1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes harvesting in February and the negative impact of increased production is mostly realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, the January USDA report is neutral. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic situation. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation, the price rose in December. After reaching a high, the short - term volatility increased, and it's recommended to wait for a callback to go long [9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/2025 season. In China, soybean arrivals and inventory decreased last week, and the oil mill operation rate declined. It's advisable to wait and see in the short term [13]. - For oils and fats, the current fundamental situation is weak due to high production and low exports in palm - oil producing areas and high domestic inventories. However, the long - term outlook is optimistic, and prices may be near the bottom [17]. - For eggs, due to the late Spring Festival, the near - term contracts are strong. But considering the large supply and the possibility of delayed capacity reduction, it's advisable to short on rallies for near - term contracts. For far - term contracts, pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption. The spot price rose after the Winter Solstice, driving the futures to rebound. In the short term, the spot price is likely to support the near - term contracts. In the medium term, pay attention to the upside pressure and short on rallies. For far - term contracts, wait for a decline to go long [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the May contract was 5299 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.88% from the previous trading day. The new - sugar quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups, and processing sugar mills also changed to varying degrees. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 21 yuan/ton [2]. - In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugar exports in December were 2.913 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, and the waiting sugar volume was 1.5823 million tons [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - Currently, the raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility that the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production will be reduced after the new sugar - crushing season in Brazil starts in April this year. Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish harvesting in February, and then international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the downward space for sugar prices is limited in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see [4]. Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was strongly volatile. The closing price of the May contract was 14,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the index and the main contract was 1160 yuan/ton [6]. - The January USDA report predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season will be 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.63%. Brazil's production is expected to remain at 4.08 million tons; India's production is reduced to 5.12 million tons; and China's production is increased to 7.51 million tons [6]. - Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year and 50,000 tons month - on - month. The export volume to China was 146,000 tons. As of January 1, the cumulative export sales of US cotton in the current year were 1.5425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 239,100 tons [8]. - As of January 9, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, the same as the previous week and 7.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.57 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons year - on - year [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The January USDA report is neutral, and the recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic situation. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation, the price rose in December. After reaching a high, the short - term volatility increased. It's advisable to wait for a callback to go long [9]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fell. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2751 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day; the closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2289 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 1.08% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Dongguan and Huangpu also changed [11]. - The January USDA report predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season will be 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.4%. The production of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina also has different changes. The US export volume is slightly reduced [12]. - As of January 9, the arrival volume of domestic sample soybeans was 1.52 million tons, a decrease of 730,000 tons compared with the previous week. The port inventory was 8.03 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 49.5%, 8.12 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 930,000 tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/2025 season. In China, soybean arrivals and inventory decreased last week, and the oil mill operation rate declined. It's advisable to wait and see in the short term [13]. Oils and Fats Market Information - On Wednesday, the oils and fats futures prices continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7986 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day; the closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8748 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day; the closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 8949 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil also changed [15]. - The January USDA report estimates that the US soybean oil consumption is 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.249 million tons compared with the December estimate and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. India's total vegetable oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December was 3.05 million tons, an increase of 7.56% compared with the previous month. The production was 1.83 million tons, a decrease of 5.46% compared with the previous month. The exports were 1.32 million tons, an increase of 8.52% compared with the previous month [16]. - From January 1 - 10, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 20.49% month - on - month. As of January 9, the domestic inventory of three major oils and fats was 2.08 million tons, an increase of 0.1586 million tons year - on - year and a decrease of 0.0702 million tons compared with the previous week [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - Currently, high production and low exports in palm - oil producing areas lead to high inventory, and the domestic inventory of three major oils and fats is also at a relatively high level, so the current fundamental situation is weak. However, the long - term outlook is optimistic, and prices may be near the bottom [17]. Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was stable with some increases yesterday. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.02 yuan to 3.46 yuan/jin. The egg supply was normal, and the downstream demand was relatively normal, but some were hesitant about high - priced products. It's expected that the national egg price will be stable in most areas today with some increases [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to the late Spring Festival, the near - term contracts are strong. But considering the large supply and the possibility of delayed capacity reduction, it's advisable to short on rallies for near - term contracts. For far - term contracts, pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with some slight fluctuations. The average price in Henan rose 0.03 yuan to 12.99 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained at 12.88 yuan/kg. The breeding side was resistant to price cuts, but the poor sales of white - striped pigs by the slaughtering side restricted the price increase. It's expected that the national pig price will be mainly stable today, with slight increases in some northern areas and slight decreases in some eastern areas [21]. Strategy Viewpoint - Low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption. The spot price rose after the Winter Solstice, driving the futures to rebound. In the short term, the spot price is likely to support the near - term contracts. In the medium term, pay attention to the upside pressure and short on rallies. For far - term contracts, wait for a decline to go long [22].

昨夜美联储官员表态存在分化，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示他认为鲍威尔所面临的调 查实际上是货币政策问题，一月议息会议并为存在太大降息的必要性。特朗普派系的美联储理 事米兰则延续鸽派表态，他提出美国应当放松监管以支持美联储进一步宽松，并重申今年需要 降息 150 个基点。 通胀数据方面，昨夜公布的美国 PPI 数据超预期，美国 11 月 PPI 同比值为 3%，高于预期的 2.7%， 与前值相符，美国 11 月 PPI 环比值为 0.2%，符合预期。显示其经济情况的零售数据则具备韧 性，美国 11 月零售销售环比值为 0.6%，高于预期的 0.4%和前值的-0.1%。 【策略观点】 当前国际金价稳步上涨，而银价则加速上行，波动幅度显著放大，其充分体现了美联储独立性 的受挫和现货层面的供不应求格局。但从波动率角度来看，当前策略上建议持有在手多单，新 开仓多单或空单均存在较大风险，沪金主力合约参考运行区间 980-1100 元/克，沪银主力合约 参考运行区间 19050-25000 元/千克。 贵金属日报 2026-01-15 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, incremental funds entered the market, the margin trading scale increased significantly, and the market trading volume quickly expanded. In the long - term, policies support the capital market. In the short - term, focus on the market rhythm and adopt the strategy of buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the market's improved economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. In the first quarter, the bond market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors such as the stock market's spring rally, government bond supply, and interest rate cut expectations [7]. - For precious metals, the current international gold price is rising steadily, and the silver price is rising rapidly with significant volatility. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For example, copper prices are supported by tight supply at the mine end, aluminum prices are affected by overseas low inventory and domestic downstream demand, and nickel prices are constrained by oversupply pressure but supported by macro - factors [12][14][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the current range [32][34][38]. - For energy and chemicals, rubber can be considered with a neutral strategy, oil prices can be traded with a low - buying and high - selling strategy, and the strategies for other chemicals vary according to their fundamentals [54][56]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable with partial fluctuations, egg prices may have different trends in the near and far months, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply and demand and other factors [78][79][81]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Three departments held a symposium on new energy vehicle enterprises, Shanghai issued an action plan for high - level autonomous driving, the central bank carried out a 900 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and tax rebates were offered for housing purchases [2]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of main contracts showed different changes. The central bank carried out a 900 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's export and import data in December 2025 were positive. The central bank's net investment was 212.2 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the first quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose, and there were differences in the statements of Fed officials. US PPI and retail sales data were released [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and avoid opening new long or short positions [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The domestic equity market fluctuated, copper prices rose, LME copper inventory increased, and the import loss of Shanghai copper expanded [10]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The domestic spot market weakened, aluminum prices fluctuated, and inventory increased [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and other data were released [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose, and inventory and other data were released [16]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated, and the prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and nickel iron were stable [17]. - **Strategy**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose to the daily limit, supply and demand and inventory data changed [19][20]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate following market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed [22]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious due to the risk of a significant correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light position [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose, and inventory and other data changed [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, and it is not cost - effective to chase long positions. Consider shorting near - month contracts on rallies [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose, and inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated, and inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost and supply factors, and may strengthen further [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fluctuated, and inventory and other data changed [31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to market rumors and policy impacts [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and iron - making production rhythms [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal prices rose, and coke prices fell. Spot prices and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate in the current range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy impacts [38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices were stable, and inventory decreased. Soda ash prices rose, and inventory increased [39][41]. - **Strategy**: For glass, it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory. For soda ash, the market is weak and lacks substantial positive support [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly [42]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by market sentiment and cost factors. Pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policy impacts [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data changed [45][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be under pressure, and polysilicon prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to production plans and policy impacts [46][49]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated, and supply and demand data changed [51][52]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. If the RU2605 contract falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short strategy [54]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose, and inventory data showed accumulation [55]. - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. Adopt a low - buying and high - selling strategy and wait and see for now [56]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed, and regional spot prices and MTO profits changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Methanol has limited downward space and is suitable for buying on dips [58]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose, and regional spot prices and basis data changed [59][60]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies due to expected fundamental bearish factors [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices changed. Supply, demand, and inventory data changed [62]. - **Strategy**: It is possible to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [64]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium - term due to strong supply and weak demand [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [66]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short - term [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [68]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. Pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [69]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [70][71]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season and follow crude oil for mid - term long - buying opportunities [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [73]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips as the long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [75]. - **Strategy**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year as the supply - surplus pattern changes [76]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices were stable with partial fluctuations [78]. - **Strategy**: The short - term spot price has limited downward momentum, and the mid - term supply is large. Consider short - selling on rallies and long - buying on dips in the long - term [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with some increases [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell near - month contracts on rallies and be cautious of over - valued far - month contracts [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Protein meal prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short - term [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [84][85]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be near the bottom [86]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [87][88]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. Temporarily wait and see in the domestic market [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The 1 - month USDA report is neutral. Wait for a pullback to go long on Zhengzhou cotton [92].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the cost calculation of battery cells under the price fluctuations in the lithium carbonate industry chain [1] Group 2: Industry Price Trends - Since the second half of 2025, prices in the lithium battery industry chain have shown significant differentiation, with upstream raw materials being the core driving force for the price increase. Imported lithium concentrate increased by 231.0%, battery - grade lithium carbonate by 160.2%, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide by 147.3%. Cobalt - related raw materials also showed strong growth, with electrolytic cobalt rising 84.4% and cobalt sulfate 90.8% [3] - The price increase pressure of raw materials was transmitted to the cathode material segment, but the increase was significantly narrowed. The increases of lithium iron phosphate and lithium cobalt oxide since the second half of 2025 were 76.3% and 81.2% respectively, and the increases of ternary series precursors and cathode materials were in the range of 30% - 37%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key raw material for electrolytes, increased by over 200%. The price changes in the anode material and separator segments were limited, and the price of 8μm copper foil increased by 28.1% [3] - The price transmission in the downstream battery cell segment lagged significantly behind that of the mid - and upstream segments. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate battery cells decreased slightly by 2.5%, the energy - storage type increased by only 5.4%, and the 811 ternary battery cells increased by only 8.2% [4] Group 3: Battery Cost Changes - Referring to the average lithium price of 75,000 yuan/ton in 2025, the theoretical total cost of lithium iron phosphate battery cells was 0.30 yuan/Wh. The cost of the cathode material lithium iron phosphate was only 0.08 yuan/Wh, and the electrolyte cost was 0.03 yuan/Wh. The cost of copper foil accounted for a similar proportion to the cathode material [19] - When the lithium price rose to 150,000 yuan/ton, the total cost of battery cells increased to 0.39 yuan/Wh (+31% compared to the 2025 average). The cathode cost increased to 0.13 yuan/Wh (+67%), and the electrolyte cost increased by 76%. The contribution of the two lithium - containing main materials to the increase in the theoretical cost of lithium iron phosphate battery cells was 57.5% and 26.1% respectively, and the copper foil cost increased by 20% with a contribution of about 16% [21] - Assuming the cost of non - lithium raw materials is fixed, if the lithium carbonate price further rises to 200,000 yuan/ton or 250,000 yuan/ton, the theoretical battery cost will increase by about 9% and 16% respectively on the basis of 150,000 yuan/ton [21] Group 4: Follow - up Impact - The theoretical cost of lithium iron phosphate battery cells has risen with the recovery of lithium prices, but the adjustment of terminal battery prices lags significantly. As of January 9, the price of SMM's third - party lithium iron phosphate battery cells was only about 6% higher than the 2025 average [26] - The lithium battery industry chain may be entering a price transmission cycle driven by raw material price increases. Suzhou Dejia Energy has announced a 15% increase in battery product prices. If the upstream lithium price remains high, the demand for cost pressure transmission to the terminal will continue to increase, and more battery cell enterprises are expected to follow up with price adjustments [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The energy chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies suggest constructing option portfolios mainly with sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. [4] 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various option varieties. The volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5]. 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of various option underlying are analyzed [6]. 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - It provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various option varieties [7]. 5. Option Strategies and Recommendations 5.1 Energy Options - Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: OPEC + is expected to keep the original production suspension policy unchanged. Nigeria's crude oil + condensate production reached 1.6 million barrels per day in November 2025, up 1.3% month - on - month. The crude oil market showed a weak rebound trend [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuated below the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 450 and the support level was 400 [8]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy; for spot long - hedging strategy, construct a long collar strategy [8]. 5.2 Energy Options - LPG - **Underlying Market Analysis**: There was no significant increase in supply. The chemical demand supported the price bottom. The LPG market showed a volatile recovery trend with upper pressure [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options fluctuated around the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 4300 and the support level was 4000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy; for spot long - hedging strategy, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 5.3 Alcohol Options - Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: China's methanol production was about 2.0511 million tons with a capacity utilization rate of about 90.31%. The market showed a rebound trend with upper pressure [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuated around the historical average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2300 and the support level was 2100 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy; for spot long - hedging strategy, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 5.4 Alcohol Options - Ethylene Glycol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The polyester load was 90.8% last week. The ethylene glycol market showed a volatile recovery trend with upper pressure [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuated above the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side power. The pressure level was 3800 and the support level was 3600 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a short - volatility strategy; for spot long - hedging strategy, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 5.5 Olefin Options - PVC - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The inventory increased. The PVC market showed a rebound trend with short - side pressure [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PVC options decreased to fluctuate below the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a continuous weak market. The pressure level was 5000 and the support level was 4300 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: For directional strategy, construct a call option bull spread combination strategy; no volatility strategy; for spot long - hedging strategy, hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 5.6 Rubber Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The rubber market showed a recovery trend with lower support and upper pressure [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options gradually returned to fluctuate around the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level dropped significantly to 17000 and the support level was 14000 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy; no spot hedging strategy [12]. 5.7 Polyester Options - PTA - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The PTA load was 78.2%. The market showed a short - term strong recovery trend [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuated at a low average level. The open interest PCR was above 1.00, indicating a strong market. The pressure level was 4750 and the support level was 4400 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy; no spot hedging strategy [12]. 5.8 Alkali Options - Caustic Soda - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The average capacity utilization rate of large - scale caustic soda enterprises was 86.8%. The market showed a weak short - side trend with upper pressure [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuated at a high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2320 and the support level was 2040 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: For directional strategy, construct a bear spread combination strategy; no volatility strategy; for spot collar hedging strategy, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 5.9 Alkali Options - Soda Ash - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The soda ash inventory increased. The market showed a low - level weak - side volatile trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuated at a historically high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a short - side market. The pressure level was 1300 and the support level was 1100 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a short - volatility combination strategy; for spot long - hedging strategy, construct a long collar strategy [13]. 5.10 Urea Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The supply - demand difference decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased. The market showed a short - term weak trend with upper pressure [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuated at a low historical average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating large short - side pressure. The pressure level was 1700 and the support level was 1640 [14]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a slightly long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy; for spot hedging strategy, hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a financial options strategy morning report dated January 14, 2026 [1] - The stock market shows a bullish upward trend, and the implied volatility of financial options has dropped below the historical average [3] - For ETF options and index options, it is suitable to construct bullish seller strategies and call option bull spread combination strategies [3] Group 2: Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,138.76, down 0.64%, with a trading volume of 148.16 billion yuan [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,169.40, down 1.37%, with a trading volume of 216.94 billion yuan [4] - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 3,132.93, down 0.34%, with a trading volume of 18.89 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Option Underlying ETF Market Overview - The Shanghai 50ETF closed at 3.214, down 0.12%, with a trading volume of 9.1511 million shares and a turnover of 2.95 billion yuan [5] - The Shanghai 300ETF closed at 4.896, down 0.35%, with a trading volume of 12.7178 million shares and a turnover of 6.249 billion yuan [5] - The Shanghai 500ETF closed at 8.306, down 1.31%, with a trading volume of 5.2403 million shares and a turnover of 4.366 billion yuan [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The volume PCR and position PCR of various option varieties show different trends, reflecting the market's view on the strength of the underlying assets [6] - For example, the volume PCR of the Shanghai 50ETF option is 0.57, down 0.02, and the position PCR is 0.98, down 0.01 [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of various option underlying assets are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [8][10] - For instance, the pressure point of the Shanghai 50ETF is 3.20, and the support point is 3.10 [8] Group 6: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various option varieties is presented, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [11][12] - The weighted implied volatility of the Shanghai 50ETF option is 18.86%, down 0.09% [11] Group 7: Strategy and Recommendations - The financial options sector is divided into large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and growth stocks [13] - For each sector, specific option strategies are recommended, including directional strategies, volatility strategies, and spot long covered call strategies [14][15][16] - For example, for the Shanghai 50ETF, it is recommended to construct a call option bull spread combination strategy and a seller's bullish combination strategy [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals are showing a bullish upward trend, and a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended; the black metals are experiencing significant fluctuations, suitable for a short - volatility combination strategy; the precious metals are rebounding and rising, and a bull spread combination strategy is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different metal futures have various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2602) is 103,200, up 180 with a 0.17% increase, and its trading volume is 22.54 million lots with a change of 1.57 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of copper is 0.45 with no change, and the open interest PCR is 0.65 with no change [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of each option underlying are determined. For example, the pressure level of copper is 110,000 and the support level is 98,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each option variety is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 30.77%, and the weighted implied volatility is 37.35% with a - 0.33% change [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fundamental aspects show an increase in inventory. The market trend is bullish with high - level fluctuations. Option strategies include a bull spread combination strategy for direction, a short - volatility seller's option combination strategy for volatility, and a spot long - hedging strategy [8]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory has increased. The market is in a bullish upward trend. Option strategies involve a bull spread combination strategy, a short - call and put option combination strategy for volatility, and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased slightly. The market shows a bullish upward trend with pressure. Option strategies include a short - call and put option combination strategy for volatility and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Nickel**: The supply and demand are gradually balanced. The market is short - term bullish. Option strategies involve a short - call and put option combination strategy for volatility and a spot covered - call strategy [11]. - **Tin**: The inventory has decreased, and the market is in a bullish upward trend. Option strategies include a bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory has increased slightly. The market shows a bullish acceleration trend. Option strategies involve a bull spread combination strategy, a short - call and put option combination strategy for volatility, and a spot long - hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: The BCOM index rebalancing may lead to a reduction in long positions. The market shows significant fluctuations in the bullish trend. Option strategies include a bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility option seller's combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [13]. 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the inventory has increased. The market shows a weak rebound with pressure. Option strategies involve a short - call and put option combination strategy for volatility and a spot long - covered - call strategy [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory has increased, and the market shows a bullish oscillation. Option strategies include a short - call and put option combination strategy for volatility and a spot long - collar strategy [14]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: The production of manganese silicon has decreased slightly, and the inventory is high. The market shows a weak bearish and then rebound trend. Option strategies involve a short - volatility strategy for manganese silicon and a short - call and put option combination strategy for ferrosilicon, along with corresponding spot hedging strategies [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inventory has increased. The market shows a weak bearish and then rebound trend. Option strategies involve a short - call and put option combination strategy for volatility and a spot long - hedging strategy [15]. - **Glass**: The inventory has decreased. The market shows an oversold rebound and then a weak consolidation trend. Option strategies involve a short - call and put option combination strategy for volatility and a spot long - collar strategy [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a weak and volatile state, while agricultural by - products and soft commodities have their own characteristics. For example, sugar shows a slight fluctuation, cotton is in a strong consolidation, and corn and starch in the cereal category are in a narrow - range bullish consolidation. The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open - interest changes of various agricultural product option underlying futures contracts, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2603) is 4,295, with a decrease of 19 and a decline rate of 0.44%, a trading volume of 2.51 million lots, and an open interest of 5.60 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - The report presents the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open - interest change, trading - volume PCR, volume - PCR change, open - interest PCR, and open - interest PCR change of various agricultural product options. For instance, the trading - volume PCR of soybean No.1 option is 0.33, with a change of - 0.32, and the open - interest PCR is 0.91, with a change of 0.01 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - It shows the underlying contracts, at - the - money strike prices, pressure points, pressure - point offsets, support points, support - point offsets, maximum call - option open interests, and maximum put - option open interests of various agricultural product options. For example, the at - the - money strike price of soybean No.1 (A2603) is 4,300, the pressure point is 4,500, and the support point is 4,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted - implied - volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call - option implied volatility, put - option implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and implied - historical volatility difference of various agricultural product options. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 option is 13.395, and the weighted implied volatility is 15.46, with a change of 0.45 [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options**: - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamental situation shows that from January 5th to January 9th, the cumulative large - order sales volume of US soybeans to China was about 666,000 tons. The market trend is a short - term bullish rebound with pressure above. The implied volatility of the option is around the historical average. The open - interest PCR is around 0.90, indicating a volatile market. The pressure point is 4,200, and the support point is 4,000. The recommended strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The average daily提货量 of major oil mills decreased slightly week - on - week, and the basis also decreased slightly. The market shows an oversold rebound. The implied volatility of the option is slightly below the historical average. The open - interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a volatile market. The pressure point is 3,100, and the support point is 3,050. Recommended strategies are similar to those of soybean No.1 [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory in Malaysia in December is expected to exceed 3 million tons, suppressing the rebound of the oil sector. The market shows a rebound with pressure above. The implied volatility of the option is slightly below the historical average. The open - interest PCR is around 1.00, indicating a volatile market. The pressure point is 9,000, and the support point is 8,200. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanuts**: The market price of peanut oil is stable, but the peak - season demand is lower than expected. The market shows a short - term bullish rise followed by a rapid decline. The implied volatility of the option is at a relatively high historical level. The open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating pressure above. The pressure point is 9,000, and the support point is 7,700. The recommended strategy is a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Agricultural By - product Options**: - **Hogs**: The average slaughter weight has increased slightly. The market shows an oversold rebound under a weak bearish trend. The implied volatility of the option is at the historical average. The open - interest PCR is below 0.50, indicating a weak market. The pressure point is 13,000, and the support point is 11,000. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered - call strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The market shows a rebound with pressure above. The implied volatility of the option is at a relatively high level. The open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure point is 3,150, and the support point is 3,100. Recommended strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy [11]. - **Apples**: The total sales volume has decreased significantly compared with last year. The market shows a continuous warming - up and high - level volatility with pressure above. The implied volatility of the option is slightly above the historical average. The open - interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating support below. The pressure point is 10,600, and the support point is 8,500. Recommended strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option selling combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Red Dates**: The raw - material purchase in Xinjiang is almost completed. The market shows a weak bearish trend with pressure above. The implied volatility of the option is slightly above the historical average. The open - interest PCR is below 0.50, indicating a weak market. The pressure point is 9,800, and the support point is 9,000. Recommended strategies include constructing a bearish wide - straddle option selling combination strategy and a covered - call strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Soft Commodity Options**: - **Sugar**: The domestic processing cost is high, and the external market shows signs of bottoming out. The market shows a weak bearish oversold rebound with pressure above. The implied volatility of the option is at a relatively low historical level. The open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure point is 5,500, and the support point is 5,000. Recommended strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton inventory has increased. The market shows a short - term bullish rise. The implied volatility of the option is at a relatively low level. The open - interest PCR is above 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure point is 15,200, and the support point is 14,000. The recommended strategy is a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cereal Options**: - **Corn**: The inventory in northern ports has not formed a significant accumulation. The market shows a rebound with support below. The implied volatility of the option is at a relatively low historical level. The open - interest PCR is above 0.60, indicating a strengthening market. The pressure point is 2,140, and the support point is 2,000. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply tightness and LME spot strength, with prices expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][3]. - The aluminum market has positive drivers from overseas low - inventory and strong spot supply - demand, and is expected to remain relatively strong [4][6]. - The casting aluminum alloy price is supported by cost and supply disturbances, and is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [8]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, with increased short - term volatility [10][12]. - The zinc price is also expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment, with potential for a significant price increase compared to copper and aluminum [13]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference, and it's recommended to wait and see [14][15]. - The nickel price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, and short - term waiting is recommended [16]. - The lithium carbonate price has a high risk of correction, and it's recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach [18][19]. - For alumina, it's recommended to wait and see, and consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [21][22]. - The stainless steel price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The LME copper 3M fell slightly by 0.12% to $13,156 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 103,540 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory increased by 4,325 tons to 141,550 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 122,000 tons [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite high copper prices suppressing consumption and inventory accumulation pressure in China, the tight supply at the mine end and strong LME spot support copper prices. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 102,000 - 105,200 yuan per ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,900 - $13,400 per ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum closed slightly up 0.16% at $3,196 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,780 yuan per ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 21,000 to 771,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,000 to 101,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 to 494,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With weak US inflation data, the market sentiment is slightly positive. Although there is inventory accumulation pressure in China, overseas factors and domestic downstream start - up and export expectations are positive for aluminum prices. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,400 - 25,000 yuan per ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,160 - $3,230 per ton [6]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the main casting aluminum alloy contract AD2603 fell 0.75% to 23,165 yuan per ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 27,600 lots, with a trading volume of 31,300 lots. Warehouse receipts decreased by 400 to 68,800 tons. The domestic aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 200 to 43,900 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supported by cost and supply disturbances, and with average demand, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.66% to 17,348 yuan per ton, and the LME lead 3S fell $5.5 to $2,054 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,175 yuan per ton. SHFE lead futures inventory was 21,000 tons, and LME lead inventory was 221,500 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment. The current price is near the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, and short - term volatility will increase [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.45% to 24,275 yuan per ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose $21 to $3,202.5 per ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,330 yuan per ton. SHFE zinc futures inventory was 33,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 106,800 tons [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment. It has a large potential for price increase compared to copper and aluminum [13]. Tin - **Market Information**: The SHFE tin main contract rose 0.64% to 379,330 yuan per ton. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, but the willingness to start work in Yunnan is insufficient, and Jiangxi's production is low. The SMM tin ingot social inventory decreased by 1,042 tons to 7,478 tons last week [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, the price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference. It's recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 310,000 - 370,000 yuan per ton, and for overseas LME tin is $43,000 - $47,000 per ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The SHFE nickel main contract fell 3.99% to 138,450 yuan per ton. The spot premium of various brands was strong. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price was also stable [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is still a large surplus pressure on nickel. The increase in inventory restricts price increases, but domestic liquidity support exists. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Short - term waiting is recommended. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,500 - $19,000 per ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 6.78% to 163,427 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed up 7% at 166,980 yuan [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is dominated by bullish sentiment, but there is a high risk of correction. It's recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 161,600 - 174,000 yuan per ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell 2.86% to 2,772 yuan per ton. The Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan to 2,590 yuan per ton, at a discount to the main contract. Overseas FOB price was stable at $308 per ton, with an import loss of 84 yuan per ton. Futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,400 to 166,600 tons [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Ore prices are expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and there are difficulties in continuous rebound. It's recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,450 - 2,950 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13,790 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. Spot prices in some markets increased slightly. Raw material prices rose, and social inventory decreased by 2.97% to 948,300 tons [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. With stable cost support, low supply, and continuous inventory reduction, the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The black series is still in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the "dual - carbon" policy, and its impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is expected to enter the off - season, and after the resumption of iron - making, the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and iron - making production [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and the cost - push problem of manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply - contraction issue for ferrosilicon [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, the commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short term [16]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [19]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. - For glass, the price is boosted by production line cold - repair and fuel - cost increase, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure persists, the demand is weak, and the overall pattern remains weak [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3158 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 55933 tons, a net increase of 1512 tons. The main contract positions were 1.6879 million lots, a net decrease of 38760 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3303 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (- 0.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 173103 tons, a net increase of 60866 tons. The main contract positions were 1.4403 million lots, a net increase of 12752 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The output of rebar increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to market rumors and information screening [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 819.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.36% (- 3.00), and the positions changed by - 1527 lots to 653300 lots. The weighted positions were 989800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.83 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron - ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipment from Brazil decreased significantly, and the shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP decreased. The shipment from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrival volume continued to increase [5]. - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output was 229.5 tons, continuing to rise. The blast - furnace utilization rate in some areas recovered, and the steel - mill profitability decreased slightly [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel - mill imported - ore inventory increased but remained at a low level [5]. - Outlook: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel - mill restocking and iron - making production [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 13, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.24% at 5916 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 24 yuan/ton [8]. - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.28% at 5682 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - Market sentiment: The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The ferrosilicon showed relative strength due to rumors but then gave up the gains [9]. - Fundamental analysis: The supply - demand structure of manganese silicon is loose, with high inventory and weak downstream demand, but these factors are mostly priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10]. - Future drivers: The market direction of the black sector and the overall market sentiment, as well as the cost - push problem of manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply - contraction issue for ferrosilicon [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On January 13, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 3.80% at 1191.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1525.3 yuan/ton, with a basis of 143 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 1.41% at 1745.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1490 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton [12]. Strategy Views - Previous drivers: The bullish commodity - market atmosphere and the news of coking - coal production - capacity reduction [15]. - Outlook: The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short term [16]. Industrial Silicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8635 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.37% (- 120). The weighted positions changed by + 3755 lots to 378736 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 565 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Supply: The production in December was stable, the furnace - opening number in the southwest decreased to a low level, and the supply improvement was limited [19]. - Demand: The polysilicon production in January continued to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon was weak. The demand from the organic - silicon industry was relatively stable [19]. - Outlook: It is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [19]. Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 49005 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.98% (- 990). The weighted positions changed by - 2302 lots to 88766 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 54.25 yuan/kg, and the basis was 5745 yuan/ton [20]. Strategy Views - Market sentiment: The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustment led to price weakness [21]. - Fundamental analysis: The spot price increased, but downstream hesitation persisted. The supply pressure may ease if the production - cut plan of a leading enterprise is implemented [22]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 4.11% (- 47). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 134.80 million cases (- 2.37%) [24]. - Strategy Views: The glass daily melting volume decreased, and the fuel - cost increase boosted the price. However, the terminal demand was weak, and the high inventory restricted the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 2.18% (- 27). The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 16.44 million tons [25]. - Strategy Views: The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall pattern remained weak [26].