1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fat pig supply is tight, and short - term supply pressure eases, but second - round fattening entry is becoming more cautious. On the demand side, it is currently the peak demand season, but after the New Year's Day stocking ended, demand declined from the small peak. Terminal consumption has limited acceptance of price increases, and southern demand has decreased significantly, with prices performing weaker than in the north. Overall, short - term supply tightening supports pig prices, but as prices rise and New Year's Day stocking ends, the support from second - round fattening and the demand side weakens, and the risk of price decline accumulates. On the futures market, the live hog 2603 contract opened lower and closed lower, falling 0.98% and showing an adjustment trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live hogs is 11,660 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 172,106 lots, up 962 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 918 lots, down 95 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 49,749 lots, up 1,849 lots; the main basis for live hogs is 940 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of live hogs in Henan Zhumadian is 12,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 1,1800 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 12,900 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Live hog inventory is 43,6800,000 heads, up 1,2330,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 3,9900,000 heads, down 450,000 heads; CPI year - on - year is 0.7%, up 0.5 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,356.47 yuan/ton, up 0.39 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 892.01, down 0.16; the monthly output of feed is 29,779,000 tons, up 209,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,429 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 48.35 yuan/head, up 114.45 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs is - 34.59 yuan/head, up 95.52 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 60,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,9570,000 heads, up 1230,000 heads; the monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales is 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2] 3.5 Industry News - Mysteel data shows that on January 5th, the daily slaughter volume of live hogs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 150,806 heads, a 1.12% decrease from the previous day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No provided information. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the freight index (European line) futures prices rose collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed up 1.48%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1795.83, up 53.19 points from last week, a 3.1% increase, driving the futures prices up [1]. - In December, China's manufacturing PMI data slightly recovered, in line with seasonal patterns. The new export orders index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand boosted by Christmas [1]. - Spot freight rates showed a slow - rising trend in January. The early - January quote increased by $400 compared to December, and the late - January preliminary quote for large containers ranged from $2700 - $3100. The rate adjustment progress of other shipping companies needs further follow - up [1]. - Geopolitically, after a brief cease - fire at the end of 2025, the Israeli army restarted a large - scale ground offensive in southern Gaza in early 2026, causing the Red Sea resumption expectation to turn cold and further supporting freight rates [1]. - The euro - zone economy continued to recover. With large - scale fiscal stimulus, Germany's service industry continued to strongly recover, and the comprehensive PMI stably ran above 50. The inflation sub - item continued to decline, which was conducive to the euro - zone economy maintaining its relative strength since the third quarter [1]. - Overall, the improvement of the trade - war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are beneficial for the futures price recovery. The geopolitical situation is in a stalemate, and its short - term impact on freight rates is weakened. The current freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Futures Market Data | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | EC Main Closing Price | 1855.500 | - | | EC Second - Main Closing Price | 1198 | +30.80↑ | | EC2602 - EC2604 Spread | 657.50 | - | | EC2602 - EC2606 Spread | 466.50 | +33.10↑ | | EC Contract Basis | -112.86 | +99.24↑ | | EC Main Position Volume (lots) | 26046 | 1916↑ | [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS (European Line) (Weekly) | 1795.83 | +53.19↑ | | SCFIS (US West Line) (Weekly) | 1250.12 | -51.29↓ | | SCFI (Composite Index) (Weekly) | 1656.32 | 0.00↑ | | CCFI (Composite Index) (Weekly) | 1146.67 | +21.94↑ | | CCFI (European Line) (Weekly) | 1519.06 | +45.16↑ | | Baltic Dry Bulk Index (Daily) | 1877.00 | +5.00↑ | | Panama - Type Freight Index (Daily) | 1267.00 | +15.00↑ | | Average Charter Price (Panama - Type Ship) | 0.00 | 0.00↑ | | Average Charter Price (Cape - Type Ship) | 22415.00 | +295.00↑ | [1] 3.3 Industry News - The US "raided" Venezuela, and Venezuelan President Maduro may appear in a federal court in New York on January 5. The global crude oil market has shown signs of digesting the shock as Venezuela's key oil facilities were not damaged and its oil production accounts for less than 1% of the global supply [1]. - During the New Year's Day holiday this year, Haikou Customs supervised the sales of 442,000 pieces of Hainan duty - free goods, a 52.4% year - on - year increase; the number of shoppers was 83,500 person - times, a 60.6% year - on - year increase; and the shopping amount was 712 million yuan, a 128.9% year - on - year increase [1]. - India's Ministry of Finance's Tax Bureau decided to impose a 6 - month temporary anti - dumping duty on low - ash metallurgical coke imported from China, Australia, Colombia, Indonesia, Japan, and Russia [1]. 3.4 Key Data to Focus On - Germany's December CPI monthly rate preliminary value at 21:00 on January 6. - The US December S&P Global Services PMI final value at 22:45 on January 6. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. The collective rebound of the three official PMI indices in December implies economic recovery signs. The National Fiscal Work Conference held from December 27 - 28, 2025, especially the arrangement for trade - in programs, boosts market sentiment, creating a warm overall macro - atmosphere and strong bottom support for A - shares. The market's expectation of a dovish stance from the new Federal Reserve Chairman weakens the US dollar, and the strengthening of the offshore RMB during the New Year holiday supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January. Due to the relatively late Spring Festival this year, the A - share spring market may be advanced [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - IF主力合约（2603）最新4697.0，环比+103.8↑；IF次主力合约（2601）最新4714.0，环比+95.6↑。IH主力合约（2603）3098.8，环比+77.2↑；IH次主力合约（2601）3097.4，环比+73.2↑。IC主力合约（2603）7596.0，环比+229.4↑；IC次主力合约（2601）7664.8，环比+209.6↑。IM主力合约（2603）7639.0，环比+200.0↑；IM次主力合约（2601）7759.2，环比+179.6↑ [2]。 3.2 Futures Spread and Seasonal Spread - IF - IH当月合约价差1616.6，环比+20.4↑；IC - IF当月合约价差2950.8，环比+117.4↑；IM - IC当月合约价差94.4，环比 - 31.4↓；IC - IH当月合约价差4567.4，环比+137.8↑；IM - IF当月合约价差3045.2，环比+86.0↑；IM - IH当月合约价差4661.8，环比+106.4↑。IF当季 - 当月 - 17.0，环比+5.4↑；IF下季 - 当月 - 64.2，环比+3.0↑；IH当季 - 当月1.4，环比+2.4↑；IH下季 - 当月 - 8.6，环比+1.0↑；IC当季 - 当月 - 68.8，环比+24.0↑；IC下季 - 当月 - 247.8，环比+32.4↑；IM当季 - 当月 - 120.2，环比+25.0↑；IM下季 - 当月 - 355.8，环比+27.6↑ [2]。 3.3 Futures Net Positions of Top 20 - IF前20名净持仓 - 30,761.00，环比+158.0↑；IH前20名净持仓 - 13,999.00，环比+454.0↑；IC前20名净持仓 - 29,174.00，环比+1274.0↑；IM前20名净持仓 - 49,284.00，环比+7072.0↑ [2]。 3.4 Spot Prices and Basis - 沪深300为4717.75，环比+87.8↑，IF主力合约基差 - 20.8，环比+9.4↑；上证50为3,099.8，环比+68.6↑，IH主力合约基差 - 0.9，环比+5.2↑；中证500为7,651.2，环比+185.6↑，IC主力合约基差 - 55.2，环比+47.6↑；中证1000为7,753.9，环比+158.6↑，IM主力合约基差 - 114.9，环比+44.2↑ [2]。 3.5 Market Sentiment - A股成交额（日，亿元）25,672.40，环比+5014.52↑；两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）25,406.82，环比 - 146.01↓；北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）2223.14，环比 - 157.04↓；逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元） - 4823.0，环比+135.0；主力资金（昨日，今日，亿元） - 397.51，环比+40.78；上涨股票比例（日，%）76.57，环比+31.32↑；Shibor（日，%）1.264，环比+0.006↑；IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2601）57.20，环比+29.20↑；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率（%）13.48，环比 - 1.95↓；IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2601）41.20，环比 - 60.60↓；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率（%）13.48，环比 - 1.54↓；沪深300指数20日波动率（%）12.80，环比+1.58↑；成交量PCR（%）59.96，环比+3.16↑；持仓量PCR（%）79.75，环比+7.42↑；Wind市场强弱分析中全部A股7.70，环比+3.10↑，技术面7.70，环比+3.20↑，资金面7.80，环比+3.20↑ [2]。 3.6 Industry News - A股主要指数收盘集体大幅上涨,上证指数重回4000点,沪深两市成交额大幅回升,全市场近4200只个股上涨,行业板块普遍上涨,传媒、医药生物等板块大幅走强,石油石化板块领跌。海外方面,特朗普预计1月宣布下一任美联储主席人选,此前表示希望新任美联储主席在市场表现良好时降低利率。国内方面,12月三大官方PMI指数均由荣枯线下方回升至扩张区间,12月27 - 28日全国财政工作会议指出2026年继续实施积极财政政策并安排资金支持消费品以旧换新 [2]。 3.7 Key Points to Watch - 1/5 23:00美国12月ISM制造业PMI；1/7 21:15美国12月ADP就业人数，23:00美国11月JOLTs职位空缺；1/8 20:30美国12月挑战者企业裁员人数；1/9 9:30中国12月CPI、PPI；1/9 21:30美国12月非农就业人口、失业率、劳动参与率 [3]。

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will undergo a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support at 31, and there is pressure at 33.5 above [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin pulled back from a high level, with a weekly gain or loss of - 4.62% and an amplitude of 9.82%. As of the close of this week, the main contract was quoted at 322,920 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: According to the minutes of the Fed meeting, "most" officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, while some advocate "holding steady for some time". The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones has been issued in advance [4]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply side**: The import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. At the smelting end, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, and the raw material inventories of most enterprises are still low. For most enterprises, it is in a loss - making situation, and it is expected that the output of refined tin will continue to be restricted, still lacking year - on - year increments. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about restricted supply in Indonesia. Recently, the import loss has been repaired. If the window opens later, the import supply pressure will increase significantly [4]. - **Demand side**: Recently, the price of tin has pulled back from a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot premium has remained at 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has fluctuated [4]. - **Technical - level**: Trading volume has increased while positions have decreased, the long - buying sentiment has declined, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Price**: This week, the futures price fell, and the spot premium remained stable. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 327,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13,110 yuan/ton or 3.85% compared with December 24. As of December 30, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 42,195 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1,032 US dollars/ton or 2.39% compared with December 22 [6][9]. - **Ratio**: As of December 31, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin - to - nickel price was 2.45, an increase of 0.23 compared with December 24. As of December 29, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.34, an increase of 0.32 compared with December 23 [13]. - **Position**: As of December 31, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 87,788 lots, a decrease of 20,845 lots or 19.19% compared with December 24. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was - 6,558 lots, a decrease of 5,187 lots compared with December 22, 2025 [18]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply side**: - **Tin ore import and refined tin production**: In November 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the refined tin output was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative refined tin output was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.25% [24][25]. - **Tin ore processing fee**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025 [30]. - **Refined tin import**: As of December 30, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 7,431.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,624.44 yuan/ton compared with December 24, 2025. In November 2025, the refined tin import volume was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin import was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin export was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36]. - **Inventory**: As of December 30, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 5,330 tons, an increase of 685 tons or 14.75% compared with December 19. As of December 31, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,936 tons, a decrease of 541 tons or 6.38% compared with last week. As of December 31, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 7,442 tons, a decrease of 889 tons or 10.67% compared with December 24 [39]. - **Demand side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 30, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,169.1, an increase of 23.53 or 0.33% compared with December 22. From January to November 2025, the integrated circuit output was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42][43]. - **Domestic tin - plated sheet export**: As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% compared with October 2025. As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet export volume was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% compared with October [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will undergo a strong - side adjustment in the short - term, with attention on the support of MA5 and testing the previous high resistance level of 136,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Stainless steel futures prices are expected to have a strong - side adjustment, and attention should be paid to the upper range of 13,200 - 13,600 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Shanghai Nickel - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel continued to rise, with a weekly gain of +4.81% and an amplitude of 8.99%. As of this week's close, the main contract was quoted at 132,850 yuan/ton [7]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed meeting minutes showed that "most" officials expected it to be suitable to continue cutting interest rates after December, and some advocated staying put for "some time". In 2026, the plan for the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones has been advanced [7]. - Fundamentally, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is expected to decline. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year, causing market concerns about the tightening of raw material supply. In the smelting sector, Indonesia's nickel - iron production remains high, and the volume flowing back to China is expected to increase. Multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia have been put into operation one after another. Although the shortage of intermediate - product raw materials and profit losses have led to some production cuts, the production volume is still at a high level, and cost support has increased. In terms of demand, the price of nickel - iron, the raw material for stainless steel, has fallen, and steel mill profits have improved, with expected high production volume. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [7]. - Domestically, nickel inventories continue to accumulate. The market mainly makes purchases during price pull - backs, and the spot premium is at a high level. Overseas LME inventory growth has slowed down. Technically, trading volume has increased and positions have been added, with a strong bullish sentiment [7]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - This week, stainless steel continued to rise, with a weekly gain of +1.31% and an amplitude of 2.78%. As of this week's close, the main contract was quoted at 13,125 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of raw materials, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing, causing the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants to tighten. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year. Under the situation of shrinking raw material supply, nickel - iron production will face production - cut pressure. In terms of supply, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and supply pressure still exists. In terms of demand, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is showing a downward trend. The impact of previous export squeezes has begun to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. However, the market's arrivals are also limited, so the national social inventory of stainless steel maintains a seasonal slight decline. Technically, positions have increased and prices have risen, with a growing bullish sentiment [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Price Changes - As of December 31, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 132,850 yuan/ton, up 4,850 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week [13]. - As of December 31, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 915 yuan/nickel, up 15 yuan/nickel from last week [13]. 3.2.2 Basis Changes - As of December 31, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 137,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,700 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 425 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.3 Ratio Changes - As of December 31, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the SHFE was 10.12, up 0.33 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel on the SHFE was 2.43 yuan/ton, down 0.24 from last week [26]. 3.2.4 Net Long Position Changes - As of December 31, 2025, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 54,386 lots, a decrease of 1,322 lots from December 25, 2025. - As of December 31, 2025, the net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 14,200 lots, an increase of 2,118 lots from December 25, 2025 [32]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Nickel Ore Port Inventory and Electrolytic Nickel Production Profit**: As of December 26, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 13.7647 million tons, a decrease of 626,700 tons from last week. As of December 31, the production profit of electrolytic nickel was 18,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,250 yuan/ton from last week [38][39]. - **Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Import Volume**: In September 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In November 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 12,840.486 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.18%. From January to November, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 209,244.351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 157.2% [44]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of January 2, the SHFE nickel inventory was 45,544 tons, an increase of 1,090 tons from last week. As of December 31, the LME nickel inventory was 255,186 tons, an increase of 426 tons from last week [51][52]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export**: In November 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.4931 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. Among them, the production of the 400 series was 689,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.49%; the production of the 300 series was 1.7617 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.13%; the production of the 200 series was 1.042 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. In November 2025, the stainless steel import volume was 109,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons; the export volume was 333,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,700 tons. From January, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.4695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 223,900 tons [56]. - **Inventory in Foshan and Wuxi**: As of December 26, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 264,500 tons, a decrease of 21,646 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 544,038 tons, a decrease of 9,489 tons from last week [61]. - **Stainless Steel Production Profit**: As of December 31, the stainless steel production profit was 11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 206 yuan/ton from last week [66]. - **Real Estate and Home Appliance Industries**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; real estate development investment was 785.909 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.64%; the household refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.67%; the household washing machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.96%; the freezer production was 2.619 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.17% [70]. - **Automobile and Machinery Industries**: In November 2025, China's new - energy vehicle production was 3.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%; sales were 3.429 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%. In November 2025, the excavator production was 33,623 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; the medium - and large - sized tractor production was 22,592 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.11%; the small - sized tractor production was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the pure benzene futures fluctuated in the range of 5450 - 5630. As of December 31, BZ2603 closed at 5463 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from last week's closing price. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5345 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -118 yuan/ton [6]. - On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.05% to 74.89% month-on-month, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased by 2.94% to 59.83% month-on-month. The domestic pure benzene output increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream pure benzene generally increased last week. The weighted operating rate of downstream pure benzene increased by 2.59% to 71.07% month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased by 9.89% to 300,000 tons this week, maintaining a high-level upward trend. In terms of profit, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton last week, maintaining a recovery trend [6]. - In January, two sets of equipment of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be under maintenance, and equipment such as Funeng Jiahua, Yunnan Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical will be restarted one after another. A new device of Guangdong BASF is planned to be put into production, and the domestic pure benzene output is expected to increase slightly. The load of large - scale downstream styrene equipment is stable, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable; a small amount of equipment for caprolactam will resume, and the overall operating rate is expected to change little; some maintenance equipment for phenol, aniline, and adipic acid is planned to be restarted. In terms of cost, there are no signs of deterioration in the short - term geopolitical situation, and the supply pressure of international crude oil in the real - world remains. International oil prices are expected to be more likely to fall than to rise. The supply and demand of pure benzene will both increase, and the cost - side support is relatively limited. The price will show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, BZ2603 should pay attention to the support around 5360 and the pressure around 5570 [6]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: This week, the pure benzene futures fluctuated in the range of 5450 - 5630. As of December 31, BZ2603 closed at 5463 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from last week's closing price. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5345 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -118 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side: last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.05% to 74.89% month - on - month, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased by 2.94% to 59.83% month - on - month, with domestic pure benzene output rising slightly. Demand - side: the operating rates of downstream pure benzene generally increased last week. The weighted operating rate of downstream pure benzene increased by 2.59% to 71.07% month - on - month. Inventory: the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased by 9.89% to 300,000 tons this week, maintaining a high - level upward trend. Profit: the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton last week, maintaining a recovery trend [6]. - **Outlook**: In January, domestic pure benzene output is expected to increase slightly. The operating rate of downstream products is expected to remain stable or change little. International oil prices are expected to be more likely to fall than to rise. The supply and demand of pure benzene will both increase, and the cost - side support is relatively limited. The price will show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, BZ2603 should pay attention to the support around 5360 and the pressure around 5570 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the pure benzene futures fluctuated in the range, and the spot price in East China rose slightly, reaching 5345 yuan/ton on December 31 [8]. - On December 30, the market price of petroleum benzene in North China was 5170 yuan/ton, and in South China was 5300 yuan/ton [15]. - On December 30, the market price of petroleum benzene in Northeast China was 5210 yuan/ton, and the market price of hydrobenzene in Shanxi was 5040 yuan/ton [20]. - On December 29, the FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea was 664 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price of pure benzene in China was 672 US dollars/ton [25]. 3. Industry Situation - Last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased month - on - month, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased month - on - month [30]. - In November, 459,600 tons of pure benzene were imported. This week, the import profit fluctuated slightly, and the import window was semi - open [36]. - This week, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was relatively high [42]. - This week, the production cost of petroleum benzene decreased, and the profit recovered. Last week, the production cost of hydrobenzene decreased month - on - month, and the profit recovered [45][50]. - The operating rate of styrene increased month - on - month, and the non - integrated profit increased. The operating rate of caprolactam increased, and the profit decreased. The operating rate of the phenol industry was 78.15%. The operating rate of the aniline industry was 62.98%. The operating rate of the adipic acid industry was 63.6% [55][60][63]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the pure benzene main contract was reported at 11.57%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 19.2% [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures will undergo a bullish adjustment, suggesting attention to the support level at 23000 yuan/ton, with potential upside targets between 23600 - 24000 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of 0.45% and an amplitude of 2.03%. The closing price of the main contract was 23275 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, most Fed officials expect further rate cuts after December, and 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for consumer goods replacement have been pre - allocated. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have declined, domestic smelters' winter raw material reserves have started, and processing fees have dropped, squeezing smelter profits and potentially reducing production. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, but there are some bright spots in the automotive sector. Domestic inventories continue to decline while LME inventory accumulation is slowing [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc futures was 23275 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (0.19%) from December 24. As of December 30, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3130 US dollars/ton, up 57.5 US dollars/ton (1.87%) from December 22 [9] - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of December 31, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc futures was 5416 lots, a decrease of 3131 lots from December 24. The open interest was 195442 lots, a decrease of 6438 lots (3.19%) from December 24 [11] - **Price Spreads**: As of December 31, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 550 yuan/ton from December 24. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton from December 24 [16] - **Spot Premiums**: As of December 31, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 23360 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.3%) from December 24. The spot premium was 115 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 30, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was - 32.22 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.61 US dollars/ton from December 19 [22] - **Inventory Changes**: As of December 30, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 106325 tons, an increase of 6425 tons (6.43%) from December 19. As of December 31, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 69793 tons, a decrease of 3170 tons (4.34%) from last week. As of December 29, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 105500 tons, a decrease of 13700 tons (11.49%) from December 22 [25] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In October 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import of zinc ore concentrates was 519018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [31] - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: In October 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.2187 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 108400 tons (9.76%); the consumption was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44200 tons (3.76%); the supply gap was 600 tons, compared with a gap of 64800 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed a supply - demand balance of - 35700 tons in September 2024 [36][37] - **Supply - Refined Zinc Output**: In November 2025, the domestic zinc output was 654000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to November, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [40] - **Supply - Refined Zinc Exports**: In November 2025, the import of refined zinc was 18229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%; the export was 42815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [43] - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets of major domestic enterprises was 942600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. In November 2025, the import of galvanized sheets was 36700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%; the export was 317900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [46][47] - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 851.4519 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%, among which personal mortgage loans were 117.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [52][53] - **Downstream - Infrastructure Investment**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year. In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 from last month and 0.61 from the same period last year [58][59] - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to November, the cumulative refrigerator output was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The air - conditioner output in November was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [61] - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In November 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3428998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the output was 3531579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [66]

期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 铁矿石市场周报 库存增加&现货坚挺 铁矿期价重心上移 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 「周度要点小结1」 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 行情回顾 1. 价格：截至12月31日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为789.5（+6.5）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉849（+12）元/干吨。 2. 发运：全球铁矿石发运总量环比+212.6万吨。2025年12月22日-12月28日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量3677.1万吨，环比增加 212.6万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量3059.6万吨，环比增加244.8万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量-62.4万吨。2025年12月22日-12月28日中国47港到港总量2727.8万吨，环比减少62.4万吨；中国45港到 港总量2601.4万吨，环比减少45.3万吨；北方六港到港总量1330.6万吨，环比增加74.2万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot - rolled coil market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors. The HC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3300 - 3230. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market volatility has narrowed. Attention should be paid to market changes and risk control [8] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Week - on - Week Summary 1.1 Price - As of the close on December 31, the futures price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3270 yuan/ton (-13 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [6] 1.2 Production - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 293.54 million tons (+1.63 million tons week - on - week, -13.6 million tons year - on - year) [6] 1.3 Demand - Apparent demand increased. The current period's apparent demand was 307.04 million tons (+8.76 million tons week - on - week, +4.32 million tons year - on - year) [6] 1.4 Inventory - Both factory and social inventories decreased. The total inventory was 377.22 million tons (-13.5 million tons week - on - week, +70.14 million tons year - on - year) [6] 1.5 Profit Margin - The steel mill profit margin was 37.23%, an increase of 1.30 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 12.55 percentage points from the same period last year [6] 1.6 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the Fed's December meeting minutes showed a split among officials on interest rate cuts. Domestically, in December, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all entered the expansion range. In 2026, the national subsidy plan was officially released, and the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds was allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods [8] - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore ports showed a trend of inventory accumulation, and steel mills' inventories were relatively low, with expectations of stockpiling in the later period, supporting the futures price. Coking coal inventory continued to increase, but the inventory growth rate might decline. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the coal - coke futures price was expected to fluctuate within a range and be slightly bullish [8] - **Technical - aspect**: The HC2605 contract was range - bound, with the futures price under pressure at the 3300 mark. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running near the 0 axis, and the red bars were relatively stable [8] 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - This week, the HC2605 contract was range - bound and weaker than the HC2610 contract. On the 31st, the price difference was -23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [14] 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Long Positions - On December 31, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged at 132,188 tons week - on - week. The net long position of the top 20 holders of the hot - rolled coil futures contract decreased by 18,204 lots to 12,880 lots [20] 2.3 Spot Price - On December 31, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3291 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was weaker than the futures price. On the 31st, the basis was 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton [24] 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Raw Material Prices - On December 31, the price of 61% Australian MacPhearson iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 849 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1610 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [30] 3.2 Ore Arrival and Shipment - From December 22 - 28, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3677.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 212.6 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 3059.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 244.8 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2727.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2601.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.3 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1330.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 74.2 million tons [36] 3.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 16619.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 394.43 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 328.76 million tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore increased by 282.65 million tons to 7174.26 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased by 93.50 million tons to 6118.56 million tons; the inventory of traded ore increased by 304.95 million tons to 10781.61 million tons. On December 25, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 118.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.88 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 39.44 million tons [40] 3.4 Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 70.35%, a decrease of 0.15%. The daily coke output was 49.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons; the coke inventory was 50.14 million tons, a decrease of 1.76 million tons; the total coking coal inventory was 883.20 million tons, an increase of 1.83 million tons; the available days of coking coal were 13.5 days, an increase of 0.06 days [44] 4. Industry Situation 4.1 Supply - side - **Steel Export**: In November 2025, China's steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 198,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative steel exports were 107.717 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [48] - **Hot - rolled Coil Production**: On December 26, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 million tons. On December 25, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils from 37 production enterprises was 2.9354 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 163,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.36 million tons [51] - **Hot - rolled Coil Inventory**: On December 25, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils from 37 production enterprises was 0.8052 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18,000 tons. The social inventory in 33 major cities was 2.967 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.6996 million tons. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.7722 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 135,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.7014 million tons [56] 4.2 Demand - side - **Automobile**: In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. From January to November, automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4% [59] - **Home Appliances**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; the production of household refrigerators was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%; the production of household washing machines was 113.097 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [59]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 螺纹钢市场周报 现货成交清淡 螺纹期价区间波动 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 「 周度要点小结2」 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至12月31日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3122（+4），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3330（+20）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量上调。184.39（+2.71），同比（-31.91）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需202.68（-5.96），（同比-16.9）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增，社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存434.25（-18.29），（同比+34.51）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率37.23%，环比上周增加1.30个百分点，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储公布的12月会议纪要显示，F ...