Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The Xinjiang grey jujube main - producing area has temperatures between 15°C - 31°C, and the jujube trees are in the sugar - increasing period. There may be light rain in mid - to late September. The weekly physical inventory of 36 sample points as of September 11, 2025, decreased by 89 tons week - on - week (0.95%) and increased by 78.32% year - on - year. The arrival volume in the sales areas is low, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. The contradiction between supply and demand has not been effectively alleviated, and the market is still seeking a direction in a dynamic balance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for jujube is 10,865 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 141,102 lots, up 7,784 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 5,247 lots, down 270 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 9,126, down 62; the total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 93, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The prices of jujube in various regions are mostly stable, with the exception of the Hebei jujube special - grade price, which decreased by 0.09 yuan/kg to 10.4 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 606.9 million tons, an increase of 318.7 million tons; the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 9,321 tons, down 89 tons week - on - week; the monthly jujube export volume is 1,784,164 kg, an increase of 19,057 kg; the cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 18,899,838 kg, an increase of 1,784,164 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of jujube by Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year jujube production growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Hebei Cuierzhuang market received 3 trucks of jujube, with reference prices of 10.60 yuan/kg for special - grade and 9.80 yuan/kg for first - grade, and downstream buyers purchased as needed [2]. - The Guangdong Ruyifang market received 5 trucks of jujube, with stable spot prices and average trading volume as merchants purchased as needed [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually reflected. After the supply prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene are lowered, the spot offers gradually decline, which may drive some downstream enterprises to gradually stock up. The inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises may decrease slightly [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly. Most enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have returned to normal levels, driving up the capacity utilization rate. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and make up for previous order gaps. The overall capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly [2]. - The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,705 yuan/ton, and the position volume of the main contract is 18,785, a decrease of 2,274 [2]. - The spread between synthetic rubber contracts 10 - 11 is - 5 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,970 tons [2]. - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies show different changes, with some remaining unchanged and some decreasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. b. Spot Market - The prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions have changes, with some unchanged and some decreasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Northeast Asian ethylene, naphtha, and butadiene show different changes, with some prices decreasing [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.12 million tons/week, and the capacity utilization rate is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 5,350 tons, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units increased by 0.54 percentage points to 50.64% [2]. d. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points [2]. - The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 47 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is 3.45 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - The operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires also increased [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong show different changes, with the inventory days of semi - steel tires increasing slightly [2]. e. Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 0.26 million tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 5.69 percentage points month - on - month and decreased by 7.31 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 5.57 percentage points month - on - month and increased by 4.23 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber output increased by 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some devices had short - term maintenance, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises increased [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - From September 5th to 11th, China's PE production decreased by 3.12% week-on-week to 612,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.51 percentage points to 78.04%. The average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 1.1% week-on-week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 3.9%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 8.03% to 487,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 2.44% to 546,600 tons, with little total inventory pressure [2]. - This week, some devices such as Jinghai Chemical and Guoneng Xinjiang will restart, and some devices such as Jilin Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical are planned to be shut down for maintenance. Production and capacity utilization are expected to rise month-on-month. The loss of PE device maintenance in September is expected to increase, but considering the expected commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE device, the industry's supply pressure is difficult to improve [2]. - The agricultural film has entered the peak season, and orders have increased sharply. The demand for packaging films is driven by domestic Mid - Autumn Festival, National Day, and overseas Christmas stocking, with room for order growth [2]. - In the short term, the impact of the Palestine - Israel and Russia - Ukraine geopolitical conflicts on costs is limited. OPEC+ production increases and the seasonal weakening of US fuel demand put pressure on international oil prices. Benefiting from the upcoming new round of key industry stable - growth policies, industrial products mainly rose during the day. Technically, the daily K - line of L2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 7290 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene was 7,232 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,232 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7,252 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,269 yuan/ton, up 219 yuan [2]. - The trading volume was 264,026 lots, up 19,671 lots; the open interest was 554,975 lots, down 6,135 lots [2]. - The September - January spread was 37, up 156; the long position of the top 20 futures holders was 400,733 lots, up 1,699 lots; the short position was 442,335 lots, down 2,528 lots; the net long position was - 41,602 lots, up 4,227 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,221.3 yuan/ton, down 26.96 yuan; in East China, it was 7,322.38 yuan/ton, down 17.62 yuan [2]. - The basis was 52.3, up 13.04 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.43 US dollars/barrel, down 0.56 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 598.5 US dollars/ton, down 5.5 US dollars [2]. - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 851 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 78.04%, down 2.51 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film was 51.3%, up 0.82 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.67%, up 1.34 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 24.12%, up 3.94 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 6.41%, down 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.3%, down 0.13 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 9.75%, up 0.06 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 9.74%, up 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 5th to 11th, China's PE production totaled 612,800 tons, a 3.12% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate of PE production enterprises was 78.04%, a 2.51 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period [2]. - From September 5th to 11th, the average operating rate of China's PE downstream products increased by 1.1% compared with the previous period [2]. - As of September 10th, the inventory of China's PE production enterprises was 487,000 tons, a 8.03% increase from the previous period; as of September 12th, the inventory of PE social sample warehouses was 546,600 tons, a 2.44% decrease from the previous period [2].

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 烧碱产业日报 2025-09-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2571 | 11 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 110751 | -8105 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -13393 | 2772 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 279647 | -59684 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2571 | 11 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2660 | 15 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -13393 | 2772 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 845 | -25 烧碱 ...

尿素产业日报 2025-09-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1683 | 20 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -48 | 7 7220 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 284978 | -15607 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -46633 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 8613 | -234 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1670 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1650 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1640 | -20 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -43 | -40 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 396.5 | -3.5 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 423.5 | 8.5 | | 产业情况 ...

态，以储备"国庆节"前后库存，以及弥补前期订单缺口，整体产能利用率或以小幅波动为主。ru2601合 约短线预计在15850-16300区间波动，nr2511合约短线预计在12600-13000区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-09-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 175 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15995 | 12710 | 155 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 15 20号胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | -5 | -40 | 5 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 20 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - A-shares' major indices mostly closed higher, with the market entering the macro data verification phase during the performance and policy vacuum period. August economic data remained under pressure, with real estate significantly dragging down fixed - asset investment and the marginal weakening of the trade - in policy pressuring social retail. However, previous financial data indicated a shift from excess savings to increased consumption, and the Fed's potential rate cut would provide room for domestic policy easing. Therefore, stock indices still have long - term upward potential, but poor economic data short - term pressures the market. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contracts Prices**: IF main contract (2509) was at 4527.8 (+2.0↑), IC main contract (2509) at 7114.2 (-38.2↓), IH main contract (2509) at 2962.4 (-7.4↓), IM main contract (2509) at 7368.6 (-32.2↓) [2] - **Futures Spreads**: IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1565.4 (+10.8↑), IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2586.4 (-30.4↓) [2] - **Futures Seasonal Spreads**: IF current - season minus current - month was -30.8 (-4.6↓), IH current - season minus current - month was 0.2 (-0.6↓), IC current - season minus current - month was -174.8 (-23.6↓), IM current - season minus current - month was -225.4 (-6.2↓) [2] - **Futures Net Positions**: IF top 20 net positions were -28,938.00 (-1367.0↓), IH top 20 net positions were -18,383.00 (+136.0↑), IC top 20 net positions were -25,779.00 (+937.0↑), IM top 20 net positions were -47,196.00 (+58.0↑) [2] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Underlying Index Prices**: CSI 300 was at 4533.06 (+11.1↑), SSE 50 was at 2962.6 (-5.9↓), CSI 500 was at 7137.4 (-10.4↓), CSI 1000 was at 7415.6 (-7.3↓) [2] - **Basis**: IF main contract basis was -5.3 (-6.5↓), IH main contract basis was -0.2 (-0.3↓), IC main contract basis was -23.2 (-15.4↓), IM main contract basis was -47.0 (-16.9↓) [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment Data - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume (daily) was 23,031.80 billion yuan (-2451.32↓), margin trading balance (previous trading day) was 23,515.70 billion yuan (+111.45↑), north - bound trading volume (previous trading day) was 3112.83 billion yuan (-39.84↓) [2] - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks (daily) was 35.28% (-0.22↓), Shibor (daily) was 1.408% (+0.041↑), IO at - the - money call option closing price (2509) was 29.00 (-3.00↓), IO at - the - money put option closing price (2509) was 51.20 (-5.40↓) [2] 3.4 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In August, the year - on - year actual growth of above - scale industrial added value was 5.2% (expected 5.7%, previous 5.7%); social consumer goods retail sales were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% (expected 3.8%, previous 3.7%); from January to August, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, with private fixed - asset investment down 2.3% year - on - year; from January to August, real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, down 12.9% year - on - year; in August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - **Market Performance**: A - share major indices closed with mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.51%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets significantly declined, and over 3300 stocks fell. Overseas, the US August PPI unexpectedly turned negative month - on - month, which supported the Fed's September rate cut [2] 3.5 Key Data to Watch - September 16, 20:30: US August import and export price indices, retail sales, and core retail sales - September 18, 2:00: Fed interest rate decision - September 18, 19:00: Bank of England interest rate decision - September 19, 10:47: Bank of Japan interest rate decision [3]

单有所释放；同时持货商出货意愿较高，国内市场保持去库趋势，现货升水持稳。技术面，持仓增量价格 调整，多空交投分歧，关注MA5支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢回调轻仓做多。 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 免责声明 不锈钢产业日报 2025-09-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 13070 | 120 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -110 | -20 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -15039 | 1759 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 133829 | 7543 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 96349 | -600 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13800 | 100 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The view maintains a cautious and bullish stance, suggesting interval band trading and being aware of the callback pressure after the market fully digests the interest rate cut expectations [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continues its volatile and bullish trend. Soft US economic data continuously supports the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and the market trading sentiment is optimistic, with speculative buying demand continuously flowing in. The year - on - year growth rate of the US CPI in August met market expectations, consumer prices rose moderately, and the transmission of tariffs to the inflation side was controllable. The silver price continued to hit new historical highs driven by interest rate cut expectations, while the upward trend of the gold price has converged. In the short term, the buying demand at the key support levels in the precious metals market is still relatively strong, and the optimistic trading sentiment in the market may continue until the next Fed interest rate meeting [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 831.6 yuan/gram, down 2.62 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 10,017 yuan/kilogram, down 18 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 104,349 hands, down 4,918 hands; those of Shanghai silver were 204,407 hands, down 14,921 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 168,544 hands, down 1,994 hands; those of Shanghai silver were 123,855 hands, down 2,553 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 53,226 kilograms, up 276 kilograms; that of silver was 1,243,481 kilograms, down 3,088 kilograms [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network was 829.1 yuan/gram, down 1.7 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9,975 yuan/kilogram, down 13 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 2.5 yuan/gram, up 0.92 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 42 yuan/kilogram, up 5 yuan [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 974.8 tons, down 3.15 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15,069.6 tons, down 67.77 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC (weekly) were 261,740 contracts, up 12,210 contracts; those of silver were 53,937 contracts, down 1,986 contracts. The total supply of gold (quarterly) was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver (annually) was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold (quarterly) was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver (annually) was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.48%, up 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.96%, up 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.48%, down 1.96 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was also 20.48%, down 1.96 percentage points [3] 3.5 Industry News - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, believing that inflation pressure has been effectively curbed and the euro - zone economy remains robust. ECB President Lagarde said the inflation reduction process in the euro - zone is over, and trade uncertainty has significantly decreased. Traders reduced their bets on the bank's easing policies, suggesting the interest rate cut cycle has ended. There is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, lowering the policy interest rate range to 4% - 4.25%, and an extremely small possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. BlackRock executive Rick Rieder is among the top candidates for the next Fed chairman. Rieder has said the Fed should cut interest rates by 50 basis points. The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September was 55.4, the lowest since May, with an expected value of 58. The preliminary value of the 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.9%, rising for two consecutive months. The Russian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points from 18% to 17%, while the market generally expected a 200 - basis - point cut. The Russian central bank emphasized that future cuts will depend on whether inflation continues to slow [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) -25 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 8304 | | 90526 | 4663 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 2963 | -3258 | | | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | | | 2.3 | 0 | | | | 4 | 0 | | | | | 元/斤) 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | | | 4 | 0 | 3.7 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) 0.01 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) | 5128.51 9.76 | 168.34 | 9.38 | 0 | | | 全国苹果冷库 ...