焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/4 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1594.81 | 0.00 | -54.61 | 3.19 | -9.99% 高炉开工率 | 87.98 | | -0.60 | -0.63 | -0.62% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1845.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 0.00 | 7.89% 铁水日均产量 | 234.68 | | -1.60 | -1.68 | 0.35% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1770.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 0.00 | -9.46% 盘面05 | 1749 | -12.00 | -7.50 | -136.00 | -10.79% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1810.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 0.00 | -9.27% 盘面09 | 1813 | -20.5 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 4, 2025 [3] 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Information - On December 3, the BR12 main contract price was 10,575, down 110 from the previous day and up 175 from the previous week [4]. - Open interest was 38,986, down 6,617 from the previous day and down 19,843 from the previous week [4]. - Trading volume was 122,663, down 48,624 from the previous day and up 40,181 from the previous week [4]. - Warehouse receipt quantity was 15,450, down 40 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4]. - The virtual - real ratio was 12.62, down 2 from the previous day and down 6 from the previous week [4]. Basis/Spread Information - The butadiene rubber basis was -75, up 110 from the previous day and down 75 from the previous week [4]. - The 12 - 01 spread was -65, down 10 from the previous day and down 40 from the previous week [4]. - The 01 - 02 spread was 5, up 20 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4]. - The RU - BR spread was 4,635, down 40 from the previous day and down 245 from the previous week [4]. - The NR - BR spread was 1,510, down 35 from the previous day and down 295 from the previous week [4]. Spot and Price Information - The Shandong market price was 10,500, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week [4]. - The Transfar market price was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and up 70 from the previous week [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,600, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week [4]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,300, down 25 from the previous day and down 25 from the previous week [4]. - CFR Southeast Asia was 1,575, down 25 from the previous day and down 25 from the previous week [4]. Profit Information - Spot processing profit was 727, up 77 from the previous day and down 130 from the previous week [4]. - Import profit was -390, up 199 from the previous day and up 317 from the previous week [4]. - Export profit was 1,356, down 176 from the previous day and down 281 from the previous week [4]. 2. BD (Butadiene) Spot and Price Information - The Shandong market price was 7,425, down 75 from the previous day and up 225 from the previous week [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 7,250, unchanged from the previous day and up 250 from the previous week [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,100, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4]. - CFR China was 850, up 30 from the previous day and up 30 from the previous week [4]. Profit Information - The ethylene cracking profit data was unavailable [4]. - The carbon four extraction profit data was partially unavailable [4]. - The import profit was 309, down 240 from the previous day and up 21 from the previous week [4]. - The export profit was -1,155, unchanged from the previous day and down 438 from the previous week [4]. - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,563, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week [4]. - The ABS production profit data was unavailable [4]. - The SBS production profit was -335, down 30 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week [4].

研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/04 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | 淀粉 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/27 | 2070 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | -3 | 50 | 260 | 2700 | 2850 | 133 | -9 | | 2025/11/28 | 2090 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | -4 | 45 | - | 2700 | 2850 | 139 | -29 | | 2025/12/01 | 2120 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | 4 | 45 | - | 2700 | 2850 | 163 | -47 | | 2025/12/02 | 2120 | 2240 | 2210 | 2430 | -3 | 35 | - | 2700 ...

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5100 | 0 | 0 | 5400 | 主力合约 | 5446 | -2 | 30 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5170 | 0 | 50 | 5520 | 01合约 | 5394 | -16 | 2 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5150 | 0 | 0 | 5480 | 05合约 | 5408 | -2 | 32 | | | 陕西#72 | 5080 | 0 | 0 | 5380 | 09合约 | 5472 | 2 | 4 | | | 陕西#75 | 5650 | 0 | -50 | | 主力月基差 | -46 | 2 | -30 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5400 | - ...

Group 1: SP Main Contract Closing Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on December 3, 2025, was 5458.00 [3] - The corresponding US dollar price was 658.04, and the daily change was 2.43994% [3] - The basis of Shandong Yinxing was 67, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was also 67 [3] Group 2: Import Profit and Price - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion was -101.50, and that of Lion was -492.04 [4] - The import profit of Chilean Silver Star was 22.41 [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From November 27 to December 3, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged [4] - The average prices in Shandong region also remained unchanged during the same period [4] Group 4: Paper Index and Profit Margin - The cultural paper, packaging paper and living paper indices remained unchanged from November 28 to December 3, 2025 [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - coated paper, white cardboard and living paper changed by -0.7016, -0.6195, -0.4439 and -0.4164 respectively during this period [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - On December 3, 2025, the softwood - hardwood pulp price spread was 1025.00, the softwood - natural pulp spread was 125, the softwood - chemimechanical pulp spread was 1725 and the softwood - waste paper spread was 3949 [4]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/04 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/11/2 7 801 2100 2073 2410 2410 2390 2590 247 317 -34 -11 - 2025/11/2 8 801 2110 2080 2410 2410 2390 2593 247 317 -19 -20 - 2025/12/0 1 801 2115 2085 2425 2410 2390 2595 247 317 -14 -15 - 2025/12/0 2 801 2127 2100 2435 2475 2390 2600 - 317 - -25 - 2025/12/0 3 801 - - - 2475 - - - - - -24 - 日度变化 0 - - - 0 - - - - - 1 - 伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运110w，预计12-1月进口下 ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: December 4, 2025 - **Reporting Team**: Research Center Non - ferrous Metals Team 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view from CESCO copper meetings is that buying on dips is the main strategy for copper, with an expected upward shift in the copper price center to the range of $10,500 - $11,300. For aluminum, the short - term trend may be volatile, with a shift from a supply - demand balance in early 2026 to a tighter situation later. Zinc prices are expected to have a limited decline in the short - term, and different trading strategies are recommended. Nickel and stainless steel fundamentals are weak, with opportunities for short - selling on rallies. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, and caution is advised. Tin prices have an upward - moving center, and long - position strategies near the cost line are suggested. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. Lithium carbonate prices are in a volatile state, and the upward potential depends on inventory reduction and other factors [1][2][3][5][8][9]. 3. Summary of Each Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 35, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 340, and the LME inventory increased by 350 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price center is expected to move up to the $10,500 - $11,300 range. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased domestic grid demand in 2026, global computing center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. The bearish factor to watch is the potential outflow of North American inventory if US tariffs are removed [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, Shanghai aluminum ingot prices increased by 90, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2500. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased significantly, and downstream products also continued to reduce inventory [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the zinc price fluctuated, the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium increased to $224, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic zinc fundamentals are currently poor, but there will be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 contracts [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the price of Shanghai nickel increased by 350, and the domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals are weak. With continuous disruptions in the Indonesian mining sector and policy support for prices, opportunities for short - selling on rallies should be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the prices of various stainless - steel products remained unchanged, and the inventory remained at a high level [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamentals are weak. With some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies, opportunities for short - selling on rallies should be monitored [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the lead price decreased, the social inventory decreased slightly to 35,000 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 3800 [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200 next week. Attention should be paid to the increase in warehouse receipts and the price - support situation of waste batteries, and cautious operation is recommended [5]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the center of the tin price increased, the LME inventory increased by 50, and the trading volume increased by 7721 [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the fundamentals are acceptable. It is recommended to hold long positions near the cost line or use tin as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will increase but with limited elasticity and many disturbing factors [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the basis of different grades changed, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 108 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a slightly loose balance, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the prices of SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased slightly, the basis of the main contract increased by 2850, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 660 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking range is expected to maintain at 5,000 - 6,000 tons. The upward potential depends on inventory reduction and the improvement of speculative demand [9].

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/04 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/11/27 | 3210 | 3220 | 3210 | 3250 | 3480 | 3360 | | 2025/11/28 | 3210 | 3260 | 3210 | 3250 | 3510 | 3390 | | 2025/12/01 | 3250 | 3310 | 3290 | 3310 | 3560 | 3430 | | 2025/12/02 | 3250 | 3320 | 3300 | 3310 | 3560 | 3440 | | 2025/12/03 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | 上海冷卷 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant content Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread - On December 3, the Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 78, down 36 from the previous day; the East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) was 88, down 46; the South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) was 18, down 46 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread was -25 with no change; the 12 - 03 spread was -52; the 01 - 02 spread was -9, down 4 [3]. 2. Futures Contracts - The BU main - contract (01) price on December 3 was 2952, up 36. The trading volume was 510923, up 67578 (13% increase), and the open interest was 442532, down 32101 [3]. - The contract size remained at 4690 [3]. 3. Spot Market - On December 3, Brent crude oil was at 62.5, down 0.7. The prices of Jingbo, Zhenjiang Warehouse, and Foshan Warehouse decreased by 10, while Hongrun's price remained unchanged [3]. 4. Profits - On December 3, the asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 163, up 25, and the Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit was 776, up 21 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, focus on opportunities for low - level positive spreads and expanding processing fees [2][10] - For MEG, in the short - term, consider selling put options, while in the long - term, the overall pattern is expected to be weak [3] - For polyester short - fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [3] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber price affected by rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Near - end TA partial device restarts, start - up increases, polyester load slightly rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens, and spot processing fee weakens. PX domestic start - up declines, overseas partial devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, and isomerization benefit is stable. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon price difference shrinks. In the future, TA maintains high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, so the inventory accumulation slope is not high, and PX pattern is good [2] - PTA spot average daily trading basis is 2601(-34), and Honggang 250 - million - ton device restarts [9] MEG - Near - end domestic coal - chemical industry restarts intensively, start - up increases, overseas partial devices are under maintenance, port inventory is stable at the beginning of next week, weekly arrival forecast is low, basis weakens, and coal - based profit slightly improves. In the future, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, and the current valuation compression space may be limited. Pay attention to short - term put - selling opportunities, while the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [3] - Shenghong's 900,000 - ton device restarts, and MEG spot basis is near 01(-1) [3] Polyester Short - Fiber - Near - end device operation is stable, start - up is maintained at 97.5%, sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material inventory decreases, and finished product inventory accumulates. In the future, short - fiber demand basically maintains the previous state, short - fiber export maintains high growth, short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and pay attention to warehouse receipt situation [3] - Spot price is near 6337, and market basis is near 01 - 100 [3] Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - National explicit inventory is stable and at a low absolute level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Styrene - Daily changes show that ethylene price is stable, pure benzene price has minor changes, and styrene price increases. Domestic profits of styrene, EPS, and PS have different degrees of improvement [7] PX - PX domestic start - up declines, overseas partial devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, and isomerization benefit is stable. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon price difference shrinks [2]