Yin He Qi Huo

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银河期货苹果日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 11:17
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The apple cold storage inventory this year is at a low level, the lowest since 2019. So, the apple supply in the market is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The current market sales are okay, and the spot price is strong, which supports the apple price. Also, the windy, hot, and dry weather in the western producing areas in April of the new fruit season has affected the fruit - setting in some areas. Overall, the apple price is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly upwards [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Zeus apple price index was 107.62, down 0.02 from the previous day. The price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples rose 0.45 to 4.75. The prices of Qixia, Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples and Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 apples remained unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.95, up 0.03 [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 was 7674, down 98 from the previous close; AP05 was 7625, down 247; AP10 was 7744, down 93. The spreads AP01 - AP05, AP05 - AP10, and AP10 - AP01 also changed [3]. - **Price Differences**: The price differences between Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples and AP01, AP05, AP10 all increased [3]. Market News and Views - **Inventory**: As of May 16, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas was 228.86 tons, a decrease of 37.91 tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year low [4]. - **Trade Data**: In March 2024, the fresh apple export volume was about 9.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 25.56 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In March 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.7% and a year - on - year increase of 167.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.33 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9% [6]. - **Market Transactions**: The mainstream transaction prices in the producing areas remained stable. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants decreased, and most of them purchased according to demand. The storage merchants were more willing to sell, but the asking prices were still high, supporting the price. The overall cold storage trading volume decreased, and the shipping speed slowed down. The market arrivals decreased slightly, and the sales were stable [6]. - **Profit**: The profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.9 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.2 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - **Spot Price in Shandong**: The apple price in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples was 3.5 - 3.8 yuan per catty, and the striped ones were 3.5 - 4.5 yuan per catty. The price of merchant's slice - red apples was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty, and the striped ones were 4.0 - 5.0 yuan per catty. The price of bulk apples was 2.8 - 3.0 yuan per catty, and the third - grade merchant's apples were 2.5 - 3.0 yuan per catty. The price of 70 apples was 2.5 - 2.7 yuan per catty, and the transactions were average [7]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Short - term, go long on AP10 at low prices. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].
银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 11:13
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 F3013727 投资咨询证号: Z0014425 联系方式: :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13425 | 45 | 46,780 | 2037 | 98,070 | -3598 | | CF05合约 | 13070 | 90 | 3,164 | 345 | 32,091 | -2206 | | CF09合约 | 13330 | 90 | 288,431 | -93974 | 569,849 | -12943 | | CY01合约 | 19500 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 18650 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 0 | | CY09合约 | 19545 | 115 | 391 | 202 | 1308 | -1 | | | | | 现货价格 | | | ...
银河期货尿素日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 11:13
大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场:尿素期货宽幅震荡,最终报收 1882(-2/-0.11%)。 2、现货市场:出厂价坚挺,成交尚可,河南出厂报 1840-1850 元/吨,山东小颗粒 出厂报 1820-1850 元/吨,河北小颗粒出厂 1830-1880 元/吨,山西中小颗粒出厂报 1840-1850 元/吨,安徽小颗粒出厂报 1860-1870 元/吨,内蒙出厂报 1760-1800 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】5 月 13 日,尿素行业日产 19.28 万吨,较上一工作日减少 0.98 万吨,较去 年同期增加 1.01 万吨;今日开工 83.59%,较去年同期 79.79%回升 3.80%。 【逻辑分析】 今日,受市场消息刺激,国内主流地区尿素现货出厂报价坚挺,成交顺畅。山东地 区主流出厂报价坚挺,市场情绪表现高涨,工业复合肥开工率高位回落,原料库存充裕, 基层订单稀少,刚需补货为主,农业继续刚需采购,主流厂涨价之后,贸易商继续囤货, 新单成交顺畅,代发充裕,预计出厂报价坚挺为主;河南地区市场情绪旺盛,出厂报价 坚挺,贸易商 ...
银河期货甲醇日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 11:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The international methanol device operating rate has reached a high level, and the import volume in May will significantly increase. The downstream demand is stable, and the methanol price has strong short - term support at the bottom. However, in May, with the increase in arrivals, the port will start to accumulate inventory, and the domestic supply is loose. Methanol should be mainly shorted on rebounds, and short - chasing is not recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The futures market showed a strong and volatile trend, closing at 2291 (+46/+2.05%). [3] - In the spot market, prices varied by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia南线 was priced at 2100 yuan/ton, and in consumption areas, Lunan was priced at 2310 yuan/ton. [3] Important Information - From May 12 - 13, 2025, the weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region totaled 52,500 tons (5.25 million tons), an increase of 33,900 tons (3.39 million tons) compared to the previous statistical date, with a month - on - month increase of +182.26%. [4] Logical Analysis - Supply side: The coal - producing areas in the northwest have seen a recovery in coal mine operating rates, but the demand is weak. The raw coal price fluctuates, and the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest has decreased. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously loose. [5] - Import side: The international methanol device operating rate has increased significantly, and all Iranian devices have resumed. The prices in Europe and the United States have fallen again, and the price in Southeast Asia is stable. The import volume in April was 800,000 tons. [5] - Demand side: Traditional downstream industries have gradually recovered, and the operating rate has steadily increased. The operating rate of MTO devices has declined, and some MTO devices are operating at less - than - full capacity or are shut down. [5] - Inventory: The port has been continuously destocking, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The inventory of inland enterprises has been decreasing under rigid demand. However, in May, the port will start to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of inland enterprises has started to increase. [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rebounds. [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see. [8] - Options: Sell call options. [8]
银河期货天然气周报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 11:12
天然气周报 研究员:李杭瑾 期货从业证号: F03141325 投资咨询证号:Z0021670 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 ◆ 【策略】 HH单边:多单持有; TTF单边:震荡(观点仅供参考,不作为买卖依据) GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◆ 美国天然气方面。供应端,由于二叠纪伴生气产量有所下滑,美国天然气产量下降至105bcf/d。需求方面,目前天然气 总需求位于历史同期中等位置,气象学家预测,到5月17日,美国48个州的气温将基本保持高于正常水平。LNG出口方 面,5月6日FRRPORT加工气量降至0,不过目前已经恢复正常水平。展望后市,目前基本面仍然偏强,在产量下滑以及 出口维持高位背景下,HH仍是易涨难跌。 ◆ 欧洲天然气期货价格攀升至每兆瓦时35欧元以上,因为全球液化天然气需求回升,供应因季节性维护而收紧。在经历了 数月的低迷之后,中国进口商已重返现货市场,这引发了人们对液化天然气 ...
银河期货沥青日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 09:35
大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 沥青日报 第一部分 相关数据 | 名称 | 2025/05/13 | 2025/05/12 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2506 (主力) | 3485 | 3481 | 4 | 0.11% | | BU2507 | 3462 | 3467 | - 5 | -0.14% | | BU2508 | 3437 | 3448 | -11 | -0.32% | | SC2506 | 479.5 | 482.3 | -2.8 | -0.58% | | Brent首行 | 64.89 | 64.72 | 0.2 | 0.26% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 9.5 | 10.8 | -1.2 | -11.30% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 13.1 | 16.6 | -3.4 | -20.72% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 85980 | 86120 | -140 | -0.16% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU06-07 ...
玉米淀粉日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 09:34
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/5/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2253 | -20 | -0.89% | 25,687 | 36.80% | 58,714 | -4.61% | | C2505 | | 2310 | -15 | -0.65% | 1,537 | -66.30% | 2,935 | -67.96% | | C2509 | | 2356 | -19 | -0.81% | 148,693 | -1.38% | 427,914 | 1.36% | | CS2601 | | 2677 | -33 | -1.23% | 1,029 | 23.09% | 4,219 | -6.16% | | CS2505 | | 2680 | -21 | -0.78% | 1,026 | ...
银河期货花生日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 09:34
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 | 研究员:刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号: F03107370 投资咨询证号: Z0018389 联系方式: :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/5/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK504 | 8090 | -10 | -0.12% | 1 | -91.67% | 43 | 2.38% | | PK510 | 8198 | -24 | -0.29% | 44,850 | -28.31% | 88,012 | 0.90% | | PK601 | 8088 | -32 | -0.40% | 393 | -8.60% | 2,712 | 4.95% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 ...
燃料油日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 09:34
燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 | 研究员: | | --- | | 吴晓蓉 | 期货从业证号: F03108405 投资咨询从业证号: Z0021537 : 021-65789108 大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 : wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/5/13 | 2025/5/12 | 2025/5/6 | 2025/4/15 | Δ日 | Δ周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 3006 | 2996 | 2837 | 2947 | 10 | 169 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 14.6 | 14.3 | 14.9 | 23.8 | 0.3 | -0.3 | | FU仓单(吨) | 39620 | 44390 | 51120 | 46170 | -4770 | -11500 | | LU主力 | 3541 | 3518 | 3328 | 3393 | 23 | 213 | | LU主力持仓(万手) | 6.5 | 6.4 | 5. ...
银河期货航运日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 09:27
Report Overview - The report is a shipping research report by the Commodity Research Institute, covering container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and tanker transportation [1][10][28] Group 1: Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The 08 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued to strengthen significantly on May 13, with EC2508 closing at 1896 points, up 5.69% from the previous day's close [5] - The SCFIS European line reported 1302.62 points on May 13, down 5.54% month-on-month, and the SCFI European line reported $1161/TEU on May 9, down 3.25% month-on-month [5] - The spot freight rate bottom is gradually emerging. After the tariff reduction, the US line rush shipment starts to raise prices first. The European line disk anticipates first, and then the follow-up focus returns to the spot. The short-term near-month disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] - Hold the 8-10 positive spread, 6-10 positive spread, and 10-12 negative spread [8] Industry News - The EU welcomes the substantial progress and important consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade high-level talks, hoping to reduce trade barriers and support the stability and predictability of global trade and investment [9][10][11] - US tariff revenue in April reached $16 billion, a surge of $9 billion or 130% from the same period last year [11] Group 2: Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dry Bulk Composite Freight Index ended its four consecutive trading days of decline. The BDI rose 0.38% to 1304 points, the BCI rose 1.29% to 1731 points, the BPI fell 0.81% to 1342 points, and the BSI rose 0.10% to 970 points [15] - On May 12, the freight rates of the Cape-sized ship iron ore routes, Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI-C3) and Western Australia - Qingdao (BCI-C5), were reported at $18.36/ton and $7.56/ton, up 0.80% and 0.93% month-on-month respectively [16] - The dry bulk shipping market lacks obvious incremental transportation demand, with more supply of shipping capacity, and the freight rates are under pressure. The international dry bulk freight market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17] Industry News - From May 5 to May 11, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.225 million tons, a decrease of 1.179 million tons month-on-month. The global iron ore shipments were 30.29 million tons, a decrease of 0.215 million tons month-on-month [18] - The analysis institution APK - Inform lowered the forecast of Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons and the grain export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 4% to 40.9 million tons [18] - Indonesia's coal exports from January to April decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, hitting a new low for the same period in three years [19] Group 3: Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was reported at 991, down 0.40% month-on-month and 14.50% year-on-year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was reported at 574, up 0.17% month-on-month and down 45.54% year-on-year [22] - OPEC+ started to gradually increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The concentrated outflow of cargoes in late April and early May supported the VLCC ship market, and the impact of the cargo release rhythm on freight rates needs further attention [22] Industry News - As of May 12, the domestic refined oil social unit diesel storage capacity utilization rate was 30.35%, up 0.02% from the end of last month [23] - US President Trump hopes to obtain a $1 trillion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, but this goal may face huge obstacles [23][24] - After the China-US trade negotiation, the market showed an unexpectedly positive trend, but the oil price subsequently fell back, and the market atmosphere remained cautious [24]