Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The decrease in temperature has increased the laying rate of hens, further exacerbating the supply pressure. However, due to pre - Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking, the recent purchase volume of traders has increased, and the market demand has shown signs of recovery, which has supported the egg price and the futures price. But the high - capacity pressure still exists and restricts the futures price. It is recommended to conduct short - term, fast - in - and - fast - out trading and pay attention to the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the egg futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 3112 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 72 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: High egg supply due to high inventory and increased laying rate; demand recovery due to festival stocking; futures price supported by spot price but restricted by high - capacity pressure [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term fast - in - and - fast - out trading, and pay attention to the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 11 contract fluctuated and closed higher, with a position of 398,055 lots, a decrease of 11,258 lots compared with the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 18,354, and the net short position decreased slightly compared with last week [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3746 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 153 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week. The basis between the active 11 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 634 yuan/ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of eggs was - 306 yuan/500 kilograms, which was at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of September 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.55 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 4.98 yuan/kg [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side - Inventory and Replenishment**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%; the national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [39]. - **Supply Side - Culling Index and Age**: As of July 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%; the national culling age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of September 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2950 yuan/ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.02 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan/kg [55]. - **Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of September 12, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.6 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.22 yuan/kg [59]. - **Egg Exports**: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared with the same period last year (an increase of 7.87%), and a decrease of 81.14 tons compared with the previous month [64]. 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: There is a chart of its price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis content is provided [66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 in the short term [7] - The domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber has recovered, with sufficient overall supply. The downstream continues to purchase at low prices, putting pressure on the negotiation focus of the spot market. Some industry players expect a reduction in the mainstream supply price. Before the National Day holiday, downstream demand for stockpiling is expected to drive up buying and reduce inventory levels [8] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders are in the concentrated production period, which supports the overall operation, while the demand in the all - steel tire replacement market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The overall shipment is less than expected, and some enterprises may control production flexibly, with a possible slight decline in short - term capacity utilization [8] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 in the short term [7] - Market review: The price of the cis - butadiene rubber market in Shandong, China, fluctuated weakly this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,400 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina's main sales companies were reduced by 200 yuan/ton in total. As of September 18, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, increasing domestic production. The overall supply of cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Affected by downstream low - price purchases, the negotiation focus of the spot market is under pressure. Some industry players expect a price cut. The inventories of enterprises and sample trading enterprises have decreased slightly. Before the National Day holiday, downstream stockpiling demand is expected to drive up buying and reduce inventory levels. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders are in the concentrated production period, which supports the overall operation, while the demand in the all - steel tire replacement market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The overall shipment is less than expected, and some enterprises may control production flexibly, with a possible slight decline in short - term capacity utilization [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fell by 1.08% this week [12] - As of September 19, the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts of butadiene rubber was 70 [18] - As of September 19, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from last week [21] - **Spot Market** - As of September 18, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week [25] - As of September 18, the basis of butadiene rubber was 135 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of September 18, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 599.38 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.56 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 850 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [28] - As of September 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.78%, a decrease of 1.55% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 23,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from last week [31] - **Production and Profit of Cis - Butadiene Rubber** - In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month [34] - As of September 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.72%, a decrease of 3.56% from last week [34] - As of September 18, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 658 yuan/ton, a decrease of 151 yuan/ton from last week [37] - **Inventory** - As of September 19, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,720 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from last week [41] - As of September 19, the domestic manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 25,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 7,820 tons, a decrease of 390 tons from last week [41] - **Downstream** - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly this week. Most tire enterprises maintained last week's production level, and some enterprises still faced shortages. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders were in the concentrated production period, which supported the overall operation [44] - In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 325,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.9403 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 454,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.7891 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.52% [47]

尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.09.19」 郑州尿素期货价格走势 • 本周郑州尿素主力合约价格震荡收跌，周度-0.12%。 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场先扬后抑，价格继续低位波动。截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂 下跌至1610-1640元/吨，均价环比下跌5元/吨。 行情展望：近期部分停车装置恢复，国内尿素日产量增加，下周预计1家企业计划停车，4-5家停 车企业可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，产量或有所增加。国内农业需求较为零散， 局部区域仍处于储备阶段，对尿素市场支撑有限。工业需求提升不及预期，复合肥产能利用率环 比小幅回升，但据悉若新接订单量不足，企业则降负荷消化库存，预计短期复合肥产能利用率稳 中有所下滑。近期继续集中集港出口，部分尿素企业出口订单将执行到本月底。本周尿素企业库 存继续小幅增加，局部低价吸引下游适当补仓，但国内整体需求不及供应，尿素日产仍有提升趋 势，加之尿素企业面临国庆收单，预计短期尿素企业库存或继 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.19」 天然橡胶市场周报 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 业务咨询 添加客服 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶市场原料及宏观驱动减弱，胶价走跌。进口胶市场报盘下跌，套利盘平 仓出货，轮胎厂逢低补货。国产天然橡胶现货市场重心下调，美联储降息不及预期，宏观情绪降 温，现货市场报盘下调，交投谨慎，实单跟进有限。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期，云南产区天气扰动减少，胶水上量逐步恢复正常，原 料价格暂稳；海南产区降水扰动减弱，割胶作业有所恢复，岛内原料供应环比增量，虽未来将受 到台风天气影响，但受制于订单及利润空间一般，当地加工厂对原料补库情绪谨慎。近期青岛港 口库存延续降库，降幅幅度较上期稍有缩窄，其中保税库去库幅度大于预期，一般贸易库出现小 幅累库。下游大多补标胶为主，带动保税库提货量增加，去库幅度超预期，短时随着下游逐渐提 货到厂，一般贸易库存存去库预期。需求方面，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率窄幅波动 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.01%. The price of the US cotton December contract increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.09%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract decreased, with a decline of about 0.55% [5][11][22] - The US 2025/26 annual upland cotton net export signing volume increased, while the shipment volume decreased. The estimated total cotton output in China in 2025 is 721.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, hitting a new high since 2013. With new cotton being sparsely available and the downstream peak season not evident, the short-term support for cotton prices has weakened [5] - Operationally, the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract should be treated with a short-term bearish mindset. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory levels [6][7] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market US Cotton Market - As of September 9, 2025, the non-commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,171 lots, a decrease of 301 lots from the previous week; the non-commercial short positions were 121,505 lots, an increase of 2,821 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 51,334 lots, an increase of 3,122 lots from the previous week [11] US Cotton Export and Spot Price - As of the week ending September 4, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current year was 129,600 bales, a 47% decrease from the previous week and a 33% decrease from the average level of the previous four weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 79.1 cents per pound, an increase of 1.25 cents per pound from the previous week [16] Futures Market - The net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were -19,591 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures were -477 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,232, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 0 [28][34] Spot Market - As of September 19, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,283 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,765 yuan per ton [42][53] Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost and Profit - As of September 18, the import cotton sliding duty price was 14,305 yuan per ton, an increase of 129 yuan per ton from the previous week; the import cotton quota price was 13,527 yuan per ton, an increase of 208 yuan per ton from the previous week. The estimated profit of imported cotton sliding duty was 1,005 yuan per ton, a decrease of 105 yuan per ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton quota was 1,783 yuan per ton, a decrease of 184 yuan per ton from the previous week [57][60] Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply Side - As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. As of July 31, the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.85% [63] - In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 66.67%. As of July, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, with no month-on-month change [70] Middle - End Industry - In July, the yarn inventory days of textile enterprises were 27.67 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.43%. The grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.95% [73] Terminal Consumption - In July 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1160.4009 million US dollars, a month-on-month decrease of 3.69%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1516.1759 million US dollars, a month-on-month decrease of 0.69% [79] - As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles were 837.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 12.73%; the cumulative year-on-year increase was 2.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.45% [83] Group 4: Options and Stock Market Options Market - The report mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week, but specific data is not provided [84] Stock Market - The report shows the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Tunhe Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (600359), but specific data is not provided [87]

期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.19」 工业硅多晶硅市场周报 双硅短期暂无驱动，消息影响依旧持续 研究员:黄闻杰 「 周度要点小结」 u 行情回顾： 本周工业硅上涨6.4%，本周多晶硅下跌1.7%。本周工业硅期货市场呈现上扬走势，主要原因在于反内卷目 前来说压降了工业硅产量，在本周会议情况下，工业硅开始逐步向上，整体呈现冲高态势，本周多晶硅维持小幅震荡， 市场并未有更多消息影响。 u 行情展望：工业硅方面，从基本面来看，供应端，本周四工业硅现货市场价格较上周五相比以震荡上行为主，工业硅 本期开工率在33.12%，环比上周下降1.91%，西南地区存在减产预期，部分企业已承受不住利润亏损的压力，已把减产 提上日程，西南多数厂家表示会开工到10月底，之后暂无复产计划。西北地区存在电价优势，厂家开工稳定，其中伊 犁地区开工较为乐观，大厂存在复产预期，虽开工降低，但整体供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract 2510 rising by 0.65%. After the Fed's interest - rate cut announcement, the overall trend was volatile and upward [4]. - The market has digested the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The expectation of continuous interest rate cuts has cooled, and risk appetite has declined. Some funds have taken profits, weakening the support for lead prices. The preliminary progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations has a positive impact on market sentiment [4]. - On the supply side, some primary lead smelting enterprises in regions like Henan and Inner Mongolia are in the centralized maintenance stage. The raw material market is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee of lead concentrates continues to decline. The production of primary lead decreases this week. The production of recycled lead is restricted by environmental inspections, low waste battery recycling efficiency, and the off - season of battery scrapping [4]. - On the demand side, the demand for automotive starting batteries is relatively stable. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is warming up, and the demand in emerging energy - storage fields is promising. However, the overall demand has not increased significantly, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state [4]. - In terms of inventory, both domestic and foreign lead inventories, as well as the number of warehouse receipts, have decreased, indicating that demand has effectively driven inventory reduction. - Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead decreases slightly, and demand increases slowly. The lead price is expected to consolidate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate upward in the range of 16,800 - 17,300, with a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend this week, with the main contract 2510 rising by 0.65% [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut. The supply of primary and recycled lead decreases, while the demand in the lead - acid battery field is expected to increase. The overall demand has not increased significantly, and downstream enterprises are still waiting and seeing. The inventory has decreased, and it is recommended to go long on dips [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate upward in the range of 16,800 - 17,300, with a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400 [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: The domestic futures price of Shanghai lead rose slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio increased. As of September 18, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures price was $1,938 per ton, the active - contract lead futures price was 17,145 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.71 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: Both domestic and foreign futures premiums and discounts weakened. As of September 11, 2025, the domestic futures premium and discount was - 120 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $44.05 per ton [12][14]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and foreign lead inventories and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. As of September 18, 2025, the total lead inventory was 5,960 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons; the LME lead inventory was 222,675 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons; the number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 49,375 tons, a decrease of 10,362 tons [28][33]. 3.3 Industry Situation Supply Side - **Primary Lead**: As of September 11, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 81.52%, a decrease of 3.67% from last week; the weekly output was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from last week [19]. - **Recycled Lead**: As of September 11, 2025, the domestic production of recycled lead in major production areas was 13,200 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week; the average capacity utilization rate was 34.85%, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous week. It is expected to recover next week [23][26]. - **Trade**: In August 2025, the refined lead export volume was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The refined lead import volume was 3,417 tons. The lead alloy import volume was 12,784 tons. The lead concentrate import volume was about 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 28.3%. The total lead ingot import volume was 13,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,940 tons (106.70%) and a year - on - year decrease of 9,730 tons (41.98%) [37]. Demand Side - **Processing Fee**: As of September 11, 2025, the national average processing fee of lead concentrates was 370 yuan per ton, and the average monthly processing fee of imported lead concentrates (Pb60) was - $90 per thousand tons [41]. - **Automobile Sales**: In August 2025, the total automobile sales were 2.857 million, a month - on - month increase of 10.18% and a year - on - year increase of 16.4%. The sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all increased. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of the total new - car sales in August and 45.5% from January to August [46]. - **Battery Price**: As of September 18, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead - acid batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per set, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 20,150 yuan per ton [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may be supported by a slight reduction in supply and a gradual warming of demand. The Fed's September interest - rate meeting announced a 25 - basis - point rate cut, and the dot - plot implies further rate cuts. Domestically, policies to expand service consumption were introduced. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the profit of smelters may be affected, leading to a possible reduction in refined copper supply. The decline in copper prices has boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the pre - holiday inventory - building demand has increased domestic demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined weekly, with a weekly change of - 1.42% and an amplitude of 2.5%. The closing price of the main contract was 79,910 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Situation**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot - plot implies a total of 75 - basis - point cuts this year and 25 - basis - point cuts next year [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce policies to expand service consumption [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The copper concentrate TC spot index is negative, and the supply of copper ore is tight. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the decline in copper prices restricts smelter profits, so domestic refined copper supply is expected to converge. The decline in copper prices boosts downstream purchasing, and pre - holiday inventory - building demand increases domestic demand, leading to a slight reduction in social inventory [4]. - **Strategy**: Light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of September 19, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 385 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 79,910 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,150 yuan/ton, and the position was 116,552 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 70,324 lots [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 19, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 79,990 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,130 yuan/ton [15]. - **Cross - Month Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the cross - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton [15]. - **Premium**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0 US dollars/ton [21]. - **Position**: As of the latest data, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 14,204 lots, a decrease of 6,666 lots compared with last week [21]. - **Implied Volatility**: As of September 19, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main contract at - the - money options fell to around the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.7497, a week - on - week increase of 0.0258 [26]. 3.3. Industrial Situation 3.3.1. Upstream Situation - **Copper Concentrate Price**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 70,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 960 yuan/ton [29]. - **Copper Scrap Processing Fee**: As of the latest data this week, the southern copper scrap processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [29]. - **Copper Ore Import**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 18.41% [35]. - **Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference**: As of the latest data this week, the refined - scrap copper price difference (including tax) was 1,807.21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 414.21 yuan/ton [35]. - **Global Copper Ore Production**: As of June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrate was 1,916 thousand tons, a decrease of 81 thousand tons from May, a decline of 4.06%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrate was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May [40]. - **Port Inventory**: As of the latest data, the copper concentrate inventory in seven domestic ports was 574,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,000 tons [40]. 3.3.2. Supply Side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from July, a growth rate of 2.44%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 16.06%. As of June 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 45 thousand tons from May, a growth rate of 1.89%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 83.5%, an increase of 3.7% from May [45]. - **Refined Copper Import**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 12.05%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss was 160.89 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 151.67 yuan/ton [50][51]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory decreased by 5,075 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 4,719 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 6,278 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 156,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons [54]. 3.3.3. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 52,600 tons from July, a growth rate of 2.42%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from July, a decline of 10.42%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 2.38% [60]. - **Power Grid Investment**: As of July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 3.37% and 12.49% respectively [66]. - **Household Appliance Production**: As of August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 1.6%, 12.3%, 2.5%, - 0.5%, and - 3.2% respectively [66]. - **Real Estate Investment**: As of August 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 6.030919 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.56% [72]. - **Integrated Circuit Production**: As of August 2025, the cumulative production of integrated circuits was 342,912,327,000 pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% and a month - on - month increase of 16.42% [72]. 3.3.4. Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG, the supply of refined copper is in excess. As of June 2025, the global monthly supply - demand balance of refined copper showed a surplus of 36 thousand tons. According to WBMS, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of June 2025 was 46,500 tons [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. In the short term, institutional behavior, expectations of incremental policies, and changes in the capital market are the main driving factors. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue in August economic data, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly, with yields expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [97][98] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, and T contracts increased, while that of the TL contract decreased. The open interests of all TS, TF, T, and TL contracts increased [13][17][23][31] - **Performance of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of some deliverable bonds changed, such as the 30 - year 210005 IB falling 0.14 and the 10 - year 220017 IB rising 0.05 [13] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales reached 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. The Sino - US economic and trade leaders held talks and reached a basic framework consensus on some issues [34] - **Overseas News**: US retail sales in August were 732.01 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The initial jobless claims were 231,000, a significant drop. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25% [10][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year contract main contracts widened slightly. The 10 - year and 30 - year contract inter - period spreads widened significantly, the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract inter - period spread widened [44][48][52] - **Treasury Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased. The yields of treasury bonds due in 1 - 7 years changed between - 1 and 2 basis points, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose by about 0.4 and 1 basis points to 1.80% and 2.10% respectively [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds widened slightly [73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits, with 1264.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.50% [77] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1708.793 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1190.265 billion yuan, and a net financing of 518.528 billion yuan [81] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1128, with a cumulative depreciation of 109 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB weakened [86] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds oscillated upward, and the VIX index increased [91] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, industrial growth, social retail, and export growth slowed down, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. Social financing growth declined slightly, and credit growth was weak. The economic recovery has slowed down since July, and the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and macro - policies need to boost domestic demand [97] - **Overseas Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased significantly, but overall employment growth slowed down. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October increased [97] - **Bond Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities [98]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the pig market persists, with supply exceeding demand, causing downward pressure on pig prices. In the short - term, the supply side has pressure, and the demand growth is limited. However, it is expected that the supply - demand pattern will gradually improve in the second half of 2026, which will support long - term prices. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations in pig futures [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices broke through downward, with the main contract 2511 falling 3.24% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply side has pressure in the near - term. The demand has slightly recovered but the growth is limited. The oversupply situation continues, leading to weak price performance. It is expected that the supply - demand pattern will improve in the second half of 2026, supporting long - term prices. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations in pig futures [6]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Movement**: The main contract 2511 fell 3.24% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures was 25,804 lots, an increase of 10,059 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 428, unchanged from last week [16]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2511 and lh2601 contracts was - 525, and the spread between lh2511 and lh2603 contracts was - 15 [21]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Base Difference**: The base difference of the September contract was - 85 yuan/ton, and that of the November contract was 75 yuan/ton this week [26]. - **Spot Price**: The national average pig price was 12.97 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.52 yuan/kg from last week and 6.22% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and a 1.93% decrease from the same period last month [33]. - **Pork and Sow Price**: On September 11, the national average pork price was 24.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [37]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [42]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the sow inventory was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month and a 0.025% decrease year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. In August, the sow inventory of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 0.83% month - on - month and increased by 1.86% year - on - year. The inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 5.92% year - on - year [47]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In August, the pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year. The inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.7035 million heads, an increase of 2.56% month - on - month and 23.49% year - on - year. The slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July was 473,700 heads, a decrease of 1.44% month - on - month and an increase of 54.30% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs this week was 123.51 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg from last week [58]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profit**: As of September 19, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 199.31 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 37.38 yuan/head. The breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was a loss of 24.44 yuan/head, a decrease of 41.28 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was 0.17 yuan/head, an increase of 0.19 yuan/head week - on - week, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.54 yuan/head [63]. - **Import Volume**: In August, China's pork import volume was 80,000 tons, a 11.11% year - on - year decrease. From January to August, the cumulative pork import volume was 710,000 tons, a 1.43% year - on - year increase [68]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of September 19, the white - striped chicken price was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of September 18, the average national price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.42 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 from last week [73]. - **Feed Situation**: As of September 18, the soybean meal price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2360.59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.49 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of September 19, the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index closed at 898.03, a 1.84% decrease from last week. The price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. In August 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.9272 million tons, an increase of 99,900 tons month - on - month [78][82][86]. - **CPI**: As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [90]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Inventory**: In the 38th week, the slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 31.77%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from last week and higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen product storage rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [93]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a 5.32% increase from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 44.957 billion yuan, a 2.1% year - on - year increase [98]. 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [99]