Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Polyolefin futures fluctuated at a low level and closed in the red, with a slight decline during the night session. In the spot market, Sinopec lowered the price of linear LL by 100 in some cases, while PetroChina kept it stable. For drawn PP, Sinopec and PetroChina both lowered the price by 50 in some cases. From a fundamental perspective, the medium - term market should pay more attention to the realization of actual demand and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. Currently, due to the continued China - US game, crude oil is under pressure, weakening cost support. In the short term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuate passively following the cost side, and market sentiment is cautious. However, after continuous declines in chemicals, the decline rate may slow down [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market LL Futures - Previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6910, 6945, and 6997 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 4, and 0, and percentage changes of - 0.12%, - 0.06%, and 0.00% compared to the prices two days ago. Volumes were 205449, 17406, and 257, and open interests were 568826, 60269, and 618, with changes of - 8271, 1224, and 72 respectively. Spreads such as January - May, May - September, and September - January had present values of - 35, - 52, and 87, compared to previous values of - 31, - 48, and 79 [2] PP Futures - Previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6595, 6648, and 6672 respectively, with changes of - 7, - 3, and - 8, and percentage changes of - 0.11%, - 0.05%, and - 0.12% compared to the prices two days ago. Volumes were 270926, 28348, and 476, and open interests were 667779, 113474, and 3657, with changes of 2325, 2983, and 128 respectively. Spreads such as January - May, May - September, and September - January had present values of - 53, - 24, and 77, compared to previous values of - 49, - 29, and 78 [2] Spot Market Upstream and Downstream - For raw materials, the current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2300 yuan/ton, 6260 yuan/ton, 531 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2278 yuan/ton, 6280 yuan/ton, 524 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6520 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] Mid - stream - For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6950 - 7500, 6900 - 7150, and 7150 - 7600 respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6950 - 7550, 6950 - 7250, and 7150 - 7600. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6450 - 6650, 6500 - 6600, and 6500 - 6650 respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6500 - 6650, 6500 - 6600, and 6500 - 6650 [2] Information on Crude Oil - On Wednesday (October 15), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.27 per barrel, down $0.43 or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.2 - $59.42. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.91 per barrel, down $0.48 or 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.79 - $63.04 [2]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has gradually stabilized after the Sino - US trade confrontation [2]. - Zinc prices will follow the trend of copper prices. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Price Movement**: The copper price closed up 0.57% overnight [2]. - **Supply - demand Factors**: The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap [2]. - **Suggestion**: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The zinc price closed down 0.74% overnight [2]. - **Supply - demand Factors**: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventories have increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones due to different inventory situations at home and abroad [2]. - **Suggestion**: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 84,400 | 20 | 10,599 | 54.87 | 139,350 | - 50 | | Aluminum | 20,840 | 0 | 2,740 | 10.22 | 506,000 | - 2,825 | | Zinc | 22,200 | - 85 | 2,954 | 87.22 | 37,475 | - 475 | | Nickel | 120,490 | - 1,640 | 15,105 | - 208.69 | 242,094 | 4,716 | | Lead | 17,050 | - 200 | 1,978 | - 44.48 | 237,000 | 0 | | Tin | 280,000 | 940 | 35,290 | - 113.00 | 2,385 | - 25 | [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The Fed may end its balance - sheet reduction, and there is a high probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut later this month [1][5][12]. - Gold is becoming an increasingly important ultimate safe - asset due to factors such as the US government shutdown, rising fiscal deficits, and global confrontation, but there may be adjustments after a rapid rise [2][19]. - The copper market is affected by factors like tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, and downstream demand. The Indonesia mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap and support copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - The short - term trend of oil prices is downward, although global oil demand is expected to increase [3][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News - **International News**: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the next few months and is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month. The labor market shows signs of weakness, and inflation and employment prospects have changed little since September [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of the next - step economic work, including implementing counter - cyclical adjustments, expanding domestic demand, and supporting foreign trade and investment [6]. - **Industry News**: The 138th Canton Fair kicked off, and China's goods trade in Q3 showed a 6% year - on - year increase, indicating the resilience of China's foreign trade [7]. 3.2 Outer - market Daily Returns - On October 14, the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and other indices showed different degrees of decline, while ICE 11 - sugar and other varieties showed increases [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: After a high - level shock in September, the stock index is likely to maintain an upward trend in the long - term. However, short - term market fluctuations may increase due to Sino - US trade issues. The market style may shift to value in Q4 [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to rise. The Fed's expected interest rate cut provides more room for China's monetary policy. With the weak domestic demand, the central bank is likely to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 1.73% at night. A cease - fire agreement in Gaza was signed, and short - term oil prices tend to break downward, although global oil demand is expected to increase [3][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is short - term bullish. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and methanol plants has increased, and coastal inventories are rising [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to be weak due to smooth supply and limited demand. Weather in rubber - producing areas may affect production [15][16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures mainly declined. The market focuses on demand and potential industrial policies in Q4, and prices are affected by cost fluctuations [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures remained weak, and soda ash futures closed up. The market is cautious, and attention should be paid to consumption and policy changes [18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply at high levels. Gold is favored as a safe - asset due to various factors, but there may be adjustments [2][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.57% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the Indonesia mine accident may support copper prices in the long - term [2][20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell 0.74% at night. The smelting output is expected to increase, and zinc prices may follow copper prices in the short - term [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is supported, and the recent fluctuation is small [23]. - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term fluctuation of coking coal and coke futures may intensify due to factors such as high steel production and Sino - US trade friction [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand is supported by high steel production. With a decrease in global iron ore shipments and rapid port inventory depletion, the market is expected to be bullish [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils performing better than rebar [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends at night. The market is waiting for the USDA report, and the domestic supply is sufficient [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report showed an increase in palm oil inventory, and short - term prices may be under pressure, but long - term demand is supported [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar is in a stock - building stage, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be weak due to supply pressure [30]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors such as new cotton supply and weak downstream demand [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded in the afternoon. Maersk's price - stabilizing signal is positive, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the protein meal market, overnight soybean meal closed up in a volatile manner, while rapeseed meal closed slightly down. The US is working to ease trade tensions with China, alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. Although the market strongly anticipates a downward adjustment of US soybean yield per unit in the October USDA report, the report has been postponed due to the US government shutdown. With frequent market news, US soybean futures prices are mainly fluctuating. Domestically, the impact of tariffs on the market is weakening, and sufficient domestic supply still poses significant pressure on the short - term upward movement of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - In the oil market, overnight oils showed weak performance. The MPOB September supply - demand report indicated that Malaysian palm oil production in September was 1.841 million tons, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.428 million tons, a 7.7% month - on - month increase, basically in line with market expectations. By the end of September, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 2.3609 million tons, a 7.2% month - on - month increase. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is higher than expected, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oil market. However, in the medium to long term, the Southeast Asian production area will enter the production reduction season, and international biodiesel policies will continue to support oil consumption demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8240, 9330, 9959, 2902, 2388, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were - 28, - 34, - 63, - 30, - 12, and 26, with percentage changes of - 0.34%, - 0.36%, - 3.15%, - 1.02%, - 0.50%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread is now - 320 (previous value - 296), and the M9 - 1 spread is now - 74 (previous value - 85) [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4420 ringgit/ton, 1006 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 275 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were - 53, - 2, 0, and 0, with percentage changes of - 1.18%, - 0.20%, 0.08%, and 0.11% respectively [1]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have different percentage changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8460, with a - 0.12% change [1]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads between different spot products have also changed compared to the previous values. For example, the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is now - 560 (previous value - 590) [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of various products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 417 (previous value - 465) [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of various products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current warehouse receipts of palm oil are 500 (previous value 1570) [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - As of the week ending October 10, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.89 per bushel, a 5.3% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average crushing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [2]. - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) released the 2025/26 annual supply - demand report, predicting that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production will reach 177.6 million tons, slightly lower than last month's forecast of 177.67 million tons but a 3.6 - percentage - point increase from the 2024/25 season. The US Department of Agriculture's forecast is 175 million tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After high-level fluctuations in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again, with a high probability of maintaining a bullish trend [2] - In the short term, due to Sino - US trade issues, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase [2] - Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market [2] - In the fourth quarter, considering the potential intensification of growth - stabilizing policies and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.87% to - 1.19%. Trading volumes varied, and changes in open interest showed a mixed pattern, with some decreasing and some increasing [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts had minor changes, with small increases or decreases. Trading volumes and open - interest changes also showed different trends [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased significantly, with declines of up to - 2.99%. Trading volumes were relatively large, and open - interest changes were mixed [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines between - 1.78% and - 2.18%. Trading volumes were substantial, and open - interest changes were a combination of increases and decreases [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for some contracts changed compared to the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes all showed different degrees of decline, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having relatively larger declines [1] - **Industry Indexes**: In the CSI 300 industry indexes, the main consumption and real - estate finance sectors had positive growth rates, while the pharmaceutical and information technology sectors had negative growth rates [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis values of different contracts relative to their corresponding indexes changed compared to the previous two days [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others showed declines, while information on overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and S&P was also provided [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem [2] - China countered the US' 301 investigation on its maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors by restricting transactions with relevant US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean [2] - Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month [2] - The central bank's monetary policy department stated that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable in the long - term [2] 6. Industry Information - Relevant authorities may issue a document to regulate photovoltaic production capacity, including restrictions on capacity utilization and a ban on new capacity [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will support energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformations in key industries [2] - In September, China's automobile production and sales reached new highs, with significant year - on - year growth, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also set records [2] - Shanghai aims to boost the intelligent terminal industry, targeting a total scale of over 300 billion yuan by 2027 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. For linear LL, some prices of Sinopec were lowered by 50, while PetroChina's prices remained stable. For拉丝 PP, some prices of Sinopec were lowered by 100, and some of PetroChina's were lowered by 50. In the medium - term, the market focuses more on the actual demand fulfillment and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. After the Sino - US game over the weekend, crude oil was under pressure, weakening cost support. In the short - term, polyolefin prices fluctuate passively with the cost side, and market sentiment is cautious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6918, 6949, and 6997 respectively, down 65, 80, and 74 from the day before, with declines of - 0.93%, - 1.14%, and - 1.05%. Trading volumes were 266284, 25247, and 310, and open interests were 577097, 59045, and 546, with changes of 12312, - 70, and 120 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 31, - 48, and 79, compared to - 46, - 42, and 88 previously [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6602, 6651, and 6680 respectively, down 91, 97, and 66 from the day before, with declines of - 1.36%, - 1.44%, and - 0.98%. Trading volumes were 365570, 42343, and 686, and open interests were 665454, 110491, and 3529, with changes of 22160, 1235, and 346 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 49, - 29, and 78, compared to - 55, 2, and 53 previously [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2278 yuan/ton, 6280 yuan/ton, 524 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6520 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 2344 yuan/ton, 6210 yuan/ton, 527 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6560 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton previously [2]. - **Spot Market (Mid - stream)**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6950 - 7550, 6950 - 7250, and 7150 - 7600 respectively, compared to 7050 - 7550, 7000 - 7250, and 7200 - 7650 previously. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6500 - 6650, 6500 - 6600, and 6500 - 6650 respectively, compared to 6550 - 6700, 6550 - 6650, and 6550 - 6650 previously [2]. News - On Tuesday (October 14), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.70 per barrel, down $0.79 or 1.33% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.68 - $59.82. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.39 per barrel, down $0.93 or 1.47% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.50 - $63.63 [2].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.384 | 102.292 | 105.775 | 105.665 | 108.170 | 107.865 | 114.76 | 114.41 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.370 | 102.274 | 105.685 | 105.570 | 108.065 | 107.750 | 114.44 | 114.11 | | | 涨跌 | 0.014 | 0.018 | 0.090 | 0.095 | 0.105 | 0.115 | 0.320 | 0.300 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market continues to perform strongly, with gold and silver prices hitting new highs. The long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - haven asset is becoming more prominent, and its demand is expected to increase further. [1][2][18] - The copper market is affected by factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, and the Indonesian mine accident, which may lead to a supply - demand gap and support copper prices in the long term. [2][19] - The crude oil market has a short - term downward breakthrough trend, although the demand is expected to grow in the next two years according to OPEC's report. [3][12] - The stock index is likely to maintain a long - term upward trend, but short - term fluctuations may increase due to Sino - US trade issues. The market style may become more balanced in the fourth quarter. [9] - The bond market is expected to be supported by a loose monetary policy, and the price of bond futures is recommended to be bullish. [10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns International News - US President Trump hinted at canceling new tariffs on China. [5] - The leaders of the US, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar signed a cease - fire agreement for Gaza at the "Peace Summit" in Sharm El - Sheikh. [1][3][12] Domestic News - In September, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 8% year - on - year. The export was 2.34 trillion yuan, up 8.4%, and the import was 1.7 trillion yuan, up 7.5%. China's rare earth exports in September decreased for the third consecutive month. [6] Industry News - China has officially implemented a special port fee for US ships starting today. [7] 2. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 10/12 | 10/13 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | S&P 500 | Points | 6,552.51 | 6,654.72 | 102.21 | 1.56% | | European STOXX50 | Points | 4,701.04 | 4,719.93 | 18.89 | 0.40% | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,978.00 | 14,805.00 | - 173.00 | - 1.16% | | US Dollar Index | Points | 98.82 | 99.26 | 0.44 | 0.44% | | ICE Brent Crude Continuous | USD/Barrel | 62.09 | 63.39 | 1.30 | 2.09% | | London Gold Spot | USD/Ounce | 4,017.85 | 4,110.02 | 92.17 | 2.29% | | London Silver | USD/Ounce | 50.13 | 52.33 | 2.20 | 4.39% | | LME Aluminum | USD/Ton | 2,746.00 | 2,757.00 | 11.00 | 0.40% | | LME Copper | USD/Ton | 10,374.00 | 10,802.00 | 428.00 | 4.13% | | LME Zinc | USD/Ton | 2,984.50 | 3,012.00 | 27.50 | 0.92% | | LME Nickel | USD/Ton | 15,215.00 | 15,180.00 | - 35.00 | - 0.23% | | ICE No.11 Sugar | Cents/Pound | 16.1 | 15.57 | - 0.53 | - 3.29% | | ICE No.2 Cotton | Cents/Pound | 63.77 | 63.54 | - 0.23 | - 0.36% | | CBOT Soybeans | Cents/Bushel | 1,007.00 | 1,008.25 | 1.25 | 0.12% | | CBOT Soybean Meal Current | USD/Short Ton | 275.60 | 274.50 | - 1.10 | - 0.40% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Current | Cents/Pound | 49.97 | 50.53 | 0.56 | 1.12% | | CBOT Wheat Current | Cents/Bushel | 498.75 | 496.75 | - 2.00 | - 0.40% | | CBOT Corn Current | Cents/Bushel | 413.50 | 410.50 | - 3.00 | - 0.73% | [8] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: After the high - level shock in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection stage again, with a high probability of maintaining a long - term upward trend. Short - term fluctuations may increase due to Sino - US trade issues. The market style may become more balanced in the fourth quarter. [9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond dropped to 1.754%. With a loose monetary policy expected, the price of Treasury bond futures is recommended to be bullish. [10][11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC rebounded 0.27% at night. Although OPEC expects oil demand to grow in the next two years, the short - term trend is downward. [3][12] - **Methanol**: Ma fell 0.26% at night. With high inventory and expected import arrivals, methanol is short - term bullish. [13] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices fell on Monday. With smooth supply and slow inventory reduction, the price is expected to be weak in the short term. [14] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are weakly operating. The price follows the cost - end fluctuations, and the market sentiment is cautious. [15] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continue to be weak, and soda ash futures closed positive. The market is cautious, and the focus is on consumption in autumn and policy changes. [16][17] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold benefits from concerns about the resurgence of the trade war and expectations of two interest rate cuts this year. It is expected to strengthen as the ultimate safe - haven asset. [2][18] - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 1.64% at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long term. [2][19] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.13% at night. Domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and it follows copper prices in the short term. [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is supported, and there is an expectation of project resumption. [21] Black Commodities - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak, and short - term fluctuations are expected to intensify due to factors such as steel production and Sino - US trade issues. [22] - **Iron Ore**: With strong demand from steel mills and reduced global shipments, the iron ore market is expected to be bullish. [23] - **Steel**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market has a weak supply - demand balance, and hot - rolled coils perform better than rebar. [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Night - session prices of soybean and rapeseed meal rose. US soybean prices are expected to be weak, while domestic prices may rise due to supply concerns. [25] - **Oils and Fats**: Night - session prices were strong. Although short - term pressure exists due to inventory and trade issues, long - term support comes from the production season and bio - diesel policies. [26] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be weak due to supply pressure. [27][28] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak due to factors such as new - cotton supply and weak downstream demand. [29] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The text seems to have a wrong insertion, repeating the content of precious metals. No valid information about container shipping to Europe is provided. [30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. Tensions in Sino - US trade relations weakened the export prospects of US soybeans, depressing US soybean prices. Although the market strongly expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield per unit in this month's USDA report, the report is postponed due to the US government shutdown, suppressing market trading. With US soybeans being harvested and listed, reduced export demand will continue to pressure US soybean prices, which are expected to be weak. In the domestic market, the previous valuation of Sino - US trade improvement will be revised upwards due to the renewed trade conflict. The expectation of tight supply in the later period and the expectation of tariff upgrades will boost the performance of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: The night - session of oils and fats showed a strong performance. The MPOB released this month's supply - demand report. In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.841 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.428 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%, basically in line with market expectations. As of the end of September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2.3609 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is higher than expected. Meanwhile, uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oils and fats market. However, in the medium to long term, the Southeast Asian production areas will enter the production - reduction season, and international biodiesel policies will continue to support the consumption demand for oils and fats [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8,268, 9,364, and 10,022 respectively, with changes of - 34, - 74, and - 39, and percentage changes of - 0.41%, - 0.78%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2,932, 2,400, and 8,844 respectively, with changes of 10, - 58, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.34%, - 2.36%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 320, - 538, and - 380 respectively, compared with previous values of - 296, - 574, and - 602. The current values of ratios - spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 were - 74, 3, and 458 respectively, compared with previous values of - 85, 0, and 396 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,473 ringgit/ton, 1,008 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 275 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 26, 1, 1, and - 1, and percentage changes of - 0.58%, 0.12%, 1.12%, and - 0.40% [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8,470 and 8,570 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.82% and - 0.81%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9,320 and 9,260 respectively, with percentage changes of - 2.10% and - 2.11%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10,270 and 10,270 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.96% and - 1.06% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and other products were 202, etc. The current spot spreads such as the difference between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil was - 560, compared with a previous value of - 590 [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - The current values of import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 465, 29, etc., compared with previous values of - 60, - 210, etc [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products were 25,444, 1,500, etc., compared with previous values of 25,444, 1,570, etc [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - As of October 11, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 11.1%, compared with 8.2% last week, 9.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 16.9% [2]. - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) of the United States will release its September report on Thursday. Analysts expect the soybean crushing volume in September to be around 185 million to 190 million bushels, compared with 189.81 million bushels in August and 178.2 million bushels in the same period last year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core View of the Report - After experiencing high - level fluctuations in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection phase again, with a high probability of maintaining a bullish trend. In the short term, due to the impact of Sino - US trade, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase. From a capital perspective, the domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents are likely to increase their allocation of equity assets. Additionally, with the Fed's interest rate cuts and the appreciation of the RMB, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the expected increase in Q4 pro - growth policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4613.80, 4600.40, 4592.20, and 4571.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4585.60, 4572.40, 4562.60, and 4541.20 respectively, with declines of - 29.60, - 31.20, - 30.60, and - 30.00. The trading volumes were 44944.00, 9140.00, 97200.00, and 16995.00, and the open interests were 49745.00, 12664.00, 163856.00, and 57094.00, with changes of - 1285.00, 3532.00, 885.00, and 1646.00 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts were 2976.00, 2973.60, 2975.80, and 2974.00, and the previous day's closing prices were 2966.20, 2962.60, 2961.60, and 2962.00, with declines of - 7.80, - 10.60, - 11.60, and - 10.60. The trading volumes were 19083.00, 3473.00, 44552.00, and 6422.00, and the open interests were 20024.00, 4171.00, 65965.00, and 13363.00, with changes of - 1061.00, 1081.00, - 1723.00, and - 517.00 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts were 7382.00, 7311.20, 7266.00, and 7100.60, and the previous day's closing prices were 7350.00, 7278.00, 7231.00, and 7059.80, with declines of - 39.60, - 42.00, - 41.60, and - 49.40. The trading volumes were 42277.00, 11392.00, 101843.00, and 21216.00, and the open interests were 49319.00, 22616.00, 143038.00, and 52606.00, with changes of - 1211.00, 3775.00, 2838.00, and 2103.00 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts were 7514.20, 7421.80, 7340.40, and 7120.00, and the previous day's closing prices were 7476.80, 7395.00, 7305.80, and 7077.60, with declines of - 42.80, - 32.40, - 40.60, and - 49.80. The trading volumes were 65213.00, 20080.00, 169889.00, and 31368.00, and the open interests were 68201.00, 28943.00, 190790.00, and 83351.00, with changes of - 2755.00, 6744.00, 7523.00, and 2846.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4593.98, 2967.21, 7376.56, and 7519.76 respectively, with declines of - 0.50, - 0.26, - 0.29, and - 0.19. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 315.01, 70.16, 258.03, and 288.40, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 7140.02, 1857.83, 4732.86, and 4709.91 respectively [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries in the CSI 300 industry index, the raw materials industry had a growth rate of 1.93%, while industries such as optional consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, etc. had declines, with optional consumption at - 2.02%, pharmaceutical and healthcare at - 2.33% [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts Basis**: The previous day's basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) against the CSI 300 were - 8.38, - 21.58, - 31.38, and - 52.78 respectively, compared to - 3.03, - 16.43, - 24.63, and - 45.03 two days ago [1]. - **IH Contracts Basis**: The previous day's basis of IH contracts against the SSE 50 were - 1.01, - 4.61, - 5.61, and - 5.21 respectively, compared to 1.15, - 1.25, 0.95, and - 0.85 two days ago [1]. - **IC Contracts Basis**: The previous day's basis of IC contracts against the CSI 500 were - 26.56, - 98.56, - 145.56, and - 316.76 respectively, compared to - 16.22, - 87.02, - 132.22, and - 297.62 two days ago [1]. - **IM Contracts Basis**: The previous day's basis of IM contracts against the CSI 1000 were - 42.96, - 124.76, - 213.96, and - 442.16 respectively, compared to - 19.62, - 112.02, - 193.42, and - 413.82 two days ago [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - Sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3889.50, 13231.47, 8189.82, and 3078.76 respectively, with declines of - 0.19%, - 0.93%, - 1.25%, and - 1.11% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25889.48, 48088.80, 6654.72, and 24387.93 respectively, with changes of - 1.52%, - 1.01%, 1.56%, and 0.60% [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China has officially implemented a special port - dues policy for US ships starting today. In September, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan (up 8.4%) and imports at 1.7 trillion yuan (up 7.5%), achieving year - on - year double - growth for four consecutive months. In the third quarter, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 6% year - on - year, achieving year - on - year growth for eight consecutive quarters. China's rare - earth exports in September were 4000.3 tons, showing a decline for the third consecutive month [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Since 24:00 on October 13, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively. As of the end of June 2025, during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's shipbuilding industry had received 64.2% of global new ship orders, 15.1 percentage points higher than during the "13th Five - Year Plan" period, ranking first in the world for 16 consecutive years. In September, the retail sales of the national passenger - car market reached 2.241 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. From January to September this year, the State Grid completed fixed - asset investments of over 420 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%, and it is expected that the annual investment scale will exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time this year [2].