1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: SC night - session dropped 0.52%. Geopolitical risk premium in the oil market decreased as Trump shifted to a wait - and - see attitude on Iran. Market sentiment turned more pessimistic after Trump's positive phone call with Venezuelan acting president. More crude oil is expected to be exported from Venezuela in the coming weeks. OPEC report forecasts global demand for JMMC member countries' crude oil to remain at 43 million barrels per day in 2026, a 600,000 - barrel - per - day increase from 2025, and rise to 43.6 million barrels per day in 2027 [3]. - Methanol: Methanol night - session declined 1.39%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants dropped 4.67 percentage points to 80.75%. The overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 77.91% as of January 15, down 0.18 percentage points from last week and 1.69 percentage points from the same period last year. Coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly. Short - term outlook is bullish, while the situation in Iran needs attention [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month all rose, with increases of 0.24%, 0.20%, 0.74%, 0.79%, 0.99%, and 0.98% respectively. The previous day's closing prices were 453.7, 454.8, 60.14, 59.83, 63.37, and 62.96 respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes were 66,825, 19,066, 240,924, 141,512, 218,464, and 135,720 respectively. Open interests were 29,337, 18,468, 326,326, 215,726, 622,875, and 460,724 respectively. Open interest changes were - 482, 1055, - 16162, 7344, - 6472, and 9121 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: Current spreads such as SC near - month - SC next - month were - 1.1, compared to the previous value of - 1.3 [2]. Spot Market - **International Market**: International crude oil spot and refined oil prices rose. For example, OPEC basket crude oil price increased from 62.77 to 62.94 [2]. - **Domestic Market**: Some domestic prices changed. For instance, the price of Daqing crude oil decreased from 60.38 to 59.54 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [6] - Carbonate lithium: Cautiously bullish [6] - Other varieties: The report does not provide clear investment ratings for other varieties Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic growth forecast for 2026 has been raised, and artificial intelligence - driven IT investment is an important support for the global economy [8] - Precious metals continue to rebound. The long - term upward trend of gold is expected to continue, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise steadily [5] - The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors, and the short - term market sentiment is pessimistic, but the demand for crude oil from the Declaration members is expected to increase [2] - The price of carbonate lithium fluctuates greatly, and it is generally easy to rise and difficult to fall under the condition that the demand logic is not falsified [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main News Concerns International News - The IMF has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, and also raised the economic growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [8] Domestic News - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. The manufacturing scale remained the world's first, but the population decreased [9] Industry News - Five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, with phased goals for different industries by 2027 and 2030 [10] 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The European STOXX50 index fell by 1.28%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell by 0.47%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.33%. London gold rose by 1.58%, and London copper rose by 4.73% [11] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Treasury bonds fell slightly. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net investment of 722 billion yuan. Against the background of a weakening US economy and China's moderately loose monetary policy, the price of treasury bond futures has stabilized [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: SC night trading fell by 0.52%. Geopolitical risks in the oil market have decreased, and more crude oil is expected to be exported from Venezuela in the future. The demand for crude oil from the Declaration members is expected to increase [2][15] - Methanol: Methanol night trading fell by 1.39%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased. The overall inventory of coastal methanol decreased slightly. It is bullish in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [16] - Natural rubber: Domestic rubber - producing areas have stopped tapping, and the supply elasticity has weakened in the short - term. The price of raw rubber is relatively firm, and the demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. The short - term rubber price is expected to be oscillating and bullish [17] - Polyolefin: Polyolefin futures closed down. The market focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the international crude oil price supports the cost. After a continuous rebound, polyolefin may oscillate in the short - term [18][19] - Glass and soda ash: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures were in consolidation. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The supply - demand relationship of glass is gradually being repaired, and soda ash still has inventory digestion pressure [20] Metals - Precious metals: Precious metals continue to rebound. The long - term upward trend of gold is expected to continue, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise steadily due to macro - environment and supply - demand gaps [5][21] - Copper: The copper price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may have a phased correction [22] - Zinc: The zinc price fell slightly at night. The supply of zinc concentrates is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow. After the release of optimistic sentiment in non - ferrous metals, the zinc price may have a phased correction [23] - Aluminum: The price of Shanghai aluminum rose at night. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but low inventory and supply constraints provide support in the long - term [24][25] - Carbonate lithium: The main contract of carbonate lithium fluctuates greatly. The production has increased slightly, and the social inventory has decreased. The price is generally easy to rise and difficult to fall under the demand logic [3][26] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke: The main contracts of coking coal and coke were weak at night. The short - term disk trend is expected to be bullish, and attention should be paid to the supply of coking coal, iron water output, and downstream restocking rhythm [27] - Steel: The steel price is oscillating and bullish. The supply and demand of the steel market are both weak, and the inventory decline has narrowed. The overall commodity atmosphere has turned warmer, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [28] - Iron ore: The iron ore price oscillates and falls back. The short - term ore price is expected to continue to oscillate slightly bullishly, and steel mills will continue to purchase on demand [29] Agricultural Products - Protein meal: The night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans is strengthening, and the supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase. The easing of China - Canada trade relations will put pressure on the price of rapeseed meal [30] - Edible oils: Soybean and palm oil were bullish and oscillating at night, while rapeseed oil was weak. The export of Malaysian palm oil is strong, and the US biodiesel policy is expected to be bullish. The supply of domestic rapeseed is expected to increase, which restricts the short - term price of soybean and palm oil [31] - Sugar: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar was oscillating and weak. The supply of sugar is seasonally increasing, and the import policy and high production cost support the disk. It is expected to operate in a low - level range in the short - term [32] - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton continued to reduce positions and weaken. The demand from textile enterprises provides support. After the decline, it is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the lower support [33] Shipping Index - Container shipping to Europe: EC fell by 1.77%. The SCFIS European line was basically flat. Before the Spring Festival, the freight rate is expected to enter a downward channel, but the export rush of photovoltaic products may bring some support [34][35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The polyolefin futures closed with a negative line. For linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable while PetroChina lowered some prices by 100. For拉丝PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina kept prices stable. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the macro - impact on commodities has increased. The rebound of international crude oil prices continues to support chemicals at the cost end. However, the short - term oscillation of crude oil after the rebound has an impact on chemicals. Polyolefins may oscillate in the short term after a continuous rebound [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For linear LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6720, 6667, and 6691 respectively, with price changes of 200, - 28, and - 32 and percentage changes of 3.07%, - 0.42%, and - 0.48% respectively. For拉丝PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6496, 6482, and 6515 respectively, with price changes of 261, - 14, and - 19 and percentage changes of 4.19%, - 0.22%, and - 0.29% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: For linear LL, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 52, 411938, and 23413 respectively, and the open interests were 42, 485464, and 48779 respectively, with open interest changes of 42, 13977, and 2347 respectively. For拉丝PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 539, 302551, and 21307 respectively, and the open interests were 507, 470494, and 89339 respectively, with open interest changes of 507, - 15239, and - 678 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 53, - 24, and - 29 respectively, compared to previous values of - 175, - 28, and 203. For拉丝PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 14, - 33, and 19 respectively, compared to previous values of - 261, - 38, and 299 [2]. Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2215 yuan/ton, 6145 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6370 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2235 yuan/ton, 6145 yuan/ton, 592 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6430 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream Products**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7150 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were the same. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, and the previous price ranges were also the same [2]. News - On Monday (January 19), due to a US public holiday, the 2026 February WTI had no settlement price, and the electronic trading range was $58.70 - $59.65 per barrel. The 2026 March Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange settled at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.26 - $64.39 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans is strengthening, and domestic soybean meal prices are under pressure due to high inventory and expected high - yield in South America. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may increase rapeseed imports and put short - term pressure on rapeseed meal prices [3]. - The oil market: Night trading of soybean and palm oil showed a strong and volatile trend, while rapeseed oil was weak. Strong exports and reduced production in Malaysia, along with lower tariffs, support palm oil prices. Favorable demand for US soybean oil due to biofuel policy expectations also provides support. However, the expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply due to the China - Canada economic and trade agreement weakens rapeseed oil prices and restricts short - term soybean and palm oil prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Domestic Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7996, 8648, and 8902 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 26, and - 161, and percentage changes of - 0.25%, - 0.30%, and - 3.15%. The closing prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2727, 2327, and 8844 respectively, with changes of 0, - 133, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.00%, - 5.41%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values, such as the Y9 - 1 spread changing from - 390 to - 364, and the M9 - 1 spread changing from - 179 to - 238 [1]. International Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4027 (Ringgit/ton), 1056.25 (cents/bushel), 52.51 (cents/pound), and 289.90 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 77.0, 3.8, - 0.4, and 0.7, and percentage changes of 1.95%, 0.36%, - 0.76%, and 0.24% [1]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8530 and 8580 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.12% and 0.00%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8700, with no change. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9780 and 9830 respectively, with percentage changes of - 1.71% and - 1.70% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads of various varieties have also changed compared to the previous values, such as the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 534, and the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining at - 150 [1]. Import and Profit - The current import profits of Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, US West soybeans, Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and Canadian rapeseed are - 342, - 264, - 71, - 217, 270, and 387 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 27,485, 1,148, 1,942, 32,440, 84, and 0 respectively, with some varieties showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - **Palm Oil**: It is expected that the average price of palm oil in 2026 will be 4,125 Ringgit per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.55%. Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 1,975 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.61%, while Indonesia's production is expected to reach a record 5,120 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.39% [3]. - **Soybeans**: As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and slightly higher than 1.7% in the same period last year. In the third week of January 2026, Brazil shipped a total of 130.74 tons of soybeans, with an average daily shipment of 11.89 tons, a 144.56% increase compared to January last year [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market in 2026 is the result of the combined effects of the technology cycle resonance, policy dividend release, economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new phase driven by earnings. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reforms will continue, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds' allocation of Chinese assets under the strategic guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - For IF contracts: The closing prices of IF contracts on the previous two days were 4737.00 (current month), 4725.80 (next month), 4723.20 (next quarter), and 4680.00 (alternate quarter). The previous day's closing prices were 4732.80, 4728.60, 4688.80, and 4633.80 respectively. The price changes were - 3.99, 5.00, - 30.40, and - 44.80. The trading volumes were 23746.00, 73045.00, 18164.00, and 5287.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were 38577.00, 139389.00, - 119648.00, and - 62607.00 [1] - Similar data were provided for IH, IC, and IM contracts, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes [1] - The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were also presented, showing the differences between the next - month and current - month contracts [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - For the CSI 300 Index: The previous value of the index was 4734.46, with a trading volume of 267.61 billion lots and a total trading value of 6551.49 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 4731.87, with a trading volume of 325.28 billion lots and a total trading value of 7856.24 billion yuan. The increase rate was 0.05% [1] - Similar data were provided for the SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including index points, trading volumes, total trading values, and increase rates [1] - The performance of different industries in the CSI 300 industry index was also shown, with some industries rising and others falling. For example, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption industries had positive growth rates, while the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries had negative growth rates [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The basis between futures and spot prices was calculated for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts against their corresponding spot indices (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000), showing the differences between futures and spot prices on the previous day and two days ago [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had different increase or decrease rates. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.30%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.70% [1] - Overseas indexes such as the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index also had different performance, with the Hang Seng Index decreasing by 1.05%, the Nikkei 225 decreasing by 0.65%, the S&P Index decreasing by 0.06%, and the DAX Index decreasing by 1.34% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China's economic "report card" for 2025 was released. The GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the service industry's added value increased by 5.4%, accounting for 57.7% of GDP. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real - estate development investment decreasing by 17.2% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance will hold important press conferences today [2] - The tickets for the first day of the Spring Festival travel season went on sale on January 19, 2026. The Spring Festival travel season by railway will last from February 2 to March 13, with an expected 5.39 billion passenger trips, a 5% increase year - on - year. The civil aviation passenger volume during the Spring Festival travel season is expected to reach a record high of 95 million [2] - The US president announced tariff hikes on 8 countries, and the Chinese foreign ministry responded [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, with the goal of cultivating a number of zero - carbon factories in industries such as automotive, lithium - battery, photovoltaic, and electronic appliances by 2027 and gradually expanding to traditional high - energy - consuming industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals by 2030 [2] - The housing price data of 70 large and medium - sized cities in December last year showed that the housing prices in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month, with the year - on - year decline widening. In the second - hand housing market, all 70 cities' housing prices decreased month - on - month, with the decline in first - tier cities narrowing. In the new - housing market, the decline in first - tier cities also narrowed, and Shanghai was the only first - tier city where new - housing prices increased both month - on - month (0.2%) and year - on - year (4.8%) [2] - China successfully launched the 19th group of low - orbit satellites for the satellite internet. China Star Network has launched over 150 satellites, with a short - term goal of having 400 satellites in orbit by 2027 [2] - Domestic refined oil prices will be adjusted at 24:00 on January 20, with an expected increase of about 90 yuan per ton on January 21, which may be the first increase this year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of treasury bond futures fluctuated, with the T2603 contract down 0.02% and an increase in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term treasury bond yields at home and abroad also showed mixed trends. The price of treasury bond futures stabilized due to factors such as the central bank's implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the cooling of the equity market [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: The closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 102.400, 102.428, 105.785, 105.815, 108.040, 107.980, 110.92, and 111.03 respectively. The price changes were 0.004, - 0.002, - 0.020, - 0.025, - 0.025, - 0.030, - 0.240, and - 0.260 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.02%, - 0.02%, - 0.02%, - 0.03%, - 0.22%, and - 0.23%. The open interest was 69553, 7201, 141773, 21429, 234657, 20086, 141983, and 33744 respectively, with changes of - 600, 241, 1075, 111, - 2327, 768, 2030, and 991 respectively. The trading volumes were 23651, 730, 43774, 3593, 52248, 4918, 78148, and 9319 respectively [2]. - **IRR and Arbitrage**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR7 days, DR001, DR007, GC001, GC007, FR001, and FR007 were 1.3180, 1.4670, 1.3752, 1.5288, 1.5790, 1.5810, 1.39, and 1.54 respectively. The changes were - 0.7bp, - 0.3bp, 0.18bp, 1.51bp, 24.8bp, 4.4bp, - 1bp, and 1bp respectively [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y treasury bonds were 1.29%, 1.29%, 1.40%, 1.61%, 1.72%, 1.84%, 2.34%, and 2.38% respectively. The changes were - 0.55bp, 3.05bp, - 0.01bp, 0.29bp, 0.34bp, - 0.23bp, 0bp, and 7.2bp respectively. The 10 - 2Y, 10 - 5Y, 5 - 2Y, and 30 - 10Y yield spreads were 43.53bp, 31.72bp, 11.81bp, and 53.24bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of US 2Y, US 5Y, US 10Y, US 30Y, German 2Y, German 10Y, Japanese 2Y, and Japanese 10Y treasury bonds were 3.59%, 3.82%, 4.24%, 4.83%, 2.080%, 2.900%, 1.230%, and 2.266% respectively. The changes were 3.0bp, 5.0bp, 7.0bp, 4.0bp, - 2.0bp, 1.0bp, 2.5bp, and 8.4bp respectively [2]. 3.4 Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 19, the central bank conducted 1583 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 861 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 722 billion yuan [3]. - **Economic Data**: In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan. The added value of industries above the designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year, the added value of the service industry increased by 5.4% and accounted for 57.7% of GDP, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real - estate development investment decreasing by 17.2% [3]. - **Housing Price Data**: In December 2025, in the secondary housing market, the prices of 70 large and medium - sized cities all declined month - on - month, with the decline in first - tier cities narrowing. In the new housing market, the decline in first - tier cities also narrowed, and Shanghai was the only first - tier city with both month - on - month and year - on - year price increases [3]. - **Policy Direction**: The central bank stated that in 2026, it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment, and there was still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [3]. - **International Economic Outlook**: The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the economic growth forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price in the night session first declined and then rose, closing up 0.05%. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has decreased month - on - month, it generally continues to grow at a high rate. The supply disruption of mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a shortage, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price in the night session closed up 0.14%. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metal Price Movements - Copper price in the night session closed up 0.05%, zinc price closed up 0.14% [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - For copper, concentrate supply is tight, smelting output has a high - growth trend, and power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Mine supply disruptions lead to a supply - demand gap expectation [2] - For zinc, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output grows, galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth slows, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2] Market Data - **Domestic Futures and Basis**: Copper's domestic previous - day futures closing price is 102,200 yuan/ton, basis is - 120 yuan/ton; aluminum's is 24,155 yuan/ton and - 140 yuan/ton; zinc's is 25,050 yuan/ton and - 45 yuan/ton; nickel's is 145,400 yuan/ton and - 1,860 yuan/ton; lead's is 17,450 yuan/ton and - 140 yuan/ton; tin's is 423,780 yuan/ton and - 14,290 yuan/ton [2] - **LME Data**: Copper's previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 13,149 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is 37.60 dollars/ton, and LME inventory is 141,625 tons with a daily change of 75 tons; aluminum's is 3,172 dollars/ton, 1.42 dollars/ton, 492,000 tons and - 2,000 tons; zinc's is 3,314 dollars/ton, - 27.62 dollars/ton, 106,725 tons and - 175 tons; nickel's is 18,590 dollars/ton, - 187.88 dollars/ton, 284,658 tons and 510 tons; lead's is 2,097 dollars/ton, - 43.58 dollars/ton, 215,200 tons and - 3,725 tons; tin's is 52,775 dollars/ton, - 114.50 dollars/ton, 5,930 tons and 0 tons [2]

报告日期：2026 年 1 月 16 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评："组合拳"支持经济高质量发展 央行打出"组合拳"支持经济高质量发展。其中包括：下调再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25 个百分点；合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款 额度 5000 亿元，总额度中单设 1 万亿元民营企业再贷款，重点支持中小民营企 业；科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度增加 4000 亿元并扩大支持范围；拓展碳减 排支持工具支持领域；将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至 30%。央行表示， 今年降准降息还有一定空间。美国白宫发布声明称，美国将从 1 月 15 日起对部 分进口半导体、半导体制造设备和衍生品加征 25%进口从价关税。英伟达 H200 芯 片和超威半导体 MI325X 均在此次加征关税范围内。用于数据中心、研发、维修 和公共部门等领域的半导体产品不在此次加征关税范围之内。国内商品期市夜盘 收盘多数下跌，能源品跌幅居前，燃油跌 2.82%；化工品多数下跌，非金属建材 全部下跌，黑色系多数下跌，焦煤跌 0.72%；油脂油料涨幅居前，菜油涨 2.57%； 农副产品多数上涨，玉米淀粉涨 0.55%。 重点品种：原 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The continuous improvement of the stock market in 2026 is the result of the combined effects of the technology cycle resonance, policy dividend release, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflow. The market has gradually shifted from valuation expansion to profit - driven. It is expected that supply - side reform will continue in 2026, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas capital allocation of Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts increased, with the increase in the current month contract being 15.00 points and a rise of 0.32%. The trading volume of each contract was 29122.00, 18351.00, 81140.00, and 17229.00 respectively, and the open interest decreased by 10720.00 in the current month contract and increased by 4194.00 in the next month contract [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with the current month contract falling by 7.40 points and a decline of 0.24%. The trading volume of each contract was 10975.00, 6924.00, 34976.00, and 6009.00 respectively, and the open interest decreased in the current month and next - season contracts [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts increased, with the current month contract rising by 11.40 points and a rise of 0.14%. The trading volume of each contract was 32673.00, 26360.00, 110213.00, and 26152.00 respectively, and the open interest changed differently in each contract [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts increased, with the current month contract rising by 24.80 points and a rise of 0.30%. The trading volume of each contract was 38012.00, 29827.00, 148081.00, and 31844.00 respectively, and the open interest changed in each contract [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with the current values being - 0.40, - 0.20, 2.60, and - 14.00 respectively, different from the previous values [1]. 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.20%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.21%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.05%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 0.20%. The trading volume and turnover of each index also changed [1]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Different industries in the CSI 300 industry index showed different trends, with the energy, raw materials, and telecommunications industries rising, and the main consumption, pharmaceutical, and real - estate finance industries falling [1]. 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The futures - spot basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed compared with the previous two days, with different values for each contract and different trends [1]. 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.41%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.71%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.28%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.42%, the S&P index increased by 0.26%, and the DAX index increased by 0.26% [1]. 5. Macroeconomic Information - The central bank took a series of measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering re - loan and re - discount rates, increasing various loan quotas, expanding the scope of support for carbon - emission reduction tools, and lowering the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans. The central bank also stated that there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year [2]. - The US will impose a 25% ad - valorem import tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from January 15 [2]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and the two sides witnessed the signing of multiple cooperation documents [2]. - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said that in 2026, the Ministry of Commerce will focus on "three focuses" to release consumption potential [2]. - Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir - Abdollahian, expressing opposition to the use or threat of force in international relations [2]. 6. Industry Information - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said that in 2026, China will actively expand independent opening - up, including expanding the opening of service sectors and promoting zero - tariff measures for African countries [2]. - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, State Grid's fixed - asset investment will reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the 14th Five - Year Plan period [2]. - In 2025, the number of idle land parcels to be acquired using special bonds exceeded 5500, with a total land value exceeding 750 billion yuan, and more than 300 billion yuan of special bonds have been issued [2]. - The 2nd Commercial Space Industry Development Conference and the 2026 Commercial Space Exhibition will be held in Shenzhen from March 17 - 18, focusing on hot topics in the commercial space industry [2]. 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index mainly fluctuated and corrected, with the electronics sector leading the rise and the comprehensive sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.94 trillion yuan. The margin ratio for margin trading was adjusted on January 14, 2026 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report on the protein meal market indicates that the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is increasing, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest The USDA has adjusted the US soybean production and export forecasts, leading to an increase in ending stocks, and the report's impact on the market is neutral to bearish Domestically, factors such as good state - reserve soybean auction results, high domestic soybean meal inventories, and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans will continue to put pressure on prices [3] - Regarding the oil market, the MPOB report data is in line with expectations, and the overall impact on the market is neutral The cancellation of Indonesia's plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% has raised concerns about palm oil demand, but positive news about US soybean oil demand has boosted oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - For domestic futures, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures have declined, with decreases of - 0.78%, - 1.94%, and - 3.15% respectively; soybean meal futures decreased by - 0.40%, while rapeseed meal futures increased by 5.01%, and peanut futures increased by 0.29% [2] - In terms of spreads and ratios, there have been changes in various spreads and ratios, such as the Y9 - 1 spread changing from - 390 to - 364, the P9 - 1 spread changing from - 26 to 62, etc [2] 3.2 International Futures Market - The price of BMD palm oil futures decreased by - 0.48%, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.96%, CBOT US soybean oil increased by 3.72%, and CBOT US soybean meal decreased by - 0.96% [2] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, with decreases of - 0.82%, - 2.26%, and - 1.23% respectively; the prices of soybean meal remained unchanged, rapeseed meal decreased by - 0.84%, and peanuts remained unchanged [2] - There have been changes in spot spreads, such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining unchanged at - 150, and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil changing from 1280 to 1210 [2] 3.4 Import Profit and Warehouse Receipts - Import profits have changed, with the import profit of Malaysian palm oil changing from - 251 to - 372, and the import profit of US Gulf soybeans changing from - 146 to - 175 [2] - Warehouse receipts have also changed, with the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts changing from 29,147 to 28,247, and the number of palm oil warehouse receipts changing from 1,248 to 1,448 [2] 3.5 Industry Information - According to NOPA data, the US soybean oil inventory in December 2025 was 1.642 billion pounds, and the soybean crushing volume was 224.991 million bushels [3] - As of January 10, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 98.2%, and the harvest rate was 0.6% [3] - The USDA has adjusted the US 2025/26 soybean production and export forecasts, increasing the ending stocks to 350 million bushels [3] - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and inventories increased by 7.58% month - on - month [3] - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year and will maintain the biodiesel plan at the B40 level [3]