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甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and November is likely to see high imports. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **PP**: The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderately excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the contradiction of static inventory is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 12th, the price of thermal coal futures remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional converted prices had certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2088 on November 6th to 2082 on November 12th. The import profit and other indicators also changed slightly [1]. - **View**: The current situation is poor, with high imports expected in November. Inventory reduction is difficult, and the upside of methanol is limited. The downside depends on the inland region, and coal price strengthening does not affect profits [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 12th, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. had certain changes. For example, the East China LL price increased from 6975 on November 6th to 7000 on November 12th. The two - oil inventory decreased from 69 on November 6th to 67 on November 7th and then continued to change [6]. - **View**: The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis varies in different regions. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection molding price is stable, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to various factors such as new device commissioning [6]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 12th, the price of Shandong propylene and Northeast Asian propylene had certain fluctuations. The prices of East China PP, North China PP, etc. also changed. For example, the East China PP price increased from 6320 on November 6th to 6365 on November 12th. The two - oil inventory and other indicators also had corresponding changes [6]. - **View**: The upstream and mid - stream are reducing inventory. The basis, non - standard price differentials, and import profit are in a certain state. Exports are good. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and attention should be paid to factors such as new device commissioning and PDH device overhauls [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 12th, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2400. The prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in different regions and other indicators had certain changes. For example, the calcium carbide - based PVC price in Northwest decreased from 4320 on November 6th to 4250 on November 11th [6]. - **View**: The basis is at a certain level. Downstream operating rates are weakening, and mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as new device commissioning, exports, and cost changes [6].
原油成品油早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, with the increase higher than market expectations. Recently, Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in on - board oil storage, and the trading price of Russian oil in the Indian market has hit the largest discount in nearly a year. This week, refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded. Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of the Dangote refinery supported the gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. The global fundamental surplus and sanctions factors support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil maintains a volatile pattern, expected to fluctuate in the range of $55 - 65 in Q4 [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Daily News - Russia is ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul [4]. - Lukoil has applied to the US Treasury to extend the deadline for the ban on transactions after November 21 [4]. - The US Energy Department has awarded a contract to purchase about 1 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve [4]. 3.2. Production Data - In October, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 10.003 million barrels per day; Venezuela's decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 956,000 barrels per day; the UAE's increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 3.361 million barrels per day; Iraq's increased by 34,000 barrels per day to 4.098 million barrels per day; Libya's decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 1.283 million barrels per day; Congo's increased by 1,000 barrels per day to 264,000 barrels per day; Kuwait's increased by 37,000 barrels per day to 2.552 million barrels per day; OPEC's increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day; Nigeria's increased by 15,000 barrels per day to 1.506 million barrels per day; Algeria's increased by 4,000 barrels per day to 956,000 barrels per day; Iran's decreased by 66,000 barrels per day to 3.209 million barrels per day; Guinea's decreased by 4,000 barrels per day to 48,000 barrels per day [5]. 3.3. Inventory Data - For the week ending October 31, US crude oil exports increased by 6,000 barrels per day to 4.367 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels to 13.651 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.25% increase; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 409.6 million barrels, a 0.12% increase; crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.924 million barrels per day, an increase of 873,000 barrels per day from the previous week; the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was 300,000 barrels (previous value: 1.334 million barrels); the EIA gasoline inventory was - 4.729 million barrels (expected: - 1.14 million barrels, previous value: - 5.941 million barrels); the EIA refined oil inventory was - 643,000 barrels (expected: - 1.969 million barrels, previous value: - 3.362 million barrels) [6]. - As of the week ending November 12, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week [7]. - As of the week ending November 8, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters to 10,379,001 kiloliters [7]. - For the week ending November 7, the API crude oil inventory in the US was 1.3 million barrels (previous value: 6.521 million barrels) [7]. - From October 31 to November 6, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline was 10.5757 million tons, a 0.4% decrease, and diesel was 12.8962 million tons, a 1.82% decrease. The inventories of both gasoline and diesel from major refineries and local refineries decreased, while those from social sources increased. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries rebounded, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated at a low level [7]. 3.4. Price Data - From November 6 - 12, WTI decreased by $2.55, Brent decreased by $2.45, and Dubai decreased by $1.69. The SC price increased by 7.40, and the Oman price remained unchanged. The price of domestic gasoline increased by 40, and that of domestic diesel increased by 27 [3].
永安期货纸浆早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:27
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a pulp morning report from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated November 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on November 12, 2025, was 5482.00 [1] - The closing prices on previous days were 5484.00 (November 11), 5468.00 (November 10), 5394.00 (November 7), and 5368.00 (November 6) [1] - The corresponding dollar - converted prices were 672.85 (November 12 and 11), 671.16 (November 10), 661.50 (November 7), and 658.32 (November 6) [1] - The daily price changes were - 0.03647% (November 12), 0.29261% (November 11), 1.37189% (November 10), 0.48435% (November 7), and 0.14925% (November 6) [1] - The Shandong Yinxing basis was 58 (November 12), 56 (November 11), 57 (November 10), 106 (November 7), and 132 (November 6) [1] - The Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis was 83 (November 12), 81 (November 11), 57 (November 10), 131 (November 7), and 157 (November 6) [1] Group 3: Import Information - For Canadian pulp, the CFR price of Golden Lion was 780 dollars, with a Shandong - area RMB price of 6200 and an import profit of - 145.57; the CFR price of Lion was 730 dollars, with a Shandong - area RMB price of 5500 and an import profit of - 443.29 [2] - For Chilean pulp, the CFR price of Silver Star (90 - day letter of credit) was 680 dollars, with a Shandong - area RMB price of 5540 and an import profit of - 1.01 [2] Group 4: Pulp Price Averages - From November 6 to November 12, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [2] - The Shandong - area average prices of these pulps also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [2] Group 5: Paper Index and Profit Margin - The cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and living paper (living index) remained unchanged from November 7 to November 12, 2025 [2] - The profit margins of double - offset, double - copper, white - card, and living paper changed from November 7 to November 12, and remained unchanged on November 11 and 12 [2] Group 6: Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between softwood and hardwood, softwood and natural, softwood and chemimechanical, and softwood and waste paper changed from November 6 to November 12, 2025 [2]
永安期货贵金属早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:27
Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, and LME Copper are 4136.75, 51.54, 1592.00, 1446.00, and 10849.00 respectively, with changes of 13.45, 0.30, 16.00, 32.00, and 40.00 [1]. - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, and US Dollar to Japanese Yen are 99.48, 1.16, 1.31, and 154.82 respectively, with changes of -0.00, 0.00, -0.00, and 0.67 [1]. Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory is 14873.43, with a change of -11.39; the latest SHFE silver inventory is 583.06, with a change of -8.82; the latest gold ETF holdings are 1046.64, with a change of 0.28; the latest silver ETF holdings are 15088.63, with no change; the latest SGE silver inventory data is not provided; the latest SGE gold deferred fee payment direction is 2, with a change of 1.00; the latest SGE silver deferred fee payment direction is 2, with no change [1].
永安期货焦炭日报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:25
Group 1: Report Information - The report is a Coke Daily Report by the Black Team of the Research Center, dated November 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price and Production Data - **Coke Prices**: The latest prices of different types of coke are as follows: Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching is 1591.62, Hebei quasi - first dry quenching is 1845.00, Shandong quasi - first dry quenching is 1770.00, Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching is 1810.00, and Inner Mongolia second - grade is 1280.00. Compared with the previous week, prices have increased by 50 - 55, and compared with the previous month, by 100 - 110. The year - on - year changes range from - 17.42% to 1.93% [2] - **Production and Utilization**: The blast furnace开工率 is 87.81, with a weekly decrease of 0.80 and a monthly decrease of 2.74, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.67%. The daily average iron water output is 234.22, down 2.14 from the previous week and 7.32 from the previous month, but up 0.07% year - on - year. The coking production capacity utilization rate is 72.74, with a weekly decrease of 0.42 and a monthly decrease of 2.26, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.49%. The daily average coke output is 53.14, up 0.83 from the previous month and 5.19% year - on - year [2] Group 3: Inventory Data - **Inventory Quantities**: Coking plant inventory is 36.50, down 1.02 from the previous week and 6.04 from the previous month, and 17.16% lower year - on - year. Port inventory is 202.11, down 8.99 from the previous week but up 7.02 from the previous month, and 16.73% higher year - on - year. Steel mill inventory is 626.64, down 2.41 from the previous week and 24.18 from the previous month, but up 7.76% year - on - year [2] - **Inventory Days**: The steel mill inventory days are 11.07, down 0.50 from the previous week and 0.35 from the previous month, and 0.81% lower year - on - year [2] Group 4: Futures Data - **Futures Prices**: The prices of coke futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 1691, 1834.5, and 1919.5 respectively. Compared with the previous day, they have decreased by 31.00, 22.00, and 20.00 respectively. Compared with the previous week, they have decreased by 76.50, 71.00, and 68.50 respectively. Compared with the previous month, they have increased by 54.50, 53.50, and 53.00 respectively. The year - on - year changes range from - 12.27% to - 6.39% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The 01, 05, and 09 basis are 213.97, 70.47, and - 14.53 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread is - 143.50, the 9 - 1 spread is - 85.00, and the 1 - 5 spread is 228.50 [2]
永安期货焦煤日报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:24
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Price Information - **Coking Coal Prices** - Liulin Main Coking Coal: The latest price is 1,645.00, with a monthly increase of 95.00 and an annual increase of 3.46% [2] - Raw Coal Port Warehouse Pick - up Price: The latest price is 1,100.00, with a daily decrease of 11.00, a weekly decrease of 65.00, and an annual decrease of 3.51% [2] - Shaheyi Mongolian No. 5: The latest price is 1,550.00, with a monthly increase of 130.00 and an annual decrease of 5.49% [2] - Anze Main Coking Coal: The latest price is 1,700.00, with a daily and weekly increase of 40.00, a monthly increase of 170.00, and an annual increase of 4.29% [2] - Peak Downs: The latest price is 211.50, with a daily decrease of 0.50, a monthly increase of 5.50, and an annual decrease of 7.00 [2] - Goonyella: The latest price is 210.50, with a daily and weekly decrease of 1.00, a monthly increase of 5.00, and an annual decrease of 8.00 [2] - **Futures Prices** - Futures Contract 05: The latest price is 1,276.00, with a daily decrease of 13.00, a weekly decrease of 66.00, and an annual decrease of 4.74% [2] - Futures Contract 09: The latest price is 1,347.00, with a daily decrease of 5.50, a weekly decrease of 57.50, and an annual decrease of 2.81% [2] - Futures Contract 01: The latest price is 1,217.50, with a daily decrease of 24.50, a weekly decrease of 65.00, and an annual decrease of 5.11% [2] Group 3: Inventory Information - **Total Inventory**: The latest total inventory is 3,370.26, with a weekly increase of 47.67, a monthly increase of 75.88, and an annual decrease of 13.00% [2] - **Coal Mine Inventory**: The latest coal mine inventory is 165.59, with a weekly increase of 1.06, a monthly decrease of 30.27, and an annual decrease of 43.01% [2] - **Port Inventory**: The latest port inventory is 290.15, with a weekly increase of 14.50, a monthly decrease of 4.84, and an annual decrease of 31.77% [2] - **Steel Mill Coking Coal Inventory**: The latest steel mill coking coal inventory is 796.32, with a weekly increase of 13.36, a monthly increase of 8.26, and an annual increase of 7.26% [2] - **Coking Plant Coking Coal Inventory**: The latest coking plant coking coal inventory is 1,052.48, with a weekly increase of 22.78, a monthly increase of 14.77, and an annual increase of 15.19% [2] - **Coking Plant Coke Inventory**: The latest coking plant coke inventory is 84.99, with a monthly decrease of 0.54 and an annual decrease of 1.87% [2] Group 4: Other Information - **Coking Capacity Utilization Rate**: The latest coking capacity utilization rate is 72.31, with a weekly decrease of 1.13, a monthly decrease of 2.87, and an annual decrease of 1.61% [2] - **Basis and Spread Information** - 05 Basis: The latest 05 basis is 88.14, with a daily increase of 13.00, a weekly increase of 66.00, and an annual increase of 79.59 [2] - 09 Basis: The latest 09 basis is 17.14, with a daily increase of 5.50, a weekly increase of 57.50 [2] - 01 Basis: The latest 01 basis is 146.64, with a daily increase of 24.50, a weekly increase of 65.00, and an annual increase of 1.25 [2] - 5 - 9 Spread: The latest 5 - 9 spread is - 71.00, with a daily decrease of 7.50, a weekly decrease of 8.50 [2] - 9 - 1 Spread: The latest 9 - 1 spread is 129.50, with a daily increase of 19.00, a weekly increase of 7.50 [2] - 1 - 5 Spread: The latest 1 - 5 spread is - 58.50, with a daily decrease of 11.50, a weekly increase of 1.00 [2]
玻璃纯碱早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:21
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The report presents the price, production and sales, and inventory data of glass and soda ash, reflecting the current market situation of the two industries[2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price**: From November 5th to November 12th, 2025, the prices of most glass products showed a downward trend, such as the 5mm large - plate glass of Shahe Anquan, which decreased from 1138.0 to 1100.0, a weekly decrease of 38.0 and a daily decrease of 13.0. The FG05 contract decreased from 1231.0 to 1169.0, a weekly decrease of 62.0 and a daily decrease of 15.0[2] - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's production and sales rate was 87, Hubei's was 88, East China's was 92, and South China's was 95. Shahe's factory production and sales gradually weakened, and the sales of Hubei's factories also decreased[2] - **Profit**: The profits of some production methods decreased, such as the North China coal - fired profit, which decreased from 200.0 to 143.1, a weekly decrease of 56.9 and a daily decrease of 5.1. The 05FG contract's natural gas profit decreased from - 143.5 to - 206.5, a weekly decrease of 63.1 and a daily decrease of 14.0[2] Soda Ash - **Price**: From November 5th to November 12th, 2025, the prices of some soda ash products increased, such as the Shahe heavy - soda ash, which increased from 1140.0 to 1170.0, a weekly increase of 30.0. The SA05 contract increased from 1282.0 to 1287.0, a weekly increase of 5.0[2] - **Industry Situation**: The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry slightly decreased[2] - **Profit**: The profits of some production methods showed different trends. The North China ammonia - alkali profit decreased from - 306.2 to - 298.4, a weekly increase of 7.7 and a daily decrease of 1.9. The North China combined - alkali profit decreased from - 325.1 to - 331.5, a weekly decrease of 6.4 and a daily decrease of 1.6[2]
集运早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:13
Report Overview - The report focuses on the freight futures market, mainly analyzing the prices, trends, and influencing factors of European line freight futures contracts, as well as recent news and market conditions [2]. 1. Futures Contract Price and Change 1.1 Futures Contract Prices and Fluctuations - EC2512: The price was 1749.4, with a change of 0.119%, and the trading volume was 22970, and the open interest decreased by 4048 to 21157 [2]. - EC2602: The price was 1636.6, a decrease of 3.19%, the trading volume was 27879, and the open interest increased by 3551 to 32901 [2]. - EC2604: The price was 1172.0, a decrease of 1.33%, the trading volume was 5188, and the open interest increased by 73 to 15483 [2]. - EC2606: The price was 1364.7, a decrease of 4.16%, the trading volume was 532, and the open interest increased by 144 to 1567 [2]. - EC2608: The price was 1472.1, a decrease of 4.712%, the trading volume was 336, and the open interest decreased by 5 to 1208 [2]. - EC2610: The price was 1129.9, a decrease of 0.67%, the trading volume was 609, and the open interest increased by 225 to 1833 [2]. 1.2 Month - to - Month Spread - EC2512 - 2504: The spread was 577.4, with a daily increase of 19.1 and a weekly decrease of 142.5 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 112.8, with a daily increase of 57.2 and a weekly decrease of 203.4 [2]. - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 464.6, with a daily decrease of 38.1 and a weekly increase of 60.9 [2]. 2. Index Data 2.1 Index Values and Changes - Data Index: Updated weekly on Mondays. As of 2025/11/10, it was 1504.80 points, an increase of 24.50% from the previous period and a decrease of 7.92% expected in the next period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 1.56% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI: Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 1366.85 points, an increase of 3.25% from the previous period and an expected increase of 2.37% in the next period [2]. - NCFI: Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 911.73 points, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous period and an expected increase of 17.43% in the next period [2]. 3. Market Analysis and Outlook 3.1 Market Movement on Wednesday - In the morning, the market oscillated, and in the afternoon, it dropped across the board due to the news that the Houthi rebels officially announced to stop attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Contracts - EC2512: Its valuation is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rate in late November will determine the implementation degree of the price - holding in December. It is expected to mainly follow the changes in spot prices and the rhythm of shipping companies' price announcements in the future [2]. - EC2602: Its valuation is more difficult to anchor. In the short term, it is expected to mainly follow the trend of EC2512. If the peak - season cargo - booking situation is gradually realized in the future, it may have more room for growth. The peak freight rate usually occurs 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year) [3]. - EC2604: It is a off - season contract. In the short term, it will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the peak - season logic. Considering the expected greater supply pressure next year and the off - season in April, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3]. 4. Recent European Line Quotation Situation 4.1 Cargo - Booking Situation - In week 45, the cargo - booking situation was good; in week 46, the PA cargo - receiving improved slightly, but the shipping capacity in this week was extremely low. The pressure increased in the second half of November. Among them, PA improved, while MSK faced increased cargo - receiving pressure, and the pressure on OA decreased due to sailings suspension compared with the first half of the month [4]. 4.2 Price Levels - In week 46, the average landed price was 2000 dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures). Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November, but MSK opened the booking at 2250 dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period). It is expected that the quotes of other shipping companies will be gradually lowered this week, and they may also announce a price increase for December [4]. - In week 47, the offline PA price was around 2000 dollars, OA was 2200 - 2400 dollars, and MSK was 2000 dollars. OOCL lowered the online price for November by 300 dollars to 2600 dollars [4]. - On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking for week 48 at 1900 - 2000 dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 dollars on the futures [4]. 5. Related News - On 11/12, the Houthi rebels issued a statement saying that they would end their targeted actions against maritime interests related to Israel and stop armed attacks on merchant ships passing through the Red Sea. However, they warned that if the enemy continued to invade Gaza, they would resume military operations and the navigation ban on Israeli ships [5]. - On 11/12, Hamas stated that it had completed the first phase of the cease - fire agreement. A senior Hamas member said that the previous cease - fire agreement was only a "preliminary agreement" and not a final comprehensive one. The first - phase implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement had been in place for a month, but the second - phase negotiation had not started yet. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel was determined to enforce the cease - fire agreement with a "heavy hand" in Gaza and Lebanon [5].
油脂油料早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:10
Group 1: Overnight Market Information - Analysts expect US soybean export sales to net increase by 45 - 160 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season as of the week ending November 6, 2025 [1] - US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 5 - 40 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0 - 2.5 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from November 1 - 10, 2025, decreased by 49.53% compared to the same period last month, with exports of 190,533 tons [1] Group 2: Spot Prices - Spot prices for various products including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu are provided from November 6 - 12, 2025 [2]
燃料油早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore fluctuated, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, the basis weakened, the HSFO cracking in Europe declined, and the EW strengthened this week. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore rebounded, the monthly spread fluctuated, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil decreased slightly, ARA's residual oil increased, Fujairah's residual oil increased, and EIA's residual oil inventory remained flat. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market rebounded. Singapore's high - sulfur was supported by EW and refinery purchases, but the spot basis weakened rapidly. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short term, and the short - term downward space for low - sulfur is limited [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data (Swap M1) - From November 6th to 12th, the price of 3.5% HSF decreased by 16.44, the price of 0.5% VLS decreased by 17.53, the HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.18, the 10ppm Gasoil decreased by 3.88, the VLSFO - Gasoil decreased by 21.41, the LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged, and the VLSFO - HSFO decreased by 1.09 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data (Swap M1) - From November 6th to 12th, the price of 380cst increased by 3.78, the price of 180cst increased by 5.56, the price of VLSFO increased by 3.60, the price of Gasoil increased by 2.64, the 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by 0.58, and the VLSFO - Gasoil decreased by 15.93 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From November 6th to 12th, the FOB price of 380cst increased by 2.48, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 2.73, the 380 basis decreased by 0.01, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference increased by 1.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 4.2 [2] Domestic FU Data - From November 6th to 12th, the price of FU 01 increased by 22, the price of FU 05 increased by 18, the price of FU 09 increased by 12, the FU 01 - 05 increased by 4, the FU 05 - 09 increased by 6, and the FU 09 - 01 decreased by 10 [2] Domestic LU Data - From November 6th to 12th, the price of LU 01 increased by 49, the price of LU 05 increased by 42, the price of LU 09 increased by 40, the LU 01 - 05 increased by 7, the LU 05 - 09 increased by 2, and the LU 09 - 01 decreased by 9 [3]