1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with overall fluctuations following soybean meal. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are in a shutdown state, leading to a tight supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a de - stocking mode, which supports its price. The current shutdown of oil mills and the tightened import soybean clearance policy affect near - month supply. But the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. The price of rapeseed oil declined today due to the drop in palm oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9044 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2361 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 604 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.6 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5332 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 35 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was - 46 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 204,941 lots, up 5,503 lots; rapeseed meal was 644,700 lots, up 13,230 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 18,486 lots, up 5,499 lots; rapeseed meal was - 45,495 lots, down 5,351 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3,297 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal was 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,440 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8,490 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,148.75 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Import costs: Imported rapeseed was 7,358.73 yuan/ton, down 15.41 yuan [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed oil - soybean oil was 1,630 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed oil - palm oil was 1,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 86 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal main contract basis was 79 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed import volume was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; imported rapeseed crushing profit was 608 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal were 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory was 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 17 million tons, down 0.91 million tons [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.9 million tons, up 1.9 million tons [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.74 million tons, up 0.26 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; edible vegetable oil production was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 18.44%, down 0.71%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 18.44%, down 0.72% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 13.98%, 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 11.68%, up 0.48% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.63%, down 0.41%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.63%, down 0.42% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.15%, unchanged; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14%, down 0.06% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 31, 2025 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures fell, ending a volatile year with prices slightly lower than at the beginning of the year. The March rapeseed contract fell 6.40 Canadian dollars, settling at 602.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, there is a stage of abundant supply, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans means the US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, keeping US soybeans in a weak adjustment [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from myagric.com on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]. - Pay attention to the possibility of opening commercial purchases of Australian rapeseed and the impact of palm oil price fluctuations on rapeseed oil prices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation amplitude expanding month - on - month. Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuate at a high level. Some tire enterprises are on holiday for maintenance, and most are in a wait - and - see mode, purchasing cautiously, leading to a significant inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port due to the decline in total outbound volume. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, and it may rise slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,790 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 185 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,805 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton. The 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 40 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,985 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 181,920 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 13,145 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 70,581 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 40,988 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 45,601 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,974 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 15,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,297 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 100,690 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 100 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 57,959 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,870 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,865 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 490 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,090 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,152 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 1,895 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 58.15 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 55.49 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, with no change; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 45,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly start - up rate of all - steel tires is 59.55%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the weekly start - up rate of semi - steel tires is 69.35%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.06%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.3%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.17%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8%. As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 percentage points [2].

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - In January, the supply - demand of styrene is gradually shifting from tight balance to wide balance, with limited cost - side support, and it is expected to show weak fluctuations in the short term. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 6,580 for the daily K - line of EB2602 [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6,739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan; the trading volume was 269,802 lots, a decrease of 30,737 lots; the long positions of the top 20 holders were 351,194 lots, an increase of 14,043 lots; the open interest of the active contract was 302,675 lots, a decrease of 8,653 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 holders were - 32,741 lots, a decrease of 6,219 lots; the short positions of the top 20 holders were 383,935 lots, an increase of 20,262 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a decrease of 757 lots; the closing price of the March contract was 6,794 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 848 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China intermediate price was 858 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 6,625 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), 7,065 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), 6,695 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 6,915 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 746 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 726 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 675.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 430 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Taiwan price of pure benzene was 661.17 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB US Gulf price was 53 US cents/gallon, unchanged; the FOB Rotterdam price was 738 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar; the market prices in the South, East, and North China pure benzene markets were 5,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5,350 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and 5,250 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan) respectively [2] Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 70.23%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 171,760 tons, an increase of 800 tons; the total inventory at the main ports in East China was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons; the trade inventory at the main ports in East China was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 43.64% (a decrease of 8.92 percentage points), 69.9% (an increase of 0.5 percentage points), 60.4% (an increase of 1.8 percentage points), 36% (a decrease of 2 percentage points), and 80.52% (an increase of 1.14 percentage points) respectively [2] Industry News - From December 26th to January 1st, the styrene factory output was 352,200 tons, a decrease of 0.68% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate was 70.23%, a decrease of 0.47% month - on - month. The operating rate of downstream EPS decreased by 8.92% to 43.64%, PS increased by 1.8% to 60.4%, ABS increased by 0.5% to 69.9%, UPR decreased by 2% to 36%, and styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 1.14% to 80.52%. As of December 25th, the styrene factory inventory was 171,800 tons, an increase of 0.47% month - on - month. As of January 5th, the East China port inventory was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% month - on - month; the South China port inventory was 20,600 tons, an increase of 10.16% month - on - month. On January 4th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 139.35 yuan/ton. On December 31st, the integrated profit of styrene was 723.78 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply of methanol is relatively abundant, and the inventory is expected to increase overall in the winter due to weak demand expectations. The port inventory continued to accumulate last week but is expected to decline from high levels in January due to expected import reduction. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate decreased slightly last week, but there is an expectation of an increase. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2190 - 2280 in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 43 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 773,584 lots, an increase of 42,196 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 128,251 lots, a decrease of 21,279 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,648, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1857.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 312.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 257 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 256 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 63 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.64 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 104.71 tons, an increase of 3.98 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 43.03 tons, an increase of 2.51 tons. The methanol import profit is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 90.31%, a decrease of 0.93% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 38.24%, a decrease of 4.19%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.6%, a decrease of 3.49%. The operating rate of acetic acid is 80.3%, an increase of 2.71%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, unchanged. The operating rate of olefins is 87.46%, a decrease of 1.8%. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 1115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 16.39%, a decrease of 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.44%, a decrease of 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.85%, a decrease of 0.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.85%, a decrease of 0.77% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 31, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 42.26 tons, a 4.61% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered was 18.30 tons, a 5.48% decrease. The total methanol port inventory in China was 147.74 tons, an increase of 6.49 tons, with both East and South China ports accumulating inventory. The domestic methanol - to - olefins device capacity utilization rate was 88.66%, a decrease of 0.02%. Recently, the domestic methanol production loss from maintenance and production cuts is less than the output increase from recovery, leading to an overall increase in production [3]

热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/5 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,248 | -22↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1294526 | +26969↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 28,599 | +15719↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -23 | 0.00 | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 132188 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 144 | -4↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,290.00 | -20.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,250.00 | -10.00↓ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,170.00 | -10.00↓ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 42.00 | + ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 opened with a gap down, rebounded after a decline, and finally closed at 5406 yuan/ton. Recently, the operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene have slightly increased, and the domestic pure benzene production has increased month-on-month. The operating rates of downstream caprolactam, aniline, and adipic acid have increased month-on-month, while those of styrene and aniline have decreased. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream has slightly increased. The inventory at East China ports continues to accumulate, far higher than the same period in previous years. The profit of domestic petroleum benzene has recovered from a low level and is maintaining a repair trend. In January, two sets of equipment at Zhejiang Petrochemical will be under maintenance, while equipment at Fune Energy, Yunnan Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, etc. will be restarted one after another, and a new device at BASF Guangdong is planned to be put into production. The domestic pure benzene production is expected to increase slightly. The load of large-scale styrene equipment downstream is stable, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable. A small number of caprolactam devices have resumed operation, and the overall operating rate is expected to change little. Some maintenance devices for phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are planned to restart. In terms of cost, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela has been gradually digested, and there are still concerns about future crude oil oversupply. International oil prices fluctuated weakly during the day. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5350 - 5520 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5406 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan; the settlement price was 5410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 yuan. The trading volume was 15,944 lots, an increase of 6366 lots; the open interest was 27,774 lots, an increase of 489 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5350 yuan/ton, in the North China market was 5250 yuan/ton, in the South China market was 5300 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast region was 5236 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu was 5375 yuan/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea was 666 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price in China was 673.16 US dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 61.38 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.53 US dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 530.13 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.25 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 75.18%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points; the weekly output was 43.55 tons, a decrease of 0.08 tons. The terminal inventory of pure benzene at ports was 30 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons. The production cost was 4993.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115.75 yuan; the production profit was 332 yuan/ton, an increase of 131 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 70.23%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 75.52%, an increase of 1.47 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 79.73%, an increase of 1.58 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 59.81%, a decrease of 3.17 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 68.2%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points [2] Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.22% to 75.11%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 1.07% to 60%. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 0.27% to 71.34%. As of January 5, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 31.8 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.00%. As of January 4, the weekly profit of petroleum benzene was 371 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in caustic soda prices has led to a narrowing of the profit margin for Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises, but they are still in a theoretically profitable state. With fewer planned maintenance capacities for chlor - alkali in January and the resumption of previously shut - down facilities, domestic chlor - alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating rate. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises will remain basically stable, and non - aluminum downstream industries will maintain rigid demand with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda in the spot market remain relatively loose, and the purchase and market prices of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong have recently decreased. Although there are many planned alumina production facilities to be put into operation in the first half of the year, the long - term low profit in the industry has increased the expectation of production cuts in the future. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2090 and resistance around 2200 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract was 2164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda futures contract was 175,556 lots, an increase of 29,993 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures traders was - 21,007 lots, a decrease of 1,725 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda futures contract was 313,841 lots, an increase of 25,637 lots; the closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 1963 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2303 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2156.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.63 yuan; the basis of caustic soda was - 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 642 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry Data - From December 27 to January 2, the capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda was 86.4%, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The alumina operating rate decreased by 0.47% to 84.67%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 1.61% to 85.42%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.47% to 60.81%. As of January 2, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 485,700 tons (wet tons), a 9.84% increase from the previous week. From December 25 to January 4, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 153 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous period [2]. 3.7 Industry News - SH2603 opened with a downward gap and closed down 3.82% at 2,164 yuan/ton. Recently, the resumption of some facilities in North, East, and South China has led to an increase in the average national capacity utilization rate of caustic soda [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 129,980.00 | +8400.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -126,463.00 | +11322.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 515,292.00 | +25098.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -2,400.00 | -1180.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 20,281.00 | 0.00 | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 119,500.00 | +1000.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 117,000.00 | +1500.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -10,480.00 | -7400.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 1,470.00 | +10.00↑ 磷锂铝石平均价（日 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is predicted that the inventory level may further increase this week due to continuous supply growth and short - term impact on raw material procurement from downstream maintenance; the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week but may slightly rebound this week; the BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary of Each Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 1,1645 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 40,237 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,024 tons; the 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in Shandong, Shanghai, and Guangdong are 11,500 yuan/ton, 11,500 yuan/ton, and 11,600 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the basis of synthetic rubber is - 115 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change; the capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 44,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons; the production profit of butadiene rubber is 334 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The production of all - steel tires in the current month is 1.301 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong are 3.27 days and 47.05 days respectively; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.53%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.83 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 57.93%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.76 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - In December, the production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%; the capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, 4.65 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.68 percentage points lower than the same period last year; as of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.07% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - V2605 fluctuated weakly and closed at 4,764 yuan/ton. Recently, the restart of Hanwha Ningbo and Xinpu Chemical plants led to a环比 increase in PVC capacity utilization. The downstream PVC products' operating rate decreased环比, with both pipe and profile operating rates declining. Social inventory slightly accumulated at a high level. The costs of calcium carbide and ethylene processes decreased, and profits were slightly repaired. In January, the impact of chlor - alkali plant overhauls was seasonally weak, with few existing overhaul plans, and the industry operating rate was expected to remain at a relatively high level. The terminal real estate and infrastructure were in the low - temperature off - season, and the operating rates of hard products such as pipes and profiles might continue to decline. Market sentiment was pessimistic, and downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory based on rigid demand. The overseas market was highly competitive, and exports provided limited support. Despite some chlor - alkali integrated plants being in a theoretical loss state, there was no opportunity for PVC valuation repair under the high - supply background. Affected by the spring overhaul expectation, the spot price was at a discount to the 05 contract. In the short term, V2605 was expected to fluctuate, and the daily K - line should focus on the support around 4,700 and the resistance around 4,860 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC was 4,764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan; the trading volume was 770,165 lots, an increase of 27,820 lots; the open interest was 957,977 lots, an increase of 34,447 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 926,879 lots, an increase of 20,553 lots; the short positions were 1,007,152 lots, an increase of 27,593 lots; the net long positions were - 80,273 lots, a decrease of 7,040 lots [3] 现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,505.77 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,563.12 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.12 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,606.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,415 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 407 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 448 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 产业情况 - The operating rate of PVC was 78.63%, a 1.4% increase; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 78.36%, a 0.13% decrease; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.29%, a 5.01% increase. The total social inventory of PVC was 52.52 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 48.06 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 4.46 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons [3] 下游情况 - The national real estate climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.560662 billion square meters, an increase of 31.2717 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 420.2457 billion yuan, an increase of 30.416 billion yuan [3] 期权市场 - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 22.76%, an increase of 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.31%, an increase of 0.11%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.67%, a decrease of 0.53%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.67%, a decrease of 0.53% [3] 行业消息 - From December 27 to January 2, the operating rate of PVC plants increased by 1.4% to 78.63%; the operating rate of PVC downstream decreased by 0.58% to 43.94%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.6% to 35.6%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.79% to 29.78%. As of January 2, the social inventory of PVC was 1.0767 million tons, a 1.46% increase from last week [2]