Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - International sugar production in Brazil is accelerating, with an 18.21% year - on - year increase in sugar production in the second half of August 2025. In China, sugar imports in August 2025 increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the end of mid - autumn stocking, the upcoming start of sugar mills in the north, and a projected slight increase in sugar production in the new year, the spot price is expected to weaken steadily. There is no obvious short - term positive driver, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5452 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the main contract position is 456,830 lots, up 6,523 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 10,315, down 49; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 75,201 lots, down 1,925 lots; the total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,433 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,630 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,392 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,576 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5,820 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), 5,800 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and 5,900 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44.98 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.59%, an increase of 1%. The monthly sugar import volume is 830,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.744 million tons, an increase of 150,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.9%, an increase of 0.32%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.91%, an increase of 0.33%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.32%, an increase of 0.82%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.43%, an increase of 0.16% [2]. Industry News - As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 106,344 lots, a decrease of 33,266 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 175,246 lots, an increase of 5,166 lots; short positions were 281,590 lots, a decrease of 28,100 lots. As of the week of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 85, an increase of 1 from the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.2827 million tons, an increase of 98,700 tons from the previous week. In the second half of August 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil was 50.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.686%; sugar production was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21%. In August 2025, China's sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons or 12.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [2]. Viewpoint Summary - With the end of mid - autumn stocking, the upcoming start of sugar mills in the north, and a projected slight increase in sugar production in the new year, the spot price is expected to weaken steadily. There is no obvious short - term positive driver, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 22, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1217.5, up 0.12%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The LPR remained unchanged this month. The capacity utilization rate at the mine end has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, some coal varieties have rebounded, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has rebounded, the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and the inventory is at a neutral level. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a fluctuating and bullish trend, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On September 22, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1718.0, down 0.43%. The second - round price cut of coke in the spot market has been implemented. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan for stabilizing growth in the steel industry, aiming for an average annual increase of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, with economic benefits stabilizing and rebounding, and market supply - demand becoming more balanced. On the demand side, the current period's hot metal output was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.0047 million tons, with hot metal output fluctuating at a high level, and the coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide in the current period was 17 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a fluctuating and bullish trend, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1217.50 yuan/ton, down 14.50; J主力合约收盘价 was 1718.00 yuan/ton, down 20.50 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 950036.00 hands, down 7417.00; J期货合约持仓量 was 52497.00 hands, down 272.00 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal was - 125357.00 hands, down 9486.00; the net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 5382.00 hands, down 64.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 89.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 133.50 yuan/ton, down 11.00 [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 100.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 1550.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1009.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan first - class metallurgical coke was 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 149.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 2.50; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported main coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, up 90.00; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J主力合约基差 was - 53.00 yuan/ton, up 20.50 [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM主力合约基差 was 52.50 yuan/ton, up 14.50 [2]. Upstream Situation - The fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.80 million tons, up 1.20; the fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 304.40 million tons, up 23.80 [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, up 0.02; the raw coal output was 39049.70 million tons, up 951.00 [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 4274.00 million tons, up 713.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 190.00 thousand tons, up 4.40 [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 515.32 million tons, up 48.97; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.80 million tons, up 2.49 [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 940.41 million tons, up 56.87; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 66.41 million tons, down 1.43 [2]. National Industry Situation - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 790.34 million tons, down 3.39; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 644.67 million tons, up 11.38 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.74 days, down 0.07; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.42 days, up 0.13 [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 1016.22 million tons, up 55.50; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 55.00 million tons, down 34.00 [2]. - The coking coal output was 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.87%, down 0.05 [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 17.00 yuan/ton, down 52.00; the coke output was 4259.70 million tons, up 74.20 [2]. National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18 [2]. - The crude steel output was 7736.86 million tons, down 228.96 [2]. Industry News - Shanghai optimized and adjusted the property tax policy: the first - home purchase is exempt from property tax [2]. - The leaders of China and the US had a phone call. Trump said the call was "very productive", and he plans to meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC meeting and visit China early next year [2]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a series of theme press conferences on "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" at 3 pm on Monday, with Pan Gongsheng, Wu Qing, Li Yunze, and Zhu Hexin attending [2]. - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on carrying out a special rectification action on network chaos in the automotive industry, emphasizing that online trolls and "black - mouthed" critics cannot build good cars or good brands, and only through the coordinated efforts of government supervision, enterprise self - discipline, and platform responsibility can a good public opinion environment be created [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply is expected to be loose, demand to decline slightly, and prices to remain under pressure. However, with the "anti - involution" hype, there may be changes. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract at low levels in the short term [2]. - For glass, the supply and demand situation remains at a low level. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, which may drag down glass demand. If the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1293 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1199 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: down 8 yuan/ton; soda ash main contract open interest: 1420087 hands; glass main contract open interest: 1274079 hands, down 18252 hands [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest: - 234955, up 24971; glass top 20 net open interest: - 193441, up 10196 [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 2154 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 754 tons [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 108 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; glass basis: - 119 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. - 1 - 5 month glass contract spread: - 127 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; 1 - 5 month soda ash contract spread: - 89 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - North China heavy soda ash: 1210 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass sheets: 1080 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 85.53%, down 1.76%; float glass enterprise operating rate: 76.01%, unchanged [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 16.02 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production production lines: 225, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 175.56 million tons, up 0.85 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6090.8 million heavy boxes, down 67.5 million heavy boxes [2]. 下游情况 - Real - estate new construction area cumulative value: 35206 million square meters, up 4841.68 million square meters; real - estate completion area cumulative value: 25034 million square meters, up 2467.39 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Hubei Shuanghuan's soda ash plant increased production, with a light soda ash quote of 1160 yuan/ton [2]. - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant reduced production due to synthetic ammonia problems, with stable prices [2]. - Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 million tons/year soda ash plant reduced operation, with a load of about 70% [2]. - Shandong Haihua's 3 million tons/year soda ash plant reduced operation [2]. - Shandong Haitian Bio - Chemical's 1.5 million tons/year soda ash plant resumed production [2]. - Guangdong Southern Alkali's 600,000 tons/year soda ash plant operated at about 80% load [2]. - Henan Tongbai Haijing's plant had one line under maintenance from September 13th, expected for 10 days, with stable prices [2]. - Anhui Huainan Alkali Factory's plant boiler was ignited [2]. - The Sichuan - Chongqing soda ash market was stable, with expected increased supply after plant resumption, and strong market wait - and - see sentiment [2]. 提示关注 - There is no news today [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17125 | -25 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2003 | -1 | | | 11-12月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -20 | -10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 100923 | 4528 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | 72 | 960 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 47289 | -2086 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 57332 | -9229 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 220300 | -2375 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17000 | 0 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17260 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -125 | 25 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -43.72 | 0.33 | | | 铅精矿50%-60%价格,济源(日) | 16471 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [2] 2. Core View - The current jujube market is at a critical period of transition between old and new seasons. The main - producing areas' grey jujubes are in the sugar - increasing period. The physical inventory of 36 sample points in the distribution market decreased by 74 tons week - on - week, a 0.79% decline, and increased by 80.64% year - on - year. The arrival volume in the distribution market is small, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the double - festival stocking intensity is average with a weak overall trading atmosphere. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for jujube is 10,735 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 149,819 lots (a week - on - week increase of 2,097 lots), the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 5,655 lots (a week - on - week decrease of 2,038 lots), the number of warehouse receipts is 8,323 (a week - on - week decrease of 107), and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 58 (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - The unified price of Kashgar jujubes is 6 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei and Henan is 4.75 yuan/jin, the unified price of Alar jujubes is 5.2 yuan/kg, the unified price of Aksu jujubes is 4.8 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade jujubes in Henan is 10.5 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei is 10.3 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg), the price of special - grade jujubes in Guangdong is 11.7 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade jujubes in Guangdong is 10.6 yuan/kg, all unchanged except as noted [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 606.9 million tons (an increase of 318.7 million tons), and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares (a decrease of 41,000 hectares) [2] Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 9,247 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 74 tons), the monthly jujube export volume is 1,784,164 kg (an increase of 19,057 kg), and the cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 18,899,838 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of jujubes of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons (a decrease of 2,981.06 tons), and the cumulative year - on - year jujube production is 1.47% (a decrease of 34.59 percentage points) [2] Industry News - The Hebei Cuierzhuang market received 6 trucks of jujubes, with reference prices of 10.50 yuan/kg for special - grade and 8.50 yuan/kg for second - grade, and there was little market trading. The Guangdong Ruyifang market received 5 trucks of jujubes, with spot prices fluctuating slightly, and customers purchased according to demand with an average daily trading volume of about 1 truck in the morning market [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - The alumina market shows a low - level oscillation in the main contract, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient with a slight increase, while demand growth is less than supply growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract rises first and then falls, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips [2]. - The cast aluminum main contract opens low and rebounds slightly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of cast aluminum is reduced, and demand shows a slight recovery but remains weak. Light - position short - term long trading on dips is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,745 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 19 yuan. The main contract position is 236,067 lots, down 9,800 lots. The LME aluminum three - month quote is 2,676 US dollars/ton, down 29 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,934 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread is - 15 yuan, down 4 yuan. The main contract position is 317,523 lots, up 11,106 lots [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,340 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread is - 60 yuan, down 45 yuan. The main contract position is 10,767 lots, up 351 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,950 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the average price of Yangtze Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,840 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of electrolytic aluminum is 5 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of alumina is 6 yuan, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,750 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 610 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The monthly production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the utilization rate of production capacity is 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points. The demand from the electrolytic aluminum part is 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 16,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the import volume of aluminum scrap is 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production is 217,260.71 tons, down 30,322.61 tons. The export volume is 25,604.34 tons, down 15,383.37 tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 53.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Industry**: The monthly production is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate Industry**: The national housing prosperity index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.64%, down 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.13%, down 0.23 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.05%, up 0.0031 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, which may affect the global capital re - balance, and non - US equity markets are more favored [2]. - Sino - US relations are expected to be improved through communication [2]. - The real estate industry is entering a transformation period from "quantity" to "quality" [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The main contract of alumina oscillates at a low level, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient with a slight increase, while demand growth is less than supply growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3.9 Aluminum View Summary - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rises first and then falls, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy opens low and rebounds slightly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of cast aluminum is reduced, and demand shows a slight recovery but remains weak. Light - position short - term long trading on dips is recommended [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 22, the silicon - iron 2511 contract was reported at 5648, down 2.01%. The spot price of silicon - iron in Ningxia was reported at 5480. The EU will propose to ban the import of Russian LNG in 2027, one year earlier than the original plan. After the previous profit improvement, the output has rebounded rapidly, with most manufacturers hedging in the early stage and the inventory at a neutral level. The short - term cost is supported. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 220 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 280 yuan/ton. The September tender price of HeSteel for 75B silicon - iron is 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous round. Technically, the daily K is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the market is expected to fluctuate. [2] - On September 22, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5870, down 1.84%. The spot price of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5700, down 50 yuan/ton. The photovoltaic industry chain price has shown a stable and rising trend. Since mid - May, the output has been on the rise, and the inventory has increased significantly this period. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 25.3 tons, and the iron - water demand has returned to the previous level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 60 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 155 yuan/ton. The final tender price of HeSteel Group for manganese - silicon in September is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the market is expected to fluctuate. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Manganese - Silicon (SM)**: The closing price of the SM main contract was 5870 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan; the position was 548,674 lots, down 2718 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 65,894 lots, up 16402 lots; the 5 - 1 month contract spread was 48 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 60,126, down 550. [2] - **Silicon - Iron (SF)**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5648 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan; the position was 389,776 lots, down 6230 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 32,760 lots, up 2818 lots; the 5 - 1 month contract spread was 120 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 17,475, down 153. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Manganese - Silicon**: The price of FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Guizhou was 5790 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; in Yunnan was 5700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average weekly price of the manganese - silicon index was 5717 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan. The basis of the SM main contract was - 170 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. [2] - **Silicon - Iron**: The price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5560 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 5290 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; in Ningxia was 5480 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SF main contract was - 168 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Manganese - Silicon**: The price of South African Mn38 lump ore at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the port inventory of manganese ore was 452.5 tons, unchanged. [2] - **Silicon - Iron**: The price of silica (98%, Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized, Shenmu) was 760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Manganese - Silicon**: The weekly operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.7%; the weekly supply was 208,775 tons, down 5355 tons; the semi - monthly manufacturer inventory was 198,900 tons, up 32100 tons; the monthly inventory days of national steel mills was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days. [2] - **Silicon - Iron**: The weekly operating rate was 34.84%, unchanged; the weekly supply was 113,100 tons, up 100 tons; the semi - monthly manufacturer inventory was 63,390 tons, down 6550 tons; the monthly inventory days of national steel mills was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84%, up 0.15%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.38%, up 0.18%; the monthly crude steel output was 7736.86 tons, down 228.96 tons. The weekly demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types was 121426 tons, down 888 tons; the weekly demand for silicon - iron from five major steel types was 19588.6 tons, down 148.8 tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - The leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and they will meet during the APEC meeting and plan a visit to China early next year. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" series. - Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the special rectification of network chaos in the automotive industry. - The US Department of Agriculture will cancel a 30 - year - old household food security report. - The EU will propose to ban the import of Russian LNG in 2027, one year earlier than the original plan. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The copper market fundamentals are in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly boosting demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 80,160 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,984.50 dollars/ton, down 4.50 dollars. The main contract inter - month spread is 10 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 176,962 lots, up 60,410 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 17,286 lots, down 3,082 lots; the LME copper inventory is 147,650 tons, down 1,225 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 105,814 tons, up 11,760 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 14,400 tons, up 950 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrants are 29,893 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,225 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,230 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 57.50 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3M spread is - 64.90 dollars/ton, up 6.19 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The copper smelter TC is - 40.80 dollars/thousand tons, up 0.50 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 70,520 yuan/metal ton, up 200 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,220 yuan/metal ton, up 200 yuan. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are both 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social copper inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 530 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 331.497 billion yuan, up 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment is 6,030.919 billion yuan, up 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287,100 pieces, down 438,933,600 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.55%, down 1.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.07%, down 0.02 percentage points. The current month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.17%, up 0.0027 percentage points; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.33, down 0.0708 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank believes it has reached the inflation target but faces uncertainties. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is expected to shift the policy focus and may drive global capital re - balance. Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with a US congressional delegation, emphasizing Sino - US cooperation. The real estate industry is entering a transformation from quantity to quality [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EU has set a goal of achieving at least 30GW of locally - manufactured solar photovoltaic products by 2030 through the "Net - Zero Industry Act" (NZIA) and the "EU Solar Charter". The short - term supply of polysilicon is difficult to increase significantly due to high - level energy - consumption standards and new capacity access thresholds. The demand side shows that silicon wafer prices have risen slightly, but downstream customers are hesitant. The overall photovoltaic industry chain has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with large terminal transaction pressure. It is expected that prices will weaken, suppressing the demand for polysilicon. Overall, supply remains flat and demand weakens. Polysilicon is under fundamental sentiment pressure, and the market is expected to show a high - level oscillation. Today, polysilicon declined due to fundamental sentiment, with a bearish technical signal and short - term decline pressure. The operating suggestion is to wait and see or arrange put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,990 yuan/ton, down 1,710 yuan; the open interest of the main contract is 123,917 lots, up 8,068 lots. The spread between November and December for polysilicon is - 2,590 yuan, down 50 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,040 yuan/ton, down 1,355 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the basis of polysilicon is - 50 yuan/ton, up 555 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 dollars/kg, up 0.09 dollars. The average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feed polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,950 yuan/ton, down 355 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 dollars/kg, up 0.14 dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.62 dollars/ton, down 0.25 dollars [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6,6382,000 kilowatts, down 1,004,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, up 21,456,820 units; the monthly import volume is 14,525,650 units, up 3,429,750 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 dollars/unit, down 0.02 dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 30.34, up 0.62 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The EU has introduced the "Net - Zero Industry Act" (NZIA) and the "EU Solar Charter" to achieve a goal of at least 30GW of locally - manufactured solar photovoltaic products by 2030. Multiple polysilicon - related events have been held, including the annual conference of the Silicon Industry Branch discussing energy - consumption standards and reviewing past market conditions, the monthly regular meeting of the Photovoltaic Industry Association discussing storage policies and production and sales restrictions, and the National Standardization Administration soliciting opinions on 3 mandatory national standards, which will promote the implementation of storage and raise the access threshold [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both rose. Soda ash futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling. In the first half of the week, influenced by the news of soda ash production cuts, there was a significant upward movement. Subsequently, due to the digestion of the positive impact of the Fed's interest rate cut, market sentiment declined, and the futures price dropped. The trend of glass futures was the same as that of soda ash, with similar influencing factors [6]. - For soda ash, in the supply - side, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production decreased. In the long - term, with the "anti - involution" policy, some backward production capacities may be phased out, while the more environmentally friendly natural soda ash production capacity is rising steadily, with no obvious overall change in capacity. In the demand - side, the cold repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, with overall production at a low level, showing obvious signs of rigid - demand production. The profit increased due to the rising spot price, and it is expected to remain at a low level next week. The demand from photovoltaic glass remained unchanged this week, but with the "anti - involution" process, the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased slightly this week, and the replenishment by traders continued but with reduced intensity. Overall, soda ash supply is expected to be loose, demand to decline slightly, and prices to remain under pressure, but there may be variables with "anti - involution" speculation. - For glass, in the supply - side, the situation is similar to that of soda ash's demand for glass, with production at a low level and profit increasing due to rising spot prices, expected to remain low next week. In the demand - side, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic. If the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand; otherwise, it will continue to drag down glass demand. The downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly, with purchases mainly for rigid demand. Although the inventory has started to accumulate again, the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. If the central bank cuts interest rates next Monday, the market may grow again [6]. - The SA2601 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 1,280 - 1,360, with stop - loss in the range of 1,240 - 1,380. The FG2601 contract is recommended to be operated in the range of 1,150 - 1,240, with stop - loss in the range of 1,130 - 1,260. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risks [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, soda ash futures rose 2.17%, and glass futures rose 3.05%. Soda ash futures first rose and then fell. The first half - week increase was due to production cut news, and the subsequent decline was due to the digestion of the Fed's interest - rate cut positive. Glass futures had the same trend [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply is expected to be loose, demand to decline slightly, and prices to remain under pressure but may change with "anti - involution" speculation. For glass, if the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand; otherwise, it will continue to drag down glass demand. The market may grow again if there is an interest - rate cut next Monday [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade SA2601 in the 1,280 - 1,360 range with a 1,240 - 1,380 stop - loss, and operate FG2601 in the 1,150 - 1,240 range with a 1,130 - 1,260 stop - loss [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: This week, soda ash and glass futures prices both rose [8]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of soda ash increased, and the basis strengthened. The spot price of glass also strengthened, and the basis increased, expected to further strengthen in the future. The soda ash - glass price difference weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week [12][16][20]. - **Specific Data**: As of September 18, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.5 yuan/ton, and the soda ash basis was - 89.5 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1,084 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton, and the glass basis was - 124 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash price difference was 98 yuan/ton [14][18][22]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Production and Operating Rate**: This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production decreased. As of September 18, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 85.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.35%, and the national weekly soda ash production was 74.57 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%. The cold - repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, and the overall production remained at a low level, with a slight expected increase next week [24][29][36]. - **Profit and Cost**: As of September 18, 2025, the theoretical profit of China's dual - ton soda ash by the combined - soda process was - 73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1,739 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 57 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 44 yuan/ton. The profit of glass enterprises increased mainly due to the strengthening of spot prices. It is expected that the soda ash production capacity will decline next week, and the glass production capacity will remain at a low level [31][34]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased slightly this week, and the replenishment by traders continued but with reduced intensity. The glass enterprise inventory decreased, and the de - stocking is expected to slow down next week. As of September 18, 2025, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 175.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%, and the total glass enterprise inventory was 60.908 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09% [47][51]. - **Downstream Demand**: The deep - processing orders of domestic glass downstream increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of September 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.5 days [53][55].