研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 不锈钢产业日报 2026-02-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 13735 | 65 03-04月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -105 | -20 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -6580 | -480 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 41399 | -5769 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 53523 | 5723 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 14650 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9350 | 0 | | | 基差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 600 | 140 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.14 | ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2026-02-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 12810 | 20 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 27608 | 331 | | | 合成橡胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -15 | 40 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 11210 | 100 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 12700 | 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 12700 | 50 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | | 东(日,元/吨) 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | | | | | | 12700 | | 12750 | 50 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | -90 | 东(日,元/吨) 65 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元 ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2026-02-09 的状态。据Mysteel调研显示，截至2月5日，进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加4.14%，总库存51.59万吨。 数据来源第三方(wind、同花顺、棉花信息网、棉花协会网)，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 下游纺企陆续停机放假，暂停对原料的采购，纱线库存明显增加。考虑到当前长假临近，短期暂且观望为 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 16245 95 | 165 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -10 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 13150 -50 | 100 -5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3095 | 65 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 150270 | 4240 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 48669 | -1481 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -36562 | -423 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -8807 | 387 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 112570 | 500 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 51004 | 0 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 16000 | 100 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 16350 | -100 | | | 泰标STR20(日,美元 ...

幅波动，局部受农业提货带动，部分尿素工厂仍以小幅去库为主，本周春节临近物流减少，企业库存或有 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 上涨趋势，对尿素行情支撑或减弱。UR2605合约短线预计在1750-1800区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 尿素产业日报 2026-02-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1788 | 12 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 40 | 2 | | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 384180 | 27180 3月-4月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 160 | 100 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 47155 | 165 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 33625 | 1447 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -5523 | 1132 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 7085 | -45 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 8750 | -1718 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 315 | -20 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6337 | -379 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 373500 | 17200 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 372830 | 16170 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -700 | -13660 LM ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the equity and precious metal markets have entered an adjustment phase, with a significant decline in market risk appetite. Coupled with the central bank's increased liquidity injection before the holiday to offset the pressure of cash withdrawal, the capital price remains low. In the short - term, multiple positive factors may drive the bond market to strengthen slightly. However, there is no clear main line in the bond market before the holiday, market trading is light, and the downward space for yields is limited. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures Market Conditions - **Futures Closing Price and Volume**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.06%, 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.14% respectively. T and TL main contract trading volumes decreased by 2217 and 25288 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes increased by 7777 and 10661 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2603 - 2606, T2603 - 2606, and TF2603 - 2606 increased, while others like TS2603 - 2606, T03 - TL03, etc. decreased [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL increased, and the short positions also increased. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS increased, while that of TL decreased [2] 3.2 Bond Market Conditions - **CTD Bond Net Price**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 250018.IB, 220025.IB, etc. all increased [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds increased by 1.00bp, while those of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds decreased by 0.10bp, 0.75bp, 1.00bp, and 0.40bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rate Conditions - **Short - Term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates increased by 14.50bp, 12.42bp, and 3.57bp respectively. Shibor overnight decreased by 0.70bp, while Shibor 7 - day and 14 - day increased by 7.00bp and 8.00bp respectively [2] - **LPR Interest Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR interest rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 1130 billion, the maturity scale was 750 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net investment of 380 billion [2] 3.5 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting studied policies and measures to promote effective investment, aiming to plan and promote a number of major projects in key areas [2] - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that macro - policies should be implemented in advance, and fiscal funds should be arranged as early as possible. Policy pre - research and reserve should be done well [3] - As of the end of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, and gold reserves increased for 15 consecutive months [3] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On February 11 at 09:30, China's January CPI & PPI data will be released - On February 11 at 21:30, the US January non - farm payroll data will be released [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index is running at a low level, and the global mine tightness situation has not improved. The domestic production of copper may decline due to raw material supply constraints and holiday factors. The demand for pre - holiday stocking has increased, and domestic copper inventories have shown seasonal accumulation. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 101,840 yuan/ton, up 1,740 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 13,054.5 dollars/ton, up 60.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 169,613 lots, down 5,693 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders in Shanghai copper is - 57,229 lots, up 8,065 lots. LME copper inventory is 183,275 tons, up 2,700 tons; SHFE cathode copper inventory is 248,911 tons, up 15,907 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants are 19,300 tons, down 650 tons; SHFE cathode copper warrants are 157,128 tons, down 2,856 tons; COMEX copper inventory is 589,081 short tons, up 2,652 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,555 yuan/ton, up 1,950 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,610 yuan/ton, up 1,595 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 44 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 37.5 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 285 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - three - month spread is - 70.95 dollars/ton, up 6.63 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 tons, up 17.8 tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 52.37 dollars/kiloton, down 2.53 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 91,950 yuan/metal ton, up 1,610 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 92,650 yuan/metal ton, up 1,610 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the northern processing fee for blister copper is 1,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The production of refined copper is 132.6 tons, up 9 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 tons, up 0.43 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 66,790 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 80,800 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 222.91 tons, up 0.31 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 6,395.02 billion yuan, up 791.13 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, up 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.5 thousand pieces, up 415,345.5 thousand pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 44.79%, down 0.38%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 36.83%, up 0.19%. The implied volatility of the current month's at - the - money IV is 30.29%, up 0.0087; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.52, up 0.0179 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth can help inflation fall to the 2% target. The State Council executive meeting studied policies to promote effective investment. China's social logistics cost has been declining steadily, and the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP in 2025 dropped to 13.9%. The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February reached 57.3, and the 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%. China will build a "1 + N" policy system to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [2]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.2.6」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周集体下跌，科创50及创业板指跌幅较大，均跌超3%。四期指亦 集体走弱，此前涨幅明显的IC下行最大。本周，受到美国方面新任美联储主席提名带来的流 动性收紧预期冲击；以及人工智能产业过度投入而回报有限的担忧，使得美股科技股下行带 来的外溢效应影响，A股走势整体偏弱。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周显著回落。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -1.56 | -0.63 | 4637.6 | | | IH2603 | -1.23 | -0.80 | 3036.2 | | | IC2603 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw increased tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with rubber prices showing wide - range fluctuations. The trading atmosphere was generally subdued, and actual transactions were light [9]. - Currently, the domestic main production areas of natural rubber are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the off - season, with total supply shrinking. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has been increasing, and the demand from downstream tire companies has weakened. The short - term capacity utilization rate of tire companies may decline further [9]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15850 - 16600 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12850 - 13500 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory **3.1 Week - to - Week Summary** - Market Review: The natural rubber market had wide - range fluctuations. Import traders mainly focused on position rotation and replacement, with a small amount of arbitrage position increase. Factory purchasing was lackluster. Domestic spot prices adjusted with the market, and downstream purchasing willingness was weak, mainly for刚需 replenishment [9]. - Market Outlook: Supply is shrinking as domestic production areas are in the off - season and overseas is transitioning. Qingdao Port's inventory is increasing due to pre - holiday concentrated arrivals and weak downstream purchasing. Tire companies' capacity utilization rates are declining, and more companies will enter the Spring Festival holiday soon [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15850 - 16600, and the nr2604 contract between 12850 - 13500 in the short term [9]. **3.2 Futures and Spot Markets** - **Futures Market** - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 1.71% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price closed down 1.73% week - on - week [12]. - Position Analysis: No detailed analysis results are provided in the text, only the topics of position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber are mentioned [15][17]. - Inter - period Spread: As of February 6, the spread between Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 was 105, and the spread between 20 - rubber 3 - 4 was - 45 [24]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of February 5, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 111,570 tons, an increase of 640 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 50,399 tons, a decrease of 3,226 tons from last week [29]. - **Spot Market** - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of February 5, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - Basis: As of February 5, the 20 - rubber basis was 401 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 995 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton from last week [41]. **3.3 Industry Situation** - **Upstream** - Thailand: As of February 6, the field latex price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 59.3 (+1) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 54 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber theoretical processing profit was 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [45]. - Domestic: The Yunnan and Hainan production areas in China are in the off - season [48]. - **Import** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [54]. - **Inventory** - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23%. Bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; general trade inventory was 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82% [57]. - **Downstream** - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [60]. - Tire Exports: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, China's cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 3.2154 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 4.8586 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [63]. - Domestic Demand: In January 2026, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025, and a significant increase of about 39% year - on - year compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year [66]. **3.4 Option Market Analysis** No information provided.