1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Cautiously Bearish (Possibility) | Cautiously Bullish (Possibility) | | --- | --- | --- | | Stock Index (IH) | | √ | | Stock Index (IF) | | √ | | Stock Index (IC) | | √ | | Stock Index (IN) | | √ | | Crude Oil | √ | | | | √ | | | Rubber | | √ | | Rebar | √ | | | Hot Rolled Coil | -1 | | | Iron Ore | √ | | | Gold | | √ | | Silver | | √ | | Aluminum | | √ | | Lithium Carbonate | | √ | | Apple | √ | | | Corn | | √ | | Container Shipping to Europe | -1 | | [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflows [11]. - The long - term upward trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors are advised to buy on dips during short - term adjustments [3][20]. - Short - term rubber prices are expected to remain strong [2][16]. - The crude oil market is under pressure due to factors such as the possible resumption of diplomatic communication between the US and Iran and the improvement of the situation in Venezuela [2][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News Concerns on the Day International News - The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate of the US in Q3 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, reaching the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [6]. Domestic News - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on January 23. After deducting the 200 billion yuan of matured MLF in January, the net injection through MLF operations is 700 billion yuan [7]. Industry News - The sales revenue of China's intelligent equipment manufacturing industry in 2025 increased by 28.1% year - on - year, with industrial robots and special operation robots manufacturing growing by 17.4% and 42.1% respectively [8]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 index rose 0.55%, the European STOXX 50 index rose 0.87%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.35%, the US dollar index fell 0.50%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.41%, London gold rose 2.18%, London silver rose 3.33%, LME aluminum rose 0.72%, LME copper rose 0.23%, LME zinc rose 1.83%, LME nickel rose 0.58%, ICE No. 11 sugar rose 1.29%, ICE No. 2 cotton fell 0.61%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.09%, CBOT soybean meal rose 1.61%, CBOT lean hogs fell 0.57%, CBOT wheat rose 1.48%, and CBOT corn rose 0.53% [10]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend in 2026, driven by multiple factors. The market is shifting from valuation expansion to profit - driven [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized. The central bank's monetary policy and fiscal policy in 2026 will continue to be moderately loose, with room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 2.17% at night. Diplomatic communication may resume between the US and Iran, and the situation in Venezuela has improved [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.46% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased slightly, and coastal methanol inventories increased slightly [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber continued to rebound on Thursday, driven by the strong performance of synthetic rubber. Short - term prices are expected to remain strong [2][16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro factors [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Glass supply and demand are gradually improving, while soda ash still faces inventory digestion pressure [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals rebounded, with international gold and silver hitting new highs. The long - term upward trend is expected to continue, and short - term dips are buying opportunities [3][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell 0.43% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and copper prices may experience a phased correction [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.53% at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and zinc prices may correct after the release of the optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous market [22]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum rose 0.21% at night. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the long - term low inventory and supply restrictions provide support [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. The price is likely to rise rather than fall under the current demand logic [24][25]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated at night. The short - term decline of the futures price is limited, and attention should be paid to supply, iron production, and restocking [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with weak supply and demand and narrowing inventory decline [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [28]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal oscillated strongly at night. The harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans is accelerating, and domestic prices are under pressure from high inventory and expected high yield in South America [29]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils oscillated and adjusted at night. The prices of palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong in the short term [30]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar's main contract remained at a low level. The short - term price is expected to remain low due to seasonal supply pressure [31][32]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract oscillated strongly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [33]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: EC rose 0.58%. The freight rate is expected to decline rapidly before the Spring Festival, but the market is not very pessimistic about the April freight rate [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures remained at a low level overnight. The seasonal increase in supply pressure led to a pessimistic market sentiment. With the southern sugar mills in the peak crushing season, the seasonal increase in sugar supply is becoming more apparent. The unexpectedly high sugar imports in December suppressed the futures prices. On the spot market, prices were weak, and pre - holiday consumption showed no signs of improvement. It is expected to remain at a low level in the short term [2]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend overnight. Although the immediate profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the immediate cash flows of inland textile enterprises have been compressed to a low level, the inventory pressure of finished products is relatively limited. The operating rates of inland textile enterprises have decreased steadily, while those of Xinjiang textile enterprises remain strong. After the decline of Zhengzhou cotton prices, many textile enterprises locked in the basis for point - price trading. The rigid demand for cotton raw materials from textile enterprises still exists. In the short term, the expectation of production reduction has been reflected in the futures prices, and the market is expected to oscillate at a low level. Buying opportunities on dips can be considered [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Sugar Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of sugar contracts SR2609, SR2605, and SR2603 were 5178, 5158, and 5163 respectively, with increases of 17, 14, and 20, and growth rates of 0.33%, 0.27%, and 0.39% respectively. The 11 - number sugar contracts 2603, 2607, and 2605 had previous day's closing prices of 14.96, 14.46, and 14.77 respectively, with increases of 0.19, 0.11, and 0.1, and growth rates of 1.29%, 0.77%, and 0.68% respectively. The trading volumes and positions of each contract also showed different changes [1]. - **Cotton Futures**: No detailed futures - market data about cotton is provided in the given content. 3.2 Spot Market - **Sugar Spot**: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5340 and 5160 respectively. The basis for Liuzhou and Kunming relative to SR2509 are 177 and - 3 respectively. The current import prices of Brazilian sugar within and outside the quota are 3331 and 4239 respectively, and those of Thai sugar are 3847 and 4912 respectively [1]. - **Cotton Spot**: No relevant content provided 3.3 Industry Information - **Dairy and Beverage Data**: In December 2025, China's dairy production was 2.667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The cumulative dairy production in 2025 was 29.503 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. In December 2025, China's beverage production was 13.421 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The cumulative beverage production in 2025 was 179.253 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [2]. - **Sugar Production Data**: In December 2025, China's refined sugar production was 3.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The total refined sugar production in 2025 was 16.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9% [2]. - **Weather Information**: The yellow warning for freezing in Guangxi remained in effect, and freezing rain and snow would affect many areas [2]. - **Brazilian Sugar Cane Data**: In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,020 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - per - ton of cane (ATR) was 127.49 kg, a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The sugar - making ratio dropped significantly to 21.24%. The total ethanol production was 561 million liters, a year - on - year increase of 14.91%. As of January 1, 2026, in the 2025/2026 sugar - cane season, the central - southern region of Brazil had cumulatively crushed 600.4 million tons of sugar cane, a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.28%. The cumulative sugar production reached 40.222 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The ethanol cumulative production was 30.838 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.06% [2].

| | | 20260123申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | JL | | | | | | J | | | 1月 | | | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | 前1日收盘价 | 1367.0 | | 1131.5 | 1203.0 | 1863.0 | 1688.0 | 1758. 0 | | 前2日收盘价 | 1366. 5 | | 1129.0 | 1203.0 | 1872. 0 | 1683. 5 | 1758. 5 | | 煮跌 | Eil 0. 5 | | 2.5 | 0. 0 | -9.0 | 4.5 | -0.5 | | 煮跌幅 | 0. 04% સ્ત | | 0. 22% | 0. 00% | -0. 48% | 0. 27% | -0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market showed a strong and volatile trend at night. The soybean harvest rate in Brazil as of January 17 was 2.3%, higher than last week's 0.6% and last year's 1.2%, but lower than the five - year average of 3.2%. Positive talks between China and the US boosted the market's expectations for US soybean exports, and the upcoming biofuel policy also improved demand expectations, leading to a rebound in US soybean futures prices. However, high domestic soybean meal inventories and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans will continue to put pressure on prices [3]. - The oil market adjusted in a volatile manner at night. Malaysia's strong palm oil exports in January, a decline in production month - on - month, and a reduction in tariffs supported palm oil prices. Indonesia's revocation of the licenses of 28 palm oil plantation companies and the current production - reducing season raised concerns about production, making palm oil prices trend strongly recently. The upcoming US biofuel policy details are also expected to support soybean oil. In the short term, the oil market is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8084, 8944, 9002, 2768, 2396, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 40, 112, 55, 43, 19, and 26, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.50%, 1.27%, - 3.15%, 1.58%, 0.80%, and 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: There were detailed data on spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc., with comparisons between the current values and previous values [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4113 (ringgit/ton), 1064.00 (cents/bushel), 53.74 (cents/pound), and 296.20 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were 48.0, - 1.0, - 0.3, and 4.7, with corresponding percentage changes of 1.18%, - 0.09%, - 0.57%, and 1.61% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: There were data on the spot prices of various oils, meals, and peanuts in different domestic regions, along with their percentage changes and spot basis [2]. - **Spreads**: There were also data on spot spreads such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, etc., with comparisons between the current values and previous values [2]. Import and Crushing Profits - There were data on the import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseeds, with comparisons between the current values and previous values [2]. Warehouse Receipts - There were data on the warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, with comparisons between the current values and previous values [2]. Industry Information - A US private exporter reported the sale of 192,350 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year. The Brazilian Soybean Crushers Association (ABIOVE) expected Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season to reach 177.124 million tons, up from 171.481 million tons in the previous season, and its soybean exports in 2026 to reach 111.5 million tons, up from 108.2 million tons in 2025 [3].

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6865 | 6814 | 6845 | 6599 | 6624 | 6649 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 6720 | 6666 | 6694 | 6493 | 6485 | 6519 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 145 | 148 | 151 | 106 | 139 | 130 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 2.16% | 2.22% | 2.26% | 1.63% | 2.14% | 1.99% | | 场 | 成交量 | 96 | 515971 | 24588 | 1226 | 422990 | 30196 | | | 持仓量 | 123 | 515524 | 53810 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - Northern markets may see firming prices as some slaughterhouses face procurement difficulties, while southern markets may continue to weaken as procurement is relatively smooth. Some markets are experiencing an expanding spread between standard and fat pigs, with larger spreads in Sichuan due to low large - pig inventories [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 11900, 11600, 11895, 12555, 13460, and 13430 respectively. Price changes were 0, 130, 75, 105, 85, and 40 with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, 1.13%, 0.63%, 0.84%, 0.64%, and 0.30%. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes were 8, 50734, 20045, 4279, 3632, and 870 respectively. Open interests were 49, 135450, 106785, 45044, 34436, and 17472, with changes of - 16, - 3059, 1672, - 261, 414, and 49 respectively. [2] - **Spread**: Current spreads for 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, and 11 - 1 months were 300, -295, -660, -905, 30, and 1530 respectively, compared to previous values of 430, -350, -630, -925, -15, and 1490. [2] Spot Market - **Prices in Different Regions**: Current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 13.13, 12.71, 12.78, 13.4, 12.37, and 12.85 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.06, -0.01, -0.32, -0.31, -0.36, and 0.01 compared to the previous day. [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 433 on the previous day, with no change from two days ago. [2]

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2026/1/23 | 星期五 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4724.20 | 4722.80 | 4687.80 | 4632.00 | 前日收盘价 | 4722.00 | 4719.40 | 4683.00 | 4626.00 | | | 涨跌 | -8.40 | -9.20 | -8.00 | -7.60 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | -0.1 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.408 | 102.444 | 105.835 | 105.845 | 108.150 | 108.120 | 112.17 | 112.29 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.430 | 102.462 | 105.880 | 105.875 | 108.200 | 108.190 | 112.25 | 112.36 | | | 涨跌 | -0.022 | -0.018 | -0.045 | -0.030 | -0.050 | -0.070 | -0.080 | -0.070 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber price continued to rebound on Thursday. With domestic production areas in the off - season and Thailand's northeastern areas expected to stop tapping in January while the southern part is in the peak season, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, has been continuously increasing. The short - term supply elasticity has weakened, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. The short - term rubber price is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalog Futures Market - RU, NR, and BR futures prices all rose, with increases of 105 (0.67%), 120 (0.95%), and 355 (2.98%) respectively. The trading volume of RU, NR, and BR was 182,370, 48,300, and 182,757 respectively. The open interest of RU increased by 355, NR decreased by 1231, and BR increased by 10 [2] - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3115, 3580, and 465 respectively, with changes of - 15, - 250, and - 235 compared to the previous values [2] - The RU basis, mixed - RU, and smoke sheet - RU were - 350, - 1135, and 2350 respectively, with changes compared to the previous values [2] Spot Market - The prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming, as well as smoke sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai, and mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan remained unchanged, with a growth rate of 0.00% [2] - The prices of Thai smoke sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex also remained unchanged, with a growth rate of 0.00% [2]

20260122申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低0.85%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向缺口，乐观情绪释 | | | 放后，铜价可能阶段性回调。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收低0.21%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 | | | 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产 | | | 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，在有色整体乐观情绪释放后，锌价可 | | | 能阶段性回调。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本 ...