2026年01月27日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 744.70 | 742.00 | 746.30 | 534.80 | 535.40 | 538.00 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 685.90 | 682.55 | 681.50 | 497.95 | 499.60 | 501.00 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 65.75 | 65.70 | 69.80 | 35.80 | 34.70 | 34.75 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | 9.68% | 9.71% | 10.32% | 7.17% | 6.93% | 6.91% | | | 持仓量 ...

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 国内AI领域大消息不断！阿里发布千问旗舰推理模型Qwen3-Max-Thinking，创下数项权威评测全球新纪录，性能媲美GPT-5.2、Gemini 3 Pro，成为迄今为止 | | 最接近国际顶尖模型的国内最强AI大模型。与此同时，AI独角兽阶跃星辰完成超50亿元人民币B+轮融资，一举刷新过去12个月中国大模型赛道单笔最高融资纪 | | 录。 | | 外交部提醒中国公民春节期间避免前往日本。提醒指出，近段时间以来，日本针对中国公民违法犯罪案件多发，同时部分地区连续发生地震，中国公民在日本 | | 面临严重安全威胁。航班管家DAST数据显示，2月已有49条赴日航线航班全部取消。国航、东航、南航以及山航、厦航、上航集体公告，涉日航线机票免费退 | | 改签政策延长到10月24日。 | | 加快培育服务消费新增长点相关政策文件近日将推出。商务部相关负责人介绍，将出台扩大入境消费的政策措施；启动建设国家数字贸易示范区；优化实施消 | | 费品以旧换新，促进汽车、家电等大宗耐用商品消费；开展汽车流通消费改革试点；国家层面的海外综合服务大平台近期将上线。 宏观信息 | | 中 ...

| | | | | 20260127申万期货品种策略日报-软商品 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 黄莹(执业编号：F03148260；投资咨询编号：Z0022869） | | | | | | | | huangying@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 白糖2609 | 白糖2605 | 白糖2603 | 11号糖2603 | 11号糖2607 | 11号糖2605 | | | 前日收盘价 | 5189 | 5172 | 5178 | 14.77 | 14.29 | 14.61 | | | 前2日收盘 价 | 5195 | 5180 | 5185 | 14.73 | 14.32 | 14.63 | | | 涨跌 | -6 | -8 | -7 | 0.04 | -0.03 | -0.02 | | 期 货 | 涨跌幅% | -0.12 | -0.15 | -0.14 | 0.27 | -0.21 | -0.14 | | 市 | 持仓量 | 101679 | 4679 ...

申银万国期货研究所 李霁月 （从业编号F03119649 交易咨询号Z0019570） lijy@sywgqh.com.cn 申万期货品种策略日报-生猪（LH） | | | | | | 生猪（LH） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1月 | 3月 | 5月 | 7月 | 9月 | 11月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 11810 | 11465 | 11760 | 12425 | 13365 | 13335 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 12000 | 11565 | 11850 | 12470 | 13390 | 13360 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -190 | -100 | -90 | -45 | -25 | -25 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -1.58% | -0.86% | -0.76% | -0.36% | -0.19% | -0.19% | | 场 | 成交量 | 15 | 53652 | 30669 | 4880 | 3970 | 1175 | | | 持仓量 | 17 | 133394 | 113 ...

| CNF到岸价: | 指标 | | --- | --- | | 名称 | | | | 1、据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚1月1-20日棕榈油产量预估减少 | | --- | --- | | | 14.43%，其中马来半岛减少14.29%，沙巴减少11.12%，沙捞越减少23.21%，婆罗洲减少14.6%。2 | | 行业 | 、据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至1月24日，巴西大豆播种率为99.1%，上周为 | | 信息 | 98.6%，去年同期为99.2%，五年均值为99%；巴西大豆收割率为6.6%，上周为2.3%，去年同期为 | | | 3.2%，五年均值为7%。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收涨。根据CONAB数据截至1月17日，巴西大豆收割率为2.3%，上周为 | | | 0.6%，去年同期为1.2%，五年均值为3.2%。中美官员积极会谈提振市场对于美豆出口前景的预 | | | 期，同时美国环保署将很快发布关于生物燃料的最终法规，其中包括小型炼油厂豁免政策。生物 | | | 燃料政策即将明朗化提振需求预期，近期美豆期价有所回暖。国内方面，近期连粕跟随外盘有 ...

| | | | 2026年1月26日申万期货品种策略目报-黄金自银 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 甲银万国期货研究所 陈梦赟(从业资格号:F03147376;交易咨询号:Z0022753) | | | | | | | | chenmy@sywggh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金2606 | 沪金2604 | 沪银2606 | 沪银2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1118.38 | 1115. 640 | 24930 | 24965 | | | | 前日收盘价 | 1090.38 | 1087. 580 | 23297 | 23339 | | | 期货 | 涨跌 | 28. 00 | 28. 060 | 1633 | 1626 | | | 市场 | 涨跌幅 | 2.57% | 2.58% | 7.01% | 6.97% | | | | 持仓量 | 80602 | 206580 | 160299 | 316349 | | | | 成交量 | 51175 | 288050 ...

本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 (核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号) 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性,对未来预测存在不及预期,以及宏观环境和产业链影响因 素存在不确定性变化等风险。 | | | | 2026年1月26日申万期货品种策略目报-黄金自银 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 甲银万国期货研究所 陈梦赟(从业资格号:F03147376;交易咨询号:Z0022753) | | | | | | | | chenmy@sywggh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金2606 | 沪金2604 | 沪银2606 | 沪银2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1118.38 | 1115. 640 | 24930 | 24965 | | | | 前日收盘价 | 1090.38 | 1087. 580 | 23297 | 23339 | | | 期货 | 涨跌 | 28. 00 | 28. 060 | 1633 | 1626 | | | 市场 ...

| | 20260126申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | 111 I | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前1日收盘价 1402. 5 1157. 0 1235.5 | | | 1890. 0 | 1722. 0 | 1791.5 | | | 前2日收盘价 1367.0 1131.5 1203.0 | | | 1863. 0 | 1688.0 | 1758.0 | | E | 准胜 35.5 25. 5 32.5 | | | 27.0 | 34.0 | 33.5 | | सह | 张跌幅 2. 60% 2. 25% 2. 70% | | | 1. 45% | 2. 01% | 1. 91% | | E | ...

集运欧线数据日报 2026/1/26 最新观点 集运欧线：上周五EC下跌0.1%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1595美元/TEU，环比下跌81美元/TEU，基本对应于 01.26-02.01期间的欧线订舱价，反映1月底船司运价的继续下调。考虑到春节逐渐临近，揽货压力也将逐渐增 加，同时也需为春节假期期间搭建滚动舱位，节前运价进入淡季下降通道。由于光伏等产品出口退税政策调整 或引发4月1日前相关产品的抢出口，带来淡季货量的相对韧性，再加上2025年3月4月船司曾表价宣涨挺价，市 场对于4月运价估值并没有很悲观。参考去年8月9月的抢出口对运价的对冲程度以及抢出口集中大量出货的滞 后可能性，再加上最新船期统计1月底至节前运力投放仍相对充裕，节前或偏向运行偏弱，关注后续出口抢运 情况以及马士基的新开舱。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The long - term bullish logic for platinum and palladium is solid, driven by the resonance of macro - finance and industrial fundamentals. Although there are short - term fluctuations due to Trump's policy swings and geopolitical news, the core upward momentum remains intact, and the medium - and long - term upward trend is clear [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 685.90, 682.55, and 681.50 respectively, with price increases of 64.55, 60.55, and 59.05 and increases of 10.39%, 9.73%, and 9.49% respectively. The trading volumes are 25095, 861, and 508, and the open interests are all 11180 [1] - For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 497.95, 499.60, and 501.00 respectively, with price increases of 19.05, 19.40, and 13.65 and increases of 3.98%, 4.04%, and 2.80% respectively. The trading volumes are 11027, 292, and 42, and the open interests are all 4087 [1] Spot Market - For platinum in Shanghai, the previous closing price was 681.50, with a price increase of 57.10 and an increase of 0.091%. For London platinum, the previous closing price was 2705.00, with a price increase of 198.00 and an increase of 0.079%. For Zhou Dafu platinum, the previous closing price was 1051.00, with a price increase of 96.00 and an increase of 0.101%. For Lao Fengxiang platinum, the previous closing price was 950.00, with a price increase of 90.00 and an increase of 0.105% [1] - For Chinese palladium, the previous closing price was 470.00, with a price increase of 25.00 and an increase of 0.056%. For Russian palladium, the previous closing price was 4569.11, with a price decrease of 83.81 and a decrease of 0.018% [1] Inventory - For platinum, the NYMEX inventory remains at 665,888.20 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3784.0 ounces to 338,089.85 ounces. The trading volume of the Gold Exchange decreased by 6.0 kilograms to 2.00 kilograms, and the trading value decreased by 363.2 million yuan to 136.30 million yuan [1] - For palladium, the NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 216,266.31 ounces and 144,029.47 ounces respectively [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - The current value of the US dollar index is 97.51, a decrease of 0.7725 from the previous value. The S&P 500 index is at 6,915.61, an increase of 2.2600. The US Treasury yield is 4.24, a decrease of 0.0200. The Nasdaq index is 23,501.24, an increase of 65.2200. The Dow Jones index is 49,098.71, a decrease of 285.3000. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.99, a decrease of 0.0090 [1] - For Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 1115.64, 1118.38, and 1121.02 respectively, with price increases of 28.06, 28.00, and 28.00. For Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 24965.00, 24930.00, and 24929.00 respectively, with price increases of 1626, 1633, and 1647 [1] Macroeconomic News - The successor to the Fed Chair is a market concern. Trump may announce the new candidate this week, and Rick Rieder of BlackRock has a 50% chance of being nominated, up from 4%. [2] - The Greenland crisis has taken a turn. Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland with NATO Secretary - General Lute. The original tariff measures will not be implemented, leading to a sharp rise in US stocks and a plunge in spot silver. The EU emergency summit will be held on January 22 [2] - The US Trade Representative hopes to have another round of trade negotiations with China, and China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson called for implementing the consensus of the two heads of state [2] - The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting in 2026, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including building the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening regulatory measures, and improving service quality [2] Analysis of Platinum and Palladium - On the macro level, Powell's criminal prosecution weakens the US dollar's credit, increasing the pressure on US Treasury bonds. The global de - dollarization process speeds up, enhancing the reserve and hedging value of platinum and palladium. The Polish central bank's gold - buying plan supports the precious metals sector. The expected Fed rate cuts will boost platinum and palladium valuations, and the Greenland geopolitical risk provides short - term support for hedging demand [2] - On the industrial side, platinum has strong upward momentum. The hydrogen energy industry boom drives up demand, and the supply is constrained by South African production capacity. Palladium is affected by electrification but has demand support from hybrid vehicle penetration and emission policies, with a tight spot market balancing prices [2]