1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, and may initiate treasury bond trading operations. Market liquidity will remain reasonably abundant, which will support the prices of treasury bond futures. The current external environment is more complex and severe, with increasing trade barriers. The domestic demand side, represented by real estate, remains weak. The State Council has stated that it will intensify counter - cyclical adjustments to expand domestic demand and strengthen the domestic economic cycle [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2512 contract fell by 0.17%. The TS2512 contract closed at 102.334, down 0.044 or 0.04% from the previous day; the TF2512 contract closed at 105.655, down 0.125 or 0.12%; the T2512 contract closed at 108.110, down 0.185 or 0.17%; the TL2512 contract closed at 115.3, down 0.570 or 0.49% [2]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of the T2512 contract decreased by 5009, while the open interest of the T2603 contract increased by 852. The trading volume of the T2512 contract was 76613, and that of the T2603 contract was 6483 [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread of TS2512 - TS2603 was 0.080 (previous value 0.088), TF2512 - TF2603 was 0.075 (previous value 0.0850), T2512 - T2603 was 0.300 (previous value 0.3150), and TL2512 - TL2603 was 0.280 (previous value 0.3000) [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. The SHIBOR 7 - day rate increased by 0.3bp, the DR007 rate increased by 0.55bp, and the GC007 rate decreased by 0.9bp [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term treasury bond yields generally increased. The 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 2.58bp to 1.85%. The yield spread between 10 - year and 2 - year treasury bonds was 31.66bp [2]. - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 10Y treasury bond yield decreased by 2bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 4bp, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 3.8bp [2]. 3.3 Macro and Industry Information - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size was better than expected, while the consumption growth rate declined, and the investment growth rate turned negative. The year - on - year decline rates of real estate investment and sales widened, and second - hand housing prices continued to decline month - on - month [3]. - **Policy Information**: The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan in open market operations. The LPR quotes this month remained unchanged. The State Council stated that it will intensify counter - cyclical adjustments to expand domestic demand [3]. - **International News**: The US president continued to send conciliatory signals, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment eased. The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next six months [3].

| | 1、据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至10月18日，巴西大豆播种率为21.7%，上周 | | --- | --- | | | 为11.1%，去年同期为17.6%，五年均值为27.7%。2、美国农业部数据显示，截至2025年10月16日 | | 行业 | 当周，美国大豆出口检验量为1474354吨，前一周修正后为1017172吨，初值为994008吨。2024年 | | 信息 | 10月17日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为2549979吨。本作物年度迄今，美国大豆出口检验量累计为 | | | 5537802吨，上一年度同期8013348吨。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收涨。美国压榨数据表现超预期，减轻了市场对于美豆需求的担忧。根 | | | 据NOPA数据显示，9月份大豆压榨量1.97亿蒲，环比增加4.24%，同比增加11.6%，并创下有记录 | | | 以来的第四个月度高点，也是历史同期最高纪录，受此提振美豆期价有所回暖。国内方面，场关 | | | 注10月末APEC中美两国元首会面情况，国内供应充足使得短期连粕上方仍面临较大压力。 | | | 油脂：夜盘菜棕油震荡收跌，豆油震荡收 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold has become the dominant long - term narrative as the ultimate safe - haven asset, with its rising speed and intensity increasing due to factors such as the US fiscal deficit, deteriorating debt situation, global confrontation, and central banks' continuous gold purchases. Silver's spot supply - demand contradiction is further highlighted, but after a rapid rise, there may be adjustments and increased volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures, the prices of沪金2606,沪金2512,沪银2606, and沪银2512 all increased, with涨跌幅 of 2.86%, 2.91%, 1.93%, and 1.97% respectively. In the现货 market, the prices of London gold and London silver increased, while the prices of Shanghai gold T + D and Shanghai silver T + D decreased [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The持仓量 of沪金2606 is 22,015, and that of沪金2512 is 207,916; the持仓量 of沪银2606 is 27,319, and that of沪银2512 is 432,663. The成交量 of沪金2606 is 15,617, and that of沪金2512 is 728,228; the成交量 of沪银2606 is 33,301, and that of沪银2512 is 2,455,760 [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The现货升贴水 of沪金2606 is - 31.30, that of沪金2512 is - 24.88, that of沪银2606 is - 238.00, and that of沪银2512 is - 194.00 [2]. Inventory - The上期所 gold inventory remains unchanged at 84,606 kg, while the上期所 silver inventory decreased by 64,253.00 kg. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 75,206.36, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 2,991,703 [2]. Related Market Indicators - The美元指数 increased by 0.07%, the标准普尔指数 increased by 1.07%, the美债 yield decreased by 0.50%, the布伦特原油 price decreased by 0.01%, and the美元兑人民币 exchange rate decreased by 0.04% [2]. Derivatives - The spdr gold ETF持仓 increased by 1.00 tons, the SLV白银ETF持仓 increased by 1.00 tons, the CFTC投机者净持仓 of silver increased by 481, and the CFTC投机者净持仓 of gold decreased by 1,451 [2]. Macroeconomic Information - The US and China are about to return to the negotiation table. The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as issues to be raised with China. China advocates resolving issues through negotiation on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [3]. - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next six months, with an estimated recoverable resource value of $53 billion. The Pentagon will invest in building a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [3]. - The White House National Economic Council Director said that the government shutdown may end this week, and if not, stronger measures may be taken [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The weakness in polyolefin prices was due to both the drag of crude oil and the need to digest spot goods after the long holiday. With the continuation of the China - US game, crude oil was under pressure and cost support weakened. In the short term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuated passively following the cost side, and market sentiment was cautious. However, after consecutive declines in chemicals, the decline rate might slow down [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For linear LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6879, 6921, and 6952 respectively, with increases of 5, 14, and 21 compared to the day before, and corresponding increases of 0.07%, 0.20%, and 0.30%. For拉丝 PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6565, 6618, and 6650 respectively, with increases of 14, 15, and 17, and corresponding increases of 0.21%, 0.23%, and 0.26% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of linear LL for January, May, and September contracts were 218340, 20698, and 263 respectively, and the open interests were 562100, 61495, and 830 respectively, with changes of - 3312, - 750, and - 33. The trading volumes of拉丝 PP for January, May, and September contracts were 257663, 22344, and 831 respectively, and the open interests were 654849, 119507, and 4521 respectively, with changes of - 6902, 1181, and 333 [2] - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 42, - 31, and 73 respectively, compared to previous values of - 33, - 24, and 57. For拉丝 PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 53, - 32, and 85 respectively, compared to previous values of - 52, - 30, and 82 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2269 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 523 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] - **Mid - Stream Spot**: The spot price ranges of linear LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively. The spot price ranges of拉丝 PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6450 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Monday (October 20, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.52 per barrel, down $0.02 or 0.03% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $56.35 - $57.81. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.01 per barrel, down $0.28 or 0.46% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.07 - $61.55 [2]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to focus on reform in areas such as building a modern industrial system, a unified national market, and improving social security. There may be further emphasis on green development, and attention is paid to whether a GDP growth target will be set [1]. - The stock index is entering a direction - selection phase. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds may flow in. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter and become more balanced [2][10]. - Precious metals are strengthening due to factors like trade tensions, potential Fed policy changes, and deteriorating US fiscal conditions. However, there may be adjustments after rapid rises [3][19]. - For oils and fats, palm oil exports are growing, providing some price support, but the market may be pressured by macro - disturbances [3][28]. Section Summaries I. General Situation and Outlook - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be released around October 28. The macro - economy shows positive trends in exports, CPI, and PPI. There are weather and climate phenomena such as cold snaps and a possible La Nina event [1]. II. Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: After a high - level shock in September, it's in a direction - selection phase. Domestic and external funds may flow in, and the market style may shift in the fourth quarter [2][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are rising. Factors include trade tensions, Fed policy hints, and US government issues. There are risks of adjustments [3][19]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production and exports are increasing, but the market may be affected by macro - factors [3][28]. III. Daily News - **International News**: Trump is signaling trade relaxation, and the US may face a "tariff refund" situation if it loses a court case [5]. - **Domestic News**: The China Shipowners' Association has deepened cooperation with international shipping institutions [6]. - **Industry News**: India's oil imports from Russia increased in the first half of October [7]. IV. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500, ICE Brent crude, and the US dollar index rose, while the FTSE China A50 futures, London gold, and London silver declined [9]. V. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: Similar to the key variety analysis, it's in a direction - selection phase with potential fund inflows and a possible style shift [2][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price is supported by a loose monetary policy environment. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the domestic economy has positive and negative factors. The central bank may continue with a loose policy [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The price decline is due to geopolitical stability and reduced demand. OPEC's actions in November are crucial for the price trend [13]. - **Methanol**: The开工 rate of related devices is decreasing, and inventory is rising. The market is volatile [14]. - **Rubber**: Supply may increase, but weather and trade negotiations can affect the price [15]. - **Polyolefins**: The price is affected by crude oil and market sentiment, with a possible slowdown in the decline [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The inventory of glass is increasing, and that of soda ash is slightly decreasing. The market is cautious, and consumption and policies are key factors [17][18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The same as the key variety analysis, with growth and adjustment risks [3][19]. - **Copper**: The supply of concentrates is tight, and the demand varies by industry. The Indonesia mine accident may support the price [20]. - **Zinc**: The processing fee is rising, and the price may follow copper. The domestic price may be weaker than the international one [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is supported, with limited fluctuations [22]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is strong in the short - term but may face a high - level shock. The steel - making profit and production are key factors [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand is supported by steel production, and the supply has decreased. The price is expected to be strong [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is mixed. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with a mid - term bullish view [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The US soybean crushing data is positive, but the domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the price [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Similar to the key variety analysis, with palm oil exports supporting the price and macro - factors causing pressure [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and the domestic market is under supply pressure [29]. - **Cotton**: The US market is affected by the government shutdown, and the domestic market has a production increase expectation and weak downstream demand [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a game for the year - end peak season. The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the far - month price is related to the Israel - Palestine negotiation [31].

2025年10月20日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.378 | 102.290 | 105.780 | 105.695 | 108.295 | 107.980 | 115.87 | 115.57 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.362 | 102.274 | 105.705 | 105.600 | 108.165 | 107.870 | 114.96 | 114.68 | | | 涨跌 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.075 | 0.095 | 0.130 ...

Group 1: Report's Overall Information - Report Name: 20251020 Shenwan Futures Non - ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Copper may be on the strong side as weekend night - session copper prices rose. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow. The power grid investment has positive growth, while power source investment slows down. Automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, supporting copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has gradually stabilized after the China - US trade confrontation. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc will follow the copper price trend. Weekend night - session zinc prices rose. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious, but it will follow the copper price trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price: The previous domestic futures closing price was 84,390 yuan/ton, and the basis was 45 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,607 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 16.83 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 137,450 tons, with a daily decrease of 900 tons [2]. Zinc - Price: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,815 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 65 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,943 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 136.85 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 38,300 tons, with a daily decrease of 50 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,885 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 20 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,779 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 12.88 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 495,325 tons, with a daily decrease of 3,650 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 121,160 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 1,260 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,110 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 202.14 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 250,344 tons, with a daily increase of 3,588 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,075 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 215 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,972 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 41.85 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 252,000 tons, with a daily decrease of 2,775 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 280,750 yuan/ton, and the basis was 510 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,030 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 142.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 2,575 tons, with no daily change [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again. Domestically, the liquidity environment is likely to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. Externally, with the Fed's rate cuts and RMB appreciation, foreign funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the potential intensification of Q4 growth - stabilization policies and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4539.60, 4495.80, 4485.20, and 4463.00 respectively, with declines of - 71.60, - 101.00, - 100.60, and - 101.20. The trading volumes were 19019.00, 35560.00, 99982.00, and 14870.00, and the changes in open interest were - 23420.00, 10934.00, 1460.00, and 2001.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2983.00, 2964.20, 2963.00, and 2963.60 respectively, with declines of - 35.00, - 53.00, - 54.40, and - 53.20. The trading volumes were 7404.00, 17069.00, 56818.00, and 7921.00, and the changes in open interest were - 9009.00, 4742.00, - 2091.00, and 396.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7064.00, 6922.40, 6863.20, and 6702.00 respectively, with declines of - 148.60, - 189.40, - 183.40, and - 179.60. The trading volumes were 18020.00, 36648.00, 97770.00, and 19962.00, and the changes in open interest were - 23203.00, 13500.00, 2402.00, and 837.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7230.20, 7100.00, 7020.80, and 6805.00 respectively, with declines of - 163.80, - 176.80, - 169.80, and - 166.40. The trading volumes were 29136.00, 55221.00, 173725.00, and 32831.00, and the changes in open interest were - 33142.00, 23468.00, 14163.00, and 4252.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 43.80, - 18.80, - 141.60, and - 130.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 14.40, 0.40, - 99.00, and - 110.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4514.23, 2967.77, 7016.07, and 7185.48 respectively, with declines of - 2.26%, - 1.70%, - 2.98%, and - 2.92%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 256.91, 62.68, 200.04, and 254.33, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 5590.86, 1487.49, 3481.14, and 3838.75 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors had declines of - 0.78%, - 1.72%, - 3.37%, and - 2.19%. The major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had declines of - 1.48%, - 2.31%, - 1.08%, and - 4.02%. The telecommunications and public utilities sectors had declines of - 1.99% and - 0.51% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, and far - quarter - CSI 300) were 25.37, - 18.43, - 29.03, and - 51.23 respectively, compared to previous values of - 4.42, - 18.82, - 28.42, and - 51.62 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, and far - quarter - SSE 50) were 15.23, - 3.57, - 4.77, and - 4.17 respectively, compared to previous values of 0.00, 0.40, - 0.20, and - 0.20 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, and far - quarter - CSI 500) were 47.93, - 93.67, - 152.87, and - 314.07 respectively, compared to previous values of - 6.13, - 105.13, - 169.53, and - 336.33 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, and far - quarter - CSI 1000) were 44.72, - 85.48, - 164.68, and - 380.48 respectively, compared to previous values of 1.56, - 108.64, - 196.84, and - 420.44 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - cap Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3839.76, 12688.94, 7815.57, and 2935.37 respectively, with declines of - 1.95%, - 3.04%, - 2.96%, and - 3.36% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25247.10, 48277.74, 6664.01, and 23830.99 respectively, with changes of - 2.48%, 1.27%, 0.53%, and - 1.82% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - **US Trade Policy**: US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals in a recent interview, hinting that the door for negotiation remained open. The Trump administration is quietly relaxing multiple tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" in recent weeks and indicating willingness to exclude more products when other countries reach trade agreements with the US. This move comes before the Supreme Court's hearing on "reciprocal tariffs" in early November [2] - **HK Financial Official's View**: Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo - po stated that at the IMF and World Bank Group annual meetings in Washington, there were many concerns about the economic outlook. Business leaders and think - tanks in the US generally believed that stable Sino - US relations were crucial for both countries and the global economy. Many business friends expressed their hope to use Hong Kong as an entry point and springboard to explore the mainland and Asian markets [2] - **Fund Market**: As of October 19, 2025, the number of newly established funds this year reached 1163, exceeding the 1135 in 2024, indicating a strong recovery in the fund market. Among them, the number of newly established equity funds was 661, with an issuance scale of 339.396 billion yuan, accounting for 37.45% of the total issuance scale, reaching a 15 - year high since 2011. The total issuance scale this year was 906.273 billion yuan [2] - **ETF Market**: As of October 17, the net inflow of funds into the ETF market in October reached 99.161 billion yuan. Equity ETFs contributed 92.457 billion yuan, accounting for over 90% and becoming the core driving force for the inflow of funds into the ETF market. Additionally, the issuance of index funds was also very active, with over 50 index funds (including enhanced index funds and linked funds) planned for issuance this month [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Silver Market**: The price of silver has been rising continuously this year, with a cumulative increase of nearly 70%. In Yongxing County, Hunan Province, a major silver - producing area in China, most stores are out of stock. A silver enterprise executive said that investment silver bars are in short supply, with the price rising from over 8000 yuan to over 13000 yuan [2] - **Banking Industry**: After the National Day holiday, banks have entered the final stage of the annual battle. Recently, banking financial institutions have held Q4 work meetings to summarize the performance of the first three quarters and plan the key work for Q4 to ensure the achievement of annual performance targets. Some small and medium - sized banks have even launched next year's "good start" campaign two months earlier than usual [2] - **Real - Estate Policy**: The Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau of Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone has introduced multiple measures, including purchase subsidies, group - buying incentives, and enterprise rewards. From October 1 to December 31, 2025, families purchasing their first new commercial housing in the Zhuankou, Zhuanyang, Junshan, and Hannan areas of the development zone with commercial loans can enjoy loan interest subsidies of 1%, 1.5%, and 2% of the initial loan amount, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan, 30,000 yuan, and 40,000 yuan per household respectively [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefin futures are trading in a narrow range at low levels. The fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, with prices being dragged down by crude oil and the need to digest spot goods after the long holiday. Looking ahead to next week, the Sino-US game continues, crude oil is under pressure, and cost support is weakening. In the short term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuate passively following the cost side, and market sentiment is cautious. However, after continuous declines in chemicals, the decline rate may slow down [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6,874, 6,907, and 6,931 respectively, down -55, -61, and -73 from the day before, with declines of -0.79%, -0.88%, and -1.04%. The trading volumes were 210,425, 21,803, and 728, and the open interests were 565,412, 62,245, and 863, with changes of -1,233, +1,314, and +201. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -33, -24, and 57 respectively, compared to -39, -36, and 75 previously [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6,551, 6,603, and 6,633 respectively, down -67, -67, and -58 from the day before, with declines of -1.01%, -1.00%, and -0.87%. The trading volumes were 219,232, 22,551, and 616, and the open interests were 661,751, 118,326, and 4,188, with changes of -233, +2,465, and +252. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -52, -30, and 82 respectively, compared to -52, -21, and 73 previously [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2,274 yuan/ton, 6,160 yuan/ton, 533 US dollars/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, 6,500 yuan/ton, and 8,800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2,321 yuan/ton, 6,215 yuan/ton, 533 US dollars/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, 6,500 yuan/ton, and 8,800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6,900 - 7,500 yuan/ton, 6,900 - 7,150 yuan/ton, and 7,100 - 7,550 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 6,950 - 7,500 yuan/ton, 6,900 - 7,150 (8,100 - 8,250) yuan/ton, and 7,150 - 7,600 yuan/ton previously. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6,450 - 6,650 yuan/ton, 6,450 - 6,550 yuan/ton, and 6,500 - 6,650 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 6,450 - 6,650 yuan/ton, 6,500 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and 6,500 - 6,650 yuan/ton previously [2] News - On Friday (October 17), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.54 per barrel, up $0.08 from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.14%, with a trading range of $56.6 - $57.72. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.29 per barrel, up $0.23 from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.38%, with a trading range of $60.14 - $61.47 [2]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The better-than-expected US soybean crushing data alleviates market concerns about US soybean demand, leading to a recovery in US soybean futures prices. However, sufficient domestic supply in China still exerts significant pressure on the upside of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - The continuous growth of Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support for palm oil prices. Nevertheless, uncertainties in the Sino - US trade situation and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oil market [2]. 2. Market Data Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 8252, with a price increase of 12 and a percentage increase of 0.15% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Data on spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and others are given, including their current values and previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures such as BMD palm oil and CBOT soybeans are presented. For instance, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4350, with a price decrease of 70 and a percentage decrease of - 1.58% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices and their percentage changes of various oils and meals in domestic markets are provided, along with their spot basis and spreads. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8450, with a percentage decrease of - 0.12%, and the spot basis is 198 [1]. Import and Profit - **Import Profit Data**: Data on import and profit for various imported agricultural products are given, including current and previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 379, compared to the previous value of - 417 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and others are presented. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 26,294, compared to the previous value of 25,444 [1]. 3. Industry Information - The US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that the soybean crushing volume in September was 197.863 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.24% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, setting the fourth - highest record for all months and the highest for the same period in history, far exceeding analysts' expectations [2]. - Due to low prices, US farmers are generally reluctant to sell, which supports the supply side. The US Department of Agriculture has stopped issuing reports due to the government shutdown [2]. - Based on analysts' expectations, as of October 12, the US soybean harvest was 58% complete, higher than the 39% estimated the previous week [2]. - According to SPPOMA, the production of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 6.86% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% month - on - month [2].