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LPG早报-20251201
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 00:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PG futures prices have declined The basis is -43 (-57), and the spread between January and February contracts is 109 (-19) Domestic LPG prices for civil use have decreased The cheapest deliverable is the civil - use LPG in East China at 4315 (-49), and the price difference between propane and civil - use LPG has narrowed The number of warehouse receipts is 4561 (-54) [1] - The paper prices in the overseas market have decreased, while the spread between contracts has strengthened The ratio of oil and gas prices in North Asia and North America has changed little The spread between domestic PG and CP has reached 126 (-2); the spread between PG and FEI has reached 114 (+3) The discounts for East China's arrival, North America's and AFEI's departure have remained stable The supply of Middle - Eastern goods is tight, with a discount of 35 USD (+13) Freight rates have slightly decreased The spread between FEI and MOPJ has narrowed to -55 (+11) [1] - The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong has slightly recovered The profit of alkylation units has slightly improved but remains poor The profit of MTBE production has fluctuated, and the export profit is still good The arrival volume has increased, the external release has decreased, the factory inventory has slightly accumulated, and the port inventory has increased The PDH operating rate is 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week [1] - Overall, the chemical industry in China is relatively strong, and the civil demand has increased, but more arrivals are expected in December The Middle - Eastern supply is tight, but the market may tend to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches Attention should also be paid to weather and oil price conditions [1] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Friday, for civil - use LPG, the price in East China is 4323 (+13), in Shandong is 4460 (+10), and in South China is 4360 (+25) The price of ether - post - carbon - four is 4490 (+10) The lowest delivery location is East China, with a basis of -43 (-57), and the spread between January and February contracts is 109 (-19) FEI is 537 (+10) USD/ton The official CP prices for December have been released, with propane and butane at 495/485 (+20/+25) [1] Weekly Views - The PG futures prices have declined, with a decrease in the basis and the spread between January and February contracts The domestic civil - use LPG prices have dropped, the cheapest deliverable has decreased in price, and the propane - civil LPG price difference has shrunk The number of warehouse receipts has decreased [1] - Overseas paper prices have fallen, contract spreads have strengthened, and the oil - gas price ratio in North Asia and North America has changed little The spreads of domestic PG - CP and PG - FEI have changed, and the discounts in different regions have different trends The freight rates have slightly decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed [1] - The profits of some chemical production processes have shown different trends, with the arrival volume increasing, external release decreasing, and inventory accumulating in factories and ports The PDH operating rate has decreased, and a PDH unit is expected to restart next week [1] - The domestic chemical industry is relatively stable, civil demand has increased, but more arrivals are expected in December The Middle - Eastern supply is tight, and the market may wait and see before the CP official price announcement Attention should also be paid to weather and oil prices [1]
农产品早报-20251201
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 00:57
玉米:本周,现货市场依旧维持紧张的氛围,农户销售进度加快,但是市场供应依旧短缺,粮源主要被贸易商囤积。短期看,供应保持低位与 下游企业补库需求的双重驱动下,玉米价格仍将保持强劲势头。值得关注的是,贸易商屯粮待涨,一定程度上延缓了售粮压力的集中释放,后 续关注产区粮源供应变化和港库库存的累积状况。中长期来看,本年度玉米市场供需格局仍维持偏紧态势,种植成本仍将对价格形成强支撑, 预计在农户售粮压力逐步释放后,现货价格有望开启新一轮上涨周期。 | 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/01 | 玉米/淀粉 | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/24 2070 | 2200 2200 | 2380 | -20 | 30 244 | 2700 | 2850 | 170 | -1 | | 2025/11/25 2070 | 22 ...
废钢早报-20251201
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 00:52
废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/01 华东 स्क 中部 日期 华南 2025/11/245 | 2183 2016 2200 2263 源点 | 2025/11/24 | 2183 | 2263 | 2016 | 2200 | 2225 | 2088 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/25 | 2183 | 2263 | 2015 | 2206 | 2225 | 2088 | | 2025/11/26 | 2183 | 2263 | 2015 | 2209 | 2225 | 2088 | | 2025/11/27 | 2183 | 2262 | 2015 | 2209 | 2224 | 2089 | | 2025/11/28 | 2183 | 2263 | 2017 | 2210 | 2225 | 2088 | | 环比 SOURCE PO | | | 2 | | | -1 | 沙钢重三价格 (含税) ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 4,200元/吨 3,900 3,600 3,300 3,00 ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20251201
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 00:52
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest prices, profit margins, and market conditions of glass and soda ash in different regions, including price changes, production and sales, and inventory trends. 3. Summary by Category Glass - **Price Information**: From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the prices of 5mm glass in various regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 1044.0 to 1061.0, and the price of FG05 contract rose from 1141.0 to 1170.0 [1]. - **Profit Margin**: The profit margins of glass production using different energy sources also changed. The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased from 78.5 to 112.7, while the profit of South China natural gas - fired glass remained at - 188.1 [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The production and sales of glass factories in Shahe have recently strengthened, but the sales of traders are average. In Hubei, the transaction of factories has improved, but the mid - stream transaction has weakened. The production and sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China are 162, 162, 111, and 116 respectively [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Information**: From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the prices of heavy soda ash in different regions changed. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1140.0 to 1160.0, and the price of SA01 contract rose from 1170.0 to 1177.0 [1]. - **Profit Margin**: The profit margins of soda ash production using different methods also changed. The profit of North China ammonia - soda method increased from - 338.4 to - 297.0, while the profit of North China combined - soda method changed from - 445.6 to - 448.5 [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei's delivery warehouses is around 1130, and the price delivered to Shahe is around 1150. The inventory of the mid - upstream of the soda ash industry continues to decline [1].
合成橡胶早报-20251201
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 00:51
Report Overview - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Not provided in the content 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Information - BR主力合约(12)价格11月28日为10415,日度变化15,周度变化20;持仓量52021,日度变化 -6808,周度变化 -18302;成交量97141,日度变化14659,周度变化 -34014;仓单数量15540,日度变化90,周度变化3040;虚实比16.74,日度变化 -2,周度变化 -11 [4] - 顺丁基差35,日度变化35,周度变化 -70;丁本县差485,日度变化 -15,周度变化 -170;12 - 01为 -30,日度变化 -30;01 - 02为 -5,日度变化 -10,周度变化 -25;RU - BR为4995,日度变化115,周度变化70;NR - BR为1860,周度变化 -20 [4] Spot Information - 山东市场价10450,日度变化50,周度变化 -50;传化市场价10350,日度变化20,周度变化0;齐鲁出厂价10400,日度变化0,周度变化 -300;CFR东北亚1325,日度变化0,周度变化 -25;CFR东南亚1600,日度变化0,周度变化 -40 [4] Profit Information - 现货加工利润881,日度变化25,周度变化 -101;进口利润 -648,周度变化197;出口利润1584,日度变化 -52,周度变化 -286 [4] BD (Butadiene) Spot Information - 山东市场价7225,日度变化25,周度变化50;江苏市场价7000,日度变化0,周度变化0;扬子出厂价7100,日度变化0,周度变化 -100;CFR中国820,日度变化0,周度变化50 [4] Profit Information - 乙烯裂解利润 -63到 N/A;碳四抽提利润911到 N/A;丁烯氧化脱氢利润 -1814,日度变化0,周度变化0;进口利润294,日度变化5,周度变化 -374;出口利润 -933,日度变化350,周度变化 -804 [4] Production Profit - 丁苯生产利润1363,日度变化0,周度变化 -50;ABS生产利润 -369,日度变化 -20,周度变化 -67;SBS生产利润 -302,日度变化0,周度变化40 [4]
沥青早报-20251201
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 00:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - On November 28, the Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 44, with a daily change of -9; the East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) was 54, down 29 from the previous day; the South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) was -16, a decrease of 49 [3] - The 12 - 01 spread was -18, up 4; the 12 - 03 spread was -48, up 3; the 01 - 02 spread was -7, down 2 [3] 3.2 Futures Contract Information - The price of the BU main contract (01) on November 28 was 2996, down 11 from the previous day [3] - The trading volume was 587,546, an increase of 211,118, or 23%; the open interest was 407,598, a decrease of 6,644, or 6% [3] - The combined order quantity remained at 4,690 [3] 3.3 Spot Prices - On November 28, the price of Brent crude oil was 63.3, an increase of 0.2 [3] - The price of Jingbo was 3000, unchanged; Hongrun was 2960, down 20; Zhenjiang Warehouse was 3050, down 40; Foshan Warehouse was 2980, down 60 [3] 3.4 Profits - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit on November 28 was 155, a decrease of 25; the comprehensive profit of Ma Rui - type refineries was 749, down 22 [3]
永安期货铁合金早报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:32
价格 铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5100 5120 | 0 0 | -50 -80 | 5400 5470 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5390 5380 | -26 -12 | -56 -30 | | 硅铁自然块 | | | | | | | | | | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5150 | 0 | -50 | 5480 | 05合约 | 5344 | -32 | -56 | | | 陕西#72 | 5080 | 0 | -50 | 5380 | 09合约 | 5430 | -38 | -66 | | | 陕西#75 | 5700 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 10 | 26 | 6 | | 硅铁合格块 | ...
永安期货焦煤日报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:32
焦煤日报 2025/11/28 研究中心黑色团队 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1505.00 | -140.00 | -140.00 | -70.00 | -3.53% Peak Downs | 214.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 4.80 | -1.50 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 990.00 | -10.00 | -7.00 | -180.00 | -4.81% Goonyella | 213.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 3.80 | -2.00 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1500.00 | 0.00 | -50.00 | 30.00 | -4.46% 盘面05 | 1170.00 | 2.50 | -23.50 | -199.00 | -9.55% | | 安泽主焦 | 1580.00 | 0.00 | -80.00 | -20.00 ...
永安期货有色早报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:32
有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/28 铜 : 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/11/21 100 2233 115035 49790 -632.80 546.36 34.0 50.0 1.06 155025 6625 2025/11/24 90 2352 115035 43816 -1067.61 115.73 34.0 50.0 24.88 155750 5525 2025/11/25 90 2625 115035 40965 -787.48 156.46 32.0 48.0 9.52 156575 5625 2025/11/26 95 2695 115035 39825 -712.75 242.94 32.0 48.0 8.83 156500 6050 2025/11/27 100 2744 115035 35873 -1077.91 56.44 32.0 48.0 16.56 157175 6075 变化 5 49 0 -39 ...
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views Methanol - The current situation remains poor, with Iranian plant shutdowns slower than expected. November is expected to see high imports, and it is difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland area. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it has no impact on profits. [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous period. Recently, the domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and the US quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants. [6] PP (Polypropylene) - The inventory of the two major oil companies (upstream) and the middle - stream is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The production scheduling of drawn products is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level. [6] PVC - The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally declining, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recently, near - term export orders have declined slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the accumulation of static inventory contradictions is slow, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates. [6] 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 801 | 2003 | 1985 | 2350 | 2350 | 2340 | 2585 | 234 | 317 | - 25 | - 20 | - | | 2025/11/24 | 801 | 2053 | 2028 | 2360 | 2372 | 2340 | 2588 | 237 | 317 | 13 | - 20 | - | | 2025/11/25 | 801 | 2057 | 2030 | 2378 | 2412 | 2385 | 2588 | 240 | 317 | - 16 | - 15 | - | | 2025/11/26 | 801 | 2088 | 2048 | 2408 | 2415 | 2390 | 2590 | 243 | 317 | - 16 | - 5 | - | | 2025/11/27 | 801 | 2103 | 2073 | 2410 | 2410 | 2390 | 2590 | - | - | - | - 11 | - | |日度变化|0|15|25|2| - 5|0|0| - | - | - | - 6| - | [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 730 | 6750 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 764 | 14 | 6770 | - 20 | 69 | 11835 | | 2025/11/24 | 730 | 6760 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 764 | 17 | 6793 | - 20 | - | 11721 | | 2025/11/25 | 730 | 6740 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 785 | 35 | 6762 | - 50 | - | 11701 | | 2025/11/26 | 730 | 6700 | 6975 | 8850 | 7050 | 795 | - | 85 | 6707 | - 30 | - | 11701 | | 2025/11/27 | - | - | 6925 | 8800 | 7000 | - | - | - | 6699 | - 20 | - | 11701 | |日度变化| - | - | - 50 | - 50 | - 50 | - | - | - | - 8 | 10 | - | 0 | [6] PP (Polypropylene) | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 5900 | 695 | 6305 | 6265 | 6180 | 6766 | 765 | 805 | - 5 | 6357 | - 80 | 69 | 15733 | | 2025/11/24 | 5900 | 695 | 6285 | 6255 | 6160 | 6754 | 765 | 805 | - 4 | 6372 | - 80 | - | 15733 | | 2025/11/25 | 5920 | 695 | 6270 | 6248 | 6160 | 6754 | 765 | 805 | - 5 | 6317 | - 100 | - | 15668 | | 2025/11/26 | 6050 | 695 | 6250 | 6213 | 6150 | 6744 | - | - | - | 6265 | - 70 | - | 15518 | | 2025/11/27 | 6050 | - | 6205 | 6210 | 6150 | 6728 | - | - | - | 6295 | - 70 | - | 15518 | |日度变化|0| - | - 45 | - 3 | 0 | - 16 | - | - | - | 30 | 0 | - | 0 | [6] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价(CFR中国)|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 2400 | 792 | 4490 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 426 | - | - | - 90 | | 2025/11/24 | 2450 | 777 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 423 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/25 | 2450 | 777 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 415 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/26 | 2450 | 777 | 4520 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | - | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/27 | 2450 | 767 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | - | - | - | - | - 70 | |日度变化|0| - 10 | 10 | - | - | 0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | [6]