| (安期貨 | | --- | | NGAN FUTURES | 燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/21 | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/11/14 | 371.73 | 414.41 | -5.40 | 710.26 | -295.85 | 31.99 | 42.68 | | 2025/11/17 | 366.33 | 415.16 | -6.17 | 707.49 | -292.33 | 31.67 | 48.83 | | 2025/11/18 | 359.79 | 411.23 | -6.97 | 732.42 | -321.19 | 3 ...

游期现01-60到70，成交弱 玻璃产销：沙河76，湖北105，华东105，华南100 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/11/13 2025/11/19 2025/11/20 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/11/13 2025/11/19 2025/11/20 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1190.0 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | -60.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1305.0 | 1257.0 | 1232.0 | -73.0 | -25.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1210.0 | 1150.0 | 1140.0 | -70.0 | -10.0 | SA01合约 | 1239.0 | 1182.0 | 1158.0 | -81.0 | -24.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 ...

部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 LPG = FA 图H 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/21 LR G GARP 内院CFR华 CP预测合 山东烷基 丙烷CIF日本 纸面进口利润 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 目似 化油 E 4440 2025/11/14 4460 4364 506 482 4630 7050 -78 ୧୧୧ 110 2025/11/17 4364 4440 4670 4390 559 202 485 7050 -20 - 2025/11/18 4335 4590 7030 4345 4380 567 523 493 -6 l 2025/11/19 4325 4370 -280 4345 ୧୧୧ 208 491 4590 7040 -49 4325 2025/11/20 4350 4360 498 4570 7040 -47 l - l 日度变化 -10 08 -10 -20 0 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with some TA devices under maintenance in the near - term,开工 declines, polyester load drops, inventory accumulates, and the basis remains weak. However, considering high maintenance, no obvious pressure on downstream, India's revocation of BIS certification, limited far - month production, and a good PX pattern, opportunities for long - short spreads and expanding processing fees should be noted [3]. - For MEG, short - term inventory accumulation is expected to continue. But due to low coal - based efficiency after the strengthening of coal prices, there may be a partial reduction in supply. In the long - term, the overall pattern is expected to weaken due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the efficiency and operation of the polyester yarn end have not improved significantly, staple fiber exports maintain high growth, and short - term new capacity launches are relatively limited. Opportunities for expanding processing fees and warehouse receipt situations should be noted [3]. - For natural rubber, with stable national explicit inventory and the price of Thai cup rubber stable while rainfall affects tapping, the strategy is to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 14 - 20, 2025, crude oil decreased by 0.1, PTA spot decreased by 10, polyester profit increased by 20, and inventory (warehouse receipts + valid forecasts) increased by 4,608. The average daily transaction basis of PTA spot was 2601(-70) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million - ton device was under maintenance [3]. - **Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state. With no obvious pressure on downstream products and India's revocation of BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope is not high. There are opportunities for long - short spreads and expanding processing fees [3]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 14 - 20, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 4, the MEG inner - market price decreased by 34, and the coal - based MEG profit decreased by 34 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance, Huayi's 200,000 - ton device was under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarted [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term inventory accumulation is expected to continue. But considering the low efficiency of coal - based production, the supply may be reduced. In the long - term, the pattern will weaken due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 14 - 20, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained stable, and the profit of staple fiber increased by 20 [3]. - **Device Operation**: The near - term device operation was stable, with an operation rate of 97.5%. The polyester yarn end's operation rate was stable, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory decreased [3]. - **Outlook**: High - growth exports prevent obvious inventory accumulation. With limited short - term new capacity launches, opportunities for expanding processing fees and warehouse receipt situations should be noted [3]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: From November 14 - 20, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard decreased by 20, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 190, and the price of RU main contract decreased by 190 [6]. - **Key Indicators**: The national explicit inventory was stable, the price of Thai cup rubber was stable, and rainfall affected tapping [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [6]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From November 14 - 20, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of styrene (CFR China) increased by 5 [9]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene decreased, and the domestic profits of EPS, PS, and ABS remained unchanged from November 14 - 20, 2025 [9].

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/21 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/14 | 2199 | 2275 | 2036 | 2209 | 2226 | 2096 | | 2025/11/17 | 2196 | 2274 | 2033 | 2221 | 2226 | 2094 | | 2025/11/18 | 2199 | 2273 | 2033 | 2223 | 2226 | 2094 | | 2025/11/19 | 2200 | 2273 | 2032 | 2220 | 2230 | 2093 | | 2025/11/20 | 2199 | 2270 | 2032 | 2214 | 2230 | 2092 | | 环比 | -1 | -3 | 0 | -6 | 0 | -1 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎， ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 830.0 0.0 0.0 63.0 -10.0 25省终端可用天数 25.4 0.0 5.4 4.5 7.8 秦皇岛5000 737.0 0.0 0.0 60.0 -13.0 25省终端供煤 548.1 1.0 -60.4 -91.9 -74.7 广州港5500 865.0 0.0 0.0 60.0 -45.0 北方港库存 2473.0 4.0 187.0 229.0 -175.4 鄂尔多斯5500 595.0 10.0 10.0 60.0 -35.0 北方锚地船舶 117.0 -7.0 -27.0 29.0 72.0 大同5500 645.0 10.0 10.0 65.0 -65.0 北方港调入量 172.8 -8.0 9.5 25.9 -6.7 榆林6000 732.0 0.0 20.0 50.0 -103.0 北方港吞吐量 107.6 -16.2 -74.8 -32.5 -43.1 榆林6200 760.0 0.0 20.0 50.0 -103.0 CBCFI海运指数 1008.5 -0.5 -136.1 88 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices have started a short - term upward trend due to tightened supply in production areas and downstream replenishment demand, with farmers' selling intention being a key factor. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation is tight, and prices are expected to rise after the release of farmers' selling pressure [2] - Starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices in the short - term. High inventory suppresses prices, and downstream consumption rhythm is crucial for long - term price trends [3] - For sugar, short - term Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import policies, with domestic sugar cost as support. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar cost may be broken through. A high - short strategy is maintained, but the downward space is limited [4] - Cotton production is estimated to have decreased. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial for textile exports, making long - term long positions suitable [6] - Egg prices have a slightly upward - moving price center due to supply and demand factors. The acceleration of the elimination process will drive prices up [10] - Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term as the national cold - storage inventory has decreased compared to last year [14] - Pig prices are in a weak and volatile situation in the short - term, with mid - term supply pressure remaining. Attention should be paid to factors such as the selling rhythm, diseases, policies, and capital sentiment [14] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Corn Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, prices in different regions showed some changes. For example, the price in Changchun remained at 2070, while in other regions like Jinzhou, there were fluctuations. The basis changed from - 25 to 2, and the trade profit and import profit also changed [2] - **Starch Price Data**: During the same period, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2700 and 2800 respectively, with the basis changing from 150 to 232 and the processing profit changing from 9 to - 1 [2] Sugar - **Sugar Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the spot price in Kunming decreased by 45, and the Zhengzhou futures price decreased by 446 [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Cotton Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the 3128 cotton price increased by 20, and the import profit and other data also changed [6] - **Cotton Yarn Price Data**: The Vietnam yarn spot price remained stable, while the import profit decreased by 18, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 21 [6] Eggs - **Egg Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the prices in main production areas remained relatively stable, and the basis decreased by 61. The prices of substitute products such as broilers and pigs changed little [10] Apples - **Apple Price Data**: The spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000 from 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20. The national cold - storage inventory decreased, with Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu all having lower inventory levels than last year [14] Pigs - **Pig Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the prices in different production areas fluctuated slightly, and the basis increased by 70 [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 21, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 86425, LME price is 10740, with a ratio of 8.02; March domestic price is 86100, LME price is 10759, ratio 8.03. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.08, profit is - 503.28; spot export profit is 21.23 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 22420, LME price is 3125, ratio 7.17; March domestic price is 22405, LME price is 2990, ratio 5.77. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.51, profit is - 4165.28 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 21570, LME price is 2781, ratio 7.75; March domestic price is 21555, LME price is 2812, ratio 7.68. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.35, profit is - 1645.40 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 119950, LME price is 14384, ratio 8.34. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.18, profit is - 1472.02 [1] - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 17100, LME price is 1986, ratio 8.62; March domestic price is 17235, LME price is 2015, ratio 11.12. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.73, profit is - 212.45 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are 50, 20, 40, 50 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 532, 963, 1402, 1842 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads are - 35, - 15, - 15, 15, theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 457, 578 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads are 5, 30, 40, 50, theoretical spreads are 219, 338, 458, 578 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads are - 10, 5, 15, 45, theoretical spreads are 211, 318, 425, 533 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads are - 270, - 70, 290, 570 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 160, theoretical spread is 6041 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 315 and - 265 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads are 0 and - 35 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads are 130 and 120 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.84, 3.99, 5.00, 0.96, 1.25, 0.77 in Shanghai (three - continuous) and 3.56, 3.82, 5.34, 0.93, 1.40, 0.67 in London (three - continuous) respectively [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2][10] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3][11] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [3][11] Group 2: Market Data Summary Basis and Spread - Shandong Basis (+80) (Hongrun): On November 19, it was 15, with a daily change of 17 and a weekly change of 24 [4][12] - East China Basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse): On November 19, it was 105, with a daily change of -13 and a weekly change of -16 [4][12] - South China Basis (Foshan Warehouse): On November 19, it was 35, with a daily change of -13 and a weekly change of -66 [4][12] - 12 - 01 Spread: On November 19, it was 4, with a daily change and a weekly change of 5 [4][12] - 12 - 03 Spread: On November 19, it was -46, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of -2 [4][12] - 01 - 02 Spread: On November 19, it was -23, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of -7 [4][12] Futures Contract - BU Main Contract (01): On November 19, the price was 3045, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of 16 [4][12] - Trading Volume: On November 19, it was 242605, with a daily change of 23474 and a weekly change of -101039 [4][12] - Open Interest: On November 19, it was 338791, with a daily change of -10853 and a weekly change of -5664 [4][12] - Delivery Quantity: It remained at 4690 from November 13 - 19 [4][12] Spot Market - Brent Crude Oil: On November 19, the price was 64.9, with a daily change of 0.7 and a weekly change of 2.2 [4][12] - Jingbo: On November 19, the price was 3030, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 20 [4][12] - Hongrun: On November 19, the price was 2980, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of 40 [4][12] - Zhenjiang Warehouse: The price remained at 3150 from November 13 - 19 [4][12] - Foshan Warehouse: On November 19, the price was 3080, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -50 [4][12] Profit - Asphalt - Marrow Profit: On November 19, it was 59, with a daily change of -32 and a weekly change of -89 [4][12] - Marrow - type Refinery Comprehensive Profit: On November 19, it was 654, with a daily change of -93 [5][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core Views - This week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream point - pricing volume rebounded significantly. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. - Overseas production suspension news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, which was stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was okay, and the acceptance of high prices increased. In the short term, it may show a fluctuating trend [1][2]. - This week, zinc prices fluctuated. The domestic and imported TC decreased further this week. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee has dropped significantly. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, the demand in Europe is average and the growth rate in the Middle East is high. The price center may be difficult to decline deeply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity and be cautious when increasing positions; for the month - spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 [5]. - Nickel prices decreased this week. The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities [6]. - Stainless steel prices were weak. The steel mill's production plan in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory remained at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities [7]. - This week, lead prices fluctuated at a high level. The supply of primary and recycled lead was tight, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious. Now the resumption of recycled lead production has alleviated some of the contradictions, and the social inventory has increased. The demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly next week, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - This week, tin prices increased. The processing fee of tin ore remained at a low level, and the supply has been marginally repaired. The overseas output is still controversial. The demand is mainly rigid, and the overseas LME inventory has recovered. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the supply will increase, but the elasticity is limited. It is recommended to hold at a low price close to the cost or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [11]. - This week, the price of industrial silicon was stable. The production in the northwest region was basically stable, and the overall change was small. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate; in the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. - Affected by the lithium - battery demand expectation and the market's bullish sentiment, the price of lithium carbonate was strong. The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and the downstream inventory is still relatively sufficient. The basis has slightly weakened. In the long - term, if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [17]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the Shanghai copper spot price changed from 55 to 95, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 130, the LME inventory increased by 17,375, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 800 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream point - pricing volume rebounded significantly. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 90, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2,000, and the aluminum LME注销仓单 increased by 29,450 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas production suspension news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, which was stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was okay, and the acceptance of high prices increased. In the short term, it may show a fluctuating trend [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 100, the zinc social inventory remained unchanged, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,550, and the LME zinc注销仓单 increased by 100 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC decreased further this week. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, the demand in Europe is average and the growth rate in the Middle East is high. The export window has opened [5]. - **Strategy**: The domestic consumption of zinc is weak, but there will be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. The price center may be difficult to decline deeply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity and be cautious when increasing positions; for the month - spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 1, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 700, the LME inventory decreased by 1,986, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 2,238 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100, the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill's production plan in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory remained at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the lead spot price increased by 10, the LME inventory decreased by 325, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 2,500 [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of primary and recycled lead was tight, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious. Now the resumption of recycled lead production has alleviated some of the contradictions, and the social inventory has increased. The demand is expected to weaken [9]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly next week, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the tin spot import profit decreased by 236.31, the LME inventory increased by 60, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 10 [10][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of tin ore remained at a low level, and the supply has been marginally repaired. The overseas output is still controversial. The demand is mainly rigid, and the overseas LME inventory has recovered [11]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the supply will increase, but the elasticity is limited. It is recommended to hold at a low price close to the cost or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 410, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 410, the 553 East China basis decreased by 410, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 410, and the warehouse receipt increased by 10 [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in the northwest region was basically stable, and the overall change was small. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state [15]. - **Price Trend**: In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate; in the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,450, the main - contract basis decreased by 4,280, the near - month contract basis increased by 1,500, and the warehouse receipt increased by 155 [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and the downstream inventory is still relatively sufficient. The basis has slightly weakened [17]. - **Price Trend**: In the long - term, if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [17].