Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Industry analysts estimate that for the week ending August 7, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by a net of 60 - 160 million tons, with 20 - 70 million tons for the 2024 - 25 season and 40 - 90 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by a net of 15 - 50 million tons, with 5 - 25 million tons for the 2024 - 25 season and 10 - 25 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season. US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by a net of 0 - 2.2 million tons, with 0 - 1.8 million tons for the 2024 - 25 season and 0 - 0.4 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season [1]. - Malaysia has raised its reference price for crude palm oil in September, increasing the export tariff to 10%. The calculated reference price for September is 4,053.43 Malaysian ringgit (962.12 US dollars) per ton, up from 3,864.12 US dollars in August with an export tariff of 9%. The export tariff starts at 3% when the crude palm oil price is in the range of 2,250 - 2,400 Malaysian ringgit per ton and reaches a maximum of 10% when the price exceeds 4,050 Malaysian ringgit per ton [1]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has issued a risk warning letter, stating that there are many uncertain factors affecting the rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets recently and reminding member units to strengthen investor education and risk prevention [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales expectations for the week ending August 7 [1]. - Malaysia's adjustment of the reference price and export tariff for crude palm oil in September [1]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's risk warning letter [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 7 to August 13, 2025 are provided [1]. Other Information - Information on precipitation in major producing countries, import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, and grease import profit is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [1]. - Information on protein meal basis, grease basis, and grease - oilseed price spreads on the futures market is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high-sulfur fuel oil rebounded, the near-month spread rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded to $5.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$5), and the internal - external spread of FU01 slightly strengthened to $2.5. The cracking spread of Singapore 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil continued to weaken, the 9 - 10 spread slightly rebounded to $3.75/ton, and the internal - external spread of LU11 oscillated around $8. [3][4] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly, reaching the highest level in the same period of history. Floating storage increased on a month - on - month basis. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high in the same period, and the arrivals rebounded this week. UAE's shipments rebounded significantly on a month - on - month basis, and net exports increased significantly. The divergence between the East and the West in high - sulfur fuel oil continued, and the current price difference has triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst is the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil is the strongest. It is expected that there will be a two - way regression in the future. [4] - This week, LU's weakening was realized, the spot price of the external MF0.5 slightly weakened, and the valuation was realized. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of LU quotas. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of the widening of the 380 EW spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term short positions in LU should be exited. [4] Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Name | 2025/08/07 | 2025/08/08 | 2025/08/11 | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 407.16 | 401.51 | 401.32 | 396.94 | 391.10 | -5.84 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 456.69 | 455.43 | 454.60 | 452.82 | 450.16 | -2.66 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.04 | -2.75 | -2.85 | -3.23 | -3.55 | -0.32 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 644.25 | 648.45 | 644.43 | 638.66 | 627.98 | -10.68 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 | -187.56 | -193.02 | -189.83 | -185.84 | -177.82 | 8.02 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.56 | 22.94 | 22.30 | 22.10 | 21.18 | -0.92 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSF M1 | 49.53 | 53.92 | 53.28 | 55.88 | 59.06 | 3.18 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Name | 2025/08/07 | 2025/08/08 | 2025/08/11 | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 409.81 | 407.04 | 397.66 | 401.22 | 392.60 | -8.62 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 419.56 | 416.29 | 407.16 | 411.88 | 404.10 | -7.78 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 488.48 | 484.34 | 481.62 | 484.51 | 476.91 | -7.60 | | Singapore GO M1 | 84.71 | 84.89 | 83.94 | 85.26 | 82.98 | -2.28 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -1.83 | -1.67 | -2.87 | -3.02 | -3.31 | -0.29 | | Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 | -138.37 | -143.85 | -139.54 | -146.41 | -137.14 | 9.27 | [1][6] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Name | 2025/08/07 | 2025/08/08 | 2025/08/11 | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 402.93 | 403.56 | 391.73 | 396.64 | 388.41 | -8.23 | | FOB VLSFO | 488.15 | 487.97 | 481.67 | 483.55 | 475.21 | -8.34 | | 380 Basis | -5.35 | -4.75 | -4.80 | -3.95 | -4.05 | -0.10 | | High - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | | Low - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 9.9 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 0.6 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Name | 2025/08/07 | 2025/08/08 | 2025/08/11 | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2838 | 2797 | 2781 | 2800 | 2772 | -28 | | FU 05 | 2799 | 2757 | 2747 | 2770 | 2751 | -19 | | FU 09 | 2826 | 2766 | 2760 | 2770 | 2730 | -40 | | FU 01 - 05 | 39 | 40 | 34 | 30 | 21 | -9 | | FU 05 - 09 | -27 | -9 | -13 | 0 | 21 | 21 | | FU 09 - 01 | -12 | -31 | -21 | -30 | -42 | -12 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Name | 2025/08/07 | 2025/08/08 | 2025/08/11 | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3463 | 3418 | 3418 | 3457 | 3430 | -27 | | LU 05 | 3416 | 3382 | 3392 | 3417 | 3394 | -23 | | LU 09 | 3510 | 3432 | 3450 | 3489 | 3442 | -47 | | LU 01 - 05 | 47 | 36 | 26 | 40 | 36 | -4 | | LU 05 - 09 | -94 | -50 | -58 | -72 | -48 | 24 | | LU 09 - 01 | 47 | 14 | 32 | 32 | 12 | -20 | [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 14, 2025. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79,510 (domestic) and 9,763 (LME) with a ratio of 8.11; March price is 79,380 (domestic) and 9,842 (LME) with a ratio of 8.05. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.16, and the profit is - 39.06. Spot export profit is 42.08 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,560 (domestic) and 2,840 (LME) with a ratio of 7.95; March price is 22,640 (domestic) and 2,841 (LME) with a ratio of 5.94. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.65, and the profit is - 1,994.05 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,760 (domestic) and 2,624 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91; March price is 20,765 (domestic) and 2,629 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.48, and the profit is - 1,492.93 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 121,750 (domestic) and 15,099 (LME) with a ratio of 8.06. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25, and the profit is - 1,531.68 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,725 (domestic) and 1,974 (LME) with a ratio of 8.48; March price is 16,940 (domestic) and 2,017 (LME) with a ratio of 11.21. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.85, and the profit is - 719.66 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are 370, 370, 390, and 410 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 497, 892, 1296, and 1700 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are 0, 40, 40, and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are 35, 10, - 35, and - 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 446, and 562 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are 30, 40, 60, and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 315, 421, and 526 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are - 20, 110, 310, and 600 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1250, and the theoretical spread is 5593 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are - 430 and - 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 23 and 517 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are 40 and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 80 and 211 (also mentioned 78 and 207) [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads of current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are 175 and 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 105 and 217 [4]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - For cross - variety ratios on August 14, 2025: Copper/Zinc (Shanghai "continuous three") is 3.51, Copper/Aluminum is 3.82, Copper/Lead is 4.69, Aluminum/Zinc is 0.92, Aluminum/Lead is 1.23, Lead/Zinc is 0.75; LME (continuous three) ratios are 3.47, 3.75, 4.93, 0.92, 1.32, and 0.70 respectively [5].

0 品用H -100 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 江浙织机负荷指数 ll ◆ 2019 ● 2020 ↓ ● 2022 ● 2023 100 _ � 2024 ● 2025 80 60 40 ） 脂点资1孔 20 数据来源：中国化纤信息网，永安源点整理 0 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 唱片图片 POY 现金流 音紧像胶呈报 图1 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/14 P 不 A = 点击 POY 1 仓单+有 石脑油 PX CFR |PTA内盘现 PTA平衡 PTA加 PTA负 石脑油裂 聚酯毛利 50D/4 TA基美 日期 原油 PX加工美 产销 工差 效预报 日本 台湾 न्ह 解价差 荷 负荷 8F rest 2025/0 66.4 571 840 4690 6665 84.07 269.0 101 2 80.6 74.7 33459 -19 0.40 8/07 2025/0 66.6 571 831 4670 6660 82.40 260.0 131 21 78.3 74.7 33459 -18 0.35 8 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Scrap Steel Morning Report - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center Key Points Steel Prices - The scrap steel prices in different regions from August 7 - 13, 2025 show fluctuations. For example, in the East China region, the price increased from 2237 on August 7 to 2258 on August 13. In the Central region, there was a significant increase, with a reported '11' in the '环比 SOURCE PO' row, likely indicating a key change [2]. - The price trends of Shagang Heavy Three (tax - included) and Zhenjiang Hongtai Sheared Material (tax - excluded) from 2022 - 2025 are presented in graphs, showing a general downward trend over the years [3][5]. Consumption and Inventory - The daily consumption of long - flow and short - flow processes from 2022 - 2025 is shown in graphs. The long - flow daily consumption and short - flow daily consumption in 2025 seem to have different trends compared to previous years [6][10]. - The arrival of scrap steel at 147 steel mills from 2019 - 2025 shows a downward trend over the years. The steel mill scrap steel inventory and scrap steel social inventory from 2022 - 2025 are also presented, with possible trends of change [7][8][9][11]. Profit and Spread - The graphs show the East China screw - scrap price difference and Jiangsu electric furnace rebar profit from 2022 - 2025, which can reflect the profit situation and price relationship in the steel market [11].

中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 694.0 4.0 21.0 61.0 -156.0 25省终端可用天数 20.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.9 2.4 秦皇岛5000 630.0 3.0 19.0 60.0 -120.0 25省终端供煤 613.6 -8.1 5.0 -26.5 -9.3 广州港5500 760.0 0.0 10.0 40.0 -155.0 北方港库存 2363.0 -13.0 -123.0 -341.0 -123.5 鄂尔多斯5500 485.0 5.0 25.0 70.0 -145.0 北方锚地船舶 75.0 0.0 14.0 -18.0 16.0 大同5500 555.0 0.0 15.0 75.0 -135.0 北方港调入量 138.7 -6.1 14.1 -26.1 -8.1 榆林6000 612.0 10.0 20.0 45.0 -200.0 北方港吞吐量 153.6 14.8 0.9 9.8 14.1 榆林 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Report author: Research Center's Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Data Summary - Corn prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, and Shekou remained stable, while prices in Weifang decreased by 6 yuan. The basis decreased by 19 yuan, trade profit decreased by 5 yuan, and import profit increased by 41 yuan [3]. - Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable, the basis decreased by 6 yuan, and processing profit increased by 10 yuan [3]. Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the market atmosphere has eased due to reserve auctions, and new - season corn is about to be listed, leading to a slight increase in market circulation and a slight decline in prices. In the long term, if the import profit space persists, it may increase forward import orders, and the supply increase after the new - season corn is listed may put downward pressure on prices [4]. - Starch: In the short term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices, and the inventory remains high, so the market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [4]. Group 3: Sugar Data Summary - The spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming increased by 20 yuan, 10 yuan, and 40 yuan respectively. The basis decreased by 29 yuan, and the import profit increased by 50 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 324 [7]. Core Views - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, but due to lower - than - expected yields, there may be a corrective rebound in raw sugar prices. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar follows raw sugar, and the large - scale arrival of imported sugar will put pressure on the market [7]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Data Summary - The price of 3128 cotton increased by 100 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 82. The price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 50 yuan, and the import profit increased by 58 yuan. The 32S spinning profit decreased by 55 yuan [8]. Core Views - Cotton has entered a consolidation phase. If there are no major macro - risks, the low in April can be regarded as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [8]. Group 5: Eggs Data Summary - Egg prices in Hubei increased by 0.03 yuan, and the basis increased by 10 yuan. The price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.05 yuan, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.10 yuan, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.01 yuan [9]. Core Views - Egg prices rebounded in mid - July due to supply and demand factors, then corrected. From mid - August, demand is expected to pick up, but high inventory may limit the rebound height. Attention should be paid to disease risks and vegetable price fluctuations [9]. Group 6: Apples Data Summary - The spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, and the national inventory decreased by 17,000 tons, with Shandong and Shaanxi inventories decreasing by 20,000 tons. The 1 - month basis decreased by 17 yuan, the 5 - month basis decreased by 20 yuan [10][11]. Core Views - The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The national output is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is the lowest in the past five years. The spot price is stable, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [11]. Group 7: Pigs Data Summary - Pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Anhui Hefei increased by 0.05 yuan, 0.05 yuan, and 0.15 yuan respectively. The basis increased by 235 yuan [11]. Core Views - The spot price rebounded over the weekend due to reduced supply in some areas, but demand has not improved significantly. There is still medium - term supply pressure, but there are also policy expectations in the long term. The futures market is driven by sentiment, and attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The spot price center has moved down, with the cheapest deliverable being South China civil LPG at 4380. The PG futures market is running weakly. The basis has strengthened to 606 (+161). The inter - monthly reverse spread has continued to strengthen, with the September - October spread at - 478 (-39). The registered warrants have increased to 10179 lots (+420). The international market fundamentals are loose, with FEI and CP fluctuating and MB weakening. The North Asian - Middle East oil - gas price ratio has declined, and the North American oil - gas price ratio has slightly increased. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly. The US - Asia arbitrage window has opened. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and the Middle East to the Far East have increased. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has increased but is expected to decline. The FEI - MOPJ spread has significantly narrowed. The naphtha crack spread has strengthened. The PDH spot profit has weakened, while the paper profit has continued to improve. The alkylation oil production gross profit has decreased. The MTBE gas - fractionation etherification gross profit has slightly increased, and the isomerization etherification gross profit has slightly decreased. Fundamentally, the unloading volume has increased, port inventories have risen, factory inventories have decreased by 0.51%, and the commodity volume has increased by 0.57%. The PDH operating rate is 73.84% (+1.21pct). Overall, without fundamental drivers, the market is expected to fluctuate [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - From August 7 to August 13, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG have shown different degrees of change. The daily change on August 13 shows that South China LPG decreased by 10, Shandong LPG decreased by 20, while East China LPG remained unchanged. The prices of propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, and CP forecast contract price also had corresponding changes. The paper import profit decreased by 7, and the main basis decreased by 12 [1] Wednesday Situation - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was South China civil LPG at 4350. FEI and CP decreased. PP fluctuated weakly. The production profits of PP made from FEI and CP fluctuated, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The PG futures market fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 month spread was - 473 (+8). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly Viewpoints - The spot price center has moved down, and the PG futures market is running weakly. The basis has strengthened, and the inter - monthly reverse spread has continued to strengthen. The registered warrants have increased. The international market fundamentals are loose. The North Asian - Middle East oil - gas price ratio has declined, and the North American oil - gas price ratio has slightly increased. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly. The US - Asia arbitrage window has opened. The freight rates have increased. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has increased but is expected to decline. The FEI - MOPJ spread has significantly narrowed. The naphtha crack spread has strengthened. The PDH spot profit has weakened, while the paper profit has continued to improve. The alkylation oil production gross profit has decreased. The MTBE gas - fractionation etherification gross profit has slightly increased, and the isomerization etherification gross profit has slightly decreased. Fundamentally, the unloading volume has increased, port inventories have risen, factory inventories have decreased by 0.51%, and the commodity volume has increased by 0.57%. The PDH operating rate is 73.84% (+1.21pct) [1]

jis 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/8/14 | | | 指标 | 7/14 | 8/6 | 8/11 | 8/12 | 8/13 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11625 | 11505 | 11785 | 11825 | 11750 | -75 | 245 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 24429 | 28087 | 28088 | 26687 | 26557 | -130 | -1530 | | | 第1章 | 主力合约成交量 | 74986 | 51579 | 138315 | 60045 | 80181 | 20136 | 28602 | | | | | 9200 | | 10470 | | 10470 | 0 | 160 | | | | 仓単数量 | | 10310 | | 10470 | | | | | | | 虚实比 | 13.28 | 13.62 | 13.41 | 12.74 | 12.68 | 0 ...

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