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永安期货集运早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 07:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, downstream businesses are booking shipping space for the end of August and early September (week 35 - 36). The average final potential price in week 35 is $2,550 (1,800 points), and the current average quote in week 36 is $2,300. Most shipping companies face pressure to accept cargo at the end of the month. [1][5] - The overall shipping capacity in September has been adjusted downward, but on August 26th, the cancelled sailings of PA Alliance's FE4 route in week 38 of September were filled by HMM AOUAMARINE, increasing the average weekly shipping capacity in September to 305,000 TEU. [1][5] - Fundamentally, the shipping capacity in September is generally ample, and the subsequent market drivers remain weak. However, the valuation in October has gradually approached the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downward space. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the December contract. [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Information | Contract | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change (%) | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Yesterday's Open Interest | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2510 | 1,316.0 | -0.22 | 674.2 | 18,011 | | EC2512 | 1,620.5 | -1.94 | 5,472 | - | | EC2602 | 1,440.8 | - | 549.4 | 4,558 | | EC2604 | 1,248.8 | -1.91 | 974 | 6,242 | | EC2606 | 1,405.7 | -0.77 | 584.5 | 88 | [1][5] Spot Index Information | Index | Update Frequency | Current Value | Previous Value | Previous Two - Period Value | Current Change | Previous Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SCEIS | Weekly | 2,180.17 | 2,235.48 | - | -8.71% | -2.47% | | SCEI (European Line) | Every Friday | 1,668 | 1,820 | 1,961 | -8.35% | -7.19% | | CCFI | Weekly | 1,757.74 | 1,790.47 | 1,799.05 | -1.83% | -0.48% | | NCFI | Every Friday | 1,083.74 | 1,257.71 | 1,188.69 | -8.83% | -5.49% | [1][5] Recent European Line Quote Information - Week 36: The latest quotes from shipping companies range from $2,120 to $2,420, with an average of $2,250 (1,550 points). PA Alliance quotes $2,200 - $2,300, MSK initially quoted $2,100 (later increased to $2,200), and OA Alliance quotes $2,300 - $2,400. [1][5] - Week 37: The current average quote is $2,200 (1,500 points). MSK opened with a quote of $1,900 (1,300 points), most of PA Alliance and OA Alliance have not adjusted their prices, and OOCL has lowered its quote to $2,100. [1][5] News - On August 23rd, US President Trump announced a major tariff investigation on imported furniture, to be completed within the next 50 days, with the tariff rate yet to be determined. [1][5] - On August 26th, Trump threatened to impose up to 200% tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US if the export of rare - earth magnets is restricted. [1][5] - On August 28th, the Israeli military chief of staff stated that the Israeli army is advancing ground operations in Gaza City. [1][5]
集运早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 06:33
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoint The overall pattern in September is loose, and the subsequent driving force remains weak. However, the valuation in October is gradually approaching the annual low (1250 - 1300), leaving limited downside potential. Investors can focus on the long - allocation opportunities of the 12 - contract [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1316.0, 1620.5, 1440.8, 1248.8, and 1405.7 respectively, with price declines of - 0.22%, - 1.42%, - 1.94%, - 1.91%, and - 0.77% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 18011, 5472, 771, 974, and 88 respectively. The open interests are 53725, 14317, 4558, 6242, and 873 respectively, with changes of - 684, 447, 54, 306, and 5 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 have changed. The spread of EC2510 - 2512 has a day - on - day increase of 20.5 and a week - on - week increase of 91.9. The spread of EC2512 - 2602 has a day - on - day increase of 5.1 and a week - on - week decrease of - 28.7 [1]. Spot Market - **SCFI (European Line)**: As of August 25, 2025, the index is 1990.2, a decrease of 8.71% from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI**: As of August 22, 2025, the index is 1757.74, a decrease of 1.83% from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: As of August 22, 2025, the index is 1083.74, a decrease of 8.83% from the previous period [1]. Booking Situation - **Week 35 - 36**: Downstream is booking spaces for the end of August to early September. The average price for Week 35 is 2550 US dollars (1800 points), and the current average quote for Week 36 is 2300 US dollars (1600 points). PA Alliance quotes 2200 - 2300 US dollars, MSK quotes 2100 US dollars (later increased to 2200 US dollars), and OA Alliance quotes 2300 - 2400 US dollars [1]. - **Week 36 - 37**: For Week 36, the latest quotes from shipping companies range from 2120 to 2420 US dollars, with an average of 2250 US dollars (1550 points). For Week 37, the latest average quote is 2200 US dollars (1500 points), with MSK's opening quote at 1900 US dollars (1300 points), and OOCL reducing the price to 2100 US dollars [2]. Shipping Capacity - The weekly average shipping capacity in September and October 2025 is 300,000 and 320,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended, it is 290,000 TEU for both months. However, on August 26, the suspension of the FE4 route of PA Alliance in Week 38 of September was filled by HMM AOUAMARINE, increasing the weekly average shipping capacity in September to 305,000 TEU [1]. Related News - On August 23, 2025, US President Trump announced a major tariff investigation on imported furniture, to be completed within 50 days [3]. - On August 26, 2025, Trump threatened to impose up to 200% tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US if the export of rare - earth magnets is restricted [3]. - On August 28, 2025, the Israeli military chief of staff stated that the Israeli army is advancing ground operations in Gaza City [3].
大类资产早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 05:02
Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 27, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.235%, 4.735%, 3.517% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.069% (Japan) to 0.076% (China), with weekly, monthly, and annual changes also varying across countries [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 27, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.730%, 3.960%, 1.912% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.023% (Germany) to 0.050% (US), with different weekly, monthly, and annual changes [3]. US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On August 27, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc. had latest changes from - 0.25% (Brazil) to 0.39% (Malaysian ringgit), with varying weekly, monthly, and annual changes [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - On August 27, 2025, the closing prices of major stock indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc. were reported. The latest changes ranged from - 1.76% (Shanghai Composite Index) to 0.89% (Mexican stock index), with different weekly, monthly, and annual changes [3]. Credit Bond Indices - The latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of credit bond indices such as US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, etc. were presented, with the latest changes ranging from - 0.02% (emerging - market high - yield) to 0.12% (euro - zone investment - grade) [3][4]. Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures - The closing prices, price changes, valuations, risk premiums, fund flows, trading volumes, and basis spreads of A - share, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were reported. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4386.13 with a - 1.49% change [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The closing prices and price changes of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were reported, with prices of 108.200, 105.660, 108.020, 105.590 respectively and price changes of 0.04%, 0.02%, 0.04%, 0.03% [6]. Other Information - The report was released by the macro team of the research center on August 28, 2025 [2] - The report also mentioned the performance of the domestic and foreign currency markets, bond markets, stock markets, and exchange - rate markets [7][8]
永安期货纸浆早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 03:32
Report Overview - The report is a pulp morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on August 28, 2025 [2] SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on August 27, 2025, was 5010.00 [3] - The closing prices on August 26, 25, 22, and 21 were 5070.00, 5136.00, 5108.00, and 5130.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding US dollar - converted prices were 610.38, 617.80, 626.87, 620.90, and 623.85 respectively [3] - The daily price changes were -1.18343%, -1.28505%, 0.54816%, -0.42885%, and -0.11682% respectively [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis on August 27 was 725, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 765 [3] Import Profit Information - Calculated with a 13% VAT and an exchange rate of 7.16 on the previous day, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion pulp was -30.82, for Canadian Lion pulp was -476.28, and for Chilean Yinxing pulp was -160.38 [4] Price and Margin Information - From August 21 to 27, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the Shandong regional average prices [4] - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and living paper (living index) also remained unchanged during this period [4] - However, the estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and living paper changed by 0.1814, 0.1602, 0.1358, and 0.1719 respectively from August 22 to 27 [4] Price Difference Information - On August 27, 2025, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper were 1560.00, 335, 1910, and 4159 respectively [4]
永安期货贵金属早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 03:32
Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3376.35, with a change of 9.25 [1] - London Silver latest price is 38.22, with a change of -0.20 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1350.00, with a change of 0.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1091.00, with a change of 0.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 64.15, with a change of 0.90 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 9818.00, with a change of 13.00 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 98.24, with a change of 0.00 [14] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.16, with a change of 0.00 [14] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.35, with a change of 0.00 [14] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 147.43, with a change of 0.00 [14] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.84, with a change of 0.00 [14] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 15824.77, with a change of 0.00 [2] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 1165.50, with a change of 38.17 [2] - Gold ETF holdings latest is 962.50, with a change of 2.58 [2] - Silver ETF holdings latest is 15274.70, with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE Silver inventory latest is 1304.46, with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 1, with a change of -1.00 [2] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, with a change of 1.00 [2]
永安期货钢材早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 03:32
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report Core View No relevant information provided. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from August 21 to August 27, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, and other locations for both threaded steel and hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils. For example, the price of Beijing threaded steel remained unchanged at 3220 on August 27 compared to the previous period, while the price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil decreased by 20 to 3360. [1] Basis and Spread No relevant information provided. Production and Inventory No relevant information provided.
永安期货燃料油早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 03:31
Report Information - Report Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst weakened, and the near-month spread weakened. The low-sulfur cracking weakened, and the spread fluctuated. The high-sulfur global supply and demand weakened, but the EW spread was still being repaired. The new round of sanctions had a large potential impact on domestic heavy crude oil and provided some support for Asian fuel oil valuations. The LU remained weak this week, and short-term opportunities for the expansion of high-sulfur 380 EW could still be monitored. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 21 to August 27, 2025, prices of various fuel oil products in Rotterdam, such as 3.5% HSF O swap M1, 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, etc., showed different degrees of change. For example, the 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 1.71, and the 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 5.01. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During the same period, prices of Singapore fuel oil products, including 380cst M1, 180cst M1, etc., also changed. For instance, the 380cst M1 increased slightly, and the Singapore VLSFO M1 increased to 490.00 on August 27 from 479.93 on August 21. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From August 21 to August 27, 2025, prices of Singapore fuel oil spot products, like FOB 380cst and FOB VLSFO, changed. The FOB 380cst decreased by 0.91, and the FOB VLSFO decreased by 3.94. The 380 basis increased by 3.50. [4] Domestic FU Data - Domestic FU contract prices (FU 01, FU 05, FU 09) changed, with the FU 01 decreasing by 52, the FU 05 decreasing by 51, and the FU 09 decreasing by 64 from August 21 to August 27, 2025. [4] Domestic LU Data - Domestic LU contract prices (LU 01, LU 05, LU 09) also changed. The LU 01 decreased by 44, the LU 05 decreased by 43, and the LU 09 decreased by 42 during the same period. [5] Inventory and Supply Information - Singapore's land-based residue inventory continued to decline, floating storage inventory decreased significantly, and low-sulfur floating storage increased. In July, Singapore's high-sulfur bunker fueling volume increased by 15% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year. Middle East's Fujairah land-based inventory decreased significantly, and floating storage decreased significantly. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased week-on-week, and UAE's shipments fluctuated. US residue inventory increased slightly but was at the lowest level in the same period in history. ARA ports decreased slightly, and floating storage increased slightly. [6]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 03:31
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given doc [1][2][7]. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Coastal inventories are accumulating significantly, with high imports and current inventories. Domestic supply is expected to return, and traditional demand will enter the peak season. Attention should be paid to whether demand can support after the return of domestic supply. If inventories deteriorate significantly, methanol's valuation may decline [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers and coal - chemical enterprises are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. Basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China for 09 contracts. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating, with LD weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [7]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis of 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants are seasonally overhauled in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. Near - end export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide's profit is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. PVC's comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [7]. 3. Summary by Category Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 21 - 27, 2025,动力煤期货 price remained at 801. Coastal spot prices and domestic converted - to - futures prices showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2310 to 2260, and the Northwest converted - to - futures price increased from 2670 to 2683 and then decreased to 2663. Import profit and盘面MTO profit remained unchanged at 6 and - 1237 respectively. The daily change on August 27 showed a decrease in some prices such as a 15 - point drop in Jiangsu spot price and a 22 - point drop in South China spot price [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From August 21 - 27, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 830 on August 21 - 22 and then increased to 840. Prices of different types of polyethylene in different regions showed fluctuations. For example, the North China LL price increased from 7230 to 7270, and the East China LD price increased from 9500 to 9625. The daily change on August 27 showed a 40 - point drop in East China LL price and a 38 - point drop in the main futures price [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From August 21 - 27, 2025, Shandong propylene price increased from 6450 to 6540. Prices of different types of polypropylene in different regions also fluctuated. For example, the East China PP price increased from 6950 to 6985 and then decreased to 6950. The daily change on August 27 showed a 90 - point increase in Shandong propylene price and a 35 - point drop in East China PP price [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 21 - 27, 2025, Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2200 to 2350, and Shandong caustic soda price increased from 867 to 887. Prices of different production methods and regions of PVC showed certain fluctuations. For example, the calcium - carbide - based East China price decreased from 4850 to 4810. The daily change on August 27 showed a 30 - point drop in the calcium - carbide - based East China price [7].
永安期货焦炭日报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 03:14
Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2025 - Author: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Key Points Price Information - The latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1535.94, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 54.61, a monthly increase of 163.84, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.96% [2] - The latest price of Hebei quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1780.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 185.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.05% [2] - The latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1715.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 165.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.28% [2] - The latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1755.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 165.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.03% [2] - The latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1180.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 100.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% [2] Production and Capacity Utilization - The blast furnace operating rate is 90.25, with a weekly increase of 0.03, a monthly decrease of 0.56, and a year - on - year increase of 5.04% [2] - The daily average pig iron output is 240.75, with a weekly increase of 0.09, a monthly decrease of 1.48, and a year - on - year increase of 7.26% [2] - The coking capacity utilization rate is 74.13, with a weekly increase of 0.38, a monthly increase of 1.23, and a year - on - year increase of 2.33% [2] - The daily average coke output is 51.63, with a weekly decrease of 0.04, a monthly decrease of 1.47, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.20% [2] Inventory Information - The coking plant inventory is 39.47, with a weekly increase of 0.16, a monthly decrease of 10.65, and a year - on - year decrease of 15.82% [2] - The port inventory is 214.62, with a weekly decrease of 0.49, a monthly increase of 16.49, and a year - on - year increase of 12.24% [2] - The steel mill inventory is 609.59, with a weekly decrease of 0.21, a monthly decrease of 30.39, and a year - on - year increase of 13.52% [2] - The steel mill inventory days are 10.76, with a weekly decrease of 0.07, a monthly decrease of 0.69, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.46% [2] Futures Information - The price of futures contract 05 is 1768, with a daily decrease of 38.50, a weekly decrease of 4.00, a monthly increase of 50.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.54% [2] - The price of futures contract 09 is 1608, with a daily decrease of 28.00, a weekly decrease of 16.00, a monthly decrease of 4.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.76% [2] - The price of futures contract 01 is 1681, with a daily decrease of 37.00, a weekly increase of 2.00, a monthly increase of 16.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.27% [2] - The basis of contract 05 is 66.35, with a daily increase of 38.50, a weekly increase of 57.35, a monthly increase of 120.29, and a year - on - year increase of 87.12 [2] - The basis of contract 09 is 226.35, with a daily increase of 28.00, a weekly increase of 69.35, a monthly increase of 174.79, and a year - on - year increase of 157.12 [2] - The basis of contract 01 is 153.35, with a daily increase of 37.00, a weekly increase of 51.35, a monthly increase of 154.29, and a year - on - year increase of 135.62 [2] - The spread between contracts 5 - 9 is - 87.00, with a daily increase of 1.50, a weekly increase of 6.00, a monthly decrease of 34.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 48.50 [2] - The spread between contracts 9 - 1 is 160.00, with a daily decrease of 10.50, a weekly increase of 12.00, a monthly increase of 54.50, and a year - on - year increase of 70.00 [2] - The spread between contracts 1 - 5 is - 73.00, with a daily increase of 9.00, a weekly decrease of 18.00, a monthly decrease of 20.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.50 [2]
永安期货焦煤日报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 03:04
| | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1505.00 | 0.00 | 52.00 | 94.00 | 7.50% Peak Downs | 201.00 | 0.00 | -4.50 | 10.00 | -12.50 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 978.00 | -7.00 | 42.00 | -22.00 | -14.21% Goonyella | 203.00 | 0.00 | -5.80 | 10.00 | -10.50 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1380.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 160.00 | -17.37% 盘面05 | 1204.00 | -37.50 | -5.50 | -60.50 | -9.03% | | 安泽主焦 | 1470.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.00 | -10.91% 盘面09 | 1025.00 | -33 ...