Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. There may be a reversal in the inventory situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a callback - buying strategy [6][9]. - **Sugar**: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major producing countries, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell high and close positions when prices fall [11][12]. - **Cotton**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][15]. - **Eggs**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the market is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upside pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [16][17]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or do reverse spreads [19][20]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans were closed for a holiday. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of imported soybeans remained unchanged. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were mostly flat, with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, and last week's was 2.3344 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days decreased by 0.25 days to 7.98 days. Port soybean inventories decreased last week but were still high year - on - year. Soybean meal inventories rose above 1 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased compared with the previous month, while production increased. In September, Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil, lower than the same period last year and August this year. On Thursday, domestic oils continued to rebound, and foreign capital reduced short positions in palm oil [6]. - **Strategy**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. There may be a reversal in the inventory situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a callback - buying strategy [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,403 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.45%. Spot prices were stable. The new sugar - making season is expected to see a global supply surplus of 3.7 million tons, and Brazil's sugar production in the first half of November is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year [11]. - **Strategy**: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major producing countries, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell high and close positions when prices fall [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the January contract was 13,640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11%. The spot price index rose. Spinning mill operating rates decreased slightly, and commercial cotton inventories increased year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase by 520,000 tons [14]. - **Strategy**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.03 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream digestion was average, with some improvement in local areas [16]. - **Strategy**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the market is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upside pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mostly fell, with slight increases in some areas. Market demand increased slowly, and supply was abundant. Slaughter enterprises still had the intention to suppress prices [19]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or do reverse spreads [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc. [9] - Strategies suggest constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2601 is 452, with a price increase of 7 and a price change rate of 1.46%. [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different energy - chemical options. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.69, with a change of - 0.35, and the open interest PCR is 0.74, with a change of - 0.02. [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interests, and maximum put option open interests of various energy - chemical options are provided. For example, the pressure point of crude oil options is 540, and the support point is 430. [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report details the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of different energy - chemical options. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 25.395%. [7] 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions for Different Options 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil, LPG) - **Crude Oil**: Analyzes the fundamentals and market trends. Suggests directional strategies like constructing a bearish spread of put options, volatility strategies of selling a combination of call and put options, and spot long - hedging strategies like the long collar strategy. [8] - **LPG**: Analyzes the fundamentals and market trends. Proposes volatility strategies of selling a neutral combination of call and put options and spot long - hedging strategies like the long collar strategy. [10] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: Analyzes the fundamentals and market trends. Suggests directional strategies of constructing a bearish spread of put options, volatility strategies of selling a bearish combination of call and put options, and spot long - hedging strategies like the long collar strategy. [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Analyzes the fundamentals and market trends. Proposes directional strategies of constructing a bearish spread of put options, volatility strategies of shorting volatility, and spot long - hedging strategies. [11] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, etc.) - **Polypropylene**: Analyzes the fundamentals and market trends. Suggests directional strategies of constructing a bearish spread of put options and spot long - hedging strategies. [11] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options (Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber**: Analyzes the fundamentals and market trends. Proposes volatility strategies of selling a bearish combination of call and put options. [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: No specific content on strategy suggestions is provided in the summary part. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options (PTA) - **PTA**: Analyzes the fundamentals and market trends. Suggests volatility strategies of selling a neutral combination of call and put options. [12] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Urea) - **Caustic Soda**: Analyzes the fundamentals and market trends. Suggests directional strategies of constructing a bearish spread and spot long - hedging strategies like the long collar strategy. [13] - **Soda Ash**: Analyzes the fundamentals and market trends. Proposes directional strategies of constructing a bearish spread, volatility strategies of shorting volatility, and spot long - hedging strategies like the long collar strategy. [13] - **Urea**: Analyzes the fundamentals and market trends. Suggests volatility strategies of selling a neutral combination of call and put options and spot long - hedging strategies. [14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility seller strategy is recommended as they are trending upwards; for the black metals sector, a short - volatility portfolio strategy is suitable due to large - scale fluctuations; for precious metals, a bull spread portfolio strategy is suggested as they are rebounding [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The table shows the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2601) is 87,050, with a decline of 20 and a decrease rate of 0.02%. The trading volume is 9.53 million lots, and the open interest is 21.07 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: This indicator describes the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of copper is 0.43, with a change of 0.02, and the open interest PCR is 0.81, with a change of - 0.00 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: Determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of copper is 90,000, and the support point is 84,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of options reflects the market's expectation of future price fluctuations. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 12.62%, and the weighted implied volatility is 15.85%, with a change of 0.60 [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [7]. - **Aluminum**: A bull spread portfolio strategy for call options, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy are suggested [9]. - **Zinc**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are proposed [9]. - **Nickel**: A short - volatility option combination strategy with a short bias and a spot covered - call strategy are recommended [10]. - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are suggested [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A short - volatility option combination strategy with a long bias and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [11]. - **Precious Metals (Silver)** - A bull spread portfolio strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller combination strategy with a long bias, and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [12]. - **Black Metals** - **Rebar**: A short - volatility option combination strategy with a short bias and a spot covered - call strategy are recommended [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A short - volatility option combination strategy with a short bias and a spot long - collar strategy are suggested [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon)**: A short - volatility strategy is recommended, and no spot hedging strategy is provided [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [14]. - **Glass**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are suggested [15].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve significantly. With the current continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view remains bearish. However, as domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, the difficulty of long - short game has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. The strategy suggests short - selling on rallies and closing positions opportunistically after price drops [3][13]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Global and Domestic Sugar Production Forecast - **Domestic**: In the 2025/26 sugar season, the estimated total national sugar production is 1160 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44 million tons. Specifically, Guangxi's sugar production is expected to be 680 million tons, an increase of 30 million tons; Yunnan's is 260 million tons, an increase of 18 million tons; Guangdong's is 60 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons; Inner Mongolia's is 70 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons; and Xinjiang's is 76 million tons, a decrease of 5.5 million tons [5]. - **India**: The estimated total sugar production (including sugar - to - ethanol production) in the 2025/26 sugar season is 3435 million tons, with a net sugar production of 3095 million tons after 340 million tons are used for ethanol production [6]. - **Thailand**: The estimated sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season is 1100 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 95 million tons [6]. - **Brazil**: As of the second half of October in the 2025/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region is 3808.5 million tons, an increase of 61.1 million tons compared to the same period last year [6]. - **Global**: The ISO predicts that in the 2025/26 sugar season, global sugar production will grow by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons, while consumption will only grow by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 1.63 million tons, compared to a deficit of 2.92 million tons in the 2024/25 sugar season [7]. Sugar Price Analysis - Due to stricter import controls on syrups and premixes since mid - October and the continuous decline of the external market price, the domestic out - of - quota spot import profit reached over 900 yuan/ton in early November. Subsequently, with the start of the new sugar season in Guangxi and the increase in sugar imports in October, short - term supply increased, market sentiment weakened, and Zhengzhou sugar prices fell continuously. Recently, the external market price has stopped falling, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is at a relatively low level, making further downward betting less cost - effective [13]. - The market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere sugar - producing countries that are starting to crush. Unless the actual production of major Northern Hemisphere producers is significantly lower than the estimated value, the upward space for international sugar prices will be under pressure in the short term [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main theme. The medium - to long - term approach for the index is to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is currently in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, maintaining an overall oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and the impact of liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metal prices are expected to oscillate. Some metals have strong price support due to supply - demand relationships, while others may face downward pressure due to factors such as over - supply or weak demand [12][14][16]. - The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are likely to continue weak oscillations in the short term, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand later [33]. - The prices of most energy - chemical products are expected to oscillate. Some products may have short - term upward or downward trends due to factors such as supply - demand changes and cost fluctuations [54][55]. - The prices of most agricultural products are expected to oscillate. Some products may face downward pressure due to over - supply, while others may have short - term upward potential due to factors such as production reduction expectations [73][82]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: There are over 150 humanoid robot enterprises in China, and the NDRC encourages the development of new energy storage and hydrogen energy technologies. OPEC+ may reach an agreement on a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum production capacity. JPMorgan Chase has upgraded the rating of A - shares to "overweight" [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After recent declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. The long - term approach is to go long on dips, with technology growth as the main theme [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had positive changes. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The NDRC has arranged special treasury bonds for "two major" construction projects. The central bank conducted a net injection of 564 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations on Thursday [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In October, the economic data on both the supply and demand sides were weak. The growth rate of social financing may remain weak at the end of the year. The central bank is maintaining an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the fourth quarter [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose, and COMEX gold and silver prices also had certain trends. The market is mainly concerned about the Fed's subsequent personnel changes and monetary policy expectations. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in December is 86.9% [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has rebounded. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Geopolitical concerns have resurfaced, and the RMB has slightly depreciated. LME copper prices have declined, and domestic copper inventories have decreased. The import loss of domestic copper has widened [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The probability of an interest - rate cut by the Fed in December is high, but there are still uncertainties in the geopolitical situation. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 86,200 - 87,800 yuan/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have corrected. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories have decreased, and LME aluminum inventories have also decreased [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low, and the price support is strong. Although the downstream is entering the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The price may strengthen after adjustment. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,400 - 21,700 yuan/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. Domestic and LME zinc inventories have certain trends, and the import loss of zinc ingots is relatively large [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc ore imports declined significantly in October, and the supply of zinc ore is tight during the winter stockpiling period of smelters. However, it is expected to loosen marginally after stockpiling. The zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index declined. Domestic and LME lead inventories have certain trends, and the import profit of lead ingots is relatively small [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing, and the export of lead - acid batteries is declining. Lead prices are expected to decline at a slower pace in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The prices of nickel ore and nickel pig iron have certain trends, and the supply of refined nickel raw materials is expected to increase [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provides support for tin prices. The inventory has increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance. It is expected that tin prices will oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 280,000 - 310,000 yuan/ton [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium declined. The price of the LC2605 contract also declined [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic production has declined, and inventory has decreased. There are differences in the market's expectations for next year's demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use options. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2605 contract is 91,200 - 99,600 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly. The price of overseas ore has declined, and the inventory of futures has decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of overseas ore is expected to increase, and the alumina smelting industry has an over - supply situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract declined. The prices of spot and raw materials remained stable, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market price is stable, and the sales of 300 - series stainless steel are relatively good. However, the consumption in related fields is weak, and the inventory removal speed is slow. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory of domestic aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the inventory in factories increased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The prices of spot rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of rebar have both declined, and the inventory has been continuously removed. The production of hot - rolled coils has increased, and the inventory removal is slow. The export of steel to South Korea may be affected. Steel prices are expected to continue weak oscillations in the short term [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract rose slightly. The price of spot iron ore and the basis have certain trends [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas shipment of iron ore has decreased, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. The inventory of iron ore is relatively high, and the price is expected to oscillate. If the molten iron output continues to decline, the ore price may decline in the short term [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract rose slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda - ash main contract rose slightly, and the inventory decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is increasing, and the supply is expected to shrink. The demand for glass is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The supply of soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to remain weak [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The prices of spot manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon also decreased [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The risk appetite of the market has weakened, and the prices of ferrous alloys have declined. However, the expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed in December has rebounded. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound [40][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial - silicon futures rose slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price of polysilicon futures declined, and the inventory increased [43][45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of industrial silicon is declining, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate. The production of polysilicon is declining, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [44][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The flood in Thailand's rubber - producing areas is a positive factor, but the subsequent rainfall has decreased. The inventory of exchange - traded RU is low [48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. It is recommended to partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude - oil and refined - oil futures rose. The US EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and some refined oils has increased [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the supply of OPEC has not increased significantly. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol futures rose, and the basis decreased. The price of spot methanol also increased [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The potential positive factors of Iran's plant shutdown have been realized, and the market has stopped falling and stabilized. The supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to oscillate after the positive factors are realized [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea futures rose, and the basis decreased. The price of spot urea also increased [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of urea is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. The supply is relatively high, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips at low prices [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure - benzene futures remained unchanged, and the basis increased. The price of styrene futures declined, and the basis decreased [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC futures rose, and the basis decreased. The cost of PVC remained stable, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PVC is in an over - supply situation, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene - glycol futures declined, and the basis decreased. The inventory of ethylene glycol remained unchanged [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decline in December, and the inventory accumulation may slow down. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA futures declined, and the basis decreased. The inventory of PTA decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to remain high in the short term. The processing fee of PTA has limited upward space, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [64]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of PX futures declined, and the basis increased. The inventory of PX increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load of PX remains high, and the inventory is difficult to continuously remove. The valuation of PX is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE futures declined, and the basis increased. The inventory of PE decreased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The valuation of PE has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. It is recommended to short the LL - 1 - 5 spread on rallies [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP futures rose, and the basis decreased. The inventory of PP decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand is seasonally oscillating. The inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported after the supply - over - supply situation changes in the first quarter of next year [70]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price mainly declined. The market demand is increasing slowly, and the supply of hogs is abundant [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The theoretical supply of hogs is still large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse - spread trading [73]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion speed is average [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg - price futures have rebounded in advance, but the spot price has not followed up as expected. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct reverse - spread trading in the near - term and far - term contracts, and short on rallies in the medium term [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean market was closed due to a holiday. The domestic soybean - meal price was stable, and the inventory increased [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global supply of soybeans has decreased, and the domestic soybean inventory is at a high level. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate [77]. Oils - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and the production has increased. The domestic oil price rebounded [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The over - supply of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [79][80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated strongly. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic sugar price is at a relatively low level [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [82]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated narrowly. The downstream spinning - mill operating rate decreased, and the global cotton production increased [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for cotton is not too bad after the peak season, and the market has digested the negative impact of high yields. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current focus of the precious metals market is the subsequent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and the resulting monetary policy expectations, making gold and silver prices prone to rise and difficult to fall [1] - If Hassett is officially nominated as the new Federal Reserve Chairman next month, the market will further trade the impact of the weakened independence and influence of the Federal Reserve on the US dollar's credit [2] - The expectation of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded after the speeches of key voting members of the Fed, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. The further driving force will be concentrated in December. It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy [3] 3. Summary According to Related Contents Market Quotes - On November 28, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 0.02% to 946.90 yuan/g, Shanghai silver rose 1.29% to 12,490.00 yuan/kg; COMEX gold was reported at 4,194.00 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was reported at 53.82 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.53 [1] Federal Reserve Personnel and Policy Expectations - Foreign media reported that Hassett, the current director of the White House Economic Council, is the most popular candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman. His appointment would bring Trump's intentions into the Federal Reserve, greatly impacting its monetary policy independence. He said this month that he would cut interest rates if he were the Fed Chairman now [2] - Trump's policy team members, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and current Fed Governor Milan, expressed the need for the Fed to conduct "natural balance - sheet reduction" while buying US Treasuries, aiming to weaken the Fed's influence on the economy [2] - The CME interest - rate observer shows that the market expects an 86.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the Fed's December meeting and a 13.1% probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged [2] Strategy Suggestions - The expectation of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. The further driving force will be concentrated in December. On December 10, the Fed will hold its last interest - rate meeting of the year and release an economic outlook report. Trump will probably complete the selection of the new Fed Chairman in late December [3] - It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 917 - 967 yuan/g, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 12,036 - 13,000 yuan/kg [3] Data Summary - For gold on November 27, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX gold's closing price, trading volume, and open interest increased, while inventory decreased slightly; LBMA gold's closing price increased; SHFE gold's closing price, open interest, and precipitation funds increased, while trading volume decreased; AuT + D's closing price and open interest increased, while trading volume decreased [5] - For silver on November 27, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX silver's closing price, open interest, and trading volume increased, while inventory decreased; LBMA silver's closing price increased; SHFE silver's closing price, open interest, trading volume, and precipitation funds increased, while inventory increased; AgT + D's closing price and trading volume increased, while open interest decreased [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [2]. - For methanol, with the potential bullish factors from Iranian plant shutdowns materializing, the market has stopped falling and stabilized. However, high supply will limit further upside, and the market is expected to turn to a sideways adjustment after the bullish factors are exhausted [3]. - For urea, the price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply remaining high and demand improving, the downside is limited, and it's recommended to consider buying on dips at low prices [5][7]. - For rubber, a bullish short - term trading approach is suggested, and partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [8]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's still difficult to support the current supply - demand imbalance. Medium - term short - selling opportunities are worth attention [11]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [15]. - For polyethylene, the PE valuation has limited downside, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the off - season, the long - term contradiction has shifted, and it's advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [18]. - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [20]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. - For PTA, with the stabilization and repair of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. The load may remain high in the short term, but there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak. The inventory build - up may slow down in the short term, but it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [27]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.08%, to 447.60 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 20.00 yuan/ton, or 0.82%, to 2471.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 30.00 yuan/ton, or 1.00%, to 3033.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.77 million barrels to 426.93 million barrels, a 0.65% increase [1][5][6]. - **Strategy**: A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The price in Taicang increased by 17, in Lunan by 15, and remained flat in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 20 yuan to 2114 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9. The 1 - 5 spread was + 13, at - 94 [2]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to turn to a sideways adjustment after the bullish factors are exhausted, and waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The price in Shandong increased by 10, in Henan by 20, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 14 yuan to 1668 yuan, with a basis of - 38. The 1 - 5 spread was + 5, at - 59 [5]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range, and buying on dips at low prices is recommended [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Thailand is experiencing floods, and rubber prices have rebounded. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber is 14550 (+50) yuan, STR20 is reported at 1820 (0) dollars, and STR20 mixed is 1810 (0) dollars. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and cis - polybutadiene in North China remained unchanged [7]. - **Strategy**: A bullish short - term trading approach is suggested, and partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [8]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 4517 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 is 4450 (+10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 67 (-18) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread is - 281 (+12) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, the overall operating rate was 78.8%, a 0.3% increase, and downstream demand decreased [10]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, and medium - term short - selling opportunities are worth attention [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene fell, and the futures price also declined, with the basis weakening. The BZN spread rose, and the non - integrated plant profit of styrene decreased. The supply side's operating rate declined, and the port inventory increased, while the demand side's overall operating rate rose [13][14]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract's closing price was 6699 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, the basis strengthened, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly, and the LL1 - 5 spread narrowed [17]. - **Strategy**: The PE valuation has limited downside, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the off - season, the long - term contradiction has shifted, and it's advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract's closing price was 6295 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, the basis weakened, the upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly, and the LL - PP spread narrowed [19]. - **Strategy**: In a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [20]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract fell 56 yuan to 6718 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 826 dollars. The basis increased, and the 1 - 3 spread decreased. The operating rate in China and Asia increased, some plants restarted, PTA's operating rate rose, and imports from South Korea to China increased. The inventory increased in September [21]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 56 yuan to 4632 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4610 yuan. The basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased. The PTA operating rate increased, the downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: With the stabilization and repair of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. The load may remain high in the short term, but there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 23 yuan to 3873 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 4 yuan to 3900 yuan. The basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged. The supply - side operating rate increased, the downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the port inventory remained flat [25]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand outlook is weak. The inventory build - up may slow down in the short term, but it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all in this state [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has decreased but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish - biased seller strategy and a call option bull spread combination strategy; for index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish - biased seller strategy, a call option bull spread combination strategy, and an arbitrage strategy of long synthetic futures options and short futures [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Market Important Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,864.18, down 5.84 points or 0.15%, with a trading volume of 701 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.8 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,907.83, up 130.52 points or 1.02%, with a trading volume of 1082.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 7 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2,971.80, up 3.60 points or 0.12%, with a trading volume of 97.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 800 million yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,517.63, up 27.22 points or 0.61%, with a trading volume of 427.4 billion yuan, an increase of 15.8 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 6,965.05, up 10.44 points or 0.15%, with a trading volume of 274.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.3 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,248.45, down 1.50 points or 0.02%, with a trading volume of 377 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option - underlying ETF Market Overview - Multiple ETFs are involved, such as the Shanghai 50 ETF, which closed at 3.114, up 0.004 or 0.13%, with a trading volume of 4.6559 million shares, an increase of 4.5989 million shares, and a trading value of 1.456 billion yuan, a decrease of 316 million yuan [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and position PCR data. For example, the Shanghai 50 ETF option has a trading volume of 69.21 million contracts, a decrease of 23.59 million contracts, a position of 147.66 million contracts, an increase of 0.30 million contracts, a trading volume PCR of 0.90, an increase of 0.02, and a position PCR of 0.82, an increase of 0.03 [6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - For each option variety, the pressure and support points are analyzed. For instance, the Shanghai 50 ETF has a pressure point of 3.20 and a support point of 3.10 [8]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different implied volatility data. For example, the Shanghai 50 ETF option has a flat - value implied volatility of 15.82%, a weighted implied volatility of 13.46%, a decrease of 0.60%, an annual average of 16.07%, a call implied volatility of 13.38%, and a put implied volatility of 13.56% [11]. 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions - The financial option sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. Different sectors and varieties have corresponding option strategies [13]. - For example, for the Shanghai 50 ETF in the financial stock sector, the directional strategy is none, and the volatility strategy is to construct a seller - neutral combination strategy to obtain time - value income [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: With dovish Fed statements and reduced geopolitical risks, along with tight copper raw - material supply and strong downstream demand, copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 86,400 - 88,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,850 - 11,100 dollars/ton [5]. - **Aluminum**: Supported by low global aluminum ingot inventories and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are likely to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,450 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,820 - 2,890 dollars/ton [8]. - **Lead**: With increasing lead supply and weakening exports of lead - acid batteries, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10]. - **Zinc**: Despite short - term tightness in zinc ore due to winter stockpiling, the zinc industry remains in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal alleviation of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range for the domestic main contract being 280,000 - 310,000 yuan/ton and for LME tin being 37,000 - 39,000 dollars/ton [14]. - **Nickel**: With strong supply pressure and weak demand, nickel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish, and the reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to the divergence between improving fundamentals and concerns about off - season demand, along with large price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range for the GFEX lithium carbonate 2605 contract being 93,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton [21]. - **Alumina**: With the recovery of overseas ore shipments and over - capacity in the smelting end, but prices approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [24]. - **Stainless Steel**: Although the spot market has seen a slight price increase and improved trading, due to weak demand in related fields, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by cost and supply - side policies, but with average demand, its price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [29]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight US stocks rose, the offshore RMB strengthened, and copper prices oscillated upwards. LME copper inventory decreased by 75 tons to 156,500 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 40,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to less than 800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: With dovish Fed statements, reduced geopolitical risks, tight copper raw - material supply, and strong downstream demand, copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Supported by overseas supply disruption news, aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 542,000 tons, and domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline [7]. - **Strategy**: With low global aluminum ingot inventories and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are likely to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.13% to 17,063 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 0.5 to 1,985.5 dollars/ton. Domestic lead ingot inventories rose from a low level, and LME lead inventories increased [9]. - **Strategy**: With increasing lead supply and weakening exports of lead - acid batteries, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.03% to 22,362 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 2 to 3,007.5 dollars/ton. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Despite short - term tightness in zinc ore due to winter stockpiling, the zinc industry remains in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 26, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.89% to 298,500 yuan/ton. Tin smelter production in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, but raw - material supply was tight. Tin demand in emerging fields provided support, and social inventory increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal alleviation of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded. The SHFE nickel main contract rose 0.95% to 117,260 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel - iron prices continued to fall [16]. - **Strategy**: With strong supply pressure and weak demand, nickel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose 2.50% to 94,469 yuan. The LC2605 contract fell 1.03% to 96,340 yuan [20]. - **Strategy**: Due to the divergence between improving fundamentals and concerns about off - season demand, along with large price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 26, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.22% to 2,747 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.34 to 257,900 tons [23]. - **Strategy**: With the recovery of overseas ore shipments and over - capacity in the smelting end, but prices approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract rose 0.40% to 12,455 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some markets increased, and social inventory decreased to 1.0717 million tons [26]. - **Strategy**: Although the spot market has seen a slight price increase and improved trading, due to weak demand in related fields, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2601 contract of cast aluminum alloy fell 0.1% to 20,695 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions rebounded, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly [29]. - **Strategy**: Supported by cost and supply - side policies, but with average demand, its price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's supply has not increased significantly, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now[3]. - For methanol, the positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory pattern persists. The market is expected to bottom out gradually, but due to the rapid short - term rise, it is recommended to wait and see[4]. - For urea, the price is oscillating and rebounding at the bottom. With cost and export policy support, the downside space is limited. It is expected to oscillate and build a bottom, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips[6]. - For rubber, a bullish short - term strategy is currently recommended, with fast - in and fast - out operations. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609[9]. - For PVC, the industry has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. With low enterprise profits and high inventory, it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term[11][12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the benzene - to - styrene price difference is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is declining, and the price may stop falling temporarily[15]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - side impact has shifted, and seasonal demand has started to pick up[18]. - For polypropylene, the market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. It may be supported by the cost side in the first quarter of next year[21]. - For PX, with high load and low downstream PTA load, the inventory is difficult to continuously decline. There is a risk of valuation correction[22]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short - term. However, the PX valuation has a correction risk, which may limit the upside space of PTA processing fees[24]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is expected to decline in December, and the inventory accumulation rate may slow down. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term[27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 2.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.54%, at 445.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. The gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories at the Fujairah port all increased[2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now[3]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The Taicang price increased by 30, the Lunan price increased by 30, the Inner Mongolia price increased by 2.5, the 01 contract on the futures market increased by 27 yuan to 2094 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 4. The 1 - 5 spread was + 14, at - 107[3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to rapid short - term rise and high near - term inventory[4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The price in Shandong remained stable, the price in Henan decreased by 10, and the price in Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 24 yuan to 1654 yuan, and the basis was - 34. The 1 - 5 spread was + 7, at - 64[6]. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips as the price is oscillating and rebounding at the bottom[6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: The rubber price rebounded. The main rubber - producing areas in Thailand were affected by floods, and the exchange's RU inventory and warehouse receipts were low. The spot prices of some rubber products increased. The tire factory operating rates were weak, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased[9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bullish short - term strategy with fast - in and fast - out operations, and partially establish a position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609[9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 2 yuan to 4489 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4440 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (- 18) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 293 (+ 3) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate increased, the demand - side operating rate decreased, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased[10]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term due to strong supply and weak demand[11][12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price remained unchanged, with the basis narrowing. The spot and futures prices of styrene increased, with the basis weakening. The upstream operating rate decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the demand - side operating rate increased[14]. - **Strategy**: The benzene - to - styrene price difference has room for upward repair, and the styrene price may stop falling temporarily[15]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract's closing price was 6707 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis was 103 yuan/ton, strengthening by 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, the production enterprise inventory decreased, the trader inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased[17]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with cost - side impact shifting and seasonal demand picking up[18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract's closing price was 6265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis was 165 yuan/ton, strengthening by 32 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, the production enterprise, trader, and port inventories decreased, and the downstream average operating rate increased[19][20]. - **Strategy**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. It may be supported by the cost side in the first quarter of next year[21]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract increased by 56 yuan to 6774 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 3 dollars to 829 dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (- 34), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 38 yuan (- 8). The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some devices restarted, the PTA load decreased, the import volume increased, and the inventory increased[21]. - **Strategy**: There is a risk of valuation correction due to high PX load and low downstream PTA load[22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract increased by 28 yuan to 4684 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 5 yuan to 4635 yuan. The basis was - 31 yuan (+ 12), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (+ 6). The PTA load decreased, some devices were under maintenance, the downstream load increased, the inventory decreased, and the processing fees decreased[23]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short - term. However, the PX valuation has a correction risk, which may limit the upside space of PTA processing fees[24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract increased by 23 yuan to 3896 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 16 yuan to 3904 yuan. The basis was 18 yuan (- 5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 73 yuan (+ 15). The supply - side load decreased, some devices were under maintenance or restarted, the downstream load increased, the import volume was expected to be 9.5 tons, the East China outbound volume was 0.4 tons on November 25, the port inventory remained unchanged, and the production profits were negative[26]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is expected to decline in December, and the inventory accumulation rate may slow down. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term[27].