终端对价格接受容忍程度低，多晶硅需求增长将受限。综合供应端有潜在增量、需求端增长存在不确定性 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 ，以及政策和宏观经济等因素，预计下周多晶硅行情将面临一定调整。价格虽有成本和政策支撑，但上方 免责声明 多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 54705 | 3900 8-9月多晶硅价差 | -75 | -50 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 164490 | 23852 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 45420 | 3965 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 46500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -4305 | -1400 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025-07-30 [1] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi [2] - Qualification Numbers: Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the support from cost and supply side for butadiene rubber has weakened, leading to a rapid rise and fall in both the futures and mainstream supply prices. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is passive. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. [2] - Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber units of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the Shandong Yihua butadiene unit is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, production enterprise inventories may still increase. [2] - In terms of demand, the production resumption of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, near the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises fell short of expectations, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and the overall order performance was insufficient. Some enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline. The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,650 - 12,200. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the position volume of the main contract was 39,690, a decrease of 1,446. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,290 tons, unchanged. [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 butadiene rubber from different manufacturers all decreased. For example, the price from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 175 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Brent crude oil was 72.51 dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.47 dollars; WTI crude oil was 69.21 dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.5 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 589.25 dollars/ton, an increase of 10.75 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,090 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 70%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 48.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan; the social inventory was 32,300 tons, unchanged; the manufacturer's inventory was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the trader's inventory was 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons. [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.02%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.95 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.55 days, an increase of 0.37 days. As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. [2] 5. Industry News - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises basically resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86%. [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a methanol industry daily report dated July 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Report Core Views - This week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, mainly in the South China region. Typhoon weather affected the unloading speed and inventory accumulation. The mainstream social warehouses in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang area and other consumption areas remained weak and stable, leading to continued inventory growth. Short - term on - the - way foreign vessels are still sufficient, and apparent demand may remain weak. It is expected that port methanol inventories may continue to accumulate, but the impact of weather factors on the unloading speed needs to be monitored [2] - Last week, the load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly, while other enterprise devices operated stably. The overall domestic olefin industry's starting rate decreased slightly. This week, the Zhongmei Mengda device is expected to resume, which will increase the olefin industry's starting rate [2] - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [2] Group 3: Data Summary by Category Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2419 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest was 579345 lots, an increase of 3317 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 88181 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8834, a decrease of 1000 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2057.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.5 yuan/ton; the East - Northwest price spread was 342.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main methanol contract in Zhengzhou was - 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; CFR China Main Port was 275 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 333 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam was 239 euros/ton, an increase of 4 euros/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread was - 58 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.07 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.04 dollars/million British thermal units [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons; in South China ports, it was 17.88 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons; the methanol import profit was - 1.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.54 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 339800 tons, a decrease of 12500 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 83.98%, an increase of 1.29% [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 37.74%, a decrease of 5.91%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.19%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate was 92.69%, an increase of 2.1%; the MTBE operating rate was 69.01%, an increase of 1.38%; the olefin operating rate was 84.95%, a decrease of 0.15%; the methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 912 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 26.01%, a decrease of 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.45%, a decrease of 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.93%, a decrease of 5.4%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.93%, a decrease of 5.39% [2] Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 32.45 tons, a decrease of 1.53 tons from the previous period, a 4.51% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.07 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period, a 5.76% decrease [2] - As of July 30, the total Chinese methanol port inventory was 80.84 tons, an increase of 8.26 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 2.50 tons, and in South China by 5.76 tons [2] - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.08%, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous period [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Apple 2510 contract continues its adjustment trend, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [3] - The overall acquisition price of early - maturing apple varieties has declined, weakening price support, and affected by capital flow [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 7915 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 93828 lots, a decrease of 9760 lots compared to the previous period; the number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3629 lots, a decrease of 246 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remain unchanged compared to the previous period [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg [2] Industry Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons compared to the previous week; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.11, a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons; the monthly export value of apples is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.04 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.81 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily vehicle arrivals at Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets are 6.8, 8.8, and 14.6 vehicles respectively, with changes of 1, 0, and - 2 vehicles compared to the previous period [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 22.26%, a decrease of 0.47% [2] Industry News - On July 30, 2025, the trading of inventory fruits in the western production areas is basically over, and the remaining goods are mostly picked up by merchants and sent to the market. The supply of early - maturing apples has slightly increased, but the coloring is not satisfactory, and the price shows a slow decline. The sales of inventory apples in Shandong are average, with fruit farmers eager to sell. The Apple 2510 contract closed down 0.31% on Wednesday. According to preliminary estimates, the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory is 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu are 11.12%, 3.65%, and 2.77% respectively, with decreases of 1.03%, 0.98%, and 0.92% compared to the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low, and the sales pressure is small. The trading is priced according to quality [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - Domestic urea demand is weak, export docking falls short of expectations, new orders at factories slow down, and shipping directions decrease. Despite appropriate restocking by compound fertilizer companies, it provides limited support, and there is still a trend of inventory accumulation in the short - term for urea enterprises. The short - term trading range for the UR2509 contract is recommended to be between 1730 - 1800 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1742 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 28 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 147157 lots, down 5823 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 22228 lots, up 3865 lots; and the exchange warehouse receipts are 2900 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - In the spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 28 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory is 54.3 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; enterprise inventory is 85.88 million tons, down 3.67 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.59%, down 0.87%; the daily urea output is 193500 tons, down 2000 tons. The urea export volume is 7 million tons, up 7 million tons; the monthly urea output is 6031340 tons, down 261890 tons [2] 下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 33.58%, up 1.03%; the melamine operating rate is 65.2%, up 0.96%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 104 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 499 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The monthly compound fertilizer output is 416.82 million tons, down 64.08 million tons; the weekly melamine output is 32400 tons, up 500 tons [2] Industry News - As of July 30, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 91.73 million tons, up 5.85 million tons from last week, a 6.81% increase. As of July 24, the port sample inventory is 54.3 million tons, up 0.2 million tons, a 0.37% increase. As of July 24, the production of Chinese urea enterprises is 135.47 million tons, down 1.40 million tons, a 1.02% decrease, and the capacity utilization rate is 83.59%, down 0.87% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Shanghai lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short - term as overall supply is likely to decline slightly, demand remains unchanged, and there is anti - involution speculation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,020 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest was 99,416 lots, up 3,040 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 324 lots, up 2,290 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 60,932 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory was 63,254 tons, up 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 270,350 tons, up 6,700 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,880 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 140 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 31.8 dollars/ton, down 4.49 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons. The global lead mine output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons. The lead ore import volume was 11.97 million tons, up 2.48 million tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,158.93 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of lead - acid batteries was 41.45 million units, down 425 thousand units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,759.9 points, down 11.76 points. The monthly automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle production was 73,000 vehicles, up 164,700 vehicles [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said that if there is no cease - fire agreement with Ukraine within 10 days, tariffs will be imposed on Russia. The US Secretary of Commerce said that Trump will announce pharmaceutical industry policies in the next two weeks. The EU plans to buy AI chips worth 40 billion euros in the US trade agreement. The Mexican President aims to reach a tariff agreement with the US this week. India is expected to reach a trade agreement with the US in September or October and is preparing to deal with a 20% - 25% tariff from the US [3]. 3.7 Fed News - Fed Governor Kugler will miss this week's interest - rate meeting due to personal reasons, and the number of voting members has temporarily dropped to 11. The "Fed whisperer" said that the Fed will need to continue to cut interest rates, but they are not ready to do so this week [3]. 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The supply of primary lead has declined due to the decrease in the operating rate affected by the falling lead price. The supply of recycled lead is tight due to the shortage of waste battery raw materials, and the resumption of production is slow. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak season, the actual demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction. The domestic inventory is rising slightly, and the overall demand is slowing down. The lead price is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of industrial silicon has a potential increasing trend due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions, while the total demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a high - short strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9285 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the main contract position is 242,677 lots, down 34,057 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 74,088 lots, up 5,853 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,113 lots; the industrial silicon price spread from August to September is - 45 yuan, up 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 10,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 715 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification announcement stating that some self - media reports about anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, especially in the polysilicon sector, are seriously inconsistent with the actual situation. The clarification may be related to the rumored acquisition and storage event in the polysilicon industry. Trump announced that a 50% tariff will be imposed on imported copper starting from August 1 [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, in the northwest Ili region, large - scale production enterprises maintain the existing production rhythm; in the southwest region, some areas are resuming production, and overall output has a potential increasing trend. On the demand side, the demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon is slowing down [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The Shanghai copper market has an overall fundamental situation where supply growth may slow slightly, demand is currently weak but the outlook is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreased implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line below the 0 - axis with the red bar converging. The recommended operation is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,930 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,772 dollars/ton, down 26 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 171,689 lots, down 2,055 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are 8,781 lots, down 5,333 lots. The LME copper inventory is 127,625 tons, up 225 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 73,423 tons, down 11,133 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 19,400 tons, up 2,125 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 19,973 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,285 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market 1 copper spot price is 79,285 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 51.5 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 355 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 51.71 dollars/ton, up 2.63 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.63 dollars/kiloton, up 0.82 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,610 yuan/metal ton, up 290 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 70,310 yuan/metal ton, up 290 yuan. The rough copper southern processing fee is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined copper output is 130.20 million tons, up 4.80 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 55,290 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.48%, up 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.94%, down 0.14%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 10.68%, down 0.0073. The at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.38, down 0.0894 [2] Industry News - The IMF raised China's 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and the 2026 growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%. It also raised the 2025 global economic growth forecast to 3%, and slightly raised the US economic growth forecast to 1.9%, and expected the eurozone economic growth to accelerate to 1% - A Fed governor will miss a policy meeting, and the committee is likely to keep interest rates unchanged - The central bank's second - quarter survey shows that over half of entrepreneurs and bankers think the current macro - economy is stable, while residents have a cold expectation of employment in the second quarter and most expect prices and housing prices to remain stable in the next quarter - China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures. The two sides' economic and trade teams will maintain close communication - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October, and analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work for the second half of the year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage where supply expectations are somewhat restored but demand is temporarily weak. The raw - material side sees an increase in miners' willingness to support prices and rising ore prices due to disturbances in the lithium carbonate ore sector and domestic policy influence. The supply of lithium carbonate will gradually be controlled and converged. Demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement, and the inventory in the industry is still at a high level. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. The technical analysis shows that the 60 - minute MACD has green bars expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 70,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan. The net position of the top 20 is - 175,122 hands, an increase of 11,099 hands. The main - contract position is 272,753 hands, a decrease of 27,867 hands. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 12,276 hands/ton, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 2,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 810 US dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of amblygonite is 6,625 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,367 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. The monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons. The monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons. The monthly capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, an increase of 5%. The monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, an increase of 5,700 MWh. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 50,300 yuan/ton. The prices of manganese - acid lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, 811 - type ternary material, 622 - type power ternary material, and 523 - type single - crystal ternary material remain unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly capacity utilization rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, a decrease of 4%. The monthly capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 52%, an increase of 3%. The monthly output of new - energy vehicles is 1,268,000 units, a decrease of 2,000 units. The monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 units, an increase of 22,000 units. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new - energy vehicles is 44.32%, an increase of 0.33%. The cumulative sales volume of new - energy vehicles is 6,937,000 units, an increase of 1,993,000 units. The monthly export volume of new - energy vehicles is 205,000 units, a decrease of 70,000 units. The cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles is 1,060,000 units, an increase of 455,000 units [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 280,998 contracts, an increase of 36,611 contracts. The total put position is 129,317 contracts, a decrease of 6,461 contracts. The put - to - call ratio of the total position is 46.02%, a decrease of 9.538%. The implied volatility at the at - the - money level is 0.44%, a decrease of 0.0972% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October. The central bank's second - quarter survey shows that entrepreneurs and bankers have a neutral - to - cautious attitude towards the macro - economy, and residents' employment expectations are cold. Sino - US trade teams will continue to communicate on tariff issues. As of the end of 2024, the asset scale of 24 auto - finance companies in China was 855.134 billion yuan, with the new - energy vehicle loan balance increasing by 23.44% year - on - year and the second - hand car loan balance increasing by 26.06% year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position in a volatile manner, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and weak demand, with a good long - term consumption expectation. It is also advised to trade with a light - position in a volatile way, paying attention to the rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - selling trading at high prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,625 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the main - second - contract spread is 65 yuan, up 10 yuan. The main - contract trading volume decreased by 11,344 lots. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,606 dollars/ton, down 25 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 456,100 tons, up 1,825 tons [2]. - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,326 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the main - second - contract spread is 21 yuan, down 7 yuan. The main - contract trading volume decreased by 9,550 lots [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,070 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the main - second - contract spread is 110 yuan, up 35 yuan. The main - contract trading volume decreased by 14 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,670 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 20,580 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 30 yuan, down 680 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 45 yuan, up 30 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 96 yuan, down 9 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 10 yuan, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 2.67 dollars, down 2.09 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in the current month is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina in the current month is 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 15,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments in the current month is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export volume is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina in the current month is 17 million tons, down 4 million tons; the import volume is 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the current month is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons; the production of electrolytic aluminum in the current month is 192,314.50 tons, down 30,781 tons; the export volume is 19,570.72 tons, down 12,523.35 tons [2]. - The production of aluminum products in the current month is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in the current month is 49 million tons, down 6 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the current month is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy in the current month is 2.58 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The completed production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the current month is 126 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the national real - estate prosperity index in the current month is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy in the current month is 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the production of automobiles in the current month is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 10.34%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.30%, down 0.34% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.03%, down 0.0073; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.28, down 0.0236 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%. It also raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3%, and slightly raised the US economic growth forecast to 1.9% [2]. - A Fed governor will miss the policy meeting, and the committee is likely to keep interest rates unchanged [2]. - The central bank's second - quarter survey shows that over half of entrepreneurs and bankers think the current macro - economy is stable, and residents' employment expectations are cold [2]. - China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures [2]. - The Politburo decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan and deploy the second - half economic work [2].