Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - US soybean export sales and shipments showed significant increases in the week ending July 31, 2025, exceeding market expectations [1]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, and the production is expected to be lower than the previous year [1]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach 570,000 tons, and the recent wet weather is beneficial to crop growth [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales: In the week ending July 31, 2025, the net increase in current - market - year soybean export sales was 467,800 tons, up 71% from the previous week and 63% from the four - week average, exceeding the market forecast of 100,000 - 300,000 tons. The net increase in next - year's soybean export sales was 545,000 tons, within the market forecast range of 200,000 - 500,000 tons. The soybean export shipments were 689,500 tons, up 63% from the previous week and 97% from the four - week average [1]. - Brazil's soybean situation: Patria AgroNegocios estimated that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area would be 48.13 million hectares, with a growth rate of 1.43% compared to the previous year, the smallest increase since 2006/07. The production is expected to be 166.56 million tons, lower than the previous year's 168.74 million tons [1]. - Australia's rapeseed situation: A research report shows that Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 570,000 tons. Recent wet weather in major production states is beneficial to crop growth, and long - term weather forecasts from August to October are also favorable [1]. Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of bean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 1 to August 7, 2025 [2]. Other Information - The report also mentions the precipitation in major producing countries, the import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, the import profit of oils and fats, the basis of protein meal and oils and fats, and the price spread of oils and fats and oilseeds, but no specific data is provided for some of them [1][3][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil declined, the near - month spread was weak and at a historical low, and the EW spread rebounded on Friday. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.75/ton, the basis fluctuated at a low level, and the FU01 internal - external spread was 0. The 0.5 cracking spread of Singapore fuel oil fluctuated downward, the 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.25/ton, the LU11 internal - external spread fluctuated around $10, and the 09 internal - external spread continued to weaken. Singapore's on - land and floating storage inventories increased this week, pressuring the near - month spread. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high, with high net exports, while UAE's shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Egypt's net imports decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a seasonal high. The east - west divergence of high - sulfur fuel oil continued, and the current price difference triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - quality pattern, the 380cst cracking spread was the weakest, and the heavy - quality crude oil premium was the strongest, with a predicted two - way regression in the future. This week, LU weakened as expected, the external MF0.5 followed gasoline and diesel to weaken slightly, the basis fluctuated, and the LU internal - external spread weakened. The Singapore hi - 5 spread declined slightly, with no clear direction recently [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from 414.34 to 404.69, a change of - 6.41; Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased from 469.52 to 455.81, a change of - 9.08; Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased from - 3.46 to - 2.15, a change of 0.63; Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased from 652.93 to 644.50, a change of - 10.11; Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased from - 183.41 to - 188.69, a change of 1.03; LGO - Brent M1 decreased from 20.50 to 22.56, a change of - 0.85; Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased from 55.18 to 51.12, a change of - 2.67 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil - For Singapore fuel oil swaps, from August 1st to 7th, 2025, Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 420.12 to 406.75, a change of - 6.45; Singapore 180cst M1 decreased from 431.52 to 418.46, a change of - 4.74; Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased from 501.95 to 484.37, a change of - 10.08; Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased from 89.91 to 85.03, a change of - 0.80; Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased from - 4.72 to - 1.82, a change of 0.91; Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 163.38 to - 144.85, a change of - 4.16 [1][6] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, FOB 380cst decreased from 412.35 to 402.93, a change of - 3.90; FOB VLSFO decreased from 504.71 to 488.15, a change of - 6.96; 380 - basis decreased from - 5.95 to - 5.35, a change of - 0.30; high - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 0.0 to 2.6, a change of 1.3; low - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 9.4 to 9.9, a change of 1.4 [2] Domestic FU - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, FU 01 decreased from 2946 to 2838, a change of - 21; FU 05 decreased from 2906 to 2799, a change of - 19; FU 09 decreased from 2916 to 2826, a change of - 9; FU 01 - 05 decreased from 40 to 39, a change of - 2; FU 05 - 09 decreased from - 10 to - 27, a change of - 10; FU 09 - 01 increased from - 30 to - 12, a change of 12 [2] Domestic LU - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, LU 01 decreased from 3607 to 3463, a change of - 33; LU 05 decreased from 3553 to 3416, a change of - 21; LU 09 decreased from 3625 to 3510, a change of - 35; LU 01 - 05 decreased from 54 to 47, a change of - 12; LU 05 - 09 increased from - 72 to - 94, a change of 14; LU 09 - 01 decreased from 18 to 47, a change of - 2 [3]

Group 1: Report Core View - The PG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to factors such as weak domestic combustion demand, high port inventory pressure, and a weak international fundamental outlook. Although domestic chemical demand is expected to increase slightly in the short term, the overall situation remains unfavorable [1]. Group 2: Market Data Summary Price Data - On August 8, 2025, the price of South China civil LPG (the cheapest deliverable) was 4380 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -10 yuan/ton. The prices of other regions and related products also showed certain changes, such as a -10 yuan/ton change in East China liquefied gas and a -10 yuan/ton change in Shandong LPG [1]. - The FEI and CP prices decreased, while PP prices fluctuated. The production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI [1]. Market Spread and Position Data - The PG futures market was weak, with the monthly spread continuing to weaken. The 09 - 10 spread was -468 (-7), and the 9 - 10 spread was -439 (-18) [1]. - The basis of the main contract (moved to the 09 contract) strengthened to 445 (+79) [1]. - The number of registered warehouse receipts decreased by 45 to 9759 lots, with 20 lots decreased in Qingdao Yunda and 25 lots decreased in Ningbo Baidinian [1]. International Market and Cost Data - The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed, while the US - Asia arbitrage window was open [1]. - The August CP official price decreased, with propane at $520/ton (down $55/ton from last month) and butane at $490/ton (down $55/ton from last month). The estimated landed cost of propane was about 4327 yuan/ton, and that of butane was about 4090 yuan/ton [1]. Regional Spread Data - The PG - CP spread was 30 (-13), the FEI - MB spread was 159 (+3), the FEI - CP spread was 5 (+0.5), and the FEI - MOPJ spread was -53 (-5) [1]. Fundamental Data - In terms of fundamentals, the arrival volume increased, port inventories accumulated, factory inventories decreased slightly, and the commodity volume rebounded slightly [1]. - The spot profit of PDH - made PP fluctuated, while the paper profit continued to improve. The profits of other downstream devices decreased [1]. - The PDH operating rate was 72.63% (-0.5 pct). Although Liaoning Jinfa resumed production, Tianjin Bohua shut down due to a malfunction and is expected to restart next week, along with Jiangsu Ruiheng [1].

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/8/8 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 230家焦化产能利用率 230家焦炭产量 全样本焦化焦炭库存 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分 析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 95.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 247家高炉产能利用率 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 190.00 200.00 210.00 220.00 230.00 240.00 250.00 260.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 铁水产量 2021 2022 2 ...

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the US tariff details on copper mainly affect the market in several ways, including the reversal of the CL arbitrage spread logic, potential outflow of US export supply, and a more relaxed import situation in China. The report is not pessimistic about copper prices in Q3 and Q4, seeing dips as opportunities [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and August is expected to be a seasonal off - peak for demand. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading strategies [1]. - For zinc, prices have fluctuated downward. Supply is increasing, while domestic demand is seasonally weak and overseas demand is average. Short - term strategies include waiting and watching, holding long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and looking for opportunities in the positive spread between months [2]. - For nickel, supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [3]. - For stainless steel, supply has decreased due to some steel mill cut - backs, demand is mainly for rigid needs with some restocking, and the overall fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [3]. - For lead, prices have declined this week. Supply is tight, demand is weak, and there is expected to be inventory accumulation in July. However, lead prices are expected to rise next week as battery factories replenish stocks [5]. - For tin, prices have fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, and demand is expected to slow down. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term short - selling at high prices is recommended [7]. - For industrial silicon, the recent supply reduction by leading enterprises has improved the supply - demand balance. The复产 rhythm of Southwest China and Hesheng is crucial. In the long - term, the market will mainly oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [10]. - For lithium carbonate, the market is affected by resource - end compliance issues. In the short - term, there is upward potential if risks are realized, while in the long - term, prices will oscillate at a low level if risks are resolved [12]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market trading this week focused on the results of the 232 investigation. The US decision not to impose tariffs on refined copper but only on copper products exported to the US has had a significant impact on the market. The CL spread may shift towards export profit, US supply may flow out, and China's import situation may become more relaxed. The market demand support remains, and dips in copper prices are seen as opportunities [1]. Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with imports providing an increment from January to May. August is a seasonal off - peak for demand, with weak aluminum product exports and a decline in the photovoltaic sector. Inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading strategies [1]. Zinc - Prices have fluctuated downward this week. The domestic processing fee (TC) has increased in August, and smelting output has increased. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is average. Domestic social inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory has been decreasing since May. Short - term strategies include waiting and watching, holding long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and looking for opportunities in the positive spread between months [2]. Nickel - Supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak overall, and inventory at home and abroad is stable. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [3]. Stainless Steel - Supply has decreased due to some steel mill cut - backs since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some restocking due to the macro - environment. Costs are stable, and inventory in Xifu has decreased slightly. The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [3]. Lead - Prices have declined this week. Supply is tight due to low scrap battery supply and high - cost recycling. Demand is weak, with high battery inventory and low consumer purchasing power. There is expected to be inventory accumulation in July, but prices are expected to rise next week as battery factories replenish stocks [5]. Tin - Prices have fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance in domestic smelters. Overseas, there are signs of production resumption in Wa State, and the import volume from the DRC has exceeded expectations. Demand is expected to slow down, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME market. Short - term short - selling at high prices is recommended [7]. Industrial Silicon - The recent supply reduction by leading enterprises has improved the supply - demand balance. The market inventory has decreased significantly, and the high basis has led to the cancellation of warehouse receipts. The复产 rhythm of Southwest China and Hesheng is crucial. In the long - term, the market will mainly oscillate at the bottom of the cycle due to over - capacity [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The market has been affected by the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law and resource - end compliance issues. In the short - term, there is upward potential if risks are realized. In the long - term, prices will oscillate at a low level if risks are resolved, and a significant weakening of demand is needed to open up further downward space [12].

Report Overview - The report is a daily update on global asset markets, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data, released on August 8, 2025, by the macro team of the research center [2]. Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: Yields in major economies showed various changes. For example, the US 10 - year yield was 4.251 on August 7, 2025, with a latest change of 0.022, a one - week change of - 0.125, a one - month change of - 0.100, and a one - year change of 0.111. Yields in other countries also had different trends over different time periods [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The US 2 - year yield was 3.720 on August 7, 2025. There were also changes in other countries' 2 - year yields, such as the UK, Germany, and Japan, over different time frames [3]. Exchange Rates - **Dollar vs. Emerging Economies Currencies**: The dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies changed. For example, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.425 on August 7, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.72% and a one - year change of - 3.36% [3]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates were 7.181 on August 7, 2025, with different changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods [3]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies Indices**: Indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq had different performance. The S&P 500 closed at 6340.000 on August 7, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.08%, a one - week change of 0.01%, a one - month change of 0.95%, and a one - year change of 16.62% [3]. - **Other Indices**: Including Russian, Japanese, and Chinese indices, they also showed different trends over different time periods [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Different credit bond indices, such as US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, and emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond indices, had positive changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods [3][4]. Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures - **Index Performance**: A - shares closed at 3639.67 with a 0.16% change. Other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 also had their respective closing prices and percentage changes [5]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比changes were provided for indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500, as well as the S&P 500 and German DAX [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate and its环比changes were given for several indices [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were presented [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比changes were shown for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - cap board, and ChiNext [5]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis and percentage changes were provided for IF, IH, and IC contracts [5]. Treasury Futures - Treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 had their closing prices and percentage changes on August 7, 2025 [6]. - Money market rates such as R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were reported, along with their daily changes in basis points [6].

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/08 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/08/01 | 3240 | 3350 | 3360 | 3270 | 3410 | 3380 | | 2025/08/04 | 3220 | 3330 | 3330 | 3260 | 3380 | 3350 | | 2025/08/05 | 3280 | 3370 | 3380 | 3290 | 3370 | 3390 | | 2025/08/06 | 3330 | 3390 | 3420 | 3320 | 3420 | 3420 | | 2025/08/07 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | 上海冷卷 | 乐从冷卷 | | 2025/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin) on August 8, 2025 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 8, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,480, the three - month price was 78,470, the LME three - month price was 9,701, and the ratio was 8.08 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,520, the three - month price was 22,595, the LME three - month price was 2,814, and the ratio was 5.99 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,690, the three - month price was 20,710, the LME three - month price was 2,631, and the ratio was 7.89 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119,900, and the spot import profit was - 1,667.45 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,700, the three - month price was 16,900, the LME three - month price was 2,006, and the ratio was 11.24 [2] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 190, 200, 170, and 110 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 493, 885, 1285, and 1685 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 225, 240, 250, and 235 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 456, and 577 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 70, 30, - 20, and - 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 330, 445, and 561 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80, 105, 135, and 155 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1060, 1160, 1320, and 1560 respectively [3] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 120, and the theoretical spread was 5559 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 200 and - 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 152 and 614 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 165 and 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 109 and 240 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 95 and 175 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 116 and 228 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 8, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.47, 3.79, 4.64, 0.92, 1.23, and 0.75 respectively [4]

l js 永安合成橡胶早报 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) 6000 - 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 le e -100Q 2 -2000 2020 2021 = · 2022 2023 · 2024 2025 BD 卫星化学丁二烯纸货结构 东明石化丁二烯竞拍情况 14000 1 200 13000 800 700 13000 1000 12000 600 12000 500 11000 500 11000 400 10000 0 300 10000 200 -500 9000 9000 100 -1000 8000 8000 0 12/2025 /12/2025 /26/2025 16/2025 6/4/2025 6/18/2025 6/25/2025 /18/2025 /19/2025 3/5/2025 19/2025 26/2025 6/11/2025 /8/2025 15/2025 2/5/2025 /14/2025 /28/2025 22/2025 /21/2025 707/6/1 707/7/1 2/25/202 707/51 707/8/1 tor 197 4/9/2025 ( ...

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/8 | | 2025/7/31 | | 2025/8/6 | 2025/8/7 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/7/31 | 2025/8/6 | 2025/8/7 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1284.0 | 1181.0 | 1173.0 | -111.0 | -8.0 | FG09合约 | 1117.0 | 1083.0 | 1076.0 | -41.0 | -7.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1233.0 | 1147.0 | 1147.0 | -86.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1224.0 | 1231.0 | 1220.0 | -4.0 | -11.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1233.0 | 1147.0 | 1147. ...