大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 5,885 4 6 0.76% 189,669 29.10% 308,154 -2.82% 5,970 4 8 0.81% 23,237 26.75% 34,835 -4.33% 6,060 1 3 0.21% 777 -4.78% 7,207 -8.46% 柳州 昆明 湛江 南宁 鲅鱼圈 日照 西安 6220 6000 6190 6155 6300 6270 6550 1 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 -20 1 0 160 -60 130 9 5 240 210 490 SR05-SR07 价差 涨跌 SR05-SR09 价差 涨跌 SR07-SR09 价差 涨跌 -90 3 5 175 -33 8 5 2 国别 ICE主力 升贴水 运费 配额内价格 配额外价格 与柳州价差 与日照价差 与盘面价差 巴西进口 17.82 0.16 3 7 4733 6058 162 212.00 -88 泰国进口 17.82 0.8 1 8 4716 6036 184 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market has limited near - term pressure, with good US soybean export performance and reduced selling pressure in Brazil. However, the long - term supply is expected to be relatively loose due to high projected US soybean ending stocks and continued pressure in the South American market. - In the domestic market, the recent tight supply situation is gradually improving as the oil mill operating rate increases and soybean arrivals become clearer. - The macro - environment has a complex and limited impact on soybean meal, as China still imposes tariffs on US soybeans. - The soybean meal futures market is expected to face some pressure, while the rapeseed meal market may see weakening demand and limited supply - side benefits[5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - The US soybean futures market showed a strong trend due to improved macro - conditions after China - US talks. The domestic futures market was mainly in shock, with soybean meal outperforming rapeseed meal. - For soybean meal futures, the contract 0105 closed at 2955, down 6; contract 09 at 2919, down 1. For rapeseed meal futures, contract 01 closed at 2330, down 15; contract 05 at 2485, up 1; contract 09 at 2563, down 2. - The basis of soybean meal in Tianjin was 420, up 40; in Dongguan, it was 220, down 130; in Zhangjiagang, it was 200, up 10; in Rizhao, it was 190, up 30. The basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong was - 63, up 42; in Guangdong, it was - 113, down 8; in Guangxi, it was - 123, down 8. - The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal was - 132, up 28; the 9 - 1 spread was - 36, up 5; the 1 - 5 spread was 168, down 33. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 78, up 3; the 9 - 1 spread was 233, up 13; the 1 - 5 spread was - 155, down 16. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 852, down 18; between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 1039, down 111; between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 117, down 3[4]. Fundamental Analysis - International: As of the week ending May 1, US soybean export sales were 376,700 tons. The March crushing data was average, but overall demand was good. Brazil's soybean harvest progress as of May 3 was 97.7%, higher than last year and the five - year average. The long - term US soybean ending stocks are expected to remain high due to large export pressure on new crops, and the South American market will continue to face pressure. - Domestic: As of May 9, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%. Soybean inventory was 5.3491 million tons, up 602,700 tons (12.7%) from last week and 1.1634 million tons (27.79%) from last year. Soybean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, up 19,100 tons (23.26%) from last week but down 458,000 tons (81.9%) from last year. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 159,500 tons, with an operating rate of 42.51%. Rapeseed inventory was 200,000 tons, down 68,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory was 36,000 tons, up 21,500 tons from last week[5][6]. Macro - environment The postponement and reduction of tariffs by China and the US have complex and limited impacts on soybean meal, as China still imposes tariffs on US soybeans[6]. Logic Analysis - Soybean meal: With the increase in the operating rate of domestic oil mills, the supply shortage is alleviated. The upcoming monthly supply - demand report may be a focus, but the pricing center is still in South America, so the market may face pressure. - Rapeseed meal: The market's focus is on future supply. With the decline in soybean meal prices, rapeseed meal demand may weaken, and supply - side benefits may be limited. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile[7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Adopt a strategy of selling wide straddles[8]. Soybean Crushing Profit - For soybeans from Argentina, the May shipment had a crushing profit of 75.10; June shipment, 11.48; July shipment, - 76.77. - For soybeans from Brazil, the June shipment had a crushing profit of 102.52; July shipment, 82.62; August shipment, 15.34[9].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 玉米淀粉日报 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/5/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2273 | -9 | -0.40% | 18,777 | 36.27% | 61,554 | -4.82% | | C2505 | | 2325 | -12 | -0.52% | 4,561 | 513.04% | 9,160 | 0.22% | | C2509 | | 2375 | -10 | -0.42% | 150,772 | 54.48% | 422,170 | 3.02% | | CS2601 | | 2710 | -6 | -0.22% | 836 | 9.42% | 4,4 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/5/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.11 | 15.06 | 0.05 | 山 西 | 14.89 | 14.85 | 0.04 | | 湖北（0） | 14.61 | 14.53 | 0.08 | 辽 宁 | 14.58 | 14.54 | 0.04 | | 安徽（300） | 15.19 | 15.15 | 0.04 | 吉 林 | 14.51 | 14.42 | 0.09 | | 湖南（100） | 14.53 | 14.53 | 0.00 | 黑龙江 | 14.41 | 14.37 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Styrene Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: May 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Sui Fei [3] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3019741 [3] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0017025 [3] Group 2: Basic Data Futures Closing Prices - EB2506: Opened at 7005 on May 9, closed at 7320 on May 12, up 315 or 4.50% [4] - EB2507: Opened at 6887 on May 9, closed at 7205 on May 12, up 318 or 4.62% [4] - EB2508: Opened at 6816 on May 9, closed at 7130 on May 12, up 314 or 4.61% [4] - EB2509: Opened at 6767 on May 9, closed at 7068 on May 12, up 301 or 4.45% [4] Spot Prices - Jiangsu Spot: Opened at 7150 on May 9, closed at 7250 on May 12, up 100 or 1.40% [4] - South China Spot: Opened at 7200 on May 9, closed at 7300 on May 12, up 100 or 1.39% [4] - Shandong Spot: Opened at 7220 on May 9, closed at 7210 on May 12, down 10 or -0.14% [4] Basis - East China Spot (EB2506): Opened at 145 on May 9, closed at -70 on May 12, down 215 or -148.28% [4] - EB5 under (EB2506): Opened at 175 on May 9, closed at 200 on May 12, up 25 or 14.29% [4] Month Spread - EB2506 - EB2507: Opened at 118 on May 9, closed at 115 on May 12, down 3 or -2.54% [4] - EB2507 - EB2508: Opened at 71 on May 9, closed at 75 on May 12, up 4 or 5.63% [4] Price Difference - EB - BZ Spot East China: Opened at 1485 on May 9, closed at 1275 on May 12, down 210 or -14.14% [4] Spot Profit - EPS Ordinary Material: Opened at 500 on May 9, closed at 400 on May 12, down 100 or -20.00% [4] - GPPS: Opened at -199 on May 9, closed at -228 on May 12, down 29 or -14.61% [4] - ABS: Opened at 376 on May 9, closed at 168 on May 12, down 208 or -55.32% [4] Outer Market Prices - Ethylene (Northeast Asia): Opened at 790 on May 8, closed at 790 on May 9, unchanged [4] - Pure Benzene CFR China: Opened at 690 on May 9, closed at 740 on May 12, up 50 or 7.25% [4] Group 3: Logical Analysis - The styrene futures price rose, the basis strengthened, and the market trading volume increased [5] - As of May 12, the styrene inventory in the East China main port decreased by 1.18 tons to 5.67 tons compared with May 6, while the upstream pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.3 tons to 12.3 tons [5] - From mid - to late May to early June, multiple sets of equipment such as Jiujiang Petrochemical, Gaoqiao Petrochemical, and CNOOC Huizhou are planned to restart, and the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase [5] - The arbitrage window between Asia and America for pure benzene is closed, but the import volume of pure benzene remains high [5] - Recently, the supply of styrene has increased while the demand has decreased, the port inventory has decreased, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene has continued to strengthen [5] - The mutual tariff reduction between China and the US has improved the market's pessimistic expectations for trade, and the macro - environment has improved. In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]

现货需求相对疲软 VLCC市场运价承压 研究员：黄莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【运价】 油运运价：5/9日波罗的海原油运输指数BDTI报995，环比-1.00%，同比-13.48%。成品油运价：5/9日波罗的海成品油运输 指数BCTI报573，环比+0.35%，同比-43.55%。 【综合分析】 目前 BDTI 维持震荡走势，OPEC+自 5 月开始逐步增产 41.1 万桶/日，高于此前市场预期，或将增加全球原油的海运需求。 4 月下旬和 5 月初货源集中流出，对 VLCC 船市场带来一定支撑，后续还需关注货源释放节奏对运价的影响。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 1. 本周三大原油油轮市场加权收益环比维持下跌走势 数据来源：Clarksons，银河期货 数据来源：Clarksons ，银河期货 数据来源：Clarksons ，银河期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April will increase significantly and continue to increase production and accumulate inventory later. However, the buying enthusiasm of China and India has increased recently. As Brazilian soybeans gradually arrive at ports and customs clearance issues are resolved, the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills will increase significantly, and the soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate seasonally, with the soybean oil basis likely to weaken. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil change little, and the pattern of oversupply persists, but the rapeseed oil futures price fluctuates due to international relations [4][27]. - It is expected that the short - term oil market will maintain a volatile trend. Among them, soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while the fundamentals of palm oil are gradually weakening and may run weakly. From the perspective of the futures price, the downward space of palm oil may be limited. [29] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events & Market Review - Three major forecasting agencies predict that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April may reach 1.79 million tons, and the production may increase by 17% to 1.62 million tons. The Gapki data shows that the production of Indonesian palm oil in February changed little month - on - month, exports reached 2.8 million tons, and the inventory dropped to a historically low level of 2.25 million tons [4]. International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Three major forecasting agencies estimate the production, import, export, domestic consumption, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April. The MPOB report will be released on Tuesday noon. The production in April is expected to increase significantly, but exports are still at a relatively low level in the same period of history [5][7]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The inventory of Indonesian palm oil in February was at a low level, and biodiesel consumption may be better than expected. The market is still skeptical about the implementation of B40 in Indonesia, but the biodiesel consumption data shows good implementation. The origin quotation is weakening, and palm oil is regaining market share [11]. - **India**: The import of edible oil in India in April may drop to around 870,000 tons, and the port inventory may drop to about 810,000 tons. The import and refining profits of the three major oils have improved, and the recent purchasing enthusiasm for palm oil has increased [16]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 3.23% week - on - week to 356,100 tons, still at a relatively low level. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and there were many purchases this week. The spot trading volume increased, and the basis was stable. The downward space of palm oil futures price may be limited [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 0.23% week - on - week to 619,900 tons, at a neutral - to - slightly - low level. The soybean crushing volume increased, and the basis decreased. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil will enter a stage of inventory accumulation, and the basis will be weak. The market is concerned about the implementation of US biodiesel [22]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed crushing volume decreased last week. As of May 2, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased to 835,500 tons, at a historically high level. The import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil expanded. The spot trading volume increased slightly, and the basis decreased slightly. The futures price is affected by policies and maintains a wide - range volatile trend [25]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: It is expected that the short - term oil market will maintain a volatile trend. Palm oil can be considered for light - position long - entry for a rebound or short - entry after a rebound. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [29]. Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking This part mainly presents various data charts, including the monthly production, export, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil; the supply and demand data of Indian oils; the import profit of domestic oils; the supply and demand and inventory data of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil; and the basis data of domestic oils [31][32][33].

【粕类周报】市场压力仍在体现 粕类震荡运行 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 国内豆粕现货供应开始有明显改善，虽然实际需求表现相对良好，但由于前期需求受抑制，因此现货成交仍然相对比较一般。随着后续大 豆到港量的逐步增加，预计油厂开机率后续将呈现增加态势，大豆及豆粕库存都将以偏增加为主。国内盘面预计也将一定程度承压，不过 当前盘面跌幅相对较大，对于后续供应压力已经有所体现，预计后续下跌空间也将相对受限。 目录 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面整体呈现震荡运行态势，一方面受自身供需影响，另一方面美豆油的大幅波动也产生较大影响，总体来看，美豆旧作整体没 有太明显压力，出口相对比较良好，压榨方面虽然表现一般，但仍有一定支撑，新作方面在种植推进良好等因素影响下，则相对以偏利空 为主。南美市场近期压力有所好转，巴西出口以及卖货压力有所减少，但由于整体产量仍然相对较大，同时阿根廷近期卖货情况有所改善， 因此，总体供应压力仍然存在。受此影响，美豆以及国内进口大豆成本仍然存在一定压力。 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- ...

【生猪周报】供应端整体稳定 猪价震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 第一章 综合分析&交易策略 2 第二章 内容提纲 3 第二章 数据图表&逻辑分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 1 近期期货盘面整体以小幅震荡为主，由于前期盘面对于后续现货下跌已经有所反应，因此近期供应方面的逐步恢复反应有 限，加之实际现货价格仍然维持坚挺。需要注意的是，当前生猪出栏增幅可能相对有限，如果价格持续没有看到下跌，不 排除期货盘面可能有所反弹。但当前供应宽松特点仍在逐步体现，重点关注后续市场出栏节奏变化。 交易策略 单边：远月合约继续以高点抛空为主 套利：LH79反套 期权：卖出宽跨式策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 1.综合分析&交易策略 ◼ 综合分析 本周全国各地生猪价格继续呈现震荡运行态势，其中规模企业以及普通养殖户出栏动力有所放缓，规模企业在此前一个月 中出栏完成情况良好，同时本月出栏计划没有明显上调，因此出栏节奏仍然相对比较一般，而普通养殖户对于价格仍然比 较乐观，因此基本出栏也整体稳定，出栏节奏相对比较一般。二次育肥近期开始有少量出栏的情况，但 ...

国内产销进度偏快 郑糖走势强于原糖 研究员：黄莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 国际方面，新榨季巴西制糖比、产糖量均较去年同期有所增加，拖累盘面。考虑到巴西库存偏低，短期贸易流偏紧支撑国 际糖价。预计原糖整体维持震荡运行，后续还需关注巴西生产进度。 国内方面，产销速度偏快、去库前置。考虑到糖浆进口政策进一步收紧，产需缺口如何补足成为市场焦点，预计郑糖价格 将跟随补充缺口的糖源成本波动。此前广西干旱引起的市场担忧情绪发酵在近期降雨后有所降温，后续还需关注新榨季糖料生 长情况。 【逻辑分析】 原糖受巴西丰产预期影响走势偏弱，近期制糖比处于同期偏高水平，不过考虑到下方买盘支撑，预计原糖震荡运行。反观国 内，产销比同比偏高以及库存低位带动郑糖走势强于原糖，预计郑糖短期维持震荡运行。关注广西主产区天气情况。 【交易策略】 3. 期权：虚值比例价差期权。 (以上观点仅供参考，不作为入市依据) GALAXY FUTURES 2 1. ...