Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The prices of polyolefins (LL&PP) closed down. With the decline in crude oil prices and mediocre spot performance, the futures prices continued to be weak. Although the downstream operating rate has rebounded, the production of standard PE and PP products from upstream has also increased. In the medium - term, the market focuses on the actual demand fulfillment. The future trend of polyolefins will be driven by the interplay of cost and supply - demand, and they may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the terminal stocking rhythm around the National Day holiday. After continuous declines, polyolefins may stop falling this week [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7130, 7187, and 7229 respectively, with declines of - 39, - 36, and - 21, and drop - rates of - 0.54%, - 0.50%, and - 0.29%. The trading volumes were 210963, 9954, and 64, and the open interests were 580839, 41372, and 145, with increases of 24526, 1271, and 53 respectively. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months were - 57, - 42, and 99, compared to previous values of - 54, - 27, and 81 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6873, 6929, and 6912 respectively, with declines of - 41, - 29, and - 16, and drop - rates of - 0.59%, - 0.42%, and - 0.23%. The trading volumes were 221626, 15142, and 251, and the open interests were 645243, 73930, and 1665, with increases of 35335, 239, and 76 respectively. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months were - 56, 17, and 39, compared to previous values of - 44, 30, and 14 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, and North China powder were 2351 yuan/ton, 6535 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, and 6700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2364 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 591 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, and 6750 yuan/ton. The price of mulch film remained at 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7700, 7050 - 7400, and 7300 - 7750 respectively. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 6900, 6700 - 6850, and 6650 - 6900 respectively [2]. News On Monday (September 22), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.64 per barrel, down $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.98 - $63.18. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.57 per barrel, down $0.11 or 0.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.94 - $67.31 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2512 contract falling 0.23% and its open interest decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term treasury bond yields at home and abroad also changed differently. The domestic bond market was affected by factors such as central bank operations, economic data, and the Fed's interest - rate cut. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the domestic central bank has more policy space, but short - term capital tightness and high - level oscillations in the equity market have led to repeated low - level prices of bond futures [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume Changes**: The prices of all treasury bond futures contracts declined, with TS2512 down 0.04%, TS2603 down 0.05%, TF2512 down 0.14%, TF2603 down 0.14%, T2512 down 0.23%, T2603 down 0.24%, TL2512 down 0.71%, and TL2603 down 0.72%. The open interest of T2512 decreased by 1014, while that of T2603 increased by 816 [2]. - **IRR and Arbitrage**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts were 0.074, 0.125, 0.345, and 0.320 respectively, showing slight increases compared to the previous values [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate decreased by 4bp, DR007 rate decreased by 4.53bp, and GC007 rate increased by 2.2bp [2]. - **Domestic Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of domestic key - term treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 2.54bp to 1.88%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 38.87bp [2]. - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds generally increased. The US 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 3bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 5bp, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 4bp [2]. 3.3 Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank increased open - market operations, with a net reverse - repurchase injection of 5623 billion yuan and a net injection of 3000 billion yuan through outright reverse - repurchase operations. This week, 18268 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases and 3000 billion yuan of MLF will mature [3]. - **Economic Data**: In August, the year - on - year growth rates of consumption and production declined, and the decline in real estate investment and sales continued to widen [3]. - **Policy Adjustments**: Shanghai optimized and adjusted the property tax policy. The Fed restarted interest - rate cuts after a 9 - month hiatus, and the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices decreased at night, and the EU proposed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including restrictions on Russian LNG and a reduction in the price cap of Russian crude oil. The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3]. - Methanol prices fluctuated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins plants increased, while the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventories rose to a historical high, and the short - term trend of methanol is mainly bearish [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month all decreased, with price drops ranging from - 0.49% to - 1.37%. The night - time decrease was 1.55% [2][3]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest showed different trends. For example, the SC next - month open interest decreased by 30,174, while the WTI near - month open interest increased by 4,990 [2]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The 01 - contract price increased by 0.64%, the 05 - contract price decreased by 0.17%, and the 09 - contract price decreased by 0.55% [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest also had different changes. The open interest of the 01 - contract decreased by 14,496, while that of the 05 - contract increased by 4,777 [2]. Spot Market Crude Oil - International and domestic crude oil spot and refined oil prices decreased [2]. Methanol - The spot price of methanol in the port remained unchanged, while prices in East China, North China, and South China changed with increases or decreases [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefins closed down with a negative candlestick. The spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. After the Fed's interest rate cut last week, the market declined due to concerns about future demand fulfillment. In the medium term, with the interaction of cost and supply - demand factors, polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range. In the short term, attention should be paid to the terminal stocking rhythm before and after the National Day holiday. After continuous declines, polyolefins may gradually stop falling this week [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7169, 7223, and 7250 respectively, with price drops of - 19, - 10, and - 30 and percentage drops of - 0.26%, - 0.14%, and - 0.41%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6914, 6958, and 6928 respectively, with price drops of - 12, - 5, and - 3 and percentage drops of - 0.17%, - 0.07%, and - 0.04% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 201711, 10840, and 74 respectively, and the open interests were 556313, 40101, and 92 respectively, with open - interest increases of 26840, 1877, and 25. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 230403, 18721, and 353 respectively, and the open interests were 609908, 73691, and 1589 respectively, with open - interest increases of 35189, 2630, and 14 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 54, - 27, and 81 respectively, compared to previous values of - 45, - 47, and 92. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 44, 30, and 14 respectively, compared to previous values of - 37, 32, and 5 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2348 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 591 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2364 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 593 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (September 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.68 per barrel, down $0.89 or 1.40% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.6 - $63.65. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.68 per barrel, down $0.76 or 1.13% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.44 - $67.57 [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Wall Street is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates faster and more significantly in the future. The futures market predicts that the Fed's benchmark short - term interest rate will drop below 3% by the end of next year, lower than the current level slightly above 4% and the Fed officials' forecast of 3.4% [3] - After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices declined but strengthened again on Friday night. The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell to 231,000, the largest drop in nearly four years. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in line with market expectations. Only newly - appointed Fed Governor Milan supported a 50 - basis - point rate cut. Despite Trump's pressure, the Fed's stance on rate cuts remains cautious [4] - The US retail sales in August were strong, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month. The US trade negotiations have shown multiple developments, but the overall trade environment has deteriorated. The market is observing the continuation of the impact of tariff inflation and has certain expectations for the strengthening of private investment in the fourth quarter [4] - The US fiscal deficit and debt continue to expand, and central banks represented by China are continuously increasing their gold holdings. The long - term driving force for gold is still clear. After a brief adjustment, the expectation of the Fed's continued rate cuts sustains bullish sentiment [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - For gold futures (沪金2510 and 沪金2512), the current prices are 834.90 and 838.26 respectively, with increases of 10.80 and 11.44, and increases of 1.31% and 1.38% respectively. The trading volumes are 192,704 and 221,255, and the open interests are 87,731 and 228,640 respectively [2] - For silver futures (沪银2510 and 沪银2512), the current prices are 10,173.00 and 10,204.00 respectively, with increases of 365.00 and 369.00, and increases of 3.72% and 3.75% respectively. The trading volumes are 301,538 and 646,031, and the open interests are 144,039 and 395,854 respectively [2] Spot Market - For Shanghai gold T+D, the previous closing price was 824.53, with a decrease of 5.72 and a decrease of 0.69%. For London gold, the previous closing price was 833.26 (in dollars per ounce), with a decrease of 2.62 and a decrease of 0.31% [2] - For Shanghai silver T+D, the previous closing price was 9,811.00, with a decrease of 65.00 and a decrease of 0.66%. For London silver, the previous closing price was 41.80 (in dollars per ounce), with an increase of 0.16 and an increase of 0.38% [2] Inventory - The current inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 56,430 kilograms, an increase of 2,304.00 kilograms compared to the previous value. The current inventory of silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 1,203,523 kilograms, a decrease of 17,905.00 kilograms compared to the previous value [2] - The current COMEX gold inventory is 39,280,534, an increase of 49,045.43 compared to the previous value. The current COMEX silver inventory is 524,086,477, a decrease of 1,240,641 compared to the previous value [2] Related Derivatives and Other Related Data - The current value of the US dollar index is 97.3696, an increase of 0.34% compared to the previous value. The current value of the S&P index is 6,631.96, an increase of 0.48% compared to the previous value [2] - The current US Treasury yield is 4.11, an increase of 1.23% compared to the previous value. The current price of Brent crude oil is 66.97, a decrease of 0.01% compared to the previous value. The current US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1087, an increase of 0.09% compared to the previous value [2] - The current position of the SPDR Gold ETF is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 tons compared to the previous value. The current position of the SLV Silver ETF is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 tons compared to the previous value [2] - The current net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 33,486, an increase of 481 compared to the previous value. The current net position of CFTC speculators in gold is 32,895, a decrease of 1,451 compared to the previous value [2] Macroeconomic News - Argentina's President Milei revealed that Argentina is negotiating to contain market selling and avoid a debt crisis and plans to meet with US President Trump in New York on Tuesday [3] - The short - term spending bills of both US political parties failed to pass the Senate, and the US government may shut down due to the deadlock between the two parties [3] - US tariff policies have severely hit Swiss exports. In August this year, Switzerland's exports to the US decreased by 22% month - on - month, and the gold export volume to the US dropped from over 30 tons to only 0.3 tons, a decline of over 99% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold has a clear long - term driver due to the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold - buying. The expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cuts keeps the bullish sentiment alive [2][20]. - Crude oil prices are affected by EU sanctions on Russia and US drilling well numbers. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [4][11][12]. - The "9·24" policy package has strengthened the "stability" and accelerated the "activity" of China's capital market [7]. - Manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in the whole process of data collection, storage, calculation, management, and application [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News on the Day - **International News**: South Korea and the US have differences in the commercial feasibility guarantee of a $350 billion investment. South Korea plans to increase defense spending and hopes to resolve the tariff issue with the US [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" policy package, the "stability" of China's capital market has been consolidated, and the "activity" has been accelerated. As of September 18, the margin trading balance was 24,024.65 billion yuan. The A - share market's daily trading volume has exceeded 3 trillion yuan several times this year, and the total market value has reached over 100 trillion yuan. In August, the number of new A - share accounts increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The director of the National Data Bureau emphasized that manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in data - related processes to promote the implementation of "AI +" in the industry [8]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.17%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.27%, London gold spot increased by 1.22%, London silver increased by 3.24%, ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 0.31%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.93%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 1.23%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.32%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 1.26%, CBOT wheat decreased by 0.52%, and CBOT corn decreased by 0.06% [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, while the previous trading day's stock index mainly corrected. The coal and non - ferrous sectors led the rise, and the automobile and pharmaceutical sectors led the decline. The market trading volume was 3.17 trillion yuan. The financing balance decreased on September 18. The market is in a high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose to 1.80%. The central bank increased open - market operations, but the money market tightened. The Fed's interest rate cut increased the policy space for the domestic central bank, but the short - term money market and the high - level shock of the equity market led to the repeated low - level performance of bond futures [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices dropped 1.55% at night. The EU proposed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including energy and finance. The US drilling well number increased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fluctuated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly. The coastal methanol inventory increased, and the short - term trend is bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined last week. The supply may increase, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the tire production increased. The price may be supported by inventory reduction and rainfall, and the short - term decline is expected to be limited, with a possible oscillatory trend [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins closed down. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand. The inventory is improving, and the decline in crude oil prices has stopped, which supports the chemical products. However, the market is worried about future demand, and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly. The market supply - demand relationship is slowly recovering, and attention is focused on the supply - side reduction. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased this week. Soda ash futures also rebounded slightly, and its production enterprise inventory decreased [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices first declined and then strengthened on Friday night. The US initial jobless claims decreased, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The long - term driver of gold is clear, and the expectation of further rate cuts maintains the bullish sentiment [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.29% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. The power industry is growing, while the real estate is weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices dropped 0.61% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets increased. The short - term supply - demand may turn to surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The demand for related materials also changed. Due to the expected mining - right change, the bullish logic is weakened, but the inventory reduction and pre - holiday procurement may support the price, and it may oscillate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level on Friday night. The steel output was basically flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term inventory pressure and profit reduction restrict the price, while policy expectations and demand support the price [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The market is optimistic about the future trend, considering the Fed's interest rate cut and pre - holiday replenishment [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the steel supply pressure is increasing. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the steel export situation is mixed. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were strong at night. The USDA report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market. The positive signal of Sino - US trade relations may put pressure on the domestic market [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while the rapeseed oil futures rose slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the market is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the Fed's interest rate cut, with an expected oscillatory trend [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the Brazilian sugar production and export situation is changing. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is dragged down by import pressure. The short - term trend is weak, with a possible rebound [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures declined. The international cotton supply pressure remains, and the domestic market is in the new - cotton acquisition stage. The new - cotton pre - sale and acquisition expectations support the price, but the high - yield expectation and weak downstream demand limit the upward momentum. The short - term trend is oscillatory [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index of container shipping to Europe weakened rapidly on Friday, with the October contract falling below 1100 points. The SCFI European line price decreased, and the freight rate continued to decline in September. The shipping capacity will decrease in October, and the decline rate of freight rates may slow down after the National Day holiday [33].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. The night - session copper price rose 0.29%. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry shows positive growth, PV installation surges year - on - year but future growth may slow; auto production and sales are positive; home appliance output growth slows; the real estate sector remains weak. Multiple factors are intertwined [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. The night - session zinc price dropped 0.61%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are generally rising, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to increase. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth slows, and the real estate sector remains weak. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Night - session copper price closed up 0.29%. Smelting output is growing despite tight concentrate supply and pressured profits. The power industry has positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase with possible future slowdown, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth slows, and real estate is weak. Copper prices may have range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc price closed down 0.61%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, leading to positive smelting profits and expected output increase. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth slows, and real estate is weak. Zinc prices may have wide - range weak fluctuations. Suggest to focus on the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 79,910 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 50 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 9,997 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 64.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 148,875 tons with a daily decrease of 900 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,780 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,676 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 5.43 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 513,900 tons with a daily increase of 30,125 tons [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,045 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,899 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 50.91 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 48,825 tons with a daily decrease of 150 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,500 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,680 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 15,270 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 179.40 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 228,450 tons with a daily decrease of 18 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 17,150 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 115 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,003 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 43.72 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 222,675 tons with a daily decrease of 2,675 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 268,770 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 1,910 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 34,220 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 124.41 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,645 tons with no daily change [2].

Report Summary 1. Overall Market Conditions - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, marking the largest decline in nearly four years [1]. - The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged but remained cautious about further rate cuts this year due to growing concerns about inflation rebound [1]. - Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasuries reached a new high in July, with Japan's holdings hitting a more than one - year high, China's hitting a more than sixteen - year low, and Canada's holdings decreasing sharply by $57.1 billion [1]. 2. Key Investment Products Analysis Stock Index - US stock indexes rose, while the domestic stock index fluctuated. The trading volume on the previous trading day was 3.17 trillion yuan. On September 17, the margin trading balance increased by 12.711 billion yuan to 23.88522 trillion yuan [2][11]. - The market is in a high - level consolidation phase after a long - term rise. The strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][11]. Gold - After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in line with market expectations. The dot - plot shows that the Fed expects to cut rates by 25 - 50 basis points this year and below 3.5% next year [3][19]. - US economic data shows a mixed picture. Retail sales in August were strong, but employment data was weak. The long - term drivers for gold are clear, but short - term adjustments may occur due to profit - taking [3][19]. Copper - Copper prices rose 0.1% at night. The supply of concentrates remains tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [4][20]. 3. Daily News Highlights International News - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 13 was 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000 [5][6]. Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to expand the scope of unilateral visa - free countries, promote service exports, and implement tax - refund policies. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism launched a consumption plan and issued over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies [7]. Industry News - The research paper on the DeepSeek - R1 inference model co - completed by the DeepSeek team and Liang Wenfeng was published on the cover of Nature, filling the gap of mainstream large - language models without independent review [8]. 4. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Similar to the previous analysis, it is in a high - level consolidation phase, with different index characteristics [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rising to 1.7825%. The central bank increased net investment, but the money market tightened. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell slightly at night. The Fed's rate cut may boost oil demand but also raises concerns about the economy. Global oil inventories have increased for six consecutive months [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.98% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly. Coastal inventories are at a high level, and the short - term outlook is bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Thursday. Supply has increased, and demand has improved seasonally. The short - term decline is expected to be limited, and the market may fluctuate [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices fell. The fundamentals are mainly driven by supply and demand. After continuous decline, the market may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures declined. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and the focus is on the supply - side reduction effect [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the gold analysis, prices fell after the Fed's decision. Long - term drivers are clear, but short - term adjustments may occur [19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose slightly at night. Multiple factors are intertwined, and prices may fluctuate within a range [4][20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.09% at night. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has increased, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. Prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has increased slightly, while demand shows a mixed picture. The futures price may be volatile, and the price is supported by downstream procurement demand [22][23]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated. The inventory pressure and profit contraction of finished products restrict the market, while policy expectations provide support [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and iron ore demand is supported. Global iron ore shipments have decreased, and port inventories are decreasing rapidly. The market is expected to be bullish [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. The export situation is mixed. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the overall view is bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. The USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. The expected improvement in trade relations may put pressure on domestic prices [27]. - **Edible Oils**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed oil were strong at night, while palm oil prices fell slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil have decreased, and the market may fluctuate [28][29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak due to increased supply and inventory. Domestic sugar prices are supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories but may be dragged down by import pressure [30]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices showed a mixed performance. The freight rate of shipping companies has decreased during the National Day holiday, and the 12 - contract is relatively resistant. Attention should be paid to the follow - up rate cuts of shipping companies [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was weak, with the 10 - contract falling 6.72%. The freight rate of shipping companies has decreased significantly, and the 12 - contract is relatively resistant. Attention should be paid to the follow - up rate cuts of shipping companies [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The September trend of the stock index is more volatile compared to July and August, and it is in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. In the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are rich in technology - growth components, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are rich in dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with declines ranging from - 61.20 to - 70.20 and drop - rates from - 1.35% to - 1.56%. The trading volume of IF contracts was between 17,518.00 and 95,637.00, and the open interest changes ranged from - 22,028.00 to 18,854.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts increased, with rises from 3.80 to 6.20 and increase - rates from 0.13% to 0.21%. The trading volume of IH contracts was between 3,627.00 and 29,648.00, and the open interest changes ranged from - 4,903.00 to 5,476.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts increased, with rises from 79.80 to 93.40 and increase - rates from 1.17% to 1.31%. The trading volume of IC contracts was between 16,292.00 and 67,086.00, and the open interest changes ranged from - 20,158.00 to 6,496.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts increased, with rises from 93.00 to 99.40 and increase - rates from 1.25% to 1.41%. The trading volume of IM contracts was between 25,839.00 and 122,397.00, and the open interest changes ranged from - 23,457.00 to 11,171.00 [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 11.20, - 0.60, - 55.40, and - 66.80 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The index points increased by 0.61%, with a trading volume of 23.572 billion lots and a total trading value of 608.454 billion yuan [1]. - **SSE 50 Index**: The index points decreased by 1.35% [1]. - **CSI 500 Index**: The index points increased, with a trading volume of 25.826 billion lots and a total trading value of 445.549 billion yuan [1]. - **CSI 1000 Index**: The index points increased by 0.95%, with a trading volume of 30.901 billion lots and a total trading value of 474.734 billion yuan [1]. - **CSI 300 Industry Index**: The main consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, real - estate and finance, and information technology sectors had previous values of 22,952.88, 9,661.44, 6,551.58, and 3,277.17 respectively, with a 0.76% increase in the main consumption sector [1]. - **Other Industries**: The telecommunications business and public utilities sectors had previous values of 5,079.10 and 2,514.52 respectively, with increase - rates of 0.05% and 0.01% [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300 Futures - Spot Basis**: The previous values of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF far - quarter - CSI 300 were 2.18, - 9.22, - 32.82, and - 58.22 respectively [1]. - **SSE 50 Futures - Spot Basis**: No specific data provided in the report. - **CSI 500 Futures - Spot Basis**: The previous values of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC far - quarter - CSI 500 were - 25.79, - 83.59, - 194.19, and - 358.99 respectively [1]. - **CSI 1000 Futures - Spot Basis**: No specific data provided in the report. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index increased by 0.37%, 1.16%, 0.99%, and 1.95% respectively. The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index had previous values of 26,908.39, 44,790.38, 8,042.44, and 3,147.35 respectively [1]. - **Industry Indices**: The energy, raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption sectors had previous values of 23,087.18, 9,595.53, 6,558.44, and 3,252.48 respectively, with increase - rates of - 0.58%, 0.69%, - 0.10% [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - **Trade Issues**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated its stance on the TikTok issue, opposed the EU's weaponization of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and initiated an anti - dumping investigation on relevant EU pork products [2]. - **Science and Technology Input**: Minister of Science and Technology Yin Hejun said that in the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's R & D investment continued to increase. In 2024, the total R & D investment exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan, a 48% increase from 2020, and the R & D investment intensity reached 2.68%, exceeding the average level of EU countries [2]. - **Service Enterprises**: The China Enterprise Confederation and the China Entrepreneurs Association released the "Top 500 Chinese Service Enterprises in 2025", with the total operating income of the short - listed enterprises reaching 51.1 trillion yuan in 2024 and the average operating income exceeding 100 billion yuan for the first time [2]. - **Social Insurance**: Beijing and Shanghai announced the upper and lower limits of social insurance payment bases for 2025. Beijing's upper limit was 35,811 yuan and the lower limit was 7,162 yuan; Shanghai's upper limit was 37,302 yuan and the lower limit was 7,460 yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - **New Energy Vehicles**: China's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 40 million, ranking first in the world for 10 consecutive years. The preliminary estimate of the retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in September was about 2.15 million, a 6.5% month - on - month increase and a 2.0% year - on - year increase. The retail volume of new energy vehicles could reach about 1.25 million, with a penetration rate of 58.1%. By the end of August 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (piles) in China reached 17.348 million, a 53.5% year - on - year increase [2]. - **Postal Industry**: In August, the business income of the postal industry was 142.99 billion yuan, a 4.4% year - on - year increase, and the express delivery business income was 118.96 billion yuan, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative business income of the postal industry was 1,161.06 billion yuan, a 7.8% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative express delivery business income was 958.37 billion yuan, a 9.2% year - on - year increase [2]. - **Property Insurance Industry**: In the first half of 2025, the premium growth rate of the Chinese property insurance industry was 4.2%, slightly lower than the same period last year. The underwriting profit reached 26 billion yuan, a record high for the same period, and the number of profitable underwriting entities exceeded half for the first time. The property reinsurance market had stable growth for many years, and the reinsurance premium ceded in half a year exceeded 100 billion yuan for the first time [2].

Report Overview - The report is the Shenwan Futures Non - ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report dated September 19, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weakly downward fluctuations as short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2] Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices rose 0.1%. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues high growth. Power industry shows positive growth, PV rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Copper prices may range - bound, and factors like the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be monitored [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices rose 0.09%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth is slightly positive, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Short - term supply - demand may lean towards surplus, and zinc prices may have range - bound and weakly downward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Market Data Domestic Futures and Basis | Variety | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 79,620 | 30 | | Aluminum | 20,775 | - 20 | | Zinc | 22,035 | - 65 | | Nickel | 120,940 | - 1,630 | | Lead | 17,145 | - 120 | | Tin | 269,100 | 3,060 | [2] LME Data | Variety | LME 3 - month Previous Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 9,946 | - 71.09 | 149,775 | - 1,175 | | Aluminum | 2,705 | 4.89 | 483,775 | 0 | | Zinc | 2,913 | 24.27 | 48,975 | 0 | | Nickel | 15,335 | - 177.83 | 228,468 | 2,034 | | Lead | 2,004 | - 44.05 | 225,350 | - 2,500 | | Tin | 33,750 | - 155.00 | 2,645 | 0 | [2]