1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index, large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks are showing a market trend of bullish upward movement with high-level fluctuations [2] - The implied volatility of financial options is gradually rising and fluctuating at a relatively high level compared to the mean [2] - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish buyer strategy and a bull spread strategy for call options; for index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish seller strategy, a bull spread strategy for call options, and an arbitrage strategy between synthetic long futures with options and short futures [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,875.53, up 0.46% with a trading volume of 120.83 billion yuan [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,828.95, up 1.05% with a trading volume of 154.16 billion yuan [3] - The SSE 50 Index closed at 2,981.20, up 0.16% with a trading volume of 19.53 billion yuan [3] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,523.71, up 0.60% with a trading volume of 77.04 billion yuan [3] - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,110.29, up 0.94% with a trading volume of 53.62 billion yuan [3] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,501.15, up 0.84% with a trading volume of 56.46 billion yuan [3] 3.2 Option Underlying ETF Market Overview - The SSE 50 ETF closed at 3.113, up 0.03% with a trading volume of 9.4711 million shares and a turnover of 2.944 billion yuan [4] - The SSE 300 ETF closed at 4.616, up 0.33% with a trading volume of 11.9399 million shares and a turnover of 5.495 billion yuan [4] - The SSE 500 ETF closed at 7.206, up 0.91% with a trading volume of 1.8308 million shares and a turnover of 1.313 billion yuan [4] - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.431, up 1.35% with a trading volume of 44.3074 million shares and a turnover of 6.286 billion yuan [4] - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.398, up 1.23% with a trading volume of 12.4336 million shares and a turnover of 1.726 billion yuan [4] - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.762, up 0.34% with a trading volume of 1.7114 million shares and a turnover of 0.812 billion yuan [4] - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.875, up 0.59% with a trading volume of 0.9851 million shares and a turnover of 0.282 billion yuan [4] - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 3.396, up 0.92% with a trading volume of 0.6658 million shares and a turnover of 0.224 billion yuan [4] - The ChiNext ETF closed at 2.927, up 2.16% with a trading volume of 20.641 million shares and a turnover of 5.979 billion yuan [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.80 (up 0.14) and the open interest PCR was 0.94 (down 0.01) [5] - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.97 (up 0.16) and the open interest PCR was 1.28 (up 0.04) [5] - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.96 (down 0.01) and the open interest PCR was 1.32 (down 0.01) [5] - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.65 (up 0.03) and the open interest PCR was 1.01 (up 0.03) [5] - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.74 (up 0.06) and the open interest PCR was 0.96 (up 0.02) [5] - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.95 (down 0.21) and the open interest PCR was 1.10 (unchanged) [5] - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the volume PCR was 1.07 (up 0.01) and the open interest PCR was 0.84 (down 0.01) [5] - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the volume PCR was 2.02 (up 0.67) and the open interest PCR was 1.15 (up 0.03) [5] - For the ChiNext ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.71 (up 0.08) and the open interest PCR was 1.43 (up 0.08) [5] - For the SSE 50 index option, the volume PCR was 0.50 (up 0.18) and the open interest PCR was 0.66 (up 0.02) [5] - For the CSI 300 index option, the volume PCR was 0.57 (up 0.07) and the open interest PCR was 0.87 (up 0.01) [5] - For the CSI 1000 index option, the volume PCR was 0.78 (up 0.02) and the open interest PCR was 1.13 (up 0.02) [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - For the SSE 50 ETF, the pressure level was 3.20 and the support level was 3.10 [7] - For the SSE 300 ETF, the pressure level was 4.60 and the support level was 4.40 [7] - For the SSE 500 ETF, the pressure level was 7.00 and the support level was 6.75 [7] - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, the pressure level was 1.40 and the support level was 1.35 [7] - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, the pressure level was 1.55 and the support level was 1.35 [7] - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF, the pressure level was 4.80 and the support level was 4.70 [7] - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF, the pressure level was 2.85 and the support level was 2.80 [7] - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF, the pressure level was 3.70 and the support level was 3.30 [7] - For the ChiNext ETF, the pressure level was 2.95 and the support level was 2.60 [7] - For the SSE 50 index, the pressure level was 3,000 and the support level was 2,850 [7] - For the CSI 300 index, the pressure level was 4,500 and the support level was 4,250 [7] - For the CSI 1000 index, the pressure level was 7,500 and the support level was 7,000 [7] 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 20.53%, the weighted implied volatility was 21.38% (down 2.33%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 7.71% [9] - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 21.15%, the weighted implied volatility was 20.95% (down 2.37%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 6.39% [9] - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 25.16%, the weighted implied volatility was 25.01% (down 1.91%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 7.88% [9] - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 51.00%, the weighted implied volatility was 51.63% (down 6.46%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 28.03% [9] - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 51.18%, the weighted implied volatility was 52.10% (down 6.54%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 27.26% [9] - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 21.93%, the weighted implied volatility was 23.97% (down 3.41%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 8.02% [9] - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 25.41%, the weighted implied volatility was 30.37% (down 1.21%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 13.45% [9] - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 27.35%, the weighted implied volatility was 34.57% (down 0.22%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 13.95% [9] - For the ChiNext ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 38.25%, the weighted implied volatility was 38.47% (down 4.25%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 14.12% [9] - For the SSE 50 index option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 22.09%, the weighted implied volatility was 21.67% (down 1.33%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 6.41% [9] - For the CSI 300 index option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 21.19%, the weighted implied volatility was 20.84% (down 2.50%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 6.20% [9] - For the CSI 1000 index option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 26.01%, the weighted implied volatility was 25.73% (down 1.58%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility was 5.83% [9] 3.6 Strategy and Recommendations - **Financial Stocks Sector (SSE 50 ETF, SSE 50)**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread strategy for call options; volatility strategy - construct a bullish seller strategy; spot long covered call strategy - hold SSE 50 ETF and sell call options [12] - **Large-cap Blue-chip Stocks Sector (SSE 300 ETF, Shenzhen 300 ETF, CSI 300)**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread strategy for call options; volatility strategy - construct a short volatility strategy by selling call and put options; spot long covered call strategy - hold relevant ETFs and sell call options [12] - **Large and Medium-sized Stocks Sector (Shenzhen 100 ETF)**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread strategy for call options; volatility strategy - construct a short volatility strategy by selling call and put options; spot long covered call strategy - hold Shenzhen 100 ETF and sell call options [13] - **Small and Medium-cap Stocks Sector (SSE 500 ETF, Shenzhen 500 ETF, CSI 1000)**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread strategy for call options; volatility strategy - for CSI 1000, construct a short volatility strategy; spot long covered call strategy - hold relevant ETFs and sell call options [13][15] - **ChiNext Sector (ChiNext ETF, Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF)**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread strategy for call options; volatility strategy - none; spot long covered call strategy - hold relevant ETFs and sell call options [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by global supply pressure, with USDA's reduction in planting area having short - term positive effects on CBOT soybeans, but the upward momentum of soybean import costs is uncertain. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be range - bound [2][4]. - The palm oil export in Malaysia increased in August, and its production had different trends in different periods. The overall situation of the oil market is complex, with both positive and negative factors, and palm oil is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term [6][9]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to decline in the long - term, and the downward space depends on the Brazilian production situation [12]. - The cotton market has the possibility of marginal improvement in fundamentals, and short - term cotton prices may continue to oscillate at high levels [15]. - The egg market has high inventory and flat demand, and the egg price is expected to first decline slightly and then rise slightly this week. The market needs more forced culling for an upward trend [18][19]. - The pig price increased over the weekend due to supply reduction and demand boost. The 9 - month supply may be weak, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a low - level rebound in the futures market [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 Important Information - The US soybean market is in a state of shock, and the domestic soybean meal market is relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. The weekend domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly. The US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, and the soybean import cost is weakly stable [2]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the cost performance of soybeans after stabilization. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to enter the destocking phase in September, supporting the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to try long at the low end of the cost range and be cautious at the high end [4]. Oils Important Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in August, and its production had different trends in different periods. The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is 19.9 million tons [6]. Trading Strategy - The oil market is affected by both positive and negative factors. Palm oil is expected to be oscillating strongly before the inventory accumulates sufficiently and the demand feedback is negative [9]. Sugar Important Information - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated on Friday, and the spot price decreased slightly. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, while the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased [11]. Trading Strategy - The domestic sugar market is expected to decline in the long - term, and the downward space depends on the Brazilian production situation [12]. Cotton Important Information - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose and then fell on Friday. The spot price decreased slightly. The spinning mill's operating rate increased slightly, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased [14]. Trading Strategy - Considering the approaching consumption season and low inventory, the cotton market has the possibility of marginal improvement, and short - term cotton prices may continue to oscillate at high levels [15]. Eggs Spot Information - The domestic egg price was mainly stable over the weekend, with partial increases. The inventory is still high, and cold - storage eggs entering the market increase the pressure. The demand is flat, but there is room for improvement at the low level [17]. Trading Strategy - The market pessimism intensifies, and the supply - side improvement is limited. The demand can only support the price, and the market needs more forced culling for an upward trend [19]. Pigs Spot Information - The domestic pig price increased over the weekend due to supply reduction and demand boost, and it is expected to continue rising today [21]. Trading Strategy - The futures market's expectation for the future is not high. The 9 - month supply may be weak, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a low - level rebound [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of metal options, including market conditions, option factors, and corresponding strategies for different metal sectors such as non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. It suggests specific option strategies based on the characteristics of each metal's market trends and option factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts. For example, the latest price of copper futures (CU2510) is 79,680, with a price increase of 460 and a trading volume of 7.11 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the open interest PCR of copper options is 0.80, indicating certain pressure above the Shanghai copper price [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each metal option are determined from the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of copper is 82,000, and the support level is 75,000 [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each metal option is analyzed, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at-the-money implied volatility of copper options is 9.38% [6]. 3.3 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: Construct a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [8]. - **Aluminum/Alumina Options**: Build a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc/Lead Options**: Adopt a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel Options**: Implement a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy [10]. - **Tin Options**: Use a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: Employ a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long + put option + call option strategy [11]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver Options**: Construct a short - neutral volatility option seller portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - **Rebar Options**: Adopt a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore Options**: Implement a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloy Options**: Use a short - volatility strategy [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Options**: Employ a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass Options**: Adopt a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot long collar strategy [15].

专题报告 2025-09-01 铜：美联储降息概率较大，价格支撑强 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 美国对铜产品征收关税以来，全球铜价总体震荡运行，沪铜在 78000-80000 元/吨的区间内波 动，伦铜 3 个月期合约在 9600-9900 美元/吨区间内波动，呈现上有顶、下有底的格局。 美联储主席在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上释放鸽派观点，市场预期 9 月议息会议降息概率较大，由 于当前美国经济仍不弱，如果美联储如预期降息稍前置，短期内对主要资产价格和商品情绪都 将有所提振。从铜的供需看，原料端铜矿和废料供应较为紧张，叠加消费旺季临近，铜价支撑 较强，而压力来自美国关税落地后净进口增加预期，不过原料端紧张将减轻这种压力。总体而 言，未来一段时间如果全球贸易局势没有进一步恶化，铜价在宏观和供需支持下有望震荡向上。 有色金属研究 | 铜 铜：美联储降息概率较大，价格支撑强 1、近期铜价高位震荡 美国对铜产品征收关税以来，全球铜价总体震荡运行，沪铜在 78000-80000 元/吨的区间内波 动，伦铜 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the stock index market, although there are short - term fluctuations after continuous rises, the long - term direction is still favorable. In the bond market, interest rates may have downward space in the long run, but the short - term is in a volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, the Fed's potential continuous interest rate cuts are expected to drive up precious metal prices, especially silver. In the non - ferrous metals market, most metals are expected to have different degrees of price support, while zinc shows an oversupply situation. In the black building materials market, the demand for steel products is weak, and the prices are under pressure, while the price of iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile. In the energy and chemical market, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. In the agricultural products market, different products also present different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [3][5][7]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI and comprehensive PMI also increased. The policy shows care for the capital market. After recent continuous rises, the market may have increased short - term fluctuations, but the long - term is still a buying - on - dips strategy [2][3]. Treasury Bonds - The performance of treasury bond contracts on Friday showed small increases. The manufacturing PMI in August improved but was still below the boom - bust line. The sales of real estate enterprises from January to August decreased year - on - year. The central bank conducted large - scale reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 4217 billion yuan. In the long run, interest rates may have downward space, but the short - term is in a volatile pattern [4][5]. Precious Metals - The prices of domestic gold and silver futures rose, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver fell. Due to the personnel changes in the Fed and the marginal weakening of the US labor market, the Fed is expected to enter an interest - rate - cut cycle, which is a significant positive factor for precious metal prices, especially silver, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline. It is recommended to buy silver on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - The copper price showed a volatile upward trend. The inventory of the three major exchanges increased, and the supply of scrap copper was tight. The开工 rate of copper rod enterprises declined. With the approach of the peak season and the support of fundamentals, the copper price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [9]. Aluminum - The aluminum price rebounded on Friday. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is relatively low, and the demand has improved marginally. With the Fed's dovish signal and the expectation of interest rate cuts in September, the aluminum price has strong support. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes [10]. Zinc - The zinc price showed a weak trend. The zinc concentrate is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the zinc ingot social inventory is rapidly accumulating. The downstream demand is weak. Although the Fed's interest rate cut expectation is high, the zinc price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern in the short term [11]. Lead - The lead price declined slightly. The lead concentrate inventory decreased marginally, and the processing fee was in a downward trend. The supply of lead ingots decreased marginally. With the high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the lead price is expected to be strong [12]. Nickel - The price of nickel ore is expected to remain stable. The price of nickel iron is expected to be stable and strong, and the price of intermediate products is expected to be strong. In the short term, the macro - environment is positive, and the nickel price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [13][14]. Tin - The domestic tin price rose sharply last week due to the shortage of tin ore supply. The supply of tin is expected to decrease significantly in September, while the demand is in the off - season. The tin price is expected to be strong and volatile [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate showed a weak adjustment. With the approach of the peak season in the lithium - battery industry, the supply - demand relationship is gradually repairing, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply and industrial news [17]. Alumina - The price of alumina decreased. The supply of domestic and overseas ore is disturbed, and the macro - sentiment is improving. The short - term downward space of the alumina price is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased slightly. The short - term downstream demand is insufficient, but with the approach of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase. The inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly [19][20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of casting aluminum alloy was stable. The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the inventory is increasing. With the support of cost and the increase in market activity, the price is expected to be high in the short term [21]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The overall demand for steel products is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the profit of steel mills is shrinking. If the demand cannot improve effectively, the price may continue to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [23][24]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased slightly. The overseas iron ore shipping is stable, the demand for iron ore decreased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - sentiment in the long term. The soda ash price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the price center is expected to rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [27][28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon continued to decline. The supply of manganese silicon is increasing, and the demand is expected to be weak in the future. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon has no obvious contradiction. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weakly volatile, with over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand. The polysilicon price is in the pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", and the price is expected to fluctuate [33][34][36]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - The rubber price is expected to be strong in the short term. The rainy weather in Thailand may drive up the price. The mid - term strategy is a long - position strategy. It is recommended to buy on dips and close positions quickly [38][42]. Crude Oil - The price of crude oil showed a mixed trend. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is undervalued. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for crude oil but not to chase the high price [43]. Methanol - The price of methanol decreased. The domestic supply is increasing, the port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. Urea - The price of urea decreased. The domestic supply decreased due to the increase in maintenance devices, and the demand is mainly concentrated in exports. It is recommended to buy on dips [46]. Styrene - The price of styrene decreased. The cost - end supply is abundant, the supply is increasing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The long - term price is expected to rebound [47]. PVC - The price of PVC decreased. The domestic supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [49]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased slightly. The supply is still in excess, and the mid - term inventory is expected to accumulate. The short - term price is supported by less arrivals and policy sentiment, but the mid - term valuation may decline [50]. PTA - The price of PTA decreased. The supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and the demand improved. It is recommended to buy on dips following PX [51]. p - Xylene - The price of p - xylene decreased. The PX load is high, the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory is expected to be low. It is recommended to buy on dips following crude oil [52]. Polyethylene PE - The price of polyethylene decreased. The cost - end has support, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The price is expected to be volatile and upward [53][54]. Polypropylene PP - The price of polypropylene decreased. The supply pressure is large, the demand is recovering seasonally, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to buy the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - The pig price rose over the weekend. The supply in September may be weak, but the demand and other factors have potential support for the pig price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the low - level rebound of the disk [57]. Eggs - The egg price was stable over the weekend with partial increases. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is flat. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and use the backwardation strategy [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of soybean meal was weak last week and increased slightly over the weekend. The supply of global protein raw materials is in excess, and the upward momentum of soybean import cost needs to be tested. The soybean meal price is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the low - end of the cost range [59][60]. Oils and Fats - The price of oils and fats decreased. The fundamentals support the price center of oils and fats. The palm oil price is expected to be volatile and strong before the full accumulation of inventory and the negative feedback of demand [61][63]. Sugar - The price of sugar was volatile. The domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and the valuation is high. The overall view is bearish, and the downward space depends on the international sugar price [64][65]. Cotton - The price of cotton was volatile. Although the downstream consumption is average, with the approach of the peak season and the low inventory, the cotton price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, which may drive non - ferrous metal varieties including nickel to strengthen. Each metal has different supply - demand situations, and price trends vary accordingly [1][3][5][7][8][10][11][14][16][18][20] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.97% last week, and LME copper rose 0.99% to $9906/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 million tons, with SHFE inventory decreasing by 0.2 to 8.0 million tons, LME inventory increasing by 0.3 to 15.9 million tons, and COMEX inventory increasing by 0.6 to 25.2 million tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [1] - **Market situation**: The spot import window remained open, the premium of Yangshan copper increased. The LME market was at a discount, and the domestic spot had a higher premium. The supply of scrap copper was tight, and the operating rates of refined copper rod and cable enterprises declined [1] - **Price forecast**: The price is expected to be volatile and strong, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 78600 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9780 - 10050/ton [1] Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.46% to $2619/ton on Friday, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20725 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the three domestic regions decreased by 0.55 million tons to 45.7 million tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in Foshan and Wuxi increased by 0.15 million tons to 9.5 million tons [3] - **Market situation**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic spot was at a discount. The downstream maintained rigid demand procurement [3] - **Price forecast**: The price support is strong. If the inventory inflection point appears, the price will have stronger upward momentum. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20600 - 20850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2590 - 2650/ton [3] Lead - **Price**: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.13% to 16883 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME lead 3S fell $2 to $1990/ton [5] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 6.52 million tons [5] - **Market situation**: The lead concentrate inventory decreased, the processing fee continued to decline. The production of primary smelters was high, and the finished product inventory increased. The raw materials of secondary smelters were in short supply, and some enterprises had maintenance. The downstream operating rate decreased slightly [5] - **Price forecast**: The price is expected to be strong due to the high expectation of Fed rate cuts and the narrowing supply [5] Zinc - **Price**: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16% to 22140 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME zinc 3S rose $19.5 to $2796.5/ton [7] - **Inventory**: The zinc concentrate entered the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase rapidly to 14.45 million tons [7] - **Market situation**: The supply of zinc concentrate increased, the smelting output continued to rise, and the downstream operating rate did not improve significantly [7] - **Price forecast**: There is a divergence between the macro background and the industrial situation. The short - term decline space is limited, showing a low - level oscillation pattern [7] Tin - **Price**: The domestic tin price soared last week [8] - **Supply**: The supply of tin ore was in short supply. A large - scale tin smelter in Yunnan planned to have maintenance in September, and Indonesia's export was affected. The production of refined tin in September is expected to decline by 29.89% [8] - **Demand**: It was in the consumption off - season, and the traditional consumption areas were weak. Although AI computing power increased some demand, it had limited impact on the overall demand [8] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of tin ingots increased slightly to 10002 tons [8] - **Price forecast**: The price is expected to be strong and oscillating [8] Nickel - **Nickel ore**: The price remained stable. The supply in Indonesia was relatively sufficient, and the iron mills' acceptance of the price was okay [10] - **Nickel iron**: The supply increase was limited due to the loss of domestic iron mills. The demand was supported by the expected increase in stainless steel production in August and September [10] - **Intermediate products**: The supply was tight, and the cost increased. The price is expected to be strong [10] - **Price forecast**: The short - term macro atmosphere is positive. The price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14500 - 16500/ton [11][12] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index fell 0.32% on Friday and 4.05% last week. The LC2511 contract price fell 1.23% on Friday and 2.25% last week [14] - **Market situation**: The market sentiment cooled down, and the supply - demand relationship was slowly repaired. The inventory decreased due to the decline in lithium mica supply [14] - **Price forecast**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's main contract is expected to operate in the range of 74500 - 79900 yuan/ton [14] Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 0.95% to 3031 yuan/ton on August 29 [16] - **Market situation**: The supply of ore was disturbed, and the macro sentiment improved [16] - **Price forecast**: The short - term downward space is limited, and the oversupply situation cannot support continuous price rebound. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton [16] Stainless Steel - **Price**: The main contract closed at 12815 yuan/ton on Friday, down 0.27% [18] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 0.81% to 108.30 million tons, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 0.63% to 65.45 million tons [18] - **Market situation**: The downstream demand was insufficient, and the trading was mainly for on - demand replenishment. The demand is expected to pick up in the peak season [18] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract remained at 20350 yuan/ton [20] - **Inventory**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three domestic regions increased by 0.01 to 3.30 million tons [20] - **Market situation**: It was transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, the cost support was strong, and the market activity tended to increase [20] - **Price forecast**: The price may run at a high level [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a bullish upward and high - level oscillating market trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all presenting such characteristics [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options gradually rises and fluctuates at a relatively high level above the mean [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish buyer strategy and a call option bull spread combination strategy; for stock index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish seller strategy, a call option bull spread combination strategy, and an arbitrage strategy of synthetic long futures and short futures [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,857.93, up 0.37% with a trading volume of 122.17 billion yuan and a volume change of - 43.5 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,696.15, up 0.99% with a trading volume of 157.66 billion yuan and a volume change of - 129 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2,976.47, up 0.53% with a trading volume of 22.65 billion yuan and a volume change of 31.3 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,496.76, up 0.74% with a trading volume of 83.12 billion yuan and a volume change of 91.8 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,043.94, up 0.47% with a trading volume of 52.3 billion yuan and a volume change of - 40.6 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,438.68, down 0.11% with a trading volume of 56.51 billion yuan and a volume change of - 66.7 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option - related ETF Market Overview - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading volume changes of various option - related ETFs are presented, such as the Shanghai 50 ETF closing at 3.112, up 0.55% with a trading volume of 12.4274 million shares and a volume change of 12.3123 million shares [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The volume, volume change, position, position change, volume PCR, and position PCR of different option varieties are provided, for example, the Shanghai 50 ETF option has a volume PCR of 0.66 (down 0.14) and a position PCR of 0.95 (up 0.02) [6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of different option varieties are given, like the Shanghai 50 ETF has a pressure point of 3.20 and a support point of 3.00 [8]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different option varieties are shown, including the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, etc. For instance, the Shanghai 50 ETF option has an at - the - money implied volatility of 22.48% and a weighted implied volatility of 23.72% (up 0.16%) [11]. 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions - The financial option sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. Different sectors and corresponding option varieties are recommended for different strategies [13]. - For each sector, specific option strategies are proposed based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, including directional strategies and volatility strategies. For example, in the financial stock sector, for the Shanghai 50 ETF, a call option bull spread combination strategy is recommended for directional trading [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. Oilseeds and oils, as well as agricultural by - products, are in a weak and volatile state, while soft commodities like sugar show slight fluctuations, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various agricultural product futures, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, eggs, etc [3]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different agricultural product options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of the underlying options are analyzed for various agricultural products [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility for different agricultural product options [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Agricultural Product Options 3.3.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Beans (Soybean 1, Soybean 2)**: The fundamental situation of soybeans shows changes in US soybean good - rate and Brazilian soybean premiums, costs, and crushing margins. The soybean market has a short - term consolidation pattern. Options strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean crushing volume and开机率 are expected to change. The soybean meal market is in a weak and volatile state. Strategies involve constructing a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals of oils show changes in production, exports, and inventories. The palm oil market is in a short - term bullish and then retracement pattern. Strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut market price has increased slightly, but the downstream follow - up is less than expected. The market is in a weak consolidation pattern. Strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the demand has increased. The market is in a weak consolidation pattern. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The egg supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak and bearish pattern. Strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the market is in a gradually warming - up pattern. Strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [12]. - **Red Dates**: The red date inventory has decreased, and the market is in a short - term retracement pattern. Strategies include constructing a neutral strangle option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The sugar inventory pressure is not significant, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The market is in a weak and bearish pattern. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to increase. The market is in a short - term weak pattern. Strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.3.4 Grains Options - **Corn, Starch**: The corn inventory in the northern port has decreased, and the new - crop supply is limited. The market is in a weak and bearish but rebounding pattern. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, such as SC2510 (crude oil) at a price of 484 with a 0.21% increase, PG2510 (liquefied petroleum gas) at 4,334 with a 0.73% decrease, etc. [4]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - The volume - open interest PCR data of different option varieties are given, which helps describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether a turning point occurs in the underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.76 with a - 0.05 change, and the open interest PCR is 0.65 with a 0.03 change [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices of the largest open interests of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlying are analyzed. For instance, the pressure level of crude oil is 600 and the support level is 415 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various option varieties are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility and its change, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 23, and the weighted implied volatility is 25.58 with a - 0.56 change [7]. 3.3 Strategies and Recommendations 3.3.1 Energy - Type Options (Crude Oil) - Fundamental aspect: OPEC shows a restrained attitude to support prices. US refinery demand declines due to reduced imports, and shale oil fluctuates normally. The overall fundamental situation is healthy, and the crack spread remains strong. Market trend: In June, it rose rapidly, then pulled back after reaching a high; since July, it has weakened and fluctuated within a range; in August, it first rose then fell, showing a short - term weak fluctuation. Option factors: Implied volatility remains around the average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a short - term weak and fluctuating market; the pressure level is 600 and the support level is 415. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [8]. 3.3.2 Energy - Type Options (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Fundamental aspect: Domestic supply is loose, with high - level and stable operation of major refineries, and high seasonal commodity volume. Import has declined slightly in the past two weeks, and port inventory remains high. Demand is low in summer, and chemical demand has declined slightly. Market trend: After a low - level range - bound fluctuation, it rose significantly and broke through the upper level, then pulled back after reaching a high in July, and accelerated the decline in August before rebounding and then being blocked. Option factors: Implied volatility has dropped significantly and returned to around the average level; the open interest PCR is around 0.60, indicating strong short - selling power; the pressure level is 5400 and the support level is 4200. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.3.3 Alcohol - Type Options (Methanol) - Fundamental aspect: Import arrivals have increased, and port inventory has accumulated to a high level. Demand from port MTO has improved, but overall downstream demand is weak. Market trend: After a sharp decline in July, it fluctuated significantly, and has been weakening since August. Option factors: Implied volatility has declined and fluctuates below the average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a short - term weak and fluctuating market; the pressure level is 2600 and the support level is 2250. Strategies: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish call spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.3.4 Alcohol - Type Options (Ethylene Glycol) - Fundamental aspect: Port inventory is 500,000 tons, with a de - stocking of 47,000 tons compared to the previous period; downstream factory inventory days are 13.2 days, a decrease of 0.3 days. In the short term, arrivals are low and departures are high, and port inventory is expected to continue to decline. Market trend: It first declined then rose in June, reached a high and then pulled back; in July, it fluctuated weakly at a low level and then rose before a rapid decline; in August, it continued to fluctuate weakly. Option factors: Implied volatility fluctuates below the average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling power; the pressure level is 4600 and the support level is 4400. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.3.5 Polyolefin - Type Options (Polypropylene) - Fundamental aspect: PE production enterprise inventory is 427,000 tons, with a de - stocking rate of - 14.92% compared to the previous period and a stocking rate of 0.40% compared to the same period last year; PP production enterprise inventory is 538,500 tons, with a de - stocking rate of - 5.91% compared to the previous period and a stocking rate of 9.07% compared to the same period last year. Market trend: The decline has narrowed since July, then it stabilized and fluctuated slightly before a rapid decline; in August, it maintained a weak and small - amplitude fluctuation. Option factors: Implied volatility has declined to a level slightly lower than the average; the open interest PCR is around 0.60, indicating a weak market; the pressure level is 7300 and the support level is 6800. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.3.6 Rubber Options - Fundamental aspect: The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 71.87%, a decrease of 7.81 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.97%, an increase of 7.01 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Market trend: It fluctuated weakly at a low level in June and then rebounded; since July, it has risen in the short term and then reached a high and pulled back; in August, it gradually recovered and then fluctuated within a range. Option factors: Implied volatility first rose rapidly and then declined to around the average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60; the pressure level has dropped significantly to 18000 and the support level is 15750. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.3.7 Polyester - Type Options (PTA) - Fundamental aspect: PTA's overall social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) is 2.2 million tons, with a de - stocking of 50,000 tons compared to the previous period. Downstream load is gradually increasing, and the number of maintenance in August has increased, with many unexpected maintenance events. Even with the commissioning of new plants, inventory will mainly decrease in the short term. Market trend: It first rose then fell in June, continued to rise and then declined rapidly; in July, it was weak and then rebounded; in August, it declined, then fluctuated slightly and then rebounded rapidly before being blocked. Option factors: Implied volatility fluctuates at a level slightly higher than the average; the open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a fluctuating market; the pressure level is 5000 and the support level is 4550. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.3.8 Alkali - Type Options (Caustic Soda) - Fundamental aspect: The average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above is 82.4%, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous week. Except for the increase in the operating rates in the northwest and southwest regions, other regions have declined. Market trend: It first rose then fell in July, and after a rapid decline in August, it gradually rebounded and showed a short - term bullish and high - level fluctuation. Option factors: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level; the open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a fluctuating market; the pressure level is 3000 and the support level is 2400. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot collar - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.3.9 Alkali - Type Options (Soda Ash) - Fundamental aspect: Last week, the soda ash factory inventory was 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 43,300 tons compared to the previous period; the delivery warehouse inventory was 500,700 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons. The total inventory of factory + delivery warehouse is 2.3682 million tons, a decrease of 38,900 tons compared to the previous period. Market trend: It fluctuated slightly in a narrow range in July and then rebounded; since August, it has continued to fluctuate weakly. Option factors: Implied volatility first rose rapidly and then dropped significantly, and currently still fluctuates at a relatively high level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling pressure; the pressure level is 1640 and the support level is 1180. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [13]. 3.3.10 Urea Options - Fundamental aspect: Port inventory is 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons compared to the previous period; enterprise inventory is 1.0858 million tons, an increase of 61,900 tons compared to the previous period, and is at a high level compared to the same period last year. Market trend: It fluctuated widely under the short - selling pressure line in July and then rose rapidly; in August, it continued to fluctuate widely. Option factors: Implied volatility fluctuates slightly around the historical average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling pressure; the pressure level is 1900 and the support level is 1700. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

美联储理事库克就解职一事提起诉讼，联储内部关键人物表态有所转变：特朗普签署文件，以 库克在金融事务中的不诚信为由对其理事职位进行罢免。库克随即表示特朗普无权对其进行解 雇，并对特朗普以及美联储提起诉讼。而这也是美联储成立以来总统首次对于成员理事进行解 雇的事件。同时，特朗普在内阁会议中表示心中已有人选来接替美联储理事库克。若特朗普对 于库克的解职行动成功，特朗普将在联储理事会中具备更大的影响力。目前来看，联储理事沃 勒、监管副主席鲍曼以及新任联储理事米兰均以特朗普的货币政策诉求为表态基准，库克的解 职将令当前七位常任票委中（主席鲍威尔、五位理事以及纽约联储主席威廉姆斯）具备四位"特 朗普"派系的人员，而这在明年鲍威尔任期结束后将升至五位，联储的货币政策决策以及地区 联储主席的人事任命均将明显受到理事会人员变动的影响。而当前另一位关键人物纽约联储主 席威廉姆斯的表态也转为中性偏鸽派，他在本周表示美国 GDP 增长已经放缓，且这一趋势将得 到延续。对于利率，他认为当前利率水平处于"适度限制"的状态，这意味着美联储可以降低 利率。 基于当前美联储人事变动以及关键人物的表态，结合美国劳动力市场整体而言的边际弱化，联 ...