研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） 120,360.00 | | +5980.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -141,692.00 | +5257.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） 671,573.00 | | -316.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,560.00 | +20.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） 16,651.00 | | +240.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） 99,500.00 | | +500.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 96,850.00 | +500.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） -20,860.00 | | -5480.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material supply of ferronickel is expected to contract due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines, declining nickel ore grades, tightening raw material inventories of domestic ferronickel plants, and a significant reduction in Indonesia's RKAB plan next year, which will put pressure on ferronickel production [2]. - Although stainless - steel mills' production profits have improved and the traditional peak demand season has passed, the decline in stainless - steel production is expected to be limited, and supply pressure still exists [2]. - Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and stainless - steel exports are decreasing. Market purchasing willingness is low, but the national stainless - steel social inventory is seasonally decreasing slightly [2]. - Technically, stainless - steel futures show increased volume, reduced positions, and rising prices. The bearish sentiment has declined, breaking through the key resistance of MA60. It is expected that stainless - steel futures prices will adjust strongly, with support at MA5 and the upper target at 13,100 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,905 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,375 lots, a decrease of 8,491 lots; the main contract position is 100,771 lots, a decrease of 7,250 lots [2]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity is 47,705 tons, a decrease of 607 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The SS main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 125,250 yuan/ton, up 3,450 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 570,100 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 49,0613,900 square meters, an increase of 36,623,900 square meters [2]. - The monthly excavator production is 30,900 units, a decrease of 700 units; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 行业消息 - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. In December, the 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [2]. - Trump - "appointed" Fed governor Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, there will be a recession risk. Rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 22 - 23, the Central Enterprise Leaders' Meeting was held in Beijing. Li Qiang pointed out that the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is crucial for laying the foundation and making all - out efforts to basically achieve socialist modernization. Central enterprises should align with the Party Central Committee's decisions and play important roles in infrastructure construction and ensuring the autonomy and controllability of the industrial chain [2] - On December 23, treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.07%, 0.17%, 0.26%, and 0.89% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 dropped to around 1.41%. The December LPR remained stable for seven consecutive months. The domestic economic fundamentals in November showed a marginal slowdown in industrial growth and social retail, continued negative growth in fixed - asset investment, and stable unemployment. Financial data was structurally differentiated, with the increase in social financing exceeding expectations under the boost of direct financing, but weak credit, mainly dragged down by household loans, and weak medium - and long - term investment demand from enterprises. Overseas, the US November core CPI growth was at its lowest since 2021, with mixed employment data. Overall, the domestic economic endogenous momentum still needs to be boosted. The December Central Economic Work Conference and Politburo Meeting sent positive signals, and the market expects interest rates to oscillate downward [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - T main contract closed at 108.220, up 0.26%; trading volume was 98,526, an increase of 13,433 [2] - TF main contract closed at 106.025, up 0.17%; trading volume was 78,932, an increase of 14,747 [2] - TS main contract closed at 102.526, up 0.07%; trading volume was 35,332, a decrease of 611 [2] - TL main contract closed at 112.830, up 0.89%; trading volume was 140,734, an increase of 27,611 [2] 3.1.2 Futures Spreads - TL2603 - 2606 spread was - 0.17, up 0.05; T03 - TL03 spread was - 4.61, down 0.61 [2] - T2603 - 2606 spread was 0.00, up 0.02; TF03 - T03 spread was - 2.19, down 0.07 [2] - TF2603 - 2606 spread was 0.00, up 0.00; TS03 - T03 spread was - 5.69, down 0.18 [2] - TS2603 - 2606 spread was - 0.04, up 0.00; TS03 - TF03 spread was - 3.50, down 0.10 [2] 3.1.3 Futures Positions - T main contract open interest was 241,505, an increase of 15,119. The top 20 long positions were 199,301, an increase of 10,195; the top 20 short positions were 215,566, an increase of 15,505; the net short position of the top 20 was 16,265, an increase of 5,310 [2] - TF main contract open interest was 152,762, an increase of 10,973. The top 20 long positions were 130,017, an increase of 8,449; the top 20 short positions were 148,704, an increase of 12,868; the net short position of the top 20 was 18,687, an increase of 4,419 [2] - TS main contract open interest was 78,913, an increase of 2,453. The top 20 long positions were 63,714, an increase of 1,589; the top 20 short positions were 73,422, an increase of 2,328; the net short position of the top 20 was 9,708, an increase of 739 [2] - TL main contract open interest was 145,354, an increase of 540. The top 20 long positions were 132,116, an increase of 1,311; the top 20 short positions were 142,694, an increase of 4,588; the net short position of the top 20 was 10,578, an increase of 3,277 [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Market 3.2.1 CTD Bonds - The clean prices of several CTD bonds such as 250018.IB, 220025.IB, etc. all increased to varying degrees [2] 3.2.2 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - year and 3 - year active treasury bonds remained unchanged, while yields of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds increased by 0.50bp, 0.70bp, and 0.85bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates 3.3.1 Short - term Interest Rates - The overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.2547%, down 19.53bp; the overnight Shibor was 1.2720%, unchanged [2] - The 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.3800%, up 3.00bp; the 7 - day Shibor was 1.3990%, down 1.80bp [2] - The 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6400%, up 1.00bp; the 14 - day Shibor was 1.5770%, down 3.90bp [2] 3.3.2 LPR Rates - The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2][3][4] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 59.3 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 135.3 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan [2] 3.5 Key Events and Data to Watch - On December 23 at 21:30, the US Q3 core PCE price index and Q3 real GDP data will be released [4] - On December 25, Christmas, US, Hong Kong, European, and South Korean stocks will be closed, and Brent crude oil futures trading will be suspended [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory accumulation rate has continued to expand. Overseas mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing have increased, while downstream factories are mainly digesting their own inventories, with low restocking willingness, and overall outbound shipments are lower than expected. In terms of demand, last week tire companies adjusted production flexibly, some companies controlled production, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies was weak, entering the seasonal off - peak season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, finished product inventory climbed, and under production and sales pressure, some companies had production suspension or limitation phenomena. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,290 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,405 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,885 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 146,529 lots, down 1,229 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 53,329 lots, down 1,663 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 38,999 lots, down 105 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 13,460 lots, up 1,166 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 88,730 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 57,758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 735 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,952 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 2,065 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 58.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.31 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 55.75 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 2.4 US dollars/ton, down 51.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 126,100 tons, up 35,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.13%, down 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.44%, down 0.13 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period was 41.91 days, up 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period was 46.48 days, up 0.97 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 12.96%, down 0.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.64%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.78%, up 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.79%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2]

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-23 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11175 | -55 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 103099 | -630 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -15 | 0 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The V2605 contract rose 3.02% to close at 4,738 yuan/ton. Last week, the 400,000 - ton units of Yibin Tianyuan and Hanwha Ningbo were shut down, and the 300,000 - ton unit of Zhenyang Development restarted, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The downstream PVC开工率 decreased, with the profile开工率 in a downward trend. Social inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level compared to the same period in history. The costs of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC decreased, and profits improved. This week, the 400,000 - ton unit of Yibin Tianyuan will restart, and there are no new planned shutdown units, so the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. With a small number of unit commissioning delays in December, the industry's high - operation state generally continues, resulting in high supply pressure. The end - user real estate and infrastructure sectors are in the low - season, and the开工率 of hard products such as pipes and profiles may continue the seasonal downward trend. Global PVC supply is sufficient, and overseas market competition is fierce, so export support is limited. The weak current supply - demand situation of PVC competes with the "anti - involution" support on the expected side, and it is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term. Technically, the V2605 contract should pay attention to the previous low support around 4,470 and the resistance around 4,800 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,738 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 147 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 1,874,446 lots, a week - on - week increase of 728,966 lots; the open interest was 964,843 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 5,287 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 957,177 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 27,840 lots; the short position was 1,022,488 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 23,664 lots; the net long position was - 65,311 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 4,176 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,367.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in North China, it was 2,656.67 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16.67 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2,449 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 407 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 448 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 194 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 76.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.36%. The total social inventory of PVC was 77.74 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 million tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 46.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42 million tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 4.23 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.43, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35. The cumulative value of newly started housing area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 652,939.03 million square meters, an increase of 4,359.03 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 389.8297 billion yuan, an increase of 31.191 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 16.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From December 13th to 19th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 78.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%. From December 13th to 19th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.5% week - on - week to 45.39%, among which the operating rate of pipes remained stable at 37.6%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 3.7% week - on - week to 31.43%. As of December 18th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.25% week - on - week to 1.0566 million tons [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton market is expected to see an accelerated growth in commercial inventory as the national cotton inspection volume has exceeded 5.5 million tons, and the November cotton import volume increased slightly month - on - month. The import port inventory is expected to maintain an upward trend. On the demand side, after the peak - season procurement of downstream spinning mills ended, the off - season characteristics of spinning mills are emerging, and the market shipment speed is slow. Therefore, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 14,070, up 55; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 20,110, up 60 - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 138,546, down 1,226; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 1,260, down 345 - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 785,062, up 23,519; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 23,294, up 473 - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 4,075, up 205; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 9, unchanged - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,154; China Yarn Price Index: pure cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 20,990, up 60 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,769, up 9; arrival price: Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: pure cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 21,133, down 5 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding duty (daily, yuan/ton): 13,827, down 3; arrival price: Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: pure cotton combed yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 22,306, up 78 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Data presented in the futures market section above also reflects the spot - related price indices [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,836, up 51; industrial inventory: cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton: import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 9, down 1; cotton yarn: import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 140,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1,318, up 9; commercial inventory: cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 293.06, up 190.89 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days: yarn (monthly, days): 26.12, up 1.27; inventory days: grey fabric (monthly, days): 31.97, up 0.85 - Cloth: output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 26.2, down 1.8; yarn: output: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 200.1, down 7.3 - Apparel and clothing accessories: export value: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,003,480.43, down 1,449,766.57; textile yarns, fabrics and products: export value: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,258,418.92, down 708,097.08 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility (%): 9.14, down 0.5; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility (%): 9.14, down 0.5 - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility (%): 5.26, down 0.16; cotton 60 - day historical volatility (%): 6.29, down 0.24 [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is increasing. As of December 19, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.0473 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 255,000 tons (a 5.32% increase). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 4.351 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 189,600 tons (a 4.56% increase), and that in inland areas was 304,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63,800 tons (a 26.52% increase) - According to the USDA report, in the week ending November 27, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 135,900 bales, a decrease of 8% from the previous week and 23% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 122,100 bales, a 1% increase from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The US cotton export contract volume decreased and the shipment volume increased slightly month - on - month [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - New partial plant overhauls led to a slight decline in domestic urea production. With no planned shutdowns this week and 2 - 4 shutdown plants possibly resuming production, output is expected to increase slightly considering short - term faults [3]. - Agriculture is in a short - term off - season for rigid demand, with recent reserve demand for phased replenishment, and there is still a reserve demand expectation in the Northeast [3]. - Environmental warnings in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and other places caused a slight decline in compound fertilizer operation, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer is expected to decline steadily or slightly [3]. - Urea factories' inventory continued to decline last week. Short - term receipt of orders by urea factories improved, and there may be further destocking. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1730 yuan/ton in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1698 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 16 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [3]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 169,174 lots, up 5,318 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 15,240 [3]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 10,881 sheets, down 95 sheets [3]. 现货市场 (Spot Market) - In the spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports increased by 2.5 dollars/ton [3]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 13 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - Port inventory was 13.8 million tons, up 1.5 million tons week - on - week; enterprise inventory was 117.97 million tons, down 5.45 million tons week - on - week [3]. - The urea enterprise operating rate was 80.69%, down 1.16 percentage points; the daily urea output was 195,100 tons, down 2,800 tons [3]. - Urea exports were 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the monthly output of urea was 6.00033 billion tons, up 129,060 tons [3]. 下游情况 (Downstream Situation) - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 39.37%, down 1.25 percentage points; the melamine operating rate was 58.55%, down 3.31 percentage points [3]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 140 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 36 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton [3]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 438.25 million tons, up 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 30,500 tons, down 1,700 tons [3]. Industry News - As of December 17, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 117.97 million tons, down 5.45 million tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42%. The destocking was mainly concentrated in North, Northeast and Northwest China [3]. - As of December 18, China's urea port sample inventory was 13.8 million tons, up 1.5 million tons week - on - week, a week - on - week increase of 12.20%. The port collection was in progress smoothly, and some ports received goods successively [3]. 提示关注 (Points to Note) - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output and operating rate on Thursday [3]

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-12-22 比-0.13个百分点，同比-8.67个百分点；中国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为63.61%，环比-0.94个百分点， 及预期。需求方面，上周轮胎企业灵活排产，部分企业存控产现象，国内轮胎企业产能利用率偏弱运行， 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 同比+3.72个百分点。各企业灵活排产，部分企业存控产现象，样本企业产能利用率偏弱运行。 进入季节性淡季，企业整体出货节奏偏慢，成品库存攀升，产销压力下，部分企业存停限产现象。ru2605 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 合约短线预计在15000-15650区间波动，nr2602合约短线预计在12200-12650区间波动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 15205 30 | 15 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 10 20号胶2-3价差 ...

白糖产业日报 2025-12-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5126 | 38 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 513067 | -10155 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 4479 | 868 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -85526 | 1130 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 622 | -868 | | | | 现货市场 | | 3995 | -87 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | 4042 | -61 | | | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) -114 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | | | | | 5058 | | 5121 | -79 | | | /吨) 云南昆明白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) | 5195 | /吨) -15 广西南宁 ...