瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 目录 本周贵金属市场继续强势收涨，白银走势整体强于黄金 图1、沪金与COMEX金期价 图2、沪银与COMEX银期价 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：关税局势风波再起，在避险买盘需求的支撑下，贵金属市场本周继续强势收涨，金银价格接连突破历 史新高。特朗普释放关税战升温信号，推动市场避险情绪显著抬升，但考虑到此前特朗普在关税问题上立场反复 不断，本轮关税局势实质性升温的可能性或仍相对有限。从当前盘面来看，虽技术指标显示市场严重超买迹象， 金银价格短期回落后均有较强的买盘需求支撑，且外盘ETF以及CFTC投机持仓仍未达到历史峰值水平，说明贵金属 仍有继续上行的空间。美联储官员近期言论偏向鸽派，9月会议纪要显示多数委员支持进一步降息以应对增长放缓 及就业疲软，10月和12月各有逾90%和80%的 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格小幅上涨，主力合约EC2512收涨3.09%，远月合约收涨1-8%不等。最新SCFIS欧线 结算运价指数为1031.80，较上周回落14.7点，环比下行1.4%，现货指标回落但降幅收窄。鹿特丹港罢工危机升级， 原定48小时停工被无限期延长，导致港口集装箱装卸业务全面停滞。受此影响，超60艘船舶在海上停泊等待，区域供 应链不确定性加剧，叠加达飞官宣11月涨价函，期价有所提振。但随着特朗普美方一边要谈，一边威胁恐吓加征高额 关税，出台新的限制措施，贸易战局势仍不明朗，或在长期端削弱运价水平。地缘端，以色列和巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗 运动（哈马斯）已经同意美方所提加沙地带"和平计划"的第一阶段，局势好转带动红海复航预期改善，期价支撑减 弱。欧元区近期经济数据呈现波动，各项商业景气指数弱于预期，9月制造业PMI指数表现略逊于上月，但服务业PMI 表现超出预期。此前受经济预期改善及通胀趋缓影响，欧央行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the average price of the port methanol market strengthened, while the inland methanol market declined weakly. The domestic methanol production decreased slightly, and the enterprise inventory increased. The port inventory decreased overall, but there is still a possibility of an increase in October. The olefin industry's operating rate remained high, and the MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2250 - 2340 range [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the average price of the port methanol market strengthened, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2200 - 2340 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2210 - 2310 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market declined weakly, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2083 - 2078 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2290 - 2300 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production decreased slightly due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than recoveries. The enterprise inventory increased due to weak downstream demand and low logistics enthusiasm. The port inventory decreased overall, but there is a possibility of an increase in October due to sufficient import expectations. The olefin industry's operating rate remained high and is expected to continue so in the short term [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2250 - 2340 range [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed lower, with a -1.52% decline in the main contract price [10]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of October 17, the MA 1 - 5 spread was -18 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific information on the trend of net long positions of the top 20 is provided. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 16, there were 11282 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 100 from last week [24]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of October 17, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2280 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2052.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 227.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.5 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of October 16, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 264 dollars/ton, an increase of 12 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 61 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton from last week [33]. - **Basis**: As of October 17, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of October 15, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of October 16, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.93 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.32 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41]. - **Industry**: As of October 16, China's methanol production was 1983655 tons, a decrease of 47850 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a decrease of 2.36% month - on - month. As of October 15, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 35.99 million tons, an increase of 2.05 million tons from the previous period, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 22.89 million tons, an increase of 11.37 million tons from the previous period. The total port inventory was 149.14 million tons, a decrease of 5.18 million tons from the previous data. In August 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.7598 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59.59%; from January to August, the cumulative imports were 8.2398 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.52%. As of October 16, the methanol import profit was 21.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week [46][50][55]. - **Downstream**: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 94.21%, a decrease of 0.01% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was -1065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton from last week [58][61].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 铝类市场周报 需求提振预期向好，铝类或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面供给端，氧化铝现货价格持续走弱，令电解铝冶炼利润维持较好状态，冶炼厂生产积极性偏高开工率 保持高位。此外，由于国内前期置换项目以及技改项目的投产与复产，为国内电解铝在产产能提供新增增量，国内电 解铝供给量或将小幅增长。需求端，在国内宏观提振消费预期以及传统旺季的背景下，铝类下游开工及订单逐步提振， 铝水比例提升，铝锭库存去化明显。整体来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给小幅增加、需求提振的阶段。 策略建议：沪铝主力合约轻仓逢低短多交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏弱，周涨跌幅-0.33%，报20910元/吨。氧化铝震荡偏弱，周涨跌-1.96%，报2800元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，铝土矿港口库存，受海外季节性变化影响持续回落，土矿报价保 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market rose slightly from a low level. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong increased to 1,520 - 1,580 yuan/ton, with the average price up 35 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price remained mostly in a stalemate and fluctuated according to actual demand and sentiment later [5]. - Recently, some domestic urea plants have shut down, and no shutdown plants have resumed production, leading to a significant decrease in production. Next week, it is expected that 2 enterprises' plants will plan to shut down, and 6 - 7 shutdown plants may resume production. Considering possible short - term enterprise failures, the probability of a further decrease in production is relatively high [5]. - Continuous rainfall in the north has postponed agricultural demand, reducing the flow of urea. More compound fertilizer enterprises' plants have reduced their loads and shut down. In the short term, enterprises will continue to reduce inventory, and the plant operating rate may remain at a low level [5]. - As the urea price has fallen below the previous low of the year, downstream enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices has increased, maintaining the strategy of buying on dips. Due to the weak market trading atmosphere, urea transportation has slowed down, and the inventory of urea enterprises has continued to accumulate this week. High inventory exerts great pressure on the urea market [5]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,580 - 1,630 in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market rose slightly from a low level this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong increased to 1,520 - 1,580 yuan/ton, with the average price up 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Production is likely to continue to decline. Agricultural demand is postponed, and compound fertilizer enterprises' operating rates are low. Downstream replenishment enthusiasm at low prices has increased, but high inventory pressures the market [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,580 - 1,630 in the short term [5]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of October 17, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 70 [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Warehouse Receipt Trend**: As of October 17, there were 6,294 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 723 from last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of October 16, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,560 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu it was 1,560 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of October 16, the FOB China price of urea was 385 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - **Basis Trend**: As of October 16, the urea basis was - 44 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of October 15, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of October 16, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.93 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.32 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of October 16, China's urea production was 132.05 million tons, down 6.97 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 5.01%. The capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, down 4.25% from the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [41]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 44.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.1 million tons, a growth rate of 7.47%. As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 million tons, an increase of 17.15 million tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 11.88% [44]. - **Export Situation**: In August 2025, China's urea export volume was 79.67 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.46% and a year - on - year increase of 3,024.31%. From January to August 2025, China's total urea exports were 144.11 million tons, an increase of 119.66 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 489.41% [47]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Operating Rates**: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points week - on - week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29 percentage points from last week [52].

「2025.10.10」 瑞达期货研究院 焦炭市场周报 会议预期钢材去库，焦企亏损二轮提涨 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 1. 宏观方面，特朗普重启对华贸易战，对中国输美产品加征100%关税，周初商品普遍回落；《求是》杂志评论员文章称，根据 形势变化及时实施精准有力的宏观政策，增强政策可预期性，是引导市场形成积极预期的关键；国家发改委印发《节能降碳中 央预算内投资专项管理办法》，支持钢铁等重点行业节能降碳改造；中钢协召开钢铁工业提质升级座谈会。会议指出，"十五五" 期间国内钢铁需求总体呈波动下降趋势，企业要注意产量调控是向碳排放调控的过渡期和关键期。 2. 海外方面，受特朗普威胁中国加收100%关税影响，短期资金转向美债和黄金；国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布最新一期《世界 经济展望报告》，预计2025年世界经济将增长3.2%，较7月预测上调0.2个百分点。 3. 供需方面，需求端，本期铁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic factors include Trump restarting the trade war with China, potential for precise macro - policies, support for energy - saving and carbon - reduction in the steel industry, and a predicted decline in domestic steel demand during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. Overseas, short - term funds have shifted to US bonds and gold due to Trump's tariff threats, and the IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025 [6]. - In terms of supply and demand, pre - holiday inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has slightly declined from a high level, and inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 2.1 tons, and iron water production is oscillating at a high level. Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are in the negative, and the mainstream steel procurement pricing is still under negotiation [6]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. It is expected that after October, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia will increase, and the supply pressure will rise. With the national policy of reducing crude steel production, the alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5650 - 5850 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Macro**: Trump restarts the trade war with China, adding 100% tariffs on Chinese products exported to the US, causing a general decline in commodities at the beginning of the week. The state may implement precise macro - policies, and the steel industry is supported in energy - saving and carbon - reduction. The domestic steel demand is expected to decline during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [6]. - **Overseas**: Due to Trump's tariff threats, short - term funds shift to US bonds and gold. The IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025, 0.2 percentage points higher than the July forecast [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pre - holiday inventory rebounds rapidly, production slightly declines from a high level, and inventory increases for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreases by 2.1 tons, and iron water production is at a high level. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 145 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 270 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement pricing is still under negotiation [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: After October, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will rise. With the national policy of reducing crude steel production, the alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5650 - 5850 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of October 17, the silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest is 598,000 lots, an increase of 33,000 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread is 42, an increase of 8 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipts are 48,976, a decrease of 5,359. The spread between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon January contracts is 288, a decrease of 76 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price is 5530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis is - 168 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 points [24]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The production of silicon - manganese is at a high level, with the national capacity utilization rate at 43.28%, an increase of 0.09%. The daily average production is 29,830 tons, an increase of 655 tons. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese is 121,113 tons, a decrease of 0.79%, and the weekly supply of national silicon - manganese is 208,810 tons, an increase of 2.25% [27]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the national silicon - manganese inventory is 262,500 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [32]. - **Upstream**: As of October 17, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port is 34.0 yuan/ton - degree, a slight increase. As of October 13, the electricity price in Ningxia has decreased by 0.01 yuan/kWh, and that in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore is 445.7 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons. The arrival of manganese ore from different countries shows different trends. The silicon - manganese spot profit remains in a loss state [36][41][46]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills is 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons from last week but an increase of 6.59 tons compared to last year. The final pricing of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in September is 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market was suppressed by a bearish sentiment, with rubber prices showing weak performance. The offer price of imported rubber first rose and then fell, and the trading atmosphere in the market was average. The futures market was generally weak, and the trading atmosphere in the domestic natural rubber market was rather dull. Downstream enterprises only maintained a small amount of rigid demand inquiries, and the follow - up of actual orders was insufficient [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, rainfall still affects the supply of rubber sap, but the purchase price remains stable due to the pressure on processing costs. In Hainan, the weather is good, and raw material output is increasing seasonally. The orders and profits of local processing plants have improved, and they continue to increase the purchase price of raw materials. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly decreased compared to before the holiday, with the bonded warehouse showing inventory accumulation and the general trade warehouse showing inventory reduction. In terms of demand, enterprises that had maintenance during the holiday have resumed production as planned, and the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has significantly increased. However, the overall market has not shown significant improvement, and some enterprises are still flexibly controlling production to manage inventory. It is expected that the operation of enterprise equipment will remain stable in the short term [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,450 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market was bearish this week, with rubber prices weak. Imported rubber offers rose first and then fell, market trading was average, and downstream enterprises had limited demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has less rubber sap supply due to rainfall, while Hainan has normal tapping and increasing raw material output. Qingdao Port's total inventory decreased slightly, with bonded warehouses accumulating and general trade warehouses reducing inventory. Demand has recovered, but the overall market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises are controlling production [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,500 - 15,200, and the nr2512 contract between 12,000 - 12,450 [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 4.05% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber fell by 1.09% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided in the summary about position changes. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of October 17, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 10, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was 50 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 16, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 136,630 tons, a decrease of 7,760 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 40,119 tons, a decrease of 1,210 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of October 16, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of October 16, the 20 - rubber basis was 886 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: In Thailand, as of October 17, the price of field latex was 54.1 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 50.2 (-0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of October 14, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 14.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.9 US dollars/ton from last week. In China, as of October 16, the price of Yunnan rubber sap was 13,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 13,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [40][43]. - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 520,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.1214 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [46]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 500 tons, a decrease of 0.11%. The bonded area inventory was 70,800 tons, an increase of 2.02%; the general trade inventory was 385,200 tons, a decrease of 0.49%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [50]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In August 2025, China's tire export volume was 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, China's cumulative tire export volume was 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [57]. - **Domestic Demand**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [60].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall situation of the rapeseed industry is affected by multiple factors including trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and international market trends. For rapeseed meal, it is expected to remain weakly volatile, and for rapeseed oil, it will continue the de - stocking mode, but short - term observation is needed [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9935 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2364 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed was 633 Canadian dollars/ton, up 4.4 Canadian dollars, and that of the active contract of rapeseed was 5255 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 441 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 58 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 287,961 lots, down 8681 lots; that of rapeseed meal was 354,755 lots, down 7176 lots. The net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions of rapeseed oil was 15,423 lots, up 445 lots; that of rapeseed meal was - 84,324 lots, up 2250 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil was 7590 sheets, unchanged; that for rapeseed meal was 8699 sheets, down 390 sheets [2]. 2. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,263.75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 7541.12 yuan/ton, up 42.32 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 235 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 86 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8540 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 5 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 3.73%, down 1.6% [2]. 4. Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 6 million tons, down 1.67 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, down 1.53 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 50.9 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 27.9 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 2.8 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 22.5 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.22 million tons, down 2.96 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.09 million tons, down 1.32 million tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2927.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 450.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly value of social consumer goods retail sales in the catering industry was 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 6. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.57%, up 0.32%; that of at - the - money put options was 20.56%, up 0.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.23%, up 0.01%; that of at - the - money put options was 14.23%, up 0.01% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 23.6%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 25.05%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.39%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.91%, up 0.02% [2]. 7. Industry News - On October 15th, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by technical buying and the strong trend of the US soybean oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures rose 4.80 Canadian dollars to settle at 620.40 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January futures rose 4.20 Canadian dollars to settle at 634.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - In the US, the harvest in the Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts the market price. The US government shutdown leads to a lack of data and market caution [2]. 8. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Internationally, the US soybean export pressure remains due to the lack of progress in Sino - US trade relations. The high - yield of Canadian rapeseed is basically realized, which puts pressure on its price. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal is expected to remain weakly volatile [2]. 9. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Internationally, Indonesia's plan to increase biodiesel to B50 next year is positive for the palm oil market, but Malaysia's palm oil inventory has increased for seven consecutive months. Domestically, the initial ruling on anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is out, and the import of rapeseed is expected to be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, but the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil. The short - term trend needs to be observed [2]. 10. Key Points of Attention - Monitor the rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory data from myagricultural.com on Mondays, as well as the Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2].

Report Summary - Industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: SH2601 showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend, closing at 2438 yuan/ton. During the holiday, the operating loads of plants in North and Northwest China decreased, leading to a narrow decline in caustic soda capacity utilization. Alumina profit continued to shrink, but the device operation was relatively stable with little change in capacity utilization. Last week, the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing changed slightly. During the holiday, some downstream industries took holidays and stopped work, resulting in a significant accumulation of liquid caustic soda factory inventories and high inventory pressure. This week, there are maintenance expectations for plants in North and East China, which may partially relieve the industry's supply pressure. Downstream alumina enterprises have no large - scale production reduction plans, and the short - term caustic soda consumption demand is not expected to shrink significantly. Non - aluminum downstream lacks signals of demand improvement and is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. After the holiday, as some non - aluminum industries resume work, the inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories may be relieved. New alumina plants will be put into operation from the fourth quarter of this year to early next year, giving an improvement expectation for the far - end supply and demand. However, the high number of warehouse receipts still suppresses the futures price. The market digested the impact of the Sino - US trade dispute, and industrial products opened lower and moved higher with mixed gains and losses on the day. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to fluctuate. Technically, pay attention to the low - level support around 2404 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average around 2491 [3] Data Summary Futures market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main contract position was 111822 lots, up 812 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 1846 lots, up 2686 lots; the main contract trading volume was 256622 lots, down 72390 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2539 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] Spot market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 156 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3] Upstream situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest China was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Downstream situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2865 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] Industry News Summary - From October 3rd to 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% [3] - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 86.32%; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.19% to 89.63%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.47% to 66.63% [3] - As of October 9th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample factories with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56% [3] - From October 9th to 11th, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 341 yuan/ton [3]