1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The September trend of the stock index was more volatile compared to July and August, entering a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. Due to some funds' hedging needs at high levels after a long - term uptrend, there was a divergence in long - and short - term forces, leading to significant fluctuations in the stock index. However, in the medium - to long - term, China's capital market is just at the beginning of the strategic allocation period. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are mainly composed of technology growth stocks, are more aggressive with larger fluctuations and potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are dominated by dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (for different delivery months) decreased compared to the previous two days, with declines ranging from - 0.87% to - 1.16%. Trading volumes were 35095.00, 3254.00, 71448.00, and 11288.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 2835.00, 367.00, - 3631.00, and - 350.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices also declined, with decreases from - 0.43% to - 0.48%. Trading volumes were 15109.00, 966.00, 29241.00, and 2910.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were 819.00, 301.00, 341.00, and - 420.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The prices dropped by - 1.44% to - 1.48%. Trading volumes were 35918.00, 3743.00, 82089.00, and 14285.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 1087.00, 841.00, 3028.00, and 583.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The prices decreased by - 1.33% to - 1.47%. Trading volumes were 56703.00, 5684.00, 155277.00, and 25326.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were 623.00, 1021.00, 8777.00, and 1116.00 [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different changes compared to the previous values [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all declined, with decreases of - 0.95%, - 0.40%, - 1.37%, and - 1.45% respectively. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed [1]. - **Industry Performance**: Different industries had different trends. Energy, main consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, etc. showed certain percentage changes in prices [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The futures - spot basis of IF contracts (for different delivery months) compared to the CSI 300 index had different values on the previous day and the previous two days [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all declined, with decreases of - 0.65%, - 1.76%, - 1.85%, and - 2.60% respectively [1]. - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index declined by - 1.35%, while the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index increased by 0.27%, 0.59%, and 0.87% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will implement practical measures to stimulate private investment. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the labor - age population still has scale advantages and demographic dividends. During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, small - passenger cars can pass toll - free on national highways, and the expected cross - regional passenger flow is 23.6 billion person - times, a 3.2% increase from last year. The 2025 Conference on Accelerating the Construction of a Transportation Power emphasized multiple transportation construction tasks. South Korea will implement a visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29 to next June 30, and the number of Chinese tourists to South Korea is expected to exceed 5 million this year [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Eight departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metals industry, aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in added value and 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026. From January to August, the national transportation fixed - asset investment was 2.26 trillion yuan. The State Administration for Market Regulation issued regulations on food safety responsibilities of catering service chain enterprises. As of September 27, more than 470 policies to stabilize the real - estate market were introduced in about 200 cities (counties) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the dual demand for funds during the quarter - end and holidays, the central bank has intensified liquidity injection. The bond market has shown mixed trends with some yields rising and falling. The Fed's entry into the interest - rate cut cycle expands the policy space for the domestic central bank, but policy adjustments await central unified deployment. With the equity market strengthening, bond futures prices fluctuate at low levels. It is recommended to maintain a short - term neutral stance on long - term bonds and stay on the sidelines for short - term bonds, while controlling risks before the holiday [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2512 contract rose 0.07%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts showed different changes, such as the open interest of T2512 decreasing [2] - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China showed mixed trends. The 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 0.78bp to 1.88%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 42.06bp [2] - **Overseas Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term overseas treasury bonds also showed mixed trends. The 10Y US, German, and Japanese treasury bond yields rose by 2bp, 1bp, and 1bp respectively [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Liquidity**: The central bank carried out 1817 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 28, achieving a net injection. In the previous two days, it also made significant net injections through reverse repurchase and MLF operations [3] - **Private Investment**: The National Development and Reform Commission will implement practical measures to stimulate private investment [3] - **Population Statistics**: In 2024, the working - age population aged 16 - 59 was 857.98 million, accounting for 60.9% of the total population [3] - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank's monetary policy committee proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation, maintain capital market stability, and support the real estate market [3] - **Real Estate Policy**: Since 2025, about 200 cities (counties) have introduced over 470 policies, and the fourth - quarter policies are expected to continue to stabilize the real estate market [3] - **Industrial Profits**: From January to August, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profits increased by 20.4% year - on - year [3] - **US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index in August was in line with expectations, and consumer spending was strong, increasing the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut [3] Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: On September 28, most money market rates in China showed mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [3] - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields showed mixed trends, with some maturities rising and some falling [3] Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The central bank increased open - market operations last week, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size improved significantly in August. The Fed restarted interest - rate cuts, and US inflation remained stubborn [3] - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and stay on the sidelines for short - term bonds, while controlling risks before the holiday [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The polyolefin market continued to rebound overnight. In the medium - term, the market focuses on actual demand fulfillment and pre - holiday terminal stocking. Attention should also be paid to potential policy changes in the overall supply side in the fourth quarter in China. Due to the cost - driven nature, polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [2][3]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7159, 7197, and 7225 respectively, with price drops of - 10, - 12, and - 6, and declines of - 0.14%, - 0.17%, and - 0.08% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 195523, 9491, and 39, and open interests were 554591, 46752, and 172, with changes of - 7269, 245, and 3 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 38, - 28, and 66 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6893, 6936, and 6908 respectively, with price drops of - 5, - 5, and - 6, and declines of - 0.07%, - 0.07%, and - 0.09% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 229349, 14353, and 521, and open interests were 609770, 78694, and 2230, with changes of - 18267, 1335, and 351 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, 28, and 15 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2358 yuan/ton, 6475 yuan/ton, 586 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6730 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of methanol futures and PP recycled materials remained unchanged, while Shandong propylene decreased by 10 yuan/ton, South China propane decreased by 3 dollars/ton, North China powder decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and plastic film remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Consumption Information - On Friday (September 26), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.72 per barrel, up $0.74 or 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.66 - $66.42. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.13 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.11 - $70.76 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Crude oil, methanol, gold, silver, copper, iron ore, corn, lithium carbonate [6] - **Bearish Outlook**: Zinc, cotton, apple, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM) [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The scale of China's public - offering funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with bond funds slightly decreasing due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The US GDP growth rate in Q2 was revised up, and the PCE price index indicated persistent inflation. The market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. - For the stock index, September was more volatile, in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - The SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia will ban diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - The glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash was being digested. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day 3.1.1 International News - The US GDP in Q2 was revised up to an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [7]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce included three US entities in the export control list and three Taiwan - related US entities in the unreliable entity list [8]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed measures to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and relevant departments are studying regulatory measures [9]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, ICE No. 11 sugar, CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, CBOT corn, and CBOT soybean oil all rose, while LME copper and CBOT soybean meal fell [11]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index**: After the decline of US indices, the previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The financing balance increased. In the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has started [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after hitting the bottom. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity. The domestic economic situation was still in adjustment. With the Fed's rate cut, the central bank's policy space has increased, but policy adjustment needs central government deployment. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and neutral on short - term bonds [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia restricted fuel exports, and the global decline rate of oil and gas field production accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the coastal inventory decreased. It is short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell slightly. Supply may increase, the bonded area inventory decreased, and tire production increased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Prices follow the cost, and future demand and supply policies should be monitored. It may fluctuate within a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend paused. The Fed's rate - cut stance was cautious, but the rate - cut prospect was clear. The long - term driver for gold was still there, but there was short - term adjustment [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose slightly at night. The smelting output may increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. It may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased. Inventory was being digested rapidly. It may fluctuate in the short - term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi should be monitored [23]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products improved, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills resumed production, and iron ore demand was supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remained stable, and supply pressure increased. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market is expected to be bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal fell at night, and rapeseed meal was strong. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period ended early. Domestic soybean meal may fluctuate at a low level [28]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils were strong at night. The impact of floods in Malaysia on palm oil production was limited. After digesting the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, oil prices rebounded [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but pressured by imports. Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. International supply pressure still exists, and domestic new - cotton purchase is in focus. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC rebounded. Shipping companies signaled post - holiday price support, but success depends on cargo volume and capacity control. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded narrowly. The prices of polyolefins generally fluctuate passively following the cost - end. In the medium - term, the market focuses on actual demand fulfillment and pre - holiday terminal stocking, and also needs to pay attention to potential policy changes in the overall supply side in the fourth quarter in China. Polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7169, 7209, and 7231 respectively, with price increases of 27, 27, and 13, and price increase rates of 0.38%, 0.38%, and 0.18%. The trading volumes were 167193, 10346, and 48, and the open interests were 561860, 46507, and 169, with open interest changes of - 9915, 1516, and 4 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6898, 6941, and 6914 respectively, with price increases of 21, 21, and 4, and price increase rates of 0.31%, 0.30%, and 0.06%. The trading volumes were 166035, 9614, and 198, and the open interests were 628037, 77359, and 1879, with open interest changes of - 8467, 890, and 137 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 40, - 22, and 62, compared with previous values of - 40, - 36, and 76. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, 27, and 16, compared with previous values of - 43, 10, and 33 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2358 yuan/ton, 6485 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6740 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Thursday (September 25, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 64.98 dollars per barrel, down 0.01 dollars or 0.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 64.06 - 65.34 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.42 dollars per barrel, up 0.11 dollars or 0.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 68.42 - 69.68 dollars [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate weakly in a wide range [2] Group 2: Report Core Views - Copper prices may be supported in the long - term as the Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit. Zinc prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term as the supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.4% lower. The supply of concentrates has been tight since the beginning of the year, but smelting output has continued to grow at a high rate. The power industry and automobile production and sales are growing positively, while the growth rate of home appliance output is slowing down, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand deficit and support copper prices in the long run. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed up 0.02%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment and automobile production and sales are growing positively, while the growth rate of home appliance output is slowing down, and the real estate market is weak. The short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly in a range. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day closing price is 82,660 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 40 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 10,276 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 31.55 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 144,775 tons, and daily change is - 200 tons [2] - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day closing price is 20,760 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 10 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 2,664 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 2.10 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 517,150 tons, and daily change is 3,300 tons [2] - Zinc: Domestic previous - day closing price is 22,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 105 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 2,923 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 53.93 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 44,400 tons, and daily change is - 1,375 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day closing price is 122,680 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,110 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 15,240 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 174.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 230,586 tons, and daily change is 132 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day closing price is 17,060 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 2,009 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 36.80 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 219,725 tons, and daily change is - 250 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day closing price is 273,710 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,040 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 34,390 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 50.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,695 tons, and daily change is 120 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On September 25, the central bank carried out 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan; it also conducted 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, achieving a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan, which effectively alleviated the liquidity pressure. Amid the stock - bond seesaw effect, the scale of bond funds decreased slightly. The US Q2 GDP final value was significantly revised up, and the core PCE price index was also adjusted upward. The monetary market interest rates mostly rose on September 25, and US Treasury yields mostly increased. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the domestic central bank has more policy space, but the central bank stated that the next policy adjustment needs to wait for the unified deployment of the central government. Considering the continued strength of the equity market, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view on long - term bonds and stay on the sidelines for short - term bonds [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury futures prices showed mixed performance. The T2512 contract fell 0.04%, and its trading volume increased. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. The short - term market interest rates also showed mixed movements, with the SHIBOR 7 - day rate down 0.6bp, the DR007 rate up 9.09bp, and the GC007 rate up 0.3bp [2] Spot Market - On the previous trading day, the yields of key - maturity Chinese Treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 0.94bp to 1.89%, and the spread between long - and short - term (10 - 2) Treasury bond yields was 41.54bp [2] Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 2bp, the 10 - year German Treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10 - year Japanese Treasury bond yield rose 0.4bp [2] Macro News - On September 25, the central bank carried out 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan; it also conducted 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, achieving a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan, which effectively alleviated the liquidity pressure. China submitted a position paper on the special and differential treatment issue to the WTO, and does not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future WTO negotiations. The Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation into relevant Mexican measures. As of the end of August, the scale of China's public funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 36.25 trillion yuan, with a sharp monthly increase of 1.18 trillion yuan. The US Q2 GDP final value was significantly revised up to an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was adjusted from 2.5% to 2.6% [3] Industry Information - On September 25, most money market interest rates rose. The weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank lending for various terms reached new highs in different periods. Most US Treasury yields increased, with the 2 - year yield rising 4.50bp, the 3 - year rising 5.08bp, the 5 - year rising 3.91bp, the 10 - year rising 1.93bp, and the 30 - year falling 0.40bp [3] Comment and Strategy - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped to 1.805%. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity through MLF operations. The short - end Shibor showed mixed performance, and the cross - festival funding situation tightened. Consumption and production growth rates declined in August, and the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase. The central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy and implements a moderately loose monetary policy. The Fed restarted interest - rate cuts after a 9 - month pause. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the domestic central bank has more policy space, but it stated that the next policy adjustment needs to wait for the unified deployment of the central government. Given the continued strength of the equity market, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view on long - term bonds and stay on the sidelines for short - term bonds [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Night - time copper prices rose 0.06%. Although concentrate supply is tight and smelting profits are under pressure, smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices rose 0.41%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, and smelting profits have turned positive. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices rose 0.06%. Concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output has high growth. The power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic installations increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. The price may have short - term range - bound fluctuations [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose 0.41%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. The price may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 20,685 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,646 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 0.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 513,900 tons with no daily change [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 120,730 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 990 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,340 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 173.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 228,900 tons with an increase of 456 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 17,040 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 1,999 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 42.13 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 221,675 tons with an increase of 1,375 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 269,880 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,000 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 34,270 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 98.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,580 tons with an increase of 75 tons [2]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - On September 24, treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2512 contract down 0.24% and a decrease in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally rose, and key - term treasury bond yields showed mixed trends. The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.3bp. Overseas, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 4bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield fell 1.4bp. The central bank's monetary policy showed a moderately loose orientation, with a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan in September. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the central bank's policy space has increased, but the next policy adjustment needs central unified deployment. It is recommended to remain bearish on the long - end and stay on the sidelines for the short - end [2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Treasury Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On September 24, prices of various treasury bond futures contracts generally fell, such as the TS2512 contract down 0.05%, the TF2512 contract down 0.14%, and the T2512 contract down 0.24%. Open interest of most contracts decreased, except for some with an increase. Trading volume varied among contracts [2] - **IRR and Arbitrage**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - Rates of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR7 days, DR001, DR007, GC001, GC007, FR001, and FR007 generally rose on September 24. For example, SHIBOR7 days rose 12.8bp, DR007 rose 18.48bp, and GC007 rose 14.2bp [2] Spot Market - Chinese Treasury Bonds - **Yield Changes**: Yields of key - term treasury bonds showed mixed trends on September 24. The 10Y treasury bond yield rose 1.98bp to 1.9%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.3bp [2] Overseas Market - Treasury Bonds - **Yield Changes**: On September 24, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 4bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield fell 1.4bp [2] Macro News - **Monetary Policy**: On September 24, the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan. It also announced a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on September 25, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan in September, continuing the moderately loose monetary policy [3] - **Trade Policy**: China stated at the WTO that it would not seek new special and differential treatment, while emphasizing its status as the largest developing country. The US and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, with certain EU products on the tariff - exemption list [3] - **Financial Policy**: Commercial banks can use certain bonds as collateral for treasury cash time deposits, with specific collateral requirements [3] - **US Fiscal Policy**: The US Treasury Secretary criticized the Fed Chairman and urged a 100 - 150 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the end of the year. The Treasury is considering a 20 - billion - dollar currency swap with Argentina [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On September 24, most money - market interest rates rose, and US treasury bond yields collectively increased [3] Comment and Strategy - The market situation showed that treasury bond futures prices generally declined, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal, and short - end Shibor rates rose. Although the MLF continued to inject medium - term liquidity, considering factors such as economic data and the Fed's policy, it is recommended to remain bearish on the long - end and stay on the sidelines for the short - end [3]

重点品种：铜、黄金、原油 铜：夜盘铜价收涨 3.31%，印尼 Grasberg 矿难导致供应预期缩减。年初以来精 矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶炼产量延续高增长。国家统 计局数据显示，电力行业延续正增长，光伏抢装同比陡增，未来增速可能放缓； 汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率导致全球 铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 黄金：金银涨势暂缓，出现一定调整。鲍威尔最近一次讲话中表示，就业下行风 险证明降息是合理的，但通胀仍然有些高企，政策取决于数据，延续了 9 月美联 储会议时的谨慎姿态。美联储金融监理副主席鲍曼周二表示，美联储在支持就业 市场方面可能行动过于缓慢，如果需求状况恶化、企业开始财源，届时可能需要 加快降息的速度。上周，9 月美联储风险管理式降息 25 个基点，符合市场预期。 仅有刚被任命的美联储理事米兰支持降息 50 个基点。在特朗普持续施压的背景 下，美联储的降息姿态仍然较为谨慎，不过降息前景较为明确。市场预期今年剩 余两次会议均将降息。本周接连有几位联储官员讲话释放谨慎态度，但市场情绪 整体并未受其打压。市场预期关税对 ...