瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 合成橡胶期货价格走势 合成橡胶期货主力合约价格走势 来源：博易大师 瑞达期货研究院 • 本周合成橡胶期货主力价格震荡收跌，周度-4.5%。 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周山东市场顺丁橡胶价格表现震荡回落走势，现货价格区间在12300-13050元/吨。 原料丁二烯下游需求下降预期及近期国内供应增量预期影响，顺丁橡胶高生产成本压力略有缓解。 截止2026年2月5日，中石化化销BR9000出厂价格在13000元/吨，中石油各销售公司BR9000出 厂价格在13000-13100元/吨。 行情展望：近期国内顺丁装置停车较少，供应延续高位，春节前采购基本进入尾声，部分贸易商 为回笼资金存在部分让利促销行为，下游采购基本结束，新成交减少以提货为主，本周生产企业 库存多数下降，贸易企业库存总体小幅下降，当前下游节前采购基本完成，多数生产企业及贸 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.02.06」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2605合约短线预计在1750-1800区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂涨至1750-1800元/吨， 均价环比上涨15元/吨。本周期尿素工厂继续春节前的订单预收，期货价格的上涨，市场情绪的带 动，让尿素工厂报价并未出现明显松动，收单依然顺利。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，4-5家 停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增幅扩大。近期农业需求持 续推进，节前终端及贸易企业适当增加储备需求，尿素工厂订单量明显增加。工业领域维持刚需 采购，复合肥本周产能利用率环比提升，部分地区虽环保压力仍存，但为保障供应，规模企业装 置开工率稳中有升，春节临近，预计复合肥产能利用率或将下降。本周国内尿素企业库存小幅下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, a series of macro - events led by the Wash nomination triggered a significant shock in the market, causing the global precious metals market to experience an accelerated correction. In the short - term, market volatility may remain high, but geopolitical uncertainties provide bottom support for gold prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as market sentiment stabilizes, the precious metals market may return to a pricing framework dominated by macro and fundamentals. With the cooling of inflation and employment data, there may be a mid - term easing expectation, and the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still holds, but it is recommended to wait and see due to short - term high volatility [6]. - The actual impact of Wash's election as the Fed Chairman on the interest - rate policy path may be relatively limited. If the cooling trend of inflation and employment data continues, the new Fed Chairman may adjust the interest - rate path and implement moderate interest - rate cuts. The support of medium - term easing expectations makes the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still valid, but short - term market fluctuations are intense, so it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the support levels of London gold at $4400 - 4500 per ounce and London silver at $55 - 60 per ounce [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Macro - events led to market shocks and a correction in the precious metals market. The cooling of the US employment market increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Profit - taking and market liquidity tightening increased the selling pressure on precious metals. The cancellation of the Iran - US negotiation provided bottom support for gold prices. The increase in margin requirements for gold and silver futures may intensify short - term market fluctuations [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, the precious metals market may return to a macro - and fundamental - driven pricing framework. With the support of medium - term easing expectations, the logic of bottom - fishing still holds, but short - term high volatility suggests a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the support levels of London gold and silver [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the net position of gold ETFs decreased slightly, while that of silver ETFs increased [10]. - **COMEX Net Long Positions**: As of January 27, 2025, the net long positions of both COMEX gold and silver decreased [15][20]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened week - on - week [21][25]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: This week, the domestic - foreign price difference of gold and silver continued to converge [26][28]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the inventory of silver continued to decline significantly [29][31]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - silver ratio continued to rebound [32][35]. 3. Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of December 2025, the import of silver and silver ore increased significantly. The output of semiconductor integrated circuits increased due to the growth of silver demand in the semiconductor industry [37][41][43]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold. The total global gold demand reached a record high [45][47]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand decreased slightly, narrowing the market shortage [48][50]. 4. Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: This week, the US dollar index strengthened, and the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose by nearly 2%. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury bond yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price increased significantly. Central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold, providing long - term structural support for gold prices [51][56][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn futures market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The international market is affected by the loose supply - demand pattern of US corn, with potential import pressure. In the domestic market, the sales of Northeast corn are over 60%, and the market trading is gradually weakening. The price of Northeast corn is slightly weak, while that in North China and Huanghuai regions is mainly fluctuating slightly. The corn starch futures market is also oscillating. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream提货 is active, and the industry inventory is declining [8][10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Corn**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,274 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week. The international corn price is restricted by the loose supply - demand situation in the US. In the domestic market, Northeast farmers have sold over 60% of their corn, and market trading is weakening. The price of Northeast corn is slightly weak, and that in North China and Huanghuai regions is fluctuating slightly. The futures price has dropped from its short - term high [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2,540 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week. As the Spring Festival is approaching, logistics is about to stop, downstream is actively picking up goods, and the inventory is decreasing. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 995,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 3.21%, a month - on - month decline of 3.21%, and a year - on - year decline of 24.85%. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The March contract of corn futures oscillated up and down this week, with a total position of 504,926 hands, a decrease of 369,773 hands from last week. The March contract of corn starch futures oscillated slightly up, with a total position of 126,882 hands, a decrease of 30,699 hands from last week [16]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 120,101, compared with - 187,331 last week, and the net short position decreased. The top 20 net position of starch futures this week was - 28,786, compared with - 27,519 last week, and the net short position increased [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 60,440, and those of corn starch were 11,611 [29]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2,368.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active March contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 94 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton. The basis between the March contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 160 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 5 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 54 yuan/ton, also at a relatively high level in the same period [43]. - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn**: The spread between the March contracts of starch and corn was 266 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 434 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [52]. - **Substitute Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2,531.67 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2,368.82 yuan/ton, with the wheat - corn spread at 162.85 yuan/ton. In the 6th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 575 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [57]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of January 30, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 582,000 tons, an increase of 241,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 122,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.732 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports in the week was 706,000 tons, the same as last week [47]. - **Domestic Corn Sales Progress**: As of February 5, the overall sales progress of domestic corn was 63%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The sales progress in Northeast China was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 8% [59]. - **Monthly Import Arrivals**: In December 2025, China's total corn imports were 800,100 tons, an increase of 456,900 tons compared with 343,200 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 133.12%, and a month - on - month increase of 245,200 tons compared with 554,900 tons in the previous month [63]. - **Feed Enterprise Corn Inventory Days**: As of February 5, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, an increase of 0.66 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.89% [67]. - **Demand Side** - **Pig and Sows Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million from the end of last year, a growth of 0.5%. Among them, the sows inventory was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, a decline of 2.9% [71]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of January 30, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 25.1 yuan/head, and that of purchasing piglets was 124.13 yuan/head [75]. - **Starch and Alcohol Enterprise Profit**: As of February 5, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 71 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 659 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 754 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 194 yuan/ton [80]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of February 4, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 5.127 million tons, an increase of 16.39% [84]. - **Starch Enterprise Startup Rate and Inventory**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the total national corn processing volume was 614,100 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 316,200 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons from last week; the weekly startup rate was 57.79%, a decrease of 2.2% from last week. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 995,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 3.21%, a month - on - month decline of 3.21%, and a year - on - year decline of 24.85% [88]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of February 6, the main 2603 contract of corn oscillated up and down, and the corresponding implied volatility of options was 10.57%, a slight decrease of 0.22% from 10.79% last week. The implied volatility changed little this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 98 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - The previous low level of replenishment means that the current pressure of newly - opened production is not high, and the laying - hen inventory is still in a declining trend. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level. The previous high enthusiasm for market stocking led to a significant increase in egg prices and improved breeding profits, which increased the enthusiasm for chick replenishment and slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for old - hen culling, weakening the expectation of inventory decline [6]. - Affected by the recent decline in spot prices and high inventory pressure, the futures price continued to weaken this week, adding market volatility. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - The 2603 contract of eggs closed lower with a price of 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 98 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The laying - hen inventory is expected to decline, but high current inventory, improved breeding profits, increased chick - replenishment enthusiasm and slowed - down old - hen culling weaken this decline expectation. It is recommended to participate in the short - term due to price volatility [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price Trend and Top 20 Positions - The 3 - month contract of egg futures closed lower with a trading volume of 149,120 lots, a decrease of 51,367 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 changed from a net long of +2,490 to a net short of - 11,114 [13]. 3.2.2 Weekly Egg Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs was 0 [17]. 3.2.3 Egg Spot Price and Basis Trend - The egg spot price was reported at 3450 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 661 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 3 - month contract futures price and the spot average price was +546 yuan per ton [23]. 3.2.4 Egg Futures Inter - monthly Spread Change - The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 520 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a low level in the same period [27]. 3.2.5 Related Commodity Spot Price Trends - As of February 5, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.48 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.5 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm - As of December 31, 2025, the laying - hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The new - chick index nationwide was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. 3.3.2 Culled Laying - Hen Index and Culling Age - As of December 31, 2025, the culled laying - hen index nationwide was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The culling age of hens nationwide was reported at 500 days [44]. 3.3.3 Feed Raw Material Price Trends - As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2368.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3100 yuan per ton [48]. 3.3.4 Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of January 30, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at 0.3 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [54]. 3.3.5 Laying - Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices - As of January 30, 2026, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 3.2 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was reported at 9.44 yuan per kilogram [58]. 3.3.6 Monthly Egg Export Volume - In December 2025, China's total egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2767.32 tons compared to 12,131.40 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 22.81%. It was a month - on - month increase of 1853.21 tons compared to 13,045.52 tons in the previous month [63]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - Information about the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2180 - 2300 in the short term [7] - This week, the port methanol market mainly declined, and the inland methanol price continued to fall. The market sentiment was weak due to pre - holiday inventory clearance and a weak macro - environment. As the de - stocking nears the end, market trading has become light, and downstream buyers are on the sidelines [8] - Recently, the production capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production, leading to an overall increase in production. Before the long holiday, upstream factories continue to clear inventory/pre - sell, and downstream buyers stock up steadily before the festival. Inland enterprise inventories continue to decline. Port inventories in the Yangtze River Delta decreased this week, while those in South China increased. In the short term, the arrival of foreign vessels is expected to increase, and port inventories may accumulate [8] - This week, the operating rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins increased. After the restart of the Ningbo Fude plant, its load increased, and the Shandong Hengtong and Qinghai Salt Lake plants restarted during the week. In the short term, as the loads of previously restarted olefin plants gradually increase, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2180 - 2300 range in the short term [7] - Market review: This week, the port methanol market declined. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2180 - 2300 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2200 - 2280 yuan/ton. Inland prices continued to fall, with the price in Erdos in the north line fluctuating between 1785 - 1798 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying between 2145 - 2160 yuan/ton. Enterprises focused on inventory clearance before the holiday, and the market sentiment was weak [8] - Market outlook: Domestic methanol production is increasing. Inland inventories are decreasing, while port inventories may accumulate. The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 3.28% [12] - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 6, the MA 5 - 9 spread was - 29 [16] - Position analysis: As of February 6, there were 7082 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 71 from last week [24] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic prices: As of February 5, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1797.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 407.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77.5 yuan/ton from last week [30] - Foreign prices: As of February 5, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 262 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 61 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton from last week [36] - Basis: As of February 5, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [40] 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of February 4, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of February 5, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.52 US dollars per million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.35 US dollars per million British thermal units from last week [44] 3.5 Industry Situation - Production and operating rate: As of February 4, China's methanol production was 2,061,085 tons, an increase of 23,350 tons from last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 92.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15% [47] - Inventory: As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 368,300 tons, a decrease of 55,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 13.16%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 287,100 tons, an increase of 21,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.05%. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 1.411 million tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 64,800 tons, and that in South China increased by 3,700 tons [51] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of February 5, the methanol import profit was - 17.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [56] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Operating rate: As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 83.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.86%. After the restart of the Ningbo Fude plant, its load increased, and the Shandong Hengtong and Qinghai Salt Lake plants restarted during the week, leading to an increase in the operating rate [59] - Profit: As of February 6, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week [62]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly due to the continuous rebound of the US dollar index, the shift in macro - expectations driven by the nomination event of Fed's Waller, and the concentrated release of long - position profit - taking in the precious metals market. The platinum main 2606 contract fell 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram, and the palladium main 2606 contract fell 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data such as ISM services PMI and ADP employment data were slightly below market expectations, and the domestic lay - off level remained at a historical high. The labor market's cooling trend continued, strengthening the mid - term interest rate cut expectation. Although the Waller nomination event caused a shock in the precious metals market and was interpreted as hawkish, there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut this year, which may potentially support the precious metals market in the medium term [7]. - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the platinum loading intensity. Although global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [7]. - In the short term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue, and the platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range shock pattern affected by the price fluctuations of gold and silver. The support level range for London platinum is 1,800 - 1,900 US dollars/ounce, and for London palladium is 1,500 - 1,600 US dollars/ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly this week, with the platinum main 2606 contract down 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram and the palladium main 2606 contract down 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data supported mid - term interest rate cut expectations, and although the Waller event was hawkish - interpreted, there is still an interest rate cut expectation this year, potentially supporting the precious metals market [7]. - EU policies and the development of new - energy commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand for platinum [7]. - Short - term high - volatility in the precious metals market may continue, and platinum and palladium will likely show a wide - range shock pattern [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The precious metals market had a deep correction this week. Platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly. As of February 6, 2026, the palladium main 2606 contract was at 410.50 yuan/gram, down 11.54% for the week, and the platinum main 2606 contract was at 506 yuan/gram, down 19.75% for the week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 27, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 22,026 contracts, a 1.12% increase, and that of palladium was - 2,840 contracts, a 2.82% decrease [13][16]. - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened this week. As of February 5, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was - 56 US dollars/ounce, and the palladium basis was 124 US dollars/ounce [17][21]. - NYMEX platinum inventory increased slightly, and palladium inventory decreased significantly. As of February 5, 2026, platinum inventory was 662,618.73 ounces, a 1.14% increase, and palladium inventory was 190,873.50 ounces, a 14.80% decrease [22][25]. - Platinum and gold prices showed high synchronicity, with more significant platinum price fluctuations, and the gold - platinum ratio rebounded this week [26]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [31]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts decreased marginally, and the total demand for global platinum and palladium showed a mild slowdown [36][40]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts and power supply disturbances, the global supply of platinum and palladium declined [45]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign platinum and palladium converged [49]. 3.4 Macro and Options (Macro Data) - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Canola Oil**: Global and Canadian canola supply - demand is relatively loose, constraining prices. However, improved China - Canada trade relations and US biofuel policies support the market. Domestically, canola oil is in a de - stocking mode, but supply pressure may increase. The price is affected by canola purchase news, with increased market volatility, and short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Canola Meal**: High expectations of a South American soybean harvest and early Brazilian soybean harvest pressure international soybean prices. But US - China trade talks and strong US soybean crushing support the market. Domestically, supply pressure may increase, and the canola meal trend is weaker than soybean meal, remaining in a weak trend [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Canola Oil**: This week, the canola oil futures fluctuated and closed lower. The 05 contract closed at 9,144 yuan/ton, down 236 yuan/ton from the previous week. Future prices are affected by global and domestic supply - demand factors [8]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, the canola meal futures fluctuated and closed lower. The 05 contract closed at 2,239 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from the previous week. The trend is influenced by international soybean market and domestic supply expectations [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market Price Movement**: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed lower, with a total open interest of 280,449 lots, down 23,482 lots from last week. Canola meal futures also fluctuated and closed lower, with a total open interest of 932,849 lots, up 18,486 lots from last week [16]. - **Top Twenty Net Positions**: This week, the top twenty net positions of canola oil futures changed from net long to net short (- 14,217), and the net short positions of canola meal futures increased to - 259,365 [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 625 lots, and those of canola meal were 0 lots [28][29]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 9,920 yuan/ton, down from last week, with a basis of + 776 yuan/ton. The spot price of canola meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,500 yuan/ton, slightly down, with a basis of + 261 yuan/ton [35][41]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 54 yuan/ton, and that of canola meal was - 47 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [47]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 05 contract ratio of canola oil to canola meal was 4.084, and the average spot price ratio was 3.92 [50]. - **Canola - Soybean Oil and Canola - Palm Oil Spread**: The 05 contract spread of canola - soybean oil was 1,090 yuan/ton, and that of canola - palm oil was 118 yuan/ton, with little change this week [60]. - **Soybean - Canola Meal Spread**: The 05 contract spread of soybean - canola meal was 496 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 580 yuan/ton as of Thursday [66]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1. Rapeseed - **Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory and Import Arrival Forecast**: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 218,000 tons, up 98,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes in February, March, and April 2026 were 120,000 tons, 170,000 tons, and 230,000 tons respectively [70]. - **Supply - Side: Import Pressing Profit Change**: As of February 5, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 851 yuan/ton [74]. - **Supply - Side: Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 5th week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 350 tons, up from 0 tons last week, with an operating rate of 0.82% [78]. - **Supply - Side: Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In December 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 55,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.79% and a month - on - month increase of 53,600 tons [82]. 3.3.2. Canola Oil - **Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Volume Change**: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil inventory was 263,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82%. In December 2025, the canola oil import volume was 219,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.89% and a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons [86]. - **Demand - Side: Edible Vegetable Oil Consumption and Production**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525,4000 tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan [90]. - **Demand - Side: Weekly Contract Volume Change**: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil contract volume was 66,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08% [94]. 3.3.3. Canola Meal - **Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory Change**: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola meal inventory was 1,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100% [98]. - **Supply - Side: Import Volume Change**: In December 2025, the canola meal import volume was 238,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.58% and a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons [102]. - **Demand - Side: Monthly Feed Output Comparison**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3,008,600 tons [106]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis As of February 6, this week, the canola meal futures price fluctuated and closed lower, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 20.63%, down 1.67% from last week, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [109].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.2.6」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格小幅波动，主力合约EC2604收涨0.75%，远月合约收得-2-1%不等，周内受商品交 易情绪影响，振幅较大。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为1792.14，较上周下降67.17点，环比下行3.6%。自2026年4月 1日起，所有纳入清单的光伏相关产品将不再享受增值税出口退税优惠。光伏产品迎来全额退税取消，料导致抢运发 生，从而提振长协货量，但由于距离4月仍有一定时间，在交易情绪平稳后，消息所带来的涨幅回吐。12月份我国外 贸水平超预期回升，进出口均改善明显，或与部分商品增值税出口退税取消政策以及节前到来所导致的抢出口有关。 出口是我国经济的核心动能，随着我国出口竞争力持续强化，预计2026年仍将保持较高增速。现货运价方面，马士基 开舱第7-9周运价报价大柜1900/高柜2000美金，环比第 ...

业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 白糖市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑糖2605合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约0.38%。 行情展望：巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西1月份出口食糖201.75 万吨，同比减少2.09%。巴西2025/26榨季（4月-次年3月）以来截至2026年1月巴 西糖累计出口3023万吨，同比减少7.15%，1月巴西出口糖同比由增转降，供应压 力稍有所减少。国内春节备货结束，销区成交相对清淡，贸易、终端存货意愿不强， 传导销区销量下滑。基本面等待产量预期落地后，价格进行修复。主产区广西、云 南、广东产销数据表现一般，现货价格持稳为主，预计后市郑糖价格窄幅震荡，长 假临近，注意风险控制。 未来关注因素： 1、国内进口 2、需求 3 「 期现市场情况」 本周美糖市场 图1、ICE美糖主力合约价格与CFTC原糖净持仓走势 图2、CFTC美糖非商业净持仓情况 来源：w ...