.7 million barrels per day. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.328 million barrels per day, a decrease of 162,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery utilization rate was 90.20%, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous week. On May 16, US refined oil processing fees were $174 per ton, and Asian refinery processing fees were low at $187 per ton. In the week of May 16, the profit of Shandong independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 335 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton from the previous week and 30 yuan per ton from the same period last year. On May 16, the profit of major refineries was 751 yuan per ton, an increase of 310 yuan per ton from the previous week. In April, the US refinery utilization rate was 88.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the European utilization rate was 81.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10% [20][24][25] 2.6 Geopolitics - On May 23, Iran and the US started the fifth - round indirect nuclear negotiation in Rome, Italy, mediated by Oman. US President Trump said there was a "very good dialogue" with Iran, but the Iranian Foreign Minister downplayed the progress. Oman's Foreign Minister said the negotiation "made some but not decisive progress." On May 31, Oman's Foreign Minister visited Iran to introduce the US negotiation proposal. The US insists that Iran should completely stop all levels of uranium enrichment activities, while Iran emphasizes that moderate uranium enrichment is part of its right to peaceful use of nuclear energy and is willing to sign a nuclear agreement if the US lifts sanctions. Hamas in Palestine announced its willingness to start a new round of cease - fire negotiations in the Gaza Strip, and Qatar and Egypt will continue to work for a cease - fire agreement [30][32] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Long - term attention should be paid to OPEC+ production increase implementation. Short - term trading is recommended due to short - term supporting factors [33]

双焦期货周度报告 2025年06月03日 上游持续累库 双焦价格下行 摘 要： 行情回顾：焦炭累积降价两轮100-110元/吨。终端对于炼焦 煤采购节奏放缓，焦钢以去库为主，只维持刚需采购，对原料煤 保持较强的压价意图，而贸易商投机意愿冰冷，降价压力向煤矿 传导顺畅，国内各煤种价格普遍下跌50-150元/吨。 基本面分析：供应端，个别煤矿因事故和检修、产量有所下 滑，另有部分煤矿受库存及亏损压力有减产行为，但主产地煤矿 多数维持正常生产，焦煤产量整体高位维稳。进口方面，甘其毛 都口岸日均通关增加112车，维持高位；澳媒价格坚挺，进口性价 比暂无。需求端，焦炭产量仍维持高位，但提降周期内焦企原料 补库积极性下降，焦煤上游库存压力加剧，流拍现象仍未好转。 总体上，当前焦煤市场供需仍趋宽松。 投资策略：单边：逢高做空与区间操作相结合 跨期套利： 观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short-term palm oil prices will fluctuate within a range, and a high-sell and low-buy strategy should be maintained while keeping an eye on international biodiesel policies, high-frequency supply and demand data, and domestic inventory changes [2][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Palm Oil Price Market Review - Reviewed the palm oil average price trend [4] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - Analyzed China's palm oil import data [6] 3. Demand Situation Analysis - Analyzed the palm oil transaction average price and trading volume statistics [8][9] 4. Cost and Profit Analysis - Analyzed the palm oil import cost and profit [11] 5. Market Outlook - In March, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 213,000 tons to 2 million tons compared to February, a 38% decrease from the same period last year. The total palm oil production in March increased by 7% year-on-year to 4.8 million tons, with crude palm oil (CPO) production increasing by 289,000 tons to 4.4 million tons and palm kernel oil (PKO) production increasing by 26,000 tons to 417,000 tons [13] - Malaysia's latest palm oil production growth rate decreased month-on-month, while its export growth rate increased month-on-month, which supports palm oil prices [13][14] - In the domestic market, the spot price spread between soybean oil and palm oil has been inverted. There is a shortage of spot goods in some markets with few quotes, and downstream buyers are making purchases based on rigid demand, resulting in a slight increase in trading volume [14]