废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/15 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 2025/12/085 2187 2035 2218 2216 2262 原点 2025/12/09 2183 2255 2032 2211 2216 2208 2025/12/10 2182 2253 2031 2215 短流程日耗 ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 思原H lle 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 张家港废钢到货 】 据点资讯 ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 tial 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 长流程日耗 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格（不含税） ● 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 3,600元/吨 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 环比 -5 -3 沙钢重三价格 (含税) ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 4,200元/吨 3,90 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in the near - term, TA device runs stably, polyester load drops slightly, inventory decreases, and basis strengthens slightly. In the future, as the terminal weakens, polyester load may reach a turning point, and TA inventory will accumulate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider long - position opportunities at low prices in the long - run due to good PX prospects [2]. - For MEG, domestic oil - based units reduce load, and overseas units also cut production. The port inventory accumulates. In the future, after the valuation is compressed, production cuts increase, and the inventory accumulation narrows. However, considering new production capacity, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate decreases due to maintenance. Sales are stable, and inventory is stable. In the future, demand remains the same, but new production capacity is accelerating, and the downstream is entering the off - season. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, crude oil price dropped by 0.4 USD, PTA spot price decreased by 30 CNY, and polyester gross profit increased by 35 CNY. The PTA balance load decreased by 0.3%, and the basis increased by 3 CNY. The daily average basis of PTA spot trading for 2601 is - 22 [2]. - **Situation Analysis**: Near - term TA device runs stably, polyester load drops slightly, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fee weakens. In the future, as the terminal weakens, polyester load may reach a turning point, and TA inventory will accumulate, but the overall pressure is not large and the valuation is not high [2]. MEG - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, MEG outer - market price dropped by 2 USD, and MEG inner - market price decreased by 28 CNY. The coal - based MEG profit increased by 14.24 CNY, and the inner - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased by 26 CNY [2]. - **Situation Analysis**: Near - term domestic oil - based units reduce load, overseas units also cut production, the port inventory accumulates, and the basis weakens. In the future, after the valuation is compressed, production cuts increase, and the inventory accumulation narrows [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 50 CNY, and the profit of pure - polyester yarn increased by 50 CNY [2]. - **Situation Analysis**: Near - term the start - up rate decreases due to maintenance, sales are stable, and inventory is stable. In the future, demand remains the same, but new production capacity is accelerating, and the downstream is entering the off - season [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 5 USD, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by 40 CNY. The basis between mixed rubber and RU main contract decreased by 25 CNY [2]. - **Situation Analysis**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable. The main contradiction lies in stable inventory and rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 10 USD, and the price of EPS (East China ordinary material) remained unchanged. The domestic profit of styrene decreased by 87 CNY [2][5]. - **Situation Analysis**: No overall situation analysis provided in the report. Only data changes are presented.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The U.S. soybean crush volume in November 2025 is expected to decline by 3.2% from October's record high but increase by 14.0% from November 2024 [1]. - The estimated soybean oil inventory of NOPA members as of November 30, 2025, is expected to reach a seven - month high, up 7.9% from the end of October and 29.9% from the previous year [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, the U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, with 0 tons for 2026 - 27 [1]. - The 2025/26 global soybean export volume is expected to increase mainly driven by Brazil, while the exports of the U.S. and Argentina may decline [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 46.98% compared to the same period last month [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Overnight Market Information - U.S. November 2025 soybean crush volume is estimated to be 220.285 million bushels, with an estimated range of 213 million to 224.332 million bushels and a median of 220.85 million bushels [1]. - As of November 30, 2025, NOPA's soybean oil inventory is expected to be 1.408 billion pounds, with an estimated range of 1.32 billion to 1.508 billion pounds and a median of 1.4 billion pounds [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean meal export sales by 10 - 45 million tons, and 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean oil export sales by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1]. - In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 110 million tons, up 6.7% from 2024/25, and production is expected to reach 178.3 million tons, up 4.1% from the previous year [1]. - In 2025/26, the U.S. soybean exports are expected to be 43 million tons, down 14% from 2024/25, and Argentina's soybean exports are likely to decline due to reduced production and increased crush volume [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the same period last month [1]. Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/15 s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | MIS L S BOLARIN FAES | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 11/12 | 12/8 | 12/10 | 12/11 | 12/12 | 日度变化 | 博 | | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | -23 | 51 | -40 | -60 | -42 | 18 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 87 | 81 | 100 | 20 | 18 | -2 | | | 基差&月差 | 华南基差(佛山库) | 67 | 1 | 20 | 0 | -32 | -32 | | | | 01-03 | -47 | -40 | -36 | -28 | -39 | -11 | | | | 02-03 | -28 | -22 | -18 | -13 | -18 | -5 | | | | 03-06 | -26 | -47 | -42 | -39 | -40 | - 1 | | | | BU主力合约(02) ...

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 967 984 967 990 940 935 1016 1092 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 12合约 01合约 05合约 09合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(12/12） 昨日(12/11） 一周前(12/5） 一月前(11/12） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 ...

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1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The December contract follows the delivery logic, with a small deviation and low positions [3] - The February contract has a moderately high valuation, and is expected to move sideways in the short - term. Looking ahead, the driving force is upward due to strong and recovering cargo volume. Historically, freight rate peaks often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - to late January 2026), but the high capacity in January 2026 may suppress the peak. At the current valuation, it is recommended to wait and see [3] - The April contract has limited short - term downside. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when the April contract may rise following the near - month contracts [3] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1650.0, with a decline of 0.19%, a basis of - 140.9, trading volume of 245, and an open interest of 2947 with a decrease of 84 [2] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1677.8, with a decline of 0.66%, a basis of - 168.7, trading volume of 27001, and an open interest of 31664 with an increase of 41 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1106.0, with an increase of 1.22%, a basis of 403.1, trading volume of 10155, and an open interest of 19930 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1260.8, with an increase of 2.71%, a basis of 248.3, trading volume of 790, and an open interest of 2355 with an increase of 59 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1431.7, with an increase of 3.61%, a basis of 77.4, trading volume of 763 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1030.0, with an increase of 0.82%, a basis of 479.1, trading volume of 813, and an open interest of 4582 with an increase of 291 [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2512 - 2504: The previous day's value was 544.0, with a daily decrease of 16.4 and a weekly decrease of 15.0 [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's value was - 27.8, with a daily increase of 8.1 and a weekly decrease of 91.9 [2] - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 571.8, with a daily decrease of 24.5 and a weekly increase of 76.9 [2] Spot Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: Updated every Monday, as of December 8, 2025, it was 1509.10 points, with a 1.72% increase from the previous period and a - 9.50% decrease from the period before [2] - SCFI: Updated every week, as of December 12, 2025, it was 1538 dollars/TEU, with a 9.86% increase from the previous period and a - 0.28% decrease from the period before [2] - CCFI (European Line): Updated every week, as of December 12, 2025, it was 1470.55 points, with a 1.59% increase from the previous period and a - 0.12% decrease from the period before [2] - NCFI: Updated every week, as of December 12, 2025, it was 1064.13 points, with a 9.98% increase from the previous period and a - 5.57% decrease from the period before [2] European Line Spot Situation - Week 50: The central price was 2200 US dollars, equivalent to 1540 points on the futures market [3] - Week 51: MSK opened at 2400 US dollars (a 200 - dollar increase from the previous week); MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700 US dollars, and PA quoted 2400 US dollars. The current central price is 1760 US dollars, equivalent to about 1760 points on the futures market [3] - Week 52: MSK opened at 2300 US dollars (a 100 - dollar decrease from the previous week), and other companies mainly followed the Week 51 prices [8] Related News - On December 13, 2025, MSC issued a price - increase letter for January, raising the freight rates for 20 - foot and 40 - foot containers on European lines to 2220 and 3700 US dollars respectively [4] - On December 12, 2025, the EU Council agreed to impose a fixed tariff of 3 euros on small packages worth less than 150 euros entering the EU through e - commerce from July 1, 2026 [4] - On December 12, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a meeting with the security cabinet, worrying about a potential military operation in Lebanon [4] - US officials said that the Gaza International Stabilization Force may be deployed as early as next month, but how to disarm Hamas remains unclear [4] Future Price Increase Plans - In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 US dollars respectively [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 15, 2025 [2] - Report type: Agricultural products morning report [19] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - Price changes from December 8 - 12, 2025: Changchun remained at 2160, while the import profit decreased by 6 to 238, and the starch processing profit remained at -23 [3] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn spot prices showed a differentiated trend with port prices falling and产区 prices rising. Starch prices are expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption and supply constraints [4] - Medium - long term: Corn prices may weaken if downstream demand drops seasonally and middlemen release stocks. Starch price trends depend on downstream consumption rhythm [4] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - Price changes from December 8 - 12, 2025: Liuzhou decreased by 20 to 5460, and the Thai import profit decreased by 90 to 139 [6] Market Analysis - Short - term: Domestic new sugar supply increased, and the weak spot market drove the futures down. Futures pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price [6] - Medium - long term: If the global sugar market surplus worsens, the futures price will seek the out - of - quota import cost [6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - Price changes from December 8 - 12, 2025: The 3128 cotton price remained at 14630, and the cotton yarn import profit increased by 12 to 503 [9] Market Analysis - Long - term: Low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With expanding textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies, cotton demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [9] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - Price changes from December 8 - 12, 2025: The Hubei egg price decreased by 0.05 to 3.11, and the basis increased by 50 to 510 [13] Market Analysis - The decline rate of egg inventory depends on the culling rhythm. If farmers cull chickens before Laba due to low prices, it will benefit second - quarter egg prices [13] Group 6: Apples Price Data - Price changes from December 8 - 12, 2025: The national inventory decreased by 82, and Shandong inventory decreased by 14 [18] Market Analysis - The national apple cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, 10% less than last year. The spot market lacks high - quality goods, and the futures market is expected to show a near - strong, far - weak pattern [18] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - Price changes from December 8 - 12, 2025: The Henan Kaifeng price remained at 11.38, and the basis decreased by 105 to 55 [18] Market Analysis - Short - term: Spot prices are strong over the weekend. Pay attention to the sustainability of the rebound before the Winter Solstice [18] - Medium - long term: There is a supply - demand mismatch, and the far - month outlook depends on near - term production and inventory reduction [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Middle East LPG supply is tight, and prices are unlikely to drop significantly in winter; the domestic LPG market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent PDH operation under high costs and the situation of factory - warehouse warrants [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Basis - On Friday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4419 (+4), in Shandong was 4430 (+30), and in South China was 4420 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4560 (-10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 26 [4] - The PG futures price dropped due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warrants. The basis was 265 (+122), the 01 - 02 month - spread was 84 (+5), and the 03 - 04 month - spread was -223 (-12). The number of warrants was 5476 lots (+865) [4] External Market and Arbitrage - The external paper market first rose and then fell. The FEI and CP month - spreads strengthened, while the MB month - spread weakened; the oil - gas ratio declined. The domestic - foreign relationship weakened, with PG - CP at 71 (-28) and PG - FEI at 65 (-14). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [4] Premium and Freight - The East China propane arrival premium was 85 (-7). The AFBI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively. Freight rates increased slightly [4] Profit and Operation - The PDH spot and futures profits weakened; the alkylation unit performance deteriorated; the MTBE profit fluctuated. The chemical demand profit was poor, but the operation was stable, with the PDH operation rate at 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4] Inventory and Supply - The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, and the port inventory increased by 3.22%; the external supply increased slightly by 1.3%, and the refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27% [4]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/15 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 93630 11919 7.73 三月 94170 11898 7.89 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.01 -1469.82 现货出口 1046.05 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23690 3283 7.22 三月 23635 3192 5.36 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.42 -3937.82 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22050 2863 7.70 三月 22170 2896 7.67 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.30 -1719.93 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 118200 14444 8.18 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.11 -1091.76 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 | 国内价格 | | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...