油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/12 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： Anec预计巴西11月大豆出口量为426万吨 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）表示，巴西11月大豆出口量料为426万吨，上周预测为377万吨。巴西11月豆粕出 口量料为247万吨，上周预测为223万吨。 Secex：巴西11月第一周出口大豆1,177,456.20吨 巴西对外贸易秘书处（Secex）公布的出口数据显示，巴西11月第一周出口大豆1,177,456.20吨，日均出口量为 235,491.24吨，较上年11月全月的日均出口量134,370.20吨增加75%。上年11月全月出口量为2,553,033.89吨。 Conab：截至11月8日当周，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植率为58.4% Conab公布的数据显示，截至11月8日当周，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植率为58.4%，此前一周为47.1%，上年同期为 66.1%，五年均值为57.0%。 主 产 国 降 水 情 况 进 口 大 豆 盘 面 压 榨 利 润 油 脂 进 口 利 润 | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Information - Report Date: 2025/11/12 [1] - Report Type: Ferroalloy Morning Report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the ferroalloy market, including price, supply, demand, inventory, cost, and profit data for silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2021 to 2025 [2][4][5][6][7] Key Points by Category Price - **Silicon Iron**: Prices vary by region and grade, with daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron natural block is 5180 yuan, up 30 yuan daily and weekly [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar to silicon iron, prices vary by region and grade, with different daily and weekly changes. For instance, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese is 5620 yuan, unchanged daily and weekly [2] Supply - **Silicon Iron**: Production data includes monthly and weekly output, capacity utilization, and开工率 of 136 silicon iron production enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [4] - **Silicon Manganese**: Production data such as weekly output, procurement volume, and开工率 of silicon manganese in China are presented from 2021 - 2025 [6] Demand - **Silicon Iron**: Demand - related data includes exports, consumption in industries like steel and magnesium production, and procurement by enterprises such as Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2021 - 2025 [4] - **Silicon Manganese**: Demand data includes domestic demand in China (steel - related) and export volume from 2021 - 2025 [7] Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: Inventory data covers 60 sample enterprises in China, including total inventory, regional inventory, and warehouse receipts + effective forecasts from 2021 - 2025 [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: Inventory data includes warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [7] Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: Cost factors include electricity prices, raw material prices (such as semi - coke), and profit data includes production profit, export profit, and profit after conversion to the main contract [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: Cost factors involve raw material prices (such as manganese ore) and profit data includes regional profit and profit after conversion to the main contract from 2021 - 2025 [6][7]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Coke Daily Report [1] - Date: November 12, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Price Information - Shanxi Standard First - Wet Quenching Coke Price: 1591.62, with daily change 0.00, weekly change 54.61, monthly change 109.23, and year - on - year change - 15.71% [2] - Hebei Standard First - Dry Quenching Coke Price: 1845.00, with daily change 0.00, weekly change 55.00, monthly change 110.00, and year - on - year change 1.93% [2] - Shandong Standard First - Dry Quenching Coke Price: 1770.00, with daily change 0.00, weekly change 55.00, monthly change 110.00, and year - on - year change - 14.29% [2] - Jiangsu Standard First - Dry Quenching Coke Price: 1810.00, with daily change 0.00, weekly change 55.00, monthly change 110.00, and year - on - year change - 14.01% [2] Group 3: Production and Utilization Information - Blast Furnace Operating Rate: 87.81, with weekly change - 0.80, monthly change - 2.74, and year - on - year change - 0.67% [2] - Average Daily Hot Metal Output: 234.22, with weekly change - 2.14, monthly change - 7.32, and year - on - year change 0.07% [2] - Coking Capacity Utilization Rate: 72.74, with weekly change - 0.42, monthly change - 2.26, and year - on - year change - 0.49% [2] - Average Daily Coke Output: 53.14, with weekly change - 0.16, monthly change 0.83, and year - on - year change 5.19% [2] Group 4: Inventory Information - Coking Plant Inventory: 36.50, with weekly change - 1.02, monthly change - 6.04, and year - on - year change - 17.16% [2] - Port Inventory: 202.11, with weekly change - 8.99, monthly change 7.02, and year - on - year change 16.73% [2] - Steel Mill Inventory: 626.64, with weekly change - 2.41, monthly change - 24.18, and year - on - year change 7.76% [2] - Steel Mill Inventory Days: 11.07, with weekly change - 0.50, monthly change - 0.35, and year - on - year change - 0.81% [2] Group 5: Futures Market Information - Futures Contract 05 Price: 1856.5, with daily change - 18.50, weekly change - 26.00, monthly change 59.50, and year - on - year change - 8.61% [2] - Futures Contract 09 Price: 1939.5, with daily change - 13.50, weekly change - 28.00, monthly change 60.00, and year - on - year change - 6.71% [2] - Futures Contract 01 Price: 1722, with daily change - 26.00, weekly change - 18.50, monthly change 73.50, and year - on - year change - 11.76% [2] - 05 Basis: 48.47, with daily change 18.50, weekly change 26.00, monthly change 74.08, and year - on - year change - 71.21 [2] - 09 Basis: - 34.53, with daily change 13.50, weekly change 28.00, monthly change 73.58, and year - on - year change - 106.71 [2] - 01 Basis: 182.97, with daily change 26.00, weekly change 18.50, monthly change 60.08, and year - on - year change - 16.71 [2] - 5 - 9 Spread: - 134.50, with daily change - 7.50, weekly change 7.50, monthly change 14.00, and year - on - year change - 54.50 [2] - 9 - 1 Spread: - 83.00, with daily change - 5.00, weekly change 2.00, monthly change - 0.50, and year - on - year change - 35.50 [2] - 1 - 5 Spread: 217.50, with daily change 12.50, weekly change - 9.50, monthly change - 13.50, and year - on - year change 90.00 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices made a slight correction this week, finding support at the 85,000 level from downstream concentrated price fixing. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, with the fundamentals remaining stable but weak. The 85,000 level is a psychological price for downstream price fixing, and the industry support at this level should be monitored [1]. - The long - term reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in Iceland has been finalized, and the high electricity prices overseas have increased the expectation of production cuts in other capacities. Aluminum prices have strengthened significantly, but the domestic demand for aluminum ingots and aluminum products has weakened, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The future supply and demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, and it is likely to rise in the long - term, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - The center of zinc prices has risen this week. The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The export window has opened under the current pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets. Given the weak domestic consumption and potential short - term supply reduction at the end of the year, the price may not fall deeply. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. Steel mills increased production slightly in October, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and inventory remains at a high level. With the Indonesian policy having a certain motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [9]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week, and the near - term spread strengthened. The supply - demand mismatch has been partially alleviated, but the demand is expected to weaken. It is predicted that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, and cautious operation is recommended [12]. - Tin prices fluctuated this week. The supply has marginally recovered, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity. The domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand in Q4 are expected to be in a slightly loose balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [16]. - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is generally decreasing. The upward potential in the future depends on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding willingness [16]. - The supply of nickel is slightly reduced, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the spot premium of Shanghai copper fluctuated, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 825, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices corrected slightly. The market is generally not pessimistic about next year's demand. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until Q1 next year, and the 85,000 level may be a psychological price for downstream price fixing [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots increased, the domestic and imported alumina prices remained unchanged, the domestic social inventory of aluminum was not provided in the table, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The long - term reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in Iceland has been finalized, and high overseas electricity prices have increased the expectation of production cuts. Aluminum prices have strengthened, but the domestic demand has weakened, and the inventory has increased. The future supply and demand may remain in a tight balance [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the spot premium of zinc changed, the prices of zinc ingots in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong increased, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 400 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The export window has opened. Given the weak domestic consumption and potential short - term supply reduction at the end of the year, the price may not fall deeply [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the price of 304 hot - rolled coils decreased by 50, and the prices of other products remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. Steel mills increased production slightly in October, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and inventory remains at a high level [9]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the spot premium of lead remained unchanged, the social inventory was not clearly presented in the table, and the LME inventory increased by 24,525 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply - demand mismatch has been partially alleviated, but the demand is expected to weaken. It is predicted that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the spot import and export earnings of tin changed, the LME inventory decreased by 20 [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of tin has marginally recovered, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity. The domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the basis of industrial silicon in different regions changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 176 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 are expected to be in a slightly loose balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the prices of SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased, the basis of the main and near - term contracts changed, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 608 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is generally decreasing [16]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel increased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 96 [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of nickel is slightly reduced, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [19].

焦煤日报 2025/11/12 研究中心黑色团队 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1645.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 95.00 | 3.46% Peak Downs | 212.00 | -0.50 | 0.50 | 6.50 | -8.00 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1111.00 | -34.00 | -59.00 | 69.00 | -1.68% Goonyella | 211.50 | -1.00 | 0.00 | 6.00 | -8.50 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1550.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 130.00 | -6.63% 盘面05 | 1289.00 | -9.50 | -34.00 | 66.00 | -6.42% | | 安泽主焦 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | 60.00 | 130.00 | 0.61% 盘 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian shutdowns slower than expected. November is likely to see high imports, and it's difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it doesn't affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Foreign markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have decreased slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB price of caustic soda exports is 380, and attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of methanol in different regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2082 to 2070, and the Northwest discounted - to - futures price reached 2603 on November 10 [1]. - **Profit and Basis**: Import profit,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 also changed during this period. The主力基差 remained at - 40 on November 11, and the import profit decreased slightly [1]. Polyethylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, prices of different types of polyethylene in various regions changed. For example, the price of East China LL decreased from 7025 to 6950. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased from 71 to 12073, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased from 12669 to 12073 [6]. - **Market Indicators**: The basis of the 09 contract, import profit, and other indicators are also provided. The import profit is around - 200, and the basis in North China and East China is - 110 and - 50 respectively [6]. Polypropylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, prices of polypropylene in different regions and related raw materials changed. For example, the price of East China PP increased from 6425 to 6375. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased from 71 to 14629, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 14629 [6]. - **Profit and Market Indicators**: Export profit,主力期货 price, and basis are also included. The export profit was - 18 on November 5 and - 11 on November 10, and the basis remained at - 100 [6]. PVC - **Price and Cost Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, prices of PVC in different production methods and regions changed. For example, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased from 4610 to 4570. The price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2400, and the price of Shandong caustic soda remained at 807 [6]. - **Profit and Basis**: Export profit, comprehensive profit, and basis are also provided. The basis of high - end delivery products decreased from - 70 to - 90 [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: November 12, 2025 [1] - Report team: Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - Corn prices in different regions (Changchun, Jinzhou, Weifang, Shekou) increased by 20, 10, 10, and 30 respectively from November 5 - 11, 2025; the base difference decreased by 3, and trade profit and import profit increased by 20 and 22 respectively [2] - Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged, the base difference decreased by 11, and processing profit remained stable [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are pushed up slightly by unstable grain supply but limited by weak downstream consumption; starch prices follow raw material prices, and high inventory suppresses prices [3] - Medium - to - long - term: Corn prices may rebound after the first selling peak; starch price trends depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - Sugar spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming had a change of 30; the base difference increased by 25, import profit decreased by 17, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 64 from November 5 - 6, 2025 [4][5] Market Analysis - Short - term: Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import quota management and syrup pre - mixed powder import control than the external market; domestic sugar cost is the key support [5] - Medium - to - long - term: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar cost may be broken through; maintain a short - selling strategy, but the downward space is limited [5] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - Cotton prices (3128 and imported M - grade US cotton) and related data had certain changes from November 5 - 11, 2025; the import profit of imported M - grade US cotton increased by 88 [6][17] Market Analysis - Short - to - medium - term: New cotton production is estimated to be lower; the good result of the Sino - US meeting in Busan is beneficial to textile exports, and it is suitable for long - term long positions [8] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - Egg prices in different production areas (Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, Hubei) had small changes from November 5 - 11, 2025; the base difference increased by 82 [14] Market Analysis - Short - term: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand increases, pushing up the price center; there is no obvious over - elimination signal [14] - Medium - to - long - term: Focus on the change of elimination rhythm, which may drive prices up [14] Group 6: Apples Price Data - Apple spot prices in Shandong remained at 8000; the national inventory decreased by 70, Shandong and Shaanxi inventories decreased by 29; the base difference in different months changed [15][16] Market Analysis - Short - term: The price of new - season apples is affected by weather, and the market is volatile [16] - Medium - to - long - term: The national production may decrease, and the quality in some areas is affected by rain [16] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - Pig prices in different production areas (Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, Jiangsu Nantong) decreased slightly from November 5 - 11, 2025; the base difference increased by 100 [16] Market Analysis - Short - term: The market is in a volatile game, with farmers' price - holding mentality and insufficient demand [16] - Medium - to - long - term: The supply pressure remains, and the key is the path of capacity and inventory reduction; pay attention to various influencing factors [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: Near - term TA partial device maintenance leads to a decline in start - up rate, polyester load remains stable, inventory accumulates, and basis is weak. PX domestic start - up recovers. In the future, TA low processing fees have persisted for a long time, and with the improvement of terminal data, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - **MEG**: Near - term domestic oil - based operation is stable, coal - based has maintenance and some load reduction, load declines, overseas devices operate stably, port inventory accumulates. In the short term, inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but considering the low efficiency, supply may decrease, and the valuation has limited room to decline further. In the long term, the overall pattern is expected to weaken [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term start - up rate increases, sales decline, inventory remains stable. Short - fiber exports maintain high growth, with limited inventory pressure and low processing fees on the disk. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices and the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - **Natural Rubber**: National explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level, Thai cup - rubber prices are stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. - **Styrene**: The prices of raw materials and products have certain fluctuations, and the domestic profit of styrene and some downstream products has changed. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From November 5th to 11th, crude oil increased by $1.1, PTA spot price decreased by $5, and processing fees increased by 34 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million - ton device is under maintenance [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Low processing fees may gradually recover due to terminal data improvement [2]. MEG - **Price and Spread Changes**: From November 5th to 11th, MEG outer - disk price decreased by $3, and coal - based profit decreased by $22 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yankuang's 400,000 - ton and Zhonghuaxue's 300,000 - ton devices are under maintenance [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term inventory accumulation may continue, but supply may decrease, and long - term pattern may weaken [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Spread Changes**: On November 11th compared with November 5th, 1.4D cotton - type short - fiber price decreased by $50, and short - fiber profit decreased by $45 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Fujian Shanli restarts, and the start - up rate increases to 96.8% [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices and warehouse receipt situation [2]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: Weekly, the prices of dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber increased by $30, and the prices of Shanghai full - latex and 3L rubber increased by $235 and $100 respectively [5]. - **Market Outlook**: With stable inventory and rainfall affecting tapping, the strategy is to wait and see [5]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From November 5th to 11th, the price of styrene in Jiangsu decreased by $10, and the domestic profit of styrene increased by $80 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The prices of raw materials and products fluctuate, and the profit situation of products changes.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 12, 2025 [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 86,750, LME price is 10,788, with a ratio of 8.02; March domestic price is 86,720, LME price is 10,809, ratio 8.02. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.08, profit is - 502.58, and spot export profit is 118.66 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 22,660, LME price is 3,188, ratio 7.11; March domestic price is 22,705, LME price is 3,071, ratio 5.68. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.50, profit is - 4438.29 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 21,620, LME price is 2,853, ratio 7.58; March domestic price is 21,665, LME price is 2,877, ratio 7.54. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.33, profit is - 2136.61 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 122,950, LME price is 14,874, ratio 8.27. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.18, profit is - 1805.20 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 17,300, LME price is 2,030, ratio 8.52; March domestic price is 17,450, LME price is 2,051, ratio 11.06. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.72, profit is - 399.90 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month and spot - month, March and spot - month, April and spot - month, May and spot - month are 150, 240, 210, 210 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 534, 967, 1408, 1850 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 60, 90, 115, 110, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads are - 35, 15, 20, 30, and the theoretical spreads are 219, 340, 460, 580 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 35, 45, 55, 40, and the theoretical spreads are 212, 320, 428, 536 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads are 220, 370, 580, 800 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 980, and the theoretical spread is 5957 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month contract and spot, next - month contract and spot are - 235, - 85, and the theoretical spreads are 93, 594 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are - 45, 15, and the theoretical spreads are 85, 217 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 105, 140, and the theoretical spreads are 103, 218 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.82, 4.00, 4.97, 0.95, 1.24, 0.77, and in London (three - continuous) are 3.53, 3.77, 5.25, 0.94, 1.39, 0.67 [5].

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/12 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/05 | 2220 | 2281 | 2046 | 2213 | 2241 | 2100 | | 2025/11/06 | 2217 | 2279 | 2038 | 2206 | 2233 | 2099 | | 2025/11/07 | 2216 | 2277 | 2038 | 2206 | 2225 | 2099 | | 2025/11/10 | 2209 | 2277 | 2034 | 2206 | 2222 | 2096 | | 2025/11/11 | 2208 | 2278 | 2037 | 2208 | 2220 | 2097 | | 环比 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 1 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析 ...