研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/28 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/10/21 | 2020 | 2130 | 2170 | 2310 | -14 | 40 195 | 2700 | 2800 | 226 | 112 | | 2025/10/22 | 2020 | 2130 | 2180 | 2300 | -3 | 30 185 | 2700 | 2800 | 229 | 112 | | 2025/10/23 | 2050 | 2110 | 2190 | 2290 | -30 | 30 176 | 2700 | 2800 | 205 | 112 | | 2025/10/24 | 2050 | 2110 | 2190 | 2280 | -23 | 20 142 | 2700 | 2800 ...

焦煤日报 2025/10/28 研究中心黑色团队 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 年变化 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 年变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1575.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 72.00 | 5.00% Peak Downs | 209.70 | 0.00 | 5.20 | 4.70 | -5.70 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1135.00 | 5.00 | 20.00 | 95.00 | -2.58% Goonyella | 209.70 | 0.00 | 5.20 | 4.20 | -5.70 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1470.00 | 0.00 | 50.00 | 120.00 | -12.50% 盘面05 | 1315.00 | -2.50 | 50.00 | 2.50 | -7.20% | | 安泽主焦 | 1600.00 | 0.00 | 50.00 | 100.00 | -7.51% 盘面09 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on October 28, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, ratios, equilibrium ratios, profits, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 28, 2025, the domestic spot price was 88210, LME spot price was 11036, with a ratio of 7.94; the domestic March price was 88360, LME March price was 11060, with a ratio of 7.98. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.07, and the profit was - 797.43 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22210, LME spot price was 3251, with a ratio of 6.83; the domestic March price was 22390, LME March price was 3039, with a ratio of 5.74. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.48, and the profit was - 5375.30 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21160, LME spot price was 2890, with a ratio of 7.32; the domestic March price was 21380, LME March price was 2887, with a ratio of 7.36. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, and the profit was - 2886.43 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 124400, LME spot price was 15155, with a ratio of 8.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, and the profit was - 1527.44 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17275, LME spot price was 1984, with a ratio of 8.70; the domestic March price was 17525, LME March price was 2018, with a ratio of 11.06. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.72, and the profit was - 49.75 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month were 670, 660, 680, and 610 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 541, 979, 1427, and 1874 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 50, 75, 110, and 120, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 335, 456, and 576 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 155, 175, 175, and 175, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 335, 453, and 571 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were - 115, - 110, - 120, and - 190, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 322, 432, and 541 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month were 540, 700, 870, and 1080 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 200, and the theoretical spread was 5928 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were - 485 and 185, and the theoretical spreads were 287 and 872 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 105 and 155, and the theoretical spreads were 153 and 302 [5]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 360 and 245, and the theoretical spreads were 194 and 309 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 28, 2025, for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios were 3.95, 4.13, 5.04, 0.95, 1.22, and 0.78 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios were 3.60, 3.82, 5.44, 0.94, 1.42, and 0.66 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent market has been strong due to shipping companies' additional sailings cancellations and good cargo receipts on multiple routes at the end of October. The current valuation of the December contract is high, but due to multiple expected price increase nodes and the upward drive during the long - term contract signing season, the logic of going long on dips for the December contract remains unchanged. There may be short - term downward disturbances, and attention should be paid to possible price cuts by shipping companies in early November. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, the February contract may have more upside potential with the arrival of the peak season, but there are also geopolitical fluctuations. The April contract maintains the view of shorting on rallies, but it may follow the near - term contracts and fluctuate strongly during the peak season from November to January and can be gradually short - positioned [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contract Information - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1137.8, up 0.15%, with a direct difference of 2.6, yesterday's trading volume was 817, yesterday's open interest was 4292, and open interest decreased by 526 [2][22]. - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1831.0, up 2.11%, with a direct difference of - 690.6, yesterday's trading volume was 35117, yesterday's open interest was 30249, and open interest increased by 1335 [2][22]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1601.0, up 1.20%, with a direct difference of - 460.6, yesterday's trading volume was 3971, yesterday's open interest was 11509, and open interest increased by 971 [2][22]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1179.6, up 0.67%, with a direct difference of - 39.2, yesterday's trading volume was 1726, yesterday's open interest was 14224, and open interest increased by 170 [2][22]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1397.9, up 1.68%, with a direct difference of - 257.5, yesterday's trading volume was 585, yesterday's open interest was 1377, and open interest decreased by 25 [2][22]. Month - to - Month Spread - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 693.2, the spread decreased by 36.2 compared to the previous day, and decreased by 111.3 compared to last Friday [2][22]. - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 230.0, the spread increased by 18.9 compared to the previous day, and increased by 70.0 compared to last Friday [2][22]. Spot Freight Index - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, as of October 24, 2025, it was 1246 US dollars/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period and 7.21% from two periods ago [2][22]. - CCFI: Updated weekly, as of October 24, 2025, it was 1293.12, up 1.99% from the previous period and down 1.49% from two periods ago [2][22]. - NCFI: Updated weekly, as of October 24, 2025, it was 822.3, up 2.38% from the previous period and 14.96% from two periods ago [2][22]. Recent European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the end of October and early November (Week 44 - 45). In Week 44, the offline quotes were PA 1400, GEMINI 1600, and OA 1800 US dollars. Shipping companies plan to increase prices in November, mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened bookings at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [3][23]. Relevant News - On October 27, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the US would no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on China. On October 26, the China - US economic and trade teams concluded a two - day negotiation in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. This was the fifth face - to - face negotiation between the two teams since May this year [4][24]. - On October 27, the Israeli government spokesman said that Israel would maintain full security control over the Gaza Strip [4][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the futures market has been strong due to shipping companies adding sailings and good cargo receipts on multiple routes at the end of October. The valuation of the December contract is currently high, but considering the upcoming price - increase announcements and the upward drive during the long - term contract signing season, the logic of going long on dips for the December contract remains unchanged. There may be short - term downward fluctuations, and attention should be paid to possible price cuts by shipping companies in early November. - Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, the February contract may have more upside potential with the arrival of the peak season, but geopolitical fluctuations also exist. - The April contract maintains a short - selling view, but it may fluctuate strongly following the near - term contracts during the peak season from November to January, and positions can be gradually established [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Futures Contracts | Contract | Yesterday's Price | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2510 | 1137.8 | 0.15 | 817 | 4292 | - 526 | | EC2512 | 1831.0 | 2.11 | 35117 | 30249 | 1335 | | EC2602 | 1601.0 | 1.20 | 3971 | 11509 | 971 | | EC2604 | 1179.6 | 0.67 | 1726 | 14224 | 170 | | EC2606 | 1397.9 | 1.68 | 285 | 1377 | - 25 | [2] Month - to - Month Spreads | Spread | Previous Day | Two Days Ago | Three Days Ago | Daily Report | Friday | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2510 - 2512 | - 693.2 | - 657.0 | - 651.7 | - 36.2 | - 111.3 | | EC2512 - 2602 | 230.0 | 211.1 | 205.4 | 18.9 | 70.0 | [2] Spot Freight Indexes | Index | Update Frequency | Announcement Date | Unit | Current Period | Previous Period | Two Periods Ago | Current Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SCFI (Euro - line) | Weekly | 2025/10/20<br>2025/10/24 | USD/TEU | 1140.38<br>1246 | 1031.80<br>1145 | 1046.50<br>1068 | 10.52%<br>8.82% | | CCFI | Weekly | 2025/10/24 | - | 1293.12 | 1267.91 | 1287.15 | 1.99% | | NCFI | - | 2025/10/24 | - | 822.3 | 803.21 | 698.67 | 2.38% | [2] Recent Euro - line Quotations - Currently, downstream customers are booking space for the end of October and early November (Week 44 - 45). In Week 44, offline quotes are PA $1400, GEMINI $1600, and OA $1800. - Shipping companies plan to raise prices in November, with most announcements in the range of $2500 - $2700, and the average converted to the futures price is about 1800 points. On Tuesday, MSK opened at $2350, in line with expectations [3]. Related News - On October 27, US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that after two - day talks in Kuala Lumpur, the US and China reached a "very substantial framework agreement," and the US "will no longer consider" imposing a 100% tariff on China. - On October 27, the Israeli government spokesman said that Israel will maintain full security control over the Gaza Strip [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on the pulp market. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on October 24, 2025, was 5240.00. The price trends from October 20 - 24, 2025, showed fluctuations, with a -0.19048% change from the previous day on October 24 [3]. - The converted US - dollar prices from October 20 - 24, 2025, were 631.87, 634.15, 639.70, 643.64, and 643.64 respectively. The basis of Shandong Yinxing and Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing also showed certain changes during this period [3]. Pulp Import Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp brands like Golden Lion and Lion, and Chilean brand Yinxing, the port US - dollar prices, Shandong region RMB prices, and import profits are provided. For example, the import profit of Golden Lion was -145.57 [4]. Pulp Price Averages - From October 20 - 24, 2025, the national and Shandong regional average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged. The prices of cultural paper, packaging paper, and tissue paper also showed no change during this period [4]. Pulp Profit Margins - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white cardboard, and tissue paper were presented. The profit margin of tissue paper had a 0.0382 change from October 21 - 24, 2025, while the others remained unchanged [4]. Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper pulp were provided. These spreads showed little change from October 20 - 24, 2025 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. Positive signals from China-US negotiations have kept the risk appetite of risk assets at a high level. The release of the 15th Five-Year Plan communique has also received a positive response from the market [1]. - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips due to the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold on dips in the long - term [1]. - For zinc, given the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. Consider gradually taking profits on long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets and look for far - month reverse spread opportunities [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see due to uncertainties in the news and macro - aspects [3]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, with short - term macro uncertainties and potential price - supporting motives from Indonesian policies [3]. - For lead, the spot market is tight, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [6]. - For tin, the short - term domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand. It is advisable to follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and hold on dips in the long - term [10]. - For industrial silicon, the Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [13][16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the spot premium of SHFE copper decreased by 10, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 333, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 977. The LME inventory decreased by 575 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is affected by tariff negotiations and the 15th Five - Year Plan communique. There are still disturbances in the scrap copper supply in Anhui and other places, and the uncertainty of scrap copper supply disturbances will continue to increase in the fourth quarter and next year [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 70, and the social inventory decreased by 3,860. The LME inventory decreased by 4,550 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is flat, the demand for photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and there has been seasonal inventory accumulation during the festival and significant destocking after the festival. The global economic recovery is showing signs, but there are uncertainties in Sino - US economic and trade relations, and some European electrolytic aluminum plants have reduced production [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 90, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 459. The LME inventory increased by 2,900 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price oscillated upwards. The domestic and imported TC are showing a downward trend. The domestic mine is expected to be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas mine had an unexpected increase in the second quarter. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the export window has opened [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 700, and the LME inventory increased by 180 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing both at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end, and the policy has a motive to support prices [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and other prices remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel mill's production schedule in October increased slightly month - on - month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost of ferronickel and ferrochrome remains stable, and the inventory remains at a high level [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 5,368. The LME inventory decreased by 4,375 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The tight spot market has driven up the lead price. The supply side has slow resumption of production, and the demand side has increased battery production but high finished - product inventory. The short - term supply - demand mismatch is serious [6]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the tin position increased by 4,095, and the LME inventory increased by 30 [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The tin price oscillated. The supply side has marginal improvement after the end of Yunnan Tin's maintenance, but there are still uncertainties overseas. The demand is mainly supported by rigidity, and the domestic short - term supply - demand is weak [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 215, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 44 [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of Xinjiang's leading enterprises is stable, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season. The Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with monthly inventory accumulation of 4 - 5 million tons [13][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 600, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 60 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Similar to industrial silicon, the Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View No explicit core view presented in the given content. The report mainly provides detailed data on the basis of various commodities. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Macro - On October 24, 2025, the spot price of IF was 4661 with a change of 55, the basis was 26 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.62 [2] - The spot price of IH was 3046 with a change of 19, the basis was -3 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.41 [2] - The spot price of IC was 7259 with a change of 116, the basis was 99 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.81 [2] Black - In Shanghai on October 24, 2025, the spot price of rebar was 3200 with a change of -20, the basis was 154 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.83 [3] - In Beijing, the spot price of rebar was 3190 with a change of 10, the basis was 144 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.12 [3] - In Shanghai, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was 3290 with no change, the basis was 40 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.63 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of ore was 825 with a change of -6, the basis was 54, and the basis deviation was 0.46 [3] - At Tianjin Port, the spot price of coke was 1656 with no change, the basis was -102 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.64 [3] - For port warehouse receipts of coking coal, the spot price was 1617 with a change of 3, the basis was 369 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.80 [3] - At Qinhuangdao Port, the spot price of steam coal was 769 with a change of 2, the basis was -32 corresponding to the 2511 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.17 [3] - For low - price glass in Shahe, the spot price was 1104 with no change, the basis was 12 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.14 [3] - For low - price glass in Hubei, the spot price was 1070 with no change, the basis was -22 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.15 [3] - In Yinchuan, the spot price of ferrosilicon was 5600 with a change of 20, the basis was -62 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.58 [3] - In Inner Mongolia, the spot price of ferromanganese was 6050 with no change, the basis was 208 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.74 [3] Energy and Chemicals - For port methanol on October 24, 2025, the spot price was 2232 with no change, the basis was -40, and the basis deviation was -0.87 [3] - In Henan, the spot price of methanol was 2350 with no change, the basis was 78 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.40 [3] - In southern Shandong, the spot price of methanol was 2485 with no change, the basis was 213 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.55 [3] - In Hebei, the spot price of methanol was 2785 with no change, the basis was 513 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.97 [3] - In East China, the spot price of PTA was 4436 with a change of 13, the basis was -82, and the basis deviation was -0.83 [3] - In East China, the spot price of PP was 6575 with a change of 15, the basis was -87, and the basis deviation was -0.67 [3] - In North China, the spot price of LLDPE was 6910 with a change of -10, the basis was -59, and the basis deviation was -0.20 [3] - For high - end PVC, the spot price was 4625 with no change, the basis was -90, and the basis deviation was 0.64 [3] - For low - end PVC, the spot price was 4555 with no change, the basis was -160, and the basis deviation was 0.72 [3] - In East China, the spot price of asphalt was 3500 with no change, the basis was 201 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.22 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of asphalt was 3350 with a change of 20, the basis was 131 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.09 [3] - In South China, the spot price of asphalt was 3500 with no change, the basis was 201 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.49 [3] - For domestic ethylene glycol, the spot price was 4172 with a change of -13, the basis was 95, and the basis deviation was 0.87 [3] - The spot price of soda ash was 1150 with no change, the basis was -79 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.57 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of pulp was 4990 with a change of -10, the basis was -250 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.92 [3] - In East China, the spot price of staple fiber was 6180 with a change of 30, the basis was 40 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.49 [3] - The spot price of urea was 1490 with no change, the basis was -152 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.96 [3] - In Shanghai, the spot price of natural rubber was 14960 with a change of 80, the basis was -375 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.63 [3] - For whole latex natural rubber, the spot price was 14635 with a change of 90, the basis was -700 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.56 [3] - In Qingdao, the spot price of 20 - number rubber was 1855 with a change of 25, the basis was 707 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.96 [3] - The spot price of styrene was 6515 with a change of -45, the basis was -24 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.98 [3] Non - ferrous Metals - On October 24, 2025, the spot price of copper was 86475 with a change of 975, the basis was 10, and the basis deviation was -0.18 [4] - The spot price of international copper was 76775 with a change of 1080, the basis was -1385 corresponding to the 2511 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.76 [4] - The spot price of aluminum was 21110 with a change of 70, the basis was -30, and the basis deviation was -0.22 [4] - The spot price of zinc was 22190 with a change of 90, the basis was -60, and the basis deviation was -0.82 [4] - The spot price of lead was 17300 with a change of 175, the basis was -215, and the basis deviation was -0.43 [4] - The spot price of nickel was 122050 with a change of 750, the basis was 400, and the basis deviation was 0.76 [4] - The spot price of tin was 281900 with a change of 1900, the basis was -2400, and the basis deviation was -0.85 [4] Agricultural Products - In Jiangsu on October 24, 2025, the spot price of 43% soybean meal was 2910 with no change, the basis was -23 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.07 [5] - In Jiangsu, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8440 with a change of 30, the basis was 246 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.10 [5] - The average spot price of 36% rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 2460 with a change of -10, the basis was 135 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.90 [5] - The market average spot price of rapeseed oil was 10283 with no change, the basis was 522 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.98 [5] - In Guangzhou, the spot price of 24° palm oil was 9050 with a change of 50, the basis was -72 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.88 [5] - The national spot price of cotton was 14555 with a change of -20, the basis was 1015 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.57 [5] - In Guangxi, the spot price of white sugar was 5750 with no change, the basis was 304 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.06 [5] - In Yunnan, the spot price of white sugar was 5830 with no change, the basis was 384 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.50 [5] - In Shijiazhuang, Hebei, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2960 with a change of 90, the basis was -126 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.47 [5] - In Dalian, Liaoning, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2890 with a change of 90, the basis was -196 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.54 [5] - In Dezhou, Shandong, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2750 with a change of 100, the basis was -336 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.68 [5] - In Shangqiu, Henan, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2800 with a change of 100, the basis was -286 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.70 [5] - In Bei'an, the spot price of soybeans was 4060 with no change, the basis was -44 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.80 [5] - In Jiamusi, the spot price of soybeans was 4140 with no change, the basis was 36 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.45 [5] - In Changchun, the spot price of corn was 2240 with no change, the basis was 107 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.47 [5] - In Weifang, the spot price of corn was 2360 with no change, the basis was 227 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.48 [5] - In Changchun, the spot price of starch was 2580 with no change, the basis was 109 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.12 [5] - In Weifang, the spot price of starch was 2605 with no change, the basis was 174 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.60 [5] - In Kaifeng, Henan, the spot price of live pigs was 11850 with a change of -80, the basis was -325 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.92 [5] - In Hebei, the spot price of red dates was 9600 with no change, the basis was -1150 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.55 [5] - In Shandong, the spot price of apples was 6400 with no change, the basis was -2450 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.98 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers mean that all four major Russian oil giants are under US sanctions. The short - term supply of Russian oil to India will drop close to zero. The reduction in Russian crude exports still needs to be evaluated, but Indian purchases have supported the Dubai market, and this support is expected to continue in the short term. Mid - term Russian supply reduction will affect the oil price center in Q4 and Q1 of 2026. Geopolitical concerns were triggered by the US military strike on Venezuelan transportation. The fundamentals have improved, with EIA crude oil inventories decreasing, US refinery operations rebounding, and the US Energy Department planning to buy 100,000 barrels of crude oil for the strategic reserve. However, the Singapore diesel inventory has reached a 243 - week high, suppressing the global diesel cracking space. Short - term oil prices may rebound with increased volatility, and the mid - term upside is limited, with the oversupply situation continuing in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **WTI, BRENT, DUBAI, etc.**: From October 20 to October 24, 2025, WTI prices changed by -$0.29, BRENT by -$0.05, and DUBAI by $0.30. Other price differentials and related products also showed various changes [3]. - **SC, OMAN, etc.**: SC prices increased by 5.20, OMAN decreased by 0.94, and other related indicators such as price differentials and domestic refined product prices also had corresponding changes during the same period [3]. - **Japan Naphtha, Singapore Fuel Oil, etc.**: Japan Naphtha - BRT and other related products' prices and price differentials changed from October 20 to October 24, 2025 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - US President Trump will sign a historic agreement to end military conflicts. Russia will respond to new US and European sanctions. The EU has officially passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russian energy. UBS expects Brent crude prices to remain in the range of $60 - $70 per barrel. The US government is preparing a proposal to open most US coastal waters for new offshore oil drilling, which is opposed by local governors [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels (a 0.2% decrease), and the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels (a 0.2% increase). The US to October 10 week EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, and the refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels. From October 16 - 23, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries decreased slightly, domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventories both decreased, the comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [4][5][16]. 3.4 Weekly View - Short - term: Indian purchases will continue to support the Dubai market. Oil prices may rebound with increased volatility, and the short - term supply of Russian oil to India will drop close to zero. - Mid - term: Russian supply reduction will affect the oil price center in Q4 and Q1 of 2026, which is affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine situation, the progress of the Trump - Putin meeting, and changes in Russian oil logistics. - Overall: The fundamentals have improved, but the Singapore diesel inventory has reached a 243 - week high, suppressing the global diesel cracking space. The mid - term upside of oil prices is limited, the oversupply situation in the fourth quarter continues, and caution is recommended when chasing high prices [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 27, 2025, to provide data support for potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 27, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86,475, the LME price was 10,922, and the ratio was 7.88; the domestic three - month price was 87,680, the LME price was 10,948, and the ratio was 7.89. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.09 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,190, the LME price was 3,216, and the ratio was 6.90; the domestic three - month price was 22,385, the LME price was 3,029, and the ratio was 5.78. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.51, with a loss of 5,172.40 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,110, the LME price was 2,884, and the ratio was 7.32; the domestic three - month price was 21,245, the LME price was 2,881, and the ratio was 7.35. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.36, with a loss of 2,991.35 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 124,100, the LME price was 15,131, and the ratio was 8.20. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.19, with a loss of 1,226.75 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,275, the LME price was 1,980, and the ratio was 8.74; the domestic three - month price was 17,550, the LME price was 2,017, and the ratio was 11.03. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.82, with a loss of 158.57 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 27, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 1,690, 1,650, 1,610, and 1,650 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 532, 962, 1,401, and 1,841 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 55, 85, 120, and 135, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 335, 456, and 576 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 90, 110, 95, and 80, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 334, 452, and 570 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, - 65, - 75, and - 70, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 322, 431, and 540 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1,000, 1,160, 1,330, and 1,600 [4]. - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 10, and the theoretical spread was 5,878 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 350 and 1,340 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 338 and 1,063 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 110 and 165, and the theoretical spreads were 180 and 309 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 340 and 320, and the theoretical spreads were 202 and 317 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 27, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.92, 4.13, 5.00, 0.95, 1.21, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous) were 3.63, 3.83, 5.43, 0.95, 1.42, and 0.67 [5].