铁合金早报 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/ ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market was oscillating on Thursday, waiting for new drivers [3] - The EC2512 contract is neutrally valued and will gradually move towards the delivery logic, with a significant decrease in open interest [3] - The EC2602 contract is expected to mainly follow the spot trend in the short - term. Before the peak season in December is realized, it's hard for the market to believe January is still a peak season. If the peak season is gradually realized later, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential [3] - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies and is more likely to oscillate in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1775.7, with a 0.70% increase, a basis of - 418.0, a trading volume of 4067, an open interest of 8060, and an open interest change of - 1508 [2] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1631.0, with a 0.55% decrease, a basis of - 273.3, a trading volume of 32775, an open interest of 42029, and an open interest change of 1785 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1163.0, with a 0.03% increase, a basis of 194.7, a trading volume of 3097, an open interest of 16014, and an open interest change of 70 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1381.1, with a 0.07% decrease, a basis of - 23.4, a trading volume of 218, an open interest of 1575, and an open interest change of - 7 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1505.0, with a 1.00% increase, a basis of - 147.3, a trading volume of 92, an open interest of 1224, and an open interest change of 12 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1109.0, with a 0.09% decrease, a basis of 248.7, a trading volume of 382, an open interest of 2493, and an open interest change of - 27 [2] Month - spread Data - EC2512 - 2604: The previous day's month - spread was 612.7, with a daily - on - daily increase of 12.1 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 35.3 [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's month - spread was 144.7, with a daily - on - daily increase of 21.5 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 31.9 [2] - EC2602 - 2604: The previous day's month - spread was 468.0, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 9.4 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 3.4 [2] Index Data - SCFIS (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on 2025/11/17, the current value is 1357.67 points, with a - 9.78% change from the previous period and a 24.50% change from two periods ago [2] - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on 2025/11/14, the current value is 1417 dollars/TEU, with a 7.11% increase from the previous period and a - 1.56% change from two periods ago [2] - CCFI: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/11/14, the current value is 1403.64 points, with a 2.69% increase from the previous period and a 3.25% increase from two periods ago [2] - NCFI: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/11/14, the current value is 979.34 points, with a 7.42% increase from the previous period and a - 5.58% change from two periods ago [2] Recent Spot Situation of European Line - Week 48: Currently, MSK's opening rate is 2000 dollars, PA mainly follows the previous rate, OA has not adjusted the price yet, with an average of 2230 dollars (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures price) [3] - 12 - month price increase notices have been issued by MSK and MSC, and other shipping companies may issue them successively this week [3] - Week 49: The offline quotes are between 2200 - 2500 dollars. On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2500 dollars for the first week of December, in line with expectations. MSC reduced the price to 2465 dollars, and HMM reduced it to 2506 dollars [3] - Week 50: On Thursday, Maersk added an extra ship to the second week of December with a capacity of 13000 TEU [3] News - On 11/21, the Israeli Defense Minister said that the tunnel network of Hamas in Gaza must be destroyed, and the Israeli army is working continuously to complete this task [3] - On 11/21, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran said that the conflict could break out at any time and has raised the combat readiness level [3] - On 11/21, the US Treasury Department strengthened sanctions on the oil network supporting the Iranian army [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices remained volatile. News of potential Russia - Ukraine negotiations on Thursday and the suspension of oil exports from Russia's Novorossiysk port due to an attack on Friday caused intraday fluctuations. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of oversupply and increased uncertainty regarding Russian sanctions risks. The US sanctions on Russia will take effect on November 21, and short - term statements from the US and Russia will affect market expectations. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased, while global oil slightly decreased. Due to high gasoline and diesel profits, recent refinery operations in Europe and the US have recovered, and the maintenance rate of Middle - Eastern refineries remains high. In the short term, the interruption of Russian ports supports the Dubai spread, but global supply pressure and OPEC's potential production increase plan limit the upside. In the short term, spreads and absolute prices will remain volatile, and the strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended for the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: From November 14 - 20, WTI decreased by $0.44 to $59.00, BRENT decreased by $0.13 to $63.38, and DUBAI increased by $0.01 to $64.67. The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by $0.07 to $0.58, and the WTI - BRENT spread decreased by $0.31 to -$4.38. Other related products also showed various changes [3]. - **Domestic Products**: From November 14 - 20, domestic gasoline decreased by 30 yuan to 7060 yuan, and domestic diesel decreased by 10 yuan to 6423 yuan. The domestic gasoline - BRT spread decreased by 24 yuan, and the domestic diesel - BRT spread decreased by 5 yuan [3]. - **Other Products**: From November 14 - 20, Japan's CFR naphtha decreased, Singapore's 380CST fuel oil increased, and HH natural gas increased. The spreads of these products also changed accordingly [3]. 3.2 Daily News - **US Government Policy**: The Trump administration is restructuring the Department of Energy, canceling the office focused on clean and renewable energy and creating a department for hydrocarbons and fusion energy [3]. - **Corporate Actions**: India's Reliance Industries will stop processing Russian oil at part of its Jamnagar refinery due to US sanctions [3]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard has elevated its combat readiness, and the Ukrainian military attacked Russia's Ryazan refinery [4]. 3.3 Inventory - **US Inventory**: In the week of November 07, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day to 2.816 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 211,000 barrels to 13.862 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, a 1.52% increase. The US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels, a 0.19% increase [5]. - **Other Regions' Inventory**: As of the week of November 12, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE increased by 3.204 million barrels to 21.181 million barrels. As of the week of November 08, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 thousand liters to 10,379,001 thousand liters. From November 7 - 13, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, with gasoline at 10.4149 million tons (down 1.52%) and diesel at 12.8156 million tons (down 0.63%) [5].

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/21 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1649.42 | 0.00 | 57.81 | 167.03 | -10.07% 高炉开工率 | 88.80 | | 0.99 | -1.53 | 1.06% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1900.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 165.00 | 7.95% 铁水日均产量 | 236.28 | | -0.60 | -3.62 | 0.20% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1825.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 165.00 | -9.20% 盘面05 | 1786 | -18.00 | -30.50 | -54.50 | -10.70% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1865.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 165.00 | -9.02% 盘面09 | 1850.5 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the documents Core Views - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream price - fixing volume rebounded significantly. The market has both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1]. - Overseas production halt news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, making it stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices increased. It may show a volatile trend in the short term [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The domestic and imported TC decreased further. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee has dropped significantly, but the smelter's profit is still acceptable. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, European demand is average and Middle - East demand has high growth. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. The export window has opened. The price may not fall deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 for the month - spread [5]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak. The price of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory at home and abroad continued to increase. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [6]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. The steel mill's production in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable, and the inventory remains at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [7]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply of recycled lead increased, and the social inventory accumulated. The demand for batteries may weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate within a narrow range next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [9]. - The center of tin prices rose this week. The supply has been marginally restored, but there are still uncertainties overseas. The demand is mainly rigid. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position in the non - ferrous metals portfolio [11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term and oscillate at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term. The supply and demand in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate is running strongly. The raw material supply is tight, the upstream inventory has decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient. The trading is light, and the basis has weakened slightly. In the long - term, the pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years if the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The downstream price - fixing volume rebounded significantly. The market has both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1]. Aluminum - Overseas production halt news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, making it stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices increased. It may show a volatile trend in the short term [2]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The domestic and imported TC decreased further. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee has dropped significantly, but the smelter's profit is still acceptable. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, European demand is average and Middle - East demand has high growth. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. The export window has opened. The price may not fall deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 for the month - spread [5]. Nickel - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak. The price of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory at home and abroad continued to increase. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [6]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. The steel mill's production in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable, and the inventory remains at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [7]. Lead - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply of recycled lead increased, and the social inventory accumulated. The demand for batteries may weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate within a narrow range next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - The center of tin prices rose this week. The supply has been marginally restored, but there are still uncertainties overseas. The demand is mainly rigid. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position in the non - ferrous metals portfolio [11]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term and oscillate at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term. The supply and demand in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is running strongly. The raw material supply is tight, the upstream inventory has decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient. The trading is light, and the basis has weakened slightly. In the long - term, the pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years if the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable [17].

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/21 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/11/14 | 3200 | 3170 | 3200 | 3210 | 3350 | 3260 | | 2025/11/17 | 3230 | 3240 | 3220 | 3270 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2025/11/18 | 3230 | 3250 | 3240 | 3290 | 3420 | 3310 | | 2025/11/19 | 3230 | 3210 | 3240 | 3290 | 3420 | 3310 | | 2025/11/20 | 3230 | 3190 | 3190 | 3240 | 3420 | 3280 | | 变化 | 0 | -20 | -50 | -50 | 0 | -30 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | ...

1. Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4090.60 with a change of -36.35 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 50.85 with a change of -1.35 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1557.00 with a change of 23.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1408.00 with a change of -3.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 59.44 with no change [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10759.00 with a change of 17.00 [1] - The latest US Dollar Index is 100.22 with a change of 0.09 [1] - The latest Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.15 with no change [1] - The latest British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.31 with no change [1] - The latest US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 157.46 with a change of 0.28 [1] - The latest yield of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.86 with no change [1] 2. Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 14367.02 with a change of -19.27 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory is 535.09 with a change of -12.60 [1] - Gold ETF holdings are 1039.43 with a change of -4.29 [1] - Silver ETF holdings are 15246.63 with a change of 19.75 [1] - SGE Silver inventory is 830.31 with no change [1] - The SGE Gold deferred - fee payment direction has no change of 0.00 [1] - The SGE Silver deferred - fee payment direction has a change of 1.00 [1]

| 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3931.05 | 4564.95 | 3008.29 | 3042.34 | 7061.95 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.40 | -0.51 | -0.40 | -1.12 | -0.85 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 14.14 | 12.03 | 32.17 | 25.98 | 18.06 | | 环比变化 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.27 | -0.41 | 0.09 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | 3.70 | 5.77 | -0.38 | -0.24 | 2.82 | | 环比变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | -0.04 | | 资金流向 | A股 | 主板 | 中小企业板 | 创业板 | 沪 ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/21 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 美国农业部：10月2日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增92.44万吨，符合预期 美国农业部（USDA）周四公布的出口销售报告显示，10月2日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增91.94万 吨，市场预估为净增60-160万吨。 当周，美国下一年度大豆出口销售净增0.5万吨。市场预估为净增0吨。 当周，美国大豆出口装船72.05万吨。 当周，美国当前市场年度大豆新销售96.98万吨，下一市场年度大豆新销售0.5万吨。 美国大豆市场年度为9月1日至次年8月31日。 美国农业部：民间出口商报告向中国出口销售462,000吨大豆 据美国农业部（USDA）网站11月20日消息，民间出口商报告向中国出口销售462,000吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付 运。 ITS：马来西亚11月1-20日棕榈油出口量环比减少20.5% 船货检验机构Intertek Testing Services（简称ITS）发布的数据显示，马来西亚11月1-20日棕榈油产品出口量为 831,005吨，较上月同期出口的1,044,784吨减少20.5%。 AmS ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - No information provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market Information - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 789, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 9; PB powder is 792, with -3 daily and 9 weekly changes; Mac powder is 784, -2 daily and 8 weekly. Their import profits are -8.02, -7.31, and 18.09 respectively [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Ba Hun is 831, with -3 daily and 13 weekly changes; Ba Coarse IOC6 is 769, -3 daily and -14 weekly; Ba Coarse SSFG is 774, -3 daily and -14 weekly. Ba Hun's import profit is 7.30 [1] - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian fine powder is 876, -4 daily and 1 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 732, -3 daily and 9 weekly; Karara fine powder is 878, -4 daily and 1 weekly; Roy Hill powder is 779, -3 daily and 9 weekly, with an import profit of 22.61; KUMBA powder is 851, -3 daily and 9 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 610, -3 daily and 3 weekly; Atlas powder is 722, -1 daily and 2 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 1014, -6 daily and 6 weekly [1] Futures Market Information - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 is 788.5, -3.0 daily and 16.0 weekly, with a monthly spread of -60.5; i2605 is 753.0, -2.0 daily and 7.5 weekly, with a monthly spread of 35.5; i2609 is 728.0, -2.0 daily and 5.0 weekly, with a monthly spread of 25.0 [1] - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 is 101.20, -0.07 daily and 1.52 weekly, with a monthly spread of -4.73; FE05 is 98.60, -0.13 daily and 1.21 weekly, with a monthly spread of 2.60; FE09 is 96.47, -0.13 daily and 1.09 weekly, with a monthly spread of 2.13 [1]