Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is good, but the prices of finished steel products are oscillating. The demand for finished steel products is weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weakness of the market is becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material side is more stable than the finished products, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. [3] - The price of iron ore is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term. The impact of production restrictions on Tangshan steel mills on the weekly molten iron output is expected to be significant, and attention should be paid to the recovery of molten iron production after the end of the restrictions. [6] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be weak. For speculative trading, it is recommended to wait and see. The market is gradually shifting from trading based on expectations to trading based on fundamentals, and the prices of the black sector may continue to be under pressure in the future. [10][11] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, with the range between 8,100 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon is expected to be highly volatile, and it may continue to rise if there is continuous positive news. [15][16] - The price of glass is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it will fluctuate with the macro - sentiment. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the long term, but its upside space is limited. [18][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,298 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous trading day. [2] - **Market Situation**: The supply of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak overall, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. [3] Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 771.50 yuan/ton, up 0.72% (+5.50), with a position change of - 948 hands to 45.30 million hands. The weighted position was 75.97 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 45.42 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.56%. [5] - **Market Situation**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased, the daily average molten iron production decreased, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills decreased. [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On September 2, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.14% at 5,744 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.07% at 5,528 yuan/ton. [8] - **Market Situation**: The price of manganese silicon is expected to remain weak before mid - October, and the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions. For speculative trading, it is recommended to wait and see. [10][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8,470 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (-25). The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,875 yuan/ton, down 0.78% (-410). [14][15] - **Market Situation**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and the price of polysilicon is expected to be highly volatile. [15][16] Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1,130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased. The spot price of soda ash was 1,165 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. [18][19] - **Market Situation**: The price of glass is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and the price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term and its price center may gradually rise in the long term. [18][19]

农产品早报 2025-09-03 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 【重要资讯】 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二美豆下跌，市场担忧美豆需求，中美大豆贸易暂无新增信息。国内豆粕盘面小幅反弹，周二国内豆 粕现货小幅上涨 20 元/吨，华东基差 01-80 持平。上周国内豆粕、大豆均累库，折豆粕库存仍处高位， 去库仍需等待压榨量及到港量拐点，下游库存天数小幅上升 0.36 天至 8.87 天。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国 内压榨大豆 243 万吨，本周预计压榨 240 万吨。 杨泽元 美豆产区 9 月初预报降雨恢复，整体预计中性略少水平。巴西方面，升贴水回落后震荡反弹。总体来看， USDA 大幅调低种植面积，美豆产量环比下调 108 万吨 ...

农产品早报 2025-09-02 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一美豆休市，巴西升贴水上调，大豆进口成本上涨。国内豆粕受成本传导盘面反弹，周一国内豆粕现 货小幅上涨 20 元/吨，华东基差 01-80 持平。上周国内豆粕、大豆均累库，折豆粕库存仍处高位，去库 仍需等待压榨量及到港量拐点，下游库存天数小幅上升 0.36 天至 8.87 天。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压 榨大豆 243 万吨，本周预计压榨 240 万吨。 杨泽元 美豆产区 9 月初预报降雨恢复，整体预计中性略少水平。巴西方面，升贴水回落后震荡反弹。总体来看， USDA 大幅调低种植面积，美豆产量环比下调 108 万吨，短期利多 CBO ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Based on the current personnel changes in the Federal Reserve and the statements of key figures, combined with the overall marginal weakening of the US labor market, the Fed will enter an interest - rate cut cycle that exceeds market expectations. There is a high probability that the Fed will conduct three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts in the next three interest - rate meetings, which will be a significant positive factor for precious metal prices. In the interest - rate cut cycle, silver will outperform gold, causing the gold - silver ratio to decline significantly. The current strategy is to buy silver on dips, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai Gold futures contract being 794 - 836 yuan/gram and for the main Shanghai Silver futures contract being 9526 - 10500 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.86% to 801.58 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 2.46% to 9836.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.08% to 3548.80 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.22% to 41.64 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.23%, and the US dollar index was 97.67 [2]. - Various precious metal products such as Au(T + D), London gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc., showed different price and volume changes. For example, Au(T + D) rose 1.63% to 794.48 yuan/gram, and the London gold rose 1.33% to 3474.90 dollars/ounce [4]. 3.2 Key Figures' Statements - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Fed should maintain its independence but has made many mistakes. He also mentioned that Director Milan will officially take office before the September interest - rate meeting [2]. 3.3 Market Data Statistics - Gold and silver data statistics include closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, etc., in different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc., and their daily changes and historical quantiles. For example, the closing price of the active COMEX gold contract rose 1.13% to 3516.10 dollars/ounce, and its trading volume rose 18.74% to 18.01 million lots [6]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided to show the relationships between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors, such as the relationship between COMEX gold prices and the US dollar index, and the relationship between COMEX gold prices and real interest rates [8][11]. - Charts also show the near - far month structure of precious metals, such as COMEX gold, COMEX silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, and the price differences between different markets, such as SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA [19][20][30][39]. - Charts present the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX gold and COMEX silver and their relationships with prices, as well as the total holdings of gold and silver ETFs [47][49]. - Charts show the internal - external price differences of gold and silver, including their five - day moving averages and seasonal charts [52][53][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term macro atmosphere for the non - ferrous metals sector is positive, with a high probability of Fed rate cuts, which is expected to drive the overall strength of non - ferrous metals. However, different metals have different price trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals. For example, copper and lead are expected to be oscillating strongly, zinc is likely to be in a low - level oscillation, tin is expected to oscillate, nickel may strengthen in stages, and aluminum and stainless steel may rise with the approach of the peak season [1][5][7][8][10][16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.31% to $9,875/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,660 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 25 to 158,875 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 0.5 million tons (SMM caliber), while the bonded area inventory slightly decreased. - Outlook: The short - term copper price is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 79,000 - 80,200 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9,800 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum slightly rose to $2,619/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,690 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The domestic main consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 62.3 million tons, and the aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.9 million tons to 14.3 million tons. - Outlook: The aluminum price is expected to be supported. If the inventory inflection point appears, there will be stronger upward momentum. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2,590 - 2,640 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: The SHFE lead index closed down 0.15% to 16,857 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1,990.5/ton. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.58 million tons. - Outlook: The lead price is expected to be strong as the supply margin narrows and the non - ferrous metals sector atmosphere is positive [5]. Zinc - Price: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.13% to 22,168 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,830/ton. - Inventory: The zinc ingot social inventory continued to increase rapidly to 14.63 million tons. - Outlook: There is a divergence between the macro background and industrial status. The short - term decline space is limited, and it is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern [7]. Tin - Supply: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, and the shortage of tin mines in Yunnan is still severe. The production in September is expected to decline by 29.89% month - on - month. - Demand: The downstream is in the consumption off - season, and the traditional consumption areas are weak. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term as the supply decline is obvious while the demand is weak [8]. Nickel - Resources: The nickel ore price is expected to remain stable. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is relatively sufficient, and the iron mills' acceptance of nickel ore prices is okay. - Nickel iron: The supply increase is limited, and the demand is supported by the expected increase in stainless steel production in August and September. - Intermediate products: The market circulation of spot is tight, and the price is expected to be strong. - Outlook: The nickel price has limited downward space. It is recommended to go long on dips. The SHFE nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [9][10]. Carbonate Lithium - Price: The MMLC late - session index fell 0.35% to 76,816 yuan. - Outlook: The market is in a weak adjustment. The risk of a sharp decline in lithium prices is small. The LC2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 73,500 - 78,600 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 0.86% to 3,005 yuan/ton. - Outlook: After a sharp decline, the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,900 - 3,300 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,950 yuan/ton, up 1.05%. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 0.81% to 108.3 million tons. - Outlook: With the approach of the peak season, the actual consumption of stainless steel is expected to increase [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract closed down 0.37% to 20,275 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased to 3.37 million tons. - Outlook: The price is expected to run at a high level in the short term as the downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost is strongly supported [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - financial area, the policy is favorable to the capital market, but short - term fluctuations may occur. In the commodity market, different industries have different supply - demand relationships and price trends, affected by factors such as macro - economy, industry policies, and seasonal factors [3][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes China's initiatives in AI cooperation, new energy vehicle delivery data, and EU's stance on tariffs. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the general direction is to buy on dips, although short - term fluctuations may intensify [2][3]. - The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contracts are provided [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all rose. News includes the SCO summit and Hong Kong's development in green finance. The strategy is that under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates may decline, but the bond market may fluctuate in the short term [4][6]. Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have different trends. With the expected Fed rate cuts, precious metal prices are expected to rise, especially silver, and the gold - silver ratio may decline. It is recommended to buy silver on dips [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - After reaching a high, copper prices fell back. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased. With the high probability of Fed rate cuts and tight raw material supply, copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [9]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuated. The domestic inventory increased, and the demand showed marginal improvement. With the Fed's dovish signal, if the inventory turns around, aluminum prices may rise more strongly [11]. Zinc - Zinc prices showed a low - level shock pattern. Zinc concentrate is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the Fed rate cut expectation is high, the industry is in an oversupply situation [12]. Lead - Lead prices are expected to be strong. The lead concentrate inventory is decreasing, and the supply is narrowing. Although the downstream demand is weak, the Fed rate cut expectation is high [13][14]. Nickel - In the short term, the macro - environment is positive, and the nickel price is expected to be supported. The nickel ore price is stable, and the prices of nickel - iron and intermediate products are expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [15][16]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to be volatile. The supply is decreasing significantly due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while the demand is in the off - season [17]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices are in a weak adjustment. With the approaching peak season of the lithium - battery industry, attention should be paid to overseas supply. The risk of a sharp decline in prices is small [18][19]. Alumina - After a sharp decline, the downward space of alumina futures prices is limited. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices rose. With the approaching traditional consumption peak season, the demand is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be supported [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices may be high. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, the cost is supportive, and the market activity is increasing [22]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The overall demand for steel is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand and cost support [24][25]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The overseas shipment is increasing, the demand is affected by blast furnace maintenance, and the inventory situation is complex [26][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and follow the macro - sentiment in the long term. Soda ash prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and the price center may rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28][29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are weak. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions. The black sector may be under pressure in the future [30][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The supply pressure is greater than the demand support. Polysilicon prices are in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern and are highly volatile [34][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to be strong in the short term. The mid - term view is bullish. The opening rates of tire enterprises show different trends, and the inventory situation is complex [38][39]. Crude Oil - Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the oil price is undervalued. It is recommended to maintain a long - position view but not to chase the high price [40]. Methanol - Methanol supply pressure is increasing, and the market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - Urea is in a situation of low valuation and weak drive. It is recommended to buy on dips [42]. Styrene - The BZN spread has room for upward repair. After the inventory de - stocking inflection point, the styrene price may rebound [43]. PVC - PVC has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [45]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol is still excessive, and the mid - term inventory may accumulate. The valuation may decline [46]. PTA - The supply of PTA is in a de - stocking pattern, and the demand is improving. It is recommended to follow PX and buy on dips [47][48]. p - Xylene - The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance. It is recommended to follow crude oil and buy on dips in the peak season [49]. Polyethylene (PE) - PE prices may oscillate upward. The cost is supportive, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand may increase in the peak season [50]. Polypropylene (PP) - PP has a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips for the LL - PP2601 contract [51]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Pig prices may rise today. The supply in September may be weak, but there are potential supports. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the low - level rebound [53]. Eggs - Egg prices are mostly stable. The supply pressure is dominant. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contract and use the far - month reverse spread strategy [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The cost of soybean imports is weak and stable. Domestic soybean meal may enter the de - stocking stage in September. It is recommended to buy on dips in the low - cost range [55][56]. Oils and Fats - Oils and fats prices are expected to be oscillated and strong. The fundamentals support the price center, and the palm oil may rise in the fourth quarter [57][58]. Sugar - Sugar prices are in a downward view. The domestic supply may increase, and the price depends on the external market [59][61]. Cotton - Cotton prices are expected to be volatile at a high level. The downstream consumption may improve in the peak season, and the current inventory is low [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, some varieties are selected to provide option strategies and suggestions. Each option variety's strategy report includes an analysis of the underlying asset's market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [9] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2510 is 489, with a price increase of 5 and a price increase percentage of 1.10% [4] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.75 with a change of - 0.01, and the open interest PCR is 0.66 with a change of 0.02 [5] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interests, and maximum put option open interests of various option varieties are given. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 600 and the support point is 415 [6] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of different option varieties. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 24.095, and the weighted implied volatility is 26.73 with a change of 1.15 [7] 3.3 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - Class Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation of crude oil is healthy with OPEC showing a restraint attitude to support prices. The market has been fluctuating, with short - term weakness. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: The domestic supply of LPG is loose, and the demand is low. The market has been in a weak state. Option strategies involve constructing a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.3.2 Alcohol - Class Options - **Methanol**: The import volume of methanol has increased, and the downstream demand is weak. The market has been in a downward trend. Option strategies include a bear spread strategy for directional trading, a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol is decreasing. The market has been in a wide - range weak fluctuation. Option strategies include a short - volatility strategy for volatility trading and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.3 Polyolefin - Class Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory of polypropylene has decreased. The market has been in a weak state. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.4 Rubber - Class Options - **Rubber**: The capacity utilization rate of rubber tire enterprises has changed. The market has been in a short - term weak state. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategy [12] 3.3.5 Polyester - Class Options - **PTA**: The social inventory of PTA has decreased, and the downstream load has increased. The market has been in a weak rebound state. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategy [12] 3.3.6 Alkali - Class Options - **Caustic Soda**: The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda enterprises has decreased. The market has been in a fluctuating state. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Soda Ash**: The inventory of soda ash has decreased. The market has been in a fluctuating state with support at the bottom. Option strategies include a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility trading and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.3.7 Other Options - **Urea**: The port inventory of urea has increased, and the enterprise inventory is under pressure. The market has been in a low - level fluctuation state. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. Each sector selects some varieties for option strategy recommendations, and the strategy report for each option variety is compiled based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [8]. - Oil - and - fat and oilseed agricultural products are in a weak and volatile state, oils are in a volatile market, agricultural by - products maintain a volatile trend, soft commodity sugar has a slight fluctuation, cotton is in a weak consolidation, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation. It is recommended to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and position changes of multiple agricultural product option underlying contracts are presented, including soybeans (A2511, B2511), soybean meal (M2511), rapeseed meal (RM2511), palm oil (P2510), soybean oil (Y2511), rapeseed oil (OI2511), eggs (JD2510), live pigs (LH2511), peanuts (PK2510), apples (AP2601), jujubes (CJ2601), sugar (SR2511), cotton (CF2511), corn (C2511), starch (CS2511), and logs (LG2511) [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Quantity and Position PCR - The trading volume, volume change, open interest, position change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and position PCR change of multiple agricultural product options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The underlying contract, at - the - money strike price, pressure point, pressure point deviation, support point, support point deviation, maximum call option position, and maximum put option position of multiple agricultural product options are given, which show the pressure and support levels of the option underlying from the perspective of the strike price of the maximum call and put option positions [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and implied - historical volatility difference of multiple agricultural product options are presented [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Oil - and - Fat and Oilseed Options - **Soybeans (A2511, B2511)**: The US soybean good - rate is increasing, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium, import cost, and margin are decreasing. The soybean market is in a weak and volatile state. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal (M2511)**: The domestic soybean crushing volume and operating rate are increasing. The soybean meal market is in a weak and volatile state with pressure above. It is recommended to construct a bear spread strategy of put options, a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil (P2510)**: The palm oil market shows a short - term bullish upward and then retracement trend. The implied volatility is falling to a level below the historical average. It is recommended to construct a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts (PK2510)**: The peanut price has increased slightly, but the downstream follow - up is not as expected. The market is in a weak consolidation state. It is recommended to construct a bear spread strategy of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Live Pigs (LH2511)**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is stimulated. The market is in a weak consolidation state. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs (JD2510)**: The egg supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak and bearish state. It is recommended to construct a bear spread strategy of put options, a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [12]. - **Apples (AP2511)**: The cold - storage apple inventory is at a low level in recent years. The market is in a state of continuous recovery and upward movement with pressure above. It is recommended to construct a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [12]. - **Jujubes (CJ2601)**: The jujube inventory is decreasing, and the market shows a short - term retracement trend. It is recommended to construct a neutral wide - straddle option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar (SR2511)**: The sugar inventory pressure is not large, but the new - season production is expected to be high. The market is in a weak and bearish state. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton (CF2511)**: The cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to increase. The market is in a short - term weak state. It is recommended to construct a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn (C2511)**: The corn inventory in the northern port is decreasing, and the new - season supply is limited. The market is in a weak and bearish state with a rebound. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [14].

黑色建材日报 2025-09-02 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3115 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 25 元/吨（0.809%）。当日注册仓单 210938 吨, 环比增加 12041 吨。主力合约持仓量为 163.3714 万手，环比增加 578004 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢 天津汇总价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 30/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3250 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板 卷主力合约收盘价为 3303 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 43 元/吨（-1.28%）。 当日注册仓单 24760 吨, 环比 减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 119.5204 万 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, which are in a weak and volatile state, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended [2]. - For the black - series metals, with large - amplitude price fluctuations, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, as they are rising and breaking upward, a spot hedging strategy is proposed [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2510): The latest price is 79,660, down 50 (-0.06%), with a trading volume of 7.85 million lots (an increase of 0.74 million lots) and an open interest of 18.06 million lots (an increase of 0.68 million lots) [3]. - Aluminum (AL2510): The latest price is 20,690, up 20 (0.10%), with a trading volume of 15.86 million lots (an increase of 3.73 million lots) and an open interest of 22.12 million lots (a decrease of 1.54 million lots) [3]. - Other metals also have their respective price, trading volume, and open - interest data detailed in the report [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For copper, the volume PCR is 0.34 (a decrease of 0.08), and the open - interest PCR is 0.74 (a decrease of 0.06) [4]. - For aluminum, the volume PCR is 0.45 (a decrease of 0.13), and the open - interest PCR is 0.81 (a decrease of 0.02) [4]. - Different metals have different PCR values, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points of the market [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Copper: The pressure point is 82,000, and the support point is 78,000 [5]. - Aluminum: The pressure point is 21,000, and the support point is 20,200 [5]. - These levels are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Copper: The at - the - money implied volatility is 11.50%, the weighted implied volatility is 16.24% (an increase of 2.46%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility is - 1.90% [6]. - Aluminum: The at - the - money implied volatility is 9.50%, the weighted implied volatility is 10.75% (an increase of 0.15%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility is - 1.49% [6]. - Implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of future price fluctuations [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: - Fundamental analysis: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 million tons, with different changes in each exchange's inventory [8]. - Market analysis: The Shanghai copper market showed a high - level consolidation pattern [8]. - Option factor analysis: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates some pressure above [8]. - Strategy: A short - volatility seller's option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [8]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals (Aluminum, Zinc, etc.)**: Similar analysis and strategy recommendations are provided for each metal, considering their fundamentals, market trends, option factors, and proposing corresponding directional, volatility, and spot - hedging strategies [9][10][11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver Options**: - Fundamental analysis: The US economic data in the second quarter showed better - than - expected growth and lower - than - expected inflation [12]. - Market analysis: Shanghai gold is in a short - term consolidation and upward - breaking trend [12]. - Option factor analysis: Implied volatility is around the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates strong support below [12]. - Strategy: A neutral short - volatility option seller's combination strategy and a spot - hedging strategy are recommended [12]. 3.5.3 Black - Series Metals - **Rebar, Iron Ore, etc.**: - Fundamental analysis: Inventory data of rebar and iron ore are provided, showing different inventory changes [13]. - Market analysis: Rebar is in a weak consolidation pattern, and iron ore is in an interval - fluctuating and rebounding pattern [13]. - Option factor analysis: Implied volatility and open - interest PCR are analyzed for each metal [13][14][15]. - Strategy: Short - volatility combination strategies and spot - hedging or spot - covered strategies are recommended according to different situations [13][14][15].