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波动率数据日报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 11:23
Group 1: Explanation of Volatility Metrics - Financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. Commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the upper and lower two - strike options of the at - the - money option of the main contract month, showing the IV change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher than HV, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower [2] Group 2: Volatility Data Visualization - There are charts showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences of various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options like silver, gold, soybean meal, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Quantiles - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current IV level of a variety in history. High quantiles mean the current IV is high, and low quantiles mean it is low. The data shows the implied and historical volatility quantiles of different options such as 50ETF, PTA, 300 - stock index, etc [4][5]
永安期货集运早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 04:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, with ships being launched successively. Overall, shipping companies have a high degree of maneuverability in reducing speed and suspending voyages; December - January is the long - term contract signing season. Meanwhile, the economy in Northwest Europe is deteriorating. It is not recommended to chase high prices, and short - term volatile operation is expected. The current valuation of the 04 contract is high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - selling in the short term. Attention should be paid to the low liquidity, which may cause short - term susceptibility to disturbances. Contracts 12 and 02 already have high valuations [3][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **EC Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 on the previous day were 1139.0, 1777.0, 1685.0, 1268.6, and 1483.5 respectively, with changes of - 2.90%, - 0.34%, - 0.66%, - 1.23%, and 0.08%. The trading volumes were 22035, 19314, 6466, 1657, and 97 respectively, and the open interests were 32431, 21695, 8768, 9099, and 938 respectively, with changes of - 3095, - 1300, 0, 142, and - 14 respectively [2][30] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512 were - 638.0, - 610.1, and - 582.1 for the previous day, two days ago, and three days ago respectively, with a daily change of - 27.9. The spreads of EC2512 - 2602 were 92.0, 86.9, and 108.4 for the previous day, two days ago, and three days ago respectively, with a daily change of 5.1 [2][30] Spot Index Information - **SCF**: Updated every Monday, as of September 22, 2025, it was 1254.92 points, showing a decline of 12.87% compared to the previous period and 8.06% compared to the period before the previous one [2][30] - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated every ninth day of the week, as of September 26, 2025, it was 1401.91 points, showing a decline of 4.69% compared to the previous period [2][30] - **NCFI**: Updated every ninth day of the week, as of September 26, 2025, it was 614.14 points, showing a decline of 8.85% compared to the previous period [2][30] Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 39**: The average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quoted 1500 US dollars (later increased to 1570), PA Alliance quoted between 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and OA Alliance quoted between 1600 - 1720 US dollars [4][32] - **Weeks 40 - 41**: The average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quoted 1400 US dollars, PA quoted between 1300 - 1500 US dollars, YML quoted 1300 US dollars (the lowest price of the year), and OA quoted between 1400 - 1600 US dollars [4][32] - **Week 42**: MSK opened the cabin with a quotation of 1800 US dollars (a month - on - month increase of 400). Other shipping companies successively announced price increases to 2000 US dollars after the holiday [4][32] News - On September 29, Trump claimed that the Middle East peace agreement "will surely be reached." He was optimistic about reaching a cease - fire agreement in Gaza and would meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday to finalize the agreement framework. - On September 28, Hamas stated that it had not received a new cease - fire proposal, and the Palestine - Israel negotiations were at an impasse. - On September 28, the Israeli Defense Minister stated that the military operations in the Gaza Strip would not stop [4][32]
集运早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:52
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers including multiple price increase announcements, high operational space for shipping companies such as speed reduction and suspension of voyages, and the long - term agreement signing season from December to January. However, the economies in Northwest Europe are deteriorating and new ships are being launched successively. Overall, the valuations of contracts 12 and 02 are already high, and it is not recommended to chase the high prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Contract 04 currently has a high valuation, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - selling in the short term, but attention should be paid to the low liquidity which may cause short - term fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Information - For EC2510, the closing price was 1139.0, with a decline of 2.90%, a basis of 115.9, trading volume of 22035, and open interest of 32431 with a decrease of 3095 [1] - For EC2512, the closing price was 1777.0, a decline of 0.34%, a basis of - 522.1, trading volume of 19314, and open interest of 21695 with a decrease of 1300 [1] - For EC2602, the closing price was 1685.0, a decline of 0.66%, a basis of - 430.1, trading volume of 6466, and open interest of 8768 [1] - For EC2604, the closing price was 1268.6, a decline of 1.28%, a basis of - 13.7, trading volume of 1657, and open interest of 9099 with an increase of 142 [1] - For EC2606, the closing price was 1483.5, an increase of 0.08%, a basis of - 228.6, trading volume of 97, and open interest of 938 with a decrease of 14 [1] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 638.0, with a day - on - day decrease of 27.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 77.8 [1] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 92.0, with a day - on - day increase of 5.1 and a week - on - week increase of 11.7 [1] 3.2 Spot Index Information - The SCHIS SCFI (European line) index was 1254.92 points on September 22, 2025, a decrease of 12.87% from the previous period and 8.06% from two periods ago. The price was 971 dollars/TEU on September 26, 2025, a decrease of 7.70% from the previous period and 8.84% from two periods ago [1] - The CCFI index was 1401.91 points on September 26, 2025, a decrease of 4.69% from the previous period and 4.31% from two periods ago [1] - The NCFI index was 614.14 points on September 26, 2025, a decrease of 8.83% from the previous period and 7.65% from two periods ago [1] 3.3 European Line Quotation Situation - For week 39 (end of September), the average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK quoted 1500 US dollars (later increased to 1570), PA Alliance quoted 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and OA Alliance quoted 1600 - 1720 US dollars [3] - For weeks 40 - 41 (beginning of October), the average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK quoted 1400 US dollars, PA quoted 1300 - 1500 US dollars (YML's 1300 US dollars was the lowest price of the year), and OA quoted 1400 - 1600 US dollars [3] - For week 42, MSK's opening quotation was 1800 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous period), and other shipping companies successively announced post - holiday price increases to 2000 US dollars [3] 3.4 Related News - On September 29, Trump claimed that the Middle East peace agreement "will surely be reached". He will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday to finalize the agreement framework [4] - On September 28, Hamas stated that it had not received a new cease - fire proposal, and the Israel - Palestine negotiations were at an impasse [4] - On September 28, the Israeli Defense Minister said that it would not stop military operations in the Gaza Strip [4]
沥青早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:36
1. Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [3] 2. Core Data Summary Futures Contracts - **Prices**: For BU10, the price on August 28 was 3517, and on September 26 it was 3450, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 23. Similar data is provided for other contracts like BU11, BU12, etc. [4] - **Volume and Open Interest**: On September 26, the trading volume was 348,568, an increase of 72,570 from the previous day and 137,960 from the previous week. The open interest was 366,558, a decrease of 28,019 from the previous day and 42,198 from the previous week [4]. Spot Prices - **Regional Market Prices**: The Shandong market price remained at 3500 from September 24 - 26, with no daily change and a -20 change from the previous week. The East China market price was stable at 3560 during the same period, with no daily change and a -30 change from the previous week. Other regions like South China, North China, and Northeast China also had their respective price data [4]. - **Warehouse Prices**: The Zhenjiang warehouse price increased from 3420 on September 24 to 3490 on September 26, a daily increase of 70 and a weekly increase of 20. The Foshan warehouse price remained at 3450 during the same period, with no daily change and a -20 change from the previous week [4]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The Shandong basis (+80) decreased from 168 on September 24 to 100 on September 26, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 43. The East China basis increased from -20 on September 25 to 40 on September 26, a daily increase of 60 and a -3 change from the previous week [4]. - **Spread**: The 10 - 11 spread decreased from 20 on September 25 to 19 on September 26, a daily decrease of 1 and a 10 change from the previous week. Other spreads like 10 - 12, 11 - 12, etc., also had their respective changes [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - **Crack Spread**: The asphalt Brent crack spread decreased from -109 on September 25 to -116 on September 26, a daily decrease of 7 and a -174 change from the previous week [4]. - **Profit**: The asphalt Ma Rui profit decreased from -166 on September 25 to -172 on September 26, a daily decrease of 6 and a -157 change from the previous week. Other profit indicators like the general refinery comprehensive profit, Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit, etc., also had their respective changes [4]. Other Related Prices - **Crude Oil Price**: The Brent crude oil price increased from 69.3 on September 25 to 69.4 on September 26, a daily increase of 0.1 and a 2.7 increase from the previous week [4]. - **Refined Product Prices**: The Shandong market price of gasoline decreased from 7517 on September 25 to 7513 on September 26, a daily decrease of 4 and a 2 change from the previous week. The Shandong market price of diesel decreased from 6467 on September 25 to 6466 on September 26, a daily decrease of 1 and a 37 change from the previous week [4][5].
合成橡胶早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:36
Report Overview - The report is titled "Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" and is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated September 29, 2025 [2] Key Data Summary 1. BR Main Contract - Closing price: 11,445 on September 19, decreased by 115 from September 26 and 15 from the previous week [3] - Open interest: 75,259 on September 19, decreased by 11,063 from September 26 and 35,168 from the previous week [3] - Trading volume: 94,561 on September 19, increased by 108,069 from September 26 and 97,193 from the previous week [3] - Warehouse receipts: 10,230 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and decreased by 980 from the previous week [3] - Reality-to-virtual ratio: 36.78 on September 19, decreased by 6 from September 26 and 15 from the previous week [3] 2. Basis and Spread - Butadiene basis: 690 on September 19, decreased by 35 from September 26 and 85 from the previous week [3] - 10 - 11 month spread: 70 on September 19, increased by 20 from September 26 and decreased by 35 from the previous week [3] - 11 - 12 month spread: 5 on September 19, increased by 10 from September 26 [3] 3. Market Prices - Shandong market price: 11,600 on September 19, decreased by 30 from September 26 and 50 from the previous week [3] - Chuanhua market price: 11,450 on September 19, decreased by 50 from September 26 [3] - Qilu ex - factory price: 11,700 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and the previous week [3] - CFR Northeast Asia: 1,525 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and decreased by 25 from the previous week [3] - CFR Southeast Asia: 1,700 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and the previous week [3] 4. Processing and Profit - Spot processing profit: - 290 on September 19, increased by 138 from September 26 and 307 from the previous week [3] - Futures processing profit: - 445 on September 19, increased by 53 from September 26 and 342 from the previous week [3] - Import profit: - 82,977 on September 19, decreased by 49 from September 26 and 309 from the previous week [3] - Export profit: 111 on September 19, increased by 29 from September 26 and decreased by 106 from the previous week [3] 5. Downstream and Inter - variety Spreads - Butadiene styrene production profit: 963 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and increased by 100 from the previous week [3] - ABS production profit: 106 on September 19 [3] - SBS production profit (791 - H): 885 on September 19 [3] - RU - BR spread: - 59,724 on September 19, increased by 10,963 from September 26 and 35,103 from the previous week [3] - NR - BR spread: - 62,959 on September 19, increased by 11,068 from September 26 and 35,303 from the previous week [3] - Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread: 3,130 on September 19, increased by 30 from September 26 and 170 from the previous week [3] - 3L - butadiene styrene spread: 3,050 on September 19, increased by 100 from September 26 and 150 from the previous week [3] - Cis - butadiene standard - non - standard spread: 200 on September 19, increased by 70 from September 26 and 50 from the previous week [3] - Butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 spread: 1,000 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and the previous week [3]
永安期货钢材早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No relevant information provided 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Profit - The report provides the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from September 22 to September 26, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. For example, the price of Beijing's rebar decreased from 3210 to 3160, a change of -20; the price of Tianjin's hot - rolled coil decreased from 3370 to 3290, a change of -20 [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - No relevant information provided 3.3 Output and Inventory - No relevant information provided
原油成品油早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices strengthened again, with Brent crude closing above $68 per barrel. The month - spreads of Brent and WTI crude rebounded, while that of Dubai declined. The fundamentals of crude oil and geopolitical sanctions risks are diverging. There are sanctions on Iran and Russia, and the preliminary data in September shows a 4% month - on - month decline in Russia's crude exports compared to the same period in history. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have slightly decreased, and the absolute level is similar to that in 2019 and at a five - year high. OPEC's net crude oil exports have rebounded significantly. The resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase Iraq's exports. The US EIA commercial crude inventory has decreased, along with gasoline and diesel. Global refinery profits have rebounded again, with domestic refinery operations showing a decline in major refineries and an increase in local refineries, and a decline in refinery operations in Europe and the US. Under the baseline scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of crude oil, and an expected surplus of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The market is currently trading around sanctions and risk - premium concerns, and short - covering affects the market performance. Attention should be paid to risks before the National Day holiday [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price and Spread Data - From September 22 to September 26, 2025, WTI crude oil rose from $62.28 to $65.72, an increase of $0.74; Brent rose from $66.57 to $70.13, an increase of $0.71; Dubai decreased from $69.74 to $70.17, a decrease of $0.02. The 2 - month spread of Brent increased from $0.60 to $0.91, an increase of $0.07; the WTI - Brent spread increased from - $4.29 to - $4.41, an increase of $0.03; the Dubai - Brent spread increased from $0.52 to $0.66, an increase of $0.05 [3] - The price of SC increased by $0.70, Oman decreased by $0.09, the SC - Brent spread decreased by $0.64, and the SC - WTI spread decreased by $0.67. Domestic gasoline prices remained unchanged, and the domestic gasoline - Brent spread decreased by $44. Domestic diesel prices decreased by $4, and the domestic diesel - Brent spread decreased by $43 [3] - Japanese naphtha CFR decreased by $5.72 compared to Brent, Singapore fuel oil 380CST premium increased by $0.1, and the Singapore 380 - Brent spread increased by $0.48. The main contract of SHFE FU increased by 31 compared to Brent, the decrease was $1.06; the main contract of SHFE BU increased by 10, and the SHFE BU - Brent spread decreased by $4.05. HH natural gas increased by $0.100, and BFO increased by $1.27 [3] 3.2 Daily News - OPEC+ may approve an increase in oil production by at least 137,000 barrels per day at the October meeting as rising oil prices encourage the organization to regain market share. OPEC+ has changed its production - cut strategy since April and has increased the quota by more than 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global oil demand [3] - The substitution ratio of LNG and new energy for diesel consumption exceeds 20%. The sales of LNG and new energy heavy - duty trucks increased year - on - year, with a substitution of 3.86 million tons of diesel, accounting for 20.2%. In August, the terminal consumption of diesel was weak, and the substitution effect of new energy and LNG heavy - duty trucks on diesel consumption in logistics is steadily increasing [4] - The resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase Iraq's crude oil exports to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the next few days, and its production and exports will remain within OPEC's quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [4] - The total number of US oil drilling rigs in the week ending September 26 was 424, up from 418 in the previous week [4] - The arbitrage window for US crude oil exports to Asia may close due to soaring tanker freight rates, lower Middle - East crude oil prices, and the closer geographical location of the Middle East to major global demand regions [5] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending September 19, US crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels to 13.501 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 0.15%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.466 million barrels per day, a 0.94% increase year - on - year; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 803,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [6] - From September 12 to September 18, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated, and that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic production of gasoline and diesel increased, and inventories of both increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated and strengthened, while that of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6]
大类资产早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:00
Report Date - The report was released on September 29, 2025 [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 26, 2025, yields in countries like the US were 4.176%, UK 4.745%, etc. Changes varied across different time - frames (latest, one - week, one - month, one - year). For example, the US had a latest change of 0.005, a one - week change of 0.048, a one - month change of - 0.054, and a one - year change of 0.434 [2] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 26, 2025, yields such as the US at 3.570, UK at 4.009, etc. had different changes over different periods. For instance, the US had a latest change of 0.040, a one - week change of 0.050, a one - month change of 0.030, and a one - year change of - 0.040 [2] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On September 26, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real rate was 5.344 with a latest change of - 0.37%. Rates against other currencies also had various changes over different time - spans [2] RMB Data - On September 26, 2025, on - shore RMB was 7.135, off - shore RMB was 7.144, the mid - price was 7.115, and the 12 - month NDF was 6.994. Each had different percentage changes over different periods [2] Major Economies' Stock Indexes - On September 26, 2025, the S&P 500 was 6643.700, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was 46247.290, etc. Indexes had different latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes. For example, the S&P 500 had a latest change of 0.59%, a one - week change of - 0.31%, a one - month change of 2.84%, and a one - year change of 16.50% [2] Credit Bond Indexes - Different credit bond indexes (US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, etc.) had different latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.06%, a one - week change of - 0.40%, a one - month change of 1.22%, and a one - year change of 3.16% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. had corresponding percentage changes. For example, A - shares closed at 3828.11 with a - 0.65% change [4] Valuation - PE (TTM) and its环比 changes were provided for indexes like CSI 300, S&P 500, etc. For example, the CSI 300 had a PE (TTM) of 14.04 with a - 0.09环比 change [4] Risk Premium - Risk premium data and its环比 changes were given for some indexes. For example, the S&P 500 had a 1/PE - 10 rate of - 0.56 with a - 0.03环比 change [4] Fund Flows - Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for different indexes were presented. For example, A - shares had a latest fund flow of - 1188.84 and a 5 - day average of - 537.15 [4] Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes and环比 changes were provided for different markets. For example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a latest trading volume of 21468.85 with a - 2242.05环比 change [4] Main Contract Premium or Discount - Basis and percentage changes were given for futures contracts like IF, IH, IC. For example, IF had a basis of - 25.05 and a - 0.55% change [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and percentage changes were provided for treasury bond futures like T00, TF00, etc. For example, T00 closed at 107.680 with a - 0.04% change [5] - Funding rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes were presented. For example, R001 was 1.3344% with a - 47.00 BP daily change [5]
铁矿石早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 01:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - No core viewpoint is presented in the report. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various iron ore varieties showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of Newman powder decreased by 12 yuan per ton compared to the previous day and 15 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [3]. - **Import Profits**: The import profits of different varieties also varied. The import profit of mixed powder was 18.16 yuan per ton, while that of PB powder was -10.59 yuan per ton [3]. Futures Market - **Price Movements**: The prices of iron ore futures contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) and the Singapore Exchange (SGX) generally declined. For instance, the price of the i2601 contract on the DCE decreased by 15.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day and 17.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The monthly spreads between different contracts also changed. The spread between i2601 and i2605 increased by 4.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day and 6.4 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [3].
有色套利早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 01:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on September 29, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 29, 2025, the domestic spot price was 82,480, the LME price was 10,233, and the ratio was 8.08. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.12, with a profit of - 652.74, and the profit for spot export was 134.27. The three - month domestic price was 82,480, the LME price was 10,272, and the ratio was 8.04 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21,950, the LME price was 2,957, and the ratio was 7.42. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.55, with a profit of - 3,338.99. The three - month domestic price was 21,995, the LME price was 2,918, and the ratio was 5.85 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,770, the LME price was 2,651, and the ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.40, with a profit of - 1,511.91. The three - month domestic price was 20,755, the LME price was 2,656, and the ratio was 7.82 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,900, the LME price was 1,964, and the ratio was 8.62. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.84, with a profit of - 437.61. The three - month domestic price was 17,125, the LME price was 2,006, and the ratio was 10.99 [3] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120,550, the LME price was 15,043, and the ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.20, with a profit of - 2,042.46 [1] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 190, - 180, - 240, and - 260 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 515, 929, 1351, and 1773 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 50, - 35, - 5, and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 451, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 15, - 5, - 5, and 0, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 446, and 562 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 50, 65, 80, and 65, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 1300, - 1080, - 920, and - 670 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 310, and the theoretical spread was 5680 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 210 and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 383 and 811 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 80 and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 151 and 279 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 160 and 210, and the theoretical spreads were 167 and 280 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.75, 3.97, 4.82, 0.94, 1.21, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.52, 3.83, 5.08, 0.92, 1.33, and 0.69 respectively [5]