Yong An Qi Huo
Search documents
LPG早报-20250811
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 04:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The overall LPG market is expected to fluctuate as the basis is strong, the futures valuation is low, and there is no fundamental driver [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Data - From August 4 - 8, 2025, the prices of South China LPG remained mostly stable at 4380 - 4390, East China liquefied gas slightly decreased from 4387 to 4403, and Shandong LPG remained at 4520 - 4530. Propane CFR South China increased from 540 to 555, propane CIF Japan fluctuated, MB propane fluctuated around 66 - 69, and CP forecast contract price increased from 521 to 522. Shandong ether - post carbon four increased from 4860 to 4910, and Shandong alkylation oil remained at 7830 - 7900. The paper import profit decreased from - 79 to - 207, and the main basis increased from 494 to 606. The daily change on August 8 showed that South China LPG was unchanged, East China liquefied gas decreased by 3, propane CFR South China increased by 5, MB propane increased by 1, CP forecast contract price increased by 4, Shandong ether - post carbon four increased by 50, and the paper import profit decreased by 39, and the main basis increased by 49 [1] 2. Market Conditions - On Friday, the cheapest deliverable was South China civil LPG at 4380. FEI decreased, CP increased. PP slightly decreased, the production profit of PP made from FEI improved, while the profit from CP slightly deteriorated, but the production cost of CP was lower than FEI. The PG futures weakened, and the monthly spread continued to weaken with the latest 09 - 10 at - 478 (- 10). The US - Far East arbitrage window opened [1] - The spot price center moved down, the cheapest deliverable was South China civil LPG at 4380. The PG futures trended weakly. The basis strengthened to 606 (+ 161). The inter - monthly reverse spread continued to strengthen with the 9 - 10 monthly spread at - 478 (- 39). The number of registered warehouse receipts was 10179 lots (+ 420), with 35 lots decreased in Qingdao Yunda and 455 lots increased in Wuchan Zhongda. The international market fundamentals were loose, FEI and CP fluctuated, and MB weakened. The North Asian - Middle Eastern oil - gas price ratio decreased, and the North American oil - gas price ratio slightly increased. The internal - external price difference decreased significantly, with PG - CP at 9.3 (- 21) and PG - FEI at - 2.5 (- 16). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 148 (+ 16) and from the Middle East to the Far East was 85 (+ 11). The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal increased, possibly due to the peak of container ship arrivals from the previous Sino - US tariff rush shipments, but it is expected to decrease next [1] 3. Weekly View - The naphtha crack spread strengthened. The spot profit of PDH weakened, while the paper profit continued to improve. The production gross profit of alkylation oil decreased. The gross profit of MTBE gas separation and etherification slightly increased, and the gross profit of isomerization etherification slightly decreased. Fundamentally, the unloading volume increased, the port inventory increased, the factory inventory decreased by 0.51%, and the commercial volume increased by 0.57%. The PDH operating rate was 73.84% (+ 1.21pct), with Tianjin Bohua resuming operation, Jiangsu Ruiheng restarting, but Binhua shutting down due to a fault for an expected 20 days. Wanda Tianhong is expected to restart next week [1]
永安期货有色早报-20250811
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 03:16
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on copper prices is bullish, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of long domestic and short overseas positions in the remaining time of the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, in the short - term, hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month inter - month and long domestic and short overseas positions; in the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases, and the overseas supply is the main variable, so pay attention to the actual demand [2]. - For zinc, in the short - term, it shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, so it is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of commodity sentiment; the long overseas and short domestic positions can continue to be held, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of inter - month long positions [5]. - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [8]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, and in the short - term, it follows the anti - involution expectation, so pay attention to the later policy direction [11]. - For lead, it is expected that battery factories will replenish stocks next week, and the center of lead prices will rise [12]. - For tin, it is recommended to short lightly at high prices in the short - term [13]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the supply and demand in August have turned to a balanced state, and in the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the price has a large upward elasticity, and in the long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, the price will still fluctuate at the low - level bottom [18]. Summary by Metal Copper - In the first half of the week, copper prices were supported around 78,000 yuan, and downstream pricing and stockpiling improved. In the second half of the week, with the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of overseas interest - rate cut expectations, copper prices were strong, trying to break through 79,000 yuan on Friday night [1]. - The downstream start - up and demand have support, the scrap - refined substitution effect works, the copper inventory accumulation trend is not strong, and there is no substantial negative in the overseas macro - level [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May due to aluminum ingot imports. In August, demand is in the seasonal off - season, with weak aluminum product exports, a decline in the photovoltaic sector, and some downstream production cuts. Overseas demand has declined significantly [2]. - In August, inventory is expected to continue to increase slightly. Supply increase is limited, demand is acceptable, and aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is small. Pay attention to the relaxation of the trade war [2]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the domestic TC has difficulty rising, and some scattered orders have decreased, while the imported TC is rising slowly. In August, the smelting increment is further realized [5]. - On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and most spot markets except Shanghai have turned to discounts. Overseas, European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees, with a slight increase in the spot premium [5]. - Domestic social inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory is declining rapidly, approaching the lowest level in nearly two years [5]. Nickel - On the supply side, the output of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. On the inventory side, the nickel plate inventory in both domestic and overseas markets remains stable [8]. - The short - term fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies [8]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills have passively reduced production, and some in the north are affected by the military parade. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand, and some inventory replenishment has increased due to the macro - environment [11]. - The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts remain stable [11]. Lead - This week, lead prices fell. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste batteries are in short supply due to the expansion of recycling plants, and the recycled lead maintains low - level operation. The concentrate supply has tightened, and the TC quotation is falling [12]. - On the demand side, the battery finished - product inventory is high, the battery start - up rate has increased slightly, and the market's expectation of the peak season has declined. The terminal consumption inventory reduction and lead ingot procurement are weak [12]. - The exchange inventory has reached a high of 70,000 tons, the recycled lead is holding prices, the refined - scrap price difference is +25, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 20, mainly for long - term contract supply [12]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore is at a low level, some domestic smelters have reduced production and are about to enter the maintenance period. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, but the recruitment is difficult, and the specific quantity depends on the August arrival [13]. - On the demand side, the demand for solder is inelastic, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaic is expected to decline. Domestic inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory is at a low level with the risk of a short squeeze [13]. - The supply of small - brand tin ingots is tight, and the exchange inventory is mainly high - priced Yun - brand tin, with low downstream提货 willingness [13]. Industrial Silicon - In the short - term, the resumption of production in Southwest China and Hesheng is stable, and the supply and demand in August have turned to a balanced state. If either reaches full production, the balance will quickly turn to surplus [16]. - In the long - term, the industrial silicon production capacity is still in serious surplus, the operating rate is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Currently, the core contradiction of lithium carbonate is the long - term over - capacity and the short - term resource - end compliance disturbance [18]. - With the approaching of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction after the production reduction of the smelter corresponding to CATL's mine, and the mine shutdown indicates strong policy strength, so the short - term price has large upward elasticity [18]. - In the long - term, if the resource - end risk is resolved, the over - capacity pattern remains, and the price will continue to fluctuate at the low - level bottom [18].
大类资产早报-20250811
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 02:38
1. Global Asset Market Performance 1.1 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 8, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.284%, 4.600%, 3.348% respectively. The latest changes were 0.033, 0.054, 0.053; weekly changes were 0.066, 0.074, 0.002; monthly changes were - 0.127, - 0.021, - 0.064; and annual changes were 0.252, 0.631, 0.337 [3]. 1.2 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - As of August 8, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany were 3.690, 3.896, 1.952 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.030, 0.023, 0.036; weekly changes were - 0.250, 0.107, 0.027; monthly changes were - 0.190, 0.045, 0.056; and annual changes were - 0.670, 0.090, - 0.573 [3]. 1.3 Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On August 8, 2025, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.435, with a latest change of 0.18%, a weekly change of - 1.94%, a monthly change of - 2.25%, and an annual change of - 3.82%. Similar data were provided for other currencies like the Russian ruble, South African rand, etc. [3]. 1.4 Stock Indices of Major Economies - On August 8, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq were 6389.450, 44175.610, 21450.020 respectively. The latest changes were 0.78%, 0.47%, 0.98%; weekly changes were 2.43%, 1.35%, 3.87%; monthly changes were 2.07%, - 0.44%, 4.20%; and annual changes were 15.70%, 8.16%, 21.88% [3]. 1.5 Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - area investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were - 0.24%, - 0.15%, etc.; weekly changes were - 0.12%, 0.08%, etc.; monthly changes were 1.45%, 0.45%, etc.; and annual changes were 5.06%, 4.83%, etc. [3][4] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 2.1 Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3635.13, 4104.97, 2789.17 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes were - 0.12%, - 0.24%, - 0.33% [5]. 2.2 Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.31, 11.47, 30.52 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02, - 0.02, - 0.06 [5]. 2.3 Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.59 and 2.68 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.06 and - 0.03 [5]. 2.4 Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, and SMEs were - 731.15, - 338.22, etc., and the 5 - day average values were - 266.18, - 179.38, etc. [5]. 2.5 Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 17102.27, 3085.08, 828.05 respectively, with环比 changes of - 1152.63, - 496.00, - 114.17 [5]. 2.6 Main Contract Basis and Spread - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 21.77, - 3.77, - 96.50 respectively, with spreads of - 0.53%, - 0.14%, - 1.53% [5] 3. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.640, 105.840, 108.535, 105.895 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.06%, 0.05%, 0.06%, 0.06% [6]. - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3413%, 1.4538%, 1.5544% respectively, with daily changes of - 14.00, - 3.00, - 1.00 [6]
永安合成橡胶早报-20250811
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 02:28
Report Overview - Report Title: "Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: August 11, 2025 [3] 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) 1.1 BR Main Contract Overview - Closing price of the main contract on August 8 was 11,515, down 20 from the previous day and up 60 week-on-week [4] - Open interest of the main contract on August 8 was 25,625, down 831 from the previous day and down 8,314 week-on-week [4] - Trading volume of the main contract on August 8 was 41,370, down 18,741 from the previous day [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on August 8 was 10,310, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 week-on-week [4] - Virtual-to-real ratio on August 8 was 12.43, unchanged from the previous day and down 4 week-on-week [4] 1.2 BR Price Structure - Shandong market price on August 8 was 11,600, up 50 from the previous day and unchanged week-on-week [4] - Chuanhua market price on August 8 was 11,450, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week-on-week [4] - Qilu ex-factory price on August 8 was 11,500, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 week-on-week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia on August 8 was 1,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 week-on-week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia on August 8 was 1,750, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week-on-week [4] 1.3 BR Processing and Import/Export - Spot processing profit on August 8 was -163, up 50 from the previous day and down 179 week-on-week [4] - Futures processing profit on August 8 was -248, down 20 from the previous day and down 119 week-on-week [4] - Import profit on August 8 was -82,233, up 47 from the previous day and up 2,840 week-on-week [4] - Export profit on August 8 was -332, down 43 from the previous day and down 222 week-on-week [4] 2. BD (Butadiene) 2.1 BD Price - Shandong market price on August 8 was 9,375, unchanged from the previous day and up 175 week-on-week [4] - Jiangsu market price on August 8 was 9,300, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 week-on-week [4] - Yangzi ex-factory price on August 8 was 9,400, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 week-on-week [4] - CFR China on August 8 was 1,080, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week-on-week [4] 2.2 BD Processing and Import/Export - Carbon four extraction profit data was not available on August 8 [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on August 8 was 206, unchanged from the previous day and up 30 week-on-week [4] - Import profit on August 8 was 386, unchanged from the previous day and up 137 week-on-week [4] - Export profit on August 8 was -1,060, unchanged from the previous day and down 45 week-on-week [4] 3. Downstream Profits - Butadiene rubber production profit on August 8 was -248, down 20 from the previous day and down 119 week-on-week [4] - Styrene-butadiene rubber production profit on August 8 was 550, unchanged from the previous day and down 350 week-on-week [4] - ABS production profit data was not available on August 8 [4] - SBS (791-H) production profit on August 8 was 960, unchanged from the previous day and down 140 week-on-week [4] 4. Price Spreads 4.1 Inter-variety Spreads - RU - BR on August 8 was -10,075, up 856 from the previous day and up 9,554 week-on-week [4] - NR - BR on August 8 was -13,220, up 886 from the previous day and up 8,544 week-on-week [4] - Thai mixed - Butadiene rubber on August 8 was 2,780, down 20 from the previous day and up 330 week-on-week [4] - 3L - Styrene-butadiene rubber on August 8 was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 week-on-week [4] 4.2 Intra-variety Spreads - Standard - non-standard Butadiene rubber price spread on August 8 was 250, up 50 from the previous day and unchanged week-on-week [4] - Styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 on August 8 was 1,050, down 50 from the previous day and down 100 week-on-week [4]
有色套利早报-20250811
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 02:03
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking of non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 11, 2025 [1][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 78,540 (domestic) and 9,639 (LME) with a ratio of 8.15; March price is 78,470 (domestic) and 9,709 (LME) with a ratio of 8.08. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17 with a profit of - 15.62 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,480 (domestic) and 2,815 (LME) with a ratio of 7.99; March price is 22,520 (domestic) and 2,815 (LME) with a ratio of 5.99. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.66 with a profit of - 1,883.64 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,650 (domestic) and 2,611 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91; March price is 20,650 (domestic) and 2,614 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.49 with a profit of - 1,513.68 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 119,850 (domestic) and 14,946 (LME) with a ratio of 8.02. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25 with a profit of - 1,763.36 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,700 (domestic) and 1,967 (LME) with a ratio of 8.50; March price is 16,850 (domestic) and 1,999 (LME) with a ratio of 11.26. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.85 with a profit of - 692.53 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 40, 20, 0, - 40 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 494, 887, 1288, 1689 [4]. - **Zinc**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 35, - 30, - 25, - 55 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 459, 581 [4]. - **Aluminum**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 65, - 100, - 140, - 190 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 446, 562 [4]. - **Lead**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 20, 25, 50, 60 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, 525 [4]. - **Nickel**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 470, - 310, - 130, 150 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: 5 - 1 spread is 710 with a theoretical spread of 5558 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 55 and - 15 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 155 and 596 [4]. - **Zinc**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 70 and 35 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 101 and 232 (also 114 and 228 mentioned) [4][5]. - **Lead**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 125 and 145 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 117 and 228 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.48, 3.80, 4.66, 0.92, 1.23, 0.75 in Shanghai (triple - continuous) and 3.45, 3.74, 4.86, 0.92, 1.30, 0.71 in London (triple - continuous) [5].
沥青早报-20250811
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 01:55
Report Overview - Report Title: "Asphalt Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team - Report Date: August 11, 2025 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - Not explicitly stated in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices - The prices of various BU asphalt futures contracts decreased from July 10 to August 8. For example, the BU main contract dropped from 3629 to 3478, a decrease of 181 [4]. 3.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume increased by 7967 on a daily basis and decreased by 26929 on a weekly basis to 241736 on August 8. The open interest increased by 5075 daily and decreased by 44962 weekly to 454594 [4]. 3.3 Spot Market Prices - Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline. For instance, the low - end price in the Shandong market decreased by 50 from July 10 to August 8, reaching 3550 [4]. 3.4 Basis and Calendar Spreads - The basis in different regions generally increased. For example, the Shandong basis increased from - 49 to 72, a rise of 131. Calendar spreads such as 06 - 09 and 09 - 12 also showed certain changes [4]. 3.5 Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt Brent crack spread increased from - 96 to 67, a rise of 130. The ordinary refinery's comprehensive profit increased from 420 to 506, an increase of 88 [4]. 3.6 Related Prices - Brent crude oil prices decreased from 70.2 to 66.4, a decrease of 3.2. The gasoline and diesel prices in the Shandong market also showed certain fluctuations [4].
铁矿石早报-20250811
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 00:52
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant content provided. Group 3: Summary of Spot Market - Newman powder's latest price is 767, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 4; its import profit is -31.77 [1] - PB powder's latest price is 770, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -11.03 [1] - Macfie powder's latest price is 760, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -2.67 [1] - Jinbuba powder's latest price is 742, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -3.08 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder's latest price is 697, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -12.10 [1] - Super special powder's latest price is 647, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -15.13 [1] - Carajás powder's latest price is 873, with a daily change of -7 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -48.05 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder's latest price is 809, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 19; its import profit is -3.21 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6's latest price is 760, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG's latest price is 765, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate's latest price is 865, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 9 [1] - 61% Indian powder's latest price is 731, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Karara concentrate's latest price is 865, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 10 [1] - Roy Hill powder's latest price is 740, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -5.37 [1] - KUMBA powder's latest price is 830, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - 57% Indian powder's latest price is 592, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Atlas powder's latest price is 692, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate's latest price is 958, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 31 [1] Group 4: Summary of Futures Market - i2601's latest price is 773.5, with a daily change of -1.0 and a weekly change of 16.5; its monthly spread is 16.5, with a daily change of -2.3 and a weekly change of -4.7 [1] - i2605's latest price is 753.0, with a daily change of 0.5 and a weekly change of 19.5; its monthly spread is 20.5, with a daily change of -3.8 and a weekly change of -7.7 [1] - i2509's latest price is 790.0, with a daily change of -3.0 and a weekly change of 7.0; its monthly spread is -37.0, with a daily change of -0.3 and a weekly change of 4.8 [1] - FE01's latest price is 102.06, with a daily change of 0.15 and a weekly change of 3.17; its monthly spread is 0.19, with a daily change of -3.9 and a weekly change of -2.5 [1] - FE05's latest price is 100.04, with a daily change of 0.18 and a weekly change of 3.13; its monthly spread is 2.02, with a daily change of -3.1 and a weekly change of -2.8 [1] - FE09's latest price is 102.25, with a daily change of 0.45 and a weekly change of 2.49; its monthly spread is -2.21, with a daily change of -4.8 and a weekly change of -4.0 [1]
玻璃纯碱早报-20250811
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 00:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint - No explicit core viewpoint presented in the given text 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Price and Contract Information - From August 1 to August 8, 2025, the prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in Wuhan Changli decreased by 40.0, and the FG09 contract price decreased by 39.0 [2]. - The FG9 - 1 spread changed from - 122.0 on August 1 to - 133.0 on August 8, with a weekly change of - 11.0 and a daily change of 11.0 [2]. Profit and Cost - From August 1 to August 8, 2025, the profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased by 55.4, and the cost decreased by 2.8. The profit of South China natural gas glass remained unchanged at - 129.1, and the profit of North China natural gas glass decreased by 46.8 [2]. Spot and Sales - The sales of glass factories in Shahe were average, with the low - price of traders around 1150 and the sales volume average. The price of factories in Hubei was around 1060, and the sales of glass in different regions were as follows: Shahe 82, Hubei 79, East China 91, and South China 89 [2]. Soda Ash Price and Contract Information - From August 1 to August 8, 2025, the prices of heavy soda ash in different regions changed. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Central China decreased by 60.0, and the SA05 contract price increased by 13.0 [2]. - The SA09 - 01 spread changed from - 77.0 on August 1 to - 83.0 on August 8, with a weekly change of - 6.0 and a daily change of 7.0 [2]. Profit and Cost - From August 1 to August 8, 2025, the profit of North China ammonia - soda process decreased by 33.1, and the profit of North China combined - soda process increased by 11.0 [2]. Spot and Industry - The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1200, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1240. Downstream customers purchased on a low - price and just - in - time basis, and the futures - spot trading volume was average. The factory inventory of soda ash increased, and the delivery warehouse inventory increased significantly [2].
农产品早报-20250811
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 00:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Corn**: In the short - term, with reserve auctions and new - season corn approaching, the market is slightly oversupplied and prices may weaken, but the downside is limited. In the long - term, import orders may increase, and new - season supply growth may pressure prices [3]. - **Starch**: In the short - term, it will continue to oscillate weakly due to high inventories and raw material price fluctuations. In the long - term, high inventories and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [3]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, Brazilian supply pressure weighs on prices, but there may be a rebound. Domestically, with a large amount of imported sugar arriving, the futures price faces upward pressure [6]. - **Cotton**: It has entered an oscillating phase, and without major macro - risks, the price downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [9]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices rebounded due to supply - demand resonance, then回调. From mid - August, demand may drive prices up again, but high inventory may limit the increase [10]. - **Apples**: The new - season output may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low, with recent price stability [13]. - **Pigs**: The short - term spot price is weakly oscillating. There is still supply pressure in the medium - term, but there are policy expectations in the long - term. Futures prices need spot verification [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn/Starch - **Price Changes**: From August 4 - 8, corn prices in some regions decreased slightly, and starch prices had no significant change. The corn basis increased by 12, and the starch processing profit increased by 1 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Reserve auctions eased the market atmosphere, and new - season corn is approaching. Starch inventories are high, and production is still loss - making [3]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: From August 4 - 8, spot prices in some regions decreased, the basis increased by 74, and the import profit decreased by 89. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 70 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazilian supply pressure affects international prices, and a large amount of imported sugar will arrive in China, pressuring the futures price [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Changes**: From August 4 - 8, the cotton price decreased by 30, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 95. The 32S spinning profit increased by 31 [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton has entered an oscillating phase, and the price downside is limited without major macro - risks [9]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: From August 4 - 8, the egg price in some regions was stable, the basis decreased by 39, and the price of some substitutes was stable [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded and then回调. From mid - August, demand may drive prices up, but high inventory may limit the increase [10]. Apples - **Price Changes**: From August 4 - 8, the apple spot price was stable, and the basis decreased significantly [12][13]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season output may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low, with recent price stability [13]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: From August 4 - 8, the pig price in some regions decreased, and the basis decreased by 180 [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term spot price is weakly oscillating. There is still supply pressure in the medium - term, but there are policy expectations in the long - term. Futures prices need spot verification [13].
波动率数据日报-20250808
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 05:15
Group 1: Introduction to Volatility Data - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [2] Group 2: Volatility Index Charts - Charts show the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options like silver, soybean meal, corn, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means high current IV, and a low quantile means low current IV. Volatility spread refers to the difference between the IV index and historical volatility [4] - Quantile rankings are provided for different options such as PVC, PTA, 50ETF, 300 - stock index, etc [5]