本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | | 沪锌产业日报 | | 2025-10-15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 22015 | -205 10-11月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -70 | -50 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) 2953.5 | -58.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 210731 | 675 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) 3063 | -4649 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 65666 | 7172 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) 106950 | 8940 LME库存(日,吨) | 38600 | 1125 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) 22010 | -200 长江有色 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 塑料产业日报 2025-10-15 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 及往年水平。市场消化中美贸易争端影响，近期国际油价低位震荡整理，日内工业品低开高走、涨跌互现 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 。短期L2601预计震荡走势，区间预计在6860-6960附近。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6910 | -8 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6910 | -8 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The decline of EB2511 is expected to weaken, with the daily range estimated to be around 6480 - 6600 [3]. - The output and capacity utilization rate of styrene are expected to increase slightly this week. The mismatch between upstream and downstream production may deepen the supply - demand contradiction. The inventory pressure is relatively high and may maintain a slow destocking trend. The cost support effect is gradually strengthening [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures active contracts is 433,433 lots, with a decrease of 7,309 lots; the closing price of the active contract is 6,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the long position of the top 20 holders is 299,752 lots, with a decrease of 4,064 lots; the net long position is - 20,008 lots, with a decrease of 7,092 lots; the short position is 440,525 lots, with an increase of 1,325 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,341 lots, with a decrease of 80 lots [2]. - The closing price of the November contract is 6,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 811 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price is 6600 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 100 US dollars/ton [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7,020 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 6,675 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), 6,615 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), and 6,585 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 786 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 716 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton [2]. - The FOB US Gulf spot price of pure benzene is 695.86 cents/gallon, unchanged; the CIF Taiwan price is 250 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the FOB Rotterdam price is 655 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The market prices in South, East, and North China are 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,630 yuan/ton, and 5,510 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 73.61%, with an increase of 2.37%. The national styrene inventory is 193,863 tons, with a decrease of 9,411 tons; the total inventory in East China's main ports is 19.65 million tons, with a decrease of 0.54 million tons; the trade inventory in East China's main ports is 12.15 million tons, with an increase of 0.51 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 40.74% (down 2.37%), 72.5% (up 1.5%), 54.6% (down 1.7%), 20% (down 7%), and 70.05% (down 0.27%) respectively [2]. Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th , China's styrene factory output was 347,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3%; the capacity utilization rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2.37% [2]. - From October 3rd to 9th , the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 239,800 tons [2]. - As of October 9th , the styrene factory inventory was 193,900 tons, a decrease of 4.63% from the previous period. As of October 13th , the styrene inventory in East China's ports was 196,500 tons, a decrease of 2.67% from the previous period; the inventory in South China's ports was 30,500 tons, a decrease of 11.59% [2]. - As of October 13th , the non - integrated cost of styrene was 7,204.32 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit was - 499.32 yuan/ton [2].

本周己内酰胺、苯酚、己二酸装置负荷有下降预期，短期内需求端持续偏弱。美国对华造船等行业301调查 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 限制措施落地，昨日国际油价回落。市场消化中美贸易争端影响，近期国际油价低位震荡整理，日内工业 免责声明 品低开高走、涨跌互现。短期BZ2603预计震荡走势，日度区间预计在5530-5630附近。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 纯苯产业日报 2025-10-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 5579 | -1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of October 15, domestic methanol production output increased slightly, with the production capacity of resumed plants exceeding that of those under maintenance or reduction. The total port inventory decreased, with destocking in East China and inventory accumulation in South China. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises increased. The MTO industry maintained high - level operation, but the short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2270 - 2350 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2298 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 13 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 1038960 lots, down 12400 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 124683 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 11282, unchanged [2]. b. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2310 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2077.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The East - West price difference was 232.5 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 12 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port was 261 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 325 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton. FOB Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia was - 64 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton [2]. c. Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas was 3.03 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.07 US dollars [2]. d. Industry Situation - East China port inventory was 108.05 tons, up 4.78 tons; South China port inventory was 46.27 tons, up 0.32 tons. Methanol import profit was 25.83 yuan/ton, up 10.4 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 175.98 tons, up 65.71 tons. Inland enterprise inventory was 339400 tons, up 19500 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate was 89.59%, up 7.06% [2]. e. Downstream Situation - Formaldehyde operating rate was 34.11%, down 10.07%; dimethyl ether operating rate was 4.98%, down 2.22%; acetic acid operating rate was 82.96%, up 3.99%; MTBE operating rate was 64.12%, down 0.11%; olefin operating rate was 93.19%, up 1.3%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 1099 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan/ton [2]. f. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.67%, up 0.67%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.08%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.54%, up 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.52%, up 0.25% [2]. g. Industry News - As of October 15, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.99 tons, up 2.05 tons, a 6.04% increase; the order backlog was 22.89 tons, up 11.37 tons, a 98.64% increase. The total port inventory was 149.14 tons, down 5.18 tons. East China destocked by 8.35 tons, and South China accumulated inventory by 3.17 tons. As of October 9, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 93.74%, up 4.49% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The President of Indonesia ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, which may exacerbate the shortage of tin ore supply; the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar has rebounded, and short - term supply shows signs of improvement, but tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows [3] - In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level [3] - On the demand side, the sharp rise in tin prices has suppressed spot transactions. Most downstream enterprises are in a wait - and - see state and only make purchases based on strict rigid demand. Traders tend to sell at high prices, resulting in restricted overall transactions [3] - Social inventories have decreased, and the spot premium has rebounded to 400 yuan/ton; LME inventories are decreasing, and the spot premium is stable. Technically, with a decrease in positions and a fall in prices, attention should be paid to the 28 support level. It is recommended to wait and see for now, or try to go long with a light position on pullbacks, focusing on the 28 - 29 range [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 281,710 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract for Shanghai tin is 180 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 35,290 US dollars/ton, down 460 US dollars; the position volume of the main Shanghai tin contract is 28,565 lots, down 761 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 1,533 lots, down 829 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 2,385 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 5,879 tons, down 550 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 190 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 5,677 tons, up 50 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 281,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 282,070 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [3] - The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 10 yuan/ton, down 1,580 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 113 US dollars/ton, down 7.01 US dollars [3] - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 10,300 tons, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 182,630 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, unchanged; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,109,300 tons, up 144,800 tons [3] Industry News - Li Qiang chaired a symposium of economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing counter - cyclical regulation, expanding domestic demand, and building an industrial ecosystem [3] - Powell left the door open for Fed rate cuts, saying the outlook has not changed much since the September meeting, employment downside risks are significant, and the Fed may be close to stopping balance - sheet reduction [3] - Fed Governor Bowman expects two rate cuts by the end of the year, and the current more significant risk lies in employment. The Fed is promoting a phased reform proposal for the stress - testing process [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook Report, forecasting that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the July forecast, and maintain the 2026 growth forecast at 3.1%. The IMF also slightly raised the economic growth forecasts of the United States for this year and next by 0.1 percentage points and kept China's economic growth forecast for this year at 4.8% [3]

| | | 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 沪镍产业日报 2025-10-15 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 格震荡，多空交投分歧，关注12万关口支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或区间轻仓操作。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 121180 | 350 10-11月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -170 | 170 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15104 | -76 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 68681 | -4426 | | | 期货前20名持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of V2601 are bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with the range estimated to be between 4,620 - 4,710 yuan/ton [2]. - The inventory is expected to maintain a high - level accumulation trend. The demand growth is restricted by the weak domestic real - estate market, and the export market may remain on the sidelines due to the impact of the Indian anti - dumping tax [2]. - The calcium carbide process is in deep loss, and chlor - alkali enterprises use "alkali to make up for chlorine". However, the calcium carbide supply is abundant and the price is weak, so the cost - side support is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC futures is 4,677 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume is 632,849 lots, down 103,795 lots; the open interest is 1,271,985 lots, up 17,706 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 168,866 lots, down 13,513 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC in East and South China have declined. The domestic and international PVC prices in some regions remain unchanged, and the basis is - 97 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The price of calcium carbide in the Northwest has decreased by 5 yuan/ton, while the prices in other regions remain unchanged. The prices of VCM in CFR Far East and Southeast Asia have increased, while the prices of EDC remain unchanged [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 82.63%, up 3.66 percentage points. The social inventory of PVC is 55.7 tons, up 1.93 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The real - estate related indicators show a mixed trend. The new housing construction area and real - estate development investment have increased, while the national real - estate prosperity index has decreased [3]. - **Option Market**: The historical volatility of PVC has decreased, while the implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options has increased [3]. b. Industry News - From October 4th to 10th, the utilization rate of China's PVC production capacity was 82.63%, up 1.21% from the previous period [3]. - From October 4th to 10th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 8.55% to 39.21%, with the pipe operating rate down 7.6% to 32.83% and the profile operating rate down 23.04% to 15.87% [3]. - As of October 9th, the social inventory of PVC was 103.63 tons, up 5.58% from the previous week [3]. - From October 4th to 10th, the cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 168 yuan/ton to 5,126 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 5,493 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 153 yuan/ton to - 622 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 538 yuan/ton [3].

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10895 | 115 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 24468 | -4607 | | | 合成橡胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | -225 | -115 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 3070 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 11050 | -100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11000 | -100 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11050 | 东(日,元/吨) -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 11100 | -100 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 14895 0 | 50 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -15 20号胶11-12价差(日,元/吨) | 12195 40 | 205 20 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2660 | -195 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 149446 | -384 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 22169 | -5323 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -25886 | 899 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -12440 | -1940 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 139560 | -860 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 39917 14250 | -1512 0 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 14950 | 0 | | | 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 1820 ...