瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.19」 苹果市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周苹果期货2601合约价格微跌，周度跌幅0.67%。 行情展望：新季苹果，山东红将军受质量影响，成交价格区间大，差货价格优势 相对明显。西部早熟富士交易陆续尾声，采青富士等待上色，少量客商开始订货， 价格高于去年同期。双节备货陆续推进，晚富士摘袋较为零星，西部降雨或推迟 晚富士大面积摘袋时间。库存果，据Mysteel统计，截至2025年9月17日，全国主 产区苹果冷库库存量为16.32万吨，较上周减少4.59万吨，受到中熟品种交易冲击， 山东产区库存走货速度减缓。山东产区库容比为3.51%，较上周减少0.82%，山东 产区去库速度放缓，当地小客商倾向于选择价格较低的红将军。库内好货价格相 对稳定，果农货价格偏弱。不过市场对晚熟富士开秤价格预期偏高，下方有一定 支撑。 2 策略建议：操作上，建议苹果2601合约短期多思路为主。 未来交易提示： 1、中熟富士上市量 2、消费 目录 关 注 微信服 务 号 添加客服 业务咨询 1、周度要点小结 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, it's recommended to take a bullish approach and monitor China - Canada trade relations. This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher in a volatile manner. Although Canada's rapeseed harvest is expected to be a bumper one, there are uncertainties in China - Canada trade policies. Domestically, the开机率 of oil mills is low, and the supply of rapeseed in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight [7][8]. - For rapeseed meal, it's advised to trade in the short - term and pay attention to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. This week, rapeseed meal futures slightly declined in a volatile way. The USDA report is bearish, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting rapeseed meal supply and demand [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate with a bullish bias and focus on China - Canada trade [7]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher in a volatile way, with the 01 - contract closing at 10,068 yuan/ton, up 211 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Outlook: Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 20 million tons, the highest since 2018. However, the Canadian government may adjust policies to avoid Chinese import tariffs on rapeseed. In the US, the bio - diesel policy is unclear, and domestic consumption support is limited. But for rapeseed oil itself, the oil mill's开机率 is low, and the supply of rapeseed in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Trade in the short - term and focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations [10]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures slightly declined in a volatile way, with the 01 - contract closing at 2,522 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [11]. - Outlook: The USDA report is bearish. Domestically, the supply of rapeseed in the near - term is low, and the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is seasonally increasing. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal and the expected increase in domestic soybean imports suppress the rapeseed meal market [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher with a total position of 352,429 lots, up 61,295 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures slightly declined with a total position of 381,171 lots, down 21,729 lots from the previous week [16]. - Top 20 Net Positions: This week, the top 20 net long position of rapeseed oil futures increased, and the top 20 net short position of rapeseed meal futures increased [22]. - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 8,202 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 9,248 lots [26][27]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,320 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, with a basis of + 252 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,550 yuan/ton, with little change from last week, and the basis is + 28 yuan/ton [36][42]. - Futures Monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is + 500 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is + 135 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [47]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal in the 01 - contract is 3.99, and the average spot price ratio is 3.94 [50]. - Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals: The 01 - contract spread of rapeseed oil - soybean oil is 1,740 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil - palm oil is 752 yuan/ton, both widening this week. The 01 - contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal is 492 yuan/ton, and the spot spread is 380 yuan/ton [59][65]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply - Inventory and Import Forecast: As of September 12, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 100,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in September, October, and November 2025 are 195,000, 150,000, and 450,000 tons respectively [71]. - Supply - Import and Pressing Profit: As of September 18, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed is + 1,244 yuan/ton [75]. - Supply - Oil Mill Pressing Volume: As of the 37th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills is 61,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from last week, with an开机率 of 14.92% [79]. - Supply - Monthly Import Volume: In July 2025, China's rapeseed import volume is 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [83]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply - Inventory and Import Volume: As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil is 683,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%. In August 2025, the import volume of rapeseed oil is 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.67% and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [87]. - Demand - Consumption and Production: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4.769 million tons. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly catering revenue is 449.57 billion yuan [91]. - Demand - Weekly Contract Volume: As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume is 81,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.45% [95]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply - Weekly Inventory: As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal is 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.89% [99]. - Supply - Import Volume: In July 2025, China's rapeseed meal import volume is 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [103]. - Demand - Feed Monthly Production: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly feed production is 2.8273 million tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of September 19, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 22.49%, up 1.1% from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [110].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.9.19」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格下跌，主力合约EC2510收跌11.10%，远月合约收涨1-5%不等。最新SCFIS欧线结 算运价指数为1440.24，较上周回落126.22点，环比下行8.1%，现货指标持续回落且降幅走阔，期价支撑进一步削弱。 10月1日，马士基上海离港前往鹿特丹的船期，20GP开舱报价为$882，较前一周开舱报价下降$99，40GP开舱报价为 $1470，较前一周开舱报价下降$157。Gemini联盟报价均值降至1920美元/FEU13，进一步引发了其他联盟的跟进，形 成了"降价负循环"，而"价格战"的开启使得基本面持续承压。美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至 4.00%-4.25%，为年内首次降息，也是时隔9个月后重启降息。FOMC声明指出，就业方面的下行风险已上升，今年上半 年经济增长有所放缓，通胀有所上升。FOMC声明后，美国利率期货预期美联储在10月降息可能性超90%。欧洲央行连 续第二次维持利率按兵不动，表示通胀压力已得到明显缓解，且欧元区经济保持稳健态势，降息周期接近尾声。随着 外部贸易环境压力缓解，欧元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the precious metals market may remain under pressure and experience a corrective trend. The market may enter an oscillatory range as there is a lack of further bullish catalysts, and the interpretation of Powell's speech is "cautiously dovish", deviating from market expectations. In the long - term, if the September economic data continues to be weak, the market may raise the expectation of interest rate cuts this year again, and gold and silver prices are expected to break through previous highs. The U.S. government's long - standing debt credit problem also strongly supports the monetary attribute of gold. The recommended strategy is to try short positions lightly at high prices and focus on range - bound trading [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: At the beginning of the week, the precious metals market continued to rise strongly driven by the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts. Before the FOMC meeting, gold and silver futures prices reached new historical highs. After the interest rate cut was realized, the market selling pressure increased significantly, and long - position funds flowed out. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The risk - balance wording in the policy statement changed significantly, and it first clearly admitted the economic slowdown, employment slowdown, a slight rise in the unemployment rate, and persistent high inflation in the first half of the year. The latest SEP shows a slight downward shift in the policy path compared to the June forecast. The median forecast of the federal funds rate at the end of 2025 is 3.6%, implying a further 50 - 75 basis points of easing space this year. The inflation and labor market forecasts were also readjusted. The initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week had the largest single - week decline in nearly four years, but the continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating structural problems in the labor market. U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and real retail sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the precious metals market may be under pressure and correct. The follow - up market trend depends on the August PCE data and the tone of the Fed officials' subsequent speeches. In the long - term, if the September economic data is weak, the expectation of interest rate cuts may rise again, and gold and silver prices may break through previous highs. The recommended strategy is to try short positions lightly at high prices and focus on range - bound trading. The recommended range for the main SHFE gold 2512 contract is 800 - 850 yuan/gram, and for the main SHFE silver 2512 contract is 9800 - 10100 yuan/kg [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of September 19, 2025, COMEX silver was at $42.29 per ounce, down 1.10% from last week; the main SHFE silver 2512 contract was at 9971 yuan/kg, up 0.41% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at $3679.40 per ounce, basically unchanged from last week; the main SHFE gold 2512 contract was at 830.56 yuan/gram [11] - **ETF Holdings**: As of September 18, 2025, the net holdings of the SPDR gold ETF decreased by 0.23% month - on - month, while the net holdings of the SLV silver ETF increased by 0.90% month - on - month [16] - **Speculative Net Positions**: As of September 9, 2025, the total and net positions of COMEX gold increased by 3.39% and 4.89% respectively month - on - month, while the total and net positions of COMEX silver decreased by 1.05% and 3.55% respectively month - on - month [21] - **Basis Changes**: As of September 19, 2025, the gold basis was 0.43 yuan/gram, and the silver basis was - 24 yuan/kg [25] - **Inventory Trends**: As of September 18, 2025, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 22.19% month - on - month. COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.80% month - on - month, while SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.50% month - on - month [31] 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - **Import Volume**: As of July 2025, China's silver import volume decreased by 7.46% month - on - month, while the import volume of silver ore sand increased by 22.32% month - on - month [35] - **Downstream Demand**: As of August 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4.25 million pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.20%, driven by the increasing demand for silver in the semiconductor industry [41] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver increased by 4% year - on - year, the demand for coins and net bars decreased by 22% year - on - year, and the net investment demand for silver ETFs increased from - 37.6 million ounces to 61.6 million ounces. The total demand for silver decreased by 3% year - on - year. The total supply of silver increased by 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap decreased by 26% month - on - month [47][51] 3.3.2 Gold Industry - **Price Fluctuations**: As of September 19, 2025, the gold recycling price in China decreased by 0.27% month - on - month. The gold prices of Laofengxiang decreased by 0.19% month - on - month, Zhou Dafu increased by 0.47% month - on - month, and Liulifuzhou remained unchanged [55] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The central bank's gold - buying pace slowed down, and the high gold price also led to a marginal decline in the demand for gold jewelry manufacturing [57] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - **Dollar and Treasury Yields**: The U.S. dollar fluctuated weakly this week, and the yield of 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds increased slightly. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the ratio of SP500 to COMEX gold price continued to decline [61][65] - **Central Bank Gold - Buying**: In September 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.87 tons [74]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum at low prices with a light position, and conduct oscillatory trading on the main contract of alumina with a light position [5]. - The fundamentals of alumina are currently in a state of oversupply with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of cast aluminum at low prices with a light position [8]. - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of raw material alumina is sufficient, and the smelting profit remains at a good level. The demand for downstream aluminum processing has increased due to the traditional consumption season and pre - holiday stockpiling [5]. - **Alumina**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments continues, and the supply of domestic bauxite is expected to be tight. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the demand is slightly increased but less than the supply growth, with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of raw material scrap aluminum is tight, limiting production. The pre - holiday stockpiling and the decline in cast aluminum quotes have slightly improved downstream demand, but consumption is still weak, and inventory has slightly increased [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from September 12; the closing price of LME Aluminum on September 18 was 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 0.97% from September 12. The alumina futures price was 2,915 yuan/ton, up 1.39% from September 12; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,355 yuan/ton, down 1.4% from September 12 [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.68, down 0.16 from September 12. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from September 12; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 59,115 yuan/ton, down 825 yuan/ton from September 12 [12][23]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of September 19, 2025, the position of Shanghai Aluminum was 525,078 lots, down 14.07% from September 12; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 1,255 lots from September 12 [18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 20,840 yuan/ton, down 1% from September 12, with a spot discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. The average spot price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy decreased [26][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 5.9%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 3.56%, and the domestic social inventory increased by 4.21%. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 0.7%, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 7.91% [36]. - **Bauxite**: The total import volume of bauxite increased year - on - year, and the port inventory slightly increased. In July 2025, the monthly import volume increased by 10.75% month - on - month and 34.22% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 33.65% year - on - year [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The quote of scrap aluminum decreased, and imports and exports increased. In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 50.9% year - on - year [45]. - **Alumina**: The production, imports, and exports of alumina increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 78.23% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume increased year - on - year, the production in August decreased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January to August increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 91.19% year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Aluminum Products**: The total production of aluminum products decreased year - on - year, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.2% year - on - year [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The production of cast aluminum alloy increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 11.77% year - on - year [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total production of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased. In August 2025, the production increased by 15.2% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume decreased by 28.39% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [65]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market declined slightly. In August 2025, the real estate development climate index decreased by 0.28 from last month. From January to August 2024, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.54% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 18.94% year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: Infrastructure investment showed a positive trend, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. From January to August 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year. In August 2025, automobile sales increased by 16.44% year - on - year, and production increased by 12.96% year - on - year [71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75].

研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.19」 红枣市场周报 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场及期股关联 添加客服 未来交易提示： 1、现货价格2、消费端 3 行情回顾：本周郑枣主力合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约4.35%。 行情展望：当前红枣市场处于新旧交替关键时期，主产区灰枣进入上糖期，关 注枣果长势。销区市场，据 Mysteel 农产品调研数据统计，截止2025年9月18日 红枣本周36家样本点物理库存在9247吨，较上周减少74吨，环比减少0.79%，同 比增加80.64%，样本点库存小幅下降。销区市场到货量少量，下游采购积极性一 般，双节备货力度一般整体成交氛围偏弱。 策略建议：操作上，建议郑枣2601合约短期逢高抛空思路对待。 「 周度要点小结」 「 期现市场情况」 本周红枣期货价格走势 图1、郑枣主力合约价格走势 | | M红枣2601 CJ601 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | म्बर के समय क ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 1.43%. Internationally, in the second half of August 2025, sugar production data in southern Brazil generally met expectations, and the sugar production progress accelerated. Domestically, in August 2025, China's sugar imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking mostly completed, northern sugar mills about to start production, and a slight expected increase in sugar production in the new season, the spot price is weakening steadily. There is no obvious positive driving force in the short term, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.43% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In Brazil, in the second half of August 2025, 50.06 million tons of sugarcane were crushed, a year - on - year increase of 10.686%, and 3.87 million tons of sugar were produced, a year - on - year increase of 18.21%. In China, in August 2025, sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons or 12.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. With the end of Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, northern sugar mills about to start production, and a slight expected increase in new - season sugar production, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales, and new - season output [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **ICE US Sugar**: The price of the US Sugar March contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.42%. As of September 9, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 139,610 lots, an increase of 53,805 lots from the previous week. Long positions decreased by 14,220 lots to 170,080 lots, and short positions increased by 39,585 lots to 309,690 lots [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.19 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.43%. The net position of the top 20 futures holders was - 73,276 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 10,364 [17][24]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Spread and Basis**: The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou Sugar futures was + 15 yuan per ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was + 479 yuan per ton [29]. - **Spot Market Price**: As of September 19, the price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,940 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,850 yuan per ton [36]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,527 yuan per ton, a decrease of 45 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 143 yuan per ton, a decrease of 61 yuan per ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,381 yuan per ton, an increase of 1 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 197 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1 yuan per ton from last week [42]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Production**: As of the end of August 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season in China was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% [45]. - **Supply - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [48]. - **Supply - Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.15% [52]. - **Demand - Sales Rate**: As of the end of August 2025, all sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - pressing season had stopped production. The total sugar production in this sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, 0.65 percentage points faster than the same period last year [56]. - **Demand - Production of Finished Sugar and Soft Drinks**: In August 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 454,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 17.7578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [60]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented, but no specific data is given in the summary part [61]. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: A chart of the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific data is summarized [66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2380 in the short - term [7]. - Recently, the output of resumed methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased this week, but the overall inventory is still at a relatively low level. Port inventory increased slightly this week, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next week, subject to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货 volume [8]. - The olefin operating rate increased this week after hedging, and is expected to continue to rise next week with the restart of some devices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic port methanol market was strong this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2260 - 2320 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2260 - 2300 yuan/ton. The inland market continued to rise. Due to factors such as pre - holiday replenishment by downstream and stable olefin demand, the marketable volume of goods in the production area was tight, and the receiving price in northern Shandong increased steadily [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased slightly. Inland enterprise inventory decreased, and the overall inventory level remained low. Port inventory increased slightly, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next week. The olefin operating rate increased this week and is expected to rise further next week [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the main methanol futures contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 0.76% [11]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of September 19, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 20 [14]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 18, there were 10,270 methanol warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 4,780 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of September 19, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 175.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of September 18, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [33]. - **Basis**: As of September 19, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of September 17, the market price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 18, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.94 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41]. - **Industry**: As of September 18, China's methanol production was 1,813,165 tons, a decrease of 106,100 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 79.91%, a decrease of 5.52% month - on - month. As of September 17, the total port inventory was 1.5578 million tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 340,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a decrease of 9.63% month - on - month; from January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 6.48 million tons, a decrease of 14.66% year - on - year. As of September 18, the methanol import profit was 5.68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.55 yuan/ton from last week [44][48][51]. - **Downstream**: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 84.89%, an increase of 2.23% month - on - month. As of September 19, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 969 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan/ton from last week [54][57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, maintain a bearish outlook. The USDA's supply - demand report shows an increase in the estimated planting and harvest areas of US corn in the 2025/26 season, a decrease in the estimated yield per acre, and an overall increase in production, which is higher than analysts' average expectations. In the domestic market, although low trade - grain inventories support prices, factors such as imported corn auctions, wheat for feed, approaching new - corn harvest seasons in North and Northeast China, and weak downstream demand lead to a decline in purchase prices. However, the slightly higher opening prices of new - season corn in some areas support market sentiment. [8][9][10] - For corn starch, also maintain a bearish outlook. The raw - material corn is in a new - old alternation period. Some enterprises have new maintenance due to insufficient raw - material supply, and the industry's operating rate is low. Although demand has slightly improved and inventory pressure has declined, the overall inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch squeeze the market demand for corn starch. [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA's report shows an increase in US corn production. Domestically, new - corn harvest is approaching, and downstream demand is weak, but the slightly higher opening prices of new - season corn support sentiment. [10] - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2463 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The raw - material supply is in an alternation period, the operating rate is low, demand has slightly improved, and inventory has decreased, but it is still high, and substitution products squeeze the market. [14] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Maintain a bearish outlook for both corn and corn starch. [9][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The 11 - month contract of corn futures closed lower with a total position of 811,835 lots, a decrease of 39,928 lots from the previous week. The 11 - month contract of corn starch futures also closed lower with a total position of 208,130 lots, a decrease of 9,924 lots from the previous week. [20] - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 4,758, and the net short position decreased compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 43,805, and the net short position also decreased. [26] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 30,658, and those of corn starch were 8,330. [32] - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of September 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 11 - month contract and the spot average price was + 192 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2800 yuan/ton and in Shandong was 2900 yuan/ton, with a stable - to - weak trend this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 337 yuan/ton. [37][42] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 10 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 15 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period. [48] - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn**: The spread between the 11 - month contracts of starch and corn was 295 yuan/ton. In the 38th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 456 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. [58] - **Substitute Spread**: As of September 18, 2025, the spot price of wheat was 2429.61 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 69.02 yuan/ton. In the 38th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 257 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton from the previous week. [63] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Corn - **Supply - Side: Port Inventory**: As of September 12, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 60.1 tons, a decrease of 5.50 tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 72.9 tons, a decrease of 21.6 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 32.1 tons, a decrease of 1.60 tons week - on - week. [52] - **Supply - Side: Monthly Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's ordinary corn import volume was 4.00 tons, a decrease of 39.00 tons (90.70%) from the same period last year and a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous month. [71] - **Supply - Side: Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 18, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.16 days, a decrease of 0.75 days from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.23%. [75] - **Demand - Side: Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of July, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal reserve of 39 million. [79] - **Demand - Side: Processing Profit**: As of September 18, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 162 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 155 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 692 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 284 yuan/ton. [88] 3.4 Industrial Chain Situation - Corn Starch - **Supply - Side: Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 17, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 5.91%. [92] - **Supply - Side: Starch Enterprise Operation and Inventory**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 517,200 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 249,100 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 48.15%, an increase of 1.01% from the previous week. As of September 17, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week, a weekly decrease of 2.12%, a monthly decrease of 8.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.46%. [96] 3.5 Option Market Analysis As of September 19, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 10.21%, an increase of 1.13% from 9.08% the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and rebounded, at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities. [99]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded with a weekly increase of 3.93% and an amplitude of 5.99%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton [5]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of stable supply and improving demand. The overall industrial inventory is continuously decreasing, and consumption expectations are positive [5]. - It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rebounded in the weekly line, with a price increase of 3.93% and an amplitude of 5.99%. The closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 200 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 20 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, relevant policies were introduced to expand service consumption. In terms of fundamentals, overseas mines and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, and domestic producers' purchasing sentiment recovered. The inventory of lithium salt factories and traders continued to decline, and the production willingness of smelters remained positive. Downstream enterprises mostly adopted the strategy of buying on dips, and pre - holiday stocking before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day made the spot market transactions relatively active [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The futures price fluctuated strongly. As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2,800 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price rose. As of September 19, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,050 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 460 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 876 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 10 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1125, a weekly decrease of 0.14% [19]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 7,215 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 370 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 21.77% month - on - month and 42.67% year - on - year. The export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 14.74% month - on - month and an increase of 37.2% year - on - year. In August 2025, the output was 45,880 tons, an increase of 2.87% month - on - month and 31.09% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a decrease of 5% month - on - month and 32% year - on - year [31]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: The average price was 57,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the output of electrolyte was 192,100 tons, an increase of 5.58% month - on - month and 43.84% year - on - year [34]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output of cathode materials was 240,000 tons, an increase of 12.17% month - on - month and 32.6% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 57%, a change of 6% month - on - month and - 3% year - on - year [37]. - **Ternary Materials**: The prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 types remained stable. In August 2025, the output was 65,860 tons, an increase of 6.36% month - on - month and 17.61% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 55%, a change of 3% month - on - month and - 4% year - on - year [42]. - **Lithium Manganate**: The average price of lithium manganate remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output was 10,330 tons, an increase of 2.08% month - on - month and a decrease of 6.09% year - on - year [47]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: The average price of lithium cobaltate remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output was 14,980 tons, an increase of 16.39% month - on - month and 92.05% year - on - year [50]. - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: In August 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 45.53%, a change of 0.54% month - on - month and 8.03% year - on - year. The monthly output was 1,391,000 vehicles, a change of 11.91% month - on - month, and the sales volume was 1,395,000 vehicles, a change of 10.54% month - on - month [52]. - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of August 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million, a year - on - year increase of 87.29% [57]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset was 0.06, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increasing volatility [60].