大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 13 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数上涨 1.09%至 1065 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数上涨 0.63%至 302 美 金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.USDA 月度供需报告：旧作出口上调 0.25 亿蒲至 18.5 亿蒲，前值 18.25 亿蒲， 带动结转库存下调至 3.5 亿蒲（前值 3.75 亿蒲，预估 3.69 亿蒲），巴西及阿根廷产量 1.69 亿与 4900 万吨（前值 1.69 亿与 4900 万吨，预估 1.6917 亿与 4925 万吨），旧作 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that short - term oils and fats will maintain a volatile trend. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while palm oil's fundamentals are gradually weakening and may trend lower. However, the downward space for palm oil on the chart may be limited [11]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on May 12, 2025, were 7814, 8024, and 9378 respectively, with price changes of 34, 138, and 23. The basis for each variety in different regions is also presented [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 6, 2, and 178, with price changes of - 8, - 12, and 30 respectively [4]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 09 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were - 210, 1564, and 1354, with price changes of - 11, 0, and - 115 respectively. The oil - meal ratio was 2.69, with a change of 0.003 [4]. - **Import Profit**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 428, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1075 [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 18th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 62.0, 35.6, and 83.6 million tons respectively [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: APK - Inform lowered Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest forecast by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons, corn production by 7.3% to 27 million tons, and 2025/26 grain export forecast by 4% to 40.9 million tons. It raised the 2025 soybean harvest forecast to 6.11 million tons and 2025/26 soybean export forecast to 3.69 million tons [6]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: Affected by Sino - US trade tariffs, palm oil futures prices rose by over 1%. As of May 9, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 33.73 million tons, a 5.28% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of history [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: Sino - US trade tariffs led to an overall rebound in oils and fats. As of May 9, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 65.44 million tons, a 4.40% increase from the previous week. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil will gradually accumulate inventory [8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations, rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. As of May 2, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 83.55 million tons, an increase from the previous week, remaining at a high level in the same period of history [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term oils and fats are expected to remain volatile. Consider lightly - weighted long positions in palm oil for a rebound or short positions after a rebound. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09 [12]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 05 月 12 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3702 | 3689 | 13 | 01-05 | 592 | 676 | -84 | | JD05 | 3110 | 3013 | 97 | 05-09 | -690 | -754 | 64 | | JD09 | 3800 | 3767 | 33 | 09-01 | 98 | 78 | 20 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.63 | 1.62 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.34 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Apple Daily Report, May 12, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] - Contact: liuqiannan_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Chiba Prefecture Index: 115.09, down 0.15 from the previous day [3] - Luochuan Semi-commodity Paper Bag 70: 4.30, unchanged [3] - Qixia First and Second Grade Paper Bag 80: 4.10, unchanged [3] - Penglai First and Second Grade Paper Bag 80: 4.20, unchanged [3] - Yiyuan Paper Bag 70: 2.40, unchanged [3] - Average Wholesale Price of 6 Fruits: 7.92, down 0.09 [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 7772, up 52 from the previous close [3] - AP05: 7872, down 94 [3] - AP10: 7837, up [3] - AP01 - AP05: -100, up 146 [3] - AP05 - AP10: -119, down 119 [3] - AP10 - AP01: -27, down 27 [3] Basis - Qixia First and Second Grade 80 - AP01: 428, down 52 [3] - Qixia First and Second Grade 80 - AP05: 328, up 94 [3] - Qixia First and Second Grade 80 - AP10: 363.0, down 25 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of May 16, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 2.2886 million tons, a decrease of 379,100 tons from the previous week, and the current cold storage inventory is at a five - year low [4] - In March 2024, the export volume of fresh apples was about 96,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 255,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In March 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 9,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.7% and a year - on - year increase of 167.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 13,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9% [7] - Last Friday, the mainstream market in the origin remained stable. The number of cold storage merchants in the origin was okay, but the procurement became more cautious. The willingness of cargo owners to ship goods increased, but the asking prices were still high. During the weekend, the cold storage trading volume in the Shandong production area decreased, and the shipping speed slowed down. The market arrivals decreased slightly, the shipping situation was average, and the mainstream wholesale price remained stable [7] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first and second - grade storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.2 yuan/jin from last week [7] - The price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of fruit growers' first and second - grade slice - red apples above 80 was 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin, striped apples were 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, merchants' slice - red apples were 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin, striped apples were 4.0 - 5.0 yuan/jin. The price of general goods was 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin, and the price of third - grade merchants' goods was 2.5 - 3.0 yuan/jin. The mainstream transaction price of 70 apples was 2.5 - 2.7 yuan/jin, priced according to quality. The willingness of cold storage to ship goods increased, merchants' procurement was cautious, and the overall transaction and shipping slowed down [8] Trading Logic - This year's apple cold storage inventory is at a low level, the lowest since 2019. Therefore, it is very likely that the market supply of apples will be tight before the new fruit is launched this fruit season. At present, the market sales are okay, and the spot price is strong, which forms a certain support for the apple price. In addition, the strong wind + high - temperature and drought weather in the western production areas in April of the new fruit season has indeed affected the fruit setting of apples in some production areas. In general, it is expected that the apple trend will continue to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term, build long positions in AP10 on dips [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [12] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Qixia First and Second Grade Paper Bag 80 Price, Luochuan Semi - commodity Paper Bag 70 Price, AP Contract Main Basis, AP10 - AP01, AP05 - AP10, AP10 - AP05, Total Apple Arrivals in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao, 6 - Fruit Price, National Cold Storage Apple Inventory, National Cold Storage Apple Outbound Volume [16][18][22][24][28] - Data sources are Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [18][20][24]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Cotton, Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: May 12, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13380, up 255, with a trading volume of 44,743 hands (an increase of 26328 hands) and an open interest of 101,668 (an increase of 12990) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 12980, up 295, with a trading volume of 2,819 hands (a decrease of 438 hands) and an open interest of 34,297 (a decrease of 234) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13240, up 290, with a trading volume of 382,405 hands (an increase of 223703 hands) and an open interest of 582,792 (an increase of 8708) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19500, up 320, with a trading volume of 3 hands (an increase of 2 hands) and an open interest of 9 (an increase of 1) [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18650, unchanged, with a trading volume of 0 hands (a decrease of 6 hands) and an open interest of 160 (unchanged) [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19430, up 325, with a trading volume of 189 hands (a decrease of 13 hands) and an open interest of 1309 (a decrease of 30) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 14122 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [3] - Cot A was priced at 78.25 cents/pound, down 0.70 cents/pound [3] - (FC Index):M: to - port price was 75.97 cents/pound, down 0.70 cents/pound [3] - CY IndexC32S was priced at 20300 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan/ton [3] - FCY IndexC33S was priced at 21924 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton [3] - Indian S - 6 was priced at 54600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [3] - Polyester staple fiber was priced at 7450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [3] - Pure polyester yarn T32S was priced at 11040 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was priced at 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose yarn R30S was priced at 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spread - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 400, down 40; 5 - 9 spread was - 260, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 140, up 35 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 850, up 320; 5 - 9 spread was - 780, down 325; 9 - 1 spread was - 70, up 5 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 was 6120, up 65; CY05 - CF05 was 5670, down 295; CY09 - CF09 was 6190, up 35 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 223, up 110; sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was - 428, up 75; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1624, down 701 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - From May 10 - 11, 2025, China - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva. The US promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of the reciprocal tariffs, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. China made corresponding adjustments [5] - As of May 9, 2025, Xinjiang's cotton sowing was nearly finished, with the planting area stable at about 36 million mu [5] - As of May 2, 2025, ON - CALL 2507 contract's seller un - priced contracts decreased by 469 to 18420, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week. 24/25 annual seller un - priced contracts decreased by 609 to 18483, equivalent to 420,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week. ICE seller un - priced contracts increased to 50451, equivalent to 1.14 million tons, an increase of 1165 (30,000 tons) week - on - week [6] Trading Logic - The China - US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. The US will modify tariff policies. The macro - level tariff policy is better than expected, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to open higher and strengthen in the short term [7] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be stronger due to macro - level influence [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The China - US negotiation progressed smoothly, but the overall demand for cotton grey cloth was insufficient, with slow sales and increasing inventory in weaving factories. Some spinning mills raised cotton yarn prices by 200 - 300 yuan/ton, but the market was in the off - season with weak downstream demand. Macro - level benefits may push cotton prices higher, and cotton yarn prices will follow but with a smaller increase [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On May 12, 2025, for CF509C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13240.00, the closing price was 256.00, up 30.6%, IV was 11.9% [12] - For CF509P12600.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13240.00, the closing price was 131.00, down 46.3%, IV was 13.5% [12] - For CF509P12200.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13240.00, the closing price was 73.00, down 41.6%, IV was 14.8% [12] Volatility and Market Sentiment - On May 12, 2025, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.5629, with a slight increase. The main contract's position PCR was 0.8529, and the trading volume PCR was 0.7283. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased, and the market's bearish sentiment was obvious [12][13] Option Strategy - Options: Wait and see [14] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][21][26]

大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 聚酯产业链期货日报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 聚酯产业链期货日报 【基础数据】 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号： F3019741 投资咨询从业证号： Z0017025 :021-6578 9235 :suifei_qh@chinastock.co m.cn | 炙别 | 名称 合约 | | 2025/5/9 | 2025/5/12 | 漆跌 | 深跌幅 | | 名称 | | 2025/5/9 | 2025/5/12 | 漆跌 | 深跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2506 | 6626 | 6806 | 180 | 2.72% | | 6月 MOPI CFR | | 269 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | | РХ | 2509 | 6472 | 6654 | 182 | 2.81% | | PX中国CFR估价 | | 785 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | | | 2601 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: The outcome of the China-US tariff negotiation exceeded market expectations, and the subsequent market is expected to rebound. The spot freight rate bottom is gradually emerging, and the short - term market is expected to continue to rebound. However, the long - term outlook is still affected by the trade war [4][5][6]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The overall demand in the international dry bulk shipping market was weak last week, and freight rates were under pressure. The substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks may have a positive impact on market sentiment and support the freight rate market [17][18]. - **Oil Shipping**: The BDTI is maintaining a volatile trend. OPEC+ increasing production may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The concentrated outflow of goods in late April and early May supported the VLCC market, and the impact of the goods release rhythm on freight rates needs further attention [22]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - **Futures Market**: On May 12, 2025, all container shipping futures contracts except EC2604 reached the daily limit. For example, EC2506 closed at 1466.2 points, up 17.31% [2]. - **Price Difference Structure**: The price differences between different contracts showed various changes, such as EC06 - EC08 at - 328, down 48.8 [2]. - **Container Freight Rates**: SCFIS European Line was at 1302.62 points, down 5.54% week - on - week and 48.15% year - on - year; SCFIS US West Line was at 1455.31 points, up 10.19% week - on - week and down 41.97% year - on - year [2]. - **Fuel Costs**: WTI crude oil near - month was at $60.63 per barrel, up 1.05% week - on - week and down 23.33% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $63.42 per barrel, up 1.10% week - on - week and down 24.1% year - on - year [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the short - term, adopt a long - at - dips strategy for the near - month contracts 06 and 08. Hold the 8 - 10 and 6 - 10 positive spreads and the 10 - 12 negative spread [6][7]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On May 9, the BDI decreased by 1.29% to 1299 points, the BCI decreased by 2.45% to 1709 points, the BPI decreased by 0.73% to 1353 points, and the BSI increased by 0.10% to 969 points [15][16]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: On May 9, the freight rate of the Brazilian Tubarao - Qingdao iron ore route (BCI - C3) was $18.22 per ton, down 1.03% week - on - week; the freight rate of the Western Australia - Qingdao route (BCI - C5) was $7.49 per ton, down 2.60% week - on - week [17]. - **Industry News**: The substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks may support the market. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased, and the Panama Canal will conduct maintenance work, affecting the transportation capacity of Panamax ships [18][19]. Oil Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On May 9, the BDTI was at 995, down 1% week - on - week and 13.48% year - on - year; the BCTI was at 573, up 0.35% week - on - week and down 43.55% year - on - year [20][22]. - **Average Earnings**: The average earnings of VLCCs were $44031 per day, down 13% week - on - week and 20.86% year - on - year; the average earnings of Suezmax tankers were $46548 per day, down 14.44% week - on - week and 9.39% year - on - year [20]. - **Industry News**: Trump's visit to the Middle East may not achieve the goal of normalizing Saudi - Israeli relations. Goldman Sachs expects non - US shale oil supply to increase, and Saudi Aramco's Q1 net income decreased [23][24]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including SCFIS and SCFI index charts, container shipping freight rate charts, dry bulk shipping index charts, oil shipping index charts, and tanker earnings charts, which visually display the historical trends of relevant data [28][30][38].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The supply of peanuts is still abundant due to the large production in 2024 and weak downstream demand, so the peanut price is expected to be relatively stable in the short term. The market is currently trading based on the oil mill purchase price and rhythm. Recently, the peanut price has remained stable, and the oil mill's theoretical profit from peanut crushing is in the black. The price of peanut 10 continues to rise, and there are still many uncertainties such as weather as it trades new crops, especially considering the recent drought in Henan and other places [5][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data - **Futures Market**: PK504 closed at 8100, up 68 (0.84%) with a trading volume of 12 (up 33.33%) and an open interest of 42 (up 16.67%); PK510 closed at 8222, up 116 (1.41%) with a trading volume of 62,563 (up 96.51%) and an open interest of 87,229 (up 7.11%); PK601 closed at 8120, up 66 (0.81%) with a trading volume of 430 (up 175.64%) and an open interest of 2,584 (up 1.45%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of peanuts in Henan slightly increased, while that in the Northeast remained stable. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.1 yuan/jin, and that in Changtu, Liaoning was also 4.1 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.05 - 4.2 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The price in Junan, Shandong was 3.95 yuan/jin. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 7950 yuan/ton. The purchase price of peanut oil mills was stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 7350 - 7650 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price at 8110 yuan/ton. The price of domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil was stable at 15000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the price of small - squeezed fragrant peanut oil was 17000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [3][5]. - **By - product Market**: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal decreased to 3030 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The unit protein price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was relatively high, and the short - term peanut meal was weak, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Import Price**: The price of imported Sudan peanuts was 7950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - **Spread**: PK01 - PK04 spread was 20, down 2; PK04 - PK10 spread was - 122, down 48; PK10 - PK01 spread was 102, up 50 [3]. 2. Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan slightly increased, and that in the Northeast remained stable. It is expected that the peanut spot will be relatively stable in the short term. The purchase price of peanut oil mills was stable, and the prices of peanut oil and soybean oil increased [5]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: Short - term long on peanut 10 at low prices with a range - bound trading mindset [10]. - **Spread Strategy**: Take long positions in the peanut 10 - 1 spread at low prices [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Sell pk510 - p - 7800 [12]. 4. Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams showing the price of Shandong peanut spot, peanut oil mill's crushing profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 3 - 10 contracts [14][18][22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand has improved slightly on a month - on - month basis, supply remains at a low level, and the inventory accumulation speed of the industry chain has slowed down since the second quarter. Low inventory supports the near - end spot price and benefits the long - term peak - season expectations. Due to the US pressure on Chinese refineries during the sanctions on Iran, concerns about overseas crude oil supply and domestic asphalt supply have increased. Coupled with positive signals from China - US trade negotiations, oil prices are strong in the short term, and asphalt prices have risen accordingly. In the medium and long term, with the expected continuous production increase of OPEC, the upward space for oil prices is limited. Currently, the supply - demand situation of asphalt is neutral, and the unilateral price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, while the asphalt/crude oil spread will remain high. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3300 and 3500 [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On May 12, 2025, the prices of BU2506 (the main contract), BU2507, and BU2508 increased by 0.81%, 0.99%, and 1.23% respectively compared to May 9. The prices of SC2506 and Brent first - line also rose by 2.10% and 2.47%. The main contract's position decreased by 2.27% to 10.8 million lots, and the trading volume decreased by 14.61% to 16.6 million lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 86,120 tons [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis spreads of BU06 - 07, BU07 - 08, Shandong - main contract, and East China - main contract decreased by 30.00%, 29.63%, 29.06%, and 50.75% respectively. The South China - main contract basis decreased by 12.39%. The asphalt refinery profit decreased by 208.10% to - 112.88, and the refined oil comprehensive profit decreased by 20.18% to 342.09. The BU - SC cracking spread increased by 10.28% to - 452.65 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The low - end prices in Shandong and East China remained unchanged, while the low - end price in South China increased by 0.60% to 3340. The prices of Shandong gasoline, diesel, and petroleum coke decreased slightly, and the dilution asphalt discount remained unchanged. The exchange - rate mid - price decreased by 0.04% [2]. 2. Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On May 12, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3669 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day. In the northern market, demand increased slightly, and the prices of Shandong's major refineries rose by 30 yuan/ton. In the southern market, driven by cost and controllable refinery inventories, prices in South China and the Yangtze River Delta rose by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [5]. - **Regional Markets**: In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3600 - 3730 yuan/ton. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3570 - 3570 yuan/ton. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3350 - 3460 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, asphalt prices in Shandong will remain firm, those in the Yangtze River Delta and South China will remain stable. In the medium and long term, the unilateral price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the asphalt/crude oil spread will remain high [5][6][7]. 3. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the closing price and position of the BU main contract, the market prices of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong refinery gasoline and diesel [9][10][13]

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 | | 2025/5/12 | 2025/5/9 | 2025/4/30 | 2025/4/14 | Δ日 | Δ周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 2996 | 2949 | 2913 | 2908 | 47 | 83 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 14.3 | 14.9 | 14.5 | 22.2 | -0.6 | -0.2 | | FU仓单(吨) | 44390 | 51120 | 51120 | 46170 | -6730 | -6730 | | LU主力 | 3518 | 3472 | 3394 | 3389 | 46 | 124 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 6.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 5.0 | -0.2 | 4.1 | | LU仓单 | 26270 | 42250 | 42250 | 21250 | -15980 | -15980 | | FU7-9 | 164 | 176 | 146 | 13 ...