1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic PVC market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals. Although short - term electricity price expectations and the rush to export may support PVC prices, in the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies should be adopted before substantial industry production cuts [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2,400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has declined to a low level again, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased, with the current valuation being moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.6%, unchanged from the previous week. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 80%, up 0.3% from the previous week; the ethylene method is 78.8%, down 0.8% from the previous week. The supply - side load was flat last week, with the loads of Fujian Wanhua, Yibin Tianyuan, and Salt Lake Magnesium Industry decreasing. The load is expected to decline next week. The overall load in January is still expected to be high, with a small reduction in production and high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: It is currently the off - season for exports, but the export tax rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, leading to a short - term rush to export. The operating rates of the three major downstream sectors remained stable. The pipe load is 35.4%, unchanged from the previous week; the film load is 66.4%, unchanged from the previous week; the profile load is 29.9%, down 0.3% from the previous week. The overall downstream load is 43.9%, down 0.1% from the previous week, and the overall downstream operating rate is gradually entering the off - season. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 92.6 million tons, up 1.7 million tons from the previous week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 31.1 million tons, with a destocking of 1.7 million tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 114.4 million tons, with a stockpiling of 3 million tons from the previous week; the overall inventory was 145.5 million tons, with a stockpiling of 1.3 million tons from the previous week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Currently, inventory is turning to stockpiling. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, domestic demand has entered the off - season. Short - term exports may surge due to the rush to export, but there is significant medium - term export pressure, making it difficult to digest the high production volume [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The content mainly includes multiple charts such as PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, showing the historical trends of these data from 2022 to 2026 [15][19][24][26] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - The content presents various charts related to inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventories, and warehouse receipts, as well as charts related to profit, such as the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][39][41] 3.4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: Calcium carbide prices in Wuhai and Shandong are presented in the chart, along with the inventory and operating rate of calcium carbide, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026. The calcium carbide price is currently stable [47][48] - **Other Raw Materials**: The chart shows the price trends of Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price [55] 3.5. Supply Side - **Capacity**: The historical trend of PVC capacity and the PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025 are presented, including information on specific production facilities, production processes, production capacities, and commissioning times, with a total capacity of 2.5 million tons/year in 2025 [59][63] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly PVC production volume, are presented, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [68][69] 3.6. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rates of PVC downstream sectors such as pipes, films, and profiles are presented, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026. The overall downstream operating rate is gradually entering the off - season, with the pipe load at 35.4%, the film load at 66.4%, the profile load at 29.9%, and the overall downstream load at 43.9% [74][75] - **Export Demand**: The export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, and the pre - sales volume are presented, showing their historical trends. Currently, it is the off - season for exports, but the export tax rebate policy cancellation on April 1st will lead to a short - term rush to export [77][82] - **Related Indicators**: The chart shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, which is related to PVC demand [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment for commodities is expected to remain bullish, but the main focus will be on precious metals and non-ferrous metals. Other sectors will be more influenced by the spill - over of market sentiment [18]. - In the short - term, the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to show a moderately strong oscillating trend. However, attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the current high volatility risk [18]. - The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is marginally loosening, but considering the pre - holiday restocking, the relationship between coking coal, coke, and downstream hot metal remains relatively balanced. Steel enterprises have low expectations for the future market and weak restocking willingness [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Last week, coking coal futures prices rose at the beginning of the week, hit the upper pressure level, and then oscillated downward, with a weekly decline of 22 yuan/ton or - 1.84%. Coking coal futures are in a daily - level rebound cycle. Coking coke futures prices also showed a slight oscillating downward trend last week, with a weekly decline of 30.5 yuan/ton or - 1.74%. Coking coke prices are approaching the long - term downward trend line since October 2021 [11][16]. - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Coking coal spot prices generally increased, and most varieties had positive basis. Coking coke spot prices remained stable, and the basis showed a discount situation [17]. - **Variety Positions**: The positions of the main coking coal contract are at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the non - main contracts in March and April also have abnormally high positions. Attention should be paid to the pressure of warehouse receipts after price increases [17]. - **Domestic Production**: The daily average production of clean coal from 523 sample mines increased by 3.42 tons week - on - week, but the cumulative production decreased by about 810,000 tons or - 3.29% year - on - year [17]. - **Overseas Imports**: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has decreased to 169,000 tons/day but is still at a high level. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 118 yuan/ton, and the import window is still closed [17]. - **Demand**: The daily average coke production of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants decreased by 0.28 tons. The daily average hot metal production of steel enterprises decreased by 1.49 tons, and the steel mill profit margin increased by 2.17%. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased, and the inventory decreased slightly but was still higher than the same period last year [17]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The daily average supply of coking coal increased, while the demand decreased, and the supply - demand structure was marginally loosened. The daily average demand for coking coke was slightly lower than the production, and the supply - demand structure also showed marginal looseness [18]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory increased by 421,000 tons, and the total coking coke inventory increased by 43,100 tons. The inventory of coking coal and coke is being transferred from upstream to downstream [18]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - **Coking Coal Spot Prices**: As of January 16, 2026, the prices of skeleton coking coal such as low - sulfur, medium - sulfur, and high - sulfur main coking coal increased significantly, while the prices of 1/3 coking coal, lean coal, and gas coal increased slightly. The prices of different coking coal varieties in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase [22][24][27]. - **Coking Coke Spot Prices**: As of January 16, 2026, the prices of coking coke in Rizhao Port and Lvliang remained stable [33]. - **Coking Coal Basis**: As of January 16, 2026, Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal and Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal had positive basis, and the basis increased compared with the previous period [40]. - **Coking Coal Calendar Spread**: As of January 16, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal was - 82 yuan/ton, and coking coal maintained a Contango structure [43]. - **Coking Coke Basis**: As of January 16, 2026, Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke had negative basis, and the basis increased compared with the previous period [46]. - **Coking Coke Calendar Spread**: As of January 16, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread of coking coke was - 79.5 yuan/ton, and coking coke maintained a Contango structure [49]. 3.3 Positions and Variety Ratios - **Variety Positions**: As of January 16, 2026, the total unilateral positions of coking coal were 617,800 lots, a decrease of 23,600 lots week - on - week, and the positions were still at a relatively high historical level. The unilateral positions of coking coke were 40,300 lots, an increase of 100 lots week - on - week [58]. - **Variety Ratios**: This week, coking coal performed slightly weaker than iron ore and hot - rolled coils, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore is still at a low historical level. Iron ore and hot - rolled coils were also slightly stronger than coking coke, and the ratio of coking coke to iron ore is also at a low historical level [65][68]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Domestic Coking Coal Production**: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average production of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 768,500 tons, an increase of 34,200 tons week - on - week, and the production continued to recover. The daily average production of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants was 273,500 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative production increased year - on - year [73][75]. - **Imported Coking Coal**: As of January 10, 2026, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 169,000 tons/day but was still at a high level. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal increased year - on - year. The import profit of Australian coking coal was negative, and the import window was closed. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Australian coking coal decreased year - on - year. The imports of Russian and Canadian coking coal increased in 2025 compared with the previous year, while the imports of US coking coal decreased significantly [78][81][84]. - **Coking Coke Production**: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average coke production of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants decreased, and the coking profit of independent coking plants was - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [90]. - **Downstream Steel Industry**: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the steel mill profit margin increased. The estimated profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils on the futures market improved. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased, and the inventory decreased slightly but was still higher than the same period last year [96][102][106]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The daily average supply of coking coal increased, while the demand decreased, and the supply - demand structure was marginally loosened. The daily average demand for coking coke was slightly lower than the production, and the supply - demand structure also showed marginal looseness [108]. 3.5 Inventory - **Inventory Overview**: As of January 16, 2026, the total coking coal inventory increased by 421,000 tons, and the total coking coke inventory increased by 43,100 tons. The inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continued [112]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The inventory of sample mines decreased, while the inventories of independent coking plants and steel mills increased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [112]. - **Coking Coke Inventory**: The inventory of independent coking plants decreased, while the inventories of steel mills and ports increased [112].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last week, PXN pulled back due to cooling commodity bullish sentiment and lack of further drivers, along with the polyester market entering the off - season. Currently, PX load remains high while downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. However, after the Spring Festival, both PX and downstream PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand, and the repair of PTA processing fees will further expand the space for PXN. Mid - term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [11]. - PTA: Last week, PTA processing fees fluctuated, and the upstream PXN was compressed. In the future, the supply side will maintain high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side, polyester and chemical fiber, will face great profit pressure and gradually reduce load due to the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. In terms of valuation, PTA processing fees have recovered to a normal level, and the PXN center has also risen. It will maintain fluctuations in the short term due to the off - season, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips and grasp the rhythm [12]. - MEG: In terms of industry fundamentals, the unexpected maintenance of foreign device loads has increased, while the domestic maintenance decline is still insufficient. The overall load is still high, and the import volume is expected to decline in January but the decline is limited. The port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. Mid - term, under the pressure of new device production, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The current valuation is neutral year - on - year. In the short term, beware of the rebound risk due to the tense situation in Iran. Mid - term, if there is no further domestic production reduction, the valuation is expected to be compressed [13]. Summaries According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: - **Price Performance**: The 03 contract fell 38 yuan to 7130 yuan last week. The spot CFR China price dropped 5 dollars to 881 dollars. The spot - converted basis fell 16 yuan to - 15 yuan as of January 15th, and the 3 - 5 spread fell 16 yuan to - 58 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: The domestic load was 89.4%, a 1.5% MoM decrease; the Asian load was 80.6%, a 0.6% MoM decrease. Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load, and overseas Thai PTTG and Israeli Gadiv plants restarted. In January, South Korea exported 14.6 tons of PX to China in the first ten days, a 0.7 - ton YoY increase [11]. - **Demand**: PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% MoM decrease. Dushan Energy increased its load, and Yisheng New Materials stopped production. The expected maintenance volume of PTA in January remains at the December level, and the overall load is still low [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 446 tons at the end of November, a 6 - ton increase. According to the balance sheet, inventory accumulation is expected to continue from January to February [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: As of January 14th, PXN was 337 dollars, a 30 - dollar YoY decrease; the naphtha crack spread fell 9 dollars to 81 dollars, and crude oil fluctuated. The gasoline crack spread in the US and Asia was weak last week, and the aromatics spread remained low, with the relative value of blending oil being weak [11]. - **PTA**: - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract fell 38 yuan to 5048 yuan last week. The spot price in East China dropped 20 yuan to 5050 yuan. The spot basis rose 16 yuan to - 64 yuan as of January 15th, and the 5 - 9 spread fell 22 yuan to 38 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% MoM decrease. Dushan Energy increased its load, and Yisheng New Materials stopped production. The expected maintenance volume of PTA in January remains at the December level, and the overall load is still low [12]. - **Demand**: Polyester load was 88.1%, a 2.7% MoM decrease. Among them, filament load was 88.8%, a 1.4% MoM decrease; staple fiber load was 97.6%, flat MoM; bottle chip load was 74.8%, a 0.1% MoM increase. In terms of terminals, finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, and the load of texturing, weaving, and polyester yarn all decreased [12]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9th, the overall PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 200.5 tons, a 2.5 - ton decrease. Polyester will gradually start maintenance in January, and PTA is expected to start accumulating inventory [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee rose 15 yuan to 383 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee fell 13 yuan to 371 yuan/ton as of January 15th [12]. - **MEG**: - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract fell 29 yuan to 3817 yuan last week. The spot price in East China dropped 21 yuan to 3696 yuan. The basis rose 3 yuan to - 140 yuan as of January 15th, and the 5 - 9 spread fell 20 yuan to - 111 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: EG load was 74.4%, a 0.3% MoM increase. Among them, syngas - based load was 80.2%, a 0.9% MoM increase; ethylene - based load was 71.2%, a 0.1% MoM decrease. Overseas, a Kuwaiti plant stopped production, and US Sasol reduced its load [13]. - **Demand**: Polyester load was 88.1%, a 2.7% MoM decrease. In terms of terminals, finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, and the load of texturing, weaving, and polyester yarn all decreased [13]. - **Inventory**: As of January 12th, port inventory was 80.2 tons, a 7.7 - ton increase; downstream factory inventory days were 14 days, a 0.7 - day decrease. In the short term, port inventory is expected to accumulate [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based profit decreased 180 yuan to - 937 yuan/ton, domestic ethylene - based profit rose 58 yuan to - 836 yuan/ton, and coal - based profit rose 95 yuan to 283 yuan/ton. The current overall valuation is neutral [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: Basis fluctuated, and monthly spreads weakened. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [32][35]. - **PTA**: Basis weakened, and monthly spreads declined. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [40][47]. - **MEG**: Basis fluctuated, and monthly spreads were weak. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [56][64]. 3. p - Xylene Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: Domestic new capacities include FJDH (technical transformation), Huajin Aramco, and Yantai Yulongdao; overseas new capacity is IOC. The start - up rate in China and Asia has changed, and the import volume in November decreased slightly [74][80]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased slightly in November [83]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN pulled back slightly, the short - process spread was high, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated. The performance of gasoline in aromatics blending was weak [86][94]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacities in 2025 include Honggang Petrochemical, Hailun Petrochemical, and Dushan Energy; in 2026, new capacities are from India Oil and GAIL. The load has changed, and the export volume data is provided [128]. - **Inventory**: There was phased inventory reduction [135]. - **Profit and Valuation**: Processing fees fluctuated after a rebound [138]. 5. Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacities in 2025 include Zhengdaikai, Yulong Petrochemical, and Yichang; in 2026, new capacities are from BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei. The start - up rate has changed, and the import volume decreased in November [142]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased slightly this week (the statistical caliber has changed) [155]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices fluctuated weakly, ethylene prices fell, and the profit was moderately low [166][169]. 6. Polyester and End - users - **Polyester**: There will be more new capacity put into production in the first half of 2026. The start - up rate decreased seasonally, the export data in November increased both YoY and MoM, the filament inventory was at a low level, the filament profit recovered slightly [186][188][194]. - **End - users**: The start - up rate decreased, and the year - on - year decline rate was relatively slow. Orders decreased, inventory increased, and raw material inventory decreased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing recovered, while exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high [210][217][220].

02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 联储新主席候选人预期生 变，进入震荡区间 贵金属周报 2026/01/17 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 ◆ 本周行情回顾：沪金涨2.57%，报1032.32 元/克，沪银涨20.03%，报22483.00 元/千克；COMEX金涨1.83%，报4601.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨12.73%，报89.95 美元/盎司； ◆ 美联储主席新任候选人预期产生较大边际变化，年内联储大幅降息的预期有所弱化：联储新主席的竞争格局由"双凯文"转向"沃什领 跑"，此前，下任美联储主席的角逐主要聚焦在哈塞特与前美联储理事凯文·沃什之间。哈塞特曾被视为头号热门人选，因为他与特朗普 关系极度亲近且政策立场更为鸽派，即最不具备独立性。但特朗普昨晚直言"哈塞特在媒体中表现不错，可能会让他继续留任"。特朗普 的表态令市场迅速调高了 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The nickel market shows a high - level volatile pattern with the game between expectations and reality. Different nickel - related products have different market trends. In the short term, high - nickel pig iron prices are expected to remain strong, while refined nickel is likely to experience wide - range fluctuations. [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The nickel ore market is generally strong this week. Supply - side price support and cost increases are the core drivers. Philippine mines have firm quotes, and the HPM benchmark price in Indonesia has been significantly raised, pushing up the arrival cost of pyrometallurgical ore [11]. - **Nickel iron**: The price of domestic high - nickel pig iron has continued to rise sharply. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron has increased by 70 yuan/nickel point to 1017.5 yuan/nickel point (ex - factory tax included). Market circulation of goods is tight, and the price is supported by the futures market and downstream stainless - steel enterprises' profit improvement [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The nickel intermediate products maintain a pattern of "tight supply + high coefficient". MHP and high - grade nickel matte are both in short supply, but high prices suppress transactions. The price of auxiliary material sulfur is prone to rise [11]. - **Refined nickel**: The refined nickel market shows a typical volatile pattern of "strong - expectation pull - up and weak - reality suppression". The futures market is mainly driven by the expectation of tightened RKAB quotas in Indonesia in 2026. High inventory and weak demand lead to large fluctuations. Spot market premiums have declined slightly, and global visible inventory has increased. In the future, refined nickel is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The short - term price range of SHFE nickel is 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M contract is 17,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures price trend**: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts, including LME 3 - month nickel and SHFE nickel [15]. - **Spot premium**: It shows the spot premiums of domestic and LME nickel, including premiums of RUSNICKEL and Jinchuan nickel [18]. - **Secondary nickel price**: The prices of nickel iron and sulfuric acid nickel and their premiums are presented [21]. 3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: Information on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic imports, port inventories, and prices in Indonesia and the Philippines is provided [26][28][30]. - **Nickel iron**: The monthly production and production profits of nickel iron in Indonesia and China are shown [32][34]. - **Intermediate products**: The production, import volume, and prices of MHP and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia and China are presented [36][38][40]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In December 2025, the national refined nickel production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 666 tons. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rates [44][46]. - **Demand**: It presents the demand for refined nickel from the stainless - steel industry, manufacturing, and real - estate sectors, as well as related inventory data [47][49]. - **Import and export**: The import volume and import profit and loss of domestic refined nickel are shown [51]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 840 tons to 345,000 tons. The report also shows domestic and LME regional inventories [54][56]. - **Cost**: The production cost and profit rate of refined nickel by different raw materials and processes are presented [57]. 5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: The production and net import volume of sulfuric acid nickel in China are shown [61]. - **Demand**: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel from ternary power batteries and ternary precursors is presented [64]. - **Cost and price**: The production cost, price, and profit rate of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel by different raw materials are shown [66]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides a detailed supply - demand balance table for nickel from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, supply - demand gaps, and visible inventories of different nickel products globally and in China [69][70].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bullish sentiment in the commodities market will continue, mainly centered around precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Other sectors are more affected by the spill - over of market sentiment, and the scope of sentiment influence may shrink in the short term [16][94] - The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon is still unfavorable, but these factors are mostly priced in. The supply - demand structure of silicon - iron is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market drivers for both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are the direction of the black sector and overall market sentiment, as well as cost - push from manganese ore for manganese - silicon and supply contraction for silicon - iron [16][94] - Pay close attention to potential sudden events in the manganese ore market and the progress of the 'dual - carbon' policy, and look forward to an upward trend supported by costs [16][94] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manganese - Silicon Report 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Last week, the manganese - silicon futures price oscillated weakly, down 66 yuan/ton or - 1.12% week - on - week. Technically, it's in an oscillatory phase. Watch the resistance levels at 6000 and 6250 yuan/ton and support levels at 5800 and 5700 yuan/ton [13] - Spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price was 5828 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton; basis was 82 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton; basis rate was 1.40%, at a relatively neutral historical level [15][21] - Calculated profit remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 355 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan/ton), Ningxia at - 601 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan/ton), and Guangxi at - 375 yuan/ton (up 63 yuan/ton) [15] - Calculated cost: Inner Mongolia was 6105 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton), Ningxia was 6231 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton), and Guangxi was 6225 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton) [15] - Supply: Weekly production was 19.06 tons, down 0.04 tons week - on - week, basically stable [15][45] - Demand: Weekly production of rebar was 190.3 tons, down 0.74 tons; daily average pig iron production was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons [15] - Inventory: Calculated visible inventory was 56.17 tons, up 1.13 tons, still at a high level compared to the same period [15][70] 3.1.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of January 16, 2026, Tianjin 6517 manganese - silicon spot price was 5720 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price was 5828 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton; basis was 82 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton; basis rate was 1.40%, at a relatively neutral level [21] 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia was - 355 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan/ton; Ningxia was - 601 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; Guangxi was - 375 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton [25][26] - Production cost: South African ore was 36.5 yuan/ton - degree (up 0.7 yuan/ton - degree), Australian ore was 42 yuan/ton - degree (stable), Gabonese ore was 43.3 yuan/ton - degree (up 0.3 yuan/ton - degree); metallurgical coke was 1185 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [28] - Inner Mongolia's electricity price decreased by 0.0175 yuan/kWh. Calculated cost: Inner Mongolia was 6105 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton), Ningxia was 6231 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton), Guangxi was 6225 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton) [31] - In November, manganese ore imports were 269.4 tons, down 40.6 tons month - on - month and up 49.4 tons year - on - year. From January to November, cumulative imports were 2956.8 tons, up 10.63% year - on - year [34] - As of January 9, 2026, manganese ore port inventory was 417.5 tons, down 30.3 tons. Australian ore inventory was 69.1 tons, up 3.4 tons; high - grade ore inventory was 124.1 tons, up 1.1 tons [37][40] 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - Total production: As of January 16, 2026, weekly production was 19.06 tons, down 0.04 tons week - on - week, basically stable. In December 2025, monthly production was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month [45] - Steel procurement: Hebei Steel's December 2025 manganese - silicon procurement volume was 14,700 tons, down 1300 tons month - on - month and up 1100 tons year - on - year; procurement price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [56] - Consumption: Weekly apparent consumption was 11.58 tons, down 0.01 tons week - on - week; rebar weekly production was 190.3 tons, down 0.74 tons; daily average pig iron production was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons. In November 2025, national crude steel production was 69.9 million tons, down 2.1 million tons month - on - month and 8.5 million tons year - on - year. From January to November, cumulative production was 882 million tons, down 33.4 million tons or 3.65% year - on - year [59][62] - Steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, up 2.17 percentage points [63] 3.1.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: As of January 16, 2026, calculated visible inventory was 56.17 tons, up 1.13 tons, still at a high level compared to the same period [70] - 63 sample enterprises' inventory was 37.28 tons, down 0.97 tons [73] - In December, steel mill inventory average available days were 15.52 days, down 0.32 days, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period [76] 3.2 Silicon - Iron Report 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Last week, the silicon - iron futures price oscillated downward, down 56 yuan/ton or - 1.00% week - on - week. Technically, it showed a weak short - term trend. Watch the resistance levels at 5850 and 6000 yuan/ton and support levels at 5500 and 5450 yuan/ton [90] - Daily average pig iron production was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons; from January to December 2025, cumulative metal magnesium production was 87.31 tons, down 0.36 tons or 0.41% year - on - year; from January to November 2025, cumulative silicon - iron exports were 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year [92] - Inventory: Calculated visible inventory was 11.60 tons, down 1.12 tons, at a relatively low - neutral level compared to the same period [92] - Basis: Tianjin 72 silicon - iron spot price was 5800 yuan/ton (stable); futures price was 5570 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton; basis was 230 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton; basis rate was 3.97%, at a relatively high historical level [93] - Profit: Inner Mongolia's profit was - 233 yuan/ton (up 160 yuan/ton), Ningxia's was - 270 yuan/ton (stable), and Qinghai's was - 797 yuan/ton (stable) [93] - Cost: Inner Mongolia's production cost was 5553 yuan/ton (down 140 yuan/ton), Ningxia's was 5590 yuan/ton (stable), and Qinghai's was 6097 yuan/ton (stable) [93] - Supply: Weekly production was 9.87 tons, down 0.04 tons week - on - week, basically stable, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [93] 3.2.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of January 16, 2026, Tianjin 72 silicon - iron spot price was 5800 yuan/ton (stable); futures price was 5570 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton; basis was 230 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton; basis rate was 3.97%, at a relatively high level [99] 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia was - 233 yuan/ton (up 160 yuan/ton), Ningxia was - 270 yuan/ton (stable), and Qinghai was - 797 yuan/ton (stable) [104] - Production cost: Northwest silicon stone price was 210 yuan/ton (stable), and semi - coke small material price was 780 yuan/ton (stable) [107] - Inner Mongolia's electricity price decreased by 0.0175 yuan/kWh. Inner Mongolia's production cost was 5553 yuan/ton (down 140 yuan/ton), Ningxia's was 5590 yuan/ton (stable), and Qinghai's was 6097 yuan/ton (stable) [110] 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - Total production: As of January 16, 2026, weekly production was 9.87 tons, down 0.04 tons week - on - week, basically stable, at a relatively low level compared to the same period. In December 2025, monthly production was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month. From January to December 2025, cumulative production was down 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [115] - Steel procurement: Hebei Steel's January 2026 75B silicon - iron alloy procurement volume was 3313 tons, up 563 tons month - on - month and up 1130 tons year - on - year; procurement price was 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month [121] - Steel consumption: Daily average pig iron production was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons. In November 2025, national crude steel production was 69.9 million tons, down 2.1 million tons month - on - month and 8.5 million tons year - on - year. From January to November, cumulative production was 882 million tons, down 33.4 million tons or 3.65% year - on - year [124] - Non - steel consumption: From January to December 2025, cumulative metal magnesium production was 87.31 tons, down 0.36 tons or 0.41% year - on - year; as of January 16, 2026, metal magnesium price in Fugu was 16,550 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton [127] - From January to November 2025, cumulative silicon - iron exports were 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year; calculated export profit was - 77 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [130] - From January to November 2025, overseas crude steel production was 767 million tons, up 1.7 million tons or 0.22% year - on - year [131] 3.2.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: As of January 16, 2026, calculated visible inventory was 11.60 tons, down 1.12 tons, at a relatively low - neutral level compared to the same period [138] - In December, steel mill inventory average available days were 15.41 days, down 0.39 days, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period [141]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: The structural contradiction remains unresolved, the downward driving force of the spot is insufficient, and the near - month futures may continue to be strongly volatile. Mid - term: The supply base is still large, and there is a risk of the living inventory piling up later. The far - end price may face concentrated realization and remain under pressure [11][12]. - Low prices and festival effects stimulate better consumption. The large fat - standard price difference leads to the sentiment of hoarding and delaying sales. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has significantly increased, driving a rational rebound in the futures [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic pig prices fluctuated. Overall, the north was stronger than the south. In the early part of the week, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell was low, the market supply was limited, and downstream buyers raised prices to purchase. But the market digestion ability was limited. In the later part of the week, as the supply increased, the price declined. The weekly slaughter volume decreased, the average trading weight increased, the fat - standard price difference was higher year - on - year but declined month - on - month. In the short - term, pig prices may continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pig prices may rise again as the pre - Spring Festival demand peak approaches [11]. - **Supply Side**: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, due to the time - lag effect, the theoretical supply in at least the first half of this year is still large, and the fundamentals will improve in the second half of the year. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction progress, with the sow inventory increasing by 0.54% month - on - month according to Yongyi data. The theoretical出栏量 remains high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although there is a seasonal decline month - on - month, the decline is small and the year - on - year volume is still high. Currently, the supply of large pigs in the market is tight, the fat - standard price difference is high year - on - year, which leads to strong sentiment of hoarding and delaying sales among upstream farmers. Although the slaughter volume is not low, the average trading weight has increased against the season, indicating a sign of the living inventory piling up later [11]. - **Demand Side**: Slaughtering enterprises reported that the sales speed of white - striped pigs was slow, and their acceptance of high - priced live pigs was decreasing, which restricted the increase of pig prices to some extent [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long on the 03 contract in the short - term and wait to go short on the 05 and 07 contracts. For arbitrage, prefer positive spreads [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Trend**: Last week, pig prices first declined and then rose. The supply of large pigs was tight, and the upstream hoarding sentiment was strong. But after New Year's Day, the demand decreased, which narrowed the price increase. The average trading weight was larger year - on - year and increased month - on - month, and the fat - standard price difference declined from a high level but was still large year - on - year. Next week, the supply will increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the market. However, the resistance sentiment of farmers may limit the price decline. The demand support is insufficient due to the decrease in slaughter volume and the slowdown of secondary fattening. It is expected that pig prices will mainly show a stable and slightly declining trend [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price rebounded, the futures basis turned positive, and the monthly spread turned to a positive spread [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Sow Inventory and Changes**: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, the theoretical supply in at least the first half of this year is still large due to the time - lag effect. The fundamentals will improve in the second half of the year. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction progress, with the sow inventory increasing by 0.54% month - on - month according to Yongyi data [34]. - **Theoretical出栏量**: From the piglet data, the theoretical出栏量 remains high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although there is a seasonal decline month - on - month, the decline is small and the year - on - year volume is still high [42]. - **Size of Slaughtered Pigs**: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is generally low but slowly rising, indicating that the current epidemic situation has increased but is generally controllable. The proportion of large pigs has seasonally increased, indicating that large pigs from散户 are gradually being sold [45]. - **Trading and Post - slaughter Average Weight**: Currently, the supply of large pigs in the market is tight, the fat - standard price difference is high year - on - year, which leads to strong sentiment of hoarding and delaying sales among upstream farmers. Although the slaughter volume is not low, the average trading weight has increased against the season, indicating a sign of the living inventory piling up later [49]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: Currently, the increase in slaughter volume is limited, and its support for the market is insufficient. The price of large pigs is high, the pace of secondary fattening replenishment has slowed down, and the support from secondary fattening demand is also insufficient [58]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is in a continuous decline state. The pig price is the weakest in the same period in many years. Although the cost is low, there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen product inventory is in a state of slow recovery and active inventory accumulation [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series is in a bottom - oscillating pattern. Although the previous commodity market sentiment was good, it is sensitive to marginal news. Be vigilant against market rumors and strengthen information verification. The actual terminal demand for steel is weak, and it is in a policy window period. Focus on the de - stocking progress of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - For iron ore, overseas shipments are entering the off - season, supply pressure may ease marginally, iron water has limited resumption of production, and inventory structural problems remain unsolved. With a warm commodity market atmosphere, prices are supported. It is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term [5] - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the long - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but beware of short - term high - volatility risks. The future market is mainly affected by the direction of the black sector and cost - pushing and supply - contraction factors. Pay attention to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [9][10] - For coking coal and coke, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high - volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and downstream inventory is low with a certain tendency to replenish. Prices are likely to oscillate in the current range [16] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand situation is difficult to change significantly, facing inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to be under pressure, and pay attention to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [19] - For polysilicon, after the release of negative sentiment, prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to actual spot transactions and official policies [22] - For glass, with the decline in daily melting volume and the increase in fuel costs, prices are boosted, but high inventory restricts the upward space. Observe the digestion of high inventory and actual spot transactions [25] - For soda ash, the supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The overall pattern is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [27] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3160 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2404 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 6339 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai summary prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3307 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.030%). The registered warehouse receipts increased by 21259 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 530 lots. The Shanghai summary price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Lecong summary price remained unchanged [1] Strategy Views - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has improved, but inventory de - stocking is slow; the apparent demand for rebar has increased significantly, production is at a medium level, and inventory is basically flat. The black - series is in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and pay attention to hot - rolled coil de - stocking, "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 813.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.97% (- 8.00), and positions decreased by 10286 lots to 65.24 million lots. The weighted positions were 99.83 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 820 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.75% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments are declining, with a large decline in Brazilian shipments. Near - end arrivals are increasing. Demand: The average daily hot - metal output has declined, and the steel mill profitability rate has risen to nearly 40%. Inventory: Port inventory is accumulating, and steel mill import ore inventory is increasing but still at a low level. Prices are expected to be supported and oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 15, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.84% at 5870 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 1.41% at 5610 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 240 yuan/ton over the futures [8] Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but beware of short - term high - volatility risks. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is affected by the black sector direction, manganese ore cost - pushing, and supply - contraction factors [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On January 15, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.75% at 1187.5 yuan/ton. The Shanxi low - sulfur main - coking coal price increased, and the Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal price decreased. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 0.37% at 1745 yuan/ton. The Rizhao Port and Lvliang coke prices remained unchanged [12] Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but beware of short - term high - volatility risks. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and downstream inventory is low with a certain tendency to replenish. Prices are likely to oscillate in the current range [16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2605) closed at 8730 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (- 25). The weighted contract positions decreased by 3024 lots to 365402 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged. Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2605) closed at 48670 yuan/ton, down 0.56% (- 275). The weighted contract positions decreased by 1367 lots to 86469 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged [18][20] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: Supply - side improvement is insufficient, demand is weak, and it is facing inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to be under pressure. Polysilicon: After the release of negative sentiment, prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to actual spot transactions and official policies [19][22] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 1086 yuan/ton, down 0.91% (- 10). The North China and Central China spot prices remained unchanged. The weekly inventory decreased by 250.50 million cases (- 4.51%). Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1193 yuan/ton, down 2.37% (- 29). The Shahe heavy - soda price decreased by 19 yuan. The weekly inventory increased by 0.23 million tons [24][26] Strategy Views - Glass: With the decline in daily melting volume and the increase in fuel costs, prices are boosted, but high inventory restricts the upward space. Observe the digestion of high inventory and actual spot transactions. Soda ash: Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The overall pattern is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [25][27]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with the Shanghai copper main contract referring to the range of 101,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M operating range referring to 12,900 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [3] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating range referring to 24,000 - 24,600 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M operating range referring to 3,140 - 3,200 US dollars/ton [5] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to move sideways in the short term [8] - Lead prices may have a short - term pulse - type increase and may follow the sector to make up for the increase [11] - Zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the increase in macro - attributes, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio should be observed [14] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract reference operating range is 400,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference operating range is 52,000 - 56,000 US dollars/ton [16] - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The short - term Shanghai nickel price operating range refers to 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract operating range refers to 17,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton [19] - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 156,000 - 169,000 yuan/ton [23] - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and it is not cost - effective to chase long. One can wait for an opportunity to arrange short positions in the near - month contract. The domestic main contract AO2605 reference operating range is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26][27] - Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, and the main contract reference operating range is 14,000 - 14,900 yuan/ton [29] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Geopolitical concerns eased, causing crude oil prices to fall. Concerns about tariffs eased, leading to a decline in silver prices. Copper prices declined and then rebounded. The LME copper 3M closed down 1.14% to 13,148 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,860 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 500 to 141,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory continued to increase, the bonded area inventory decreased month - on - month, and the SHFE daily warrants increased by 13,000 to 163,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 200 yuan/ton higher than the futures, and in Guangdong, it was 130 yuan/ton higher. The spot import loss of Shanghai copper narrowed to about 1,400 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,250 yuan/ton, narrowing significantly month - on - month [2] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although high copper prices continue to suppress consumption and there is still pressure on domestic inventory accumulation, the expected increase in investment by the State Grid during the "15th Five - Year Plan" provides demand support. Coupled with tight supply at the mine end and strong LME spot, copper prices are strongly supported and are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The decline in crude oil and precious metals caused aluminum prices to fall. The LME aluminum closed down 0.56% to 3,171 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,320 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 25,000 to 741,000 lots, and the futures warrants increased by 5,000 to 138,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 9,000 tons compared with Monday, and the aluminum rod social inventory increased by 17,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased, and market sentiment was still mostly wait - and - see. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China to futures widened to 130 yuan/ton, and the transaction margin improved. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 2,000 to 490,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium [4] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Against the background of a decline in the current aluminum - water ratio and high aluminum prices, there is still pressure on domestic inventory accumulation. However, low overseas inventories and strong spot prices have a positive impact on aluminum prices. Coupled with relatively stable downstream start - up in China and strong resilience in aluminum product exports, as well as the expectation of a rush to export before the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic modules, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated and corrected. The main AD2603 contract closed down 0.93% to 23,155 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract declined to 26,800 lots, and the trading volume was 20,500 lots. The warrants increased by 1,800 to 70,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 contract and the AD2603 contract was 1,220 yuan/ton, widening slightly month - on - month. The average price of ADC12 in the domestic mainstream area decreased month - on - month, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The trading activity was still average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in the domestic mainstream market increased by 1,100 to 69,300 tons, and the in - factory inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4,300 to 60,200 tons [7] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and there are continuous disturbances on the supply side, so the price is strongly supported. However, the demand is relatively average, and the price is expected to move sideways in the short term [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.98% to 17,539 yuan/ton, with a total position of 123,500 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Thursday afternoon, the LME lead 3S rose 27 to 2,083 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 173,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,325 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,125 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 200 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 26,100 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 165 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 215,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 52,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 43.33 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 104.8 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.209, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 131.15 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in the country's major markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons compared with January 12 [9] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In terms of industry status, the visible inventory of lead ore has increased slightly, the lead ore TC has remained at a low level, and the production start - up rate of primary smelting has remained high. The raw material inventory of recycled lead has further declined, and there has been no winter inventory accumulation, with the raw material level significantly lower than in previous years. The production start - up rate of recycled smelting has increased significantly. The finished product inventory of smelters has increased significantly. The production start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined. In terms of sector sentiment, the current lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro funds and industrial seat funds has increased. In the double - wide cycle, the relatively strong macro sentiment may drive the lead price to have a short - term pulse - type increase and break away from the fundamental oscillation range. The high - rising macro sentiment has driven the overall upward movement of the non - ferrous metal sector. Shanghai lead is the only basic metal that has not had a significant increase, and the net long positions of macro seats have remained high. There is a possibility that the lead price will follow the sector to make up for the increase [11] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 2.54% to 25,091 yuan/ton, with a total position of 260,900 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Thursday afternoon, the LME zinc 3S rose 85.5 to 3,305 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 228,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 25,410 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 35 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 25 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 35 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference was flat. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai area basis was 35 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 5 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,900 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 14.32 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was 15 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.091, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,265.56 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in the country's major markets was 106,500 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with January 12 [13] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In terms of industry status, the visible inventory of zinc ore has increased slightly, the import TC of zinc concentrates has declined again, the zinc smelting profit has slowly increased with the rise of zinc prices, and the industry situation has not improved significantly. In terms of sector sentiment, the non - farm payrolls data in December was lower than expected. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has reached a new low since the listing of Shanghai zinc in 2007. Since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has reached a new low since 2013. The zinc price still has a large room to make up for the increase compared with copper and aluminum. After the LME issued an announcement on January 15, it triggered market concerns about overseas delivery products. Shanghai zinc increased its position and rose, and its intraday trend was significantly stronger than other varieties in the sector. The net long positions of macro seats have remained high, and the zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for the increase in macro - attributes. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio should be observed [14] Tin - **Market Information**: On Thursday, tin prices continued to rise. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 433,000 yuan/ton at 3 pm, a 4.80% increase compared with the previous day. In terms of supply, the tin ore production in Wa State, Myanmar is gradually recovering. The production start - up rate of smelters in Yunnan has remained at a high level, with a start - up rate of 87.09% last week, basically the same as the previous week. However, due to the continuous low tin ore processing fees, enterprises have insufficient willingness to further start production. Smelters in Jiangxi are facing the dilemma of insufficient supply of recycled raw materials, and the refined tin output has continued to be at a low level. Some enterprises further reduced production slightly last week. In terms of demand, the continuous decline in tin prices has stimulated terminal industries such as electronics and solders to replenish their inventories for rigid needs, but the high prices have also suppressed some downstream purchases, resulting in market transactions mainly based on rigid demand. In terms of inventory, affected by the slight tightening on the supply side and short - term inventory replenishment on the demand side, the SMM tin ingot social inventory last week was reported at 7,478 tons, a significant decrease of 1,042 tons compared with the previous week [15] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although the current tin market demand is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, the bargaining power of downstream enterprises is limited under the situation of low inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract reference operating range is 400,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference operating range is 52,000 - 56,000 US dollars/ton [16] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 15, nickel prices showed a strong trend. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 146,750 yuan/ton, a 4.12% increase compared with the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand gradually declined. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot prices to the near - month contract was 600 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot prices was reported at 8,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at 54.54 US dollars/wet ton, a price increase of 2.17 US dollars/wet ton compared with the previous day. The arrival price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices increased significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,012.5 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 30 yuan/nickel point compared with the previous day [18] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Currently, the oversupply pressure of nickel is still relatively large, and the continuous increase in disk inventory restricts the upward space of nickel prices. However, macroscopically, the loose domestic liquidity and the Indonesian government's plan to reduce the RKAB quota support the price. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will still oscillate widely in the short term. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term Shanghai nickel price operating range refers to 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract operating range refers to 17,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) reported 157,611 yuan in the evening session, a - 1.97% decrease compared with the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 154,900 - 161,200 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 3,200 yuan (- 1.98%) compared with the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 152,600 - 158,000 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 1.86% compared with the previous day. The closing price of

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current international gold price is rising steadily, while the silver price is rising rapidly with significantly increased volatility, reflecting the setback of the Fed's independence and the supply - demand imbalance in the physical market. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, as opening new long or short positions involves high risks. The reference trading range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 980 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 19050 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.04% to 1035.98 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.40% to 23089.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4620.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 92.21 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.17%, and the US dollar index was 99.35 [2] - Trump announced not to impose tariffs on key metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium for the time being. In the short term, US silver inventories will further flow out. COMEX silver inventories decreased by 509 tons from 13989.5 tons at the beginning of this year to 13479 tons on January 15. The one - month spot lease rate dropped to 4% yesterday, alleviating the expectation of tight overseas spot supply. However, the outflow of New York silver inventories cannot change the structural shortage of silver. India's single - month imports in October last year exceeded 1700 tons, and it has greater import potential in the first quarter of this year due to new mortgage regulations [2] - Inflation data declined, supporting the market's expectation of the Fed's easing this year. The US CPI data was lower than expected. The year - on - year value of the US December CPI was 2.7%, in line with expectations and the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The year - on - year value of the US December core CPI was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7% and the same as the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [3] 2. Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: The closing price of the active COMEX gold contract was 4620.50 dollars/ounce, down 0.29%; the trading volume was 22.32 million lots, down 23.12%; the CFTC - reported open interest was 48.81 million lots, up 1.30%; the inventory was 1124 tons, down 0.23%. The closing price of LBMA gold was 4610.85 dollars/ounce, up 0.09%. The closing price of the active SHFE gold contract was 1035.20 yuan/gram, down 0.52%; the trading volume was 39.29 million lots, down 2.23%; the open interest was 34.88 million lots, up 0.07%; the inventory was 100.15 tons, unchanged. The settled funds were 57.768 billion yuan, down 0.45%. The closing price of AuT + D was 1033.92 yuan/gram, down 0.36%; the trading volume was 45.45 tons, down 31.36%; the open interest was 186.24 tons, down 2.40% [6] - Silver: The closing price of the active COMEX silver contract was 92.21 dollars/ounce, down 1.05%; the CFTC - reported open interest was 15.32 million lots, down 2.64%; the inventory was 13480 tons, down 0.23%. The closing price of LBMA silver was 91.27 dollars/ounce, up 0.19%. The closing price of the active SHFE silver contract was 22665.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.43%; the trading volume was 311.70 million lots, up 14.39%; the open interest was 74.36 million lots, up 0.69%; the inventory was 638.40 tons, up 1.54%. The settled funds were 45.504 billion yuan, up 0.25%. The closing price of AgT + D was 22684.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.36%; the trading volume was 657.20 tons, down 19.09%; the open interest was 3125.288 tons, up 1.47% [6] 3. Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and actual interest rate, the relationship between SHFE gold price and trading volume, etc. [8][11][12][16][26][29][30][31] 4. Near - and Far - Month Structures and Spreads - There are charts and data showing the near - and far - month structures of COMEX gold and silver, as well as the spreads between different markets such as SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA for gold and silver [21][22][34][37][39][48]