Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [1] - In terms of fundamentals, in the second week of August (week33), MSK performed well, OA was average, and PA was poor; cargo volume in week34 significantly declined. EMC cancelled its independent ship in week35 this week, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39. The capacity reduction situation was not ideal, with a slight decline but still at a high level. The average weekly capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 are 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and after including all TRN as sailing suspensions, they are 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU [1] - From the perspective of the futures market, the current October contract has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the futures price further down. The December contract is a peak - season contract with certain flexibility, and continuous position - shifting and contract - changing support it. However, the overall future trend is downward, and there is still some room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For EC2508, the closing price is 2083.0, with a change of 0.05%, a basis of 152.5, a trading volume of 329, an open interest of 2629, and a change in open interest of - 227 [1] - For EC2510, the closing price is 1333.1, with a change of - 5.96%, a basis of 902.4, a trading volume of 66391, an open interest of 60740, and a change in open interest of 4786 [1] - For EC2512, the closing price is 1700.1, with a change of - 2.41%, a basis of 535.4, a trading volume of 8332, an open interest of 11515, and a change in open interest of 103 [1] - For EC2602, the closing price is 1488.0, with a change of - 2.62%, a basis of 747.5, a trading volume of 1870, an open interest of 4459, and a change in open interest of 270 [1] - For EC2604, the closing price is 1328.6, with a change of - 1.59%, a basis of 906.9, a trading volume of 1257, an open interest of 5551, and a change in open interest of 125 [1] - For EC2606, the closing price is 1473.0, with a change of - 0.61%, a basis of 762.5, a trading volume of 126, an open interest of 828, and a change in open interest of 61 [1] Month - to - Month Spread Information - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 is 749.9, with a day - on - day change of 85.5 and a week - on - week change of 97.6 [1] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 is - 367.0, with a day - on - day change of - 42.6 and a week - on - week change of - 24.2 [1] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 is 212.1, with a day - on - day change of - 1.9 and a week - on - week change of - 4.5 [1] Shipping Index Information - The SCFI (European Line) index on August 11, 2025, is 2235.48 points, with a month - on - month change of - 2.71% and a year - on - year change of - 4.39% [1] - The European Line freight rate on August 8, 2025, is 1961 US dollars/TEU, with a month - on - month change of - 1.87% [1] - The CCFI index on August 8, 2025, is 1799.05 points, with a month - on - month change of 0.53% and a year - on - year change of 0.13% [1] - The NCFI index on August 8, 2025, is 1257.71 points, with a month - on - month change of - 8.37% and a year - on - year change of - 3.3% [1] Recent European Line Quotation Information - In week34, shipping companies' prices decreased by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). Among them, the PA Alliance is 2700 US dollars, MSK is 2600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance is 2900 - 3000 US dollars [2] - In week35, the average shipping company's quotation is 2700 US dollars (1850 points). On Monday, MSK opened bookings at 2200 US dollars; HPL reduced the price by 400 to 2435 US dollars; on Wednesday, EMC reduced the price by 200 to 2934 US dollars [2] Related News - On August 12, the Israeli military stated that its operation in Gaza had entered a "new stage" [3] - On August 13, China emphasized maintaining the safety of the Red Sea shipping route and promoting the political settlement of the Yemen issue [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the反复 domestic macro - sentiment. The overall driving force is downward, and the valuation still has room. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the 10 contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies[2][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Contract Information - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: For EC2508, the closing price was 2083.0 with a 0.05% increase; EC2510 closed at 1333.1 with a - 5.96% decrease; EC2512 at 1700.1 with a - 2.41% decrease; EC2602 at 1488.0 with a - 2.62% decrease; EC2604 at 1328.6 with a - 1.59% decrease; EC2606 at 1473.0 with a - 0.61% decrease[2][18]. - **Futures Contract Volumes and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2510 was 66391, and its open interest was 60740 with an increase of 4786. Other contracts also had corresponding volume and open - interest data and changes[2][18]. - **Futures Contract Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, the spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 749.9, with a daily increase of 85.5 and a weekly increase of 97.6. The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 367.0, with a daily decrease of 42.6 and a weekly decrease of 24.2[2][18]. Index Information - **SCFI Index**: As of August 11, 2025, the SCFI index was 2235.48 points, a - 2.71% decrease from the previous period and a - 4.39% decrease from two periods ago[2][18]. - **CCFI Index**: On August 8, 2025, the CCFI index was 1799.05 points, a 0.53% increase from the previous period[2][18]. - **NCFI Index**: On August 8, 2025, the NCFI index was 1257.71 points, an - 8.37% decrease from the previous period[2][18]. Fundamental Information - **Receiving Situation**: In week 33 of August, the receiving situation of each alliance was different, with MSK being good, OA being average, and PA being poor. In week 34, the receiving situation significantly weakened[2][18]. - **Shipping Capacity**: EMC cancelled its independent ship in week 35, and OA added a sail - off in week 39. The shipping capacity decreased slightly but remained high. The average weekly shipping capacity in August and September (tentatively) 2025 was 32.7, 32.1, and 28.7 million TEU respectively[2][18]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 34**: Each shipping company's prices dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). The PA alliance's price was 2700 US dollars, MSK's was 2600 US dollars, and the OA alliance's was 2900 - 3000 US dollars[3][19]. - **Week 35**: The current average shipping company quotation is 2700 US dollars (1850 points)[3][19]. News - **Israeli Military**: On August 11, the Israeli military said that its operations in the Gaza Strip had entered a "new stage"[3][19]. - **Chinese Side**: On August 12, China emphasized the need to maintain the safety of the Red Sea shipping lanes and promote the political settlement of the Yemeni issue[3][19]. Message - related Information - MSK opened the cabin at 2200 US dollars. HPL reduced the price by 400 to 2435 US dollars. EMC reduced the price by 200 to 2934 US dollars[16][32].

Group 1: Introduction to Volatility Indices - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the implied volatility index of commodity options is weighted by the implied volatility of the two - tier options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility, a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference means the opposite [3] Group 2: Volatility Data Charts - There are charts showing the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and their differences (IV - HV) for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, silver, soybean meal, corn, etc [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile - Implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's implied volatility in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] - There are rankings of implied volatility quantiles and historical volatility quantiles for different varieties such as 300 - stock index, 50ETF, PTA, cotton, etc [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2] Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - Overall, the downstream copper demand and acceptance are supportive, the scrap substitution effect is also effective, and there are no substantial negatives in the overseas macro - level. So, the copper price is viewed positively, and attention can be paid to the internal - external reverse arbitrage positions in the remaining time of the third quarter [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable. In the low - inventory pattern, it can be held at low prices. Pay attention to the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage. In the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases, and the overseas supply is the main variable, so pay attention to the actual demand [2] - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. In the short - term, it shows an external - strong and internal - weak situation. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of the commodity sentiment. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to be held, and attention can be paid to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies. Opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be concerned [8] - The fundamentals of stainless steel generally remain weak. In the short - term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectations, and attention should be paid to the later policy trends [12] - The lead price declined this week. It is expected that battery factories will replenish their stocks next week, and the lead price center will rise [13] - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. In the short - term, there are both disturbances in domestic raw material supply and expectations of consumption decline, maintaining a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to short lightly at high prices [14] - In the short - term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon have turned to a balanced state in August. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial silicon capacity is still in a large surplus, and the price will mainly fluctuate at the cycle bottom [17] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the medium - to - long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved smoothly, the lithium carbonate capacity surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the price will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [19] Group 3: Summaries by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Performance**: In the first half of the week, the copper price was supported around 78,000 yuan. In the second half, with the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of overseas interest - rate cut expectations, and the low scrap - refined spread, the copper price was strong on Friday night, trying to break through 79,000 yuan [1] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot premium increased by 136, the warehouse receipt decreased by 3496, the spot import profit decreased by 123.88, and the three - month import profit decreased by 291.50 [1] Aluminum - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. Overseas demand declined significantly, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August [2] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 120 yuan, the domestic alumina price decreased by 1, the import alumina price decreased by 50, and the LME inventory increased by 1525 [1][2] Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the domestic TC has difficulty rising, and the import TC is rising slowly. In August, the smelting increment is further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand has some production resistance due to processing fees [5] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 60 yuan, the LME C - 3M increased by 3, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1075 [5] Nickel - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is generally weak, and the inventory of nickel plates at home and abroad remains stable [8] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the spot import income increased by 268.35, and the LME inventory decreased by 648 [8] Stainless Steel - **Supply and Demand**: Some steel mills have passive production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some inventory replenishment due to the macro - atmosphere. Costs remain stable, and inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly [12] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50 yuan, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil increased by 50 yuan, and the price of 430 cold - rolled coil increased by 100 yuan [12] Lead - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recycled lead has low start - up. On the demand side, the battery inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectations have fallen. There is expected to be inventory accumulation in July [13] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot premium remained unchanged, the spot import income decreased by 86.27, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [13] Tin - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the domestic smelting output may decline slightly in July - August. Overseas, there are signals of复产, but the specific quantity needs to be observed. On the demand side, the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline [14] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot import income increased by 1853.59, the LME C - 3M decreased by 13, and the LME inventory increased by 15 [14] Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply and demand have turned to balance in August. In the medium - to - long - term, the capacity is in large surplus [17] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 240, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 240, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 43 [15][17] Lithium Carbonate - **Supply and Demand**: There are short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. In the long - term, the capacity is still in surplus [19] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3000 yuan, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3000 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 850 [19]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/14 观点 本周跟随煤炭波动，甲醇自身基本面变化不大，仍在累库途中，进口多，估值目前正常，短期偏向震荡。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司授权，不得随意转 载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担 任何责任。 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 ...

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3364.40, with a change of 21.10 [1][2] - London Silver's latest price is 38.61, with a change of 0.92 [1][2] - London Platinum's latest price is 1336.00, with a change of 14.00 [1][2] - London Palladium's latest price is 1142.00, with a change of -3.00 [1][2] - WTI Crude's latest price is 62.65, with a change of -0.52 [1][2] - LME Copper's latest price is 9842.00, with a change of 74.00 [1][2] - The latest dollar index is 97.79, with a change of -0.28 [2] - The latest euro - to - dollar exchange rate is 1.17, with a change of 0.00 [2] - The latest pound - to - dollar exchange rate is 1.36, with a change of 0.01 [2] - The latest dollar - to - yen exchange rate is 147.37, with a change of -0.49 [2] Trading Data - The latest inventory of SHFE silver is 1135.10, with a change of -16.11 [3] - The latest gold ETF holding is 964.22, with no change [3] - The latest silver ETF holding is 15099.56, with no change [3] - The latest deferred fee payment direction of SGE gold is 1, with a change of -1.00 [3] - The latest deferred fee payment direction of SGE silver is 1, with no change [3]

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on August 13, 2025, was 5302.00 [3] - The conversion to US dollars was 645.26, with a daily increase of 0.72188% [3] - The basis of Shandong Yinxing was 558, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing was 598 [3] Group 2: Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion was 51.55, while that of Lion was -392.78, and that of Chilean Yinxing was -51.65 [4] - The exchange rate on the previous day was 7.18 [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Trends - From August 7 to August 13, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged [4] - The prices of cultural paper, packaging paper, and household paper also remained unchanged during this period [4] - The profit margins of cultural paper, packaging paper, and household paper showed varying degrees of decline [4] Group 4: Price Spreads - On August 13, 2025, the price spread between softwood and hardwood pulp was 1670.00, the spread between softwood and natural pulp was 460, the spread between softwood and chemimechanical pulp was 2035, and the spread between softwood pulp and waste paper was 4284 [4]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/14 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/08/07 | 63.88 | 66.43 | 69.13 | - | 0.53 | -2.55 | 0.55 | 207.75 | 20.83 | 226.68 | 28.78 | | 2025/08/08 | 63.88 | 66.59 | 69.22 | 0.30 | 0.67 | -2.71 | 0.37 | 208.61 | 21.03 | 227.93 | 29.14 | | 2025/08/11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the performance data of various global asset markets on August 13, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 4.235 on August 13, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.056, a weekly change of 0.006, a monthly change of - 0.222, and a yearly change of 0.446 [3] - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Similar to the 10 - year bonds, yields of different countries had varying changes. The US 2 - year Treasury bond yield was 3.760 on August 13, 2025, with a latest change of 0.000, a weekly change of 0.070, a monthly change of - 0.150, and a yearly change of - 0.400 [3] Exchange Rates - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The dollar's exchange rates against currencies like the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, etc., had different changes. For example, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.398 on August 13, 2025, with a latest change of 0.16%, a weekly change of - 1.21%, a monthly change of - 3.07%, and a yearly change of - 5.68% [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore, off - shore, and middle - price of the renminbi, as well as the 12 - month NDF, also had their respective values and changes on August 13, 2025 [3] Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: Stock indices of major economies such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq showed positive changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the Dow Jones index was 6466.580 on August 13, 2025, with a latest change of 0.32%, a weekly change of 1.92%, a monthly change of 3.24%, and a yearly change of 24.69% [3] - **Other Stock Indices**: Including the Russian index, Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, etc., also had their own performance and changes [3] Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices of emerging economies and developed economies had different values and changes on August 13, 2025. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index was 3467.280, with a latest change of 0.46%, a weekly change of 0.29%, a monthly change of 2.08%, and a yearly change of 4.65% [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 had their closing prices, price changes, and other data. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4176.58 on August 13, 2025, with a price change of 0.79% [5] - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and risk premiums of different indices were presented, along with their changes [5] - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in different markets were given [5] - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and their changes of different markets were provided [5] - **Main Contract Premiums and Discounts**: The basis and basis spreads of IF, IH, and IC were shown [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 had their closing prices and price changes on August 13, 2025 [6] - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M had their rates and daily changes [6]

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/08/07 | 3290 | 3350 | 3420 | 3320 | 3380 | 3420 | | 2025/08/08 | 3290 | 3330 | 3420 | 3320 | 3380 | 3390 | | 2025/08/11 | 3340 | 3380 | 3420 | 3330 | 3360 | 3430 | | 2025/08/12 | 3340 | 3390 | 3430 | 3340 | 3420 | 3440 | | 2025/08/13 | 3310 | 3340 | 3430 | 3280 | 3420 | 3400 | | 变化 | -30 | -50 | 0 | -60 | 0 | -40 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津 ...