| | | 尿素产业日报 2025-08-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1722 | -6 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -29 | -6 -3222 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 109774 | 1568 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -18861 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 3623 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1760 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1780 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1780 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1730 | -30 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 8 | -24 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 455 | 20 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 460 | 50 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存( ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC fee has improved but remains in the negative range, and the domestic port inventory has slightly increased. The tight supply of copper ore still supports the copper price. The smelters are currently actively producing due to new production capacity and high by - product sulfuric acid prices, but the production growth rate may slow down due to raw material supply. The downstream consumption demand may slow down due to the off - season and US tariffs, and the inventory remains at a medium - low level. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red column expands and then slightly converges. It is recommended to trade long at low positions with a light position, paying attention to the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,020 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,747.50 dollars/ton, down 14.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 30 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the position of the Shanghai copper main contract is 160,884 hands, up 3,992 hands. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 706 hands, up 2,829 hands. The LME copper inventory is 155,850 tons, down 150 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 81,933 tons, up 9,390 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,075 tons, down 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 23,275 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,150 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,085 yuan/ton, up 565 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 58 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 45.50 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 130 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 69.55 dollars/ton, down 3.92 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons; the copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 38.06 dollars/kiloton, up 4.03 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,850 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan; the copper concentrate price in Yunnan is 69,550 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee for blister copper is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 1.302 billion tons, up 480 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 54,990 yuan; the ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 2.2145 billion tons, up 1.185 billion tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.37%, up 0.30%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.70%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 9.84%, down 0.0023%; the at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.18, up 0.0095 [2]. Industry News - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and was flat year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. The WTO predicts that the global goods trade volume will increase by 0.9% in 2025. Fed Governor Bowman believes that core PCE inflation is approaching the 2% target and supports three interest rate cuts this year. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Trump's tariff policy aims to bring manufacturing back to the US and hopes the next Fed Chairman has "forward - looking thinking". The "Thousands of Counties and Towns" new energy vehicle consumption season started in Xiaogan, Hubei on August 9, with a maximum subsidy of over 22,000 yuan. In July, the production and retail of passenger cars increased by 12.1% and 6.3% year - on - year respectively, and the production and retail of new energy vehicles increased by 22.3% and 12% year - on - year respectively [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that on the macro - front, China's July CPI was flat year - on - year and PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed. The competition order in industries such as coal and photovoltaic was optimized, reducing price drag. The US and Russia were reported to be seeking a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, leading to a "flash crash" in crude oil. On the fundamental side, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad increased, the zinc ore processing fee continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price increased significantly, which further repaired smelters' profits and increased their production enthusiasm. The new production capacity in various places was gradually released, and the previously overhauled capacity resumed production, accelerating the supply growth. At present, the import loss continued to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc decreased. On the demand side, the downstream entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises decreased year - on - year. Although the downstream made purchases on dips recently, the overall trading remained dull, and the domestic social inventory continued to increase while the spot premium declined. The overseas LME inventory decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price drove up the domestic zinc price. Technically, the increase in positions and price indicated a strong long - position atmosphere, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 level. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai zinc was - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote was 2,834 US dollars/ton, up 18.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc was 213,578 lots, up 4,712 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 9,079 lots, up 1,473 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 15,494 tons, up 1,148 tons. The SHFE inventory was 65,917 tons (weekly), up 4,193 tons, and the LME inventory was 81,500 tons, down 3,450 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,560 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract was - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 0.23 US dollars/ton, up 4.09 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,190 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production of ILZSG was 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production was 628,000 tons (monthly), up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory was 91,200 tons (weekly), up 3,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The monthly automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc was 13.69% (daily), down 0.92 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc was 13.69% (daily), down 0.93 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 7.69% (daily), down 1.32 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 13.27% (daily), down 0.07 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed. The US and Russia were reported to be seeking a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which would consolidate Russia's controlled territory in the conflict. Trump said he would meet Putin in Alaska on August 15. Zelensky firmly refused to make territorial concessions and stated that an agreement without Ukraine's participation would be an "invalid plan" [3].

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-08-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 5010 | 17 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 734439 | 52084 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 589321 | -45885 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 368253 | -50661 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 391529 | -26014 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -23276 | -24647 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5125 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4905.38 | -22.31 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5035 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4948.75 | 0 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价( ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - A - share major indices rose collectively this week, and the four stock - index futures also increased. Small and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap blue - chip stocks, with the order of gains being IM > IC > IF > IH. Market trading activity declined significantly compared to last week. Although the import and export trade has improved marginally, it may still face pressure in the future. The market's focus has shifted to the semi - annual reports of listed companies, and the net profit growth rates of the four broad - based indices are all positive. Some listed companies' fundamental improvements support the stock market, but the potential drag on index performance from the profit decline of companies that have not released their financial reports should be watched out for. A shares with reasonable valuations are attracting foreign capital inflows, and S&P's attitude towards China's sovereign credit rating also boosts market confidence. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [7][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2509 rose 1.33% this week, IH2509 rose 1.13%, IC2509 rose 2.02%, and IM2509 rose 2.94%. - Spot: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 1.23%, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 1.27%, the CSI 500 rose 1.78%, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.51% [9]. 3.2 News Overview - As of August 5, 23 stocks had QFIIs in their top ten tradable shareholders' lists at the end of the second quarter, with a total market value of holdings reaching 3.737 billion yuan, and an average market value of QFII holdings per stock of 162 million yuan. Compared with the end of the first quarter, 5 stocks had an increase in QFII shareholding, and 13 stocks were newly heavily held, with the proportion of stocks with increased positions reaching 78.26%. - In July, 1,298 private funds were registered in the entire market, a month - on - month increase of 18%, setting a new monthly registration volume high since 2025 and breaking the registration volume record in the past 27 months. - From January to July 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.3%; imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.6%, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. In July, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%, with two consecutive months of growth. - S&P decided to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" and the outlook at "stable". The Ministry of Finance responded that S&P's report highly recognized China's economic growth resilience and debt management effectiveness, reflecting confidence in China's economic prospects [13][14]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Main Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.25%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.65%, the SME 100 Index rose 1.24%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.49% [17]. - **External Main Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 1.63%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.35%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.43%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 2.50% [18]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: Industry sectors generally rose, with the national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and machinery and equipment sectors rising significantly. Industry main funds were generally in net outflows, with significant net outflows in the pharmaceutical and biological and computer sectors. SHIBOR short - term interest rates declined, and the capital price was low. This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 6.923 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 94.036 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of northbound funds was 815.488 billion yuan. The basis of the IF main contract strengthened oscillatingly, the basis of the IH main contract changed from positive to negative, and the basis of the IC and IM main contracts strengthened oscillatingly [22][26][30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The A - share major indices and four stock - index futures rose collectively this week, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. Market trading activity declined significantly compared to last week. Domestically, the economic fundamentals showed that the Sino - US tariff truce period was extended by 90 days, and trade relations improved marginally. In July, the growth rates of import and export amounts accelerated compared to June, but the trade surplus narrowed compared to the previous month. The confidence of exporters declined. S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating. At the individual stock level, the net profit growth rates of the four broad - based indices increased. Northbound funds were actively traded, and QFIIs increased their positions in A - share listed companies. Although the import and export trade improved marginally, it may face pressure in the future. The market's focus has shifted to the semi - annual reports of listed companies, and some listed companies' fundamental improvements support the stock market. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of the FOMC cutting interest rates in September has significantly increased. The sharp weakening of the employment market may be an indicator of future economic data deterioration. The Fed is likely to start an interest rate cut window from September, which is a potential positive factor for the precious metals market [7]. - In the short - term, the precious metals market may face phased adjustment pressure. In the long - term, factors such as inflation rebound risk, the Fed's loose policy expectations, damaged dollar credit, and resilient gold investment demand support the upward movement of the gold price center [7]. - The silver price has rebounded strongly recently. The tight supply - demand pattern and financial attributes provide bottom support, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and domestic measures may boost its industrial attributes. There is still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and make long - term low - level layouts. Specific price ranges for futures contracts are provided [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The July non - farm payroll data was far below market expectations. High - interest rates, tariff risks, and weak PMI indices have had a negative impact on the labor market. The US has increased tariffs on India and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on imported chips, with the average tariff rate rising from 2.3% to 15.2%. Some FOMC officials have signaled interest rate cuts, but Powell maintains a neutral - hawkish stance [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The probability of an FOMC interest rate cut in September has increased. Although there is still an inflation risk, the weak employment market may prompt the Fed to cut rates from September. In the short - term, the precious metals market may face adjustment pressure, while in the long - term, there are supportive factors [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: As of August 8, 2025, COMEX silver rose 3.96% to $38.645 per ounce, and COMEX gold rose 2.48% to $3499 per ounce. The Shanghai silver main contract 2510 fell 4.04% to 9278 yuan per kilogram, and the Shanghai gold main contract 2510 rose 2.22% to 787.80 yuan per gram [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 7, 2025, the SLV silver ETF's holdings increased 0.3% to 15112 tons, and the SPDR gold ETF's holdings increased 0.5% to 959.09 tons [14]. - **Speculative Net Positions**: As of July 29, 2025, COMEX gold and silver speculative net positions decreased, with gold's total and net positions falling 9.02% and 11.64% respectively, and silver's total and net positions falling 1.93% and 2.00% respectively [19]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 29, 2025, both long and short positions of COMEX gold in CFTC increased week - on - week, with the net long position increasing [20]. - **Basis**: As of August 7, 2025, the gold basis strengthened, rising 15.25% to - 3 yuan per gram, and the silver basis weakened, falling 13.33% to - 34 yuan per kilogram [28]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories increased, while SHFE inventories showed a differentiated trend. COMEX gold inventory was almost unchanged, SHFE gold inventory increased 18.13%, COMEX silver inventory increased 0.80%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased 0.30% [33]. 3. Industrial Supply and Demand Situation - **Silver Industry**: As of June 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly by 0.14%, and silver ore imports decreased significantly by 7.51%. Due to the surge in semiconductor silver demand, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise [35][39]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, silver industrial demand increased by 4%, coin and net bar demand decreased by 22%, and ETF net investment demand increased from - 37.6 million ounces to 61.6 million ounces. The total demand decreased by 3%. The supply - demand gap has been narrowing year by year [47][51]. - **Gold Industry**: As of August 7, 2025, the gold recycling price showed a slight decline, while gold jewelry prices generally increased with the rise of the gold price [53][55]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2025 Q2, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. Central bank gold purchases slowed down, and the high gold price led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [57]. 4. Macroeconomic and Options - **Macroeconomic Data**: The non - farm payroll data was weak, the US dollar index and 10 - year US Treasury yields declined this week. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate declined, and in July 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons [61][65][69][73].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) fluctuated. The main contract EC2510 rose 0.27%, while other contracts had gains ranging from -1% to 4%. The latest SCFIS Europe Line settlement freight rate index was 2,297.86, down 18.7 points from last week, a 0.8% decrease [6][44]. - Trump's tariff measures have intensified global trade uncertainties and raised market expectations of a resurgence in trade conflicts. The US consumer sector shows resilience, but there is an upward risk of inflation in the future. The Q2 2025 GDP growth of the Eurozone slightly exceeded market expectations, and the ECB has more flexibility in its interest - rate policy [6][44]. - From July to August, the traditional peak season for European routes has led to an increase in delivery volume. The recovery of cargo volume has offset some market concerns, and the complexity of the geopolitical situation has postponed the resumption of Red Sea voyages, pushing up the freight rates on European routes. However, freight and industry profitability may be under pressure, and the peak season may be "not so peaky" with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly [7][45]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2508 fell 2.08%, EC2510 rose 0.27%, EC2512 rose 4.27%, EC2602 rose 3.00%, EC2604 rose 1.74%, and EC2606 rose 1.42%. The SCFIS index fell 0.8% [10]. - The price of the main contract of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) rose slightly this week, and the trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract both increased [13][18] 2. News Review and Analysis - In July, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 3.91 trillion yuan, a 6.7% year - on - year increase. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%. In the first seven months, the total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase [21]. - Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts, may soon announce a new Fed chairman, and plans to raise tariffs on India, chips, and semiconductors. The US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing disputes, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff [21] 3. Chart Analysis - This week, the basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) futures contracts converged, and the export container freight rate index declined [27][29]. - Container shipping capacity decreased in the short term. The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. The average charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated [34][38] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) fluctuated this week. Trump's tariff policies have increased trade uncertainties. The US consumer sector shows resilience, but inflation may rise. The Eurozone's economic data is stable, and the ECB has more flexibility in interest - rate policies [44]. - The peak season for European routes from July to August has led to an increase in delivery volume, but freight and industry profitability may be under pressure, and freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase in shipping companies' cabin opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade - war - related information [7][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current egg market has sufficient supply due to the high inventory of laying hens and the continuous release of cold - storage eggs. Meanwhile, the terminal demand is weak, resulting in low - priced sales by breeding enterprises to reduce inventory, and the spot price has been lower than expected, causing the industry to fall into losses again. However, with the start of school - opening stockpiling and mid - autumn procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. The futures price has declined again due to the continuous drop in spot prices and high inventory [8]. - It is recommended to participate in the market mainly through short - term trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy: Participate in the market mainly through short - term trading [7]. - Egg market review: This week, the egg futures 09 contract closed at 3362 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 122 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. In the future, high inventory and weak demand continue to pressure prices, but future demand may improve [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The egg futures 09 contract declined again, with a position of 203,664 lots, a decrease of 22,376 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 decreased from - 37,010 to - 27,832 [14]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 6 [18]. - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 2,886 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 287 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 476 yuan per ton [24]. - Futures monthly spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was - 188 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - Related product prices: As of August 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.45 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.58 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of June 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%; the new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - Elimination of laying hens: As of June 30, 2025, the national laying - hen elimination index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%; the average age of eliminated hens was 501 days [45]. - Feed raw material prices: As of August 7, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,395.49 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2,940 yuan per ton [49]. - Feed price and breeding profit: As of August 1, 2025, the breeding profit per laying hen was - 0.16 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.70 yuan per kilogram [56]. - Egg - chicken chick and eliminated - hen prices: As of August 1, 2025, the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas was 3.85 yuan per chick, and the average price of eliminated hens was 11.76 yuan per kilogram [62]. - Egg exports: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons [66]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - Xiaoming Co., Ltd. The report shows its price - to - earnings ratio change, but specific data is not provided [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the soda ash futures declined by 0.08%, and the glass futures dropped by 3.54%. The soda ash futures showed a volatile performance, mainly due to the change in expectations and the market's return to fundamental trading. The glass followed a similar trend to soda ash futures. After the Politburo meeting, the anti - involution sentiment subsided, and policy expectations for the second half of the year changed. The previously hyped upward trend has mostly reversed. Glass is expected to reverse its fundamentals first and may rise after a decline next week to repair emotional trading. Soda ash is expected to have ample supply, falling demand, and continued price pressure, while glass supply and demand are also under pressure, with prices likely to fall overall [6]. - The SA2601 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1280 - 1350, with stop - loss in the range of 1250 - 1380. The FG2601 is advised to operate in the range of 1140 - 1200, with stop - loss in the range of 1100 - 1250 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures fell 0.08% this week with volatile performance due to expectation changes and a return to fundamental trading. Glass futures dropped 3.54%, following a similar trend to soda ash. After the Politburo meeting, sentiment and policy expectations changed, reversing the previous upward trend. Glass may reverse fundamentals first and rise after a decline next week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply is ample with rising domestic production and开工率. Profits are falling, which may reduce output. Natural alkali methods will replace outdated capacity. Demand from the glass industry shows signs of recovery but remains at a low level. Inventory is rising, and the de - stocking process will be uneven. Overall, supply will remain ample, demand will decline, and prices will be under pressure. For glass, supply and demand are both under pressure, with supply expected to increase slightly next week. The real - estate situation is not optimistic, and prices are likely to fall overall [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Soda ash futures declined by 0.08% this week, and glass futures dropped by 3.54% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: As of August 7, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1340 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 95 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1104 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton [14][18]. - **Basis**: As of August 7, 2025, the soda ash basis was - 97 yuan/ton, and the glass basis was 28 yuan/ton. The soda ash basis continued to weaken, and the glass basis also weakened [14][18]. - **Price Spread**: As of August 7, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 281 yuan/ton. The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week [20][22]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: As of August 7, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 85.16%, a week - on - week increase of 5.13%, and the weekly output was 74.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.4% [28]. - **Profitability**: As of August 7, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the combined soda process was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was 45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 150.36 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; using coal - made gas as fuel was 111.05 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19.61%; using petroleum coke as fuel was 130.57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% [33]. - **Glass Production**: As of August 7, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired. The national float glass output was 111.17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%, and is expected to remain low next week [37]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 66.76%, unchanged from the previous week, and the daily melting volume was 86,500 tons/day, unchanged from the previous week, and is expected to remain at a low level next week [41]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was 186.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.93%. The total glass inventory was 61.847 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95%, and is expected to continue de - stocking [47]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, showing a slight recovery but still at a low level [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The raw material end is affected by the rainy season in Guinea and mining area disturbances, with a potential decrease in bauxite shipments and rising prices. Domestic port inventories may decrease. Supply has a slight increase due to policy - related price increases and profit repair for smelters. Demand also shows a small increase as electrolytic aluminum production slightly rises. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly increasing supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is high with firm alumina prices and high - oscillating aluminum prices, resulting in good smelter profits and positive production willingness. Supply has a small increase due to previous technical renovation and capacity replacement projects, but production is approaching the industry ceiling. Demand is weak during the off - season, and high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption. Short - term inventory may accumulate slightly, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: High raw material costs squeeze smelter profits, and production may decrease due to cost - profit issues and the off - season. Demand is weak during the off - season, with cautious purchasing by consumers. Inventory is slightly accumulating [6]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Trade the main contract of Shanghai aluminum lightly with a weak - oscillating view, and trade the main contract of alumina lightly by going long at low prices. Trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with an oscillating view. Pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum opened low and rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.85% to 20,685 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated, with a weekly increase of 0.25% to 3,170 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 0.95% to 20,110 yuan/ton [4][6]. - **Market Outlook and Strategy**: See the core views above [4][6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movements**: As of August 8, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's closing price was 20,695 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from August 1; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,610.5 dollars/ton, up 1.87% from August 1. The alumina futures price was 3,161 yuan/ton, down 2.23% from August 1. The cast aluminum alloy's main contract closing price was 20,110 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from August 1 [9][13]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of August 8, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.95, up 0.1 from August 1. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,830 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from August 1; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,805 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from August 1 [10][22]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of August 8, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's position was 587,075 lots, up 1.6% from August 1; the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 6,713 lots from August 1 [16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang was 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from August 1. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from August 1. The A00 aluminum ingot's spot price was 20,630 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from August 1, with a spot discount of 50 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week [25][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, up 1.84% from July 31; Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,614 tons, down 3.33% from last week; domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 506,000 tons, up 3.9% from July 31 [36]. - **Raw Materials**: As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 27.36 million tons, down 40,000 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 18.1163 million tons, up 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 103.2494 million tons, up 33.61% year - on - year. The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. In June 2025, the import of aluminum waste and scrap was 155,616.27 tons, up 11.4% year - on - year; the export was 64.33 tons, down 38.7% year - on - year [39][45]. - **Production and Trade**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, up 9.3% year - on - year. The import was 101,300 tons, up 50.03% month - on - month and 168.44% year - on - year; the export was 170,000 tons, down 19.05% month - on - month and up 6.25% year - on - year. In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 192,300 tons, up 58.78% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative import was 1.2493 million tons, up 2.46% year - on - year; the export was 19,600 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative export was 85,900 tons. In June 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 32.7679 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year. The output of cast aluminum alloy in June 2025 was 618,900 tons, up 5.49% year - on - year. The output of aluminum alloy in June 2025 was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 9.097 million tons [48][51][55][59][62][65]. - **Downstream Markets**: In June 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month and up 1.61 from the same period last year. From January to June 2024, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, down 20.14% year - on - year; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, down 22.87% year - on - year. From January to June 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,904,482, up 13.83% year - on - year; production was 2,794,105, up 11.43% year - on - year [68][71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected slight weak - oscillating trend of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].