1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, styrene lacked unilateral driving factors, and the futures main contract EB2509 oscillated slightly in the range of 7,215 - 7,355 yuan/ton. As of August 8, 2025, the EB2509 contract closed at 7,235 yuan/ton, down 0.84% from last week's closing price [7]. - On the supply side, a new 670,000 - ton Jingbo plant was put into operation, and the operating loads of some plants were adjusted. This week, styrene production decreased by 0.64% month - on - month to 359,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.19% month - on - month to 77.73% [7]. - On the demand side, the operating rates of styrene downstream industries changed differently this week. The EPS operating rate decreased by 10.58% month - on - month to 43.67%, the PS operating rate increased by 1.7% month - on - month to 55%, the ABS operating rate increased by 5.2% month - on - month to 71.1%, the UPR operating rate increased by 1% month - on - month to 30%, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased by 0.07% month - on - month to 73.35% [7]. - In terms of inventory, this week, styrene factory inventory decreased by 2.71% month - on - month to 211,500 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 3.05% month - on - month to 159,000 tons, and South China port inventory increased by 4.73% month - on - month to 15,500 tons [7]. - In terms of cost, this week, the average spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased slightly, the CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable, the non - integrated cost of styrene dropped to 7,563.15 yuan/ton, and due to the weak styrene spot, the non - integrated profit of styrene dropped to - 218 yuan/ton [7]. - Looking ahead, next week, the output of the new Jingbo plant will increase, and the impact of restarted plants in Northeast and North China will expand. Production and capacity utilization are expected to increase month - on - month. The non - integrated profit has fallen to a loss level, and in the long - term, the high - operating state of plants may be difficult to sustain. Recently, the EPS plants under centralized maintenance are about to restart, and some PS and ABS plants plan to increase production. Short - term demand is expected to increase. However, the poor demand in downstream industries and the expectation of finished product inventory accumulation may suppress the growth of styrene demand. Styrene supply and demand will both increase, but overall, the situation of supply exceeding demand is expected to continue, and inventory pressure may continue to rise. In terms of cost, the impact of OPEC+ production increase continues, the demand in the US fuel peak season still exists, and a meeting between the US and Russian presidents is upcoming. International oil prices are expected to oscillate. The premium or discount of the EB2509 contract is not large, and in the short - term, it is expected to oscillate in the range of around 7,200 - 7,400 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The futures main contract EB2509 oscillated slightly in the range of 7,215 - 7,355 yuan/ton, closing at 7,235 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, down 0.84% from last week [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side: New plant put into operation, production decreased by 0.64% to 359,200 tons, capacity utilization decreased by 1.19% to 77.73%. Demand - side: Downstream operating rates changed differently. Inventory: Factory inventory decreased by 2.71% to 211,500 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 3.05% to 159,000 tons, South China port inventory increased by 4.73% to 15,500 tons. Cost: Non - integrated cost dropped to 7,563.15 yuan/ton, non - integrated profit dropped to - 218 yuan/ton [7]. - Outlook: Next week, production and capacity utilization are expected to increase. Short - term demand may increase, but overall supply exceeds demand, and inventory pressure may rise. International oil prices are expected to oscillate, and the EB2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of around 7,200 - 7,400 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The EB futures main contract oscillated in a range, new warehouse receipts were registered this week. The 09 contract's position - changing is about to start, and the position volume decreased. The 09 - 10 spread oscillated slightly [8][12]. - Spot Market: The spot price fluctuated in a range, and the futures price had a slight premium [16]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - Upstream: Ethylene price fluctuated slightly, East China pure benzene price rebounded after a decline. In June, ethylene production decreased month - on - month, and imports increased month - on - month [22][26]. - Supply: In July, there was no new styrene production capacity. Production was 1.6011 million tons, up 5.83% month - on - month and 22.96% year - on - year. The production capacity base increased, but the operating rate decreased month - on - month [32][36]. - Demand: EPS, PS, and ABS prices dropped slightly. Downstream operating rates changed differently. This week, the EPS operating rate decreased, while the PS, ABS, and UPR operating rates increased, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased [39][44][48][53]. - Import and Export: In June, styrene imports were 21,400 tons, up month - on - month and year - on - year; exports were 14,500 tons, down month - on - month and year - on - year [56]. - Inventory: Port inventory was 174,500 tons, factory inventory was 211,500 tons. East China port inventory was 159,000 tons, South China port inventory was 15,500 tons [61][65]. - Cost and Profit: Non - integrated cost decreased, and process losses increased. Import profit continued to be in the red, and the import window was closed [69][73]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the styrene main contract was reported at 18.88%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money options was around 18.53% [77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The macro - aspect shows that the Fed's expectation of a September interest rate cut is rising, and tariff disturbances are increasing, leading to repeated fluctuations in market sentiment. The silicon - iron main contract should be treated as oscillating [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro**: On July 30, the China Iron and Steel Association's meeting focused on "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation". The new rural highway improvement plan aims to reconstruct 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027 [6]. - **Overseas**: Trump proposed about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, with Apple promising a $600 billion investment. Trump also imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, and India is negotiating within a 21 - day window [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: After profit improvement, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks, and inventory has also increased. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and steel demand is generally weak. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is 1 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is 150 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the silicon - iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Treat the silicon - iron main contract as oscillating due to the macro - situation [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 8, the silicon - iron futures contract's open interest was 463,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 63,000 lots. The 1 - 9 contract monthly spread was 186, a week - on - week increase of 56 points. The warehouse receipt quantity was 19,646, a week - on - week decrease of 2,396. The Ningxia silicon - iron price was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [12][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the silicon - iron basis was - 242 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 points [20]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Production**: This week (August 7), the national silicon - iron capacity utilization rate was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The daily average output was 15,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45% (665 tons). The five major steel types' silicon - iron weekly demand was 20,266.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.73%, and the national silicon - iron weekly supply was 109,100 tons [26]. - **Inventory**: This week (August 7), the national silicon - iron inventory was 71,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.42% (6,180 tons). Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 6,400 tons to 40,800 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 300 tons to 9,100 tons [29]. - **Upstream**: As of August 4, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron were unchanged. As of August 7, the average price of Ningxia semi - coke was 636 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton [35]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 390,000 tons but an increase of 862,000 tons compared to last year. From January to June 2025, the total silicon - iron export volume was 200,100 tons, a 10.09% decrease compared to the same period last year [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased by about 0.84%. Globally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are favorable, and Brazil shows strong production signs, leading to a loose supply expectation and pressuring the raw sugar price. In China, the profit outside the quota remains relatively high, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the food and beverage industry has restocking needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks is picking up. Currently, the inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The estimated sugar production for the 2025/26 season is 1120 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the expected increase in imports and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch: consumption, and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. The import expectation increase and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.05% this week. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar were 199,477 contracts, a 0.36% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short positions were 261,625 contracts, a 1.21% increase; the non - commercial net positions were - 62,148 contracts, a 4.05% decrease. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 30,938 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 18,545 contracts [11][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5830 yuan/ton. As of August 5, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5584 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4398 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5683 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4474 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease. As of August 5, the profit of imported Brazilian sugar inside the quota was 1457 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase from last week; outside the quota, it was 271 yuan/ton, a 7.97% increase. The profit of imported Thai sugar inside the quota was 1381 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; outside the quota, it was 172 yuan/ton, a 12.42% increase [24][27][33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a 19.7% year - on - year decrease [37][41][45]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a 12.00% increase from the previous period, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a 11.45% increase. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a 10.61% decrease from the previous period; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a 14.24% increase [49][54]. 3.4 Option and Stock - related Markets - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is presented, but specific data is not summarized here. - **Stock Market**: Information about Nanning Sugar Industry's price - to - earnings ratio is presented, but specific data is not summarized here.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon-manganese market is expected to fluctuate. The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation is rising, tariff disturbances are increasing, and market sentiment is fluctuating. Macro - policies support the industry, and the supply - demand situation shows that production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, and the cost and profit situation varies by region. Technically, the weekly K - line of manganese - silicon is bearish [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Macro - aspect**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue growth - promoting plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The "two major" construction project list of 800 billion yuan and 735 billion yuan of central budgetary investment have been basically allocated. Overseas, there are military threats from the US to Russia, a planned Putin - Trump summit, and the US may impose an additional 15% tariff on Japan [6]. - **Supply - demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 100,000 tons, and the downstream hot - metal production is at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 120 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 70 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement price in July has increased, and attention should be paid to the steel - making tender price in August [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Treat the silicon - manganese market as fluctuating due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, more tariff disturbances, and volatile market sentiment [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 8, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 623,000 lots, a decrease of 35,000 lots from the previous period. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts was 98, an increase of 24 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 76,045, a decrease of 1,809. The spread between the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts was 274, a decrease of 6 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The basis was - 176 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 points [24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 43.43%, an increase of 1.25%. The daily output was 27,975 tons, an increase of 715 tons. The weekly demand for five major steel types of silicon - manganese was 125,200 tons, an increase of 1.20%, and the weekly supply was 195,825 tons, an increase of 2.62% [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 161,500 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons. Inventory in different regions showed different changes [32]. - **Upstream**: The price of South African manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased by 3 yuan/ton - degree to 34 yuan/ton - degree, and the Australian manganese ore price remained unchanged at 51 yuan/ton - degree. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 110,000 tons to 4.385 million tons. The arrival volume of manganese ore from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon decreased significantly. The northern region's spot production profit was - 85 yuan/ton, and the southern region's was - 410 yuan/ton [38][44][48]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous week but an increase of 86,200 tons compared to last year. The Hebei Steel silicon - manganese tender price in July was 5,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to June [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2420 in the short term [7] - The overall domestic methanol market is boosted by the macro - environment, but the port methanol market has limited upward space due to high import expectations. The port market shows an oscillating and weakening trend, while the inland market rises [8] - Recently, the output of the restored methanol production capacity is less than the loss of the overhauled and reduced - production capacity, leading to a slight decrease in the overall output [8] - The inventory of inland enterprises decreases this week, while the port inventory accumulates significantly. The olefin industry's starting rate rises slightly this week but is expected to decline next week [8] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2350 - 2420 range [7] - Market trend: The average price of the domestic port methanol market drops this week, with an oscillating and weakening trend. The inland market rises, with the price in the Ordos northern line ranging from 2065 - 2110 yuan/ton and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranging from 2320 - 2345 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: The overall methanol output decreases slightly. Inland enterprise inventory decreases, and port inventory accumulates. The olefin industry's starting rate rises slightly this week but may decline next week [8] 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillates and closes down this week, with a decline of 0.42% [13] - Inter - period spread: As of August 8, the MA 9 - 1 spread is - 92 [17] - Position analysis: Not provided in the content - Warehouse receipts: As of August 7, the Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts are 8688, an increase of 142 compared with last week [25] 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 8, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area is 2382.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia is 2105 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 277.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with last week [31] - Foreign price: As of August 7, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port is 270 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port is 63 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton compared with last week [37] - Basis: As of August 8, the Zhengzhou methanol basis is - 0.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week [41] 3.4. Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of August 6, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal is 670 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of August 7, the NYMEX natural gas closes at 3.08 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.02 dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [44] - Industry: As of August 7, China's methanol output is 1845225 tons, a decrease of 67900 tons compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a decrease of 3.55% month - on - month [50] - Inventory: As of August 6, the total port inventory is 92.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises is 29.37 tons, a decrease of 3.08 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 9.50% month - on - month; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 24.08 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 4.37% month - on - month [53] - Import: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 5.58% compared with last week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume is 537.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.68%. As of August 7, the methanol import profit is 41.04 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.4 yuan/ton compared with last week [56] - Downstream: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 85.11%, an increase of 1.5% month - on - month. As of August 8, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared with last week [59][62] 3.5. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC futures oscillated within a range this week due to the game between weak supply - demand and favorable coal costs. As of August 8, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 4,993 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from last week's close [8]. - In August, after the new production capacity is put into operation, the operating load will gradually increase, and PVC supply is expected to show an upward trend. Next week, the 900,000 - ton plant of Fujian Wanhua will operate at full capacity, and some maintenance plants will restart, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise month - on - month. Domestic downstream demand is in the off - season, with only rigid procurement. Although the Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December and the anti - dumping policy release is delayed, the rainy season still hinders the transmission of overseas demand [8]. - In terms of cost, next week, the supply and demand of domestic calcium carbide will tend to be loose, and the price may fall; the ethylene US dollar market has sufficient supply, and the price is expected to remain stable. Currently, the premium of the V2509 contract is not large, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 4,900 - 5,100 yuan in the short term; the V2601 contract still faces pressure in the future, and technically, attention should be paid to the support around 5,040 yuan [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: The V2509 contract closed at 4,993 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from last week [8]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 2.62% week - on - week to 79.46% due to the restart of plants such as Zhongyan and Zhongtai [8]. - **Demand**: The downstream PVC operating rate increased by 0.8% week - on - week to 42.85%. Among them, the pipe operating rate decreased by 0.87% week - on - week to 32.09%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 0.09% week - on - week to 36.91% [8]. - **Inventory**: The PVC social inventory increased by 7.49% week - on - week to 776,300 tons [8]. - **Cost**: The average national cost of calcium carbide method increased by 138 yuan/ton to 4,977 yuan/ton due to the shortage of calcium carbide caused by power rationing; the average national cost of ethylene method decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 5,596 yuan/ton due to the stable CFR Northeast Asia price of ethylene and slight exchange - rate fluctuations [8]. - **Profit**: The profit of calcium carbide method decreased by 231 yuan/ton to - 252 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene method decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 489 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price and Warehouse Receipts**: The V2509 contract oscillated within a range, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased week - on - week [9]. - **Position and Spread**: As the delivery month approaches, the position of the main 09 contract decreased this week, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated slightly [12]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price - Import and Export**: The CFR China quotation was 700 US dollars (+0), and the Southeast Asian quotation was 680 US dollars (+0) [18]. - **Spot Price - Overseas**: The Indian quotation was 720 US dollars (+0) [23]. - **Spot Price - Domestic Calcium Carbide and Ethylene Methods**: The spot prices of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC in East China decreased slightly this week [26]. - **Basis**: The basis fluctuated slightly, and the futures market remained in a premium state [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Blue Coke and Calcium Carbide**: The prices of blue coke and calcium carbide increased this week. The blue coke operating rate was 54.22%, and the calcium carbide operating rate was 62.55% [34][39]. - **EDC and VCM**: The CIF intermediate price of VCM was 520 US dollars/ton, and the international price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton [43]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - **Supply - Capacity and Output**: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in July was 2.0046 million tons, a month - on - month increase [47]. - **Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The PVC capacity utilization rate increased slightly this week [51]. - **Demand - Downstream Operating Rate**: The pipe operating rate was 32.09%, and the profile operating rate was 36.91% [54]. - **Demand - PVC Floor Export**: The export of PVC floor products decreased month - on - month in June [58]. - **Import and Export**: In June, imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [61]. - **Inventory**: The PVC social inventory continued to accumulate [66]. - **Cost**: The cost of calcium carbide method increased month - on - month this week, while the cost of ethylene method decreased month - on - month [70]. - **Profit**: The losses of calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened this week [76]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 29.19%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 14.44% [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs increased, with the main contract 2511 rising 2.38% weekly. The supply side sees an increase in the number of pigs for sale and a decrease in the weight of pigs for sale, while the demand side is currently weak but is expected to improve significantly during the student enrollment and double - festival stocking periods. The current spot price is falling due to increased supply and weak demand, but the near - month contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline in the short term due to basis repair. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs increased, and the main contract 2511 rose 2.38% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers are selling more pigs with lower weights, and the government has proposed measures to control production capacity. On the demand side, the supply of pigs is sufficient, and the demand in some areas has recovered slightly, but high temperatures still suppress the willingness to buy pork. It is expected that demand will improve significantly during the student enrollment and double - festival stocking periods. Overall, the increase in the number of pigs for sale and weak current demand lead to a decline in the spot price, but the near - month contracts are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price increased, and the main contract 2511 rose 2.38% weekly [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position decreased, and there were 380 futures warehouse receipts [12]. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price was 14.34 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from last week and down 3.04% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 31.24 yuan/kg, down 1.48 yuan/kg from last week and 8.2% from last month [27]. - **Pork and Sows Prices**: The national pork market price was 25.21 yuan/kg on July 31, down 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: The pig - to - grain ratio was 6.05 as of July 30, down 0.11 from the previous week and below the break - even point [36]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, up 10,000 month - on - month and 0.12% year - on - year, reaching 103.7% of the normal inventory. In July, the inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms increased slightly, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly [41]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, up 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In July, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased [44]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In July, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid pigs was 123.32 kg, down 0.21 kg from last week [48]. Industry Profit and Related Factors - **Livestock Farming Profit**: As of August 8, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 134.14 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 17.36 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 45.13 yuan/head, up 1.27 yuan/head month - on - month. The profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.31 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 0.15 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.15 yuan/head [53]. - **Pork Import**: From January to June 2025, China imported 540,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, which was at a historically low level [58]. - **Substitute Product Price**: As of the week of August 8, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.90 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from last week; the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.37 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from last week [61]. - **Feed Price and Production**: As of August 8, the spot price of soybean meal was 3015.43 yuan/ton, up 37.72 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2395.59 yuan/ton, down 7.16 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 930.53, down 0.6% from last week; the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. In June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons, up 175,600 tons month - on - month [67][70][75]. - **CPI**: As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year [79]. Downstream - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 32nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 26.94%, up 0.11 percentage points from last week and 3.27 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.66%, the same as last week; the frozen - product storage rate was 17.50%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.06 million, down 6.53% from the previous month. In June 2025, the national catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. Pig - Related Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. but does not provide specific analysis [88][90]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For corn, the market is bearish. International factors such as high US corn good - rate and favorable weather for growth are pressuring prices. Domestically, multiple factors like import reserve auctions, falling international grain prices, and lower new - season corn costs lead to a pessimistic outlook. Spot prices are weak, and futures prices are trending down [8]. - For corn starch, the market is also bearish. With increasing industry operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is an obvious oversupply situation. Inventory is rising, and futures prices are oscillating weakly at a low level [12]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Corn**: - Strategy: Trade bearishly [7]. - Market review: The main 2509 contract closed at 2255 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Outlook: US corn good - rate is high, and domestic factors lead to a pessimistic outlook. Spot prices are weak, and futures prices are trending down [8]. - **Corn Starch**: - Strategy: Participate bearishly [11]. - Market review: The main 2509 contract closed at 2642 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - Outlook: Operating rates are rising, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Futures prices are oscillating weakly at a low level [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: - Corn: The September contract closed down with oscillations. Total positions were 659,407 lots, down 87,309 lots from the previous week [18]. - Corn Starch: The September contract closed down with narrow - range oscillations. Total positions were 145,811 lots, down 12,545 lots from the previous week [18]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: - Corn: The top 20 net position was - 28,678, compared to - 20,885 last week, an increase in net short positions [24]. - Corn Starch: The top 20 net position was - 5,893, compared to - 18,086 last week, a decrease in net short positions [24]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: - Corn: Registered warehouse receipts were 144,037 [30]. - Corn Starch: Registered warehouse receipts were 7,450 [30]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: - Corn: As of August 7, 2025, the average spot price was 2395.49 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active September contract and the spot average was + 140 yuan/ton [35]. - Corn Starch: The spot price in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2950 yuan/ton, remaining stable this week. The basis between the September contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 208 yuan/ton [39]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: - Corn: The 9 - 1 spread was 84 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [45]. - Corn Starch: The 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [45]. - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn**: - The September contract spread was 387 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [55]. - **Substitute Spread**: - As of July 31, 2025, the wheat - corn spread was 36.48 yuan/ton. In the 32nd week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch continued to narrow to 117 yuan/ton, a contraction of 23 yuan/ton from last week [60]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Corn - Supply**: - Port Inventory: As of August 1, 2025, Guangdong Port's domestic corn inventory was 89.2 tons, up 1.00 tons from last week; foreign trade inventory was 0.4 tons, down 0.30 tons. Northern four - port inventory was 190.5 tons, down 20.1 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 24 tons, down 15.30 tons week - on - week [49]. - Import Volume: In June 2025, ordinary corn imports were 160,000 tons, a decrease of 760,000 tons (82.61%) from the same period last year and 30,000 tons from the previous month [68]. - Feed Company Inventory: As of August 7, the average inventory of national feed companies was 30.44 days, down 0.14 days from last week, a 0.46% week - on - week decrease and a 3.40% year - on - year increase [72]. - **Corn - Demand**: - Livestock Inventory: As of the end of Q2 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, a 2.2% year - on - year increase, and the breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous period, 103.7% of the normal level [76]. - Breeding Profit: As of August 1, 2025, self - breeding and self - raising pig profit was 43.85 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 116.78 yuan/head [80]. - Processing Profit: As of August 7, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 64 yuan/ton. As of August 8, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 615 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 594 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 225 yuan/ton [85]. - **Corn Starch - Supply**: - Enterprise Inventory: As of August 6, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.643 million tons, a 4.06% decrease [89]. - Operating Rate and Inventory: From July 31 to August 6, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 560,500 tons, up 15,400 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 278,500 tons, up 10,700 tons; the operating rate was 53.83%, up 2.07%. As of August 6, the total corn starch inventory was 1.32 million tons, up 27,000 tons from last week, a 2.09% week - on - week increase, a 0.69% month - on - month increase, and a 14.48% year - on - year increase [93]. 3.4 Option Market As of August 8, the implied volatility of the corn main 2509 contract was 9.68%, down 0.08% from the previous week. The implied volatility oscillated narrowly and was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% on a weekly basis. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure, and the overall shipment speed has slowed down. Due to high temperatures, the large - scale listing of Gala apples may be postponed, which, combined with the low old - crop inventory, boosts the short - term apple price. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in the Apple 2510 contract, with the upper pressure on the 2510 contract at 8,200 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, a 2.35% increase. As of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low, and the overall shipment speed has slowed. The large - scale listing of Gala apples may be postponed due to high temperatures. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the "Detailed Rules for the Business of Fresh Apple Futures", which may affect aspects such as delivery units, alternative delivery products, and packaging. Overall, the short - term apple price is boosted [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor the destocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 4.11% this week [10]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the net short position of the top 20 in apple futures was 2,912 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. 3.3 Spot Market - As of August 8, 2025, the mainstream price of bagged Red Fuji apples of grade 80 and above from farmers in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of grade 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan/jin [19]. 3.4 Industry Chain 3.4.1 Supply Side - As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas was 533,900 tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons from the previous week. The shipment speed has slowed slightly. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu have decreased, with Gansu's shipment almost finished [26]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - As of August 7, the average daily number of trucks arriving at the main apple wholesale markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin [30]. - As of August 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.67 yuan/kg, a 0.62% decrease from the previous period; the wholesale price of apples was 9.75 yuan/kg, a 0.31% increase from the previous period [33]. - As of July 25, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.1 yuan/kg, a 0.42% decrease from the previous period [37]. - In June 2023, China's total export of fresh apples was 40,000 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous month and a 38.6% decrease from the same period last year [40]. 3.5 Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data is provided [41]. 3.6 Futures - Stock Correlation - The price - earnings ratio chart of Honghui Fruit is presented, but no specific data is provided [43].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage where supply increases slightly and demand gradually warms up, with large price fluctuations and an improving industry outlook [5]. - The central bank and six other departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization," aiming to develop a mature financial system for high - end, intelligent, and green manufacturing by 2027 [5]. - It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control risks [5]. 3. Summary by Directory **Weekly Highlights Summary** - Market Review: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a change of +11.67% and an amplitude of 14.36%. As of the end of the week, the main contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton [5]. - Outlook: Macroeconomically, policies support the high - end development of the manufacturing industry. In terms of fundamentals, the raw material price fluctuates, the supply may increase, and the demand is gradually warming up. The overall industry expectation is improving [5]. - Strategy: Conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control trading rhythm to manage risks [5]. **Futures and Spot Market** - Futures Price: As of August 8, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 76,960 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8,040 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,660 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 920 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot Price: As of August 8, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 5,060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7,490 yuan/ton [15]. **Upstream Market** - Lithium Spodumene: As of August 8, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 780 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate decreased by 0.21% week - on - week [19]. - Lithium Mica: As of August 8, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,358 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 6,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 455 yuan/ton [24]. **Industry Situation** - Supply: As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons from May, a decline of 16.31% and a year - on - year decline of 9.63%. The monthly output was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from May, an increase of 4.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [29]. **Downstream Situation** - Demand: The quotes of hexafluorophosphate lithium, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate remained flat. The output of electrolyte increased, while the output of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate decreased [32][35][39][44][47]. - Application: As of June 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 9.12%. The monthly sales volume was 1,329,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%. The cumulative export volume was 1.06 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 75.21% [49][55]. **Options Market** - It is recommended to construct a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility. The synthetic underlying asset's premium/discount is - 0.27, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity [56][58].