Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that methanol will mainly continue an oscillating trend. The international device operating rate has declined, with most Iranian devices shut down due to gas restrictions, leading to a slight disturbance in imports. Domestically, the supply is loose, the coal - made profit is stable, and the MTO operation in the inland is stable. Although the Fed's interest - rate decision in December is uncertain and domestic commodities are fluctuating widely, the impact on methanol futures is weakening [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market oscillated, closing at 2067 (-10/+0.48%) [2]. - **Spot Market**: There are different quotes in production areas, consumption areas, southwest regions, and ports. For example, in production areas, the price in Inner Mongolia's southern line is 1940 yuan/ton, and in the northern line is 1960 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information As of 14:00 on December 10, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol during the period from December 4 to December 10, 2025, was 24.78 tons [3]. Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: The profit of coal - made methanol is around 260 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously loose [4]. - **Import Side**: The US dollar price has risen slightly. Most Iranian devices are shut down due to gas restrictions, and the non - Iranian operation rate has increased. The expected import volume in January is adjusted up to about 1.4 million tons [4]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, and the operation of some MTO devices is stable or under - loaded [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuates within a narrow range [4]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - sell 01 contract in the short term and pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions in the 05 contract [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7]. - **Options**: Sell call options [7].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡下跌，最终报收 1625（-20/-1.22%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价平稳，成交乏力，河南出厂报 1630-1650 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1670-1680 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1670-1680 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1580-1600 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1630-1640 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1520-1570 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，山东临沂复合肥样本生产企业尿素需求量 1880 吨，较上 周增加 670 吨，环比涨 55.37%。目前样本复合肥企业开工高位，尿素用量较大，暂时持 续适量采购，保持一定的尿素库存。 【逻辑分析】 1、单边：高空 2、套利：观望 大宗商品研究 主流地区出厂价下跌，市场情绪表现平稳，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价喜爱跌，成 交一般。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑，原 料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开 始出货，新单成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is approaching the end of the season, with a significant decline in the sugar - making ratio recently. The international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestically, sugar mills are in the peak of the crushing season, and the supply pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports and high production costs, the downward space of the price is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: The supply - side pressure of Brazilian sugar is easing as the season nears its end. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. In the domestic market, despite high import volumes and increased sales pressure, the price is likely to fluctuate at a low level due to high production costs [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes**: - The ISO predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 163 tons in the 2025/26 season. Datagro lowers its prediction of the surplus to 100 tons, citing early harvests in Brazil and more cane used for ethanol production. It also reduces the sugar production forecasts of Brazil and India. Meanwhile, major importers like China and Indonesia are increasing their purchases [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Situation**: - **Production Forecast**: Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 4,502 tons, slightly higher than in August and the second - highest in recent years [9]. - **Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while ethanol production increased [11]. - **Accumulated Production**: As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the accumulated sugar production in central - southern Brazil increased by 80 tons year - on - year, despite a decrease in the accumulated cane crushing volume [13]. - **Inventory and Exports**: In November 2025, Brazil's sugar exports decreased compared to the same period last year. As of November, the cumulative exports in the 2025/26 season decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. However, the daily average export volume in the first week of December increased by 21% compared to the whole month of December last year [17]. - **Thailand's Sugar Situation**: - In the 24/25 season, Thailand's sugar production increased by 128 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, sugar exports increased by 37.25% year - on - year, and from January to October 2025, exports increased by 139 tons year - on - year. The 25/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production and exports of 100 tons each [25]. - **India's Sugar Situation**: - As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season increased by 49.81% year - on - year. The cost of sugar production has risen, and the industry calls for an increase in the minimum selling price [32]. - **Domestic Sugar Situation**: - **Crushing Peak**: As of December 11, in the 25/26 season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, with a reduction in the designed cane - crushing capacity. As of November 30, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi and Yunnan has both decreased compared to the same period last year [35]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of sugar is relatively high [36]. - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased. It is expected that the sugar import volume in November will be about 40 tons, lower than the same period last year [44]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The data mainly includes the cumulative and bi - weekly cane crushing volume, sugar - making ratio, sugar production, inventory, and export volume in central - southern Brazil; the sugar production, export volume, and inventory in Thailand and India; the sugar production, sales, inventory, and import volume in the domestic market. However, the specific data has been summarized in the above - mentioned core logic analysis part [46][51][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn has a bumper harvest, but the export volume is increased. In the short term, the support for the US corn 03 contract at 430 cents per bushel is strong. Currently, the supply of corn in Northeast China is increasing, and the supply in North China is also rising. There is still room for the spot price of corn to decline. In the short term, corn prices will continue to fall. It is expected that the prices of 03 and 05 corn will still decline, but the decline of 07 corn is limited. Currently, operations can be carried out according to seasonal patterns, and the spot price is expected to continue to decline in late December [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and starch inventory has decreased, but it is still at a high level. The spot price of corn has started to decline, while the spot price of starch is strong, and the profit of North China starch factories has increased. In the future, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still rise. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to decline. It is expected that the 01 corn starch will follow the weak and volatile trend of corn [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US corn yield per unit in December is stable, and the export volume is increased. However, the production is at a high level. In the short term, the US corn is in a narrow and strong - side volatile trend, and the 03 contract has strong support at 430 cents per bushel. The in - quota tariff for importing US corn to China is 11%, and that for sorghum is 12%. Importing US corn has started to have profits, and the import profit from Brazil is relatively high. Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, the supply of corn has increased, but the port inventory is still low, and the port price is strong. It is expected that there will still be a wave of selling pressure for Northeast corn in mid - to - late December. In the short term, the supply of Northeast corn has increased, but downstream has replenished stocks due to rigid demand, resulting in a slight decline in Northeast corn prices. The supply of North China corn has increased, and the spot price of corn has continued to fall. The price difference between North China wheat and corn is still at a high level, and it is expected that the supply of corn will increase next week. It is expected that the supply at the northern ports will increase in the short term, and the purchase price will be lowered. There is still room for the 03 corn price to fall, but the decline of 07 corn is limited [4]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and starch inventory has decreased, but it is still at a high level. The spot price of corn has started to decline, while the spot price of starch is strong, and the profit of North China starch factories has increased. In the future, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still rise. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to decline. It is expected that the 01 corn starch will follow the weak and volatile trend of corn [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: The US corn has a bumper harvest, but the export volume is increased. In the short term, the support for the US corn 03 contract at 430 cents per bushel is strong. Currently, the supply of corn in Northeast China is increasing, and the supply in North China is also rising. There is still room for the spot price of corn to decline. In the short term, corn prices will continue to fall. It is expected that the prices of 03 and 05 corn will still decline, but the decline of 07 corn is limited. Currently, operations can be carried out according to seasonal patterns, and the spot price is expected to continue to decline in late December. Specific strategies include: trying to buy US corn 03 below 430 cents per bushel; short - selling 03 corn at a high price above 2240; long - buying 07 corn at a long - term price below 2260; conducting reverse arbitrage on 3 - 7 corn at a high price; and implementing a cumulative put strategy on 03 corn at a high price [4][5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International - **US Corn Supply and Demand and Price Trends**: In December, the yield per unit of US corn remained flat, and the export volume was increased. The US corn showed a strong - side volatile trend, and the 12 - contract had support at 430 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import tariff for US corn is 11%, and that for US sorghum is 12%. Calculated at an 11% tariff, the import cost of US corn is around 2274 yuan per ton, and the import profit is good. As of December 11, the price at the Guangdong port was 2370 yuan per ton, and the cost of corn imported from Brazil in January was 2177 yuan per ton, with an import profit of 283 yuan per ton [8][9]. - **US Corn Non - commercial Net Long Position and Ethanol Production**: As of November 10, the non - commercial net long position of US corn was 43,000 lots, showing an increase. The ethanol production in the United States has decreased. The US corn 03 is in a bottom - side volatile trend, and it has strong support at 430 cents per bushel [16]. Domestic - **Inventory and Consumption of Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises**: The corn inventory of feed enterprises has increased but is less than that of the same period last year. As of December 11, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 29.53 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 days and a year - on - year decrease of 2.51%. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From December 4 to December 10, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises across the country consumed 1.4167 million tons of corn, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous week. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased, and it is expected to continue to rise next week. As of December 11, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 294 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.8% [20][21]. - **Port Inventory**: The corn inventory at northern ports has increased, while the grain inventory at southern ports has decreased. As of December 5, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.531 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 162,000 tons. The shipping volume at the four ports on that Thursday was 808,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 273,000 tons. The domestic - trade corn inventory at the Guangdong port was 66,000 tons, a decrease of 115,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 249,000 tons, a decrease of 87,000 tons from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 199,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 508,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from the previous week; and the total grain was 1.022 million tons, a decrease of 195,000 tons [24]. - **Grain - selling Progress**: The grain - selling progress of domestic corn is faster than that of last year. As of December 11, the overall grain - selling progress was 40%, a week - on - week increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 7% [27][28]. - **Starch Market**: The operating rate of deep - processing has increased. From December 4 to December 10, the national corn processing volume was 635,700 tons, and the starch production was 331,100 tons, an increase of 6,200 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 62.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The spot price of North China corn has decreased, while the spot price of starch has increased, and the by - product price has remained stable. The enterprise profit has decreased. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was 29 yuan, an increase of 12 yuan from the previous week, and the profit in Shandong was 19 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from the previous week. Downstream提货 has increased, the operating rate has risen, and the starch inventory has decreased. It is expected that the starch inventory will rise next week. As of December 10, the corn starch inventory was 1.049 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.47%, a monthly decrease of 1.87%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [32]. - **Substitute Products**: The wheat price is basically stable. The arrival price in North China is basically 2,500 yuan per ton, and the price is strong. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The prices of North China and Northeast corn are weak, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between North China corn and the 01 corn contract has decreased [37]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From December 4 to December 11, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 120 yuan per head, an increase of 12 yuan per head from the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 252 yuan per head, a decrease of 9 yuan per head from the previous week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.07 yuan per chicken, compared with - 0.1 yuan per chicken last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.51 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.48 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.45 yuan per catty last week [42][48]. - **Deep - processing of Corn Starch**: The operating rate of starch sugar: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 47.17%, an increase of 2.99% from the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 50.37%, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills: This week, the operating rate of corrugated paper was 67.81%, an increase of 0.39% from the previous week, and the operating rate of containerboard was 70.47%, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous week [51]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitute Products**: The price trends of corn and substitute products are presented in various price charts, including the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port, the ex - factory price of starch in Weifang, the price difference between wheat and corn, and the price difference between sorghum and corn [53][54][57][58][59]. - **Basis and Spread of Corn and Corn Starch**: The report also provides data on the basis and spread of corn and corn starch, such as the 01 basis of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, etc. [61].

大型油厂开始收购 花生盘面高位震荡 228/210/172 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | 181/181/181 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 期权策略：可以尝试卖出pk603-C-8200期权策略。 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 花生策略推荐 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 交易逻辑：花生成交量减少，河南通货花生价格偏强，山东花 ...

鸡蛋周报：需求表现一般 蛋价稳中有落 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 基 础 色 第二部分周度数据追踪 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 辅 助 色 137/137/137 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价2.8元/斤，较上周五下跌0.12元/斤，主销区均价3.13元/斤，较上周五下跌0.08元/斤。本周主产区价 格先跌后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to continue trading in a range due to limited fundamental contradictions. The global cotton production and consumption adjustments are minor, with期末库存 remaining relatively stable [8]. - In the domestic market, cotton procurement is mostly finished. Short - term downstream demand shows little change. New cotton sales are better than in previous years, and cotton prices are expected to remain oscillating with an upward bias [29]. - For trading strategies, in the short - term, cotton is expected to oscillate. For futures, it is expected that US cotton will trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate. For options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [45][47]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The US cotton market has limited fundamental contradictions and is expected to trade in a range. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.0085 million tons, accounting for 65.7% of the estimated annual output, 11% slower year - on - year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are relatively high [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week ending November 13, 2025, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 42,600 tons, down 36% week - on - week but up 10% compared to the four - week average and 22% year - on - year. The weekly shipment volume was 25,700 tons, down 17% week - on - week, 27% compared to the four - week average, but up 1% year - on - year [8]. - **CFTC**: As of December 5, 2025, the number of unpriced contracts on the ON - CALL 2603 contract by sellers increased by 692 to 22,408, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week. The total number of unpriced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 season increased by 727 to 40,020, equivalent to 910,000 tons, also an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Brazil**: According to CONAB's December 2025/26 production forecast, the total cotton production in Brazil in 2024/25 is expected to be 4.076 million tons, remaining stable month - on - month. The 2025/26 production is expected to be 3.96 million tons, a decrease of 68,000 tons month - on - month [8]. - **India**: The CAI's report shows that as of November 30, 2025, compared with the previous month's assessment, India's 2025/26 cotton production increased by 80,000 tons, imports increased by 90,000 tons, exports increased by 20,000 tons, and domestic demand decreased by 90,000 tons, leading to a 230,000 - ton increase in ending stocks [8]. - **Global**: According to the USDA's December global cotton production and consumption forecast, the global cotton production in December was 26.08 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons month - on - month. The total consumption decreased by 60,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, and the ending stocks remained relatively stable at 16.54 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply**: As of December 10, 2025, the cumulative cotton inspection volume reached 5.084203 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.94%. As of November 28, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 4.1794 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 379,300 tons (9.98%) [29]. - **Demand**: As of December 4, 2025, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 2.736 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, 1.633 million tons more than the average of the past four years. As of December 11, 2025, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.3%, unchanged from the previous week. The yarn inventory of spinning mills continued to increase, with inventory pressure emerging [29]. Option Trading Strategy - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options decreased slightly. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7094, and the volume PCR was 0.8660. Both call and put option volumes decreased. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [43]. Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The supply of new cotton is abundant in the short - term, and demand orders are generally weak, with most downstream orders being small and scattered. Considering that previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, cotton is expected to oscillate in the short - term [45]. - **Strategies**: It is expected that US cotton will trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate. For arbitrage, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [47]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal - External Price Difference**: The chart shows the historical data of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend of cotton futures contracts [50][51]. - **Mid - stream Situation**: Data on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, full - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric are presented [54]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Information on the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, industrial cotton inventory of spinning mills, and state reserve inventory is provided [56]. - **Basis**: The basis data of cotton futures contracts (January, May, September) and the basis of US upland cotton are shown [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the ex - warehouse speed of late Fuji apples in production areas was slow, and the trading atmosphere was light. The arrival volume in the sales area decreased, and the sales were affected by substitutes. The inventory was at a low level compared to the same period last year, and the demand was average. It is expected that the apple price will fluctuate at a high level. The apple fundamentals are relatively strong due to the decline in production, poor high - quality fruit rate, and low cold - storage inventory [7][12][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Apple Spot Analysis - This week, the ex - warehouse speed of late Fuji apples in production areas was slow. The price in Gansu and Liaoning decreased, and other production areas were stable. The sales area's arrival volume decreased, and the sales were affected by citrus fruits [7]. - In Shandong, the ex - warehouse atmosphere was not strong, with sporadic transactions. In Shaanxi, the shipment was relatively cold, and the low - price goods were sold well [7]. - Main production area prices: In Penglai, 65 - 70 general goods were 2.2 - 2.3 yuan/jin, and 75 first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods were 3.4 - 3.6 yuan/jin. In Qixia, 80 above cream Fuji was 1.8 - 2.2 yuan/jin, and late Fuji 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods were 3.7 - 4.5 yuan/jin. In Luochuan, 70 above semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods were 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior goods were 2.2 yuan/jin [7]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of December 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 54.65%, 7.22 percentage points lower than the same period last year. This week, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.35 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 2.17%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 55.09%, and it decreased by 0.24 percentage points. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 53.12%, and it decreased by 0.36 percentage points [12]. - As of December 10, 2025, the national main production area apple cold - storage inventory was 758.55 million tons, a decrease of 4.97 million tons from last week [12]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrivals decreased. The market was generally light, and the enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers to purchase was not high [15]. - On December 11, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.51 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, at a high level in recent years [15]. - During the 2025 - 2026 production season's purchase stage, the profit statistics of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants were suspended [15]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The apple production decreased this year, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, the preservation was difficult, and the cold - storage inventory data was low. The cold - storage apple inventory peak was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong [16]. - Unilateral: The new apple quality is relatively poor, which supports the price, but the recent demand is average. It is expected that the apple trend will mainly fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16].

供需双弱，合金底部震荡 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端硅铁开工率与产量再度双双下降，如我们此前报告所述，随着产区电价整体上涨，厂家亏损态势加剧，硅铁产量 重回下降趋势。需求方面，钢联数据显示，近期钢材库存虽然仍在下降，但钢材产量与表需双双下降，对原料端需求仍有压力。成 本端方面，产区铁合金电价继续稳中偏强走势，对硅铁有所支撑。总体来看，硅铁供需双降，成本端有所支撑，本周预计延续底部 震荡走势。 锰硅方面，供应端锰硅样本企业开工率与产量小幅反弹，但在目前的利润水平下，反弹态势预 ...

双焦：蒙古国推动增加煤炭出口，市场预期偏弱 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2025年12月12日 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 逻辑分析 近期盘面焦煤延续下跌趋势，现货价格表现亦偏弱，价格下跌为主，市场情绪较差。当前蒙煤通关车次处于高位，同时蒙 古国政府仍在积极推动扩大煤炭出口，通关车次还有继续增加的可能。在蒙煤增量预期的冲击下，国内煤承压下行，资金 和情绪则放大了盘面的波动。虽然年底国内部分煤矿完成生产任务会有减产检修，但该减量会被进口蒙煤补充，焦煤供需 改善有限。预计近期盘面双焦延续弱势运行，关注后续下游冬储补库进度及蒙煤实际通关量。 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 数据来源：Mysteel 银河期货 单边：延续偏弱运行，谨慎者空单可逐步止盈，关注后续下游冬储补库进度及蒙煤实际通关量。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。 (观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUT ...