股指期货全景日报 2025/12/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2603） IH主力合约（2603） IC主力合约（2603） | 4571.4 3025.6 7133.2 | +5.4↑ IF次主力合约（2601） +6.6↑ IH次主力合约（2601） +3.2↑ IC次主力合约（2601） | 4598.8 3024.2 7223.6 | +6.8↑ +5.0↑ +3.2↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 7197.4 | -11.0↓ IM次主力合约（2601） | 7343.0 | -11.6↓ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1574.6 | +2.2↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2624.8 | +3.4↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 119.4 | -18.0↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4199.4 | +5.6↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2744.2 | -14.6↓ IM-I ...

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 沪铜产业日报 2025/12/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) 93,930.00 | | -390.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 11,967.50 | +42.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -70.00 | -20.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 241,093.00 | -5697.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) -33,302.00 | -996.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | | 157,750.00 | -2650.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) 95,805.00 | +6416.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | | 51,750.00 | -4700.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) 49,543. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short - term. The short - term domestic methanol enterprise total inventory may still show a slight accumulation. The port inventory had a narrow de - stocking last week, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to increase slightly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2156 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 34 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 855,384 lots, an increase of 8,240 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 130,715 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 6,748, unchanged [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2135 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1915 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - Northwest price difference was 220 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract was - 21 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 248 US dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 253 euros/ton, a daily increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 72 US dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price was 3.99 US dollars/million British thermal units, a daily decrease of 0.04 US dollars [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 79.96 tons (weekly), a decrease of 3.1 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 41.92 tons (weekly), an increase of 1.54 tons. The methanol import profit was 5.19 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.15 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 391,100 tons (weekly), an increase of 38,300 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate was 90.52% (weekly), an increase of 0.71 percentage points [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 42.58% (weekly), an increase of 1.09 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.09% (weekly), a decrease of 1.89 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate was 76.51% (weekly), an increase of 2.62 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate was 68.9% (weekly), a decrease of 0.85 percentage points; the olefin operating rate was 89.51% (weekly), a decrease of 0.44 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 1110 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 36 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 13.67% (daily), a decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.83% (daily), a decrease of 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.77% (daily), an increase of 0.61 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.77% (daily), an increase of 0.62 percentage points [3]. 3.7. Industry News - As of December 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 39.11 tons, an increase of 3.83 tons from the previous period, a 10.86% increase; the sample enterprise order backlog was 22.04 tons, an increase of 1.30 tons from the previous period, a 6.25% increase. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 121.88 tons, a decrease of 1.56 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 3.10 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 1.54 tons. The recent domestic methanol maintenance and production reduction involved capacity loss was less than the capacity output of the restored production, and the overall output increased. The operating rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 89.49% as of December 18, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points from the previous period [3].

研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | 2025/12/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 1014.240 | 13.4↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | 16441 | +231.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 199,893.00 | | -2397.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 16,247.00 | -1180.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 276,418.00 | | -2375.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,230,157.00 | -474555.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 93711 | | 1995↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 899,663 | -1805↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 1006.87 | | 14 ...

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 铝类产业日报 2025/12/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22,195.00 | -25.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,520.00 | +22.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -125.00 | -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -109.00 | +2.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 301,815.00 | -12484.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 135,956.00 | -15251.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 74,400.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 197,566.00 | -61270.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range shock state, and investors can try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active contract for eggs is 2,876 yuan/500 kilograms, down 12 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for eggs is - 44,712 lots, up 4,875 lots [2] - The monthly spread (5 - 9) of egg futures is - 505 yuan/500 kilograms, up 7 yuan; the futures open interest of the active contract for eggs is 190,357 lots, up 4,038 lots [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 169 yuan/500 kilograms, up 2 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 114.24 (2015 = 100), down 1.02; the culled laying hen index nationwide is 114.44 (2015 = 100), down 10.19 [2] - The average price of layer chicks in the main producing areas is 2.8 yuan/chick, unchanged; the new chick index nationwide is 67.09 (2015 = 100), down 9.56 [2] - The average price of layer compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the layer farming profit is - 0.36 yuan/hen, unchanged [2] - The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 7.9 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan; the average age of culled chickens nationwide is 510 days, up 3 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.53 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.83 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.96 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.12 days, up 0.02 days [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1 day, down 0.01 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13,394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7,023 tons, down 104 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main producing areas remained unchanged from the previous day [2] - The continuous losses of the farming end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens culled. The laying hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market atmosphere has improved slightly [2] Viewpoint Summary - The spot price remains low, the farming end is still in a loss state, and the market's enthusiasm for replenishment is poor, which is beneficial to the long - term price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, the culling of old hens has slowed down slightly, and the high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - L2605 oscillated with a slight upward trend, closing at 6,296 yuan/ton. Last week, new maintenance devices were added, leading to a decline in PE production and capacity utilization. The downstream开工率 of PE decreased, and factory and social inventories accumulated, slowing down the overall inventory reduction. The costs of oil - and coal - based processes decreased, and profits improved slightly. With no new maintenance or restart devices this week, the impact of previous shutdown capacity may lead to a further decline in PE production and capacity utilization. From December to January next year, continuous capacity release is expected, and the impact of device maintenance is relatively low, so the industry is expected to remain in a high - supply stage. Due to the off - season of agricultural film demand and limited follow - up demand for packaging film, it is difficult to form demand support. Considering the significant increase in international oil prices due to the deterioration of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, the short - term L2605 is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 6,296 yuan/ton, with a change of 56; the 1 - month contract was 6,246 yuan/ton, up 60; the 5 - month contract was 6,296 yuan/ton, up 56; the 9 - month contract was 6,335 yuan/ton, up 55 [2]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume was 666,834 lots, down 2,061; the open interest was 581,559 lots, down 24,483 [2]. - Spread and position data: The 1 - 5 spread was - 50, up 4; the long position of the top 20 futures holders was 486,759 lots, down 15,078; the short position was 588,512 lots, down 20,631; the net long position was - 101,753 lots, up 5,553 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE prices: The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,323.91 yuan/ton, down 63.91; in East China, it was 6,397.21 yuan/ton, down 93.03 [2]. - Basis: The basis was 27.91, down 119.92 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Naphtha prices: The FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore was 57.51 US dollars per barrel, up 0.84; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 539.88 US dollars per ton, up 9 [2]. - Ethylene prices: The CFR middle - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 726 US dollars per ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 746 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - PE production and capacity utilization: From December 12th to 18th, the total PE production in China was 679,600 tons, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of PE production enterprises was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Downstream开工率: The开工率 of PE packaging film was 48.96% (weekly), down 0.63; the开工率 of PE pipes was 31% (weekly), unchanged; the开工率 of PE agricultural film was 45.18% (weekly), down 1.22 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 13.82%, up 0.16; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.99%, down 0.19; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.5%, up 1.69; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.48%, up 1.69 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Inventory: As of December 17th, the sample inventory of Chinese PE production enterprises was 488,700 tons, an increase of 3.65% from the previous period; as of December 12th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 468,700 tons, an increase of 2.67% from the previous period [2]. - Cost and profit: From December 3rd to 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 2.86% to 6,937 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 182.71 yuan/ton to - 287.29 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 3.88% to 6,575 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 25.71 yuan/ton to - 41.14 yuan/ton [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term urea factory order receipts have improved, and there is a possibility of further destocking due to partial reserve restocking and factory delivery requirements. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,670 - 1,730 yuan/ton [3]. - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline steadily due to environmental warnings in some areas and limited new orders. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continues to decline, with destocking mainly in North, Northeast, and Northwest China, and there is still a destocking trend in the short - term [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1,721 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread is 16 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6,137 (the meaning of this change value needs further clarification). The main contract's open interest is 179,049 lots, an increase of 9,875 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 21,377. The exchange warehouse receipts are 10,532, a decrease of 349 [3]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui remain unchanged, and the price in Jiangsu is up 20 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remain stable. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 11 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 13.8 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons compared to the previous week; the enterprise inventory is 117.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.45 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.69%, a decrease of 1.16 percentage points. The daily output is 195,100 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons. The export volume is 1.2 billion tons, a decrease of 17% [3]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42%. The destocking was mainly in North, Northeast, and Northwest China. As of December 18, the port inventory was 13.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.20%. The urea production decreased slightly due to new device overhauls, and the production is expected to increase slightly in the future [3]. Viewpoint Summary - The short - term urea factory order receipts have improved, and there may be further destocking. The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline steadily. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continues to decline, and the UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,670 - 1,730 yuan/ton [3]. Tip for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - demand game in the pig industry continues, and pig prices mainly show a volatile trend. The 2603 contract of live pigs closed up 0.71%, with short - term moving averages extending horizontally and overall fluctuating at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 11,415 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the main contract position was 161,853 lots, up 326 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 863 lots, up 40 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 46,238 lots, up 292 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian, Guangdong Yunfu remained unchanged at 11,600 yuan/ton and 12,000 yuan/ton respectively, while the price in Jilin Siping increased by 100 yuan to 11,100 yuan/ton. The main basis of live pigs was 185 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Pig inventory was 43.68 million heads, up 1.233 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 3.99 million heads, down 45,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI was 0.7%, up 0.5 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn was 2,342.94 yuan/ton, down 4.71 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 880.94, down 0.54; the monthly output of feed was 29.779 million tons, up 209,000 tons; the price of二元能繁母猪 was 1,432 yuan/head, down 5 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 189.5 yuan/head, up 51.19 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was - 130.88 yuan/head, up 32.46 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 60,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 14.1 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 3.834 million heads, up 250,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On December 23, 2025, the daily national pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 284,472 heads, a decrease of 2.72% from the previous day. Large - scale farms were slaughtering normally, and due to the impact of the epidemic, some areas actively slaughtered standard pigs, increasing the overall supply. On the demand side, curing and sausage - making activities were underway, but after the Winter Solstice stocking ended, demand declined slightly [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain loose as the narrowing speed of the spot supply - demand gap is slow. The BZ2603 contract is expected to show an oscillating trend in the short - term, with technical support around 5360 and resistance around 5580 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures contract was 5425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; the settlement price was 5452 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan. The trading volume was 13,265 lots, an increase of 1,236 lots; the open interest was 23,659 lots, an increase of 842 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5325 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North China market, it was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northeast region, it was 5156 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan. The mainstream price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu was 5325 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanxi, it was 5050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea was 659 dollars/ton, an increase of 3 dollars; the CFR mid - price in China was 666 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.07 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 62.79 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.49 dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 539.88 dollars/ton, an increase of 9 dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 74.94%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the weekly output was 43.66 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 26 million tons, unchanged. The production cost of pure benzene was 5161.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.2 yuan; the production profit was 163 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 69.13%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 69.2%, a decrease of 5.37 percentage points; of phenol was 74.93%, a decrease of 4.54 percentage points; of aniline was 61.35%, a decrease of 14.59 percentage points; of adipic acid was 59.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From December 13th to 19th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.17% to 74.94%, and that of hydrogenated benzene increased by 3.05% to 55.99%, with a slight increase in domestic pure benzene output. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 2.82% to 68.49%. As of December 22nd, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 27.3 million tons, a 5% increase from last week. The profit of petroleum benzene increased by 55 yuan/ton to 163 yuan/ton [2] 3.7 Outlook - This week, petroleum benzene plants will mainly operate stably, and some hydrogenated benzene plants will increase their loads, with a projected slight increase in domestic pure benzene output. The restart of a large styrene plant is postponed, with limited growth in the operating rate. The caprolactam industry will continue to cut production to maintain prices, with a projected further reduction in the plant load. The plant loads of aniline and adipic acid are expected to increase slightly, but the impact is relatively limited [2]