Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping line's EC contract showed a decline, with the 06 contract closing at 1288.2 points, down 1.83%. Some shipping companies slightly reduced their May freight rates, and the average online price for large containers in the second half of May dropped to less than $1800, approaching the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. Although the expected traditional peak season for the European line has not been completely disproven, and the tariff policy has not significantly affected the cargo volume, it has added pressure on freight rates on the supply side. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward momentum, and the peak - season potential is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest View and Strategy Direction - The EC of the European container shipping line first rose and then fell. The 06 contract closed at 1288.2 points, down 1.83%. MSK kept its freight rate unchanged in the 21st week, quoting $1450 for large containers, while HPL and OOCL slightly reduced their May freight rates to $1700 for large containers. Most shipping companies in the second half of May continued to use the first - half rates, and some slightly reduced them. The average online price for large containers in the second half of May dropped to less than $1800, close to the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. The expected traditional peak season for the European line has not been completely disproven, and the tariff policy has not significantly affected the cargo volume but has added pressure on freight rates on the supply side. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward momentum, and the peak - season potential is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2506: The latest成交价 is 1288.2 points, down 1.83%, with a trading volume of 53581, a unilateral open interest of 39510, long positions of 22192, short positions of 23424, and a net long position of - 1232 [1]. - EC2508: The latest成交价 is 1559.6 points, up 3.72%, with a trading volume of 39237, a unilateral open interest of 36138, long positions of 23359, short positions of 24483, and a net long position of - 1124 [1]. - EC2510: The latest成交价 is 1287.9 points, up 1.22%, with a trading volume of 11837, a unilateral open interest of 17426, and no long or short positions reported [1]. - EC2512: The latest成交价 is 1460.7 points, up 0.21%, with a trading volume of 1893 and a unilateral open interest of 4091 [1]. - EC2602: The latest成交价 is 1291.4 points, down 0.43%, with a trading volume of 982 and a unilateral open interest of 2735 [1]. - EC2604: The latest成交价 is 1182.6 points, down 0.81%, with a trading volume of 849 and a unilateral open interest of 1144 [1]. - The total trading volume is 108379, the total unilateral open interest is 101044, the total long positions of the top 20 members are 45551, the total short positions of the top 20 members are 47907, and the net long position is - 2356 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly spot index: SCFIS is 1379.07 points, down 3.5%; SCFI is $1200/TEU, down 4.8% [1]. - Daily spot freight rates: TCI(20GP) is $1340/TEU, down 1.6%; TCI(40GP) is $2112/FEU, down 3.3% [1]. - The basis difference was 90.87 points on the previous trading day, up 11.3 points from the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - Capacity: The capacity deployment on the Asia - Europe route is 516078 TEU, a decrease of 1 TEU. The idle capacity ratio is 1.6%, with 1.0% for container ships over 17000 TEU, 0.4% for 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships, and 1.2% for 8000 - 11999 TEU container ships [4]. - Average speed: The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots, 15.55 knots for container ships over 17000 TEU, and 15.01 knots for 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships [4]. - Capacity in port: Rotterdam has 21.96 million TEU, Hamburg has 9.46 million TEU, and Singapore has 35.53 million TEU [4]. - Bypass situation: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 11, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 1, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [4]. - Time charter rates for 6 - 12 months: $105000 per day for 9000 TEU, $72000 per day for 6500 TEU, and $33750 per day for 2500 TEU [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The policies announced at the press conference can significantly boost market confidence in the future, and A - shares have risen significantly. It is believed that the stock index is likely to choose a direction in the short - term and experience a relatively long - lasting trend. The wide - straddle option buying strategy is more suitable for trading [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3817.20, 3785.00, 3725.80, and 3695.00 respectively, with increases of 20.80, 19.20, 17.40, and 16.00. The trading volumes were 28654.00, 56105.00, 12210.00, and 3405.00, and the open interest changes were - 707.00, 3041.00, 1900.00, and 1341.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2664.80, 2646.40, 2614.00, and 2611.00 respectively, with increases of 20.00, 17.40, 16.80, and 17.80. The trading volumes were 14757.00, 29460.00, 5485.00, and 1256.00, and the open interest changes were 1979.00, 2066.00, 834.00, and 442.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 5718.20, 5620.20, 5482.60, and 5386.00 respectively, with increases of 14.00, 0.80, - 1.00, and 0.20. The trading volumes were 31807.00, 54572.00, 14860.00, and 4699.00, and the open interest changes were - 27.00, 2968.00, 3257.00, and 1616.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 6059.60, 5953.20, 5774.00, and 5640.00 respectively, with increases of 144.80, 139.20, 133.80, and 129.40. The trading volumes were 38439.00, 107389.00, 21597.00, and 7833.00, and the open interest changes were - 771.00, 6886.00, - 64.00, and 2572.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 32.20, - 18.40, - 98.00, and - 106.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 31.40, - 16.20, - 83.60, and - 104.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 3831.63, 2670.70, 5740.33, and 6111.49 respectively, with increases of 0.61, 0.87, 1.93, and 0.14. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 161.17, 47.06, 162.77, and 233.92, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 2860.11, 806.55, 2170.60, and 2965.22 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different changes. For example, the energy, raw materials, and industrial sectors had increases of 1.05%, 0.57%, and 1.11% respectively, while the information technology sector had a decrease of - 0.34% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to the CSI 300 index were - 14.43, - 46.63, - 105.83, and - 136.63 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 index were - 5.90, - 24.30, - 56.70, and - 59.70 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts relative to the CSI 500 index were - 32.09, - 130.09, - 267.69, and - 364.29 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts relative to the CSI 1000 index were - 46.29, - 156.29, - 337.49, and - 471.49 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3342.67, 10104.13, 6294.55, and 1996.51 respectively, with increases of 0.80%, 0.22%, - 0.20%, and 0.51% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 22691.88, 36779.66, 5631.28, and 23115.96 respectively, with increases of 0.13%, - 0.14%, 0.43%, and - 0.58% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - **Domestic Policies**: Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point policy rate cut, and a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the structural monetary policy tool rate and the provident fund loan rate. The China Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will support Central Huijin and introduce reform measures for the STAR Market and the ChiNext [2] - **Reform of the Public Fund Industry**: The CSRC issued an action plan to promote the high - quality development of public funds, aiming to guide the industry from "scale - oriented" to "return - oriented" [2] - **US Federal Reserve**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged. After the rate decision, US stocks, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields declined, while gold rose slightly. Traders still expect three rate cuts this year [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Real Estate**: In the first quarter, the balance of real estate loans increased by more than 750 billion yuan, and the new individual housing loans reached the highest quarterly increase since 2022. The housing rental loans increased by 28% year - on - year. The approved "white - list" loans of commercial banks reached 6.7 trillion yuan [2] - **New Energy Vehicles**: In April, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.14 million, a 42% year - on - year increase. Tesla China's wholesale sales in April were 58,459, a 6% year - on - year decrease [2] - **Finance**: The China Financial Regulatory Administration approved the preparation of Xingyin Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd. by Industrial Bank [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - **Market Performance**: The US three major indexes rose. In the previous trading day, the stock index opened significantly higher, with the national defense and military industry and banking sectors leading the gains, and the media sector leading the losses. The total trading volume of the whole market was 1.51 trillion yuan [2] - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to use the wide - straddle option buying strategy for trading [2]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - Analysts predict the 2025/2026 US soybean yield to be 4.338 billion bushels, with a range of 4.3 - 4.4 billion bushels, lower than the USDA's 4.37 billion bushels from the Agricultural Outlook Forum [2] - Anec expects Brazil's May 2025 soybean exports to be 12.6 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 1.87 million tons, both lower than last year [2] - Protein meal: Night - trading of soybean and rapeseed meal oscillated. The market is cautious about the Sino - US economic and trade talks. US soybean exports face pressure, and the abundant domestic supply in Q2 will pressure prices [2] - Oils: Night - trading of palm oil was weakly oscillating, while soybean and rapeseed oils rose. The short - term domestic soybean supply is tight, but will be sufficient in Q2. Palm oil fundamentals are weaker due to the production - increasing season [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, etc. are given, with price changes and percentage changes. For example, soybean oil rose 26 points (0.34%), palm oil fell 60 points (-0.75%) [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc. are presented, showing current and previous values [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. are provided, along with price changes and percentage changes. For example, BMD palm oil fell 94 points (-2.42%) [1] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions are given, with percentage changes. For example, Tianjin's first - grade soybean oil rose 0.12% [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads are presented, showing current and previous values [1] Import and Crushing Profit - **Values and Changes**: Import and crushing profit values for different products are given, showing current and previous values. For example, the profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil improved from - 838 to - 769 [1] Warehouse Receipts - **Quantities and Changes**: Warehouse receipt quantities for different products are provided, showing current and previous values. For example, the soybean oil warehouse receipt quantity remained at 5,355 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. After the Fed's interest rate decision, U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields declined, while gold rose slightly. Traders still expect the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year before July [4]. - Gold continued to be strong, while silver oscillated weakly. Concerns about tariff increases and geopolitical conflicts, along with central bank gold - buying demand, supported the gold price. The market is concerned about the scale of tariff escalation, and future economic data may show a more obvious stagflation trend [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For gold futures (沪金2506, 沪金2512), the current prices are 800.20 and 806.68 respectively, with daily increases of 0.68% and 0.79%. For silver futures (沪银2506, 沪银2512), the current prices are 8146.00 and 8222.00 respectively, with daily decreases of 1.08% and 1.01% [2]. Spot Market - The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T+D, London Gold, and London Gold (in dollars per ounce) were 792.87, 796.45, and 3431.105 respectively, with daily increases of 1.72%, 5.25%, and 5.88%. The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Silver T+D and London Silver (in dollars per ounce) were 8221.00 and 33.21 respectively, with daily increases of 0.71% and 3.78% [2]. Inventory - The current values of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory (in kilograms, daily), Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory (in kilograms, daily), COMEX gold inventory (daily), and COMEX silver inventory (daily) are 15,648, 959,785, 40,607,507, and 501,316,990 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the changes are 0, 96.00, -281,064.04, and 673016 respectively [2]. Related Derivatives - The current values of the spdr gold ETF holdings (in tons), SLV silver ETF holdings (in tons), CFTC speculators' net positions (silver), and CFTC speculators' net positions (gold) are 44315, 44315, 33486, and 32895 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the changes are 1.00, 1.00, 481, and -1451 respectively [2]. Macroeconomic News - The Fed can be patient and does not need to rush to cut interest rates. Tariffs are the main factor driving inflation expectations. The impact of tariffs has been much greater than expected. If tariffs increase significantly as announced, there will be higher inflation and lower employment [4]. - The U.S. Vice - President hopes that the European market will open to U.S. goods. The EU will announce details of counter - measures against U.S. tariffs if the negotiation fails [4]. - Due to concerns about U.S. tariffs on imported drugs, pharmaceutical manufacturers are hoarding large amounts of inventory. In March, U.S. drug imports increased by $20 billion [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On May 7, the central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 335.3 billion yuan due to 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. Starting from May 8, the central bank adjusted the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate from 1.50% to 1.40%, and announced a series of monetary policy adjustments including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the deposit - reserve ratio and interest rate cuts for various policy tools. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the economic outlook uncertainty increased. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. The real estate market shows signs of improvement, with increased real estate loan balances and growing investment value recognized by some international investment institutions. The short - term market interest rates generally declined, and the yields of key - term Chinese and overseas government bonds changed differently. The short - end government bond futures prices are expected to be supported by the loose market funds, while the long - end government bond futures prices may fluctuate more if the tariff negotiation makes progress [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, government bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2506 contract fell 0.18%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. The open interest of some contracts decreased, while that of others increased. The cross - period spreads of some contracts also changed [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main government bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally declined. For instance, the SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 4.6bp, the DR007 rate dropped 4.19bp, and the GC007 rate dropped 5.8bp [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Government Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term Chinese government bonds changed differently. The 10Y government bond yield rose 1.76bp to 1.65%, and the long - short (10 - 2) government bond yield spread was 15.26bp [2]. - **Overseas Key - term Government Bond Yields**: The 10Y US government bond yield dropped 4bp, the 10Y German government bond yield dropped 1bp, and the 10Y Japanese government bond yield rose 3.5bp [2]. Macroeconomic News - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, adjusted the reverse repurchase operation rate, cut the deposit - reserve ratio, and lowered various policy interest rates to support the real economy [3]. - **Real Estate Market**: In the first quarter, real estate loan balances increased, and the investment value of the Chinese real estate market is gradually emerging. The financial regulatory authorities will improve relevant financing systems to support the real estate market [3]. - **Fed Policy**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the economic outlook uncertainty increased. The market expects interest rate cuts [3]. - **US - EU Trade**: The US - EU trade negotiation is progressing slowly, and the EU may announce counter - measures if the negotiation fails [3]. Market Comment and Strategy - The short - end government bond futures prices are expected to be supported by the loose market funds, while the long - end government bond futures prices may fluctuate more if the tariff negotiation makes progress. The central bank may increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation according to the economic and financial situation [3].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the 20250508 Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report on Polyolefins (LL&PP) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - LL and PP futures prices showed increases on the previous day, with LL's 1 - month contract rising 58 yuan to 6979 yuan, a 0.84% increase; PP's 1 - month contract rising 53 yuan to 6952 yuan, a 0.77% increase [2] - The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, with significant changes in open interest, such as a decrease of 12,547 in LL's 9 - month contract and an increase of 3,754 in PP's 1 - month contract [2] - The spreads between different contracts also changed, for example, the 1 - month to 5 - month spread of LL increased from - 309 to - 284 [2] Group 3: Raw Materials and Spot Market - The prices of raw materials such as methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane had some fluctuations, while the prices of some (semi) - finished products like PP recycled materials and North China powder remained stable [2] - In the spot market, the price ranges of LL and PP in different regions had minor changes, with some price adjustments by Sinopec and PetroChina [2] Group 4: News and Market Commentary - On Wednesday, May 7, 2025, the settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures decreased, with WTI down 1.02 dollars to 58.07 dollars per barrel, a 1.73% decrease; Brent down 1.03 dollars to 61.12 dollars per barrel, a 1.66% decrease [2] - On Wednesday, the polyolefin futures market closed positive but fell at night. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined, but due to cost fluctuations, there is resistance to downward movement at low valuations. The press conference of the State Council Information Office released many positive signals, and the implementation effect of stimulus policies should be followed up [2]

I. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating II. Core Viewpoints - The price of crude oil futures in Europe and the United States continued to decline due to OPEC and its eight allied countries accelerating production increases, triggering concerns about more supply. But the situation in the Middle East may deteriorate, narrowing the decline in international oil prices at the end of the session. Short - term outlook for oil prices is bearish [3]. - The domestic methanol market is mainly bullish in the short - term. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants increased, while the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventories dropped significantly [3]. III. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Crude Oil - SC near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 490.0, up 10.0 (2.08%) from the day before. The trading volume was 9, and the open interest was 2,456, with a decrease of 3 [2]. - SC next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 471.1, down 12.5 (-2.58%) from the day before. The trading volume was 128,314, and the open interest was 22,870, with a decrease of 3,357 [2]. - WTI near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 58.38, down 0.60 (-1.02%) from the day before. The trading volume was 167,984, and the open interest was 226,780, with an increase of 4,207 [2]. - WTI next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 57.94, down 0.50 (-0.86%) from the day before. The trading volume was 373,281, and the open interest was 587,561, with a decrease of 18,868 [2]. - Brent near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 60.25, down 1.20 (-1.95%) from the day before. The trading volume was 236,097, and the open interest was 357,456, with an increase of 13,396 [2]. - Brent next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 59.97, down 1.11 (-1.82%) from the day before [2]. Methanol - 01 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2316, down 25.0 (-1.07%) from the day before. The trading volume was 18,626, and the open interest was 116,830, with an increase of 4,357 [2]. - 05 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2311, down 44.0 (-1.87%) from the day before. The trading volume was 30,174, and the open interest was 7,735, with a decrease of 23,333 [2]. - 09 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2251, down 27.0 (-1.19%) from the day before. The trading volume was 494,490, and the open interest was 635,491, with a decrease of 19,453 [2]. 2. Spot Market Crude Oil - International market: OPEC's basket of crude oil price was 61.80, Brent DTD was 61.47, Russian ESPD was 58.29, Oman was 62.12, Dubai was 62.18, and Cinta was 60.42 [2]. - Domestic market: The price of Daqing crude oil was 59.79, Shengli was 59.10. The Chinese gasoline wholesale price index was 8,046 yuan/ton, and the Chinese diesel wholesale price index was 6,800 yuan/ton. FOB naphtha in Singapore was 62.18, and the ex - factory price of aviation kerosene was 5,445 yuan/ton [2]. Methanol - The spot price in the port was 0 US dollars, in East China was 2492.5 yuan, and in North China was 2395 yuan [2]. 3. Market Analysis and Strategy Crude Oil - OPEC and its eight allied countries will implement a daily production adjustment of 411,000 barrels starting from June 2025 based on the May 2025 production level, equivalent to a three - month increase [3]. - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran, which may lead to the deterioration of the Middle East situation [3]. Methanol - The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 77.38%, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. As of April 24, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 71.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47 percentage points but a year - on - year increase of 2.45 percentage points [3]. - Coastal methanol inventories were 58.1 tons as of April 24, down 10.93 tons (15.83%) from April 17, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.07%. The estimated tradable supply of methanol in coastal areas was around 20.4 tons. It is estimated that the arrival volume of imported methanol ships from April 25 to May 11 will be between 533,700 - 540,000 tons [3].

报告日期：2025 年 5 月 6 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：新关税担忧引发市场波澜 中国制造业与非制造业 PMI 环比双降，需求端收缩显著，但生产端仍处相对高位 （49.8%），新出口订单指数下跌至 44.7%，后续出口增长存疑，短期"抢出口" 虽支撑货运量增 1.3%，但外需疲态已显现。内需韧性分化，订单指数微降 2.3%， 消费品行业 PMI 仅降 0.6%，消费支撑力较强。美国一季度 GDP 年化下降 0.3%， 不过自 3 月市场已经对一季度的经济萎缩有一定心理准备。4 月的非农数据显示 美国就业市场仍然强劲，此背景下 5 月美联储大概率继续按兵不动，同时市场对 6 月降息的预期有所降温。关税谈判方面仍未有明显进展，而昨日特朗普表示要 对非美国制作影片征收 100%关税引发关税规模再度升级的担忧。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、铜 原油：欧佩克及其同盟八国进一步加快增产，引发对更多供应的担忧，欧美原油 期货继续下跌。八个参与国将在 2025 年 6 月从 2025 年 5 月所需的生产水平开始 实施每天 41.1 万桶的生产调整，这相当于三个月的增量。欧佩克及其减产同盟 国八国加速减产的决定公布后 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overseas market was bullish during the May Day holiday, and the A50 index rose. In the previous trading session, the stock index showed a mixed trend, with the computer sector leading the gains and the banking sector leading the losses. The total trading volume of the whole market was 1.19 trillion yuan. Among them, IH2505 fell 0.48%, IF2505 fell 0.17%, IC2505 rose 0.31%, and IM2505 rose 0.69%. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indices have a relatively high proportion of domestic demand, and if the disputes between China and the United States continue, they will be less affected and have higher defensiveness. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have a relatively large proportion of growth industries, and consumer electronics products with more exports are more affected by the China-US tariff disputes. From the current trend, the A-share market still has resilience. In the future, the focus will be on the effective policies introduced by China to boost the domestic economy. After a short-term continuous shock, it is expected to choose a direction soon [2] Summary by Directory I. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two-day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 3757.80, 3724.80, 3670.00, and 3645.60 respectively; the previous day's closing prices were 3752.00, 3716.20, 3663.20, and 3637.80 respectively, with price drops of -6.40, -9.60, -7.00, and -6.00, and declines of -0.17, -0.26, -0.19, and -0.16 respectively. The trading volumes were 20059.00, 42386.00, 6879.00, and 2373.00 respectively; the open interests were 48409.00, 136357.00, 55233.00, and 7044.00 respectively, with increases of 2138.00, 2217.00, 390.00, and 1225.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two-day closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 2639.00, 2621.20, 2589.80, and 2583.40 respectively; the previous day's closing prices were 2627.20, 2609.20, 2578.00, and 2575.80 respectively, with price drops of -12.80, -14.00, -12.80, and -10.40, and declines of -0.48, -0.53, -0.49, and -0.40 respectively. The trading volumes were 10889.00, 26366.00, 3669.00, and 774.00 respectively; the open interests were 17334.00, 44590.00, 17493.00, and 1567.00 respectively, with increases of 40.00, 1522.00, 576.00, and 75.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two-day closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 5573.80, 5487.20, 5360.80, and 5275.60 respectively; the previous day's closing prices were 5590.20, 5497.00, 5365.60, and 5273.00 respectively, with price increases of 17.40, 9.40, 5.00, and 6.40, and increases of 0.31, 0.17, 0.09, and 0.12 respectively. The trading volumes were 21929.00, 38409.00, 8218.00, and 3883.00 respectively; the open interests were 46587.00, 94639.00, 44900.00, and 11692.00 respectively, with decreases of -1258.00, -1230.00, -57.00, and an increase of 1431.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two-day closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 5868.00, 5773.60, 5610.00, and 5478.20 respectively; the previous day's closing prices were 5905.40, 5801.40, 5627.60, and 5500.60 respectively, with price increases of 40.60, 32.40, 20.60, and 22.20, and increases of 0.69, 0.56, 0.37, and 0.41 respectively. The trading volumes were 36606.00, 108819.00, 20491.00, and 6528.00 respectively; the open interests were 61187.00, 153214.00, 69465.00, and 18314.00 respectively, with decreases of -2106.00, -6247.00, -513.00, and an increase of 694.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were -35.80, -18.00, -93.20, and -104.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of -33.00, -17.80, -86.60, and -94.40 respectively [1] II. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 3770.57, the trading volume was 143.68 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 2448.20 billion yuan; the previous two - day value was 3775.08, 111.51 billion lots, and 1974.63 billion yuan respectively [1] - **Shanghai Composite 50 Index**: The previous two - day value of the index points was 2645.51, the trading volume was 28.04 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 538.94 billion yuan, with a decline of -0.47% [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 5631.82, the trading volume was 138.39 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 1816.17 billion yuan; the previous two - day value was 5604.91, 126.74 billion lots, and 1580.33 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.48% [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 5950.12, the trading volume was 195.46 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 2417.59 billion yuan; the previous two - day value was 5903.38, 186.02 billion lots, and 2194.12 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.79% [1] - **Industry Indexes**: The previous values of the indexes of energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption were 2075.95, 2434.94, 2000.01, and 6326.87 respectively; the previous two - day values were 2080.22, 2445.34, 2003.97, and 6305.36 respectively, with changes of -0.21%, -0.43%, -0.20%, and 0.34% respectively. The previous values of the indexes of major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, and information technology were 22704.05, 7773.03, 6002.97, and 2298.09 respectively; the previous two - day values were 22637.13, 7694.19, 6074.25, and 2277.33 respectively, with changes of 0.30%, 1.02%, -1.17%, and 0.91% respectively. The previous values of the indexes of telecommunications and public utilities were 2712.24 and 2610.29 respectively; the previous two - day values were 2699.67 and 2619.69 respectively [1] III. Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300**: The previous value of the basis of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF far quarter - CSI 300 were -18.57, -54.37, -107.37, and -132.77 respectively; the previous two - day values were -17.28, -50.28, -105.08, and -129.48 respectively [1] - **Shanghai Composite 50**: The previous value of the basis of IH current month - Shanghai Composite 50, IH next month - Shanghai Composite 50, IH next quarter - Shanghai Composite 50, and IH far quarter - Shanghai Composite 50 were -5.96, -23.96, -55.16, and -57.36 respectively; the previous two - day values were -6.51, -24.31, -55.71, and -62.11 respectively [1] - **CSI 500**: The previous value of the basis of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC far quarter - CSI 500 were -41.62, -134.82, -266.22, and -358.82 respectively; the previous two - day values were -31.11, -117.71, -244.11, and -329.31 respectively [1] - **CSI 1000**: The previous value of the basis of IM current month - CSI 1000, IM next month - CSI 1000, IM next quarter - CSI 1000, and IM far quarter - CSI 1000 were -44.72, -148.72, -322.52, and -449.52 respectively; the previous two - day values were -35.38, -129.78, -293.38, and -425.18 respectively [1] IV. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index are not fully provided in the report [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were 22504.68, 36830.69, 5650.38, and 23344.54 respectively; the previous two - day values were 22119.41, 36452.30, 5686.67, and 23086.65 respectively, with changes of 1.74%, 1.04%, -0.64%, and 1.12% respectively [1] V. Macroeconomic Information - **Trade Policy**: US President Trump authorized the Department of Commerce and the US Trade Representative to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US, and he is negotiating trade agreements with many countries [2] - **Regional Financial Cooperation**: People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng attended and presided over the ASEAN + 3 Finance Ministers' and Central Bank Governors' Meeting. The meeting passed the establishment of a rapid financing facility funded by freely usable currencies such as the RMB under the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization [2] - **Hong Kong Monetary Authority Intervention**: Due to the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate hitting the strong - side convertibility undertaking, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold a record 60.543 billion Hong Kong dollars on Tuesday, selling for three consecutive days with a cumulative sale of 116.614 billion Hong Kong dollars to maintain the exchange rate stability [2] - **Consumption during May Day**: During the May Day holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous. The sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The subsidy applications for car trade - ins exceeded 60,000, driving new car sales of 8.8 billion yuan; consumers bought 3.56 million household appliances, driving sales of 11.9 billion yuan; and bought 2.42 million digital products, driving sales of 6.4 billion yuan [2] - **China - US Economic Relations**: Chinese Ambassador to the US Xie Feng pointed out that China - US economic and trade cooperation is generally balanced and win - win. Imposing tariffs harms both sides, disrupts business operations and people's consumption, and causes fluctuations in the global financial market [2] VI. Industry Information - **Data Infrastructure**: The National Data Bureau will increase central financial investment to support the construction of data infrastructure projects, use ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds, and accelerate the formulation of the national data infrastructure plan [2] - **Digital China Summit**: The 8th Digital China Construction Summit ended. It signed 455 digital economy key projects with a total investment of 228 billion yuan, an increase of 8% and 12% respectively compared with the previous summit [2] - **Housing Provident Fund**: The Kunming Housing Provident Fund Management Center in Yunnan Province adjusted the maximum housing provident fund loan amount from 500,000 yuan for single - contributor families and 800,000 yuan for double - contributor families to 700,000 yuan and 1 million yuan respectively [2] - **Banking Promotion**: During the May Day consumption season, many banks launched time - limited promotions for large - value credit cards and standby funds, and a new round of consumer loan interest rate discounts was launched, with some banks' consumer loan interest rates dropping to a minimum of 3% [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2506 | TS2509 | TF2506 | TF2509 | T2506 | T2509 | TL2506 | TL2509 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.366 | 102.628 | 106.100 | 106.385 | 109.000 | 109.145 | 120.76 | 121 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.332 | 102.592 | 106.070 | 106.345 | 109.120 | 109.245 | 120.98 | 121.24 | | | 涨跌 | 0.034 | 0.036 | 0.030 | 0.040 | -0.120 | -0.100 | -0.220 | -0.240 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.03% | 0 ...