Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the long - term, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. For stocks, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. For bonds, the market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern. For precious metals, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. For various industrial products and agricultural products, specific analysis should be based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market sentiment [4][8][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - finance 1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin level and the daily limit for silver deferred contracts. Dozens of varieties such as Shanghai silver, palladium, and platinum hit the daily limit down. Tesla plans to mass - produce dry electrode technology and will unveil its third - generation humanoid robot, with an expected annual production of one million units. Geely's sales in January exceeded BYD's, with overseas sales increasing by 121.2% and 51.47% respectively year - on - year. The DRAM contract price for OEMs is around $10 - 20 per GB, much lower than the spot price [2]. - **Strategy View**: In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the market rhythm, and the strategy should be to buy on dips [4]. 1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes in closing prices. China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, and the manufacturing industry maintained an expansion trend. Citigroup Research warned that the gold valuation has reached an extreme level [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic recovery foundation is not yet solid, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, and the bond market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern [8]. 1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 3.61%, and Shanghai silver fell 17.04%. On Monday, gold and silver were heavily sold, hitting the daily limit down. The US manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was significantly higher than expected, indicating a recovery in the industry [9]. - **Strategy View**: The sharp reversal of the macro - market expectation led to a large - scale exit of long positions. The strong recovery of the US manufacturing industry may make the Fed more cautious about interest rate cuts, suppressing precious metal prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [11]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals 2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The US dollar index continued to rise, and non - ferrous metals declined. LME copper inventories decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventories increased slightly [13]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's plan to start a strategic key mineral reserve program and the better - than - expected manufacturing PMI in the US and the eurozone have eased the sentiment. The copper supply is expected to be stable, and the copper price is expected to stabilize [14]. 2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The sharp decline in silver prices spread pessimism, and the aluminum price dropped significantly. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continued to accumulate, and the demand was weak [15]. - **Strategy View**: Although the domestic demand is weak, the LME aluminum inventory is relatively low, and the aluminum price has strong support. If the precious metal volatility decreases and the domestic inventory situation is better than the seasonal average, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize [16]. 2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell on Monday. The LME zinc inventory accumulation slowed down, and the overseas natural gas price increase raised concerns about the cost of European smelters [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is currently following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. The subsequent trading focus may return to the industrial logic [18]. 2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell on Monday. The lead ore and recycled waste inventories increased, and the downstream battery enterprise operating rate decreased slightly [19]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial situation of lead is weak. The better - than - expected US manufacturing PMI has eased the panic to some extent [20]. 2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 2, the nickel price dropped significantly. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [21]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The market may return to real - world trading, and the increase in refined nickel production and inventory will put pressure on the price [22]. 2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: On February 2, the tin price fell and hit the daily limit down. The supply increase was limited, and the demand was weak [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin market supply - demand is marginally loose, and the inventory is rising. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [23]. 2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate price dropped significantly. The contract total position reached a new low since late October [24]. - **Strategy View**: The buying sentiment in the commodity market has cooled significantly. Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, the market atmosphere has a greater impact. It is recommended to be cautious and observe or try with a light position [24]. 2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly on February 2. The Guinea ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the supply - side policy, Guinea ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [26]. 2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price dropped on Monday. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the inventory turnover slowed down [27]. - **Strategy View**: The cost support of the industrial chain is still strong, and the price has strong support below. The bullish view remains unchanged [28]. 2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The casting aluminum alloy price dropped significantly on February 2. The cost price dropped significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly [30]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is average, the price has support in the short - term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [31]. 3. Black Building Materials 3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The螺纹 steel production remained high, and the demand decreased seasonally. The hot - rolled coil demand was relatively stable, and the inventory continued to decline slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy adjustments [34]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price dropped on Monday. The overseas iron ore shipments increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [35]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas shipments are entering the off - season, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The price has support below and is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mills' replenishment and iron - making production rhythm [36]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The coking coal and coke prices fluctuated on February 2. The coking coal supply is gradually becoming looser, and the downstream inventory replenishment willingness is low [37]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the high - volatility risk [41]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price remained stable, and the soda ash price dropped slightly. The glass inventory decreased slightly, and the soda ash inventory increased slightly [42][44]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and the soda ash market is expected to be weakly stable and fluctuate [43][46]. 3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices dropped slightly on February 2. The manganese silicon supply is loose, and the ferrosilicon supply - demand is basically balanced [47]. - **Strategy View**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the black sector's direction and cost factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation and "dual - carbon" policy [49]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price dropped slightly, and the polysilicon price dropped slightly. The industrial silicon supply decreased, and the polysilicon demand decreased [50][52]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon supply - demand is expected to improve in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The polysilicon supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure [51][53]. 4. Energy and Chemicals 4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities dropped significantly, and the rubber market was affected by both long and short factors. The tire enterprise operating rate and the natural rubber inventory had different changes [55][56]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and strictly control risks. The strategy of buying NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [58]. 4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price dropped significantly, and the refined oil prices also dropped. The European refined oil inventory had different changes [59]. - **Strategy View**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [60]. 4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price dropped, and the MTO profit increased [61]. - **Strategy View**: The current methanol price has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upward space [62]. 4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price dropped slightly, and the overall basis was - 17 yuan/ton [63]. - **Strategy View**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and the fundamentals are expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. 4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price dropped, and the styrene price had different trends in spot and futures. The supply and demand sides had different changes [65]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene non - integrated profit has been significantly repaired. It is recommended to gradually take profits [66]. 4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price dropped, the production was at a high level, and the downstream demand was weak. The export was the only short - term support [67]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. The short - term price is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush. Attention should be paid to capacity and operating rate changes [68]. 4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price dropped, the supply load was high, and the demand load decreased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [69]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand situation needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. The valuation is expected to be compressed in the medium - term [70]. 4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price dropped, the supply was in high - maintenance, and the demand decreased due to the off - season. The inventory increased during the Spring Festival [71]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA processing fee has a high expected component, and there is a risk of correction in the short - term. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [73]. 4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price dropped, the load was high, and the downstream PTA was in maintenance. The inventory was expected to accumulate before the maintenance season [74]. - **Strategy View**: The mid - term pattern is good. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips following the crude oil price [75]. 4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price dropped, the upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [76]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline. The supply support has returned, and the demand is in the off - season [77]. 4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price dropped, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [78]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. The supply - surplus pattern is expected to change in the first quarter of next year, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [80]. 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price generally rose, but the short - term price is expected to stabilize [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price is under pressure, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. The long - term price has support, and attention should be paid to the downside support after the decline [83]. 5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly declined, and it is expected to be stable in the short - term [84]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price may fluctuate weakly, and the long - term price may correct the valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [85]. 5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price dropped, and the domestic soybean inventory decreased. The USDA report data was slightly bearish, but the short - term fundamentals are improving [86][87]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out [88]. 5.4 Oils - **Market Information**: The oil futures price dropped, the Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the domestic oil inventory decreased slightly. The short - term price was affected by the decline of commodities [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term oil price may have bottomed out. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then try to buy [90]. 5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar futures price dropped slightly, and the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. The Indian sugar production increased, and the domestic sugar import increased [91]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [93]. 5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton futures price dropped, the spinning mill operating rate decreased, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased slightly. The US cotton export decreased [94][95]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term cotton price fluctuates widely, and the long - term price has room to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips before the Spring Festival [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the overall commodities have risen sharply with strong buying enthusiasm and large fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. The suggestion to buy NR main contract and short RU2609 should be postponed [14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and rush - to - export sentiment support it. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. It is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The PE valuation still has room to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the demand side shows a downward trend in the overall operating rate [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation has risen. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage with short - term high maintenance on the supply side and declining demand from polyester and chemical fiber due to the off - season. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. - For ethylene glycol, in the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 3.80 yuan/barrel, a 0.81% increase, at 470.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore ESG weekly oil data showed gasoline inventory increased by 1.09 million barrels to 16.91 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.04 million barrels to 8.60 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.44 million barrels to 19.94 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 45.44 million barrels [2][3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 5 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan and Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 15.00 yuan/ton to 2320 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 103 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The current price suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, limiting the upside [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and those in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 30 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: The import window has opened, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, short on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities such as copper and crude oil rose sharply but fell back after the night session. The short - term market is priced by funds with low correlation to fundamentals. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [11]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. Postpone adding or opening positions for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 168 yuan to 5063 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable or changed slightly, the overall operating rate was 78.9%, and the downstream operating rate was 44.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 1.8 tons to 29 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 120.6 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support it, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene rose, and the basis widened. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the port inventory continued to increase [19]. - **Strategy**: The upward valuation repair space of styrene is shrinking. Gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 7014 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11% [22]. - **Strategy**: The crude oil price may have bottomed. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the demand side shows a downward trend in the seasonal off - season [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 6824 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The inventory of production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02% [24]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 98 yuan to 7282 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. The PTA load remained flat. The import of South Korean PX to China decreased in mid - early January, and the inventory increased in late November [26]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. There are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 62 yuan to 5270 yuan. The PTA load remained flat, and the downstream load decreased. The social inventory increased in late January, and the processing fee increased [28]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 44 yuan to 3913 yuan. The supply - side load increased, the downstream load decreased, the import to - port forecast was 14.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 tons to 85.8 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32].

有色金属日报 2026-2-2 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美伊局势有所缓和，特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主席，贵金属大跌，铜价跟随下 挫，周五伦铜 3M 收盘跌 4.63%至 13070 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 103190 元/吨。 LME 铜库存减少 1100 至 174975 吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 贴水 89.9 美元/吨。 国内上期所周度库存增加 0.7 至 23.3 万吨，日度仓单增加 0.5 至 15.7 万吨，上海地区 现货贴水期货 150 元/吨，盘面波动加剧，月差扩大推动基差报价小幅反弹，广东地区 现货贴水期货 220 元/吨，市场交投活跃度一般。沪铜现货进口亏损有所扩大。精废铜 价差 3630 元/吨，环比缩窄。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate within a range, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" policies [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue. However, in the short term, factors such as the sharp adjustment of precious metals, the appointment of the new Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of multiple US federal government departments may suppress the overall market atmosphere [8][14] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.7341 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 51270 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3288 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.60%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 190323 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2655 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5297 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 17466 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] b. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. Domestically, the policy tone was relatively stable. Overseas, the market's dovish expectations declined, and commodity prices cooled down. The rebar output remained high, the apparent demand declined seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, and the inventory started to accumulate but the overall amplitude was controllable. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, the output was moderately high, and the inventory continued to decline slightly [2] Iron Ore a. Market Information - Last Friday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.88% (- 7.00). The position changed by - 14164 lots to 541200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 894300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.17% [3] b. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly. The shipment volume from Australia increased month - on - month, and that from Brazil remained stable. The shipments of three major Australian mines increased, while that of Vale decreased slightly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries declined from a high level. The recent arrival volume continued to decline. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 227.98 tons, a month - on - month slight decline. Some blast furnaces in certain regions were undergoing annual inspections, and the复产 of blast furnaces was mainly due to the end of maintenance. The profitability rate of steel mills declined slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which put pressure on the absolute price. The inventory of imported ore in steel mills continued to rise, and steel mills continued to replenish their stocks before the festival. In general, the overseas supply was entering the off - season, the supply pressure was gradually alleviating, the structural inventory problem was not resolved, and the pre - festival procurement by steel mills after price decline provided some support. The short - term iron ore price was expected to fluctuate mainly [4] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Market Information - On January 30th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.91% at 5872 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5780 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5970 yuan/ton on the futures market, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 1.32% at 5660 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - Last week, the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon continued to fluctuate. The weekly weighted index of manganese silicon increased by 22 yuan/ton or + 0.38%, and that of ferrosilicon increased by 10 yuan/ton or + 0.18%. Technically, there was no obvious trend for both [7] b. Strategy Viewpoints - The recent sharp fluctuations in the commodity market were triggered by the appointment of the new Fed chairman, which led to expectations of a marginal tightening of the denominator. The previous strong - performing lithium carbonate also declined significantly, suppressing the overall commodity sentiment. However, the black sector was supported by the relaxation of the "three red lines" in the real estate industry and the successful extension of Vanke's debt. In the long - term, the commodity bulls were expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the adjustment of precious metals, the appointment of the Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of US federal government departments might suppress the market atmosphere. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern was not ideal, but most of these factors were already reflected in the price. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand structure was basically balanced and was gradually improving. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon would be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors for manganese silicon and supply - contraction factors for ferrosilicon [8][9] Coking Coal and Coke a. Market Information - On January 30th, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.82% at 1155.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1584.8 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1395 yuan/ton, with a premium of 239.5 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1284 yuan/ton, with a premium of 128.5 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1209 yuan/ton, with a premium of 53.5 yuan/ton over the futures [11] - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.09% at 1721.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 4 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1710.5 yuan/ton, with a discount of 11 yuan/ton to the futures [11][12] - Last week, the coking coal price continued to fluctuate widely, with a weekly increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or + 0.04%. The coke price continued to fluctuate, with a weekly decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton or - 0.03% [12] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Similar to the overall market situation, the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market affected coking coal and coke. The black sector had short - term emotional support. In the long - term, the commodity bulls were expected to continue, but in the short - term, market sentiment was suppressed. In terms of supply - demand, the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke was gradually becoming looser. Although the downstream was still replenishing stocks, the inventory of coking coal in coking plants was approaching the level of the same period last year, and the willingness of downstream steel mills to replenish stocks was significantly weak. The short - term stock - replenishment was not expected to drive up prices strongly. However, the firm Australian coal prices and the US power shortage might have a positive impact on sentiment. In the context of global resource management, the "scarcity" premium of coking coal might be enhanced, providing some support for valuation. Overall, the short - term prices of coking coal and coke were expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Information - Industrial silicon: Last Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8850 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.84% (- 75). The weighted contract position changed by - 13784 lots to 353139 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 350 yuan/ton for the main contract. The price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis for the main contract was 0 yuan/ton after conversion [16] - Polysilicon: Last Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 47140 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4.45% (- 2195). The weighted contract position changed by - 710 lots to 76114 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 49 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.5 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 51.3 yuan/kg, down 1.2 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of 4160 yuan/ton for the main contract [19] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: It showed a pattern of rising in the afternoon and then falling last Friday. In terms of supply, Sichuan's production enterprises maintained the furnace - shutdown state, and enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia reduced production, with the weekly output continuing to decline. In terms of demand, a leading polysilicon enterprise shut down completely, and some other enterprises reduced production. The demand for industrial silicon was generally weak. In February, the production - reduction plan of a large factory in Xinjiang entered the implementation period. If the plan was implemented as rumored, the supply - demand balance sheet in February was expected to improve, and the sustainability depended on the shutdown duration. Overall, there was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the short - term, and the supply contraction provided strong support for the price. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the weakening downstream, the price was expected to fluctuate mainly [17][18] - Polysilicon: In the spot market, the price negotiation was intense, and the market information was chaotic. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was low, and some enterprises tried to lower the prices. The actual transaction prices declined. The silicon wafer segment was also under pressure, and the price of silicon materials weakened, which reduced the cost support. The terminal component prices continued to rise, and the battery segment's price continued to rise due to non - silicon costs and overseas demand. The supply - demand pattern was expected to improve in the first quarter as a leading enterprise shut down and some other enterprises reduced production. Policy expectations were expected to provide support for prices. The futures position and liquidity of polysilicon had fallen to a relatively low level since listing, and the futures price was expected to be under pressure due to the weakening spot prices. Attention should be paid to the feedback of terminal demand and possible new policy adjustments [20] Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Information - Glass: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 1.87% (+ 20) from the previous day. The price of large - size glass in North China was 1020 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and that in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 651,800 cases (- 1.22%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 8027 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 69570 lots [22] - Soda ash: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1224 yuan/ton, up 2.17% (+ 26) from the previous day. The price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe was 1184 yuan, up 26 yuan from the previous day. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.5442 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons (+ 1.22%), including 716,100 tons of heavy - soda ash inventory, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and 828,100 tons of light - soda ash inventory, a month - on - month increase of 3600 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 11413 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 8239 lots [24] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: As the Spring Festival approached, the downstream processing plants were approaching the end of work, the market demand was weakening, the trading activity was decreasing, and the procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The inventory - building was almost completed. In terms of supply, a production line was restarted and ignited recently, and there was no cold - repair plan, so the overall production capacity remained stable. The demand was limited due to the Spring Festival seasonality. Overall, the market lacked strong driving factors, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and manufacturers were not willing to adjust prices. Most of them aimed to maintain stable prices, promote sales, and reduce inventory. The float - glass market was expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 1025 - 1125 yuan/ton [23] - Soda ash: The supply in the industry remained loose. The short - stopped devices such as Jiangsu Huachang had resumed operation, and the new production capacity was gradually being released, with the supply continuing to show an increasing trend. The demand side remained weak, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. Only a few enterprises made appropriate inventory - building before the festival, and the overall wait - and - see sentiment was strong, with limited order growth. Overall, the current supply - demand structure of the soda - ash market was relatively loose, downstream purchasing was cautious, and the price lacked upward - driving force. The market was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and steadily in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1250 yuan/ton [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - long term, policies support the capital market, and the strategy for the stock index is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs observation, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. - For precious metals, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude due to multiple factors [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, although there are short - term pressures, some metals may stabilize in the future [16][19]. - For black building materials, the market is in a bottom - game stage with short - term range - bound fluctuations [34]. - For energy chemicals, different strategies such as taking profit on rallies, short - selling, etc. are proposed for different products [61][65]. - For agricultural products, different strategies are given according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as short - selling on rebounds, waiting for callbacks to buy, etc. [84][92] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, China's January 2026 manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 ppts from the previous month, and precious metals tumbled [2]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips in the long - run as policies support the capital market, but pay attention to short - term market rhythms [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts had different price changes on Friday. The government emphasized the economic work in 2026, and the 2025 national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% compared to 2024 [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum's sustainability is uncertain, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the impact of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices plunged due to Warsh's nomination and other factors. The short - term dollar is expected to remain strong, and emerging markets may face capital outflows and currency depreciation [9]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude. The reference range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 950 - 1160 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 18000 - 22450 yuan/kilogram [13]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by geopolitical and Fed news, the copper price fell on Friday. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic inventory increased [15]. - **Strategy**: Although there are short - term pressure factors, the copper price is expected to stabilize gradually. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 102000 - 106000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12600 - 13500 dollars/ton [16]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fell on Friday. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased [17]. - **Strategy**: If the precious - metal volatility decreases and domestic inventory performs better than the seasonality, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24300 - 25000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3080 - 3180 dollars/ton [19]. Other Non - ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: The zinc price followed the sector. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd [20]. - **Lead**: The lead industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd [21]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price has a large short - term decline risk. It is recommended to sell on rallies. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 12.0 - 15.0 million yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 1.6 - 1.8 million dollars/ton [22]. - **Tin**: The tin price may have a large short - term correction risk. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370000 - 430000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47000 - 51000 dollars/ton [24]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The lithium price has accelerated its decline. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium main contract is 136000 - 158000 yuan/ton [26]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price is expected to decline in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2700 - 2950 yuan/ton [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: Maintain a bullish view. It is recommended to lightly build long positions around 14000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13800 - 14700 yuan/ton [30]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The short - term price is supported by supply - side disturbances [32]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased on Friday. The inventory of rebar is accumulating, while that of hot - rolled coil is slightly decreasing [34]. - **Strategy**: The black - building materials market is in a bottom - game stage with short - term range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory changes, plate - demand recovery, and "dual - carbon" policies [34]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract price fell on Friday. The port inventory is at a high level, and the steel - mill inventory is increasing [35]. - **Strategy**: The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to steel - mill restocking and iron - water production rhythms [36]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated on January 30th. The coking - coal price is in a rebound cycle, and the coke price is approaching a long - term downward trend line [37]. - **Strategy**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to market - sentiment fluctuations [41]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass price increased on Friday, and the inventory decreased. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract is 1025 - 1125 yuan/ton [42][43]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash price increased on Friday, and the inventory increased. The market is expected to have a weak and stable fluctuation in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1250 yuan/ton [44][46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased on January 30th. The prices of both are in an oscillatory state [47]. - **Strategy**: The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Pay attention to manganese - ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial - silicon price fell on Friday. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the implementation of the large - factory production - reduction plan [51][52]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon price fell on Friday. The supply is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure. Pay attention to terminal - demand feedback and policy adjustments [53][54]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber market has large price fluctuations. The long and short sides have different views. The tire - enterprise开工率 has different changes, and the inventory is increasing [56][57]. - **Strategy**: Trade according to the short - term disk, set stop - losses, and consider building positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling the RU2609 contract [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude - oil main contract price increased, and the inventories of some refined oils changed. The gasoline inventory increased, while the diesel and fuel - oil inventories decreased [59]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [61]. Other Energy Chemicals - **Methanol**: The current price has priced in most of the geopolitical premium, and the upside space is under pressure [63]. - **Urea**: The import window is opened, and the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [65]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The pure - benzene price increased, and the styrene price decreased. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is recommended to gradually take profit [66][68]. - **PVC**: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to changes in production capacity and开工率 [69][70]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene - glycol market has a high load and high inventory. The supply - demand situation needs to be improved through production reduction [71][72]. - **PTA**: The PTA market is in the Spring - Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Pay attention to the risk of processing - fee correction and mid - term long - position opportunities [73][74]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and pay attention to long - position opportunities following the crude - oil price [75][76]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The PE futures price fell. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season [77][79]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The PP futures price fell. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is seasonally fluctuating. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [80][81]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mainly increased over the weekend. The supply is large in the short - term, and the demand is relatively stable [83]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support level [84]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price generally decreased over the weekend. The supply is normal, and the demand is weak [85]. - **Strategy**: The near - month contract may oscillate weakly, and the far - month contract may continue to correct its valuation. It is recommended to short - sell [86]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein - meal futures price fell on Friday. The domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories decreased. The overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season [87][89]. - **Strategy**: The protein - meal price may be bottoming out [89]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil - and - fat futures price fell on Friday. The Malaysian palm - oil production decreased in January, and the domestic three - major oil inventories decreased [91][92]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback and then try to go long [92]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar futures price fluctuated on Friday. The Brazilian and Indian sugar productions had different changes, and China's sugar imports increased [93]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern - hemisphere harvest in February. Temporarily wait and see in the domestic market [94]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton futures price fell on Friday. The spinning - mill开机率 decreased, and the global cotton production and consumption have different changes [96][97]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price has room to rise in the long - term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [98].

报告要点： 上周五，凯文沃什被特朗普宣布提名为新任美联储主席。在新任联储主席候选人（包括哈 塞特、沃勒、里德尔）中，沃什的货币政策表态偏鹰派，且反对美联储无序扩张资产负债表透 支信用。消息公布后，市场对于美元信用受挫和联储后续大幅降息的预期有所缓和，金银价格 出现大幅下跌。 专题报告 2026-02-02 蒋文斌 宏观金融组 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 贵金属：沃什被提名为联储主席，金银价格受挫 贵金属研究 一、凯文沃什被提名为联储主席令金银价格重挫 特朗普宣布"温和鹰派"凯文沃什为新任美联储主席提名人选，宽松货币政策预期受到 重挫，是金银价格在周五出现大幅下跌的主要原因：特朗普于周五宣布正式提名前美联储理事 凯文沃什为新任联储主席。在沃什前一联储理事任期中，他主张减少货币政策对于市场的干预， 呈现温和偏鹰派的表态。在利率和资产负债表操作方面，沃什反对进行长期的量化宽松和零利 率政策，并批评美联储的资产负债表扩张大幅透支央行信用。在联储政策目标方面，他强调要 坚守 2%的通胀目标。而在联储的职能权限方面，他批评美联储" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On February 2, 2026, influenced by Trump's nomination of Warsh as the next Fed Chair on January 30 and the hawkish statements of multiple voting members, the market adopted a hawkish outlook. Combined with multiple negative factors such as the exemption of silver tariffs and the loosening of internal and external supply - demand patterns, gold and silver futures and spot prices tumbled, breaking the previous strong pattern of gold and silver driven by the weakening of the US dollar's credit. In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong supported by liquidity tightening from balance - sheet reduction and the relative resilience of the US economy, but in the long - run, the long - term logic of the weakening of the US dollar's credit has not fundamentally reversed, and the risk of exchange - rate fluctuations will increase. Emerging markets will face the dual pressures of capital outflows and currency depreciation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract being 950 - 1160 yuan/gram and that for the main Shanghai silver contract being 18000 - 22450 yuan/kilogram [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Quotes and Information - **Precious Metal Prices**: Shanghai gold dropped 7.07% to 1079.2 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 11.13% to 24832.00 yuan/gram. COMEX gold was reported at 4749.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 78.53 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 97.12 [2] - **Policy News**: On January 30, Trump nominated Warsh, a former Fed governor, as the next Fed Chair. Warsh showed a dovish stance during the campaign but may return to a hawkish stance in the medium - to - long - term. After the nomination, Fed voting members Bostic, Bowman, and Musalem made hawkish statements, which pushed up the market's hawkish expectations and led to a plunge in gold and silver prices. The decline in silver prices was also affected by tariff exemptions and changes in spot inventory. The Trump administration exempted key metals including silver from tariffs in mid - January, and the continuous outflow of CME silver inventory alleviated the shortage of overseas silver spot, while the short - term investment demand in the domestic market eased, putting pressure on silver prices [2][3] 3.2. Strategy Views - **Market Analysis**: The market's hawkish expectations, combined with multiple negative factors for silver, led to a collective decline in gold and silver prices. The short - term strength of the US dollar is supported by balance - sheet reduction and the relative resilience of the US economy, but in the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar's credit remains a concern. Emerging markets will face capital outflows and currency depreciation pressures [4] - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 950 - 1160 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 18000 - 22450 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.3. Data Tables and Graphs - **Data Tables**: The table presents detailed data on gold and silver, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and precipitation funds in different markets (COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc.) on January 30, 2026, and January 29, 2026, along with daily changes, daily percentage changes, and historical quantiles over the past year [7] - **Graphs**: There are multiple graphs showing the relationships between precious metal prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, and open interests, as well as the near - far month structures and internal - external price differences of gold and silver [9][12][17][22][23][27][29][40][47][52][54][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For sugar, wait until the northern hemisphere starts to finish squeezing in February and the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, then the international sugar price may rebound. Domestically, as the supply of imported sugar gradually decreases and the sugar price falls to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive macro - economic expectations, the cotton price still has room to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9]. - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the rapeseed meal price rebounded. The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased on a weekly basis, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [13]. - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, the oil price rose significantly yesterday. The domestic inventory of the three major oils has been decreasing on a weekly basis. Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17]. - For eggs, the spot price is about to experience seasonal price increases, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contract may fluctuate weakly, while the far - end contract may continue to correct its valuation, so maintain a short - selling strategy [19]. - For pigs, the basic supply is large and the live - animal inventory is accumulating. The spot and near - term expectations are pessimistic, so maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. The far - end production capacity decline has been revised down, but there are still expectations of high fat - to - standard price differences, seasonal support, and recovery in consumer demand, so pay attention to the downside support after the price follows the decline [22]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5248 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. The offer price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5290 - 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - **Industry Data**: In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,670 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 16,183 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Industry Data**: As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The January forecast for US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a decrease of 194,900 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China that week was 8800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year [7][8]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the protein meal futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2767 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 1.25% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2287 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton or 1.63% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was reported at 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was reported at 2490 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. - **Industry Data**: From January 15 to January 22, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.85 million tons. Among them, the export of soybeans to China that week was 230,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.65 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, a 0.39 - percentage - point increase from December and a 0.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons from the previous year; the January forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons from the previous year; the January forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons from the previous year. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly revised down by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [12]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the oils and fats futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8282 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9240 yuan/ton, down 222 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9380 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9260 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - **Industry Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 20, 2026, decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample inventory of the three major oils slightly decreased by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year. India's total vegetable oil imports in December 2025 were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November [15][16]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices generally fell, with some areas experiencing relatively large declines. The price in Heishan remained at 3.8 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao dropped 0.2 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui dropped 0.23 yuan to 3.84 yuan/jin. The market supply was normal, the supply of small eggs was slightly tight, the inventory was not large, the downstream demand was limited, the wholesale market sales slowed down, and the purchasing intention of traders weakened. Egg prices may continue to fall this week [18]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mainly rose, with some areas being weak. The average price in Henan rose 0.04 yuan to 12.52 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.16 yuan to 11.76 yuan/kg. At the beginning of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farmers slowed down, the slaughter volume decreased, the downstream demand was relatively stable, the procurement difficulty increased, and the pig price mainly rose under the situation of supply less than demand. The supply pressure in a few southern regions was relatively large, and the pig price was stable. It is expected that the pig price will be mainly strong today [21].

陈张滢（黑色建材组） 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 商品市场情绪短期受到压制，双焦 盘面预计继续呈现震荡走势 双焦周报 2026/01/31 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 持仓及品种比价 图1： 焦煤加权指数价格走势（元/吨，日线） 资料来源：文华财经，五矿期货研究中心 01 周度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 上周，焦煤盘面价格延续宽幅震荡的走势，周度涨幅0.5元/吨或+0.04%（针对加权指数，下同）。驱动方面，本周最突出的是商品市场的剧 烈波动，包括金银持续创下新高后的高位跳水，而触发这一切的根源或在于新任命的美联储主席凯文·沃什所引发的市场对于分母端边际转 紧的预期。此外，此前强势的碳酸锂也出现大幅回落，整体压制着商品整体情绪。但黑色板块方面，房地产"三道红线"的放松、万科债务 问题顺利展期等使其短期具有自身在情绪上的呵护。技术形态角度，焦煤盘面仍处于日线级别的反弹周期中，下方关注1100元/吨附近支撑， 上方继续关注1260元/吨附近压力位置（2 ...

鹰派沃什被提名为新任联 储主席，金银价格受挫 贵金属周报 2026/01/31 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 ◆ 本周行情回顾：贵金属价格在沃什被宣布为新任联储主席人选后受到重挫，1月26日至1月30日，COMEX黄金主力合约价格下跌2.11%至 4907.5美元/盎司，COMEX白银主力合约价格下跌18.5%至85.25美元/盎司。 ◆ 特朗普宣布"温和鹰派"凯文沃什为新任美联储主席提名人选，宽松货币政策预期受到重挫，是金银价格在周五出现大幅下跌的主要原因： 特朗普于周五宣布正式提名前美联储理事凯文沃什为新任联储主席。在沃什前一联储理事任期中，他主张减少货币政策对于市场的干预， 呈现温和偏鹰派的表态。在利率和资产负债表操作方面，沃什反对进行长期的量化宽松和零利率政策，并批评美联储的资产负债表扩张大 幅透支央行信用。在联储政 ...