1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand and inventory situation of rubber shows a complex pattern. The supply of natural rubber at home and abroad is decreasing, while the demand from downstream tire enterprises is relatively stable. The inventory of both natural and synthetic rubber is increasing. The recent rise of synthetic rubber is mainly due to the movement of chemical products, and the contradiction in naphtha makes BR and ethylene glycol more prominent. In 2026, the ENSO index indicates that the supply of natural rubber may increase, and the investment in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing suggests that the production pressure of synthetic rubber is not large. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber before the third quarter of 2026 [2][3][62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Rubber Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Natural rubber has a dual - decline in domestic and foreign supply. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan have stopped tapping, and overseas, some regions are near the end of the tapping season, with only southern Thailand in the peak production season. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber has a slight contraction, with the average operating load of domestic high - cis cis - butadiene plants at 75.75%, 0.15 percentage points lower than last week, and some plants continue to be shut down, with a weekly maintenance loss of about 2730 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The rigid demand of downstream tire enterprises is generally stable. For natural rubber, the tire enterprise's operation fluctuates little, and the lower rubber price stimulates downstream purchasing. For cis - butadiene rubber, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises is 62.70%, slightly down 0.14 percentage points from last week but 20.70 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a significant improvement in year - on - year demand [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate. The total inventory in Qingdao is 57.91 tons, an increase of 1.52 tons (2.7% increase) from the previous period. The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber also rises, with a weekly increase of 6.83% [2]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side trading**: Try to short a small amount of the RU main 05 contract, and set the stop - loss at the previous high of 16390 points; try to short a small amount of the NR main 03 contract, and set the stop - loss at the recent high of 13150 points; wait and see for the BR main 03 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the BR2605 - RU2605 at - 3195 points, and move the stop - loss up to the recent high of - 3340 points [4]. - **Options**: Hold the RU2605 call option 16500 at 609 points, and set the stop - loss at the previous low of 529 points [4]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Apparent Consumption - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of butadiene increased to 55.63 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 17.4%, and two consecutive months of marginal decrease, which is beneficial to the BR - RU spread. The apparent consumption of cis - butadiene rubber decreased to 13.11 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9%, and marginal decrease, which is also beneficial to the BR - RU spread [13]. - In December 2025, the net import of domestic butadiene increased to 5.50 tons (1.65 tons after a 30% conversion), and the net import of domestic cis - butadiene rubber increased to 0.12 tons, with a total of 1.77 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 tons, slightly negative for the BR - RU spread. The domestic butadiene production increased to 50.01 tons for three consecutive months (15.00 tons after a 30% conversion), and the total production of cis - butadiene in China and Japan increased to 15.99 tons, with a total of 30.97 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and three consecutive months of marginal decrease, which is beneficial to the BR - RU spread [15]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Inventory - Since January, the port inventory of domestic butadiene has increased for five consecutive months to 4.13 tons (1.24 tons after a 30% conversion), the factory inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has decreased to 2.72 tons, and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders has increased for two consecutive months to 0.71 tons, with a total of 4.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.3%. There has been six consecutive months of marginal inventory reduction, which is beneficial to the BR - RU spread [25]. 3.5 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Supply Scale and Cost Support - In December 2025, the apparent consumption of BR&BR (calculated) increased to 32.7 tons. In January, the explicit inventory of BD&BR increased for five consecutive months to 4.7 tons. The sum of the above data with a one - month lag is 37.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, and six consecutive months of marginal decrease, which is beneficial to the BR - RU spread [31]. - In January, Brent crude oil rebounded to $63.5 per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%, and four consecutive months of marginal decline, which is negative for the BR - RU spread [31]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Capacity Utilization and Profit - The profit of the carbon - four extraction process is 2693 yuan/ton, an increase of 317 yuan/ton from the previous period; the profit of the oxidative dehydrogenation process is 872 yuan/ton, an increase of 191 yuan/ton from the previous period. The cost pressure of butadiene has been slightly relieved, and the prices of suppliers are firm, which affects the improvement of the profits of different processes [41]. - As of January 22, 2026, taking Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber as an example, the theoretical cost of cis - butadiene rubber has further increased to 12697 yuan/ton, and the theoretical production profit has decreased to - 697 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term reduction in overseas butadiene supply and domestic butadiene export transactions, the cost pressure of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to be difficult to significantly relieve, and the production profit is difficult to improve significantly [41]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Processing Margin - In January, the margin of domestic butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation units has improved for two consecutive months to - 50 yuan/ton, and the margin of domestic butadiene carbon - four extraction method has increased for two consecutive months to 1877 yuan/ton. The production margin of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has decreased for two consecutive months to 211 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 1167 yuan/ton, the largest increase since February 2024. The BD margin - BR margin is reported at + 0.17 million yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 0.37 million yuan/ton, and has been deteriorating for two consecutive months, which is negative for the BR - RU spread [45][50]. 3.8 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Margin Variance and Import Margin - In January, the FOB price of butadiene in South Korea has increased for two consecutive months to $930.0 per ton, and the CFR price of butadiene in China has increased for two consecutive months to $965.0 per ton. The margin of BD to South Korea is reported at - $35.0 per ton, a year - on - year increase of $7.5 per ton, and five consecutive months of marginal increase, which is beneficial to the BR - RU spread [56]. - The variance of the three margins is reported at 7.3×10^5, a year - on - year decrease of 188.2%, and has been stable for two consecutive months, which is negative for the BR - RU spread [56]. 3.9 Rubber Supply - Synthetic Rubber Production vs. Natural Rubber Climate - Although the valuation of the chemical industry has been weakening due to over - supply during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the BR - RU spread can offset most of the macro and consumption disturbances and reflect the supply differences between synthetic and natural rubber. The ENSO index indicates that the supply of natural rubber may increase in the first half of 2026, and the investment in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing suggests that the production pressure of synthetic rubber is not large. It is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber before the third quarter of 2026 [62]. 3.10 Natural Rubber Supply - ANRPC Member Countries' Production and Export - In October, the total production of natural rubber in the ANRPC increased to 114.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, with the growth rate narrowing. The total export of natural rubber in the ANRPC increased to 82.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%, and the growth rate has been narrowing for four consecutive months [68]. 3.11 Micro - consumption - The average year - on - year increase in the automobile production of China and South Korea is 7.7%, with ten consecutive months of accelerated production increase, which is beneficial to the single - side trading of BR [69]. - In November, the production of domestic passenger cars increased for four consecutive months to 3.144 million, a record high; in October, the production of South Korean passenger cars decreased to 285,000. The combined production of passenger cars in China and South Korea with a one - month lag is 3.429 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In November, the production of domestic commercial vehicles increased to 388,000; in October, the production of South Korean commercial vehicles decreased for two consecutive months to 18,000. The combined production of commercial vehicles in China and South Korea with a one - month lag is 406,000, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [74]. - In November, the export value of domestic tires increased to $1.82 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, and four consecutive months of marginal decrease, which is negative for the single - side trading of BR [74]. 3.12 Micro - consumption - Tires - For semi - steel tires, the all - season tire market is weak, with sufficient supply, and the channels mainly replenish goods according to rigid demand. The snow - tire market is in the stage of terminal demand digestion, and the channels mainly replenish the shortage. For all - steel tires, the market transaction continues to be weak. Due to the off - season demand and capital pressure, the purchasing willingness of merchants at all levels is low, and they mainly digest the existing inventory. As of January 15, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 47.92 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.56 days and a year - on - year increase of 5.49 days; the average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 46.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 days and a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 days [81]. 3.13 Macro - consumption - Since December 2025, the CSI 1000 index has fallen for two consecutive months to 7321 points, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%. In December 2025, the global automobile industry index has rebounded for two consecutive months to - 22.0 points, a year - on - year increase of 35.8 points, with the growth rate narrowing. In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the domestic rubber and plastic industry decreased to 16.65 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%, with the growth rate narrowing. In November 2025, the cumulative production of domestic and foreign tires increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with two consecutive months of marginal increase [90].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum and alumina markets, providing in - depth analysis of market conditions, supply - demand balance, and price trends [1][88] Aluminum Market Investment Rating - Not explicitly mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Aluminum has significant fundamental support with a continuous global supply gap and low supply elasticity, and new demand growth points during the energy transition. However, due to strong market expectations, prices have broken through previous highs ahead of schedule. The short - term market is expected to cool down before the Spring Festival but will maintain an overall oscillating and upward - trending pattern, with a mid - term upward trend remaining unchanged [3] Summary by Section LME Market Performance - Analyzes aluminum import and export profits, LME aluminum speculative fund net positions, LME aluminum price trends, overseas mainstream consumer spot trade premiums, LME aluminum spot premiums and discounts, and LME aluminum inventory [5][6][7][8][9] Aluminum Inventory Performance - Discusses domestic and international aluminum inventory changes, including social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, bonded area aluminum ingot inventory, and LME aluminum total inventory [15][16][17][18] Spread Conditions - Covers Shanghai - Guangdong spread, mainstream consumer base spreads, mainstream consumer price spreads, and monthly spreads [20][24] Aluminum Primary Processed Product Processing Fees - Analyzes processing fees of primary aluminum products such as aluminum rods in Shandong, aluminum sheets and strips in Henan, and the scrap - refined aluminum spread [28][30] Recycled Aluminum Alloy Spot Conditions - Examines recycled aluminum alloy production, prices, import profits, and inventory [36][37][38][42][45] Supply Side - Analyzes global and domestic electrolytic aluminum supply, including production, profits, net imports, and capacity changes [51][52][53][54][56][58] Aluminum Processing Capacity Utilization - Discusses the capacity utilization rates of various aluminum processing sectors such as profiles, sheets and strips, foils, cables, and alloys [60][61] Downstream Demand - Analyzes downstream demand in industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, real estate, power, home appliances, and exports [63][68][72][75][79][82] Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Outlook - Provides a long - term supply - demand balance table for aluminum, including global, overseas, and domestic production, demand, and balance [85][86] Alumina Market Investment Rating - Not explicitly mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Alumina is in an overall surplus situation. Although previous warrant transactions absorbed some surplus, they also pressured near - term prices. The market should focus on high - cost capacity utilization rate changes and new capacity construction progress. The price may rebound with market sentiment but is still under pressure, especially if new capacity is put into operation as scheduled [90] Summary by Section Alumina Strategy Outlook - The trading strategy suggests that alumina prices will be under pressure after a short - term rebound, and it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options [93] Warrant and Inventory - Analyzes the relationship between alumina warrants, basis, and inventory, and mentions the potential for short - term production cuts [94][99] Cost and Profit - Analyzes the cost and profit of alumina in different regions, including weighted average costs, regional costs, and profitability [102][105][106] Downstream Inventory - Discusses the inventory situation of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises and alumina enterprises [108] Alumina Import and Export - Analyzes alumina import and export data, import and export profits, and overseas market transactions [111][112][113][114][115] New Capacity Progress - Analyzes the new capacity construction plans for domestic and overseas alumina, with a focus on the progress in the first quarter of 2026 [116][117][118][119] Guinea Bauxite - Analyzes the cost of Guinea bauxite, policy trends, supply situation, and price changes [120][123][126][127] Alumina Supply - Demand Balance - Provides a long - term supply - demand balance table for alumina, including global, overseas, and domestic production, demand, and balance [136]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for steel is marginally weakening, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate before the holiday. The market may be affected by market sentiment, leading to price volatility. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of macro - news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [1][7] - The trading strategy suggests a unilateral trend of oscillating and strengthening, recommends short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at high levels, and holding the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coils to coking coal. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [9] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 199.55 tons (+9.25), and that of hot - rolled coils was 305.41 tons (-2.95). The daily average of blast furnace hot metal from 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons (+0.09), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 34.4% (-1.6). The cost of electric arc furnaces has been increasing, leading to a decline in profits and a decrease in capacity utilization. Long - process steel profits remain profitable, and hot metal production has continued to increase this week [4] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 199.55 tons (+9.25), and that for hot - rolled coils was 309.96 tons (-4.20). The temperature in the East China region has dropped, and the downstream capital availability has deteriorated. The demand for hot - rolled coils is still strong due to pre - holiday inventory replenishment in the manufacturing industry, and the export situation in January is still strong. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment in China from January to December has continued to decline, and the real estate market is still weak. The manufacturing PMI has continued to be positive, and the production and sales of automobiles are strong, while the production schedule of white goods has declined [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of rebar increased by 14.03 tons, with an increase of 6.32 tons in the factory warehouse and 7.71 tons in the social warehouse. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.55 tons, with an increase of 0.11 tons in the factory warehouse and a decrease of 4.66 tons in the social warehouse. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 10.07 tons [4] - **Outlook**: Before the holiday, steel prices are expected to remain volatile. Although the downstream capital availability has improved slightly, the overall demand is still weak. The raw material cost has support, but the continuous resumption of hot metal production restricts the upward space of steel prices [7] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: The summary price of rebar in Shanghai on Friday was 3270 yuan (unchanged), and that in Beijing was 3140 yuan (+10). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3290 yuan (+10), and that of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coils was 3170 yuan (unchanged) [13] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils are presented through charts, including the basis of 05 contracts in Shanghai, the spread between 05 and 10 contracts, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [15][16][19] - **Profit**: The long - process steel mill profits are shown through charts. The cash profits of East China and Tangshan rebar, as well as Tianjin and East China hot - rolled coils, are presented. The short - process steel mill profits, specifically the flat - rate and off - peak - rate electric furnace profits in East China, are also provided. The flat - rate electric furnace profit in East China is - 141.60 yuan (-56.3), and the off - peak - rate electric furnace profit is 23 yuan (-56) [23][26][27][30][31] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In 2025, GDP grew by 5%. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in China was 5.2%, the year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%. The central government plans to implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026 [33] - **Social Financing and Investment**: In December, the new social financing was 22075 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 22.64%. The new RMB loans were 9100 billion yuan. The investment growth rate of fixed assets from January to December 2025 continued to decline rapidly, and the real estate market was still a drag on domestic demand [38] - **Real Estate Data**: The decline in real estate development investment, new construction, completion, and sales data has narrowed, but it still maintains a negative growth of about 20 - 30%. The trading volume of commercial housing in key cities is presented through charts [40][45] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons (+0.09), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 34.4% (-1.6). The small - sample production of rebar was 199.55 tons (+9.25), and that of hot - rolled coils was 305.41 tons (-2.95) [54][59] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 185.52 tons (a 6% year - on - year decrease in the lunar calendar), and that for hot - rolled coils was 309.96 tons (a 2.39% year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar). The building material demand and cement usage are also presented. The export situation of steel in January is still strong [62][73] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of rebar increased, while the total inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased. The inventory trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils are presented through charts [78][79][80][81]

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: India's Sugar Production Increases, Thailand's Decreases, and International Sugar Prices Fluctuate at the Bottom [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, while domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to consider buying at the lower end of the range and selling at the higher end. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is suggested [3][4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Single-sided Trading**: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. Domestic sugar prices will fluctuate within a range, and investors can consider buying at the lower end and selling at the higher end [4] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4] - **Options**: Sell put options [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market** - **Global Supply and Demand Pattern**: In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 163,000 tons. The sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% year-on-year to 181.77 million tons, while consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. In the 2024/25 sugar season, the global sugar market had a supply-demand gap of 292,000 tons. The 2026/27 sugar season is expected to have no significant increase in production, with a high probability of remaining at a high level or slightly decreasing [9] - **Brazil**: The sugarcane crushing season in Brazil is coming to an end. In the second half of December, the sugar production in the central-southern region decreased by 14.93% year-on-year. The 2025/26 sugar season's cumulative sugar production increased by 0.86% year-on-year, but the overall increase may fall short of expectations. The ethanol production and sales situation shows that the current alcohol-to-sugar price is about 17.57 cents per pound, and the alcohol-to-oil ratio in São Paulo is around 0.705. As of December 30, the sugar inventory in the central-southern region increased year-on-year, and the export volume decreased year-on-year. In the future, Brazil's sugar exports will experience a seasonal decline, reducing the global supply pressure [10][18][22] - **Thailand**: In the 25/26 sugar season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase slightly by 1 million tons, and the export volume is expected to increase by 1 million tons. As of January 17, 2026, the cumulative sugar production decreased year-on-year. Looking ahead to the 2026/27 season, Thailand's sugar production may decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons [28] - **India**: As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season reached 15.909 million tons, an increase of nearly 22% year-on-year. The final production may increase significantly year-on-year and may exceed expectations [32] - **Domestic Market** - **Production**: In the 2025/26 sugar season, as of December 31, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased year-on-year, while in Yunnan, it increased year-on-year [36] - **Sales and Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi decreased year-on-year, and the inventory decreased slightly year-on-year. In Yunnan, the cumulative sugar sales increased year-on-year, and the inventory increased year-on-year [39] - **Imports**: In December 2025, China's sugar imports increased year-on-year, and the imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year-on-year. The import profit is relatively high, but most of the imports have already been priced, so the correlation between domestic and foreign price differences is not significant [44][46]

Report Information - Report Title: "Peanut Prices of General Goods Are Strong, and Peanut Futures Rebound from the Bottom" [1] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [1] Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of peanuts has increased, the price of general peanuts in Henan is strong, the price of peanuts in Shandong is stable, and the price of peanuts in Northeast China has risen. The price of imported peanuts is stable, but the import volume has decreased significantly. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, the purchase price is stable, and the profit from oil extraction is stable. However, downstream consumption remains weak, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills has increased. It is recommended to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option strategy, short - sell 03 peanuts at high prices, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for the spread between months [5][6]. Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Option Strategy**: Sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option strategy [5] - **Trading Logic**: The trading volume of peanuts has increased. The price of general peanuts in Henan is around 3.65 yuan per catty, and the price of peanuts in Northeast China is around 4.65 yuan per catty. The price of imported peanuts is stable, with imported Sudan refined rice at 8600 yuan per ton, and the import volume has decreased significantly. The market expects the opening of imports from Senegal, with a rumored import price of 7400 yuan per ton. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, the purchase price is stable, the spot price of peanut meal is stable, the price of peanut oil is stable, and the profit from oil extraction in oil mills is stable. Downstream consumption remains weak, the inventory of peanuts in oil mills has increased, and the inventory of peanut oil has continued to rise. The market is trading on the increase in the spot price of peanuts. The price difference between peanuts in Northeast China and Henan remains high, but there is an abundant supply of oil - used peanuts in Henan. The spot price of peanuts in Northeast China has rebounded, the price of peanuts from Senegal is low, the cost of warehouse receipts is currently between 7900 - 8000 yuan per ton, and the futures price is basically the same as the cost of warehouse receipts. The willingness to take delivery of 03 peanut warehouse receipts is weak. This week, the 03 peanut futures have rebounded, and the spread between 3 - 5 has fluctuated within a narrow range [6] - **Strategy**: Short - sell 03 peanuts at high prices [6] - **Spread between Months**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Peanut Prices - **Domestic Peanuts**: The price of peanuts in Henan is stable, and the price of peanuts in Northeast China has risen. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 3.5 yuan per catty, remaining stable compared to last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 3.7 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.1 yuan per catty compared to last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.65 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.05 yuan per catty compared to last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.7 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.05 yuan per catty compared to last week. The trading volume of general peanuts is average, and the price of peanuts in Henan is relatively stable [11] - **Oil Mill Oil - Used Peanuts**: The purchase price of oil mills is stable, with the basic purchase price ranging from 6900 - 7900 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [11] - **Imported Peanuts**: The price of new Sudanese peanuts is 8600 yuan per ton, and the price of Indian 50/60 peanuts is reported at 8000 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [11] Domestic Demand - **Oil Mill Operating Rate**: The operating rate of oil mills has increased. As of January 22, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 47.22%, a week - on - week increase of 2.45% [15] - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The arrival volume of oil mills this week is 89,000 tons, a decrease of 5300 tons compared to last week. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 177,400 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons compared to last week. The peanut oil inventory is 49,600 tons, an increase of 1000 tons compared to last week [15] Pressing Profit - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanut oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal is stable, and the price of peanut oil is stable. As a result, the pressing profit of oil mills is 190 yuan per ton, remaining the same as last week (Steel Union data) [19] - **Peanut Oil Price**: The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,400 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,300 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [19] - **Peanut Meal**: Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is stable. This week, it is 3100 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [19] Basis and Spread between Months - **Spread between Months**: This week, due to the decline in the price of 05 peanuts, the spread between 5 - 10 peanuts is weak, stabilizing around - 330 yuan [26] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The basis has declined [26] Peanut Imports - **Peanut Kernel Imports**: In December, the import volume of peanut kernels was 25,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 252,000 tons, a 66% decrease compared to the same period last year [30] - **Peanut Kernel Exports**: In December, the export volume of peanut kernels was 58,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December was 212,000 tons, a 47% increase compared to the same period last year [30] - **Peanut Oil Imports**: In December, the import volume of peanut oil was 37,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of peanut oil from January to December was 402,000 tons, a 58% increase compared to last year [30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, urea continues its oscillating pattern with low - price procurement. Attention should be paid to external disturbances. Mainstream factory ex - factory prices in most regions are stable, but market sentiment is low and trading is weak. Industrial compound fertilizer开工率 has increased, but raw material and finished - product inventories are high, and grass - roots orders are scarce. Agricultural procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and traders are starting to sell due to fear of high prices. New orders are weak [4]. - Domestic gas - head maintenance devices have partially returned, and the daily output has rebounded to over 200,000 tons, running at a high level. The Indian tender result is CFR $420 per ton, with a total counter - offer of around 960,000 tons from the east and west coasts. Although international prices have been rising, the domestic - international price difference is still large, but there are no new domestic quotas, so the overall impact is limited [4]. - The compound fertilizer开工率 in the Central Plains and Northeast regions is stable. Compound fertilizer enterprises that stopped production due to environmental protection in Hebei and Henan have resumed production, and enterprises with low raw material inventories are purchasing at low prices. The procurement progress of off - season storage enterprises has basically reached over 70%, and the procurement intensity will gradually slow down [4]. - As the ex - factory price rises, downstream resistance increases, traders sell due to fear of high prices, agricultural procurement enthusiasm cools down, factory orders weaken, and ex - factory quotes start to decline. The futures price decline further cools the spot market sentiment. Although the overall order - receiving situation has improved after the urea manufacturers lower the ex - factory quotes, downstream customers in high - price sales areas still resist. In the short term, it will continue to oscillate, and cautious operation is recommended [4]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, short at high prices and do not chase short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for over - the - counter trading, wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply - National**: In the 3rd week of 2026 (20260115 - 0121), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 95.30%, a week - on - week increase of 0.70%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 54.07%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. There were 3 new coal - based device shutdowns and 4 coal - based enterprise shutdown devices resumed production during the period [5]. - **Supply - Shandong**: In the 3rd week of 2026 (20260115 - 0121), the capacity utilization rate of Shandong urea was 97.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The Ming Shui device had a slight production reduction, and other enterprises' production was basically normal [5]. - **Demand - Melamine**: In the 4th week of 2026 (20260116 - 0122), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 63.65%, an increase of 1.47 percentage points from the previous week [5]. - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer**: From 20260116 - 0122, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer in this cycle was 42.96%, a week - on - week increase of 2.88 percentage points [5]. - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer Urea Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,840 tons, an increase of 460 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 33.33% [5]. - **Demand - Northeast Arrival Volume**: From 20260116 - 20260123, the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. Downstream factories and traders mainly purchase low - price goods for rigid demand and resist price increases [5]. - **Demand - Advance Receipts**: As of January 21, 2026, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.88 days, a decrease of 0.18 days from the previous cycle, a week - on - week decrease of 2.97% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: On January 21, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.07%. The inventory reduction was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of January 22, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal rebounded, the price of Yulin pulverized coal was weak, the urea spot price increased, and the urea production profit expanded. The fixed - bed production profit was 70 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry production profit was 150 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 390 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded, the basis was around - 80 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton [5]

Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report on methanol, dated January 23, 2026, from the research institute of Galaxy Futures [1][8][10] Market Review - The futures market saw a significant rally, closing at 2298 (+66/+2.96%) [3] - In the spot market, prices varied by region, with production areas having prices ranging from 1770 - 2020 yuan/ton, consumption areas from 2020 - 2120 yuan/ton, and ports from 2220 - 2260 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - From January 17 - 23, 2026, international methanol production was 887,359 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons from last week, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.83%, up 1.34% from last week. The main change was the shutdown of Petronas' No. 3 plant [4] Logic Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, domestic supply is abundant with high and stable domestic开工率. The US dollar price rose slightly, most Iranian plants were shut down due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian开工率 decreased, and the overall external market开工率 was low. The import forecast for January was about 120 tons, and for February it was revised up to about 80 tons [5] - Demand side: MTO装置开工率 dropped significantly, with many large - scale MTO plants shutting down or operating at partial capacity [5] - Inventory: Port inventories decreased due to reduced imports from shipping closures, while inland enterprise inventories fluctuated slightly [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short at high levels (monitor Middle East situation) [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [7] Related Charts - The charts show data on methanol port inventories, enterprise inventories, and various开工率 from 2023 - 2026 [8][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol supply remains loose. The US dollar price has a small increase, with most Iranian plants shut down due to gas restrictions, and the overall overseas market is at a low operating level. The MTO device operating rate has dropped significantly. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the basis is relatively stable; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Considering the overall situation, although the coal price is weakly fluctuating and the domestic supply is loose, the unstable Middle - East situation and the strong operation of domestic chemical products provide strong support for methanol [4]. - Trading strategies include: for single - side trading, gradually build long positions for the 05 contract on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply**: The coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, with continuous domestic supply. The US dollar price has a small increase, most Iranian devices are shut down due to gas restrictions, the non - Iranian operating rate has dropped, and the overall overseas operating rate is at a low level. The import volume in January is expected to be around 120 tons, and the import volume in February is expected to be revised up to around 80 tons. The coal price is weakly fluctuating, and the domestic supply is loose [4]. - **Demand**: The MTO device operating rate has dropped significantly, with multiple large - scale MTO devices shut down or operating at a low load. The inland MTO operating rate is stable, and some CTOs make external purchases [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has decreased due to the reduction of imported arrivals caused by navigation closures, and the basis is relatively stable; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading: gradually build long positions for the 05 contract on dips; Arbitrage: pay attention to positive spreads; Over - the - counter market: sell put options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of January 22, the overall domestic methanol device operating load is 77.41%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.28 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region is 88.44%, a decrease of 1.01 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.74 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol is 70.91%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From January 10 - 16, 2026, the international methanol (excluding China) production is 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1,190 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate is 59.41%, a decrease of 0.08% from last week. The Petronas No. 2 device has restarted, and the Indonesian device is under maintenance [5]. - **Supply - Import**: From January 15 - 21, 2026, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 28.49 tons, including 26.35 tons of foreign vessels and 2.14 tons of domestic vessels (1.41 tons in Jiangsu and 0.73 tons in Guangdong) [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of January 22, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 44.38%, a decrease of 9.46 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate is 85.15%, with the Zhejiang Xingxing MTO device remaining shut down and the load of some enterprises continuing to decrease [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is 5.25%, a month - on - month increase of 40.37%. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is 80.67%, and the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.51% [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 6.27 tons, an increase of 1.63 tons from the previous statistical date, with a month - on - month increase of 35.13% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The production enterprise inventory is 43.83 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 23.83 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of January 21, 2026, the total methanol port inventory is 145.75 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China has decreased by 1.36 tons, and the inventory in South China has increased by 3.58 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: The chemical coal in the northwest region is stable, the inland methanol auction price is weak, the coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia is around 390 yuan/ton, and the profit in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The port - north line spread is 330 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong spread is 140 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis is stable [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang is 2,260 yuan/ton (+30), and the price in the north line is 1,770 yuan/ton (-50) [8].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report on January 23, 2026 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [7] - Contact Information: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [7] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated widely, closing at 1788 (+7/+0.39%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices increased in some areas, and order intake weakened. Henan's factory price was 1690 - 1700 yuan/ton, Shandong's small - particle factory price was 1710 - 1730 yuan/ton, Hebei's small - particle factory price was 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, Shanxi's medium and small - particle factory price was 1620 - 1670 yuan/ton, Anhui's small - particle factory price was 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia's factory price was 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On January 23, urea industry's daily production was 20.48 tons, a decrease of 0.03 from the previous working day and an increase of 1.46 tons from the same period last year. The current开工率 was 87.10%, a 2.07% increase from 87.00% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Mainstream areas' factory prices were generally stable, market sentiment cooled, and transactions weakened. In Shandong, factory quotes were firm, but new orders decreased. In Henan, the market sentiment was average, and the factory price followed the increase, but order intake decreased. In the delivery area, the factory price was firm, but new orders were weak. The daily production of urea in China has returned to over 200,000 tons, running at a high level in the same period of history. The result of the Indian tender in the international market was CFR420 US dollars/ton, with a total counter - offer of around 960,000 tons, far from the initial tender volume of 1.5 million tons. The domestic and international price difference was still large, but there were no new quotas in China, so the overall impact was limited. The compound fertilizer开工率 in the Central Plains and Northeast regions was stable, but due to the large backlog of finished product inventory, some compound fertilizer factories in Henan stopped production, and the compound fertilizer and board factories in Linyi, Shandong reduced their loads. The raw material inventory was generally high, and only low - price purchases were maintained. The reserve progress of off - season storage enterprises has basically reached over 70%, and the later procurement intensity will gradually slow down. As the factory price rose, downstream resistance increased, traders began to sell, and the agricultural procurement enthusiasm cooled. The futures price decline further cooled the spot market sentiment. Although the order intake improved after the factory price was lowered, the high - price downstream in the sales area still resisted, and it will continue to fluctuate in the short term [5] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Short when the price is above 1790 [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn supply is abundant. In the short - term, the US corn 03 contract will fluctuate around 420 cents per bushel. Currently, corn in Northeast China is gradually coming to market, and the supply in North China is also increasing. There will still be a peak of grain sales at the end of January. The rebound of corn spot is limited, and corn will be relatively stable before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, corn is relatively stable, the futures price is at par with the spot price, and the rebound space of 03 corn is limited. Starch will also be relatively stable [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the yield per unit and area of US corn in January. This week, US corn fluctuated narrowly, digesting the negative news. It is expected that the 03 contract of US corn will fluctuate around 420 cents per bushel. The import profit of US and Brazilian corn is high. Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, and the supply of corn has increased, but the port inventory is still low, and the port price is strong. It is expected that the spot will be relatively stable before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the supply of corn in Northeast China has increased, but the downstream has replenished inventory due to rigid demand, and the port inventory is still low, so the price of Northeast corn has risen slightly. The supply of corn in North China has increased, and the spot price is relatively stable. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China is still at a high level, and it is expected that the supply of corn will continue to increase next week. It is expected that the supply in the northern port will increase in the short - term, and the purchase price will be relatively stable. The 03 corn will fluctuate at a high level [4]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has increased, and the starch inventory has decreased, but it is still high. The spot price of corn has risen, and the downstream is still stocking up recently, so the spot price of starch has also risen. The profit of starch factories in North China is relatively stable. In the later stage, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, the spot price of starch will be relatively stable. It is expected that the 03 corn starch will follow the high - level fluctuation of corn [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - One - sided: Try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents per bushel. Try to short 03 corn above 2300 [5]. - Arbitrage: Carry out a reverse spread of 3 - 5 starch [5]. - Options: Adopt a strategy of accumulating put options for 03 corn at high prices [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International - US Corn - **Yield Increase and Bottom - Level Fluctuation**: In January, the USDA's report increased the yield per unit and area of US corn. The yield per unit was increased from 186 bushels per acre to 186.5 bushels per acre. This week, US corn fluctuated at the bottom, and the 03 contract fluctuated around 420 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import tariff of US corn is 11%, and that of US sorghum is 12%. Calculated at an 11% tariff, the import cost of US corn in February is around 2170 yuan per ton, with good import profit. As of January 22, the price at Guangdong Port is 2450 yuan per ton, and the cost of Brazilian corn arriving in March is 2127 yuan per ton, with an import profit of 323 yuan per ton [9]. - **Non - commercial Net Short Position Increase and Ethanol Production Increase**: As of January 13, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 33,000 lots, and the net short position increased. The ethanol production in the United States increased significantly. The 03 contract of US corn fluctuated at the bottom, around 420 cents per bushel [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic - **Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises**: The corn inventory of feed enterprises has increased but is less than the same period last year. As of January 22, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 31.32 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 days, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From January 15 to January 21, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1381,500 tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has risen, and it is expected to continue to increase next week. As of January 14, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 3.838 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.4% [19][20]. - **Port Inventory**: The corn inventory in the northern ports has increased, and the grain inventory in the southern ports has decreased. As of January 16, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.497 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 million tons. The shipping volume of the four ports that week was 389,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 306,000 tons. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,000 tons; the foreign trade inventory was 219,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons; the imported sorghum was 61,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons; the imported barley was 694,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons; the total grain inventory was 1.452 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,000 tons [23]. - **Grain Sales Progress**: The grain sales progress has accelerated. The overall sales progress of 13 provinces was 56%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The sales progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) was 54%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and the same as the same period last year [27]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of deep - processing has increased. From January 15 to January 21, the national corn processing volume was 635,500 tons, and the starch output was 330,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,400 tons. The operating rate was 60.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. The spot price of corn in North China has stabilized, the spot price of starch has risen, the by - product price has been stable, and the enterprise profit has decreased. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 89 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan, and the profit in Shandong was 14 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan. The downstream提货 volume has decreased, the operating rate has declined, and the starch inventory has decreased. It is expected that the starch inventory will rise next week. As of January 21, the corn starch inventory this week was 1.069 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons, a decrease of 2.8%, a monthly decrease of 3.0%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [31]. - **Substitutes - Wheat**: The arrival price of wheat in North China is basically 2500 yuan per ton, and the price is stable. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. Corn in North China and Northeast China is strong, and the price difference between North China and Northeast corn is low [37]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From January 16 to January 22, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 116 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 52 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was 38 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 77 yuan per head. From January 15 to January 21, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 0.36 yuan per chicken, compared with 0.93 yuan per chicken last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost this week was 3.54 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was 0.13 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.18 yuan per catty last week [46][53]. - **Deep - processing - Corn Starch Downstream Consumption**: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 71.58%, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 66.15%, a week - on - week increase of 3.68%. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 65.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.85%, and the operating rate of boxboard paper was 67.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% [56].