| | 20250425申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 短期可能宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能宽幅区间波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能宽幅震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价 ，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 | | | 铜 | 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 | 短期可能宽 | | | 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨超1%。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 | | | 锌 | 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩 窄。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落 | 可能宽幅区 间波动 | | | 已部分消化产量增长预期。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注 ...

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：央行 MLF 操作，黄金强势依旧 中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。据新华网，有记者问：近 来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈判，甚至将会达成协议。你能否证实双方 有没有开始谈判？外交部发言人郭嘉昆说，这些都是假消息。"据我了解，中美 双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"特朗普考虑对华 关税分级方案。央视网援引《华尔街日报》报道，美方高级官员透露，特朗普政 府正考虑多种方案。中国央行 25 日将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，将实现净投放 5000 亿。本月有 1000 亿元 MLF 到期，在 4 月 25 日进行 6000 亿元 MLF 操作后， 将实现净投放 5000 亿元。3 月央行超量续作 MLF，实现净投放 630 亿元，是 2024 年 7 月以来 MLF 首次净投放，展现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、集运指数 原油：SC 上涨 1%。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产 量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。 他还表 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold prices have stabilized and rebounded. Fed officials have signaled potential rate cuts in June if there is clear evidence of the economic direction. Amid trade war disturbances, issues such as financial market turmoil, increased recession risks, de - dollarization, and US debt have become more prominent, causing gold prices to continuously reach new historical highs. Given the US debt pressure and the clear stagflation situation this year, gold remains strong overall but faces short - term adjustment pressure due to Trump's softened attitude and overbought conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2506 and沪金2512 are 796.46 and 801.52 respectively, with daily increases of 4.26 and 4.32, and daily increase rates of 0.54%. The current prices of沪银2506 and沪银2512 are 8320.00 and 8383.00 respectively, with daily increases of 24.00 and 20.00, and daily increase rates of 0.29% and 0.24% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of沪金2506 is 173030, and the trading volume is 1125865; the open interest of沪金2512 is 48336, and the trading volume is 47246. The open interest of沪银2506 is 321717, and the trading volume is 1098950; the open interest of沪银2512 is 104462, and the trading volume is 41908 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and London Gold (in dollars per ounce) were 793.25, 784.67, and 3347.95 respectively, with daily increases of 7.12, 14.20, and 60.01, and daily increase rates of 0.91%, 1.84%, and 1.83%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 8295.00, with a daily increase of 104.00 and a daily increase rate of 1.27%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 33.57, with a daily increase of 0.01 and a daily increase rate of 0.04% [2]. Inventory - **Changes**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 15,648 kg, unchanged from the previous day; the current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver is 914,191 kg, an increase of 1,405 kg from the previous day. The current COMEX gold inventory is 42,634,144, a decrease of 169,137.20 from the previous day; the current COMEX silver inventory is 496,891,266, an increase of 193011 from the previous day [2]. Related Assets - **Price Changes**: The current value of the US dollar index is 99.2880, a decrease of 0.62% from the previous day; the current value of the Standard & Poor's Index is 5484.77, an increase of 2.03% from the previous day; the current US Treasury yield is 4.4, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous day; the current price of Brent crude oil is 65.6, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day; the current US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.2879, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day [2]. Derivatives - **Position Changes**: The current position of the spdr Gold ETF is 44315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton from the previous day; the current position of the SLV Silver ETF is 44315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton from the previous day. The current net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 33486, an increase of 481 from the previous day; the current net position of CFTC speculators in gold is 32895, a decrease of 1451 from the previous day [2]. Macroeconomic Information - **US Economic Data**: In April, US tariff revenue surged by more than 60%, reaching at least $15 billion, setting a new monthly record. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 222,000, in line with expectations. The previous value was revised from 215,000 to 216,000. The US durable goods orders in March increased by 9.2% month - on - month, far exceeding the expected increase of 2.0%. The previous value was revised from an increase of 1.0% to an increase of 0.9% [2]. - **Fed Officials' Statements**: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on Thursday that the Fed has basically ruled out a rate cut in May. However, she also signaled that there is room for policy action in June if there is clear evidence of the economic direction [2].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2506 | TS2509 | TF2506 | TF2509 | T2506 | T2509 | TL2506 | TL2509 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.368 | 102.590 | 106.020 | 106.315 | 108.770 | 108.920 | 119.26 | 119.52 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.402 | 102.608 | 106.165 | 106.420 | 108.970 | 109.100 | 119.4 | 119.6 | | | 涨跌 | -0.034 | -0.018 | -0.145 | -0.105 | -0.200 | -0.180 | -0.140 | -0.080 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.0 ...

| | 1、据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚4月1-20日棕榈油产量预估增加19.88% | | --- | --- | | | 。2、据美国农业部，美国2024/2025年度大豆出口净销售为27.7万吨，前一周为55.5万吨；美国 | | | 2024/2025年度对中国大豆净销售0.2万吨，前一周为7.3万吨。3、USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至 | | 行业 | 4月22日当周，约21%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此前一周为23%，去年同期为20%。4、 | | 信息 | 据巴西植物油行业协会（Abiove）董事表示，预计在贸易冲突背景下，巴西将在2025年向中国出 | | | 口更多大豆以及向主要客户出口更多的豆粕。5、加拿大谷物委员会发布的数据显示，截至04月20 | | | 日当周，加拿大油菜籽出口量较前周减少31.76%至14.05万吨，之前一周为20.59万吨。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕偏弱运行。国内豆粕短期库存偏低，近期贸易商报价大幅上行。但二季度国 | | | 内进口大豆供应增加，供应压力将限制价格上方空间。新季美豆种植面积下降，目前早播种地区 | | | 已 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market shows increasing resilience. Future focus should be on China's policies to boost the domestic economy. It is recommended to take a cautious long - position approach in operations. The impact of tariffs on the market has decreased, but the outcome of the Sino - US tariff dispute remains uncertain [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Futures**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different periods increased, with the increase ranging from 1.60 to 6.00. The trading volume of IF next month was 48,747.00, the highest among IF contracts. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for the IF far - season contract which increased by 149.00 [1]. - **IH Futures**: The closing prices of IH contracts for different periods all increased, with an increase of about 8.00 - 8.80. The trading volume of IH next month was 24,156.00. The open interest of some contracts decreased, while the current - month and far - season contracts increased [1]. - **IC Futures**: The closing prices of IC contracts for different periods decreased, with a decrease of about 15.80 - 18.80. The trading volume of IC next month was 39,686.00. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for the far - season contract which increased by 385.00 [1]. - **IM Futures**: The closing prices of IM contracts for different periods decreased significantly, with a decrease of about 52.20 - 55.60. The trading volume of IM next month was 135,094.00. The open interest of some contracts decreased, while the far - season and next - season contracts increased [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased compared to the previous values [1]. 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.07%, the SSE 50 index increased by 0.25%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.52%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 1.07%. Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed different trends, with industries such as energy rising and industries such as telecommunications business falling [1]. 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different futures contracts relative to the corresponding spot indexes changed compared to the previous two - day values [1]. 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.58%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by 0.42%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.68% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.74%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.49%, the S&P 500 increased by 2.03%, and the DAX index increased by 0.47% [1]. 5. Macroeconomic Information - The 2025 version of the Market Access Negative List reduced the number of items from 117 in the 2022 version to 106, further relaxing market access restrictions. New business forms such as unmanned aerial vehicle operations and new - type tobacco products were included in the negative list [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified that there were no ongoing Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [2]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized promoting cross - border trade facilitation [2]. - The central bank governor stated China's stance on opening - up, free trade, and maintaining global economic and financial stability [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce said China will continue to expand high - level opening - up and support foreign - invested enterprises [2]. 6. Industry Information - Seven ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation plan for the digital and intelligent transformation of the pharmaceutical industry from 2025 - 2030 [2]. - In the first quarter, the cumulative telecom business revenue was 446.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%, and the telecom business volume increased by 7.7% at constant prices of the previous year [2]. - China is willing to resolve Sino - EU electric vehicle trade frictions through dialogue [2]. - In the first quarter, China's freight volume increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and transportation fixed - asset investment reached 675.2 billion yuan [2]. - Shanghai issued measures to cultivate the commercial space advanced manufacturing cluster, aiming for an industrial scale of 100 billion yuan by 2027 [2]. 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes rose. In the previous trading session, the stock indexes were divided, with the beauty care sector leading the gain and the computer sector leading the decline. The total trading volume was 1.14 trillion yuan. The financing balance on April 23 increased by 2.026 billion yuan to 1.799789 trillion yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) is operating weakly, with the 06 contract closing at 1358.4 points, a decline of 9.40%. Spot freight rates continue to be weak, and shipping companies' price cuts have intensified market pessimism about May and June freight rates. The 06 contract has basically followed the decline of spot freight rates and is now at a discount to the 04 contract [1]. - Under the influence of factors such as the regular recovery of cargo volume, the overflow of capacity from the US line, limited capacity control by shipping companies, and tariff policies, the central freight rate for large containers in early May has dropped below $2000. The market is pessimistic about May and June freight rates, but there are still expectations for the peak seasons in July and August. In the current weak reality, there is a lack of upward driving force, and caution is also exercised in terms of space [1]. - The current point of contention lies in the performance of the peak season. The market has become insensitive to shipping companies' price increases, and it is necessary to see the arrival of the inflection point of peak - season cargo volume. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend in the short term. Before the post - ponement of the peak - season point is falsified, the 06 - 08 reverse spread can continue to be monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest (Unilateral) | Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | Short Positions (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2504 | 1439 | - 0.42 | 87 | 909 | 743 | 824 | - 81 | | EC2506 | 1358.4 | - 9.40 | 86705 | 44468 | 24379 | 25911 | - 1532 | | EC2508 | 1577 | - 6.93 | 34562 | 33302 | 21679 | 22592 | - 913 | | EC2510 | 1299.6 | - 3.88 | 10589 | 16862 | - | - | - | | EC2512 | 1465 | - 4.06 | 2667 | 4248 | - | - | - | | EC2602 | 1304 | - 3.43 | 1116 | 2806 | - | - | - | | Total | - | - | 135726 | 102595 | 46801 | 49327 | - 2526 | [1] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Indicator | Latest Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Index (Weekly) - SCFIS (Points) | 1508.44 | 7.6% | 1402.35 | - 1.4% | 1422.42 | - 3.5% | | SCFI ($/TEU) | 1316 | - 2.9% | 1356 | 1.5% | 1336 | 1.4% | | Spot Freight Rate (Daily) - TCI(20GP) ($/TEU) | 1441 | 0.0% | 1441 | - 1.1% | 1457 | - 1.3% | | Spot Freight Rate (Daily) - TCI(40GP) ($/FEU) | 2281 | - 1.4% | 2315 | - 1.9% | 2359 | - 1.3% | [1] Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity and Related Information | Category | Details | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | Capacity - Asia - Europe Route Capacity Deployment (TEU) | - | 500628 | | Capacity - Increase in Asia - Europe Route Capacity Deployment (TEU) | - | 0 | | Capacity - Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | Global | 1.8 | | Capacity - Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | 17000TEU+ Container Ships | 0.9 | | Capacity - Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | 12000 - 16999TEU Container Ships | 0.6 | | Capacity - Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | 8000 - 11999TEU Container Ships | 1.5 | | Speed - Average Speed of Container Ships (Knots) | - | 13.98 | | Speed - Average Speed of 17000TEU+ Container Ships (Knots) | - | 15.4 | | Speed - Average Speed of 12000 - 16999TEU Container Ships (Knots) | - | 15.11 | | In - Port Capacity (10,000 TEU) | Rotterdam | 27.75 | | In - Port Capacity (10,000 TEU) | Hamburg Port | 11.73 | | In - Port Capacity (10,000 TEU) | Singapore | 35.78 | | Bypass Situation - Number of Ships Passing Through the Gulf of Aden (Vessels) | - | 7 | | Bypass Situation - North - bound Traffic Volume of the Suez Canal (Vessels) | - | 4 | | Bypass Situation - South - bound Traffic Volume of the Suez Canal (Vessels) | - | 2 | | Time - Charter Rates (6 - 12 months) - 9000TEU ($/day) | - | 106000 | | Time - Charter Rates (6 - 12 months) - 6500TEU ($/day) | - | 73500 | | Time - Charter Rates (6 - 12 months) - 2500TEU ($/day) | - | 33750 | [4]

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/24 星期四 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | 前两日收盘价 3760.60 | 3733.00 | 3675.40 | 3652.00 | | 前日收盘价 3765.20 | 3734.00 | 3677.00 | 3652.20 | | 涨跌 -2.80 沪深300 | -6.00 | -5.20 | -8.40 | | 涨跌幅 -0.07 | -0.16 | -0.14 | -0.23 | | 成交量 24629.00 | 48170.00 | 8497.00 | 2833.00 | | 持仓量 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2506 | TS2509 | TF2506 | TF2509 | T2506 | T2509 | TL2506 | TL2509 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.368 | 102.590 | 106.020 | 106.315 | 108.770 | 108.920 | 119.4 | 119.6 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.402 | 102.608 | 106.165 | 106.420 | 108.970 | 109.100 | 119.92 | 120.05 | | | 涨跌 | -0.034 | -0.018 | -0.145 | -0.105 | -0.200 | -0.180 | -0.520 | -0.450 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.0 ...

20250424申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 782.10 | 786.70 | 8347.00 | 8409.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 831.42 | 835.76 | 8174.00 | 8238.00 | | | 货 | | | | | | | | | 涨跌 | -49.32 | -49.06 | 173.00 | 171.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -5.93% | -5.87% | 2.12% | 2.08% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 204671 | 46497 | 339593 | 99907 | | | | 成交量 | 872580 | 42687 | 951417 | 29238 | | ...