Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - V2509 fell 1.31% to close at 4,970 yuan/ton. The PVC supply may show an upward trend as the operating load gradually increases after the new production capacity is put into operation in August. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement. The anti - dumping policy release is delayed, but the rainy season still hinders overseas demand. The domestic calcium carbide supply and demand tend to be loose this week, and the price may fall; the ethylene US dollar market has sufficient supply, and the price may remain stable. Currently, the V2509 contract has a small premium, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton in the short term. For V2601, pay attention to the support around 5,040 yuan/ton and the resistance around 5,300 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,970 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the trading volume was 632,530 lots, up 17,816 lots; the open interest was 412,456 lots, down 66,122 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 835,187 lots, up 9,076 lots; the short positions were 864,943 lots, up 8,752 lots; the net long positions were - 29,756 lots, up 324 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,922.69 yuan/ton, down 2.31 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,952.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 116 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,623.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,403 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 198 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.49%, up 2.5 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 48.08 tons, up 3.28 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 42.37 tons, up 2.89 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 5.71 tons, up 0.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 30,364.32 million square meters, up 7,180.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 633,321.43 million square meters, up 8,301.89 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, up 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.15%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.94%, up 0.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.09%, up 2.68 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 24.1%, up 2.87 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 14, the market prices of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou decreased by 0 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with prices ranging from 4,800 to 4,930 yuan/ton. From August 2 to August 8, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. As of August 14, the PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% month - on - month to 811,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.72% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2509 fluctuated weakly, closing at 7,287 yuan/ton. Supply: PE output increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 661,100 tons. Demand: The average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.4% week - on - week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 0.4%. Inventory: Producer inventory rose 19.09% to 515,400 tons, social inventory fell 1.22% to 568,700 tons, and total inventory pressure is not significant. Domestic PE's next round of intensive maintenance is expected to start in mid - August. Due to the leap June, domestic greenhouse film demand is delayed, extending the downstream off - season. Food and daily chemical packaging film orders are accumulating sporadically, mainly for rigid demand. Cost: OPEC+ production increase impact continues, IEA predicts intensified oil supply - demand imbalance, and the upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders makes international oil prices fluctuate weakly. For L2509, pay attention to the support around 7,200 yuan/ton; for L2601, focus on the support around 7,300 yuan/ton and the resistance around 7,500 yuan/ton. The main contract is about to switch to L2601 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,343 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the trading volume was 187,511 lots, and the open interest was 303,896 lots, an increase of 91,334 lots. The 9 - 1 spread was - 56. The buy orders of the top 20 futures positions were 322,688 lots, a decrease of 3,077 lots; the sell orders were 339,408 lots, and the net buy orders were - 16,720 lots, a decrease of 1,438 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,313.04 yuan/ton, and in East China was 7,398.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.24 yuan [2] 3.3 Basis - The basis was 26.87, with a change of 0.04 [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.31 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.77; CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 563.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5. The middle price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, and in Northeast Asia was 826 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 84.08% [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 49.3%, that of pipes was 29%, and that of agricultural film was 13.07% [2] 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 11.89%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.63%, a decrease of 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options was 14.8%, an increase of 0.19% [2] 3.8 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, China's polyethylene output was 661,100 tons, an increase of 0.14% from the previous period. From August 1st to 7th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.4% from the previous period. As of August 6th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 515,400 tons, an increase of 19.09% from the previous period; as of August 8th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 568,700 tons, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous period [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Supply is increasing as some polysilicon enterprises that previously cut production or halted operations due to losses or equipment maintenance are resuming production with improved market sentiment and policy - driven "anti - involution" measures. Demand is weakening as downstream battery enterprises have different acceptance levels for silicon wafer price hikes, some small and medium - sized battery enterprises have low procurement willingness, the overall silicon wafer industry's operating rate has decreased slightly, and component enterprises are more cautious in purchasing polysilicon. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust this week, with prices likely to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to continue short - selling operations mainly, and the current operation suggestions are to wait and see or layout put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 50,430 yuan/ton, down 860 yuan; the main contract position is 127,757 lots, down 4,706 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,445 yuan, down 75 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 41,755 yuan/ton, down 935 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is - 3,430 yuan/ton, up 860 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (cauliflower material) is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (dense material) is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (re - feeding material) is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,675 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,113 tons, up 320 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6.7386 million kilowatts, down 318,300 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.31 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 27.86, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 13, Liu Bing, a member of the Party Group and Deputy Director of the Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission, introduced that the development of non - fossil energy in Jiangxi is rapid. The new energy installed capacity has increased by 1.6 times compared with the end of 2020. Wind and photovoltaic installed capacity has exceeded thermal power and become one of the main power sources in Jiangxi. The number of county - level regions connected to long - distance pipeline natural gas has increased by 42 compared with 2020, basically achieving full coverage of 100 counties (cities, districts) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - EB2509 fell 0.84% to close at 7,238 yuan/ton. On the supply side, a new Shandong plant increased output this week, and some plants adjusted their loads. Styrene production increased 2.76% to 369,100 tons, and capacity utilization rose 0.45% to 78.18%. On the demand side, the operating rates of styrene downstream industries varied last week, and the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS decreased 3.17% to 238,100 tons. In terms of inventory, styrene factory inventory decreased 1.29% to 208,700 tons, East China port inventory decreased 6.42% to 148,800 tons, and South China port inventory increased 16.13% to 18,000 tons. New capacity additions intensify industry competition. Integrated plant profitability is average, and non - integrated plant losses are expected to deepen. Recently, EPS plants on centralized maintenance are about to restart, and some PS and ABS plants plan to increase production, so short - term demand is expected to rise. However, poor downstream demand and expected finished - product inventory accumulation may restrain styrene demand growth [2]. - Styrene spot supply is ample, and total inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. With the decline in crude oil costs, styrene prices are under pressure. Technically, EB2509 should focus on the support around 7,200 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active styrene contract was 7,238 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; trading volume was 193,870, up 46,999; the long position of the top 20 holders was 312,236 hands, down 2,632; the 10 - month contract closing price was 7,259 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan; the futures open interest of the active contract was 195,195 hands, down 6,330; the net long position of the top 20 holders was - 19,983 hands, down 2,756; the short position of the top 20 holders was 332,219 hands, up 124; and the total warehouse receipt quantity was 737 hands, up 188 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,622 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the FOB South Korea middle price was 894 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; the CFR China middle price was 904 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; the mainstream price in Northeast China was 7,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in South China was 7,500 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the mainstream price in North China was 7,365 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; and the mainstream price in East China was 7,345 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle price of ethylene was 826 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia middle price was 831 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe middle price was 859.5 dollars/ton, down 14.5 dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 457 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars; the FOB US Gulf spot price of pure benzene was 269 cents/gallon, down 1 cent; the CIF Taiwan spot price of pure benzene was 744.81 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB Rotterdam spot price of pure benzene was 720 dollars/ton, unchanged; the South China market price of pure benzene was 6,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the East China market price was 6,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the North China market price was 6,200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 77.73%, down 1.19 percentage points; national styrene inventory was 211,455 tons, down 5,884 tons; the total inventory at East China main ports was 148,800 tons, down 10,200 tons; and the trade inventory at East China main ports was 69,500 tons, up 3,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 43.67%, down 10.58 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS was 71.1%, up 5.2 percentage points; the operating rate of PS was 55%, up 1.7 percentage points; the operating rate of UPR was 30%, up 1 percentage point; and the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 73.35%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, China's total styrene factory output was 369,100 tons, up 2.76% from the previous period; the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.18%, up 0.45% month - on - month [2]. - From August 1st to 7th, the consumption of China's main styrene downstream industries (EPS, PS, ABS) was 238,100 tons, down 3.17% from the previous week [2]. - As of August 14th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 208,700 tons, down 1.29% month - on - month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current low volume of Gala apples on the market and low old - crop inventories boost short - term apple prices, but the price increase may slow down after a large number of Gala apples are listed. The AP2510 contract has entered an adjustment phase, and it is recommended to take profits and exit long positions on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8,123 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract is 81,632 lots, a decrease of 1,945 lots. The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3,158 lots, an increase of 500 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.69 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.09, a decrease of 0.01; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.22 million tons. The monthly export volume of apples is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export value is 4,330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.25 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg, and the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 8.4, an increase of 1; the daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 11, an increase of 1; the daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16, an increase of 0.4 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 20.22%, a decrease of 0.19%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 20.23%, a decrease of 0.18% [2] Industry News - On August 14, 2025, paper - bagged Gala apples in the western main producing areas are in the critical color - turning period, with poor color - turning and low purchasing enthusiasm from buyers. In the Shandong producing area, the supply of Luli and Jinduhong apples continues to increase, and buyers pick and choose. The inventory of Fuji apples has chaotic transactions, and the quality of farmers' apples is average, with common price - cutting transactions. According to preliminary estimates by Mysteel based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple output is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Currently, the egg market is facing an oversupply situation due to high laying - hen inventory, new - laying pressure from previously replenished hens, and continuous cold - storage egg outflows. Meanwhile, terminal demand is weak as high - temperature weather increases demand for egg substitutes. This has led to lower - than - expected spot prices and continuous losses for the breeding sector. However, with school - opening preparations and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the futures market, near - month contracts tend to be weak under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity, while far - month contracts are relatively more resistant to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3189 yuan/500 kilograms, down 88 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 28965 hands, up 641 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is 98 yuan/500 kilograms, up 12 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 310634 hands, up 157772 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 3 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.03 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week change of 0; the basis (spot - futures) is - 158 yuan/500 kilograms, up 88 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 111.91 (2015 = 100), up 1.02; the national culled laying - hen index is 104.09 (2015 = 100), down 4.59; the average price of day - old chicks in the main production areas is 3.85 yuan/chick, with a week - on - week change of 0; the national new - chick index is 76.07 (2015 = 100), down 30.71; the average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.7 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week change of 0; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.31 yuan/hen, down 0.15 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 11.34 yuan/kg, down 0.42 yuan; the national culling age of laying hens is 501 days, down 5 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of pork is 4.74 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.39 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.23 days, up 0.12 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, up 0.08 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7529 tons, down 368 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 5.99 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.89 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2].

前整体订单表现一般，企业控产仍将延续，对整体产能利用率提升幅度形成一定拖拽。br2510合约短线预 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 计在11500-12000区间波动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11645 | -105 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 23673 | -2884 | | | 合成橡胶9-10价差(日,元/吨) | 0 | 15 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2490 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 11800 | 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11750 | 0 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11800 | 东(日,元/吨) -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化) ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 13900 | -145 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 64710 | -1520 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 430 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -16753 | 2539 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13700 | 0 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13400 | 100 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15100 | -200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -200 | 145 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4043 | 1 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 0 | -0.1 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 3090 | 0 | | | 玉米现货价 | 2394.12 | - ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1726 | -31 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -11 | 10 360 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 174742 | 99834 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -24077 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 3823 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1720 | -10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -6 | -10 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 455 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 460 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 48.3 | -1 企业库存(周,万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, rainy weather has led to pressure on raw material supply and firm purchase prices. In Hainan, rainy weather has restricted tapping operations, and local processing plants have maintained price - increased raw material purchases [2]. - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has continued to decline. Both bonded and general trade warehouses are experiencing inventory reduction, with the general trade inventory reduction rate increasing. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage are still low, and the overall storage rate has decreased, while some tire companies have continued to replenish stocks slightly, and previous orders are being picked up, leading to an increase in the overall delivery rate [2]. - This week, the domestic tire production capacity utilization rate has fluctuated slightly. Some large - scale semi - steel tire enterprises have about a week of maintenance, which has affected the overall production capacity utilization rate. The resumption of work at all - steel tire maintenance enterprises has driven up the all - steel tire production capacity utilization rate. There is still a small upward space for the production capacity utilization rate as maintenance enterprises resume work, but the overall order performance is average, and enterprises will continue to control production, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,550 - 16,100 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,635 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,490 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 9 - 1 is - 1000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber contracts 9 - 10 is - 65 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3145 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 127,556 lots, up 1363 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 56,239 lots, up 212 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,683 lots, down 758 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9065 lots, up 15 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 179,070 tons, down 1130 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 46,569 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 202 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 835 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,843 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 353 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 62.5 Thai baht/kg, down 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 58.9 Thai baht/kg, up 0.57 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 49.8 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 46.45 days, up 0.81 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.78%, up 0.17 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.64%, up 0.26 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.41%, down 0.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.43%, down 0.13 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 10th to August 16th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. Areas north of the equator with heavy rainfall are mainly in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and most other areas have low - to - medium rainfall, which has a greater impact on tapping. Areas south of the equator with heavy rainfall are mainly in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and most other areas have medium rainfall, which also has a greater impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The storage rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the delivery rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the storage rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the delivery rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2]. Suggested Attention - The operating rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday is from a third - party source and for reference only [2].