Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The domestic central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with possible reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and treasury bond trading operations in the fourth quarter. Market liquidity is expected to return to a reasonably ample level, strongly supporting treasury bond futures prices. However, external tariff policy changes may cause downward pressure on exports [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed performance. The T2512 contract rose 0.03%, and its trading volume increased. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day and DR007 rates increased, while GC007 rate decreased [2]. Spot Market - The yields of key - term domestic treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y treasury bond yield rose 0.12bp to 1.84%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 34.77bp [2]. - In the overseas market, the US 10Y treasury bond yield decreased 6bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield decreased 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield increased 0.1bp [2]. Macro News - The central bank conducted 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 16, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, the net withdrawal on that day was 376 billion yuan [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to multiple hot issues, including the attitude towards Sino - US economic and trade consultations, optimization of rare - earth export control procedures, and protection of the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary mentioned possible extensions of tariff exemptions for China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson restated China's stance [3]. - The Bank of Japan may tighten monetary policy if the expected economic outlook is more certain, and some members believe inflation risks are rising [3]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that the China E - commerce Logistics Index in September continued to rise, reaching a new high for the year [3]. - There were differences among Fed officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, with one advocating a cautious 25 - basis - point cut and the other a more aggressive 50 - basis - point cut [3]. Industry Information - Most money market interest rates showed mixed trends, with some rising and some falling. The 14 - day silver - deposit - pledged repurchase weighted average interest rate reached a new low since January 2023, and the 1 - month rate reached a new low in over a month [3]. - US Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2 - year yield falling 8.14bp, the 3 - year falling 8.02bp, the 5 - year falling 7.63bp, the 10 - year falling 5.94bp, and the 30 - year falling 4.76bp [3]. - The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased to 1.755%. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan and a net injection of 400 billion yuan through 6 - month outright reverse repurchases. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet and cut interest rates again, narrowing the Sino - US interest rate spread and providing more space for the domestic central bank's monetary policy [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures are oscillating at a low level. In the medium - term, the market focuses more on the actual demand fulfillment and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. Currently, due to the continued Sino - US game, crude oil is under pressure, weakening cost support. In the short - term, polyolefin prices fluctuate passively with the cost side, and market sentiment is cautious. However, after continuous declines, the decline speed of chemical products may slow down [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Fluctuation**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6929, 6968, and 7004 respectively, with increases of 19, 23, and 7, and涨幅 of 0.27%, 0.33%, and 0.10% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6618, 6670, and 6691 respectively, with increases of 23, 22, and 19, and涨幅 of 0.35%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 239611, 22986, and 234 respectively, and the open interests were 566645, 60931, and 662 respectively, with open interest changes of - 2181, 662, and 44 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 264044, 23995, and 804 respectively, and the open interests were 661984, 115861, and 3936 respectively, with open interest changes of - 5795, 2387, and 279 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 39, - 36, and 75 respectively, compared with previous values of - 35, - 52, and 87. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 52, - 21, and 73 respectively, compared with previous values of - 53, - 24, and 77 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2321 yuan/ton, 6215 yuan/ton, 533 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6500 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous values of 2301 yuan/ton, 6260 yuan/ton, 531 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6950 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous ranges of 6950 - 7550 yuan/ton, 6950 - 7250 (8100 - 8250) yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6450 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton respectively, which are the same as the previous ranges [2] News - On Thursday (October 16), the settlement price of West Texas Light Crude Oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.46 per barrel, the lowest since May 5, down $0.81 or 1.39% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.26 - $59.11. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.06 per barrel, also the lowest since May 5, down $0.85 or 1.37% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.84 - $62.75 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the strong side. The tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, positive growth in power grid investment and automobile production and sales, negative growth in home appliance production scheduling, and the Indonesian mine accident that may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap all support copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has gradually stabilized after the Sino - US trade confrontation [2]. - Zinc prices will follow copper prices. Although the short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise, due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Overall, the supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Night - session copper prices closed higher. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. Power grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has stabilized after the Sino - US trade confrontation. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. The short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Zinc supply - demand difference is not obvious overall, but it will follow copper prices in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | **Variety** | **Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton)** | **Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton)** | **Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton)** | **LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, USD/ton)** | **LME Inventory (ton)** | **LME Inventory Daily Change (ton)** | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 85,050 | 35 | 10,620 | - 11.16 | 138,350 | - 450 | | Aluminum | 20,975 | 0 | 2,796 | 17.52 | 498,975 | - 4,975 | | Zinc | 21,940 | - 55 | 2,968 | 137.20 | 38,350 | - 250 | | Nickel | 121,270 | - 1,580 | 15,230 | - 205.73 | 246,756 | 3,498 | | Lead | 17,100 | - 210 | 1,972 | - 44.99 | 254,775 | 8,225 | | Tin | 281,350 | 650 | 35,725 | - 129.00 | 2,575 | 190 | [2]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again and is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In terms of capital, the domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the RMB's appreciation, external funds may also flow into the domestic market. In Q4, the market style may return to value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 4614.00, 4599.60, 4590.00, and 4566.80 respectively, with increases of 17.60, 15.80, 17.40, and 15.60. The trading volumes were 30168.00, 23168.00, 87781.00, and 12356.00, and the open interests were 23420.00, 32933.00, 161774.00, and 56692.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 12399.00, 8673.00, 1346.00, and 100.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3019.20, 3019.60, 3019.00, and 3019.00 respectively, with increases of 22.40, 25.60, 24.00, and 23.00. The trading volumes were 13559.00, 10295.00, 47257.00, and 5200.00, and the open interests were 9009.00, 11468.00, 69593.00, and 13814.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 4694.00, 4554.00, 5999.00, and 514.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7225.40, 7126.40, 7062.00, and 6895.20 respectively, with decreases of 46.60, 64.00, 72.40, and 76.80. The trading volumes were 29413.00, 23838.00, 88010.00, and 17287.00, and the open interests were 23203.00, 39176.00, 138071.00, and 52601.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 11052.00, 6383.00, - 3447.00, and - 343.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7403.40, 7293.20, 7205.00, and 6981.40 respectively, with decreases of 48.20, 64.40, 68.80, and 72.80. The trading volumes were 39286.00, 30514.00, 153865.00, and 26088.00, and the open interests were 33142.00, 54135.00, 185185.00, and 83019.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 14769.00, 7917.00, - 6410.00, and - 1488.00 [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 14.40, 0.40, - 99.00, and - 110.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 15.00, - 1.20, - 82.00, and - 93.20 [1]. 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous - day values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4618.42, 3019.20, 7231.53, and 7401.84 respectively, with changes of 0.26%, 0.59%, - 0.86%, and - 1.09% [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption sectors had changes of 2.26%, - 1.95%, 0.57%, and - 0.12% respectively. The major consumption, medical and health, real - estate and finance, and information technology sectors had changes of 0.80%, 0.36%, 0.84%, and - 0.67% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities sectors had changes of 1.58% and 0.71% respectively [1]. 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300 - related Basis**: The previous - day basis values of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (the quarter after next - CSI 300) were - 4.42, - 18.82, - 28.42, and - 51.62 respectively [1]. - **SSE 50 - related Basis**: The previous - day basis values of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (the quarter after next - SSE 50) were 0.00, 0.40, - 0.20, and - 0.20 respectively [1]. - **CSI 500 - related Basis**: The previous - day basis values of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (the quarter after next - CSI 500) were - 6.13, - 105.13, - 169.53, and - 336.33 respectively [1]. - **CSI 1000 - related Basis**: The previous - day basis values of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (the quarter after next - CSI 1000) were 1.56, - 108.64, - 196.84, and - 420.44 respectively [1]. 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous - day values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3916.23, 13086.41, 8054.30, and 3037.44 respectively, with changes of 0.10%, - 0.25%, - 0.65%, and 0.38% respectively [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous - day values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25888.51, 47672.67, 6629.07, and 24272.19 respectively, with changes of - 0.09%, 1.76%, - 0.63%, and 0.38% respectively [1]. 5. Macroeconomic Information - **China's Commerce Ministry**: The Ministry responded to multiple hot issues, was open to equal consultations with the US on an equal - footing basis, would optimize the permit process for rare - earth export controls, take measures to safeguard Chinese enterprises' rights, and introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade [2]. - **US Treasury Secretary**: Stated that if China stopped strict rare - earth export controls, the US might extend the three - month exemption for additional tariffs on Chinese goods, and that President Trump was ready to meet Chinese leaders soon [2]. - **National Tax Data**: National enterprises accelerated equipment updates, and the consumer goods trade - in policy was effective. In the first three quarters, industrial enterprises' procurement of mechanical equipment increased by 9.4% year - on - year, with private enterprises' procurement up 13% year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle sales increased by 30.1% year - on - year [2]. 6. Industry Information - **Photovoltaic Industry**: Since the second half of this year, the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry has attracted attention. New photovoltaic capacity control policies may be introduced, and the rumor of a polysilicon storage platform is false, with the potential storage plan facing many obstacles [2]. - **Solid - state Battery**: Chinese scientists solved a key charging problem, enabling a leap - forward upgrade in solid - state battery performance, with the potential to break through the 1000 - kilometer range ceiling [2]. - **Intelligent Connected Vehicles**: The 2025 World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference was held, and a national application pilot base for AI in the automotive field was launched. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote "vehicle - road - cloud integration" and standard - setting for autonomous driving [2]. - **Computing Power**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched a "millisecond computing power" initiative, aiming for a 70% coverage rate of the millisecond - latency computing power circle in urban areas by 2027 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper price may be on the stronger side. The zinc price will follow the trend of the copper price [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night-time copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. Grid investment continues positive growth, while power source investment slows down. Automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. After the Sino - US trade confrontation, market sentiment has gradually stabilized. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 85,650 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 35 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 10,576 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 27.94 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 138,800 tons, and the daily change was - 550 tons [2] Zinc - Night-time zinc prices closed lower. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The weekly inventory of galvanized sheets counted by the China Iron and Steel Association has increased. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign one. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, but it will follow the copper price trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,945 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 55 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,941 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 139.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 38,600 tons, and the daily change was 1,125 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,855 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 40 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,745 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 6.66 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 503,950 tons, and the daily change was - 2,050 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 121,010 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,950 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,150 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 211.22 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 243,258 tons, and the daily change was 1,164 tons [2] - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,200 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 210 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 1,986 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 44.09 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 246,550 tons, and the daily change was 9,550 tons [2] - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 281,890 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,090 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 35,380 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 130.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,385 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is dated October 16, 2025, and is from Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute [1] - It analyzes economic data, including CPI, PPI, and financial statistics, and provides comments on key commodities and market trends [1][6][7] Group 2: Economic Data - In September 2025, CPI环比 rose 0.1% and同比 fell 0.3%, while core CPI同比 rose 1.0% with the increase expanding for the 5th consecutive month; PPI环比 remained flat and同比 fell 2.3% with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points [1][6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale reached 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 22.71 trillion yuan [1][7] - At the end of September, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year; M2同比 grew 8.4%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [7] Group 3: Key Commodities Precious Metals - Gold continued to strengthen, with the international gold price reaching $4200 per ounce. Factors such as the Fed's possible pause in balance - sheet reduction, trade war concerns, and central bank gold - buying supported the rise, but there may be adjustments due to accumulated profit positions [2][19] Copper - Copper prices closed lower at night. The supply of concentrates remained tight, but smelting output continued to grow. An Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap and support copper prices in the long term [2][20] Crude Oil - SC crude oil fell 0.7% at night. A cease - fire agreement in Gaza was signed, and OPEC expected an increase in global oil demand, but short - term prices showed a downward trend [3][13] Group 4: Market Outlook Financial - Stock indices are likely to maintain a bullish trend, with a possible shift in market style towards value in the fourth quarter. Domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and external funds may flow in [10][11] - Treasury bonds may be slightly bearish in the short term, but the domestic central bank may implement more relaxed monetary policies, providing support for bond prices [12] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices may break down in the short term [13] - Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term, with increased开工 load and rising inventory [14] - Rubber is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with supply pressure likely to increase and demand support being limited [15][16] - Polyolefin prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations, with a possible slowdown in the decline after continuous drops [17] - Glass and soda ash markets are cautious, with expectations of potential supply changes in the glass industry but ongoing inventory digestion [18] Metals - Precious metals may face adjustments after a rapid rise [19] - Copper prices may be supported in the long term by supply - demand changes [20] - Zinc prices may be weaker in the domestic market compared to overseas, and they tend to follow copper prices [22] - Carbonate lithium is in a destocking state, and prices are supported, with limited volatility [23] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke may experience increased short - term fluctuations due to high steel production, inventory, and trade frictions [24] - Iron ore is expected to be bullish with strong demand and reduced global shipments [25] - Steel market supply - demand contradictions are not significant, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar in the medium term [26] Agricultural Products - Protein meal prices are affected by trade tensions and USDA report delays, with short - term pressure on domestic prices [27][28] - Edible oil prices may be pressured in the short term but supported in the long term by production and policy factors [29] - Sugar prices are expected to be weak in the domestic market and may fluctuate in the international market [30] - Cotton prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to supply and demand factors [31] Shipping Index - The container shipping European line is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with shipping companies' price - setting and market sentiment being key factors [32] Group 5: External Market Performance - On October 15, 2025, most major external market indices rose, including the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures. The US dollar index fell, and gold and silver prices increased [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold continues to strengthen, with international gold prices surpassing $4,200 per ounce. The Fed Chair hinted at a pause in balance - sheet reduction, trade - war concerns are intensifying, and bets on two interest rate cuts this year are growing stronger. The U.S. government shutdown is ongoing, and the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt situation are deteriorating. Against this backdrop, central banks are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven and value - storing asset is rising. However, after a rapid rise, there are accumulated profitable positions, so be aware of possible adjustments and increased volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Market**: - For gold futures, the prices of沪金2606 and沪金2512 are 969.60 and 962.08 respectively, with daily increases of 1.86 and 1.74, and increases of 0.19% and 0.18%. Their trading volumes are 6,880 and 420,246, and open interests are 22,325 and 230,686. - For silver futures, the prices of沪银2606 and沪银2512 are 12,201.00 and 12,138.00 respectively, with daily increases of 171.00 and 172.00, and increases of 1.42% and 1.44%. Their trading volumes are 31,945 and 2,033,514, and open interests are 19,602 and 477,807 [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The price of Shanghai Gold T + D has increased by 18.55 to 958.5, with a rise of 1.97%. London gold (in dollars per ounce) has increased by 13.55 to 964.00, with a rise of 1.43%. - The price of Shanghai Silver T + D has increased by 431.00 to 11,961.00, with a rise of 3.74%. London silver (in dollars per ounce) has increased by 1.64 to 53.05, with a rise of 3.19% [2]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold has increased by 2,916.00 kilograms to 75,099 kilograms. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver has decreased by 32,643.00 kilograms to 1,030,429 kilograms. - COMEX gold inventory has decreased by 375,461.09 to 39,285,219, and COMEX silver inventory has decreased by 2,921,026 to 512,711,524 [2]. - **Related Derivatives and Indexes**: - The dollar index has decreased by 0.38% to 98.6659, the S&P index has increased by 0.40% to 6,671.06, the U.S. Treasury yield has increased by 0.50% to 4.05, and Brent crude oil has increased by 0.01% to 62.47. The U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan has decreased by 0.14% to 7.1301. - The spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF holdings have both increased by 1.00 tons to 44,315 tons. The CFTC speculator net long position in silver has increased by 486 to 33,486, while that in gold has decreased by 1,451 to 32,895 [2]. Macro News - The U.S. side said that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the U.S. to correct its wrong actions and resolve issues through dialogue. China opposes the EU's forced technology - transfer practices. - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity has changed little recently, with a slight decline in overall consumer spending and stable employment levels. - The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill. The U.S. government may cut over 10,000 federal government jobs during the shutdown. The U.S. Treasury Secretary plans to submit Fed leadership candidates to Trump after Thanksgiving [3]. Fed Policy and Economic Data - Fed Governor Stephen Milan said that due to increased trade tensions, policymakers need to cut interest rates soon. He expects two interest rate cuts this year. - The New York Fed's manufacturing index rose 19.4 points to 10.7 in October, far exceeding market expectations, and the outlook index reached its highest level since the beginning of the year [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again, and it is likely to maintain a bullish trend. Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. Externally, with the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, foreign funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the possible intensification of Q4's growth - stabilization policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4601.60, 4586.60, 4576.40, and 4555.00 respectively, with increases of 70.60, 73.20, 77.20, and 77.80. The trading volumes were 40430.00, 16606.00, 86223.00, and 12308.00, and the open interests were 35819.00, 24260.00, 160428.00, and 56592.00, with changes of - 9895.00, 5467.00, - 2013.00, and - 848.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 300 corresponding to these contracts were 1.56%, 1.62%, 1.72%, and 1.74% [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2999.40, 2998.20, 2997.40, and 2998.40, with increases of 41.00, 46.00, 44.40, and 44.60. The trading volumes were 17842.00, 6567.00, 41717.00, and 5176.00, and the open interests were 13703.00, 6914.00, 63594.00, and 13300.00, with changes of - 5392.00, 1526.00, - 1687.00, and - 796.00 respectively. The increases of the SSE 50 corresponding to these contracts were 1.39%, 1.56%, 1.50%, and 1.51% [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7278.20, 7196.20, 7140.20, and 6977.00, with increases of 118.40, 124.20, 121.60, and 120.00. The trading volumes were 38456.00, 19428.00, 105607.00, and 19123.00, and the open interests were 34255.00, 32793.00, 141518.00, and 52944.00, with changes of - 9786.00, 5875.00, - 10422.00, and - 2023.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 500 corresponding to these contracts were 1.65%, 1.76%, 1.73%, and 1.75% [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7455.80, 7362.60, 7275.20, and 7060.20, with increases of 117.60, 128.20, 126.60, and 134.20. The trading volumes were 55423.00, 28745.00, 178569.00, and 30417.00, and the open interests were 47911.00, 46218.00, 191595.00, and 84507.00, with changes of - 11189.00, 7939.00, - 2448.00, and - 280.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 1000 corresponding to these contracts were 1.60%, 1.77%, 1.77%, and 1.94% [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 15.00, - 1.20, - 82.00, and - 93.20 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 25.20, - 3.60, - 87.40, and - 110.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4606.29, 3001.35, 7294.00, and 7483.45 respectively, with increases of 1.48%, 1.36%, 1.38%, and 1.50%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 284.77, 63.38, 217.56, and 244.85, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6073.26, 1571.06, 3974.59, and 4037.98 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the increases of energy, raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities were 0.32%, 1.18%, 1.98%, 1.49%, 0.45%, 1.77%, 1.06%, 2.75%, 1.11%, and - 0.20% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 4.69, - 19.69, - 29.89, and - 51.29 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of 1.34, - 23.86, - 31.86, and - 52.86 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (far - quarter - SSE 50) were - 1.95, - 3.15, - 3.95, and - 2.95 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of 3.90, 0.30, - 2.70, and - 0.10 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 15.80, - 97.80, - 153.80, and - 317.00 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of - 41.45, - 128.85, - 184.85, and - 350.65 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 27.65, - 120.85, - 208.25, and - 423.25 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of - 33.15, - 143.15, - 227.35, and - 451.15 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3912.21, 13118.75, 8106.60, and 3025.87 respectively, with increases of 1.22%, 1.73%, 1.77%, and 2.36% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P, and DAX Index were 25910.60, 46847.32, 6671.06, and 24181.37 respectively, with increases of 1.84%, - 2.58%, 0.40%, and - 0.23% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The US side said that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, urging the US to correct its wrong practices and resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation. China also opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices in the name of enhancing competitiveness [2] - In September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 reached a new low for the year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - In September, China's CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month and returning to 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - In September, the average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans was about 3.1%, about 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, and the average interest rate of newly issued personal housing loans was about 3.1%, about 25 basis points lower than the same period last year [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Six departments including the National Development and Reform Commission issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities in three years, aiming to build 28 million charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity to meet the charging needs of over 80 million electric vehicles [2] - In September, the trading volume of the national second - hand car market was 1.7944 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, with a trading amount of 110.466 billion yuan [2] - Chengdu expanded the scope of beneficiaries of the "commercial - to - provident" loan policy,取消了本市缴存限制，符合条件的异地缴存人也可申请办理，and all commercial banks that have signed cooperation agreements with the Chengdu Housing Provident Fund Center can participate [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw a general decline in treasury bond futures prices, with the T2512 contract down 0.04% and a decrease in its open interest. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, with the SHIBOR 7 - day rate down 0.9bp, the DR007 rate down 0.42bp, and the GC007 rate up 0.1bp. Key - term treasury bond yields in China generally rose, with the 10Y treasury bond yield up 1.05bp to 1.84%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread at 34.78bp. In the overseas market, the US 10Y treasury bond yield rose 2bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield remained unchanged, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield fell 0.8bp. Considering that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, narrowing the Sino - US interest rate spread, and the domestic demand side represented by real estate is still weak, the central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with possible RRR and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter and potential treasury bond trading operations. Market liquidity is expected to return to a reasonable and sufficient level, which strongly supports treasury bond futures prices, so a bullish stance is recommended [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous trading day saw a general decline in treasury bond futures prices. For example, the TS2512 contract closed at 102.382 (down 0.002 or 0.00% from the previous day), the TF2512 contract closed at 105.730 (down 0.045 or - 0.04%), the T2512 contract closed at 108.130 (down 0.040 or - 0.04%), and the TL2512 contract closed at 114.58 (down 0.180 or - 0.16%) [2]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of the T2512 contract decreased by 7542, while that of the TF2603 contract increased by 283. The trading volume of the TL2512 contract was 122948, and that of the TS2603 contract was 1366 [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread of the TS2512 - TS2603 contract was 0.100 (previous value 0.092), the TF2512 - TF2603 contract was 0.095 (previous value 0.1100), the T2512 - T2603 contract was 0.315 (previous value 0.3050), and the TL2512 - TL2603 contract was 0.340 (previous value 0.3500) [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with the IRR of the T2512 contract's CTD bond at 1.4876%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: The SHIBOR 7 - day rate was 1.4140% (down 0.9bp from the previous day), the DR007 rate was 1.4694% (down 0.42bp), and the GC007 rate was 1.4910% (up 0.1bp) [2]. - **Key - term Treasury Bond Yields in China**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally rose. The 10Y treasury bond yield was 1.84% (up 1.05bp), the 2Y treasury bond yield was 1.49% (up 0.31bp), and the 5Y treasury bond yield was 1.59% (up 0.49bp). The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 34.78bp [2]. 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 10Y treasury bond yield was 4.05% (up 2bp), the German 10Y treasury bond yield was 2.660% (unchanged), and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield was 1.662% (down 0.8bp). The Sino - US 10Y treasury bond yield spread was - 221.2bp [2]. 3.4 Macro News and Policy - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted a 435 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on October 15, with a net investment of 435 billion yuan. It also announced a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation, with a cumulative net investment of 400 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases this month, marking a fifth consecutive month of increased roll - overs [3]. - **Financial Data**: At the end of September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 "scissors gap" reached a new low for the year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3]. - **Economic Data**: In September, China's CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 1% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the fifth consecutive month and reaching 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months [3]. - **External Situation**: The Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months and are expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month. The US threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China, and the EU tried to force Chinese enterprises to transfer technology to European enterprises [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The NOPA's monthly crushing report shows that the soybean oil inventory at the end of September dropped to 1.243 billion pounds, down 0.2% month - on - month, hitting a nine - month low, but up 16.6% year - on - year and higher than market expectations [2] - Indian vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from 1,677,346 tons in August, with palm oil imports dropping significantly from 990,528 tons in August to 829,017 tons [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed up. The US is working to ease trade tensions, alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. The 10 - month USDA supply - demand report is postponed due to the government shutdown. The domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the upward movement of domestic meal prices [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed oil was weak, while palm oil closed up. The MPOB report shows that September Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.7% month - on - month, and inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. In the short term, the oil market may be under pressure, but in the long - term, the Southeast Asian production area will enter the production - reduction season and biodiesel policies will support oil consumption [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8252, 9322, and 9932 respectively, with changes of 12, - 8, and - 27 and percentage changes of 0.15%, - 0.09%, and - 3.15% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread changed from - 296 to - 320, and the M9 - 1 spread changed from - 85 to - 74 [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4350 ringgit/ton, 1007 cents/bu, 51 cents/lb, and 276 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 70, 1, 0, and 1 and percentage changes of - 1.58%, 0.07%, 0.51%, and 0.40% [1] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals have changed. For example, the current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8450 and 8540 respectively, with a percentage change of - 0.12% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between different spot products have also changed. For example, the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 590 to - 560 [1] Import and Crushing Profit - **Profit Changes**: The import and crushing profits of various products have changed. For example, the profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil changed from - 417 to - 379 [1] Warehouse Receipts - **Quantity Changes**: The quantity of warehouse receipts for some products has changed. For example, the quantity of soybean oil warehouse receipts changed from 25,444 to 26,294 [1]