1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are对标 to the shipping space in the second half of December, and the expected trend is stable with a slight increase [3]. - The EC2602 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there is a game for the peak - season price height. Although high shipping capacity limits the upside, there is no overly pessimistic expectation because the pre - Spring Festival concentrated shipment has not fully started, the cargo volume on the European route has been strong this year with obvious seasonal features, and the contract covers the freight rates from the second half of January to the first ten days of February, and the seasonal freight rate peak is usually 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival [3]. - The short - term downside space of the EC2604 contract is small, and it is still recommended to adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **EC2512**: Yesterday's closing price was 1653.5, up 1.22%, trading volume was 523, and open interest was 3813 with a decrease of 216 [2]. - **EC2602**: Yesterday's closing price was 1540.1, up 0.38%, trading volume was 22299, and open interest was 35008 with a decrease of 1354 [2]. - **EC2604**: Yesterday's closing price was 1083.1, up 1.03%, trading volume was 3303, and open interest was 18997 with a decrease of 156 [2]. - **EC2606**: Yesterday's closing price was 1254.5, up 1.73%, trading volume was 381, and open interest was 2167 with an increase of 13 [2]. - **EC2608**: Yesterday's closing price was 1380.1, up 0.38%, trading volume was 247, and open interest was 157 with a decrease of 18 [2]. - **EC2610**: Yesterday's closing price was 1042.2, up 0.95%, trading volume data was not clear, and open interest was 3889 with a decrease of 57 [2]. 3.2 Month - spread Data - **EC2512 - 2504**: The spread was 8.9, compared with 561.5 the previous day, 558.7 two days ago, and the weekly comparison was 46.8 [2]. - **EC2512 - 2602**: The spread was 14.0, compared with 99.4 the previous day, 144.2 two days ago, and the weekly comparison was - 83.1 [2]. - **EC2502 - 2604**: The spread was - 5.1, compared with 462.1 the previous day, 414.5 two days ago, and the weekly comparison was 129.9 [2]. 3.3 Index Data - **SCFIS (European Route)**: Updated on Mondays, as of December 1, 2025, it was 1483.65 points, down 9.50% from the previous period, and up 20.715% in the last period [2]. - **SCFI (European Route)**: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period, and down 3.58% in the last period [2]. - **CCFI**: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period, and up 2.09% in the last period [2]. - **NCFI**: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period, and down 2.83% in the last period [2]. 3.4 Recent European Route Shipping Information - In the first half of December, the price increase announcement failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 US dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the futures market. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 US dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 US dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market [4]. - YML reduced the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 US dollars, while MSC increased the price by 200 to 2600 US dollars [4]. - In the second half of December, MSC announced a price increase to 3500 US dollars, ONE to 2800 US dollars, and MSK's opening price was 2400 US dollars. It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for January shipping space in early December [4]. - MSK's opening quotation for Week 51 was 2400 US dollars, a 200 - dollar increase from the previous period, equivalent to 1660 points on the futures market [4]. - MSK added a new ship, MDV ELECTRA, on January 20, with unknown shipping capacity [4].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No information provided Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Iron Ore Spot and Forward Market - The latest price of the Platts 62 Index is $107.80, with a daily change of $1.20 and a weekly change of $0.45 [1] - Different iron ore varieties such as Newman powder, PB powder, and Mac powder show various price changes in terms of daily, weekly, and import profit [1] Exchange Futures Market - For the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the latest price of i2601 is 799.5 yuan, with a daily change of -1.0 yuan and a weekly change of 2.5 yuan. The monthly - spread is -46.5, with a daily change of 27.8 and a weekly change of -6.7 [1] - The latest price of i2605 is 777.0 yuan, with a daily change of 1.5 yuan and a weekly change of 3.5 yuan. The monthly - spread is 22.5, with a daily change of 50.3 and a weekly change of -9.2 [1] - The latest price of i2609 is 753.0 yuan, with a daily change of 1.5 yuan and a weekly change of 4.5 yuan. The monthly - spread is 24.0, with a daily change of 74.3 and a weekly change of -12.2 [1] Other Market Data - PB block/block ore premium, U - ball/ball pellet premium, and other premiums also have corresponding price changes [1] - There are price differences and changes in basis/inside - outside market spreads and monthly spreads [1]

| 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3878.00 | 4531.05 | 2963.08 | 3036.79 | 6996.36 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.51 | -0.51 | -0.52 | -1.12 | -0.62 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 13.94 | 11.80 | 31.88 | 27.19 | 18.37 | | 环比变化 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.16 | 0.04 | -0.02 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | - | - | - | -0.39 | 2.70 | | 环比变化 | - | - | - | 0.01 | 0.01 | | 资金流向 | A股 | 主板 | 中小企业板 | 创业板 | 沪深300 | | 最新值 | -112 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest price, production and sales, inventory and profit data of glass and soda ash, and shows the relevant historical data trends through charts, but does not clearly put forward the core viewpoints [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Glass - **Price**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of 5mm glass in some regions changed slightly. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass of Shahe Safety increased from 1044.0 to 1061.0, while that of Shahe Great Wall decreased from 1044.0 to 1036.0. The FG05 contract price decreased from 1169.0 to 1125.0, and the FG01 contract price decreased from 1037.0 to 1020.0 [1]. - **Production and Sales**: On December 3, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 109, in Hubei was 99, in East China was 98, and in South China was 131 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of North China's coal - fired glass increased from 105.7 to 113.3, while the profit of South China's natural gas glass remained at - 188.1. The profit of North China's natural gas glass increased from - 306.6 to - 304.5. The profit of 05FG and 01FG on the natural gas futures market decreased [1]. Soda Ash - **Price**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in some regions changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased from 1160.0 to 1130.0. The SA05 contract price decreased from 1244.0 to 1233.0, and the SA01 contract price decreased from 1183.0 to 1165.0 [1]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory of the mid - upstream of the soda ash industry continued to decline, and the second - phase project of Yuanxing was put into production. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was about 1120, and the price delivered to Shahe was about 1130 [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of North China's ammonia - soda process first increased and then decreased, while the profit of North China's combined - soda process increased [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore weakened on Friday after oscillating. The monthly spread ran at a historical low, and the basis weakened and then oscillated at a historical low. The HSFO crack in Europe oscillated at a low level, and the EW weakened on Friday. The 0.5% crack in Singapore continued to weaken this week, with the monthly spread weakening and the basis oscillating at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had a significant inventory build - up, ARA residue oil had inventory draw - down, Fujairah residue oil had inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage oscillated at a high level, and EIA residue oil had a slight inventory draw - down. With the increasing expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the cracks of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21, it was shut down. The RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery is expected to enter maintenance in December, and VGO exports are expected to increase. The global heavy - oil market has entered the off - season with inventory build - up. The external crack is affected by crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement in the spot market. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The low - sulfur valuation is low but lacks a driving force [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil - From November 27 to December 3, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 3.17, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 2.60, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.49, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 11.78, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 9.18, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 1.97, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 0.57 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil - **Swap Data**: From November 27 to December 2, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price increased; for Singapore 180cst M1, the price increased; for Singapore VLSFO M1, the price had a small change; for Singapore Gasoil M1, the price had a small change; Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 had a change [2] - **Spot Data**: From November 27 to December 3, FOB 380cst decreased by 3.61, FOB VLSFO decreased by 5.31, the 380 basis increased by 0.95, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 0.9, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference increased by 1.8 [3] Domestic FU - From November 27 to December 3, FU 01 decreased by 32, FU 05 decreased by 33, FU 09 decreased by 36, FU 01 - 05 increased by 1, FU 05 - 09 increased by 3, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 4 [3] Domestic LU - From November 27 to December 3, LU 01 decreased by 20, LU 05 decreased by 32, LU 09 decreased by 26, LU 01 - 05 increased by 12, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 6, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 6 [4] Fuel Oil Morning Report - On December 3, 2025, the values were 343.38, 353.07, 419.63, 84.11, - 8.26, - 202.78, with changes of - 5.79, - 3.10, - 4.84, - 0.80, - 0.50, 1.08 respectively [8]

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/04 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17125 1963 8.70 三月 17180 2007 11.33 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.67 55.95 跨期套利跟踪 2025/12/04 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 340 360 360 290 理论价差 546 991 1444 1897 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 55 95 115 130 理论价差 217 339 462 584 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 70 120 135 140 理论价差 220 342 463 584 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 30 0 5 -20 理论价差 211 318 425 532 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 170 370 630 840 锡 5-1 价差 380 理论价差 6437 期现套利跟踪 2025/12/04 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -55 285 理论价 ...

波动率数据日报 永安期货期权总部 更新时间: 2025/12/3 一、隐含波动率指数、历史波动率及其价差走势图 0.80 ईम्न 65 0.59 PTA 0.71 45 0.40 15 0.68 50ETF 0.30 五年 0.57 PTA 0.26 白街 0.24 PVC | 0.15 天峻 0.16 r 天殿 0.12 300粒指 0.11 下米 0.10 雪 好 0.08 铁,4,6 0.05 50ETF 0.08 台新 0.05 线,46 0.04 L 雄花 PVC 0.01 0.00 棒花 互能 0.00 0 0.2 03 0.1 0.4 05 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 a 0.1 0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0 a 1 免费声明:本文所有内得均不符成改造仪、对文中信息的准确推料免费性不作任何保证;仅供学习交流。技资录像此作出的任何投资决策与产企司无关、授权仪为我 公司所有、未来市面许可。任何比高科个人不得以年同形式相談。提到发布。如引用、行发、规定明出处为水安和货公司、且不得进行有浮聚富的引用、量节科健改。 0.81 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on December 3, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5100 and 5170 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of -30 and 20; the latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract were 5448 and 5410, with daily changes of -18 and -10 and weekly changes of 0 and -14 [2] - For silicon manganese on December 3, 2025, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, and Guizhou 6517 were 5530, 5520, 5550, and 5520 respectively, with daily changes of 0, 10, 0, and 0 and weekly changes of 10, 40, 20, and 20; the latest price of the main contract was 5728, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of 92 [2] Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production (capacity ratio 95%), and the capacity utilization rates of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4] - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly production and the procurement prices and quantities of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6] Demand - The demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the estimated and actual production of Chinese crude steel, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement quantity of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the demand of silicon manganese in China (Steel Union caliber) [4][7] Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory, inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, and the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of the two [5] - The inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons), and the average available inventory days in China [7] Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including electricity prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, the market price of blue charcoal, the production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia (including folding the main contract and spot profit) and the export profit of 75 silicon ferroalloy [5] - The cost - related data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the prices of chemical coke, semi - carbonated manganese blocks, and manganese ore, and the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (Steel Union caliber) [6][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the CESCO copper conference shows that institutions and the industry generally agree on the idea of buying on dips. The copper price is expected to move up, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased demand from the domestic power grid in 2026, global computing power center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. Bearish factors mainly concern the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. - For aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded. Aluminum ingot inventories have decreased significantly, and downstream consumption is fair. It may show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. - For zinc, the zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as accelerating decline in domestic and imported TC, and some smelters have production changes. The demand side is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. The export window has opened, and the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [2]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad. Given the ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Considering the Indonesian policy's motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. - For lead, the lead price has declined this week, and trading has improved. Supply is abundant, while demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and social inventories are starting to accumulate. The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200, and cautious operation is recommended [4][5]. - For tin, the tin price has risen this week. The supply side has limited processing fees and various disturbances, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid needs. In the short - term, the fundamentals are fair, and it is recommended to hold near the cost line on price dips or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [8]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, due to over - capacity and low operating rates, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market has multiple expectations this week. The raw material supply is still tight, and the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons. However, due to high inventories in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the price increase still depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [9]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 20, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 309, and the LME inventory increased by 2,375 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to move up, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased demand from the domestic power grid in 2026, global computing power center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. Bearish factors mainly concern the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 80, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased significantly, and downstream products also showed inventory reduction [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded. It may show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 180, the LME zinc inventory increased by 350, and the LME zinc注销仓单 decreased by 250 [1][2]. - **Market Outlook**: The zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as accelerating decline in domestic and imported TC, and some smelters have production changes. The demand side is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. The export window has opened, and the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,290 [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad. Given the ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the price of 304 hot - rolled coils increased by 50, and other prices remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Considering the Indonesian policy's motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the lead price decreased, the LME lead inventory decreased by 3,925, and the LME lead注销仓单 decreased by 3,900 [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price has declined this week, and trading has improved. Supply is abundant, while demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and social inventories are starting to accumulate. The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200, and cautious operation is recommended [4][5]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the tin price increased, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15, and the LME tin注销仓单 remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price has risen this week. The supply side has limited processing fees and various disturbances, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid needs. In the short - term, the fundamentals are fair, and it is recommended to hold near the cost line on price dips or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the basis of 421 silicon in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 170, and the basis of 553 silicon in East China and Tianjin also increased by 170. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 188 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, due to over - capacity and low operating rates, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 50, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 770 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The market has multiple expectations this week. The raw material supply is still tight, and the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons. However, due to high inventories in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the price increase still depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [9].

Report Summary Price Performance - London Gold price is 4214.75, down 24.10 [1] - London Silver price is 57.44, down 0.05 [1] - London Platinum price is 1677.00, up 37.00 [1] - London Palladium price is 1462.00, up 14.00 [1] - WTI Crude price is 58.64, down 0.68 [1] - LME Copper price is 11193.50, down 48.00 [1] - US Dollar Index is 99.32, down 0.09 [1] - Euro to US Dollar is 1.16, unchanged [1] - British Pound to US Dollar is 1.32, unchanged [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 155.87, up 0.39 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 14181.12, down 1.90 [2] - SHFE Silver inventory is 594.63, up 20.93 [2] - Gold ETF holdings are 1048.29, down 1.72 [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange Silver deferred fee payment direction is 1, down 1.00 [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange Silver (second entry) deferred fee payment direction is 2, unchanged [2]