Report Information - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The liquidity is expected to remain loose in the second half of the year, which may intensify the short - term fluctuations in the bond market and increase the difficulty of bond market operations. The Chinese economy shows resilience, but there is still downward pressure, and counter - cyclical adjustments need to be continuously strengthened [2][3][16] Chapter 1: Market Review - Key Point: The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average. Although the logic becomes less obvious under the background of loose liquidity, it remains the main logic in the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Key Point 1: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage and keep liquidity abundant. It has carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations this month, and there is a possibility of increasing the volume of MLF renewal [13] - Key Point 2: Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a guidance on financial support for new industrialization, aiming to build a mature financial system by 2027 [15] - Key Point 3: The US has suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days since August 12, 2025, while retaining a 10% tariff [15] - Key Point 4: In July, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% [15] - Key Point 5: In July, M2 increased by about 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by about 5.6% year - on - year, and M0 increased by about 11.8% year - on - year [15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - Key Point: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2. Although the economy shows certain resilience, the economic downward pressure has increased, and counter - cyclical adjustments need to be strengthened [16] 3.2 Policy Aspect - Key Point: As of the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The growth rate of social financing stock was 9%, and the new social financing in the month was 1.16 trillion yuan, mainly driven by government bond issuance [18] 3.3 Capital Aspect - Key Point: The cost of funds has decreased since July 25. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is low, but monetary easing remains an option if necessary [20] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - Key Point: The state will implement the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year. The special national debt has supported equipment renewal with 2000 billion yuan, and the issuance of special bonds has accelerated. The market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [23] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - Key Point: The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. The short - end bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while the long - end bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Key Point: The loose liquidity in the second half of the year may strengthen the stock market fluctuations and the short - term fluctuations in the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic and the loose liquidity logic make the bond market operations more difficult [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, building material prices first rose and then declined. The average national rebar price decreased by 10 yuan/ton week-on-week. Terminal demand remained weak, and inventory accumulation increased, limiting the price rebound. On the supply side, driven by high profits, resumption and production increase continued. On the demand side, the market gradually calmed down, expectations cooled, and actual terminal demand weakened [2][4]. - In the short term, the supply - demand pressure in the steel market has increased. With the cooling of the speculation sentiment in the "double - coke" futures, steel prices may fluctuate weakly. Considering the possible production restrictions in northern steel mills at the end of August and beginning of September, the supply - demand pressure in the steel market may ease, and the price fluctuation range may be limited. The long - short game remains intense [28]. Summary of Each Section 1. This Week's Market Review - Building material prices first rose and then declined. The average national rebar price decreased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. Terminal demand was weak and inventory accumulation increased, limiting the price rebound. The supply side continued to resume production and increase production due to high profits, while the demand side cooled down and actual terminal demand weakened [2][4]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - On August 12, China and the US issued a joint statement on economic and trade talks. The US promised to continue adjusting tariff measures on Chinese goods, and both sides continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [6]. - On August 15, US President Trump and Russian President Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine issue and Russia - US relations. The meeting was considered "constructive" and "fruitful" but no agreement was reached [6]. - Nine departments issued an implementation plan for the loan interest subsidy policy for service industry business entities, with a subsidy period of no more than 1 year and an annual subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point [6]. - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 28.8229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0%. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, it was 28.4238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [7]. - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%, and the new RMB loans were - 5 billion yuan (the first negative growth since July 2005) [7]. - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a 4.7% increase in daily output month - on - month; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month; 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a 4.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.68 million tons, a 4.7% month - on - month increase; the daily output of pig iron was 2.33 million tons, a 3.2% month - on - month increase; and the daily output of steel was 4.13 million tons, a 0.7% month - on - month increase [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 102,300 tons, lower than last week's 103,400 tons. Due to the hot and rainy weather and the ongoing adjustment of the real estate market, the weak demand for steel is difficult to change, and the supply - demand pressure has increased [11]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - In the short term, the supply - demand pressure in the steel market has increased, and steel prices may fluctuate weakly. Considering the possible production restrictions in northern steel mills at the end of August and beginning of September, the supply - demand pressure may ease, and the price fluctuation range may be limited. The long - short game remains fierce. - From the perspective of the market, black commodities showed mixed performance on Friday. The main contracts of coking coal, coke and hot - rolled coil closed slightly higher, while rebar and iron ore closed slightly lower. The main rebar 10 contract closed at 3188, down 13 points on the day, 25 points lower than last week's closing. The weekly settlement price was 3222, up 7 points from last week. The latest position was 1.6117 million lots, an increase of 0.5 million lots compared with last Friday. Overall, the position change this week was not obvious. After 2.1 billion yuan of funds fled from coking coal for two consecutive days, rebar also had a certain position reduction. Both long and short sides were unable to launch a large - scale market, and some funds flowed to the 01 contract and other varieties. Currently, the weekly line shows obvious oscillation characteristics, running in a state of "pressure above and support below" for two consecutive weeks. Next week, 3200 can be used as the long - short demarcation point. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Go long at a low level; Medium - term: Bullish [2] Core View - In August, the supply of pork was sufficient as the group farms had a poor slaughter rhythm, while second - fattening farmers and small farmers were highly motivated to sell. The demand was still in the off - season, but low - price pork stimulated consumption, with an increase in the purchase volume of slaughter enterprises and a slight improvement in product sales, yet it was not enough to drive up prices. Suggestions for operation were to go long at a low level, pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss, with the first support level of the LH2511 contract at 13,700. Farmers were advised to sell for hedging according to their slaughter rhythm [2][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply Situation Analysis - Relevant charts include the monthly trend chart of the inventory of breeding sows in sample enterprises (in ten thousand heads) and the weekly trend chart of the average slaughter weight of commercial pigs nationwide (in kilograms) [5][7] 2. Demand Situation Analysis - Relevant charts include the开工率 of key slaughter enterprises (in %), the inventory structure of commercial pigs by weight (in %), and the frozen product storage rate of key slaughter enterprises (in %) [11][13][14] 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - Relevant charts include the self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit (in yuan per head) and the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening (in yuan per head) [16][18] 4. Market Outlook - The supply was sufficient in August, and the demand was in the off - season with a slight improvement. Operation suggestions were to go long at a low level, pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss, and farmers were advised to sell for hedging according to their slaughter rhythm [20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The current coal - coke market is oscillating due to cost support, emotional resilience, and a weak supply - demand balance. Without new negative factors, coal prices may continue to oscillate [1]. - After the US - Russia talks, the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold is expected to be oscillating with a downward bias in the medium term [1]. - Due to the off - season of high temperature and heavy rain and the sluggish real estate market, the steel market's supply - demand pressure has increased in the short term, and steel prices may oscillate weakly. However, the supply - demand pressure may ease around late August and early September, and the price movement range may be limited [3]. - The supply of iron ore may increase, demand may slightly rise, and the inventory may slightly decrease. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The significant increase in US sales data and PPI has led to a revision of the expected interest - rate cut, but the probability of a September rate cut remains above 80%. The falling US dollar index supports precious metals, and silver is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [4]. - The short - term supply of live pigs exceeds demand. It is recommended to go long at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. Pig farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [4]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and affected by the plantation investigation in Indonesia, palm oil prices have broken through previous highs. The domestic market shows high - level oscillation [5]. - The short - term spot price of soybean meal will experience a phased correction, while the medium - to - long - term price center will gradually rise [7]. - The domestic soda ash market price is oscillating at a low level, with high supply and tepid demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - The domestic methanol market has high - level inventory accumulation. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8]. - For short - term national bonds, it is recommended to go long on short - term bonds and short long - term bonds. National bonds are expected to oscillate with a downward bias [9]. - The polypropylene market is in weak consolidation, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - Crude oil has no upward momentum in the short term and should be treated with a downward - oscillating view [11]. - The supply - demand situation of PX has a marginal weakening. PX prices are expected to oscillate with a downward bias [12]. - The asphalt market's supply is stable, but demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and funding shortages. The overall fundamentals have weakened [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 74.34% (+0.31%), daily coke output is 65.38 (+0.28), coke inventory is 62.51 (-7.22), coking coal total inventory is 976.88 (-11.04), and coking coal available days are 11.2 days (-0.18 days) [1]. Metals - **Rebar**: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 83.59% (-0.16 ppts), blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization is 90.22% (+0.13 ppts), steel mill profitability is 65.8% (-2.60 ppts), and daily hot - metal output is 240.66 tons (+0.34 tons, +11.89 tons YoY) [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13819.27 tons (+107.00 tons), daily port clearance volume is 334.67 tons (+12.82 tons), and the number of ships at ports is 93 (-12) [3]. - **Silver**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% MoM, and the year - on - year increase reached 3.9%. After inflation adjustment, the real retail sales increased by 1.2% YoY, achieving positive growth for ten consecutive months [4]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: As of August 15, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.23 kg (-0.09 kg), the weekly slaughter operating rate is 28.37% (+0.16%), the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 204.05 yuan/pig (-17.142.97 yuan/pig), the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 11.83 yuan/pig (-15.59 yuan/pig), and the price of piglets is 383.33 yuan/pig (-30.48 yuan/pig) [4]. - **Palm Oil**: From August 1 to 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be 724191 tons, a 16.5% increase compared to the same period last month [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of August 15, the inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises are 8.35 days (-0.02 days MoM, +9.21% YoY) [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash is 1326 yuan/ton, the weekly output is 76.13 tons (+2.24% WoW), the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 189.38 tons (+1.54% WoW), the operating rate of float glass is 75.34% (+0.15% WoW), the average price of national float glass is 1160 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton DoD), and the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 6342.6 million heavy - boxes (+2.55% WoW) [7]. - **Methanol**: The port sample inventory of Chinese methanol is 102.18 tons (+9.63 tons WoW), the sample production enterprise inventory is 29.56 tons (+0.19 tons WoW), the sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 21.94 tons (-2.14 tons WoW), the market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2325 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton), the methanol capacity utilization rate is 82.4% (+0.97% WoW), and the downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.36% (-0.34% WoW) [8]. - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East China stretch - grade polypropylene is 7051 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton), the polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 76.92% (-1.58% DoD), the average operating rate of downstream industries is 49.35% (+0.45 ppts WoW), the commercial inventory of polypropylene is 82.72 tons (-2.92 tons WoW), and the inventory of two major oil companies' polyolefins is 76.5 tons (-1 ton WoW) [9]. - **PX**: The load of the Chinese PX industry has increased by 3.2% to 84.3(+2.3)%, and the load of the Asian PX industry has increased by 0.2% to 73.6% [12]. - **Asphalt**: As of August 13, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises is 32.9% (+1.2% WoW). As of August 15, the weekly inventory of domestic asphalt is 58.5 tons (+3 tons WoW), the sample factory inventory is 71.1 tons (+3.2 tons WoW), and the domestic social inventory of asphalt is 134.3 tons (-2.4 tons WoW) [12]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of August 15, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 412, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week and a decrease of 71 compared to the same period last year [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The coke market is expected to continue its volatile and upward trend in the short term due to tight supply and strong demand [1]. - Gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but remain volatile and bearish in the medium term due to the strength of the US dollar [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with support from iron water demand and seasonal shipping lulls [3]. - Rebar prices may be volatile and weak in the short term due to weak demand and increased inventory [4]. - Treasury bonds are expected to have a short - term rebound but remain volatile and bearish in the medium term, with the stock - bond seesaw as the main logic [4]. - Silver is expected to have a short - term correction but remain volatile and bullish [5]. - The pig market has a short - term rebound expectation, but the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction [5]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short term, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions [6][7]. - Methanol is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - Soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - LLDPE is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Crude oil is expected to be volatile and weak, with market focus on the US - Russia negotiation [10]. - PTA follows the trend of crude oil, and there is pressure on the supply side [11]. - Rubber is expected to be volatile and bullish, with short - term supply support and improved demand expectations [11]. Summary by Variety Coke - On August 14, mainstream steel mills raised coke purchase prices. Coke prices have risen for six consecutive rounds. Some coking coal varieties have weakened, and coking enterprises' operating pressure has eased. Supply may tighten slightly, and demand remains strong. Coke supply is tight, and the market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [1]. Gold - US initial jobless claims decreased, and PPI increased significantly, strengthening the US dollar and pressuring precious metals. Gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but remain volatile and bearish in the medium term [1]. Iron Ore - From August 4 - 10, global iron ore shipments decreased. Iron water production decreased slightly, but demand remained resilient, and port inventory increased. Ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term, and it is recommended to operate within the range of the Iron Ore 2601 contract with a support level of 750 yuan/ton [3]. Rebar - As of August 14, rebar production decreased slightly, while factory and social inventories increased, and apparent demand decreased significantly. With weak demand and increased inventory, rebar prices may be volatile and weak in the short term [4]. Treasury Bonds - The central bank has increased liquidity injection, which supports the bond market. The bond market is currently affected by liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw, with a short - term rebound and medium - term bearish trend [4]. Silver - US PPI in July increased significantly, suppressing interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rebounded, pressuring precious metals. Silver may correct further in the short term but remains volatile and bullish [5]. Pig - On August 14, the national average pork price decreased slightly. Pig prices in different regions showed a mixed trend. There is a short - term rebound expectation, but supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction, with a support level of 13700 for the LH2511 contract [5]. Palm Oil - India's palm oil imports in July decreased. Affected by news and profit - taking of long - position funds, palm oil prices are expected to be high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions [6][7]. Methanol - Methanol port inventory increased, and the capacity utilization rate rose. The downstream demand was stable. Methanol is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a pressure level of 2465 for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - duty soda ash was volatile and weak. Production increased, and inventory rose. The float glass industry was stable, but inventory increased. Soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a pressure level of 1425 for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. LLDPE - The price of LLDPE increased slightly, production decreased, and enterprise inventory decreased. The downstream demand was general. LLDPE is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a pressure level of 7365 for the L2601 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Crude Oil - US refined oil demand increased year - on - year. OPEC + has increased production, and the IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts. The US - Russia meeting has uncertainty. Crude oil is expected to be volatile and weak, with market focus on the negotiation [10]. PTA - PTA supply pressure exists, and the downstream is the traditional peak season. However, polyester profit is poor, which may affect production enthusiasm. PTA follows the trend of crude oil [11]. Rubber - The price of rubber raw materials was stable. Tire capacity utilization showed differentiation. The supply side has short - term support, and demand expectations have improved. Rubber is expected to be volatile and bullish [11].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Rubber: With stronger raw material prices, improved demand expectations, and positive macro - factors, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Gold: Short - term rebound, but medium - term outlook is still bearish and oscillating. Attention should be paid to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold [2]. - Crude Oil: Expected to oscillate weakly. The outcome of the US - Russia negotiation on August 15 should be watched [4]. - PTA: Follows the crude oil trend and oscillates weakly due to supply pressure and uncertain downstream demand [5]. - Pig: Short - term over - optimism is not advisable, while long - term long positions in the LH2511 contract can be considered. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. - Palm Oil: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - Silver: Oscillates with a bullish bias as the probability of a September interest rate cut remains high [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: There is a continuous tug - of - war between bulls and bears in the market [9]. - Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds: Short - term bullish, but medium - term outlook is bearish and oscillating [9]. - Coking Coal: Short - term price correction space is limited, and subsequent coal production and downstream production cuts should be monitored [10]. - Ferrosilicon: Prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, but there are concerns about the medium - to - long - term fundamentals [10]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12]. - Plastic: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. - Glass: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [14]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices are rising, and Hainan's rubber collection is affected by rainfall. China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased, and demand expectations are improving. The Fed's potential interest rate cut also boosts the market [1]. Gold - The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike and the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict influence the gold market [2]. Crude Oil - The IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts, and the EIA reported an increase in US production and inventory. The US - Russia meeting may impact the geopolitical support for oil prices [4]. PTA - PTA device maintenance has increased, but the operating rate is expected to rise. Downstream polyester demand has uncertainties due to profit issues [5]. Pig - Pig prices are rising steadily with regional differences. Demand remains weak, and investment strategies vary in the short and long term [6]. Palm Oil - The USDA report shows stable production and export forecasts, with a slight decrease in consumption and inventory. Market sentiment is bullish in the short term [7]. Silver - Fed officials are trying to cool the interest - rate cut expectations, but a September cut is still likely, leading to a bullish outlook for silver [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply shortages may drive prices up, but demand - side substitution and other factors restrict price increases [9]. Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are falling, and the market may rebound in the short term, but the medium - term outlook is bearish [9]. Coking Coal - The production and inventory of washed coal are increasing, and downstream demand has support, but the market is in a wait - and - see state [10]. Ferrosilicon - The cost is supported, but production is increasing, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand relationship may become looser [10]. Methanol - Port inventory is accumulating, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Plastic - Supply pressure may ease, and the market is expected to oscillate with weak cost support [13]. Glass - Production is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is rising, with the market expected to oscillate [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The anti - dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseeds will reshape the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand pattern, with supply tightening and price rising. Short - term observation is recommended, and future trade policies should be monitored [2] - The pig price is stable and strong, with short - term range - bound fluctuations. It is recommended not to over - expect in the short - term and to long the LH2511 contract in the medium - to - long - term. Farmers can sell for hedging according to the出栏 rhythm [2] - The short - term bond market is bearish due to rising funds and stock market trends. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate downward [4] - Silver is expected to fluctuate upward due to inflation data and increased rate - cut expectations [4] - Gold is affected by conflicting factors, with increased rate - cut expectations being positive and the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict being negative. It is expected to fluctuate downward [4] - Palm oil prices are expected to be high - level range - bound due to good export data and positive news [5] - Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the 2601 contract [5] - Manganese silicon is expected to follow the sector's fluctuations, with cost support but increasing supply pressure [6] - Rebar prices are expected to be bullish in the short - term due to positive news [7] - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and observation is recommended [8] - LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and observation or short - selling on rebounds is recommended [9] - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and observation is recommended [10] Group 3: Summaries by Short - Comments Rapeseed Meal - China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting August 14. The final ruling will affect the deposit refund. The policy will reshape the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand pattern [2] Live Pigs - On August 12, the pork price at the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.26 yuan/kg, up 0.3%. The pig price is stable and strong, with short - term range - bound fluctuations [2] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end rates mostly rose. Rising funds and stock market trends are negative for short - term bonds [4] Silver - US inflation data in July was in line with expectations. Increased rate - cut expectations led to a weaker US dollar, and silver is expected to rise [4] Gold - Trump urged the Fed to cut rates and threatened to sue Powell. Increased rate - cut expectations are positive for gold, but the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is negative [4] Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 65.25% compared to the previous month. Positive factors are driving the price [5] Iron Ore - The inventory at 47 ports increased by 45.26 tons, and the daily discharge volume increased. Overseas mines are in the off - season, and prices are expected to be range - bound [5] Manganese Silicon - The capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 1.2%. Cost support is strong, but supply pressure is increasing [6] Rebar - On August 12, domestic steel prices continued to rise. Positive news is driving the price up in the short - term [7] Methanol - Northwest production enterprise orders decreased, port inventory increased, and production capacity utilization decreased. It is expected to fluctuate [8] Plastic (LLDPE) - LLDPE prices rose, production increased, and inventory rose. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - selling on rebounds is an option [9] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices were weak, production increased, and inventory rose. It is expected to fluctuate [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The market anticipates a significant increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, leading to a substantial rebound in the US dollar index, which is bearish for gold. The potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict also favors risk - assets and is negative for safe - haven assets like gold [1]. - Polypropylene开工率上升，整体供应充足，商业库存增加，预计PP 01合约短期震荡运行，上方压力7135一线 [1]. - Iron ore prices may oscillate and consolidate. Although global iron ore shipments are rising, attention should be paid to the expected reduction in hot metal production [3]. - Steel prices may fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term due to reduced supply expectations and rising factory prices, along with cost support [4]. - After consecutive price increases, coke production has rebounded, and the sixth round of price increases has started. Although there is resistance from steel mills, the raw material prices remain high, providing short - term support to the futures market [4]. - Pig prices are showing regional differences, with short - term supply pressure and weak demand. It is recommended to avoid over - optimism in the short term and consider long positions in the LH2511 contract in the medium - to - long term [5]. - Silver may fluctuate with an upward bias, and its continued correlation with gold needs further observation [5]. - Palm oil prices may experience high - level oscillations in the short term due to better - than - expected MPOB data and the influence of Indonesia's B50 news [6][7]. - Medium - and long - term treasury bonds may fluctuate with a downward bias. Although there is liquidity support, the economic resilience favors risk - assets [7]. - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short term, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [8]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure level at 2495. It is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure level at 1355. It is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 14.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.9%. In October, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 5.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 55.1% [1]. - Gold is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [1]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 7058 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 77.77%, up 1.34% from the previous day. The average downstream industry start - up rate is 48.9%, up 0.5 percentage points week - on - week. The commercial inventory is 85.66 million tons, up 5.61 million tons week - on - week, and the two - oil polyolefin inventory is 83.5 million tons, up 9 million tons week - on - week [1]. - It is expected that the commercial inventory will remain at a high level in the short term, and the PP 01 contract will oscillate, with an upper pressure at 7135 [1]. Iron Ore - From August 4th to 10th, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 508,000 tons compared to the previous period; at 45 ports, it was 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 1.259 million tons; and at the six northern ports, it was 12.03 million tons, a decrease of 501,000 tons [3]. - Iron ore prices may oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the expected reduction in hot metal production [3]. Rebar - On August 11th, the domestic steel market mainly rose. The ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an billets increased by 40 to 3100 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton, and one lowered it by 20 yuan/ton. Baosteel raised the ex - factory price of plates in September, with the base price of thick plates and hot - rolled products increasing by 200 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3408 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Steel prices may fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term [4]. Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 16 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 2 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 49 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 82 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 22 yuan/ton [4]. - The sixth round of price increases has started, and although there is resistance from steel mills, the raw material prices remain high, providing short - term support to the futures market [4]. Pig - On August 11th, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 114.15, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 114.35. As of 14:00, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 1.0% decrease from last Friday; the egg price was 7.55 yuan/kg, a 0.5% increase from last Friday [5]. - Pig prices are showing regional differences, with short - term supply pressure and weak demand. It is recommended to avoid over - optimism in the short term and consider long positions in the LH2511 contract in the medium - to - long term [5]. Silver - Trump's team is expanding the list of candidates for the Fed chair. The White House may announce the candidate this fall [5]. - Silver may fluctuate with an upward bias, and its continued correlation with gold needs further observation [5]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's July crude palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a 7.09% month - on - month increase; imports were 61,000 tons, a 12.82% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a 3.82% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a 4.02% month - on - month increase [6]. - Palm oil prices may experience high - level oscillations in the short term [6][7]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The US will continue to modify the implementation of ad valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the 24% tariff for 90 days from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff [7]. - Medium - and long - term treasury bonds may fluctuate with a downward bias [7]. Rapeseed Meal - As of August 8th, the rapeseed inventory at major coastal oil mills was 138,800 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from last week; and the unexecuted contracts were 69,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last week [8]. - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short term, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [8]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2374 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. The sample inventory at Chinese methanol ports is 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons week - on - week. The sample production enterprise inventory is 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons week - on - week. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a decrease of 3.55% week - on - week. The 1.2 million - ton/year methanol plant of Yanchang Zhongmei is expected to complete maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 72.61%, an increase of 0.85% week - on - week [9]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure at 2495 [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1336 yuan/ton, recently oscillating with a downward bias. The weekly soda ash production is 744,600 tons, a 6.4% increase from the previous period. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.8651 million tons, a 3.86% increase week - on - week. The float glass start - up rate is 75.19%, a 0.19% increase week - on - week. The average national float glass price is 1181 yuan/ton, a 18 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 61.847 million weight cases, a 3.95% increase week - on - week [10]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure at 1355 [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly bearish" rating on the bond market, suggesting investors focus on the stock-bond seesaw [5]. Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic in the bond market, with long-term bond yields breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic is expected to continue to dominate the bond market [10]. - Despite a decline in economic sentiment in July, subsequent economic data shows that the economy still has resilience, and countercyclical adjustments such as infrastructure investment are expected to increase in the second half of the year [3]. - The fiscal policy is "very active," with sufficient funds for stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand. The main tone for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the likelihood of incremental policies exceeding market expectations is limited [4]. Summary by Chapter Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led to a significant decline in long-term bond yields, breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic is expected to continue to dominate the bond market [10]. - The Politburo meeting in July provided some assurance for the steady growth of the economy in the second half of the year, with an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [10]. Chapter 2: Key News Overview - A number of major foreign investment projects have made new progress, and the National Development and Reform Commission plans to introduce a new batch of major foreign investment projects and a new version of the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment" [15]. - In July, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8% [16]. - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new industrialization, aiming to build a mature financial system by 2027 [16]. - Multiple departments have deployed key tasks for the second half of the year, with the keywords being effectively releasing domestic demand potential, promoting the integration of "two innovations," and advancing capacity governance in key industries [16][17]. - China's CPI in July was flat year-on-year, with urban CPI remaining unchanged, rural CPI down 0.3%, food prices down 1.6%, non-food prices up 0.3%, consumer goods prices down 0.4%, and service prices up 0.5% [16]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Key Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating a decline in economic sentiment and an increase in downward pressure [18]. - China's GDP in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding expectations [18]. - China's CPI in July was flat year-on-year, with different performance in urban and rural areas, as well as in food and non-food prices [18]. 3.2 Policy Front - As of the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. New RMB loans in the first half of the year were 12.92 trillion yuan, and new RMB deposits were 17.94 trillion yuan [20]. - At the end of June, the balance of broad money M2 was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the balance of narrow money M1 was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to May [20]. 3.3 Capital Front - Although the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed significantly and the policy rate has not been lowered, bond yields and DR007 have declined significantly, indicating that the capital market has loosened to a certain extent [22]. - With the weakening of exchange rate pressure, expectations of further monetary easing may increase, but the probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [22]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Front - In the past week, 16 provinces and municipalities including Shanghai, Hebei, and Beijing issued 161 local government bonds with a total scale of 641.64 billion yuan, including new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [26]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods trade-in funds in July and coordinate relevant aspects to ensure the orderly implementation of the policy throughout the year [26]. - The issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [26]. 3.5 Sentiment Front - The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term shock range and declined, indicating that the market's attention to stocks is greater than that to bonds, and market risk appetite has increased [28]. - Although the stock-bond ratio has slightly declined recently, it is still at a high level compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to whether it will continue to decline and whether funds will continue to flow from the bond market to the stock market [28]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The theme of economic work in the second half of the year is to combat involution and maintain stable economic recovery. With the start of infrastructure projects such as the Yajiang Hydropower Station, market expectations for further fiscal and infrastructure investment in the second half of the year have increased [31]. - Although the loose liquidity has supported the bond market, the stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic in the bond market recently. Paying attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market is the key to judging the medium-term trend of the bond market [31].

供应较稳，企业库存上升 摘 要： 供需关系：当前浮法玻璃企业利润较稳，日熔量较稳，本周暂 时未有浮法产线放水、点火预期，产量或持稳运行。浮法玻璃终端需 求仍偏弱，华北地区呈现下行趋势，沙河地区在市场情绪降温下，低 价货源流通，加之中下游业者主要消化自身库存，抑制厂家出货，工 厂库存增长明显，后期重点关注浮法玻璃开工变化。预计玻璃价格近 期震荡运行，01合约上方压力1270一线。建议短线高抛低吸，注意止 损。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：蒯三可 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货从业资格号：F03040522 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 风险提示：下游深加工企业订单回升超预期缓慢 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 | 第1章 行情回顾 | | 4 | | --- | --- ...