Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyethylene (PE) futures main contract oscillated within a range this week due to the tug - of - war between weak supply - demand and rising coal costs. The L2509 contract closed at 7,290 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, down 0.37% from last week's close. - In terms of fundamentals, supply increased as multiple plants restarted, with PE production rising 3.89% to 660,200 tons and capacity utilization up 3.75% to 85.72%. Demand saw a slight improvement, with the average downstream operating rate up 0.4%. Inventory increased, but the overall inventory pressure was not significant. - Looking ahead, the next round of intensive maintenance for domestic PE is expected to start on August 15. Next week, more plants will restart, and production and capacity utilization are expected to rise. Due to the leap June, the demand for domestic greenhouse films is delayed, extending the off - season for downstream industries. The international oil price is expected to oscillate. The L2509 contract is expected to oscillate slightly in the 7,200 - 7,400 range, while the L2601 contract still faces pressure, with technical support around 7,200 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Price**: The PE futures main contract oscillated in the range of 7,251 - 7,344 yuan/ton. The L2509 contract closed at 7,290 yuan/ton, down 0.37% from last week [7]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: Multiple plants restarted, PE production rose 3.89% to 660,200 tons, and capacity utilization increased 3.75% to 85.72% [7]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate increased 0.4%, with the agricultural film operating rate up 0.4% [7]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory increased 19.09% to 515,400 tons, and social inventory rose 2.49% to 575,700 tons [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased 2.04% to 7,702 yuan/ton, and the profit increased 139 yuan/ton to - 352 yuan/ton. The cost of coal - based LLDPE increased 2.50% to 6,243 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased 206 yuan/ton to 989 yuan/ton [7]. - **Outlook**: The next round of intensive maintenance is expected to start on August 15. Next week, more plants will restart, and production and capacity utilization are expected to rise. The demand for greenhouse films is delayed, and the international oil price is expected to oscillate. The L2509 contract is expected to oscillate slightly in the 7,200 - 7,400 range, while the L2601 contract still faces pressure [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The PE futures main contract oscillated, and trading volume decreased [9]. - **Open Interest and Warehouse Receipts**: As the delivery month approached, the open interest of the 09 contract decreased, and the number of registered warehouse receipts remained stable [14]. - **Calendar Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread weakened slightly, the 1 - 5 spread oscillated slightly, the 5 - 9 spread strengthened slightly, and the L - PP spread strengthened slightly [20][27]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Prices**: Domestic LLDPE prices ranged from 7,270 - 7,480 yuan/ton, and the CFR China quote was 856 US dollars/ton [33]. - **Basis**: The futures market was at a discount, and the basis weakened [38]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Ethylene Price**: The RMB price of ethylene remained stable this week [42]. - **Ethylene Production and Imports**: In June, ethylene production decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Supply**: In July, PE production was 2.726 million tons, an increase from the previous month. This week, PE capacity utilization increased [49][54]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased, while the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased. The profit of oil - based LLDPE increased, and the profit of coal - based LLDPE decreased. The import profit of LLDPE fluctuated slightly, and the import window was open [59][64][69]. - **Inventory**: PE inventory increased this week, but the inventory pressure was not significant [74]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - **Prices**: The prices of PE downstream products remained stable [77]. - **Operating Rates and Production**: The average downstream operating rate increased 0.4% this week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products increased 5.0% year - on - year. The operating rates of agricultural film, pipes, and packaging film all increased. From January to June 2025, the export value of plastic products decreased 1.30% year - on - year [80][86][91]. 3.7 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PE was 12.30%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 12.61% [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - and sentiment - related disturbances are decreasing. After the price correction, the coking coal futures price is expected to rise. The coking coal main contract is expected to move in a volatile manner due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, more tariff disturbances, and repeated fluctuations in market sentiment [2][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 1.883 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 tons. The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons [8]. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1.92772 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.76% [8]. - The warehouse receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan is 1,230, and the equivalent futures price is 1,010 [8]. - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton. The profitability rate of steel mills is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 63.21 percentage points [8]. - The iron - making water production at the demand end remains high. The daily average iron - making water production is 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 86,200 tons [8]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue stable - growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The 800 - billion - yuan list of "two major" construction projects this year has been fully issued, and the central budgetary investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically issued [9]. - Overseas, Trump has issued a military threat to Russia, and the US and Russia have agreed to hold a Putin - Trump summit. The US will impose an additional 15% tariff on Japan [9]. - In terms of supply and demand, the overall inventory at the mine end is decreasing. The clean coal inventory is shifting from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks, with the inventory being moderately high [9]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - As of August 8, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts is 916,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 152,000 lots. The price difference between the January and September contracts of coking coal is 157.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 points [16]. - As of August 8, the number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 0 lots, unchanged from the previous period. The ratio of the September contracts of coke and coking coal is 1.35, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 points [22]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of August 7, 2025, the flat - price of coke at Rizhao Port is 1,480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of August 8, the basis of coking coal is - 129.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 184 points [26]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines this week is 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4%. The daily average output of raw coal is 1.883 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 tons; the raw coal inventory is 476,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,800 tons; the daily average output of clean coal is 755,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons; the clean coal inventory is 245,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons [30]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants this week is 36.2%, a week - on - week increase of 1.19%. The daily output of clean coal is 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons; the clean coal inventory is 288,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 tons [30]. - From January to June, the output of raw coal from industrial enterprises above the designated size is 2.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the output of raw coal from industrial enterprises above the designated size is 420 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%, with a daily average output of 14.04 million tons. In June 2025, China's coking coal output is 4.06438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [54]. - In 2024, China's coal imports are 540 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%, setting a new record high, including a cumulative import of 121.895 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year increase of 19.62%. In June, the total import of coking coal is 9.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.30%. From January to June, the cumulative import is 52.9007 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.26%, and the import growth rate has been negative year - on - year for 3 consecutive months [56]. 3.3.2 Mid - stream - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 73.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%. The daily output of coke is 520,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons; the coke inventory is 446,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,900 tons; the total coking coal inventory is 832,750 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,100 tons; the available days of coking coal are 12.0 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 days [35]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1.92772 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.76% [35]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports nationwide is 4.6305 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 308,900 tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports nationwide is 2.7355 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,500 tons. The rapid price increase mode of coking coal is approaching an end, and the demand has slightly slowed down, with overall transactions mainly for rigid demand [39]. 3.3.3 Downstream - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills is 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 86,200 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 63.21 percentage points [46]. - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 808,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 48,700 tons; the available days of coking coal are 12.99 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 days; the inventory of pulverized coal injection is 412,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,200 tons; the available days of pulverized coal injection are 11.95 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 days [50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market's major indices rose this week, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. Market attention shifted to corporate semi - annual reports after the Politburo meeting, and the net profit growth of reported companies increased. Trading activity declined compared to last week [8]. - The bond market entered a repair phase. Although the central bank continued net withdrawals in the open - market operations, the bond market stabilized. The potential VAT levy on treasury bonds may widen the spread between new and old bonds [8]. - The commodity market faced a retracement risk. Although the Sino - US tariff truce was extended and trade relations improved marginally, domestic fundamentals remained weak [8]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar was under pressure due to the dovish signals from the Fed and weak economic data, while the euro was boosted by the weakening dollar in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stocks**: The CSI 300 rose 1.23%, and CSI 300 stock index futures rose 1.27%. Small - and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks, with IM>IC>IF>IH in terms of gains. The recommendation is to buy on dips [8]. - **Bonds**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.15% with a weekly change of - 0.09BP, and the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.18%. The suggestion is to buy on dips [8]. - **Commodities**: The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.86%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 0.10%. Due to weak fundamentals, there is a risk of retracement. The recommendation is to buy on dips [8]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar rose 0.65%, and the euro - US dollar 2509 contract rose 0.70%. The suggestion is to observe cautiously [8]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic**: The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the State Council plans to gradually implement free pre - school education. Several departments issued policies on finance and foreign exchange remittance [16]. - **International**: The US - EU trade tension eased as the EU postponed tariff counter - measures. Trump signed executive orders to impose tariffs on multiple countries, and there were speculations about a new Fed chair [18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In July, exports increased by 7.2% and imports by 4.1% in US dollars, both better than expected [13]. - **US**: The factory orders in June decreased by 4.8%, and the initial jobless claims in the week ending August 2 increased to 226,000 [19]. - **EU**: The eurozone's June PPI increased by 0.8%, and retail sales increased by 0.3% [19]. - **UK**: The central bank interest rate remained at 4% [19]. - **Germany**: The industrial output in June decreased by 1.9%, and the trade surplus was 14.9 billion euros [19]. - **France**: The industrial output in June increased by 3.8%, and the trade deficit was 7.623 billion euros [19]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Key economic data to be released next week include the UK's July unemployment rate, the US's July CPI, Germany's July CPI, and China's July social consumer goods retail sales [81].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Red Date Market Weekly Report: Improved Purchase and Sale Atmosphere, Red Dates Continue to Rise" [2] - Report Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The purchase and sale atmosphere in the red date market has improved, and the inventory reduction process is going well. The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market is focused on the weather in the production areas. The new - season production is expected to decrease, which supports the upward movement of red date futures prices. It is recommended to conduct mostly long - side trading and continuously monitor the new - season production. Future trading should pay attention to weather impacts and the consumer side [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou red dates (Zhengzao) rose this week, with a weekly increase of 5.68% [10][14]. - **Inventory Situation**: In the 32nd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 72.62% [10][38]. - **New - Season Production Forecast**: Based on the situation in each production area compared with the normal production in 2022, the new - season production is initially estimated to be 5 - 10% lower than that in 2022 and 20 - 25% lower than that in 2024, with an expected output of 56 - 620,000 tons [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzao rose, with a weekly increase of 5.68% [14]. - **Top 20 Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in red date futures was - 14,042 lots [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzao warehouse receipts was 9,214 [18]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2509 and 2601 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange red date futures was - 1,155 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey dates and the main contract of red date futures was - 1,340 yuan/ton [23]. - **New - Season Purchase Price**: As of August 8, 2025, the purchase price of unified - grade red dates in Aksu was 4.8 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.2 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6 yuan/kg [26]. - **First - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 8, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.60 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.5 yuan/jin [29]. - **Super - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 8, 2025, the wholesale price of super - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei was 10.2 yuan/kg, and in Henan was 10 yuan/kg [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory**: In the 32nd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 72.62% [38]. - **Supply Side - Production Forecast**: The crops are growing well, and the red date production in the 2024/25 season is expected to recover [43]. - **Demand Side - Export Volume**: In June 2025, China's red date export volume was 1,765,107 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 17,115,674 kg, a month - on - month increase of 11.50% [46]. - **Demand Side - BOCE Trading**: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Zao Hao brand did not have any transactions [50]. 3.4 Option Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of red dates this week is presented, but no specific data is given [52]. - **Stock Market - Haoxiangni**: A graph of Haoxiangni's price - earnings ratio is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is in a game between short - term supply surplus and uncertainty of future ship purchases. The recent favorable rainfall in Canada and potential resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade add supply pressure. High - frequency data shows an increase in July palm oil production and a decline in exports, but positive news from the US and Indonesia's biodiesel sectors boosts the oil market. In China, it's the off - season for oil consumption, with ample supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, yet reduced mill operating rates and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply pressure. The market is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is supported by concerns about trade policies and low near - month rapeseed arrivals, while being suppressed by high US soybean good - rate, high domestic soybean meal inventory, and expected decline in pig存栏. The market is volatile, and investors are advised to take a bullish view and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Strategy Suggestion**: Short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 contract closed at 9574 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Favorable rainfall in Canada and potential Sino - Australian trade resumption add supply pressure. High - frequency data on palm oil is mixed, and in China, the off - season consumption, ample supply, and high inventory pressure are offset by reduced mill operating rates and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases [9]. Rapeseed Meal - **Strategy Suggestion**: A bullish view is recommended, and attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [11]. - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 contract closed at 2773 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: High US soybean good - rate, high domestic soybean meal inventory, and expected decline in pig存栏 suppress the market, while trade policy concerns and low near - month rapeseed arrivals provide support [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 140,480 lots, down 48,633 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed up, with a total position of 356,167 lots, down 63,512 lots from the previous week [17]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures were + 21,321, an increase from last week's + 17,912. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures were + 22,737, an increase from last week's + 16,688 [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,487 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 9,063 lots [26][27]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week, and the basis was + 126 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,660 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, and the basis was - 113 yuan/ton [34][40]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was + 13 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was + 267 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [46]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 09 contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.45, and the average spot price ratio was 3.647 [49]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals**: The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,174 yuan/ton, narrowing this week. The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 594 yuan/ton, with narrow - range fluctuations. The 09 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 335 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 272 yuan/ton as of Thursday [59][65]. 3.3 Industry Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: As of July 25, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 100,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 490,000 tons, 530,000 tons, and 395,000 tons respectively [71]. - **Supply - Side Import Pressing Profit**: As of August 7, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 662 yuan/ton [75]. - **Supply - Side Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 31st week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 62,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 15.17% [79]. - **Supply - Side Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 424,300 tons (69.69%) and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [83]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 786,000 tons, unchanged from last week with a 0.03% month - on - month decline. In June 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28,800 tons (23.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [87]. - **Demand - Side Consumption and Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 476,900 tons, and the catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan [91]. - **Demand - Side Weekly Contract Volume Change**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume was 128,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons (10.05%) from last week [95]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side Weekly Inventory Change**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 23,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons (35.29%) from last week [99]. - **Supply - Side Import Volume Change**: In June 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35,600 tons (15.17%) and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [103]. - **Demand - Side Monthly Feed Output Comparison**: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,762,100 tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 24.93% as of August 1, up 3.56% from last week, at a slightly higher level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [110].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that with the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and rising tariff disturbances leading to fluctuating market sentiment, the main contract of coke should be treated as oscillating [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting to discuss "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation." The Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Natural Resources issued a plan to renovate 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027. Overseas, Trump proposed a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, and Apple promised a $600 billion investment. Trump also imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, and India is negotiating within a 21 - day window [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Raw material inventory has increased, and the current iron - water production is 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. The coal mine inventory pressure has eased, and the coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Given the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, tariff disturbances, and fluctuating market sentiment, the main contract of coke should be considered to be oscillating [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 8, the contract position increased by 428 lots, the coke 1 - 9 contract spread increased by 41.50 points, the registered warehouse receipt increased by 40 lots, and the futures steel - coke ratio decreased by 0.08 points [9][11][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 7, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the coke basis decreased by 66.50. From January to June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 2.4 billion tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase. In June, the output was 420 million tons, a 3.0% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Coking Industry**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises increased by 0.27% to 73.75%, and the daily coke output increased by 0.19 to 52.02. Coke inventory decreased by 1.89 to 44.63, coking coal inventory decreased by 11.31 to 832.75, and the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.21 days to 12.0 days [32][34]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons from last week but an increase of 8.62 tons compared to last year. As of August 1, 2025, the total coke inventory increased by 6.24 tons to 884.59 tons, a 15.17% year - on - year increase. In terms of inventory structure, port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory decreased [36][38][40]. - **Other Data**: In June, China exported 510,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 41.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export from January to June was 3.51 million tons, a 27.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase, and the cumulative export from January to July was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, the second - hand housing price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. As of the week of August 3, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - medium cities increased by 15.22% month - on - month but decreased by 15.43% year - on - year [45][47][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and high warehouse receipts, the main contract of caustic soda futures declined significantly this week. The purchase price of Shandong alumina enterprises decreased, leading to a drop in the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong. Next week, there are many planned maintenance devices in the Northwest, East, and North China, which may cause a slight decline in the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda. The weak trend of Shandong liquid caustic soda prices may continue. In terms of futures, the decline of the SH2509 contract may be restricted by the delivery logic, and SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: As of August 8, 2025, the SH2509 contract closed at 2,446 yuan/ton, down 3.66% from last week's close. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 2,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply side, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 1.2% week - on - week to 85.1%. Demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.13% week - on - week to 85.58% last week; the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 84.97% this week, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 0.38% week - on - week to 59.28%. Inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 8.84% week - on - week to 46.17 tons. The profit of Shandong chlor - alkali increased by 45 yuan/ton to 278 yuan/ton compared with last week [8]. - **Outlook**: Next week, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda may decline slightly. The alumina industry is expected to operate stably, while the non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season with weak demand. The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda may continue to be weak. In the futures market, the decline of SH2509 may be restricted, and SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main contract of caustic soda futures declined significantly this week, and the position of the 09 contract decreased slightly [9]. - **Spot Market - Shandong 32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The benchmark price is 800 yuan/ton, and the converted - to - 100% price is 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot decline is less than that of futures, and the market is slightly at a discount [14][20]. - **Spot Market - Other Regions' 32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The market price in Henan is 912 yuan/ton, with a converted - to - 100% price of 2,850 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 880 yuan/ton, with a converted - to - 100% price of 2,750 yuan/ton [25][30]. - **Spot Market - Shandong 99% Flake Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine**: The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong is 3,350 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine is - 150 yuan/ton [35]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream - Raw Salt**: The prices of raw salt in the Northwest and Shandong remained stable [41]. - **Upstream - Steam Coal**: The price of Qinhuangdao 5500K steam coal rose to 678 yuan/ton [46]. - **Industry Chain - Supply**: In July, the caustic soda output was 3.5833 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.88%. This week, the operating rate rose to 85.1% [49]. - **Industry Chain - Demand - Alumina**: In July, the alumina output was 8.0662 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 85.58% [54]. - **Industry Chain - Demand - Non - Aluminum Downstream**: This week, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 84.97%. The prices of alumina and viscose staple fiber were basically stable [58][61]. - **Industry Chain - Import and Export - Import**: In June, the caustic soda import volume was 0.09 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 0.42 million tons [67]. - **Industry Chain - Import and Export - Export**: In June, the caustic soda export volume was 35.05 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.0304 million tons [73]. - **Industry Chain - Inventory - Liquid Caustic Soda Sample Inventory**: The weekly enterprise sample inventory was 46.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.84% [78]. - **Industry Chain - Profit - ECU Profit**: This week, the chlor - alkali profit in Shandong increased week - on - week [81]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 27.93%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 24.57% [84].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.08」 沪铜市场周报 成本支撑供需放缓，沪铜或将震荡运行 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 「 期现市场情况」 本周沪铜合约走强，现货升水 图1、主力合约收盘及持仓 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000 240000 260000 280000 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 2024-09-04 2024-11-04 2025-01-04 2025-03-04 2025-05-04 2025-07-04 主力合约收盘价及持仓 CUZL.SHF CUZL.SHF 图2、铜价期现基差走势 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 64000 66000 68000 70000 72000 74000 76000 78000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, there was insufficient positive driving force, and the rebound of rubber prices was limited. The import rubber market had active restocking by early buyers, and factory inquiries were based on rigid demand. The spot offer of domestic natural rubber followed the upward trend of the market, but the downstream buying enthusiasm was average, and the actual transactions in the market were mainly based on rigid demand [6]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Continuous rainfall in Yunnan has significantly hindered tapping operations, and the purchase price has remained high and volatile. The weather in Hainan is favorable, and raw material supply has maintained seasonal output. However, the spot market has faced difficulties in price - adding transactions, and some processing plants have become more cautious about high - priced raw materials, with the purchase price of latex stabilizing after rising [6]. - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has been decreasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. The arrival and warehousing of overseas supplies have remained low, and the overall warehousing rate has decreased month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices to some extent, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month [6]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly this week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises have stopped or reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some overhauled all - steel tire enterprises have resumed work and moderately increased production, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some enterprises have still arranged overhauls, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, with limited overall fluctuation [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,800 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the driving force for rubber prices was insufficient, and the rebound was limited. The import rubber market had active restocking, and domestic natural rubber spot prices followed the market upward, but downstream buying was mainly for rigid demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has been affected by rainfall, while Hainan has normal weather. Qingdao port inventory is decreasing, and the demand for domestic tires has limited fluctuations [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,250 - 16,000, and the nr2510 contract between 12,300 - 12,800 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed up this week, with a week - on - week increase of 2.57%. The main contract price of 20 - grade rubber also closed up, with a week - on - week increase of 2% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content is provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spreads**: As of August 8, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 975, and the spread between September and October contracts of 20 - grade rubber was - 60 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 8, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 176,320 tons, a decrease of 1,310 tons from last week. The warehouse receipts of 20 - grade rubber were 42,437 tons, an increase of 2,721 tons from last week [25]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of August 7, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - **Basis Trends**: As of August 7, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 339 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton from last week. The non - standard basis was - 1,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 915 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of August 7, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54 (- 0.3) Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 48.3 (+ 0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of August 8, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 42 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.6 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of August 7, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from last week [44]. 3.3.2 Import Volume - In June 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - grade, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [47]. 3.3.3 Inventory in Qingdao - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory was 75,500 tons, a decline of 0.40%, and the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decline of 1.47%. The warehousing rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points. The warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [51]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Exports**: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, China's cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 279,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.76%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.62%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 407,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.34% [57]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 15% compared with June and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, while the cotton yarn futures contract declined by 0.78%. Domestically, cotton is in a destocking state, with a tight supply before the new cotton goes on the market, and the basis is firm. On the demand side, the textile industry shows characteristics of the off - season, the overall operating rate continues to decline, and enterprises purchase raw materials mainly for rigid demand. In 2025, the overall planting area of Chinese cotton has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth. Overall, due to the weak downstream demand and market expectations for quotas, it is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined by 0.78% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: U.S. cotton futures prices are weak. Domestically, cotton is destocking, supply is tight before new cotton is available, and the basis is strong. The textile industry is in the off - season, with reduced profits for inland spinning enterprises, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and enterprises purchasing raw materials mainly for rigid demand. The overall planting area of Chinese cotton in 2025 has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of high temperatures in Xinjiang on new crop growth. It is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro - factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **U.S. Cotton Market**: The price of the U.S. cotton December contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.45%. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 1.09% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions increased by 0.33% month - on - month, and the CFTC net position increased by 1.47% month - on - month [10]. - **U.S. Cotton Export**: As of the week ending July 31, U.S. cotton export shipments were 182,300 bales, with the total export shipments reaching 11,191,200 bales, a 1% increase from the previous year. The net increase in cotton export sales for the week was 92,100 bales. As of August 5, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was reported at 77.75 cents per pound, a 0.32% increase month - on - month [15]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined by 0.78%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 20,574, and that in cotton yarn futures was 119 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,252, and that of cotton yarn futures was 83 [23][29][34]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,178 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,620 yuan per ton. As of August 7, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - jet yarn) was 14,760 yuan per ton [44][54]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 6, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was reported at 13,480 yuan per ton, a 0.44% increase month - on - month; the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was reported at 14,282 yuan per ton, a 0.34% increase month - on - month. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was reported at 21,206 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [58]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of August 6, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 896 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,698 yuan per ton [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory**: As of June, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 18.18%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [65]. - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In June 2025, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the total imported cotton was 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. In June 2025, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 670,000 tons [69]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey fabric inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Export**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was reported at 1,204,820,700 US dollars, a month - on - month decline of 4.62%. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was reported at 1,526,671,400 US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 12.44% [77]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Domestic Retail**: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail value of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was reported at 742.59 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20.98%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate was reported at 3.1%, a month - on - month decline of 6.06% [81]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options in the cotton options market this week was provided [82]. - **Stock Market - Xinong Development**: Information on the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development was provided [88].