乘 亦安期货 动力煤早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025-12-15 日变化 周变化 月变化 最新 日变化 月变化 最新 年变化 周变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 秦皇岛5000 -6.0 -7.0 25省终端可用天数 25省终端供煤 764.0 9.0 228 0. -75.0 4.5 22.0 662.0 -41.0 -53.0 564.4 -44.1 -75.6 -58.4 850.0 104.0 一州港5500 0.0 -5.0 -15.0 40.0 北方港库存 2756.0 467.0 262.0 -75.0 -80.0 -75.0 65.0 -620 -21.1 鄂尔多斯5500 520.0 -5.0 -30.0 北方锚地船舶 -9.0 -8.0 19.0 -25.0 -9.7 575.0 -5.0 北方港调入量 大同5500 16.0 7.4 榆林6000 北方港吞叶量 712.0 0.0 -20.0 0.0 -75.0 139.8 -22.2 14.8 -33.3 -20.1 -60.0 -62.3 CBCFI海运指数 秦皇岛-上海（4-5DWT） 榆林6200 5省终端日耗 755.0 -5.0 ...

新 加 坡 燃 料 油 现 货 | 日期 | FOB 380cst | FOB VLSFO | 380基差 | 高硫内外价差 | 低硫内外价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 340.82 | 421.73 | -5.60 | 0.4 | 5.1 | | 2025/12/08 | 343.53 | 425.03 | -6.40 | 2.1 | 4.5 | | 2025/12/09 | 333.81 | 415.01 | -5.22 | 1.7 | 4.2 | | 2025/12/10 | 330.84 | 416.96 | -5.85 | -0.2 | 3.8 | | 2025/12/11 | - | - | - | 0.8 | 3.7 | | 变化 | - | - | - | 1.0 | -0.1 | | | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The G7 and the EU considered banning Russian export shipping services instead of the oil price cap, Ukraine attacked a refinery and a small port of Rosneft, and CPC exports were blocked, leading to a decline in Kazakhstan's daily oil production and a rebound in absolute prices. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are accumulating, Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in January, U.S. EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories are accumulating, and the refinery operating rate in the U.S. has recovered above 94%. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the U.S. have declined, and the short - term diesel fundamentals are stronger. The price range of Brent in the fourth quarter is $55 - 65 per barrel, maintaining a short - selling idea. With a small short - term valuation deviation, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - Trump plans to sanction Maduro's nephews and several companies transporting Venezuelan oil. The Trump administration imposed new sanctions on three nephews of Venezuelan President Maduro, a businessman closely related to the Maduro regime, and six companies transporting Venezuelan oil. The day before the sanctions, the U.S. seized a ship carrying Venezuelan crude oil [3] - The U.S. is preparing to seize more oil tankers off the Venezuelan coast. After seizing an oil tanker this week, the U.S. is preparing to intercept more ships transporting Venezuelan oil to increase pressure on Maduro. The U.S. has drawn up a list of target tankers that may be seized [3] - Russia's crude oil production increased slightly in November but remained below the quota. Russia's daily crude oil production rose slightly to 9.367 million barrels in November, an increase of 100,000 barrels per day from October, but still below the OPEC + quota of 9.532 million barrels per day. OPEC + has increased the crude oil production target by more than 2.7 million barrels per day this year, and decided to maintain the current production level in the first quarter of 2026. Kazakhstan's crude oil production exceeded the quota in November [4] 3.2 Inventory - U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending December 5th was - 1.812 million barrels, with an expected - 2.31 million barrels and a previous value of 0.574 million barrels; strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 0.248 million barrels, with a previous value of 0.25 million barrels; gasoline inventory was 6.397 million barrels, with an expected 2.764 million barrels and a previous value of 4.518 million barrels; refined oil inventory was 2.502 million barrels, with an expected 1.943 million barrels and a previous value of 2.059 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma was 0.308 million barrels, with a previous value of - 0.457 million barrels; refinery equipment utilization rate was 94.5%, with an expected 94.4% and a previous value of 94.1% [4] 3.3 Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The G7 and the EU considered banning Russian export shipping services instead of the oil price cap, Ukraine attacked a refinery and a small port of Rosneft, and CPC exports were blocked, leading to a decline in Kazakhstan's daily oil production and a rebound in absolute prices. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are accumulating, Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in January, U.S. EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories are accumulating, and the refinery operating rate in the U.S. has recovered above 94%. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the U.S. have declined, and the short - term diesel fundamentals are stronger. The price range of Brent in the fourth quarter is $55 - 65 per barrel, maintaining a short - selling idea. With a small short - term valuation deviation, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the LME cash - 3m spread rose significantly due to a large increase in cancelled warrants in Asia, causing short - term market panic. The copper price exceeded $11,000 again, with a structural supply - demand gap and uneven global inventory distribution. In China, consumption slowed due to high prices, and a slight inventory build - up is expected until the Spring Festival. The overall idea is to buy on dips, with the price expected to range from $10,800 to $12,000 in December [1]. - For aluminum, overseas interest - rate cut expectations are beneficial to the overall trend. Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, while aluminum products continued to reduce inventory. The end - of - year demand was good. Supply and demand are expected to be loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. - For zinc, the price rose this week. The supply of domestic zinc ore is expected to tighten from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, and many smelters will undergo maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while overseas demand in the US has increased. The recommendation is to wait and see for single - sided trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [4][5][6]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand was weak, and both domestic and overseas inventories continued to build up. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel mining sector, short - selling opportunities on price rallies are worth attention [7][8]. - For stainless steel, steel mills maintained high production, demand was mainly for essential needs, and inventory remained at a high level. Considering the price - support motivation from Indonesian policies, short - selling opportunities on price rallies are recommended [11]. - For lead, the price stopped falling and rebounded. The supply of primary lead remained high, and the supply of recycled lead increased. Demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 yuan next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12][13]. - For tin, the price was lifted by the overall non - ferrous market. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the long - term but with limited elasticity. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it can be considered as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous sector in the first half of 2026 [16]. - For industrial silicon, the market oscillated weakly this week. The supply and demand are balanced in December, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [18]. - For lithium carbonate, the futures price dropped significantly this week. The supply and demand are both strong in the short - term. However, due to high inventory in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the upside potential depends on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [20]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Spread**: The LME cash - 3m spread increased significantly, and the copper price exceeded $11,000 again. The domestic spot premium decreased, and the import profit window was still restricted [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 875 tons, and cancelled warrants increased by 1,250 tons. In China, the inventory is expected to build up slightly until the Spring Festival [1]. - **Outlook**: The overall idea is to buy on dips, with the price expected to range from $10,800 to $12,000 in December [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The aluminum price increased slightly, and the spot basis declined. The import profit improved slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat at 113,335 tons, while LME inventory decreased by 2,050 tons [1]. - **Outlook**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are beneficial. Supply and demand are expected to be loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The zinc price rose, and the LME 0 - 3M premium decreased from $224 to $163 [4][5][6]. - **Supply**: Domestic and imported TC decreased rapidly. Many smelters will undergo maintenance in December, and the production is expected to decrease by 15,000 - 18,000 tons [6]. - **Demand**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while overseas demand in the US has increased [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for single - sided trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [6]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The nickel price decreased slightly, and the import profit improved [7]. - **Supply**: The production of pure nickel decreased slightly [7]. - **Demand**: The overall demand was weak, but the Jinchuan premium was strong [7]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and overseas inventories continued to build up [7]. - **Strategy**: With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel mining sector, short - selling opportunities on price rallies are worth attention [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained stable, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 30 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: Steel mills maintained high production [11]. - **Demand**: Demand was mainly for essential needs [11]. - **Inventory**: Inventory remained at a high level [11]. - **Strategy**: Considering the price - support motivation from Indonesian policies, short - selling opportunities on price rallies are recommended [11]. Lead - **Price**: The lead price stopped falling and rebounded to around 17,000 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: The supply of primary lead remained high, and the supply of recycled lead increased by about 4,000 - 5,000 tons this week [13]. - **Demand**: The battery production rate remained flat, and the demand is expected to weaken [13]. - **Inventory**: The five - region social inventory decreased to 23,600 tons [13]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 yuan next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [13]. Tin - **Price**: The tin price was lifted by the overall non - ferrous market [16]. - **Supply**: The processing fee of tin ore remained low, and the overseas production recovery was slow. However, high prices stimulated inventory exports [16]. - **Demand**: The demand was mainly supported by rigidity, and the downstream's acceptable price level increased [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it can be considered as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous sector in the first half of 2026 [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The market oscillated weakly, and the actual transaction price of some grades was around 9,400 - 9,500 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply**: Southwest producers reduced production to support prices, while northern producers maintained stable production [18]. - **Demand**: Terminal procurement enthusiasm was average, and transactions were mainly based on low - price point - pricing [18]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are balanced in December, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price increased slightly [20]. - **Supply**: The upstream inventory continued to decrease, and the delivery to warehouses was slow [20]. - **Demand**: Downstream material factories were mainly purchasing for essential needs, and the spot - trading activity increased as the price declined [20]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are both strong in the short - term. However, due to high inventory in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the upside potential depends on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 12, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 12, 2025, the domestic spot price was 92450, LME spot price was 11650, with a spot ratio of 7.88. The import profit for spot was - 1540.94, and the export profit was 112.29. The three - month domestic price was 92310, LME price was 11625, with a ratio of 7.99 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 23120, LME spot price was 3260, with a spot ratio of 7.09. The import profit for spot was - 4336.08. The three - month domestic price was 23000, LME price was 3088, with a ratio of 5.57 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21880, LME spot price was 2846, with a spot ratio of 7.69. The import profit for spot was - 1750.04. The three - month domestic price was 21970, LME price was 2873, with a ratio of 7.68 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118600, LME spot price was 14458, with a spot ratio of 8.20. The import profit for spot was - 1145.68 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17100, LME spot price was 1941, with a spot ratio of 8.80. The import profit for spot was 254.08. The three - month domestic price was 17160, LME price was 1989, with a ratio of 11.59 [1][3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 430, 530, 510, and 400 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 561, 1020, 1488, and 1956 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 85, - 80, - 45, - 45, and the theoretical spreads were 218, 343, 467, 592 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 50, 110, 155, 195, and the theoretical spreads were 220, 342, 463, 584 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 90, 95, 80, 115, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 280, - 90, 140, 350 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 620, and the theoretical spread was 6602 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 855 and - 425, while the theoretical spreads were 40 and 613 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 40 and - 125, and the theoretical spreads were 65 and 200 [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 35 and 55, and the theoretical spreads were 83 and 196 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 12, 2025, for cross - variety ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios were 4.01, 4.20, 5.38, 0.96, 1.28, 0.75 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios were 3.71, 4.09, 5.97, 0.91, 1.46, 0.62 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the terminal is weakening faster, the inflection point of polyester load may be approaching, TA inventory will gradually accumulate again, but the overall pressure is not large and the valuation is not high. Short - term observation is recommended, and in the long - term, considering the good PX pattern, attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips [2] - For MEG, after the price drops again, coal - based losses intensify, and the supply - side reduction has not reversed the inventory accumulation trend. The short - term valuation is low but the driving force is limited, and the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [7] - For polyester staple fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited, but in the far - month, as the downstream enters the off - season and new device production is approaching, the pattern may weaken. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [7] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and the absolute level is not high, the price of Thai cup rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [7] Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From 2025/12/05 to 2025/12/11, crude oil price decreased from $63.8 to $61.3, PTA internal - market spot price changed from 4670 to 4640, and PTA processing difference fluctuated [1][8] - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA device operation is stable, polyester load increases slightly, inventory remains stable, basis is stable, and spot processing fee improves. PX domestic operation is stable, PXN strengthens, and the benefits of disproportionation and isomerization improve [2] MEG - **Price and Profit Changes**: From 2025/12/05 to 2025/12/11, MEG external - market price decreased from 445 to 431, and MEG coal - based profit decreased from - 532 to - 660 [7] - **Device and Market Situation**: There are both overhauls and restarts in the near - end domestic market, the operation rate decreases slightly, some overseas devices reduce load, port inventory accumulates, basis weakens, and coal - based benefits weaken again [7] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From 2025/12/05 to 2025/12/11, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber fluctuated, and short - fiber profit increased from 119 to 152 [7] - **Market Situation**: Near - end device operation is stable, the operation rate is maintained at 97.5%, production and sales are basically stable, and inventory decreases month - on - month. The demand side remains basically the same as before [7] Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From 2025/12/05 to 2025/12/11, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber fluctuated, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased [7] - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, the price of Thai cup rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [7] Styrene - **Price and Profit Changes**: From 2025/12/05 to 2025/12/11, the price of styrene (CFR China) fluctuated, and styrene domestic profit also fluctuated [7] - **Market Situation**: The prices of related products such as ethylene and pure benzene also changed to some extent during this period [7]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Report Team: Research Center Agricultural Products Team Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit/Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 2120 | 2280 | 2210 | 2470 | -15 | 40 | 275 | 2700 | 2820 | 117 | -107 | | 2025/12/08 | 2170 | 2280 | 2220 | 2460 | 19 | 30 | 272 | 2700 | 2820 | 156 | -104 | | 2025/12/09 | 2170 | 2260 | 2230 | 2450 | 24 | 40 | 262 | 2750 | 2820 | 183 | -55 | | 2025/12/10 | 2170 | 2240 | 2224 | 2440 | -1 | 50 | 252 | 2750 | 2820 | 173 | -33 | | 2025/12/11 | 2160 | 2250 | 2224 | 2430 | 7 | 30 | 244 | 2750 | 2820 | 182 | -23 | | Change | -10 | 10 | 0 | -10 | 8 | -20 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | [2] Market Analysis - **Short - term**: Corn prices are expected to remain strong as the downstream is in the seasonal restocking period and the reserve purchase policy has created a tight market. Starch prices are expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption support and raw material supply constraints [3]. - **Long - term**: Corn prices may weaken if downstream demand falls seasonally and middlemen release their hoarded grain. For starch, the key factor for future pricing is whether the enterprise inventory will continue to decline after the seasonal peak [3]. Group 3: Sugar Price Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand Import Profit | Brazil Import Profit | Zhengzhou Futures Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 5505 | 5410 | 5370 | 202 | 258 | 438 | 183 | | 2025/12/08 | 5505 | 5410 | 5345 | 168 | 252 | 432 | 1671 | | 2025/12/09 | 5505 | 5410 | 5345 | 162 | 301 | 481 | 1886 | | 2025/12/10 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 152 | 204 | 384 | 2101 | | 2025/12/11 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 235 | 229 | 408 | 2101 | | Change | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 25 | 24 | 0 | [4] Market Analysis - **Short - term**: The spot price of sugar is weak, driving the futures price down. The futures price can still refer to the domestic sugar cost and spot price [4]. - **Long - term**: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price may decline to the out - of - quota import cost [4]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data | Date | 3128 Cotton | Imported M - grade US Cotton | CotlookA(FE) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn Spot | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 14580 | 73.5 | 74.2 | 1647 | 5490 | 2.53 | 21020 | 488 | -289 | | 2025/12/08 | 14580 | - | 74.0 | 1688 | 5757 | 2.53 | 21020 | 491 | -289 | | 2025/12/09 | 14570 | - | 73.7 | 1725 | 6070 | 2.53 | 21020 | - | -278 | | 2025/12/10 | 14590 | 73.4 | 74.0 | 1712 | 6285 | 2.53 | 21020 | 508 | -299 | | 2025/12/11 | 14630 | - | - | - | 6552 | 2.53 | 21000 | 491 | -361 | | Change | 40 | - | - | - | 267 | 0 | -20 | -17 | -62 | [5] Market Analysis - New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the China - US meeting in Busan is beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports, making long - term long positions in cotton suitable [5]. Group 5: Eggs Price Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White - feather Broiler | Yellow - feather Broiler | Live Pigs | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 2.96 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 2.93 | 404 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 17.68 | | 2025/12/08 | 2.96 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.02 | 441 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 17.66 | | 2025/12/09 | 2.96 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.09 | 461 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 17.57 | | 2025/12/10 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.16 | 416 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.88 | | 2025/12/11 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.16 | 460 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.62 | | Change | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 44.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.26 | [8] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The speed of inventory decline depends on the culling rhythm. If farmers cull more hens before the Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial to egg prices in the second quarter [8]. Group 6: Apples Price Data | Date | Shandong 80 First and Second - grade | Shaanxi 70 Common | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -655.00 | -739.00 | 366.00 | | 2025/12/08 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -644.00 | -606.00 | 423.00 | | 2025/12/09 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -645.00 | -565.00 | 438.00 | | 2025/12/10 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -718.00 | -610.00 | 420.00 | | 2025/12/11 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | 719.79 | 270.48 | 201.85 | -759.00 | -605.00 | 410.00 | | Change | 0.00 | 0.00 | -41.00 | 5.00 | -10.00 | - | - | - | [13] Market Analysis - The national apple storage is basically completed. The estimated national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, 10% less than last year. The market has a shortage of high - quality apples. The futures price is in a high - level shock in the short - term, but the 05 contract is bearish in the medium - term due to many competing products in the consumption market [13]. Group 7: Live Pigs Price Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 11.48 | 11.20 | 11.27 | 11.60 | 11.55 | 95 | | 2025/12/08 | 11.33 | 11.10 | 11.12 | 11.50 | 11.60 | -55 | | 2025/12/09 | 11.23 | 11.15 | 11.17 | 11.50 | 11.65 | -220 | | 2025/12/10 | 11.28 | 11.25 | 11.17 | 11.55 | 11.60 | -30 | | 2025/12/11 | 11.38 | 11.35 | 11.37 | 11.75 | 11.80 | 160 | | Change | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 190.00 | [13] Market Analysis - The live - pig spot price fluctuates on weekends with a supply - demand game. There may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch before the Spring Festival, but the supply pressure is still large. The improvement of the October production data has not fully boosted market sentiment, and factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies need to be monitored [13].

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 764.0 -6.0 -39.0 -66.0 -41.0 25省终端可用天数 22.7 -0.2 2.8 1.8 5.1 秦皇岛5000 662.0 -7.0 -41.0 -75.0 -53.0 25省终端供煤 560.0 7.5 -48.6 -80.1 -62.9 广州港5500 850.0 0.0 -5.0 -15.0 -40.0 北方港库存 2756.0 22.0 104.0 500.0 232.1 鄂尔多斯5500 525.0 0.0 -30.0 -70.0 -75.0 北方锚地船舶 74.0 5.0 11.0 -68.0 37.0 大同5500 580.0 0.0 -25.0 -65.0 -80.0 北方港调入量 166.8 11.1 -5.8 -8.8 13.0 榆林6000 712.0 0.0 -20.0 0.0 -75.0 北方港吞吐量 162.0 19.8 22.7 -4.9 -14.7 榆林6200 755.0 0.0 -5.0 15.0 -60.0 CBCFI海运指数 638.0 -14.3 -1 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 12, 2025 [3] BR Main Contract Data - **Price**: On November 11, it was 10240; on December 5, 10410; on December 9, 10450; on December 10, 10605; on December 11, 10710, with a daily change of 105 and a weekly change of 300 [4] - **Open Interest**: On November 11, it was 82041; on December 5, 30197; on December 9, 76409; on December 10, 80546; on December 11, 86990, with a daily change of 6444 and a weekly change of 56793 [4] - **Trading Volume**: On November 11, it was 89151; on December 5, 65443; on December 9, 111045; on December 10, 126992; on December 11, 155798, with a daily change of 28806 and a weekly change of 90355 [4] - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: On November 11, it was 12610; on December 5, 13320; on December 9, 17320; on December 10, 19020; on December 11, 19320, with a daily change of 300 and a weekly change of 6000 [4] - **Virtual-to-Physical Ratio**: On November 11, it was 32.53; on December 5, 11.34; on December 9, 22.06; on December 10, 21.17; on December 11, 22.51, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 11 [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Basis**: On November 11, it was 160; on December 5, 40; on December 9, 50; on December 10, -22; on December 11, -60, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of -100 [4] - **Styrene-Butadiene Rubber Basis**: On November 11, it was 560; on December 5, 540; on December 9, 550; on December 10, 445; on December 11, 490, with a daily change of 45 and a weekly change of -50 [4] BR Basis/Spread/Inter-Variety Data - **02 - 03 Spread**: On November 11, it was -52; on December 5, -30; on December 9, -20; on December 10, -15; on December 11, -20, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of 10 [4] - **03 - 04 Spread**: On November 11, it was -50; on December 5, -50; on December 9, -45; on December 10, -12; on December 11, -15, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 35 [4] - **RU - BR Spread**: On November 11, it was 4855; on December 5, 4655; on December 9, 4535; on December 10, 4610; on December 11, 4475, with a daily change of -135 and a weekly change of -180 [4] - **NR - BR Spread**: On November 11, it was 1885; on December 5, 1635; on December 9, 1630; on December 10, 1665; on December 11, 1560, with a daily change of -105 and a weekly change of -75 [4] BR Spot Data - **Shandong Market Price**: On November 11, it was 10400; on December 5, 10450; on December 9, 10500; on December 10, 10550; on December 11, 10650, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 200 [4] - **Chuanhua Market Price**: On November 11, it was 10250; on December 5, 10400; on December 9, 10400; on December 10, 10500; on December 11, 10580, with a daily change of 80 and a weekly change of 180 [4] - **Qilu Ex - factory Price**: On November 11, it was 10200; on December 5, 10600; on December 9, 10600; on December 10, 10600; on December 11, 10600, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [4] - **CFR Northeast Asia**: On November 11, it was 1400; on December 5, 1300; on December 9, 1325; on December 10, 1325; on December 11, 1325, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 25 [4] - **CFR Southeast Asia**: On November 11, it was 1685; on December 5, 1575; on December 9, 1600; on December 10, 1600; on December 11, 1600, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 25 [4] BR Profit Data - **Spot Processing Profit**: On November 11, it was 1086; on December 5, 906; on December 9, 905; on December 10, 802; on December 11, 775, with a daily change of -28 and a weekly change of -132 [4] - **Import Profit**: On November 11, it was -1366; on December 5, -442; on December 9, -579; on December 10, -529; on December 11, -428, with a daily change of 102 and a weekly change of 14 [4] - **Export Profit**: On November 11, it was 2297; on December 5, 1401; on December 9, 1522; on December 10, 1479; on December 11, 1390, with a daily change of -89 and a weekly change of -11 [4] BD Spot Data - **Shandong Market Price**: On November 11, it was 6975; on December 5, 7200; on December 9, 7250; on December 10, 7400; on December 11, 7525, with a daily change of 125 and a weekly change of 325 [4] - **Jiangsu Market Price**: On November 11, it was 6850; on December 5, 7050; on December 9, 7200; on December 10, 7250; on December 11, 7350, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 300 [4] - **Yangzi Ex - factory Price**: On November 11, it was 6900; on December 5, 7100; on December 9, 7200; on December 10, 7200; on December 11, 7200, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - **CFR China**: On November 11, it was 790; on December 5, 850; on December 9, 860; on December 10, 860; on December 11, 860, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 10 [4] BD Profit Data - **Ethylene Cracking Profit**: On November 11, it was -88; on December 5, -64; on December 9, -62; on December 10, -61 [4] - **Carbon - four Extraction Profit**: On November 11, it was -134; on December 5, 172; on December 9, 276; on December 10, 304 [4] - **BD Overall Profit**: On November 11, it was -1824; on December 5, -1764; on December 9, -1614; on December 10, -1634; on December 11, -1534, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 230 [4] - **Import Profit**: On November 11, it was 346; on December 5, 108; on December 9, 186; on December 10, 236; on December 11, 337, with a daily change of 101 and a weekly change of 229 [4] - **Export Profit**: On November 11, it was -982; on December 5, -1192; on December 9, -975; on December 10, -1019; on December 11, -1036, with a daily change of -17 and a weekly change of 156 [4] Other Production Profit Data - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit**: On November 11, it was 1175; on December 5, 1538; on December 9, 1450; on December 10, 1450; on December 11, 1450, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -88 [4] - **ABS Production Profit**: On November 11, it was 56; on December 5, -697 [4] - **SBS Production Profit**: On November 11, it was -90; on December 5, -332; on December 9, -420; on December 10, -420; on December 11, -420, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -82 [4] Data Source - Mysteel, Wind [8]

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/12 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 2194 | 2263 | 2037 | 2231 | 2223 | 2093 | | 2025/12/08 | 2187 | 2262 | 2035 | 2218 | 2216 | 2089 | | 2025/12/09 | 2183 | 2255 | 2032 | 2211 | 2216 | 2089 | | 2025/12/10 | 2182 | 2253 | 2031 | 2208 | 2215 | 2088 | | 2025/12/11 | 2173 | 2251 | 2031 | 2208 | 2215 | 2087 | | 环比 | -9 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分 ...