Yong An Qi Huo
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沥青早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 00:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the daily and weekly changes in various indicators of the asphalt market, including basis, spreads, trading volume, open interest, prices of different grades, and refinery profits, along with the price of Brent crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Basis and Spreads - **Basis**: On November 12, the Shandong basis (+80)(Hongrun) was -2983, the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was -3063, and the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was -3063, all with a daily change of -13 [3]. - **Spreads**: The 12 - 01 spread was 0 with a daily change of -1; the 12 - 03 spread was -47 with a daily change of -8; the 01 - 02 spread was -19 with a daily change of -5 [3]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the BU main contract (01) on November 12 was 237,856, a decrease of 76,306 (-5%) compared to the previous day [3]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest on November 12 was 345,731, an increase of 6,060 (8%) compared to the previous day [3]. Prices - **BU Main Contract (01)**: The price on November 12 was 3063, an increase of 13 compared to the previous day [3]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: The price on November 12 was 65.2, an increase of 1.1 compared to the previous day [3]. - **Asphalt Prices**: On November 10, the prices of Jingbo, Hongrun, Zhenjiang warehouse, and Foshan warehouse were 2990, 2950, 3170, and 3230 respectively [3]. Profits - **Asphalt Ma Rui Profit**: On November 12, it was 34, a decrease of 34 compared to the previous day [3]. - **Ma Rui - type Refinery Comprehensive Profit**: On November 12, it was -796, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous day [3].
铁合金早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 00:43
Report Date - The report is dated November 13, 2025 [1] Price Information Silicon Ferroalloy - Spot prices for different regions and grades vary, e.g., Ningxia 72 is 5150 with a daily change of -30 and weekly change of 0; Inner Mongolia 72 is 5200 with a daily change of -50 and weekly change of -20 [2] - Different contract prices on the futures market also show various changes, e.g., the main contract price is 5490 with a daily change of 2 and weekly change of -70 [2] - Export prices in Tianjin for 72 are 1045 and for 75 are 1100, both with no daily or weekly changes [2] Silicon Manganese Ferroalloy - Spot prices for different regions and grades also have differences, e.g., Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600 with a daily change of -20 and weekly change of -20; Ningxia 6517 is 5560 with no daily or weekly changes [2] - Futures contract prices and their changes are presented, e.g., the main contract price is 5762 with a daily change of -2 and weekly change of -14 [2] Historical Price Trends - Multiple historical price trend charts are provided for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese ferroalloy, including market prices in different regions, export and import prices, and price differences between different contracts and regions from 2021 - 2025 [3][4][6] Supply - Related Information Silicon Ferroalloy - Production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are shown [4] - Export - related data such as export prices in Tianjin and export quantity in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4] Silicon Manganese Ferroalloy - Production data like weekly production in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided [6] - Procurement data of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, including procurement prices and quantities of 6517 from 2021 - 2025 are given [6] Demand - Related Information Silicon Ferroalloy - Demand - related data such as the estimated production of crude steel in China, the production of metal magnesium, and the demand for silicon ferroalloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown [4] Silicon Manganese Ferroalloy - Demand - related data including the demand for silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4][7] Inventory - Related Information Silicon Ferroalloy - Inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including inventory in different regions, and inventory - related data such as warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions from 2021 - 2025 are provided [5] Silicon Manganese Ferroalloy - Inventory - related data such as warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown [7] Cost and Profit - Related Information Silicon Ferroalloy - Cost - related data such as electricity prices in different regions, prices of raw materials like blue charcoal and silica, and production costs and profits in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5] Silicon Manganese Ferroalloy - Profit - related data in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and the northern and southern regions from 2021 - 2025 are provided [7]
动力煤早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 00:42
、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等,我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 823.0 3.0 39.0 103.0 -32.0 25省终端可用天数 25.8 -0.4 5.9 4.9 8.2 秦皇岛5000 731.0 3.0 40.0 101.0 -24.0 25省终端供煤 527.7 1.2 -80.9 -112.4 -95.2 广州港5500 865.0 0.0 50.0 90.0 -45.0 北方港库存 2256.0 0.0 67.0 -10.0 -249.8 鄂尔多斯5500 595.0 0.0 30.0 110.0 -35.0 北方锚地船舶 144.0 2.0 54.0 25.0 86.0 大同5500 645.0 0.0 30.0 110.0 -65.0 北方港调入量 163.3 -12.3 -16.5 42.9 -6.7 榆林6000 712.0 0.0 0.0 70.0 -115.0 北方港吞吐量 182.4 15.5 -7.5 58.1 10.6 榆林6200 740.0 ...
波动率数据日报-20251112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 05:23
Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Its Relationship with Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility compared to historical volatility. A larger difference means the implied volatility is relatively higher, and a smaller difference means it is relatively lower [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Graphs - There are graphs showing the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and their differences (IV - HV) for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as silver, corn, sugar, cotton, etc [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low. Volatility spread is related to the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] - There are rankings of implied volatility quantiles and historical volatility quantiles for different options, such as 300 - stock index, PTA, 50ETF, etc [6]
原油成品油早报-20251112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 04:21
Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, with the increase higher than market expectations. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in on - board oil storage, and Russian oil in the Indian market has traded at the largest discount in nearly a year. This week, refining profits in European and American refineries rebounded, and Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of Dangote Refinery supported the gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. The global fundamental surplus and sanctions factors support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil maintains a volatile pattern, expected to fluctuate in the range of $55 - 65 in Q4 [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - From November 5th to 11th, 2025, WTI increased by $0.91, BRENT by $1.10, and DUBAI by $0.59. Other indicators also showed corresponding changes [3] - From November 5th to 11th, 2025, SC decreased by 3.00, OMAN increased by 0.99. Domestic gasoline increased by 20.00, and domestic diesel increased by 5.00. Other related indicators also had corresponding changes [3] - From November 5th to 11th, 2025, Japanese naphtha - BRT decreased by 13.59, Singapore 380 - BRT decreased by 9.96. Other related indicators also showed corresponding changes [3] 2. Daily News - Germany requires SEFE to terminate the long - term natural gas import agreement with Russia. Canceling the contract may cost about 10 billion euros (11.6 billion US dollars), and the annual import volume is about 2.9 million tons with a contract term until 2040 [4] - The key indicator of the North Sea crude oil market has fallen to a low point in more than a year, reflecting concerns about future supply surplus. The international energy agency has predicted a record supply surplus of crude oil [4] - Russia is willing to discuss the preparation of a summit with the US if the US resumes the proposal. Russia is also willing to communicate regarding Trump's doubts about Russia's nuclear test, and Venezuela has not sought military support from Russia [5] - Russia's seaborne crude oil exports have reached a two - month low, and about 35% of the tankers' final destinations are unknown, with most likely heading to Asia [5] 3. Inventory - In the week ending October 31st, US crude oil exports increased by 0.6 barrels/day to 4.367 million barrels/day, domestic production increased by 0.7 barrels to 13.651 million barrels/day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 409.6 million barrels [6] - From October 31st to November 6th, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline was 10.5757 million tons, down 0.4%, and diesel was 12.8962 million tons, down 1.82% [7] 4. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated. OPEC+ suspended production increases in Q1 next year. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran affected the market. European and American refinery profits rebounded, and the domestic fundamentals are neutral. Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate between $55 - 65 in Q4 [7]
永安期货集运早报-20251112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 03:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the EC2602 contract's price rose due to early rumors of the 02 pricing index, and other contracts were also driven up. However, in the afternoon, the EC2512 contract dropped significantly because MSK opened cabins and lowered prices. The EC2512 contract has a neutral valuation and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rate in late November will determine the implementation of the price - holding strategy in December. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term following the spot price and shipping companies' announcements. The EC2602 contract's valuation is harder to determine and is expected to mainly follow the EC2512 contract in the short - term. If the shipping volume during the peak season is gradually realized, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential. The EC2604 contract is a slack - season contract. It will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term during the peak - season logic. Considering the greater supply pressure and the slack season in April next year, a short - selling strategy is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1746.1, down 1.81%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1690.5, up 5.33%; the EC2604 contract closed at 1187.8, up 1.86%; the FC2606 contract closed at 1423.9, up 2.06%; the EC2608 contract closed at 1545.0, up 3.33%; the EC2610 contract closed at 1137.5, up 0.30% [2]. - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of the EC2512 contract decreased by 1475 to 25205; the EC2602 contract increased by 4654 to 29350; the EC2604 contract increased by 279 to 14730; the FC2606 contract decreased by 23 to 1423; the EC2608 contract decreased by 73 to 1213; the EC2610 contract increased by 122 to 1607 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 558.3, down 56.8 from the previous day and 109.0 from the previous week; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 55.6, down 117.7 from the previous day and 203.9 from the previous week; the EC2502 - 2604 spread was 502.7, up 63.9 from the previous day and 94.9 from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Spot Indices - **SCEIS**: Updated every Monday, as of November 10, 2025, it was 1504.80 points, up 24.50% from the previous period and down - 7.92% from two periods ago [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, down - 1.56% from the previous period and up 7.87% from two periods ago [2]. - **CCFI**: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 1366.85 points, up 3.25% from the previous period and up 2.37% from two periods ago [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 911.73 points, down - 5.58% from the previous period and up 17.43% from two periods ago [2]. 3.3 Recent European Line Freight Quotes - **45th Week**: The average freight rate was about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures disk) [2]. - **46th Week**: The average freight rate was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures disk) [2]. - **Shipping Companies' Quotes**: Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 US dollars for mid - to - late November, but MSK opened cabins at 2250 US dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period). It is expected that other shipping companies will gradually lower their quotes this week and may announce a price increase for December. OOCL lowered its online quote for November by 300 US dollars to 2600 US dollars. MSK's cabin - opening quote for the 48th week was 1900 - 2000 US dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 US dollars on the futures disk [2]. 3.4 Related News - **Geopolitical News**: As of November 10, the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has expired. Israel and Hamas accused each other of violating the agreement, and the second - stage cease - fire negotiation is still "far from sight" [3]. - **Policy News**: Starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China will suspend the implementation of relevant regulations on charging special port fees for US ships for one year, synchronizing with the US suspension of the final measures of the 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [4].
永安期货纸浆早报-20251112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 01:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Content SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on November 11, 2025, was 5484.00. The closing prices from November 5 - 11 showed fluctuations, with the highest increase of 1.37189% on November 10 compared to the previous day [3]. - The discount to US dollar prices also fluctuated during this period, with the price on November 11 being 671.16 [3]. - The basis of Shandong Yinxing and Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing also changed daily, with the Shandong Yinxing basis on November 11 being 56 and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis being 81 [3]. Import Pulp Information - For imported pulp from different origins and brands, taking a 13% VAT calculation, the Canadian Golden Lion had a port US dollar price of 780, a Shandong - area RMB price of 6200, and an import profit of - 145.57; the Canadian Lion had a port US dollar price of 730, a Shandong - area RMB price of 5500, and an import profit of - 443.29; the Chilean Silver Star had a port US dollar price of 680, a Shandong - area RMB price of 5540, and an import profit of - 1.01 [4]. Pulp and Paper Price and Margin Information - From November 5 - 11, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural color pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, and so did the Shandong - area average prices [4]. - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and living paper (living index) also remained unchanged from November 6 - 11 [4]. - However, the estimated profit margins of these papers changed. For example, the double - offset profit margin decreased from - 0.2151% on November 6 to - 1.0753% on November 11, a decrease of 0.3527; the double - copper profit margin decreased from 12.9032% to 12.1935%, a decrease of 0.2904; the white - card profit margin decreased from - 7.6381% to - 8.1551%, a decrease of 0.2115; and the living paper profit margin decreased from 6.5730% to 4.7968%, a decrease of 0.4583 [4]. Pulp Price Difference Information - From November 5 - 11, 2025, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural color pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper pulp all showed certain changes. For example, the softwood - hardwood price difference decreased from 1250 on November 5 to 1180 on November 11 [4].
永安期货贵金属早报-20251112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 01:11
Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4090.25 with no change [1] - London Silver's latest price is 50.04 with no change [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1554.00 with no change [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1414.00, up 18.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 60.13 with no change [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10809.00, up 29.50 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 99.62 with no change [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.16 with no change [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.32 with no change [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest exchange rate is 154.13 with no change [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.84 with no change [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 14901.82 with no change [1] - SHFE Silver inventory is 591.88, down 18.10 [1] - Gold ETF holdings are 1042.06 with no change [1] - Silver ETF holdings are 15088.63 with no change [1] - SGE Silver inventory is 905.24 with no change [1] - SGE Gold deferred - fee payment direction is 1 with no change [1] - SGE Silver deferred - fee payment direction is 2 with no change [1]
永安期货钢材早报-20251112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 01:11
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from November 5th to 11th, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. For example, the price of Beijing's rebar increased from 3130 on November 5th to 3200 on November 11th, with a change of 10. The price of Shanghai's hot - rolled coil decreased by 40, while the price of Le Cong's hot - rolled coil increased by 110 [1] Basis and Spread - No information provided Output and Inventory - No information provided
大类资产早报-20251112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 01:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The report presents the performance of global asset markets on November 12, 2025, including data on bonds, currencies, stock indices, and futures transactions [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Bond Yields**: 10 - year bond yields of major economies such as the US (4.117%), UK (4.387%), and Japan (1.685%) are reported, along with 2 - year bond yields like the US (3.592%) and UK (3.720%) [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are given, e.g., the US dollar to Brazilian real is 5.273, and it also shows on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates [2]. - **Stock Indices**: It lists the latest values of major global stock indices, such as the S&P 500 (6846.610), Dow Jones Industrial Index (47927.960), and Shanghai Composite Index (4002.758) [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values of various credit bond indices are provided, including US investment - grade (3523.740) and high - yield (2880.940) credit bond indices [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are presented, with CSI 300 down 0.91% and ChiNext down 1.40% [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for indices like CSI 300 (14.27, - 0.09) and S&P 500 (28.46, 0.05) [3]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium and its环比 changes are shown for S&P 500 (- 0.60, 0.00) and German DAX (2.36, - 0.02) [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest and 5 - day average fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are reported, with A - shares' latest fund flow at - 1048.10 [3]. - **Transaction Amount**: The latest transaction amounts and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and related indices are given, e.g., the latest transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 19935.86, with a环比 change of - 1808.68 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis and basis percentage for IF, IH, and IC are provided, with IF's basis at - 25.37 and a basis percentage of - 0.55% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T2303 (108.48, - 0.01%), TF2303 (105.94, - 0.00%), T2306 (108.24, - 0.02%), and TF2306 (105.89, - 0.02%) are reported [4]. Money Market - The latest domestic money market rates (R001: 1.5361%, R007: 1.5145%, SHIBOR - 3M: 1.5800%) and their daily changes (4.00 BP, 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP) are given [4].