1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2150 in the short term [7] - The domestic methanol market continued to decline this week, with both port and inland prices falling. The market sentiment was significantly impacted by the sharp decline in the futures market and the continuous back - flow of port supplies [8] - Recently, the output loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production capacity, leading to an overall increase in production. The inventory of enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory accumulated slightly [8] - The operating rate of the olefin industry continued to decline this week, and it may decline slightly in the short term after the hedging of expected load changes of enterprises in different regions [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2150 in the short term [7] - Market review: The port methanol market continued to decline this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2050 - 2200 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2080 - 2190 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices also continued to decline. The futures market declined significantly, and the market sentiment was impacted [8] - Market outlook: The overall domestic methanol production increased. The enterprise inventory increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated slightly, and the olefin industry operating rate continued to decline and may decline slightly in the short term [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Futures price: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.12% [12] - Inter - period spread: As of November 7, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 101 [16] - Position analysis: As of November 7, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 10,914, a decrease of 923 compared to last week [25] 3.2.2 Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of November 6, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2087.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 107.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [31] - Foreign spot price: As of November 6, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 244 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars/ton compared to last week [37] - Basis: As of November 6, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 37.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [41] 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - Coal and natural gas prices: As of November 5, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of November 6, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.35 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [44] 3.3.2 Industry - Production and operating rate: As of November 6, China's methanol production was 1,992,055 tons, an increase of 26,860 tons compared to last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% [47] - Inventory: As of November 5, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.75%; the sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 221,100 tons, an increase of 5500 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.57%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,517,100 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China increased, while that in South China decreased [52] - Import volume and profit: In September 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.92%; from January to September 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 9.6667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.94%. As of November 5, the methanol import profit was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [55] 3.3.3 Downstream - Operating rate: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 90.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The olefin industry operating rate continued to decline [58] - Profit: As of November 7, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - screen profit was - 672 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127 yuan/ton compared to last week [61] 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern of the pig market is still loose, which restricts price movements. When prices fall to a low level, the supply - demand game intensifies, causing price fluctuations. It is expected that prices will adjust weakly at a low level. It is recommended to short on rebounds and conduct rolling operations, and pay attention to setting stop - losses [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices fluctuated, and the main contract 2601 rose 0.42% weekly [7] - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, large - scale farms are expected to resume slaughter to meet the annual slaughter plan, but price drops may lead to some small - scale farmers' reluctance to sell, slightly reducing the pressure. Second - fattening participants are currently cautious. On the demand side, due to temperature fluctuations, the slaughterhouse's operating rate declined last week, indicating limited improvement in terminal demand. Overall, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and prices are expected to adjust weakly at a low level [7] 3.2. Futures Market Situation - **Price Movement**: Futures prices rose slightly this week, with the main contract 2601 rising 0.42% weekly [7][11] - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 7, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures increased by 1662 lots to 31505 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 90, a decrease of 116 from the previous week [17] - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 400, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 140 [23] 3.3. Spot Market Situation - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the November contract was - 200 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the January contract was 135 yuan/ton [28] - **Spot Price**: The national average pig price was 11.99 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.52 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.62 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.48 yuan/kg from last week [37] - **Pork and Sow Prices**: In the week of October 30, the national average pork price was 23.25 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.14 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.47 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [42] - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of October 29, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.54, an increase of 0.29 from the previous week [46] 3.4. Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In the third quarter of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 tons (0.2%) from the previous quarter and a 0.7% year - on - year decrease. According to Mysteel data, in October, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.12% month - on - month and 0.83% year - on - year, while that in 85 small - scale farms decreased by 0.14% month - on - month and increased by 0.89% year - on - year [51] - **Pig Inventory**: In the third quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 2.9% increase from the previous quarter and a 2.3% year - on - year increase. According to Mysteel data, in October, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.10% month - on - month and 5.16% year - on - year, and that in 85 small - scale farms increased by 1.84% month - on - month and 6.45% year - on - year [55] - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In October, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 11.4395 million, a 11.96% increase from the previous month and a 17.56% year - on - year increase. The slaughter volume of 85 small - scale farms was 0.5258 million, a 9.48% increase from the previous month and a 27.06% year - on - year increase. The average slaughter weight of national ternary pigs this week was 123.25 kg, an increase of 0.01 kg from last week [60] 3.5. Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of November 7, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 175.54 yuan/head, with the loss narrowing by 4.18 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 89.21 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 0.12 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.47 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/head week - on - week, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was - 0.74 yuan/head [63] - **Pork Imports**: In September, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, a 20% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, pork imports were 790,000 tons, a 1.25% year - on - year decrease [69] - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of November 7, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.8 yuan/kg, the same as last week. As of the week of November 6, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.69 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [74] - **Feed Situation**: As of November 7, the spot price of soybean meal was 3097.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2238.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 898.59. The price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, the same as last week. In September 2025, the monthly feed output was 31.287 million tons, an increase of 2.015 million tons from the previous month. The sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.01% month - on - month and increased by 71.08% year - on - year [79][82][88] - **CPI**: As of September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [92] 3.6. Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Inventory**: In the 45th week, the slaughterhouse's operating rate was 33.47%, a decrease of 1.84 percentage points from last week and a 5.28 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The frozen - product storage rate was 18.24%, a slight increase of 0.02% from last week [95] - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of September 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 35.84 million, a 6.99% increase from the previous month. In September 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.9 billion yuan, a 0.9% year - on - year increase [100] 3.7. Pig - Related Stocks - The document mentions the stock trends of Muyuan and Wens, but specific data is not provided [101]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures price showed a weekly oscillatory upward trend, with a gain of +1.88% and an amplitude of 6.59%. As of the end of the week, the closing price of the main contract was 82,300 yuan/ton [5]. - The lithium carbonate market may be in a stage of stable and slight increase in supply and rapid release of demand, with a slight reduction in industry inventory. The supply of lithium carbonate in China remains stable with a slight increase, while the demand from the power and energy storage sectors continues to grow [5]. - It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed an oscillatory upward trend on the weekly line, with a closing price of 82,300 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Brazil has become a new frontier for China's electric vehicle boom. In 2024, Brazil imported about 138,000 pure - electric and hybrid vehicles from China, nearly 100,000 more than the previous year [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There is still uncertainty in domestic lithium mines. Overseas mines are still strongly holding up prices, and lithium ore prices have only slightly weakened. Lithium salt plants maintain a high operating rate, and the supply of lithium carbonate remains stable with a slight increase. The downstream material processing is in the peak consumption season, and the demand for lithium carbonate in the power and energy storage sectors is growing [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - term long trades at low prices, with attention to trading rhythm and risk control [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 82,300 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,520 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,840 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 660 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 1,900 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,670 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Spodumene**: As of November 7, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was $970/ton, a weekly decrease of $15/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1219, a weekly increase of 0.16% [21]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of November 7, 2025, the average price of lithiophilite was 8,605 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 220 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 3,060 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [26]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,596.9 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons from August, a decline of 10.3%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.49%. The monthly export volume was 150.816 tons, a decrease of 218.09 tons from August, a decline of 59.12%, and a year - on - year decline of 9.07%. The monthly output was 47,140 tons, an increase of 1,260 tons from August, an increase of 2.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 47.59%. The operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [30]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of November 7, 2025, the average price was 121,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 14,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 211,050 tons, an increase of 18,950 tons from August, an increase of 9.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.25% [34]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 34,750 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 10,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 246,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from August, an increase of 2.63%, and a year - on - year increase of 35.93%. The operating rate was 59%, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1% [37]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 63,140 tons, a decrease of 2,720 tons from August, a decline of 4.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.56%. The operating rate was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable [42]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,920 tons, a decrease of 410 tons from August, a decline of 3.97%, and a year - on - year decline of 5.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 33,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [47]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 343,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,080 tons, an increase of 100 tons from August, an increase of 0.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 103.23% [50]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of September 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 46.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% and a year - on - year increase of 7.52%. The monthly production was 1,617,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 16.25%, and the sales volume was 1,604,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 14.98%. The cumulative export volume was 1.758 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 89.44% [52][57]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium or discount of the synthetic underlying asset is 0, and there is no arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices generally rose this week, with all except the Science and Technology Innovation 50 recording small increases. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large-cap blue-chip stocks outperforming small and medium-cap stocks. Market trading activity declined compared to last week. The A-share third-quarter reports overall performed well, providing bottom support for the market, but the significant decline in external demand in October is expected to drag on the economic fundamentals in the fourth quarter, having a certain negative impact on stock market sentiment. In the short term, there are no more positive news releases. Currently, after the disclosure of A-share third-quarter reports and without important domestic meetings this month, the market is in a policy and performance vacuum period. Without clear trading guidance, the market is expected to show a random walk pattern, and stock indices will remain volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for now [5][86] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Futures: IF2512 had a weekly increase of 0.60%, IH2512 rose 0.76%, IC2512 fell 0.17%, and IM2512 increased by 0.59%. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 increased by 0.89%, the CSI 500 fell 0.04%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.47% [8] 3.2. News Overview - As of November 5, 1035 companies announced interim dividends this year, with a total dividend amount of 735.686 billion yuan, exceeding last year's interim dividends, including 316 companies making their first interim dividends, which is neutral to bullish. - China announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, which is neutral. - In October, China's exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, imports increased by 1%, and the trade surplus was 90.07 billion US dollars; exports (in RMB) decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, imports increased by 1.4%, and the trade surplus was 640.49 billion yuan, which is neutral to bearish [11][12] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Main Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.19%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 0.01%, the SME 100 fell 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.65% [15] - **External Main Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 fell 1.75%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.19%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.26%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 4.07% [16] - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors rose, with sectors such as power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemicals strengthening, while the beauty care sector led the decline. Industry main funds generally showed net outflows, with the computer sector having a large net outflow and the coal sector having a small net inflow [20][24] - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 8.449 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 26.12 billion yuan, and northbound funds had a total trading volume of 9.8154 trillion yuan. The SHIBOR short-term interest rates showed differentiation, and the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contract basis fluctuated [31][28][39] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to show a random walk pattern, and stock indices will remain volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for now [86]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated slightly within a range. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. [6] - The resumption of previously overhauled plants has boosted domestic urea production. Next week, it is expected that 1 enterprise's plant will be shut down, and 3 - 5 shut - down enterprises' plants may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the probability of increased production is high. [6] - Agricultural demand release has slowed down, and urea enterprises have appropriately reduced prices for transactions. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has recovered due to improved sales, and industrial demand has increased moderately. However, considering new orders, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is expected to decline steadily or slightly next week. [6] - This week, urea enterprise inventories increased slightly. Agricultural rigid demand is gradually decreasing, while industrial and reserve demand is increasing moderately. Some urea enterprises maintain a weak balance between production and sales, and in a few regions, shipments are blocked due to environmental protection warnings, leading to an increase in enterprise inventories. In the short term, urea enterprise inventories may continue to accumulate. [6] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1640 - 1700 in the short term. [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: The domestic urea market fluctuated slightly within a range this week, with the average price in Shandong down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. [6] - **Supply**: Production is likely to increase next week due to the resumption of previously shut - down plants and considering potential malfunctions. [6] - **Demand**: Agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand from compound fertilizers has increased moderately but may decline next week. [6] - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories increased slightly this week and may continue to accumulate in the short term. [6] - **Strategy**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1640 - 1700 in the short term. [6] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 2.58% this week [9]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of November 7, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 67 [13]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific information on position analysis was summarized from the text. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 7, there were 4585 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, an increase of 4585 from last week [19]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 6, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1580 yuan/ton (down 20), and in Jiangsu was 1570 yuan/ton (down 20) [25]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 6, the FOB China price of urea was 377.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Basis**: As of November 6, the urea basis was - 64 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.4 Upstream Market - **Coal Price**: As of November 5, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - **Natural Gas Price**: As of November 6, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.41 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.35 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [36]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: As of November 6, China's urea production was 135.45 tons, up 3.92 tons (2.98% week - on - week), and the capacity utilization rate was 82.71%, up 2.39% from the previous period [39]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the port sample inventory was 7.9 tons, down 3.1 tons (28.18% week - on - week); as of November 5, the total enterprise inventory was 157.81 tons, up 2.38 tons (1.53% week - on - week) [43]. - **Export**: In September 2025, urea exports were 137.12 tons, up 72.12% month - on - month, and the average export price was 424.93 dollars/ton, up 93.01% month - on - month [46]. 3.6 Downstream Market - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04%, stable week - on - week, and is expected to decline steadily or slightly next week [49]. - **Melamine**: As of November 6, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 53.20%, up 3.22 percentage points from last week [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the fundamental negative factors in the natural rubber market were gradually digested, and rubber prices first declined and then rose. The offer price of imported rubber in the market decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. The futures market showed a weak oscillation, and the spot offer price of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly within the range. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, raw material prices are basically stable with relatively abundant supplies, while in Hainan, due to limited improvement in precipitation, tapping operations have resumed slowly, with a relatively small total supply of raw materials. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased significantly. The bonded warehouse has seen a slight decrease in inventory, while the general trade warehouse has a large increase. Overseas arrivals have increased, and the total inbound volume of warehouses in Qingdao has increased significantly month - on - month. However, tire factories have sufficient inventory after previous replenishment and are mostly on the sidelines regarding high - priced raw materials. - This week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. Next week, most enterprises will maintain stable production, but it is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The fundamental negative factors in the natural rubber market were gradually digested this week, with rubber prices first falling and then rising. Imported rubber offers declined, and the trading atmosphere was average. The futures market was weakly oscillating, and domestic natural rubber spot offers adjusted slightly. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has stable raw material prices and abundant supplies, while Hainan has slow recovery in tapping and limited raw material supply. Qingdao Port's total inventory has increased significantly, with a slight decrease in the bonded warehouse and a large increase in the general trade warehouse. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories are cautious about high - priced raw materials. The production of domestic tire enterprises is generally stable, but an individual enterprise may have a maintenance plan. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,700 - 15,200, and the nr2601 contract between 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.6%; the main contract price of 20 - rubber oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.67% [13]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 7, the spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 1 - 5 was - 75, and the spread between 20 - rubber contracts 1 - 2 was - 30 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 7, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 118,970 tons, a decrease of 1,930 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 48,586 tons, an increase of 3,931 tons from last week [27]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 6, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of November 6, the 20 - rubber basis was 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 156 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 465 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of November 6, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0.3) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 51.9 (-1.4) Thai baht/kg. As of November 7, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of November 6, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 14,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Import Quantity**: According to customs data, in September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - classified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4,717,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [45]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons, or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory was 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%; the general trade inventory was 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36% [49]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire exports were 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire exports were 6,390,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. - **Domestic Heavy - Truck Sales**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [59]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Strategy suggestion: The short - term price of the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,600 [7]. - Market review: This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped sharply and then rebounded slightly, with the spot price ranging from 9,750 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Sinopec and most sales companies of PetroChina lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 800 yuan/ton in total. The price of raw material butadiene dropped more than expected due to the dual negative impacts of the expected increase in domestic supply and the continuous decline in foreign market negotiation prices, leading to a significant increase in market bearish sentiment [8]. - Market outlook: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Recently, the supply of raw material butadiene is sufficient and the negotiation price has been falling, continuously dragging down the cost side. Downstream buyers are bargaining, causing the negotiation price of private resources to drop significantly. Some production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory have decreased. Next week, some plants will restart, and supply is expected to increase slightly. However, due to the expected increase in future domestic supply of the raw material, the cost side of cis - butadiene remains weak, and the situation of downstream terminal buyers firmly bargaining is difficult to change. The inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase slightly. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to the normal level this week, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. Next week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order demands. It is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Highlights - Strategy: The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,600 [7]. - Market review and outlook: As described in the core viewpoints above [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.41% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of November 7, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was 0 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of November 7, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,990 tons, unchanged from last week [22]. 3.3. Spot Market - Price: As of November 6, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - Basis: As of November 6, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from last week [27]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of November 6, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 575.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 740 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [30]. - Butadiene capacity utilization and inventory: As of November 7, the weekly capacity utilization of butadiene was 70.32%, an increase of 2.32% from last week; the port inventory was 29,800 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from last week [34]. 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from last month. As of November 6, the weekly capacity utilization of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 65.85%, a decrease of 1.1% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of November 6, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was 539 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of November 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 29,290 tons, a decrease of 1,590 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 25,770 tons, a decrease of 1,430 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 3,520 tons, a decrease of 160 tons from last week [45]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - Tire开工率: As of November 6, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. The production scheduling of maintenance enterprises has returned to normal, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization, and most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably [48]. - Export demand: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.87%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67% [51].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills' rapeseed stocks are depleted with widespread shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand as the temperature drops and the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean meal. Recently, influenced by trade optimism, the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal have rebounded from lows and strengthened in the short - term. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened in the near - month. Oil mills' rapeseed stocks are exhausted, and shutdowns are common, so rapeseed oil will continue to be in a de - stocking mode, which supports its price. But the supply of soybean oil is abundant and has a good substitution advantage, so the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs. After a continuous decline, the rapeseed oil futures price has recovered from the low recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9,564 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2,549 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The futures closing price of ICE rapeseed was 640.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1 Canadian dollar, and that of rapeseed was 5,120 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 391 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 133 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of rapeseed oil decreased by 2,830 hands to 211,735 hands, while those of rapeseed meal increased by 34,202 hands to 442,304 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil increased by 6,170 hands to - 2,365 hands, and those of rapeseed meal increased by 17,365 hands to 14,402 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 1,726 to 5,112, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 200 to 2,755 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,897.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, and the import cost of imported rapeseed was 7,864.44 yuan/ton, down 11.84 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 3.75, up 0.01. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 216 yuan/ton, down 127 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 1 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,240 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons, and the annual rapeseed production forecast was 13,446 thousand tons, up 1,068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 16 million tons, up 2 million tons, and that of rapeseed meal was 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 1 million tons, down 1 million tons, and the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 1.6%, down 1.33 percentage points. The imported rapeseed crushing profit was 662 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 3.8 million tons, down 0.4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 47.8 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 26.05 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 2.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 20.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 1.84 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 0.39 million tons, up 0.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 3,128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons, and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 450.86 billion yuan, up 1.29 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal was 21.78%, down 0.03 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 21.79%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil was 12.74%, down 1.43 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 25.75%, up 0.5 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 26.92%, up 0.18 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.7%, down 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 15.03%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures changed little on November 5, after significant price fluctuations in recent days, the market consolidated without a clear direction. The January rapeseed futures rose 0.30 Canadian dollars to close at 640.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary confirmed that China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons per year in the next three years, which boosted the US soybean futures price and benefited the domestic meal market [2]. - The leaders of Canada and China met in South Korea last week but failed to make a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The rapeseed operation rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region from Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - From November 1st to 6th, PE production increased by 2.67% to 660,700 tons week-on-week. From October 24th to 30th, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 2.4% and the packaging film operating rate down 1.3%. As of October 29th, the inventory of PE producers decreased by 19.16% to 416,000 tons week-on-week; as of October 24th, the social PE inventory decreased by 3.30% to 527,400 tons week-on-week. From October 25th to 31st, the cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 3.53% to 7,389 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the profit decreased by 234.86 yuan/ton to -360 yuan/ton; the cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 1.12% to 6,845 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the profit increased by 5.57 yuan/ton to 197.86 yuan/ton. L2601 rebounded after a decline, closing at 6,805 yuan/ton. In November, there will be less new maintenance capacity for PE, and two new units of Guangxi Petrochemical are about to be put into operation, resulting in high supply pressure. Affected by the restart of 400,000 tons of Lianyungang Petrochemical and 450,000 tons of Baolai units this week, PE production increased week-on-week. The downstream greenhouse film is in the peak season, and the operating rate of agricultural film is expected to remain high; the orders for packaging film are being delivered successively, and the operating rate is expected to gradually weaken. The inventory of producers and social inventory will continue to decline, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The accumulation of API and EIA inventories in the US, combined with the strengthening of the US dollar, has led to a recent weak and volatile international oil price. In the short term, L2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 6,740 - 6,850 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6,805 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,805 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6,886 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,935 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The trading volume was 305,198 lots, up 14,736 lots; the open interest was 578,172 lots, up 25,025 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was -81, up 6. The buy volume of the top 20 futures positions was 486,769 lots, up 23,574 lots; the sell volume was 565,354 lots, up 21,632 lots; the net buy volume was -78,585 lots, up 1,942 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,877.83 yuan/ton, down 43.48 yuan; the average price in East China was 7,114.76 yuan/ton, down 20.95 yuan. The basis was 72.83, down 34.47 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.57 US dollars per barrel, down 0.02 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 577.5 US dollars per ton, up 1 US dollar. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 731 US dollars per ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 741 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 80.86%, down 0.59% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 51.3%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, down 0.16%; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 49.53%, up 2.42% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.91%, up 0.34%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.37%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 10.64%, up 0.72% [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated November 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC futures contract V2601 fell and then rebounded, closing at 4,630 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased, and the operating rates of downstream pipes and profiles rose slightly. Inventory change was small, and the high - inventory accumulation trend slowed down. The cost of the calcium carbide method increased and losses deepened, while the cost of the ethylene method decreased and profits recovered. The high - operating state of PVC may continue. The operating rate of downstream PVC is expected to decline seasonally. Overseas demand is uncertain, and the contradiction between domestic supply and demand is significant, with high inventory pressure likely to persist. Technically, V2601 should focus on the support around 4,570 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The trading volume was 736,089 lots, a decrease of 32,196 lots. The open interest was 1,315,311 lots, an increase of 33,017 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 198,008 lots, a decrease of 23,628 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.08 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged at 4,780 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,644.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions remained unchanged at 2,800 yuan/ton, 2,673.33 yuan/ton, and 2,508 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly average prices of VCM and EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remained unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 54.46 tons, a decrease of 1.01 tons. The inventory in the East China region was 49.53 tons, a decrease of 0.99 tons, and the inventory in the South China region was 4.93 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.36%, a decrease of 1.09%. The 40 - day historical volatility remained unchanged at 10.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options of PVC was 14.22%, an increase of 0.53% [3] Group 4: Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 0.8% to 42% and the profile operating rate increasing by 1.96% to 37.83%. As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.09%. From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5,201 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of the ethylene method decreased to 5,288 yuan/ton. The calcium carbide method profit decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the ethylene method profit increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3]