1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The A-share market withstood the downward pressure from countervailing tariffs, and the implied volatility significantly declined. The subsequent focus is on China's effective policies to boost the domestic economy. It is recommended to cautiously go long [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for different periods (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 3765.40, 3737.80, 3710.60, and 3656.60 respectively, with increases of 26.60, 27.60, 33.00, and 29.80, and increases of 0.71%, 0.74%, 0.90%, and 0.82% respectively. The trading volumes were 35237.00, 27620.00, 55799.00, and 10594.00 respectively, and the open interests were 26834.00, 42726.00, 141593.00, and 56169.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -19051.00, 10271.00, 53.00, and 1575.00 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for different periods were 2656.80, 2644.80, 2633.60, and 2599.40 respectively, with increases of 20.60, 21.20, 21.40, and 20.20, and increases of 0.78%, 0.81%, 0.82%, and 0.78% respectively. The trading volumes were 13351.00, 10558.00, 28211.00, and 4407.00 respectively, and the open interests were 10651.00, 14318.00, 44853.00, and 17663.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -6551.00, 2153.00, -1545.00, and -225.00 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for different periods were 5551.20, 5483.60, 5406.60, and 5280.20 respectively, with increases of 26.00, 44.40, 51.20, and 53.80, and increases of 0.47%, 0.82%, 0.96%, and 1.03% respectively. The trading volumes were 34523.00, 27886.00, 44149.00, and 10689.00 respectively, and the open interests were 21987.00, 47876.00, 99918.00, and 47082.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -14575.00, 10685.00, 3537.00, and 2096.00 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for different periods were 5845.80, 5749.80, 5653.80, and 5488.00 respectively, with increases of 38.20, 49.60, 59.40, and 60.80, and increases of 0.66%, 0.87%, 1.06%, and 1.12% respectively. The trading volumes were 44139.00, 39973.00, 156019.00, and 26102.00 respectively, and the open interests were 29741.00, 55797.00, 168300.00, and 74750.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -20911.00, 8196.00, -2771.00, and -3479.00 respectively [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were -27.60, -12.00, -67.60, and -96.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of -31.60, -14.80, -85.60, and -106.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value was 3772.22, with a decrease of 0.02%. The total trading volume was 2090.12 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 122.37 billion lots [1]. - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value was 2659.90, with an increase of 0.05%. The total trading volume was 713.71 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 37.88 billion lots [1]. - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value was 5557.01, with an increase of 0.00%. The total trading volume was 1482.83 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 113.65 billion lots [1]. - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value was 5839.56, with an increase of 0.07%. The total trading volume was 2129.48 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 173.20 billion lots [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries had different changes in the CSI 300 industry index. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption industries decreased by -0.11%, -0.33%, -0.07%, and -0.86% respectively; while the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries increased by 0.57%, 0.05%, 0.18%, and 0.09% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities industries decreased by -0.32% and -0.36% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and CSI 300**: The previous values of the basis for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) relative to the CSI 300 were -6.82, -34.42, -61.62, and -115.62 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -17.42, -49.02, -82.02, and -137.62 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts and SSE 50**: The previous values of the basis for IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 were -3.10, -15.10, -26.30, and -60.50 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -13.90, -28.70, -38.50, and -72.90 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts and CSI 500**: The previous values of the basis for IC contracts relative to the CSI 500 were -5.81, -73.41, -150.41, and -276.81 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -16.46, -102.06, -190.26, and -317.06 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The previous values of the basis for IM contracts relative to the CSI 1000 were 6.24, -89.76, -185.76, and -351.56 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -15.55, -121.55, -232.35, and -400.95 respectively [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by -0.16%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by -0.21%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.09% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.61%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 1.35%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.13%, and the DAX Index decreased by -0.49% [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - China and Cambodia agreed to build a China - Cambodia community with a shared future in the new era and announced 2025 as the "China - Cambodia Tourism Year." They also exchanged more than 30 bilateral cooperation texts [2]. - The European Central Bank cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 2.4%, and the marginal lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.65%, which was the 7th rate cut since last June [2]. - There were discussions about whether to remove Fed Chairman Powell before his term ends next year, but no final decision has been made [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized the 2025 industrial energy - saving and carbon - reduction diagnostic service, covering 12 high - energy - consuming fields [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation will carry out a rectification of the advertising market order [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported electrolytic capacitor paper from Japan for 5 years [2]. - In March, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.56, a 3.1% decrease from the previous month and flat compared with the same period last year, and the inventory level was above the warning line [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes mainly declined. In the previous trading day, the stock indexes rose, with the real - estate sector leading the rise and the automobile sector leading the decline. The total trading volume was 1.03 trillion yuan. IH2504, IF2504, IC2504, and IM2504 increased by 0.78%, 0.71%, 0.47%, and 0.66% respectively [2]. - On April 16, the margin trading balance decreased by 51.79 billion yuan to 18024.09 billion yuan [2].

| | 黑色产业链基差及价差日报20250418 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 钢材：国内宏观落地，海外扰动弹性降低，基本面成交继续支撑，发改委明确继续压减粗钢产量但具 | | | | | 体细节尚未出台，阶段性宏观氛围有转暖迹象且国内政策预期再起，短期震荡走强后偏弱看待。 | | | | | 铁矿石：中期供需失衡压力较大，铁矿石下半年发运量预计增长较快，关注后续钢厂复产进度，短期 | | | | 摘要 | 缺乏驱动整体跟随成材，宏观情绪阶段性转暖可能带来波段反弹行情，铁矿石短期反弹后偏弱看待。 | | | | | 煤焦：终端用钢需求的表现不及预期，在铁水产量趋于回落的预期下、双焦价格上方承压，关注铁水 | | | | 高位产量的持续情况。 | | | | | | 铁合金：钢厂减产预期下双硅价格难以向上突破，仍需持续关注厂家停减产动向。 | | | | 品种 | 观点 | | 策略方向 | | | 关税影响对钢材为豁免状态，影响不直接。间接出口影响尚未实际兑现，不过情绪的短期释放还是会有所压制，终 | | | | | 端需求表现偏弱，基本面角度没有出现继续转好的情况， ...

| | 1、央行公告称，4月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2455亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量2455 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量2455亿元。Wind数据显示，当日659亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1796亿元。 | | | 2、习近平同柬埔寨首相洪玛奈举行会谈，两国领导人一致同意携手构建新时代全天候中柬命运共同体，宣布2025年为 | | | "中柬旅游年"。习近平同柬埔寨首相洪玛奈共同见证中柬双方交换30多份双边合作文本，涵盖产供链合作、人工智 | | | 能、发展援助、海关检验检疫、卫生、新闻等领域。 | | | 3、国务院副总理何立峰会见美国英伟达公司总裁兼首席执行官黄仁勋时指出，中国市场投资和消费潜力巨大，产业转 型升级加快推进，是新一轮科技革命和产业变革的最佳应用场景，始终是外资企业投资和贸易的沃土。欢迎包括英伟 | | 宏观 | 达公司在内的更多美资企业深耕中国市场，在中国尽展产业优势和能力，进而在全球竞争中赢得先机。 | | 消息 | 4、商务部回应是否在工作层面与美方展开沟通：中国商务部与美方对口部门一直保持工作层沟通，中方的立场 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) opened low and fluctuated, with the 06 contract closing at 1555.2 points, down 1.67%. After the fermentation of the global trade demand recession expectation under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, the expected node of the traditional seasonal peak season for the European line has been postponed, and the space is limited. Maersk continued to offer a large container quote of $1800 in the first week of May, using the quote at the end of April. In the second week of May, the large container quote was slightly reduced by $50 to $1750. Both HMM and ONE reduced their large container quotes starting from the 17th week to below $2000. The average large container quote at the beginning of May was around $2100, slightly lower than the current average quote at the end of April. The possibility of a peak season inflection point in early May is small, and the market is cautious about the peak season space expectation. Currently, the start of the festival stocking season for the European line has not been seen, and with more shipping capacity supply from shipping companies in the second half of May, the short - term EC may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent capacity regulation and price increase progress of shipping companies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - **EC2504**: The latest成交价 is 1428.9 points, down 0.31%. The trading volume is 81, and the open interest on one side is 1158. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 92 [1]. - **EC2506**: The latest成交价 is 1555.2 points, down 1.67%. The trading volume is 66899, and the open interest on one side is 36947. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1261 [1]. - **EC2508**: The latest成交价 is 1646 points, down 0.87%. The trading volume is 20099, and the open interest on one side is 30775. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 912 [1]. - **EC2510**: The latest成交价 is 1314.8 points, up 0.40%. The trading volume is 6862, and the open interest on one side is 16254 [1]. - **EC2512**: The latest成交价 is 1465.2 points, down 0.36%. The trading volume is 1041, and the open interest on one side is 3789 [1]. - **EC2602**: The latest成交价 is 1315.9 points, up 0.88%. The trading volume is 543, and the open interest on one side is 2765 [1]. - **Total**: The total trading volume is 95525, and the total open interest on one side is 91688. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2265 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - **Weekly Spot Index**: The SCFIS is 1402.35 points, down 1.4%; SCFI is $1356/TEU, up 1.5% [1]. - **Daily Spot Freight Rates**: TCI(20GP) is $1564/TEU, unchanged; TCI(40GP) is $2538/FEU, unchanged [1]. - **Basis Spread**: The basis spread on the previous trading day was - 152.85 points, a change of - 14.6 points compared with the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity - **Capacity Allocation**: The capacity allocation on the Asia - Europe route is 489606 TEU, a decrease of 1000 TEU. The idle capacity ratio is 2.0%. For different types of container ships, the idle capacity ratios of 17000TEU +, 12000 - 16999TEU, and 8000 - 11999TEU container ships are 1.3%, 0.2%, and 2.4% respectively [4]. - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships is 14.01 knots, and the average speeds of 17000TEU + and 12000 - 16999TEU container ships are 15.65 and 15.41 knots respectively [4]. - **Capacity in Port**: The capacity in port in Rotterdam is 24.590,000 TEU, in Hamburg is 9.870,000 TEU, and in Singapore is 34.750,000 TEU [4]. - **Routing Situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 7, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 4, and the south - bound traffic volume is 3 [4]. - **Time Charter Rates**: The time charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU ships are $106000, $73500, and $33750 per day respectively [4].

策 略 征关税对于需求的不利影响。同时，上周连续止跌反弹会后，市场情绪略有平复。后市关注 油价运行方向以及聚烯烃下游消费热度。 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货投资咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货投资咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 ...

| CNF到岸价: | | --- | | 指标 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 2025/4/18 申万期货品种策略日报- 油脂油料 申银万国期货研究所 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；投资咨询号:Z0019570） lijy@sywgqh.com.cn 国 内 期 货 市 场 豆油主力 棕榈油主力 菜油主力 豆粕主力 菜粕主力 花生主力 前日收盘价 7748 8204 9391 3020 2487 8844 涨跌 96 126 66 7 -19 26 涨跌幅(%) 1.25% 1.56% -3.15% 0.23% -0.76% 0.29% 价差 Y9-1 P9-1 OI9-1 Y-P09 OI-Y09 OI-P09 现值 56 54 157 -456 1643 1187 前值 16 68 181 -426 1673 1247 比价-价差 M9-1 RM9-1 M-RM09 M/RM09 Y/M09 Y-M09 现值 -24 182 434 1.17 2.57 4728 前值 -26 169 419 1.16 2.54 4639 国 际 期 货 市 场 BMD棕榈油/ 林吉特/吨 CBOT大豆/美 ...

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 17 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：商品涨跌互现，金价再创新高 国家统计局公布数据，一季度国内生产总值同比增长 5.4%，环比增长 1.2%。3 月 规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 7.7% ，装备制造业和高技术制造业较快增 长，新能源汽车继续保持高速增长态势。由于汽车购买量大幅增加，美国 3 月零 售销售环比增长 1.4%，增幅创两年多来最大，表明消费者正赶在惩罚性汽车关 税之前购买汽车。但随着特朗普推进关税，一些通胀预期指标飙升，削弱了美国 人对自己财务状况的看法，低收入消费者已面临困境，而较富裕的消费者则受到 股市抛售打击，这给支出前景蒙上了阴影。现货黄金史上首次站上 3300 美元/盎 司，日内暴涨 70 美元，涨幅超 2%。受金价大幅波动影响，部分投资者选择囤货 待涨。 重点品种：橡胶、原油、贵金属 橡胶：周三橡胶走势回落，国内产区气候较好，产区逐步开割，泰国减产季即将 结束。青岛地区总库存持续增加，库存周期转变较为明显，美关税政策影响短期 反复，预计仍将延续，关税政策本质上对原料端不利，中长期终端消费的变化路 径仍存在不确定性，消费端分析逻辑可能发生改变，需要持 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel prices in the short - term are expected to show different trends. Copper and zinc may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations, aluminum may have short - term oscillatory movements, and nickel may also have short - term oscillations [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices rose over 1%. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power investment driven by the grid growing strongly, home appliance production continuing to increase, and new energy vehicle copper demand expected to be consolidated. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, inventory, and basis need attention [1]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices fell. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales, infrastructure, and home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real estate data has narrowed. The market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply this year. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, and smelting output should be monitored [1]. Aluminum - Night - session Shanghai aluminum prices rose 0.33%. US tariff policies are inconsistent, and the non - ferrous sector is under pressure. Although the market has a bottom - fishing sentiment due to low alumina prices and low profits, supply is still sufficient, limiting price increases. Downstream demand is warming up in April. Considering tariff uncertainties, Shanghai aluminum may oscillate in the short term [1]. Nickel - Night - session Shanghai nickel prices rose 0.72%. Nickel ore supply is uncertain, and market sentiment has improved. The PNBP policy in Indonesia may lead to higher nickel ore prices. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and nickel salt prices may rise. Stainless steel demand is average. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term [1]. 4. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M) (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 75,350 | 35 | 9,189 | - 32.22 | 216,250 | 3,775 | | Aluminum | 19,615 | 20 | 2,389 | - 37.00 | 436,975 | - 2,350 | | Zinc | 22,180 | 165 | 2,578 | - 31.57 | 190,550 | 78,525 | | Nickel | 124,140 | - 1,510 | 15,595 | - 202.64 | 202,590 | - 228 | | Lead | 16,655 | - 5 | 1,904 | - 16.24 | 283,125 | 17,575 | | Tin | 255,150 | 2,660 | 30,960 | - 264.00 | 2,845 | 0 | [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2506 | TS2509 | TF2506 | TF2509 | T2506 | T2509 | TL2506 | TL2509 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.562 | 102.724 | 106.390 | 106.670 | 109.135 | 109.235 | 120.04 | 120.21 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.544 | 102.718 | 106.295 | 106.560 | 108.960 | 109.065 | 119.78 | 119.9 | | | 涨跌 | 0.018 | 0.006 | 0.095 | 0.110 | 0.175 | 0.170 | 0.260 | 0.310 | ...

申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 投资咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货投资咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货投资咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合 ...