1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated downward. Affected by overseas demand, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated downwards. However, with the possible interest - rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the price of Shanghai lead is expected to stabilize, and the upward possibility next week is expected to increase [4]. - Next week, the overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly, demand will remain largely unchanged, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - The operation of the Shanghai lead main contract 2508 is mainly volatile, with a volatile range of 16,800 - 17,400 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900 [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead futures was active this week, closing down 1.49%. Affected by overseas demand, the price fluctuated downward. With the possible interest - rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the price is expected to stabilize, and the technical form shows a "yin covering yang", increasing the possibility of an upward movement next week [4]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the production of primary lead smelters decreased due to the falling lead price. The supply of recycled lead is tight, and if the supply of waste batteries remains tight next week, the production of recycled lead will be restricted. On the demand side, although approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual demand is limited, and the downstream is still in a wait - and - see state. In terms of inventory, overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the overall demand is slowing down. In general, the overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will remain largely unchanged, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuates mainly, with a volatile range of 16,800 - 17,400 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900 [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the domestic and foreign futures prices of Shanghai lead decreased, and the ratio increased. As of July 18, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $1,983.5 per ton, and the futures closing price of the active lead contract was 16,820 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.48 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and foreign premium strengthened. As of July 18, 2025, the domestic futures premium was - 120 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $22.58 per ton [12][14]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Overseas and domestic lead inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating weak overall demand. As of July 17, 2025, the total lead inventory was 6,680 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 270,950 tons, an increase of 21,575 tons; the number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 60,284 tons, an increase of 9,651 tons [30][34]. 3.3 Industry Situation Supply Side - **Primary Lead**: The operating rate and production of primary lead smelters decreased due to the falling lead price and processing fees. As of July 10, 2025, the average operating rate of the main producing areas of primary lead was 77.87%, a decrease of 1.17% from last week; the weekly production of primary lead was 36,100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from last week [18][20]. - **Recycled Lead**: The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead enterprises began to rise slightly due to the increase in waste lead recycling. However, it is still in the off - season, and the recovery of waste batteries is small, so the capacity recovery is slow. As of July 10, 2025, the domestic production of the main producing areas of recycled lead was 20,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,500 tons; the average capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 43.47%, a month - on - month increase of 5.61% [24][28]. - **Enterprise Quantity**: The number of recycled lead production enterprises remained unchanged. As of June 30, 2025, the total number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68 [36][38]. - **Import and Export**: In May, the export of refined lead increased significantly, and the import of refined lead also increased significantly. There was an arbitrage space due to the price difference between overseas and domestic lead ingots and the low domestic processing fees [40][42]. Demand Side - **Processing Fees**: The domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees remained unchanged, and the decline in production was expected to end. As of July 11, 2025, the average national processing price of lead concentrate was 560 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC of imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $50 per thousand tons [44][46]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: The growth rate of automobile production and sales decreased. In June 2025, the domestic automobile sales were 2.904 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 13.8% [48][51]. - **Battery and Charging Piles**: The price of lead - acid batteries remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of May 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4,082,800; as of July 17, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group [53][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The international economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic, with a slight decline in manufacturing activity and cautious corporate hiring The domestic government is taking measures to strengthen the domestic market cycle and boost consumption [4] - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation where supply increases slightly and demand is temporarily weak, with industrial inventories at a medium - low level Overall, Shanghai copper may face pressure [4] - It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper main contract oscillated at a low level on the weekly chart, with a weekly change of - 0.03% and an amplitude of 1.13%, closing at 78,410 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic Domestically, policies aim to boost the domestic market cycle In the mining end, the copper concentrate TC spot index rebounded slightly but remained in negative territory, and port inventories increased slightly Supply may increase steadily due to sufficient raw materials and good by - product prices Demand was affected by the seasonal off - season, with lower downstream processing enterprise operations and orders, and cautious purchasing The domestic social inventory increased slightly but remained at a medium - low level [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract had a basis of 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week The contract price was 78,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week, and the open interest was 145,430 lots, a decrease of 33,252 lots from last week [9] - **Spot Prices**: As of July 18, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,660 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 665 yuan/ton The main contract's inter - month spread was - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton from last week [12] - **Premiums and Positions**: As of the latest data, the Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from last week The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai copper was 1,352 lots, an increase of 255 lots from last week [21] - **Options Market**: As of July 18, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.6265, an increase of 0.0238 from last week [26] 3. Upstream Situation - **Mining Quotes and Processing Fees**: As of the latest data, the copper concentrate quote in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 68,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton from last week The southern rough copper processing fee was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29] - **Imports and Price Spreads**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3952 million tons, a decrease of 509,800 tons from April, a decline of 17.55% but a year - on - year increase of 6.59% As of the latest data, the refined - scrap copper price spread (tax - included) was 1,130.31 yuan/ton, an increase of 107.31 yuan/ton from last week [34] - **Global Production and Inventories**: As of April 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.909 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons from March, a decline of 3% The global capacity utilization rate was 79.2%, unchanged from March The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 489,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from the previous period [39] 4. Industry Situation - **Supply - Refined Copper Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from May, an increase of 3.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.43% As of April 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper was 2.365 million tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from March, a decline of 2.27% The global capacity utilization rate was 82.3%, an increase of 0.3% from March [42] - **Supply - Refined Copper Imports**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 292,694.313 tons, a decrease of 7,487.63 tons from April, a decline of 2.49% and a year - on - year decline of 15.64% As of the latest data, the import profit and loss was - 251.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 560.09 yuan/ton from last week [49][50] - **Supply - Social Inventories**: As of the latest data, the LME total inventory increased by 12,525 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 5,360 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 14,932 tons from last week The total social inventory was 144,400 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from last week [53] 5. Downstream and Application - **Demand - Copper Product Output and Imports**: As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, an increase of 118,500 tons from May, an increase of 5.65% The monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from May, an increase of 6.98% and a year - on - year increase of 4.55% [58] - **Application - Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production**: As of May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.39% and 19.8% respectively As of June 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 16.5%, 3%, 4.8%, 18.9%, and - 11.1% respectively [64] - **Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of June 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 4.665756 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 11.2% and a month - on - month increase of 28.77% The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 239,469,611,000 pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% and a month - on - month increase of 23.78% [70] 6. Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of April 2025, the global refined copper supply had a monthly shortage of 50,000 tons According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of April 2025 was 193,600 tons [75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are facing a situation of weak supply and demand, with poor inventory reduction, and are under oscillatory pressure [9]. - For nickel, macro - factors include the US retail sales growth and potential EU - US trade war. Fundamentally, supply costs are rising, and some non - integrated smelters are reducing production due to profit losses. Demand from the stainless - steel and battery sectors is weak, and inventories are rising [9]. - For stainless steel, although the cost of raw materials is decreasing, steel mills are increasing production cuts due to losses. Demand is weak in the traditional off - season, and inventory reduction is not ideal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Nickel**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly decline of 0.73% and an amplitude of 2.38%. The closing price was 120,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short lightly on rallies [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: This week, stainless steel oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of 0.12% and an amplitude of 1.42%. The closing price was 12,725 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price**: As of July 18, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) was 900 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 120,500 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,725 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from last week [15]. - **Basis**: As of July 18, the electrolytic nickel spot price was 121,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,000 yuan/ton; the stainless - steel basis was 600 yuan/ton [19]. - **Price Ratio**: As of July 18, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel was 9.47, down 0.08 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to nickel was 2.2 yuan/ton, up 0.02 from last week [23]. - **Net Long Positions**: As of July 18, the net long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel decreased by 6,436 lots compared to July 14, and the net long positions of the top 20 in stainless steel increased by 5,070 lots [31]. 3.3. Industry Chain - **Supply Side** - **Nickel Ore**: As of July 11, the nickel ore inventory at major ports was 896,490 wet tons, up 2.83% from last week [34]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: In April 2025, the electrolytic nickel output was 36,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,687.576 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%, and the cumulative import from January to May was 78,738.983 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.39% [39]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the LME nickel inventory was 21,560 tons, up 1,118 tons from last week; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,277 tons, up 230 tons from last week [41][44]. - **Demand Side** - **Stainless Steel Production**: In June 2025, the total output of stainless crude steel was 329.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%. Among them, the output of 400 - series was 558,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.48%; the output of 300 - series was 1.744 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28%; the output of 200 - series was 989,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35% [48]. - **Stainless Steel Trade**: In May 2025, the stainless - steel import volume was 122,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the export volume was 360,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,100 tons [48]. - **Regional Inventory**: As of July 18, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 320,410 tons, down 20,449 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 595,917 tons, up 6,112 tons from last week [52]. - **Stainless Steel Profit**: As of July 18, the stainless - steel production profit was - 8 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from last week [56]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Real Estate**: From January to June 2025, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% [60]. - **Home Appliances**: In June 2025, the air - conditioner output was 28.3831 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.18%; the refrigerator output was 9.0474 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%; the washing - machine output was 9.5079 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.57%; the freezer output was 2.4139 million units, a year - on - year increase of 18.82% [60]. - **Automotive**: In June 2025, the output of new - energy vehicles was 2.794 million, a year - on - year increase of 28.7%; the sales volume was 2.904 million, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% [64]. - **Machinery**: In June 2025, the excavator output was 26,810 units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; the output of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,662 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%; the output of small tractors was 10,000 units, unchanged year - on - year [64].

Report Overview - Report Title: "2025.07.18 - Weekly Report on the Pig Market: Expected Range-bound Fluctuations in Pig Prices" [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Industry: Pig Market 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Pig prices showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the main contract declining by 1.46% on a weekly basis. In the short term, increased supply and weak demand will suppress price fluctuations. However, as prices weaken, it may stimulate the sentiment of farmers to hold prices and attract secondary fattening, and the slaughter rhythm may slow down again at the end of the month, limiting the downside space. Overall, the market is expected to show a volatile trend, and short - term prices will change with the slaughter and secondary fattening entry and exit rhythms. The recommended strategy is range trading or waiting and seeing [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices first declined and then rose, with the main contract down 1.46% weekly [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply increased as the slaughter rhythm of farmers recovered in mid - month and the proportion of large pigs for slaughter accelerated due to high - temperature and rainy weather in the South. Demand was weak as high temperatures reduced people's willingness to buy pork, schools were on holiday, and the terminal sales were slow, leading to a continuous decline in the slaughterhouse operating rate, although it was higher than the same period last year. Overall, short - term supply increase and weak demand will suppress price fluctuations, but lower prices may stimulate farmers' price - holding sentiment and attract secondary fattening, and the slaughter rhythm may slow down at the end of the month, limiting the downside space. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Range trading or waiting and seeing [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Futures prices first declined and then rose, with the main contract down 1.46% weekly [11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures was 16,156 lots, a decrease of 721 lots from the previous week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 284, a decrease of 3 from the previous week [17]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The basis of the September contract was 65 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 565 yuan/ton this week [21]. - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average price of live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week but an increase of 2.35% from the previous month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week and the same period last month [28]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: On July 10, the national average market price of pork was 25.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of July 9, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.27, an increase of 0.06 from the previous week, but still below the break - even point [36]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 heads (0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. In June, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.29% month - on - month and 4.20% year - on - year, and in small and medium - sized farms, it increased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month and 7.05% year - on - year [41]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In May, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.30% month - on - month, and in small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 0.57% month - on - month [44]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In June, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 10.7682 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.60% and a year - on - year increase of 23.60%, while in small and medium - sized farms, it was 487,700 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40% but a year - on - year increase of 57.41%. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.49 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg from the previous week [47]. 3.4.2 Industry Profit - **Pig Farming Profit**: As of July 18, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 18.66 yuan/head, a decrease of 50.26 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 90.89 yuan/head, a decrease of 42.98 yuan/head from the previous week [52]. - **Poultry Farming Profit**: As of July 18, the profit of egg - laying hens was a loss of 0.47 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 0.22 yuan/head from the previous week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was a loss of 0.56 yuan/head [52]. 3.4.3 Import - In the first six months of 2025, China imported a total of 540,000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, which was at a historically low level during the same period [57]. 3.4.4 Substitutes - As of the week of July 11, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. As of the week of July 17, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week [61]. 3.4.5 Feed - **Feed Price**: As of July 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 2938.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2409.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.45 yuan/ton from the previous week [66]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of July 18, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 944.59, an increase of 0.7% from the previous week. This week, the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [70]. - **Feed Output**: As of June 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.9377 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 175,600 tons [75]. 3.4.6 CPI - As of June 2025, the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.1% [79]. 3.4.7 Downstream - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Cold Storage Capacity**: In the 29th week, the operating rate of slaughterhouses was 25.15%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from the previous week but 5.94 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of Thursday this week, the cold storage capacity of key domestic slaughterhouses was 17.44%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points from the previous week [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 4.52%. In June 2025, the national catering revenue was 47.076 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. 3.5 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the China National Coal Association emphasizes scientific production rhythm, improved coal supply quality, and industry self - discipline to balance the coal market. The steel industry shows a trend of reduced development but increased industrial concentration. Overseas, Trump plans to impose tariffs on products from Mexico and the EU, and may impose sanctions on Russia. In terms of supply and demand, mine - end inventories have decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, market confidence has improved, and the total inventory is moderately high. Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is bearish. It is recommended to treat the main coking coal contract as oscillating, as short - term price increases may face pressure due to high inventories and enhanced macro - disturbances [8] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary a. Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 192.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 tons. The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants is 53.38 tons, an increase of 0.79 tons. The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1858.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46.92 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.85%. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 43 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.79 tons [7] b. Market Outlook - Macroeconomic policies aim to balance the coal market and the steel industry shows a trend of reduced development. Overseas, tariff policies may impact the market. Supply - demand shows mine - end destocking and inventory transfer. Technically, the weekly K - line is bearish. The recommended strategy is to treat the main contract as oscillating [8] 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Market - As of July 18, the coking coal futures contract open interest is 83.76 million hands, a week - on - week increase of 4.57 million hands. The price difference between the coking coal 1 - 9 contracts is 49.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50 yuan/ton. The number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 500 hands, a week - on - week increase of 300 hands. The price difference between the main coke and coking coal contracts is 592.00, a week - on - week decrease of 14.50 points [14][20] b. Spot Market - As of July 17, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 980 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the coking coal basis is 61.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.50 [24] 3. Industrial Chain Situation a. Coal Mine End - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 86.1%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The daily average output of raw coal is 192.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 tons, and the raw coal inventory is 615.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.6 tons. The daily average output of clean coal is 77.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 tons, and the clean coal inventory is 339.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38.1 tons. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 62.85%, an increase of 0.53%. The daily average output is 53.38 tons, an increase of 0.79 tons. The raw coal inventory is 298.69 tons, a decrease of 2.08 tons, and the clean coal inventory is 191.54 tons, a decrease of 5.53 tons [30] b. Total Coking Coal Inventory - The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1858.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46.92 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.85%. The inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises shows an increase in coking coal inventory and available days [34] c. Port Inventory - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 553.50 tons, a decrease of 0.29 tons. The coke inventory at 18 ports is 252.71 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons [38] d. Downstream Situation - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.79 tons. The steel mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points [42] e. Independent Coking Plants - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 43 yuan/ton. Different regions have different profit situations, with Shandong showing a profit and Inner Mongolia showing a large loss [47] f. Upstream Situation - From January to June, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size is 24.0 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the output is 4.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%, with a daily average output of 1404 million tons. In May 2025, China's coking coal output is 4070.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. From January to May, the cumulative import of coking coal is 4379.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.17% [52][56]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2420 in the short term [7]. - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts in the domestic methanol industry is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a slight decrease in overall production [8]. - The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises showed differences this week. Some enterprises continued to accumulate inventory due to weak downstream demand, while the overall inventory decreased as some olefin plants consumed the accumulated methanol inventory. The methanol port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - In terms of demand, some olefin plants are under maintenance, while the operating load of enterprises in East China has slightly increased. The overall operating rate of the olefin industry is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The domestic port methanol market fluctuated slightly this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2380 - 2410 yuan/ton. The inland market showed regional differentiation, with prices in Ordos North Line ranging from 1973 - 1990 yuan/ton and in Dongying from 2245 - 2250 yuan/ton. The price in the Guanzhong area was weak [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The overall domestic methanol production decreased slightly. The inventory of inland enterprises showed differences, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The overall operating rate of the olefin industry is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the main methanol futures contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.21% [12]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of July 18, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 69 [16]. - **Open Interest Analysis**: No specific analysis results were mentioned in the provided content. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, there were 8544 methanol warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 146 compared to last week [23]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of July 18, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2387.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 1982.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 405 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to last week [29]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of July 17, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 275 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 58 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [35]. - **Basis**: As of July 18, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 22.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [39]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of July 16, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of July 17, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.51 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.14 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [42]. - **Industry**: As of July 17, China's methanol production was 1,869,725 tons, a decrease of 30,003 tons compared to last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 82.69%, a decrease of 1.58% month - on - month [46]. - **Inventory**: As of July 16, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 790,200 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, a decrease of 0.46% compared to the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 243,100 tons, an increase of 9.89% compared to the previous period [49]. - **Import**: In May 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.2923 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.06%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.3694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.43%. As of July 17, the methanol import profit was - 2.79 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.92 yuan/ton compared to last week [53]. - **Downstream**: As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.27%. As of July 18, the domestic methanol - to - olefin profit was - 882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton compared to last week [56][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures rebounded after hitting the bottom this week, with the closing price of the main 2509 contract at 2314 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the good initial growth rate of US corn. In the domestic market, the auction volume of imported corn is decreasing, and the actual transaction is not ideal, with prices showing a slight downward trend. The decline has slowed down recently [7]. - Dalian corn starch futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with the closing price of the main 2509 contract at 2658 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week. Affected by continuous losses in production, the industry's operating rate is at a low level, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. The decline has also slowed down recently [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn** - Strategy: Trade short - term [6][10] - Market review: The main 2509 contract of corn futures closed at 2314 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous week [7] - Outlook: High initial growth rate of US corn puts pressure on international prices. In China, auction volume is decreasing, and downstream demand is weak, with prices slightly weakening [7] - **Corn Starch** - Strategy: Participate short - term [10] - Market review: The main 2509 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2658 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week [11] - Outlook: Low operating rate due to losses reduces supply pressure, but demand is weak, and inventory has increased [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - Corn futures' September contract rebounded after hitting the bottom, with a total position of 1067675 lots, an increase of 36775 lots from the previous week [17] - Corn starch futures' September contract rebounded after hitting the bottom, with a total position of 261814 lots, an increase of 13950 lots from the previous week [17] - **Net Position Changes of the Top Twenty** - The net short position of corn futures' top twenty increased, with this week's net position at - 32519, compared to - 30902 last week [23] - The net short position of corn starch futures' top twenty increased, with this week's net position at - 13718, compared to - 9506 last week [23] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 178283 lots [29] - The registered warehouse receipts of corn starch are 12334 lots [29] - **Spot Price and Basis** - As of July 17, 2025, the average spot price of corn is 2409.12 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active September contract and the spot average price is + 95 yuan/ton [34] - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin is 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 2900 yuan/ton, with a slight decline this week. The basis between the September contract and the Jilin Changchun spot is 192 yuan/ton [38] - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread** - The 9 - 1 spread of corn futures is 70 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [45] - The 9 - 1 spread of corn starch futures is 41 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [45] - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn** - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn is 344 yuan/ton. In the 29th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch is 390 yuan/ton, narrowing 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [54] - **Substitute Spread** - As of July 17, 2025, the average spot price of wheat is 2441.33 yuan/ton, and that of corn is 2409.12 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 32.21 yuan/ton [59] - In the 29th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 179 yuan/ton, widening 40 yuan/ton compared to last week [59] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn** - **Supply Side** - As of July 11, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port is 83.8 tons, a decrease of 4.80 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory is 1.1 tons, a decrease of 0.20 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports is 230.6 tons, a decrease of 29.0 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume is 60.2 tons, an increase of 18.40 tons week - on - week [49] - In May 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 19.00 tons, a decrease of 86.00 tons (81.90%) compared to the same period last year, and an increase of 1.00 tons compared to the previous month [67] - As of July 17, the average inventory of national feed enterprises is 31.34 days, a decrease of 0.24 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.19% [71] - **Demand Side** - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory is 41731 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of May, the breeding sow inventory is 4042 million, a month - on - month increase of 4 million, and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [75] - As of July 11, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit is 133.87 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets is 31.6 yuan/head [78] - As of July 17, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin is - 72 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan is - 373 yuan/ton, in Jilin is - 480 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang is - 111 yuan/ton [83] - **Corn Starch** - **Supply Side** - As of July 16, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions is 427 tons, a decrease of 3.74% [87] - From July 10 - 16, 2025, the national corn processing volume is 53.78 tons, an increase of 0.11 tons from last week; the national corn starch output is 26.02 tons, an increase of 0.08 tons from last week; the operating rate is 50.29%, an increase of 0.15% from last week [91] - As of July 16, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises is 134.6 tons, an increase of 0.90 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.67%, a month - on - month increase of 2.83%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.27% [91] 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of July 18, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn is 9.54%, an increase of 1.87% from last week's 7.67%. The implied volatility has rebounded this week and is at a slightly higher level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [94]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures both increased. Industrial silicon rose by 3.33%, mainly driven by the rise in polysilicon. Polysilicon rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but the increase converged and prices fell on Friday. Next week, the futures prices are expected to consolidate at high levels with a downward - shifting center of gravity [5]. - For industrial silicon, on the supply side, the spot price increased significantly. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Northwest Yili region remained stable, and large - scale producers showed no signs of production cuts. The production cost in the Southwest decreased, with some regions having a positive resumption of production. On the demand side, the overall demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continued to slow down [5]. - For polysilicon, on the supply side, the overall production increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some under maintenance. On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declined significantly, and downstream demand weakened marginally. The overall demand side still faces great pressure [5]. - In terms of operations, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7800 - 9200. The main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with an oscillation range of 40000 - 45000 and a stop - loss range of 38500 - 46000 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices rose by 3.33% this week, driven by polysilicon. There were rumors of silicon material storage, but they were unconfirmed. Polysilicon prices rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but prices fell on Friday due to weak downstream feedback [5]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply increased, and demand from downstream industries slowed down. For polysilicon, supply increased slightly, and demand faced great pressure. If the silicon material storage rumor is disproven next week, prices are expected to fall [5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon should oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term within 40000 - 45000, with corresponding stop - loss ranges [5]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures and spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 655 yuan/ton. The production and operating rate increased, with a national output of about 78,900 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 54.33% [11][13][20]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the spot price remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 46 yuan/kg, and the basis was 2150 yuan/g [15][17]. 3.3. Industry Conditions - **Raw Materials and Costs**: Industrial silicon raw material prices fell slightly, electricity prices decreased, and overall costs continued to decline during the wet season. The electricity price in the Southwest was stable at 0.3 yuan/kWh, and the silica price remained stable [23][26]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, and the overall inventory remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50,357 lots, a decrease of 435 lots, and the total social inventory was 553,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons [28][30]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Production and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, but costs increased significantly, leading to a decline in profits. As of July 18, 2025, the weekly output was 44,900 tons, the operating rate was 71.38% (up 1.97%), the spot price was 10,860 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton), the gross profit was 63 yuan/ton (down 263 yuan/ton), and the cost was 10,797 yuan/ton (up 323 yuan/ton) [33][37][44]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices fell, inventory increased significantly, and passive de - stocking continued. As of July 18, 2025, the price was 20,100 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), and the inventory was 37,200 tons (up 5800 tons) [46][48]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Silicon wafer and battery cell prices fell, while polysilicon prices rose, but downstream acceptance was weak. As of July 18, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.17 yuan/piece (down 0.02 yuan/piece), and the battery cell price was 0.26 yuan/watt (down 0.02 yuan/watt) [53][55]. - **Polysilicon Production Cost and Output**: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, while the industrial silicon price increased, leading to higher production costs. In June 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 92,160 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous month (a 3.15% month - on - month decrease) [60][65].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall economic data is positive, which drives the stock market to rise. The A - share major indexes and stock index futures all increased this week, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The bond market is under pressure due to the strong performance of the equity market, but the long - term bullish foundation of the bond market remains intact considering the weak economic fundamentals, balanced and loose capital, and low inflation [6]. - The U.S. dollar may rebound in the short - term but is likely to remain weak in the medium - term due to factors such as tariff - related inflation risks, profit compression of enterprises, and structural contradictions. The recovery momentum of the eurozone and Japan is different, and trade frictions have affected market confidence [10]. - China's economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with manufacturing and domestic demand driving the economy. Fixed - asset investment is stable, but the real estate market needs further improvement [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock**: The A - share major indexes and four stock index futures all increased this week, with small and medium - cap stocks stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The release of positive economic data promoted the rise of the stock market. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Bond**: This week, the bond futures showed a pattern of short - term strength and long - term weakness. The equity market's strength suppressed the bond market sentiment, but the long - term bullish foundation of the bond market remains. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Commodity**: The commodity market may strengthen further due to factors such as the GDP growth meeting expectations and the approaching Politburo meeting. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The U.S. dollar is in a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the euro and the euro - dollar futures decreased. The short - term pressure on the euro and yen is affected by the U.S. dollar's rebound. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic**: China's macro - policies have achieved results, and the economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations. The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide long - term and stable investment of insurance funds, which is beneficial to the capital market [11][14]. - **International**: Trump announced tariffs on Canadian goods, and the U.S. and Indonesia reached a tariff agreement. The EU prepared to impose counter - tariffs on U.S. goods, and the Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slightly pessimistic economic outlook [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In June, the export and import rates improved, the M1 and M2 money supply increased, the second - quarter GDP growth rate was 5.2%, and the industrial added value increased by 6.8%. However, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment and social consumption decreased [17]. - **U.S.**: In June, the CPI met expectations, the PPI decreased, and the initial jobless claims in the week ending July 12 were lower than expected [17]. - **EU**: In May, the industrial output increased, and the June CPI remained stable [17]. - **UK**: In June, the retail price index increased, and the unemployment rate slightly rose [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as China's one - year loan prime rate, U.S. existing home sales, eurozone central bank deposit rate, and UK consumer confidence index will be released [82]. 3.5 Central Bank's Open Market Operations This week, the central bank conducted 172.68 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 52.57 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net injection of 120.11 billion yuan [19].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Shanghai Zinc Market [2] - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc declined and then rebounded, with a weekly decline of 0.38% and an amplitude of 1.83%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,295 yuan/ton [6]. - Macroscopically, the month-on-month growth of US retail sales in June exceeded expectations, reversing the decline in the previous two months. The EU is drafting a tariff list for US services, preparing for an escalation of the trade war [6]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the processing fee of zinc ore has continued to rise, and the price of sulfuric acid has increased significantly. The profit of smelters has been further repaired, and their production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various places have been gradually released, and the previously shut-down production capacities have resumed production, so the supply growth has accelerated. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off-season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year-on-year. Recently, zinc prices have been widely adjusted. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand at low prices and have a low acceptance of high-priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have continued to increase, and the spot premium has dropped to a low level. Overseas LME inventories have slightly rebounded, but the spot premium has increased. The strong LME zinc price has driven up the domestic zinc price [6]. - Technically, the positions are decreasing, both longs and shorts are cautious, and the price is oscillating within a range. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 22,500 mark [6]. - It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go short lightly on rallies [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc declined and then rebounded this week, with a weekly decline of 0.38% and an amplitude of 1.83%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,295 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect zinc prices. The supply is increasing, while the demand is in the off - season. The LME zinc price is strong, driving the domestic price. Technically, it is in a range - bound state [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see temporarily or go short lightly on rallies [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 18, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 22,295 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from July 11, 2025, a decrease of 0.38%. As of July 17, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,737.5 US dollars/ton, down 39.5 US dollars/ton from July 11, 2025, a decrease of 1.42%. The Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [11]. - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of July 18, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc were 16,905 lots, a decrease of 16,095 lots from July 11, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai zinc was 226,362 lots, a decrease of 25,727 lots from July 11, 2025, a decrease of 10.21% [13]. - **Price Spreads**: As of July 18, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from July 11, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,475 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton from July 11, 2025 [18]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,370 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from July 11, 2025, a decrease of 0.62%. The spot discount was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of July 17, 2025, the spread between the near - month and 3 - month LME zinc was - 3.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.88 US dollars/ton from July 10, 2025 [24]. - **Inventories**: As of July 18, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 119,100 tons, an increase of 13,850 tons from July 11, 2025, an increase of 13.16%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 54,630 tons, an increase of 4,649 tons from last week, an increase of 9.3%. As of July 17, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 74,300 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from July 10, 2025, an increase of 2.48% [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. In May 2025, the monthly import of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28% [31]. - **Supply - Side**: In April 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.59 million tons, an increase of 0.52%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0238 million tons, an increase of 2.17%. The global refined zinc surplus was 0.016 million tons, compared with a surplus of 0.0339 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS reported a supply shortage in the global zinc market in May 2024. In June 2025, China's zinc production was 628,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative zinc output was 3.545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. In May 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%; the refined zinc export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [34][38][41]. - **Downstream**: - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%; the export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [44]. - **Real Estate**: From January to June 2025, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.14%; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.87%. From January to June 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 5.020229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%; among them, personal mortgage loans were 0.6847 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.4% [49][50]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to June 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year - on - year. In June 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.6, a decrease of 0.11 from the previous month and an increase of 1.61 from the same period last year [53]. - **Home Appliances**: In June 2025, the refrigerator production was 9.0474 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the cumulative refrigerator production was 50.6416 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0%. In June 2025, the air - conditioner production was 28.3831 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 163.2961 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [56]. - **Automobiles**: In June 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,904,482 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.83%; China's automobile production was 2,794,105 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% [60].