Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian shutdowns slower than expected. High imports are likely in November, making it difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, and inventory depletion is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, they do not affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating, with LD weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6]. - **PP**: The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream enterprises are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production schedule is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average currently. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 21 - 27, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2265 to 2232, a decrease of 33. Other regional prices also showed certain fluctuations [1]. - **Profit and Basis**: The import profit remained at around 320 - 326, and the main contract basis and MTO profit also changed [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From October 21 - 27, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price decreased from 780 to 765 on October 24, and then no data was provided. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. showed an upward trend, with the main contract futures price increasing by 55 [6]. - **Inventory and Other Information**: The two - oil inventory decreased, and the production of domestic linear products decreased recently [6]. PP - **Price Data**: From October 21 - 27, 2025, the prices of Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene remained unchanged. The prices of East China PP, North China PP, etc. fluctuated, and the main contract futures price increased by 37 [6]. - **Inventory and Other Information**: Upstream and mid - stream enterprises are reducing inventory, and the PDH profit is around - 400 [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From October 21 - 27, 2025, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2500 on October 24 - 27, and the price of Shandong caustic soda decreased from 822 to 807. The price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4680 [6]. - **Profit and Other Information**: The export profit and comprehensive profit showed certain fluctuations, and the basis remained at - 90 [6].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3970.80, with a change of -133.60 [2] - London Silver's latest price is 47.37, with a change of -0.64 [2] - London Platinum's latest price is 1606.00, with a change of -43.00 [2] - London Palladium's latest price is 1440.00, with a change of -23.00 [2] - LME Copper's latest price is 11059.50, with a change of 112.00 [2] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 98.82, with a change of -0.12 [2] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.16, with no change [2] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.33, with no change [2] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 152.88, with a change of -0.01 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventory of SHFE Silver is 647.64, with a change of -17.33 [3] - The latest holding of Gold ETF is 1038.92, with a change of -8.01 [3] - The latest holding of Silver ETF is 15340.79, with a change of -79.02 [3] - The latest inventory of SGE Silver is 1108.07, with no change [3] - The latest deferred fee payment direction of SGE Silver is 2, with a change of 1.00 [3] - The latest deferred fee payment direction of SGE Gold is 1, with no change [3]

| | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/10/28 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/17 2025/10/24 2025/10/27 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/17 2025/10/24 2025/10/27 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5mm大 板 | 1173.0 | 1121.0 | 1121.0 | -52.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1231.0 | 1236.0 | 1246.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | | 沙河长城 | 1156.0 | 1104.0 | 1104.0 | -52.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1095.0 | 1092.0 | 1095.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month-on-month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high-low sulfur spread is at a historically low level year-on-year. The cracking of Singapore 0.5 low-sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. In terms of inventory, Singapore residual oil was destocked, the high-sulfur floating storage was higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low-sulfur floating storage increased slightly. Fujeirah's heavy inventory increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons, the high-sulfur floating storage was destocked but still at a historically high level year-on-year. ARA ports were destocked, and the inventory was at a historically low level year-on-year. In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month-on-month, while the UAE's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern. High-sulfur fuel oil has started to accumulate inventory globally. The cracking of Singapore fuel oil is still supported by purchasing demand, but it faces downward pressure in the medium term due to factors such as Russian sanctions. FU fluctuated mainly and weakened slightly this week [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed by -1.59; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed by -2.85; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed by 0.66; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed by 16.55; for Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1, it changed by -19.40; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed by 2.23; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed by -1.26 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed by -6.64; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed by -7.64; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed by -1.75; for Singapore GO M1, it changed by 0.63; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed by 0.01; for Singapore VLSFO - GO M1, it changed by -6.41 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot and Domestic FU Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Singapore FOB 380cst, the price changed by -5.84; for FOB VLSFO, it changed by 1.02; for 380 basis, it changed by 0.45; for high-sulfur internal - external spread, it changed by 0.2; for low-sulfur internal - external spread, it changed by 0.4. For domestic FU 01, it changed by 28; for FU 05, it changed by 31; for FU 09, it changed by 20; for FU 01 - 05 (not fully available), the change situation is not clear; for FU 05 - 09, it changed by 11; for FU 09 - 01, it changed by -8 [2] Domestic LU Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for domestic LU 01, the price changed by 33; for LU 05, it changed by 32; for LU 09, it changed by 37; for LU 01 - 05, it changed by 1; for LU 05 - 09, it changed by -5; for LU 09 - 01, it changed by 4 [3]

山东基差 (+80) 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 2020 2022 - 2024 2019 2021 =2023 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 124 11/1 -200 -300 周度变化 -108 -68 -108 -22 -14 0 138 30898 -29089 -3120 4.9 30 30 70 30 -232 -199 2025 -2019 -2024 -2021 -2022 2020 =2023 -2025 2019 -2024 -2025 -2021 -2022 =2023 ·2020 BU12-03 BU12-01 200 300 250 150 200 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 -50 N3 67 1/10 0/6 /13 0/27 /6 8/1 7 8 -100 -50 -150 -100 -200 2019 2019 -2021 2022 ·2024 2021 -2024 2020 -2023 2025 2020 2022 2023 ·2025 BU主力合约 BU远期结构 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core View No core view information is provided in the content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Market**: On October 27, the BR12 main - contract price was 10,995, down 125 from the previous day and 45 from the previous week. The open interest was 49,618, a decrease of 17,076 from the previous day and 23,190 from the previous week. The trading volume was 131,980, an increase of 31,320 from the previous day and 8,289 from the previous week. The warehouse receipt quantity was 8,920, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week. The long - short ratio was 27.81, down 10 from the previous day and 14 from the previous week [4]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - variety**: The butadiene rubber basis was 75, up 75 from the previous day and down 5 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene rubber basis was 455, up 25 from the previous day and 45 from the previous week. The 12 - 01 spread was 25, unchanged from the previous day and up 5 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was - 10, down 15 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4,385, up 170 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1,545, up 160 from the previous day and 220 from the previous week [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 11,050, down 50 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10,950, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,200, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,475, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 512, up 169 from the previous day and 384 from the previous week. The import profit was - 1,326, down 48 from the previous day and 51 from the previous week. The export profit was 1,845, up 42 from the previous day and 44 from the previous week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 8,175, down 215 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 8,100, down 250 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 960, unchanged from the previous day and down 40 from the previous week [4]. - **Profit**: The carbon - four extraction profit data is incomplete. The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 504, down 250 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The import profit was 224, down 249 from the previous day and 104 from the previous week. The export profit data is incomplete. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 988, unchanged from the previous day and up 125 from the previous week. The ABS production profit data is incomplete. The SBS production profit was 315, up 30 from the previous day and down 160 from the previous week [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No relevant information provided 3. Summary by Related Catalog SP Main Contract Closing Price - On October 27, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5258.00, with a 0.34351% increase from the previous day [3]. - The closing prices from October 21 - 27, 2025, showed fluctuations, with increases on some days and a decrease on October 24 [3]. Import Profit Calculation - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion was -145.57, for Canadian Lion was -593.29, and for Chilean Silver Star was -41.01 [4]. Pulp Price and Index - From October 21 - 27, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the average prices in Shandong [4]. - The cultural paper, packaging paper, and living paper indices also remained unchanged during this period [4]. Profit Margin Estimation - From October 22 - 27, 2025, the estimated profit margins of offset paper, copperplate paper, white cardboard, and living paper changed, with increases in offset paper, copperplate paper, and white cardboard, and a decrease in living paper [4]. Price Spreads - From October 21 - 27, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood, softwood and natural, softwood and chemimechanical, and softwood and waste paper showed certain changes [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron on October 28, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 are 5170 and 5220 respectively, with a daily change of -30 and a weekly change of 40. The latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract are 5564, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of 128 [2]. - For silicon manganese on the same day, the factory - ex prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 are 5680, 5580, 5650, 5600, and 5600 respectively. The latest price of the main contract is 5802, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of 64 [2]. Supply - The report presents historical production data of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, including monthly and weekly production and capacity utilization in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [5]. - It also shows the historical production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, including weekly production and enterprise operating rates [7]. Demand - The report shows historical data of demand - related indicators for silicon iron and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, such as the demand volume of silicon manganese (Steel Union caliber), and the procurement volume and price of silicon iron and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [5][7][8]. Inventory - For silicon iron, it shows the historical inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi) from 2021 - 2025, as well as the historical data of CZCE silicon - iron warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of the two [6]. - For silicon manganese, it presents the historical data of CZCE silicon - manganese warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, the sum of the two, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [8]. Cost and Profit - The report shows the historical data of electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi) for ferroalloys from 2021 - 2025, as well as the historical data of prices, operating rates, production gross profits of related raw materials such as semi - carbonated manganese ore, manganese ore, and blue carbon [6]. - It also presents the historical cost and profit data of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi) from 2021 - 2025, including production costs, profits converted to the main contract, and spot profits [6][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Data Price Information - The latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1537.01, with a daily change of 54.61, a weekly change of 54.61, a monthly change of 109.23, and a year - on - year change of - 20.89% [2]. - The latest price of Hebei quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1735.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly change of 55.00, and a year - on - year change of - 6.72% [2]. - The latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1660.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly change of 55.00, and a year - on - year change of - 21.70% [2]. - The latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1700.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly change of 55.00, and a year - on - year change of - 21.30% [2]. - The latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1230.00, with a daily change of 50.00, a weekly change of 50.00, a monthly change of 150.00, and a year - on - year change of - 27.65% [2]. Production and Inventory Data - The blast furnace operating rate is 89.94, with a weekly change of - 0.39, a monthly change of - 0.92, and a year - on - year change of 2.22% [2]. - The average daily iron water output is 239.90, with a weekly change of - 1.05, a monthly change of - 2.46, and a year - on - year change of 1.79% [2]. - The coking plant inventory is 37.49, with a weekly change of - 0.10, a monthly change of - 2.05, and a year - on - year change of - 6.02% [2]. - The port inventory is 200.09, with a weekly change of 4.94, a monthly change of 4.03, and a year - on - year change of 7.47% [2]. - The steel mill inventory is 633.16, with a weekly change of - 6.28, a monthly change of - 28.15, and a year - on - year change of 11.46% [2]. - The steel mill inventory days are 11.07, with a weekly change of - 0.12, a monthly change of - 0.59, and a year - on - year change of 2.03% [2]. - The coking capacity utilization rate is 73.99, with a weekly change of - 0.96, a monthly change of - 1.36, and a year - on - year change of 0.20% [2]. - The average daily coke output is 51.21, with a weekly change of - 0.07, a monthly change of - 0.81, and a year - on - year change of 0.37% [2]. Futures Market Data - The price of futures contract 05 is 1893, with a daily change of - 2.00, a weekly change of 55.50, a monthly change of 39.50, and a year - on - year change of - 7.82% [2]. - The price of futures contract 09 is 1974.5, with a daily change of 1.00, a weekly change of 57.00, a monthly change of 72.50, and a year - on - year change of - 6.31% [2]. - The price of futures contract 01 is 1764.5, with a daily change of - 1.00, a weekly change of 73.00, a monthly change of 39.00, and a year - on - year change of - 10.70% [2]. - The 05 basis is - 62.89, with a daily change of 60.72, a weekly change of 3.22, a monthly change of 61.82, and a year - on - year change of - 217.13 [2]. - The 09 basis is - 144.39, with a daily change of 57.72, a weekly change of 1.72, a monthly change of 28.82, and a year - on - year change of - 244.63 [2]. - The 01 basis is 65.61, with a daily change of 59.72, a weekly change of - 14.28, a monthly change of 62.32, and a year - on - year change of - 166.13 [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread is - 128.50, with a daily change of 1.00, a weekly change of 17.50, a monthly change of - 0.50, and a year - on - year change of - 51.00 [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread is - 81.50, with a daily change of - 3.00, a weekly change of - 1.50, a monthly change of - 33.00, and a year - on - year change of - 27.50 [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread is 210.00, with a daily change of 2.00, a weekly change of - 16.00, a monthly change of 33.50, and a year - on - year change of 78.50 [2].

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/28 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/21 | 57.24 | 61.32 | 63.34 | - | 0.29 | -4.08 | -0.05 | 182.53 | 15.34 | 220.58 | 31.32 | | 2025/10/22 | 58.50 | 62.59 | 63.86 | - | 0.36 | -4.09 | 0.00 | 186.50 | 15.74 | 224.96 | 31.89 | | 2025/10/23 | ...